With Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) dealing with a high ankle sprain,
Elliott is in line for a lot of work Thursday night. He logged
21 combined touches for 92 yards in a relief role against the
Chargers this past Sunday, and he figures to be the focal point
of the offense on a short week. Obviously, this isn’t the Elliott
of days gone, but he has been used sparingly for much of 2023
and should have fresh legs. James Conner (25-105-2) had good success
running on the Steelers in Week 13, and he’s hardly the fleetest
of foot. Elliott at least looks like an RB3 with some upside.
Parker (knee) is questionable with a knee injury, but if he suits
up Thursday night, he should be WR1 as Demario Douglas (concussion),
the team’s leading receiver, remains sidelined with a concussion
after he missed Sunday’s loss to LA. With Douglas out of action,
Parker was Bailey Zappe’s primary read, catching four of nine
targeted passes for 64 yards, leading the team in all three categories.
If you’re in need you could roll the dice on the former first-round
pick as a flex.
Fade: N/A
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Over his last five games, Warren is averaging 97 total yards
per game and has scored a pair of touchdowns. All that has come
while splitting touches with Najee Harris (knee), but Harris is
dealing with a knee issue, so even if he’s active Thursday night
he might be in for a reduced workload. Plus, the insertion of
Mitchell Trubisky into the starting lineup could lead to a heavier
emphasis on the ground game in general, especially against the
Pats, which have trouble scoring -- that could lead to Pittsburgh
going very conservative in the belief New England can’t beat them
if they take care of the ball. Warren is a possible RB2 here.
In Trubisky’s five starts a season ago, Johnson was the
team’s leading receiver in four of them, averaging 7.4 receptions
for 75.2 yards per game. For whatever reason, Johnson has always
had the better chemistry with Trubisky than George Pickens, who
has been Pittsburgh’s leading receiver recently. We’ll
see how much the Steelers even decide to throw the ball, however,
given Trubisky’s well-documented issues with ball security.
As a WR3, Johnson could pay dividends.
The Carolina Panthers are the NFC’s version of the New England
Patriots. For most of this season, the Patriots have been Rhamondre
Stevenson and a whole bunch of un-startable players. That’s what
the Panthers are now basically with Hubbard playing the role of
Stevenson. Does Hubbad have a great match-up this week? Not really.
The Saints rank 11th in fewest points given up to opposing running
backs. But, Hubbard is about the only game in town at this point
and has 196 yards gained and 3 touchdowns in his last two games.
That makes him the new Rhamondre Stevenson.
If Hubbard has had a partner in crime in terms of fantasy production
the past two weeks, it would be Mingo. After mostly quiet games
this season as a rookie, Mingo has been targeted 16 times the
past two weeks and has hauled in 10 of those targets for 60+ yards
both weeks. That doesn’t make a world beater. I’m
not sure it even makes him a flex option. What it does mean, seemingly,
is that the Panthers want to see what they’ve got in the
young receiver going forward and are feeding him the ball as a
result. I would expect plenty of targets in this game once again,
if nothing else.
The shine is officially off of Adam Thielen as he has gone from
being an early season top-10 overall fantasy WR to falling out
of the top-20. Defenses seem to know he’s the primary threat in
the passing game and have found it easy to take him out of commission.
It’s been 8 weeks since he last caught a touchdown pass or had
75 or more receiving yards in a game. That’s the very definition
of fading. As for Young and Sanders, I hope they have been out
of your lineup for some time or never in it in the first place.
David Tepper needs to find a good offensive coach for this team
and then leave him alone to do his job.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
As of this writing, Hill is listed as Questionable, but it’s
probably because he’s sore from all the things he did last week.
Namely, he ran the ball a season-high 13 times and nearly gained
60 yards while scoring a rushing touchdown. What other TE does
that? The ultimate swiss army knife, Hill’s value has never been
higher with the Saints not getting much return on investment from
Jamaal Williams and Derek Carr getting clobbered each and every
game behind a shaky offensive line. If Hill plays this week, he’s
a must start. And, you can’t judge him by how the Panthers normally
match up with tight ends as his game is so unique that there’s
no stat that can be used to predict outcomes.
Olave has been targeted 111 times now this season and has averaged
109 yards receiving during the past three weeks. The primary concern
I have is that they won’t need much from him to control the game.
If Jameis Winston ends up being the starter, I think it will be
a heavy dose of Alvin Kamara and Hill (see above) on the ground
with some safe throws underneath thrown in. Even if Carr is a
go, the Saints will look to get the ball out of his hands quickly
to protect him. Olave’s production of late is too hard to ignore,
so he’ll start for most teams. I’m just not sure he’ll hit the
target share and yardage managers are used to in recent weeks.
In the lackluster NFC South, the Saints are still very much alive
for the division title and a playoff berth. As such, they’ll take
few chances in this game as they know they can beat the Panthers
easily by avoiding turnovers and playing solid defense. Not a
recipe for an aerial assault and when you consider that Carolina
is ranked 1st in fewest points surrendered to opposing QBs, you
have further fade validation.
It feels wrong not to have Kupp as a no-brainer, but his recent
production simply no longer warrants it. The former Offensive
Player of the Year hasn’t topped 50 yards in a game since
Oct. 15 versus the Cardinals, and he’s scored just once
in his last six games. If you want to view things as glass half-full,
Kupp continues to be involved, being targeted 38 times in that
six-game stretch -- in fairness, the number is more accurate as
37 times in five games since he was injured on his lone reception
against Seattle, which works out to 7.4 targets/game. If LA decides
to lean on its most established weapon against a tough defense,
Kupp could have a busy day.
After tossing nine touchdown passes over his first nine games
of 2023, Stafford has tossed seven TDs in his last two to help
propel LA back into the playoff chase. That’s the good news.
The bad news is that the Ravens are arguably the toughest pass
defense in the NFL. They rank second in yardage (171.7 yards/game),
and first in TD passes allowed (10), and they’re one of
just two teams with more INTs (11) than TDs allowed. It’s
going to be an uphill battle for Stafford to generate QB1 numbers.
Bench him if you can.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
In their first game without go-to TE Mark Andrews (ankle), Flowers
led the team with eight targets and scored both of their touchdowns
-- one on a pass, and the other on a 37-yard run. With a week
off to get healthy and make tweaks to the gameplan, look for the
Ravens to cook up some new ways to get Flowers involved. He’s
been the best wideout on the team for most of the season. Expect
that to continue in Week 14 and plug him into your lineup as a
WR2/WR3.
When we last saw the Ravens, Mitchell was the team’s leading
rusher with a team-high 64 yards on nine carries (that was second
to Jackson) while Edwards carried the ball eight times for 26
yards against the Chargers. It was the continuation of a downturn
in Edwards’ usage as he averaged a modest nine carries per
game over his last four. The veteran has stayed playable due to
his red-zone exploits with five TDs during that span, but the
erosion of touches is still a concern. Mitchell, meanwhile, has
become a bigger part of the offense since his 138-yard explosion
versus Seattle back in Week 9. With the carry split a mystery,
Mitchell and Edwards are both best viewed as flex candidates with
decent upside.
Generally speaking, the more that the Colts have asked of Minshew,
the worse it has gone. Call it the law of diminishing returns.
That wasn’t the case in Week 13, though, as Minshew passed for
312 yards and 2 TDs in an overtime win in Tennessee. Cincy offers
an enticing matchup for him to build on. The Bengals rank 27th
in pass defense (254.3 yards/game) and just played in overtime
on Monday night. That’s a quick turnaround, and it might help
Minshew deliver QB1 numbers as Jonathan Taylor (thumb) is set
to miss another game this Sunday.
Downs looked to be ascending before suffering a knee injury on
Nov. 5. In three games since then, he’s managed a combined 10
catches for 97 yards. Further limiting his outlook among fantasy
owners will doubtless be the 100-yard effort from Alec Pierce
last Sunday while Downs posted a 3-14-0 line. The rookie has solid
potential, though, and working behind Pierce could certainly be
nothing more than an outlier. Facing that same shaky Bengals secondary,
Downs could deliver from a flex slot.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Back after missing three games with a hamstring injury, Higgins
checked in with a modest line of three catches for 36 yards. Don’t
be dissuaded. It was his first game action with Jake Browning,
and you’d think the Colts will focus a lot of attention on slowing
down Chase after his 11-149-1 outburst in Jacksonville. Higgins
is among the NFL’s most talented No. 2 receivers, and with Browning
looking more capable than most expected, the wideout could be
worth a try as your WR3.
Raise your hand if you thought Browning would throw for over 350
yards Monday night against one of the AFC’s better clubs. Liars.
The 27-year-old surprised everyone with his accuracy and poise
in an upset win over Jacksonville, and it reinvigorated Cincinnati’s
flagging playoff hopes. As tempting as it might be to advocate
for Browning as a fringe QB1 type heading into Week 14, understand
that there’s significant risk. The Bengals still very much had
the element of surprise in what was Browning’s second start, and
as teams get more film, they’ll have a better idea of how to stop
him.
It appears unlikely that Trevor Lawrence (ankle) will be physically
able to make a start six days after sustaining a high ankle sprain
on MNF. Christian Kirk (core) is also set to miss time with an
injury. That slides C.J. Beathard into a starting role for the
first time since late in the 2020 campaign with San Francisco.
He’s made a dozen career starts, so he shouldn’t be terrible,
which is potentially good news for Ridley and Jones, who should
fill the top two receiver roles ahead of Parker Washington. Ridley
has been up and down in his first season back following a year-long
suspension, while Jones has missed a good chuck of 2023 with a
knee injury. Ridley could be used as a WR3 whereas Jones is more
of a desperation flex play.
Fade: N/A
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Although he did catch a TD pass from Joe Flacco last weekend,
Ford actually had three fewer carries than Kareem Hunt (groin)
and was far less effective. The team’s decreased usage of Ford
has made little sense -- he is averaging a solid 4.2 YPC on the
season, in comparison to Hunt’s 3.3 -- but perhaps a groin injury
to Hunt will result in an increased workload for the young back.
Jacksonville has some pass rushers, most notably Josh Allen, that
will want to get after the immobile Flacco. Look for Cleveland
to try to use the ground game to slow them down. Ford is a worthwhile
risk as an RB3.
With Amari Cooper (concussion) knocked from the game last Sunday,
Moore was the primary receiver for Flacco. He was targeted 12
times, twice as many as anyone else, and finished with 83 yards
on four receptions. If Cooper can’t clear the league protocol,
Moore could be thrust into that lead role once again. In that
scenario, Moore can be used as a WR3. If Cooper is up, Moore falls
back into flex territory.
It’s a bit of an odd time for Goff. In terms of yardage
and touchdowns, the veteran has been solid over the last three
games, throwing for 781 yards and 6 TDs. You’d be hard pressed
to say he’s played well, however, turning the ball over
six times in Weeks 11 and 12, which is perhaps why he threw a
season-low 25 passes in Week 13. He faced the Bears during that
stretch, finishing the day with 236 yards, 2 TDs, and 3 INTs,
and that was in the dome. On the road, in the elements, it’s
not hard to envision Goff doing a lot of turning around and handing
the ball off. He’d be a dicey pick as your QB1.
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Although he caught just three passes for 20 yards when the Bears
faced the Lions back in Week 11, the tight end has been targeted
seven or more times four times in his last five games. That includes
seven receptions for 43 yards versus Minnesota before the bye,
which was second on the team in both categories. New Orleans found
some success from the tight end position, including a touchdown
from 57-year-old Jimmy Graham, so there are some encouraging signs
for Kmet’s prospects this week. You can pencil him in as a low-end
TE1.
What we know: the Bears like to run the ball. What we don’t
know: how the Bears will distribute the carries. In their previous
meeting, Herbert (16-35-0) led the way, followed by Johnson (6-30-0),
and Foreman (6-14-1), but that was the game Foreman injured his
ankle, so it’s unclear what the original plan was. Before
the bye, it was Johnson (10-35-0) that led the way with Herbert
(6-24-0) in the complementary role -- Foreman was inactive with
the ankle injury. Now, coming out of the bye, and with all three
healthy, it’ll be interesting to see how Chicago mixes and
matches. Playing any of the backs as more than a flex seems risky,
though based on year-to-date performance the guess here is that
Foreman sees the most opportunities.
The Falcons are difficult to run on (2nd in fewest fantasy points
allowed to RBs), which means the Buccaneers, who don’t boast
a good YPC anyway, will find themselves in plenty of second and
long scenarios this Sunday. Falcons games are also low scoring,
typically, but what Mayfield has established with Mike Evans at
this point is truly special. Look for him to take several deep
shots to Evans and hit on at least two of them. Does that make
him a fantasy gold mine this week? No. Does it make him a borderline
starter able to fill-in for your usual starter who’s injured?
Yes. Yes, it does.
Few players in fantasy football have been more reliable than
White over the past seven weeks. Over that stretch, he’s
had 98 total yards or more in six of seven games and found the
end zone five times. He’s also had 15 or more touches in
all of those games with 20 or more in four of them. The concern
for White this week is what was noted above with respect to Mayfield.
Atlanta stops the run well and White is only averaging 3.6 yards
per carry to begin with. Last time he faced the Falcons (Week
7), he did most of his damage as a receiver (6-65). That’s
where his hope lies this time around as well.
If Chris Godwin hadn’t rushed for a touchdown last weekend, it
would have been a completely lost effort for him as he didn’t
catch a pass on only 3 targets. In the past five games, he’s barely
averaging 30 yards receiving over that span and that simply isn’t
good enough to warrant starting consideration, even as a flex
option. As for Otton, he didn’t even get a target last week. This
offense is the White and Evans show and it’s a formula that Mayfield
and the Buccaneers seem content to hold to moving forward.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
I know this selection is a little bit out of left field, but
London is due for a solid performance after laying another egg
last weekend (1 catch, 8 yards). Enter Tampa Bay who rank bottom
five in terms of fantasy points surrendered to wide receivers.
Conventional wisdom suggests this game will feature lots of rushing,
but in actuality, both teams stop the rush really well. And, yes,
I know who is throwing London the ball. It’s the same guy
who was able to connect with him six times the last time these
two teams played. If you’re looking for a WR1 or WR2, keep
looking. But, if you’re looking for a flex play, London
is worth a shot.
The last time these two teams played, Pitts caught 3 balls for
47 yards. Isn’t that his total every single week? I can’t
think of a single player over the past three seasons who teases
us more with his potential and then is so pedestrian in game action.
Pitts gets just enough looks (5.5 targets a game) to make him
a borderline starter week in and week out and he also averages
nearly 12 yards a reception when he does catch it. But, if ever
there were a perpetual fence sitter week in and week out, Pitts
would (sadly) be that guy.
Maybe Trevor Lawrence is your usual starting quarterback. Maybe
it was once Deshaun Watson or Joe Burrow. Or, maybe you’ve been
relying on Kyler Murray or Sam Howell in recent weeks. The latter
two are on bye this week and the former trio are injured, of course,
which is the only path towards even giving Ridder a second look.
Avoid giving him a third look, though. His average of 169 passing
yards per game puts him at the bottom of the barrel in that category.
As for Allgeier, after a promising start to the season, he’s been
phased out thanks to Bijan Robinson. After all, 2/3 of his TDs
on the season came in Week One vs. the Panthers.
Tank Dell’s injury is undoubtedly a big hit to the Texans’ offense,
but there’s also no denying that it significantly increases both
the fantasy floor and ceiling for his teammate Nico Collins. Collins
saw a season-high 44 percent target share and caught a season-high
nine passes in Week 13, while delivering a monstrous 191-yard
performance along with a touchdown. We know that the Jets secondary
is one that we typically want to avoid as they’re by far the stingiest
group in the league when it comes to conceding points to wide
receivers, but Collins’ target share is just too strong to look
past right now. Collins is firmly in the high-end WR2 conversation,
but may soon find himself as a weekly WR1 in better matchups if
this type of usage continues.
Likely rookie of the year C.J. Stroud has been a reliable fantasy
QB1 most weeks this season, but this particular matchup against
the Jets makes him a little more shaky than normal. The Jets have
given up just three multi-passing-touchdown games to an opposing
quarterback all season and two of those came against Dak Prescott
and Josh Allen. Stroud is providing enough of a floor to make
him a low-end QB1 play even in difficult matchups like this, but
his ceiling is much more limited in this game than it will be
in others.
While the Jets have been excellent against opposing passing games
this season, they’ve been nearly equally as bad against
opposing running games, having conceded the seventh-most fantasy
points per game to the position on the year. This would normally
make the running back facing them an obvious fantasy starter and
perhaps even an RB1, but the Houston backfield has just been too
split to really have confidence in either player. Singletary had
seen at least 50 percent of the team’s carries in every
game since Week 9, but that fell off dramatically this past week
when he surprisingly carried the ball on just 29 percent of the
Texans’ rushing plays. This marked the first time since
Week 6 that Dameon Pierce has out-carried Singletary in a game.
While Singletary remains by far the preferred passing-down back
and thus the better fantasy play between the two, neither player
is reliable enough right not to be trusted in the RB2 range. Sure,
we may need to start them in the Flex in tough situations, but
this is a much worse fantasy situation than it was even just a
few weeks ago.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Garrett Wilson’s disappointing Week 13 game against the
Falcons saw him catch just three of the seven targets that came
his way for only 50 yards - his second sub-double-digit fantasy
performance over the past three weeks. Normally this trend would
mean that we’d be putting a player in the “On the
Fence” category or perhaps even the “Fade” category,
but the reality is that the peripheral numbers remained strong
for Wilson as he still managed a 24 percent target share in what
just ended up being an extremely low-scoring game. This week,
the Jets face a Texans team that has shown the ability to light
up the scoreboard, which would presumably force the Jets to pass
the ball much more than they did in Week 13. It might not be pretty,
but Wilson should see enough usage to get back to being a WR2
this week.
It’s hard to sugar-coat the way things have gone for Breece
Hall as of late. Sure, he’s managed to score double-digit
fantasy points in eight straight games, but he’s failed
to reach even 12 PPR fantasy points in four of his past five games,
including this past week’s game against the Falcons which
saw him carry the ball 13 times for just 16 yards. We’ve
always known that Hall is a big play specialist and a lack of
big plays can sometimes lead to some ugly end-of-game numbers,
but this is truly getting concerning as he’s now finished
with fewer than 40 rushing yards in eight of his 12 games this
season. With just two rushing scores to his name, the only thing
that’s helped Hall remain fantasy-relevant has been his
passing game usage which has remained impressive despite the Jets’
terrible quarterback play. With the Texans being road favorites
in this game, there’s a decent chance that the Jets could
end up having to pass the ball quite a bit this week, which should
lead to some easy dump-off receptions for Hall.
The Jets have announced that they’re going back to quarterback
Zach Wilson this week, which reportedly was met with apprehension
from the former first-round draft pick who was frustrated with
having been benched for Tim Boyle. This situation is extraordinarily
toxic and it’s very difficult to imagine that things are suddenly
going to turn around. Wilson hasn’t been a good fantasy QB this
season and he’s a must-avoid against the Texans.
The 49ers have a stellar defense, but their corners are more
solid than great and the fact that the Niners opponents are throwing
from behind early and often means wideouts can rack up volume
against them.
Metcalf and Lockett have uneven, and reasonably underwhelming
seasons, so far (No.19 and No.38 in FPts/G, respectively). Metcalf
wasn’t performing as much more than a WR4 this year before
blowing up last week for 134 yards and 3 touchdowns. That being
said, the signs were there recently, as he’s now had 94
or more receiving yards in three of the last four weeks. Lockett
meanwhile, has had three different weeks with at least 18 points,
but has otherwise generally been quiet.
Both receivers are high ceiling candidates against the 49ers
this week, with Metcalf looking like his floor is starting to
firm up. Metcalf looks like a solid WR2 and Lockett a WR3 versus
the Niners.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is coming off what was easily his season high
in targets (11). It was a solid day, but hardly a banner one (7-62-0),
and the rookie wide receiver had just 3 targets the week before.
Still, there are signs of life here, with all four of Smith-Njigba’s
performances of 9 points or greater coming in the last seven games,
and a negative game script coupled with possible absence of Seattle’s
top 2 running backs could lead to another high target total. It’s
a risky play, but desperate owners can certainly see Smith-Njigba
as more than the borderline WR5/6 he’s been thus far.
Geno Smith had his best game of the year last week against a
tough Dallas defense, which might cause owners to jump on board
this week against the 49ers D. Especially with the quarterback
position badly banged up by injuries, Geno does indeed deserve
some thought.
Smith has had his two best performances of the season in the
last month, but it’s important to keep in mind that San
Francisco has allowed just 12 passing touchdowns against 15 interceptions
to opposing quarterbacks. Smith, himself, had just 9.3 points
against this stud defense just two weeks ago. Overall, for the
season, Smith is just 24th in points per game at quarterback and
in a difficult match up, the floor is quite low and it’s
best to look another direction.
Meanwhile, running back Zach Charbonnet is dealing with an injury
(knee) that is already leaving his status in doubt. Even if he
plays, he may be at well less than a hundred percent, which might
not just lead to a reduction in quality of performance, but also
in a loss of touches to DeeJay Dallas. This assuming that Kenneth
Walker (oblique) doesn’t play this week, as well, but Walker’s
return appears unlikely.
Making matters worse, the 49ers have allowed the 3rd fewest points
to the running back position this year, and the Seahawks are going
to be on the road for this contest. This is a situation that is
best to avoid.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
How much needs to be said here? When healthy, the 49ers have
been absolutely rolling over opponents, and the passing game has
been so efficient that every major player in the offense has an
opportunity for a big day. Brock Purdy is 8th among QBs in points,
and Seattle has given up the 12th most points to quarterbacks,
making him an easy start at home.
Meanwhile, Brandon Aiyuk (14.0 FPts/G) and Deebo Samuel (13.6
FPts/G) are WR15 and WR16 in points per game. The Seahawk secondary
has been better than earlier in the season, but still giving up
the 8th most points to wideouts on the year. Aiyuk had 12 points
in San Francisco’s previous match up with Seattle, and Samuel
had 18.9. Expect more of the same this week.
On the Fence: N/A
Update: Elijah
Mitchell is listed as Doubtful with a knee injury.
Even in a recent 31-13 victory over Seattle – who has given
up the 5th most points per game to running backs – Mitchell
only garnered 8 touches and 4.1 points. He’s yet to score
or top 6 points in a game this season, making him an afterthought
in what could be a flexible match up for many other second-string
backs.
Mattison’s season has been a disappointment for many (No.39
in FPts/G), but he’s still seeing enough volume (15 touches
per game over the last five weeks) to have a productive fantasy
day against a vulnerable defense. The Raiders are that vulnerable
defense, certainly when it comes to dealing with opposing running
backs (6th most points per game allowed to opposing RBs). That
makes Mattison a solid RB2 this week.
As covered on FFToday earlier this week, Joshua Dobbs is getting
another shot to start this week. He’ll have the skillset of Justin
Jefferson available – presumably at 100% after he took special
care in the healing process – in addition to emergent rookie Jordan
Addison and stellar possession tight end T.J. Hockenson. Dobbs
has produced QB1 efforts at times for both the Vikings and the
Cardinals, and his mobility helps in those prospects. Having Jefferson
on hand only increases the odds that Dobbs can come through against
a middling Raiders defense. The risk, aside from the fact that
Dobbs is a journeyman, is that the Vikings considered benching
Dobbs earlier this week, meaning a slow start could get him benched
and cost fantasy managers vying for a playoff spot.
Jordan Addison, meanwhile, has fallen off since the arrival of
Dobbs, ranked just No.50 in points per game among wide receivers
over the last five weeks. It had already been presumed that Jefferson’s
return would bite into Addison’s value, so the prospects
are not great for Addison going forward.
On the other hand, Addison might get more open with Jefferson
back and drawing the toughest coverage, meaning the weak-armed
Dobbs may actually connect more frequently with Addison going
forward. In short, the situation with Addison is really up in
the air. Don’t give up on him, by any means, but he’s
worth sitting and watching for now.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Davante Adams is getting to WR1 / 2 status on volume as expected.
He’s not going to be an elite option when hampered by the
QB situation in Las Vegas, but 33 targets over the last three
weeks still proves he’s a must start.
The Vikings have given up the 12th most points to wide receivers,
and most notably have surrendered the 4th most receptions. This
is good news for possession receivers such as Jakobi Meyers.
Meyers sprung back to life in Week 12 going 6-79-1 (2 yards rushing).
This was following a modest effort the week before 4-49-0. Aidan
O'Connell may be getting more comfortable throwing to Meyers,
and that gives him a decent shot at a solid week against the Vikings
secondary.
Hunter Renfrow's continued re-emergence sans Josh McDaniels leaves
the situation a bit cloudy. They may not be enough room for both
Meyers and Renfrow to put up fantasy worthy numbers regularly,
even with the Raiders likely being in the negative game script.
Renfrow now has a perfect 9 receptions on 9 targets over his last
two games, easily his best production of the season and his role
could continue to grow. Notably, his snap involvement has started
to increase (44 and 48 percent the last two weeks).
Meyers is more likely to see a meaningful bite of the apple right
now, but Renfrow's involvement does put a crimp in Meyers upside,
even against and Vikings defense that surrenders a lot of open
looks in the short and intermediate field. Meyers is reasonably
a WR3/4 this week, and Renfrow an option for deeper leagues.
Aidan O'Connell has yet to throw more than 1 touchdown in a game,
despite having appeared in six games and attempted at least 25
passes in five of them. He also threw 3 picks two weeks ago versus
Miami, and separately has had a three-fumble outing, as well.
He has 6 picks and 4 fumbles thus far, and with just one 250+
yard passing performance, there isn’t much room for error
in his game.
While the Vikings have only been middling against opposing QBs,
they also won’t help him much, and O’Connell seems to need a lot
of help at this point. To make matters worse, the biggest vulnerability
for the Vikes against quarterbacks has been stopping their legs
(260 rushing yards allowed and 3 rushing TDs). O’Connell has just
9 rushing yards since taking over for the also immobile Jimmy
Garoppolo. O’Connell is reasonably a QB3, so not a particularly
solid option even for those in deeper leagues.
The Chiefs has been respectable against opposing wide receivers
(18th most FPts/G allowed), but more often than not it’s been
an opponent’s number 2 receiver that has hurt them more than opposing
WR1’s. Some recent examples include Josh Palmer (15.6 pts, Wk
7), Jerry Jeudy (12.0 pts, Wk 8), DeVonta Smith (12.9 pts, Wk
11) and Jakobi Meyers (17.1 points, Wk 12). Gabe Davis is no DeVonta
Smith, but it’s far to argue that he’s in the class of Palmer
and Jeudy, and perhaps even Meyers. This is a good spot for Davis
to be fired up as a flex.
Cook has been a borderline RB2 this year (11.5 FPts/G). He is
versatile, providing usage as both a runner and receiver, but
he has just 3 touchdowns and with Allen (9 rushing TDs) and veteran
grinder Latavius Murray (also 3 touchdowns) ripping chunks out
of Cook’s goal line opportunities, that’s not due for much improvement.
Further inhibiting his ceiling will be a Chiefs defense that has
given up just 5 touchdowns to running backs all year. Being on
the road really cements Cooks as just a RB3 this week.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs have allowed just one tight end to reach
double figures all season - Gerald Everett, Week 7. He barely
got there (10.1 points), and no other tight end has reached the
mark. If another tight end is going to put a mark on the Chiefs
defense, Dalton Kincaid is among the few to do it. The rookie
1st rounder is has at least 5 receptions in each of the last six
weeks, and has entered the top 12 in points per game at the position.
It’s a difficult match up that looks to have a low ceiling, so
it’s wise to consider whether you need more of a ceiling or a
floor from your tight end this week before rolling with Kincaid.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
It’s not quite official, but Rashee Rice may have locked
in his role as Mahomes’ go-to wide receiver. He’s
been solid, especially in the red zone, since the start of the
year and as a result has seen his snap rate reach new highs (69%
last week). The targets and yardage have both exploded in the
last two weeks (19 targets, 171 yards) another indication that
his route tree is growing and that both Andy Reid and Mahomes
are recognizing Rice as a vital part of the offense.
The Bills haven’t had a ton of answers for opposing receivers
since losing Tre’Davious White, and for the year have given
up the 11th most points to the position. This is a good matchup
for a player that is quickly moving towards WR2 territory.
Pacheco has been a mid-to-high end RB2 this season, and he’ll
draw a Bills defense that is okay but hardly exceptional against
the run (13th most points allowed to opposing backs). Home field,
a surprisingly neutered Bills team, and December weather all bode
well for Pacheco reaching the thick side of the 13.1 points per
game he’s averaged this season.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: Other Chiefs wide receivers
On the target tree for Kansas City, it’s Kelce-Rice-Pacheco,
and anyone else is a distance 4th, 5th and so on. Three weeks
ago, Justin Watson had 11 targets (he only turned out 53 yards).
Since then, he’s essentially disappeared. Marquez Valdes-Scantling
is the only Chiefs receiver besides Rice to see more than 3 targets
in the last two weeks. He saw 5 and produced 25 yards. It’s
possible that someone has a good day among this “rest of”
group if a shootout develops, but it’s not just unlikely
but impossible to say who.
Courtland Sutton has been the brightest spot in the Broncos offense
this season, and even in an inefficient performance last week,
he reeled in a long touchdown – his 9th. Against a Chargers
secondary that has been torched by opposing wide receivers (3rd
most points allowed, Sutton is easily a high end WR2 this week.
Since getting mauled by opposing quarterbacks through the season’s
first month and a half – having given up at least 25 points to
QB’s in five of six games – the Chargers woes versus the position
have calmed a bit. No quarterback has surpassed the 25-point mark
against them since, and only Jordan Love and Jared Goff have broken
the 20-point mark. Of course, the Chargers have faced the likes
of Tyson Bagent, Zach Wilson and Bailey Zappe during this time
but that didn’t stop them from being a wet paper bag earlier in
the year (21 points for Ryan Tannehill during Week 2 and a season
high 15.8 for Aidan O’Connell during Week 4). It’s also notable
that the Chargers recently held Lamar Jackson to 15 points. In
short, it’s not impossible to imagine Russell Wilson having a
QB1 performance against the Chargers, but the league’s No.18 QB
could also easily have his typical QB2 day.
The Chargers defense against wide receivers this year (or lack
there-of) may be enough to consider starting Jeudy. Most recently,
Zay Flowers had a season high performance and – although far more
modestly – DeVante Parker came close. In Week 11, Jayden Reed,
Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks all had double-digit point performances
and Christian Watson just missed out (9.2 points). Jeudy has at
least 50 yards receiving in seven outings this year, but his season
high of 81 came all the way back on September 24th. He’s also
failed to reach 20 yards receiving twice this year. The lack of
ceiling and Jeudy’s occasional disappearing act this year make
this match up far less exciting than it could be, but if you’re
in a pinch you could do worse than Jeudy against the Chargers.
The Chargers defense has been more respectable against running
backs than receivers, and honestly, outside of a game against
Detroit where their front seven had no shot against the Lions,
they’ve been pretty good. Montgomery and Gibbs are the only
backs to get more than 11.5 points against the Chargers over the
last six weeks.
Denver, like most teams, can’t quite bring the physicality
that the Lions can. Javonte Williams still doesn’t have
a rushing touchdown, which can only further emphasize this point.
At 9.1 points per game for the season, just 38th among running
backs, it’s not a great spot for Javonte. Still, with at
least twenty touches in three of his last five starts, he’s
worth flex consideration, no matter how unexciting he may be right
now.
Fade: N/A
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
At 12.6 points per game, Ekeler has played the part of a mid-level
RB2 this season. It’s not even close to what those who drafted
him in the early 1st round expected, and one thing that is hitting
real hard this season is touchdown regression (just 5 this season).
Enter the Broncos. They’ve given up the 4th most touchdowns
to opposing running backs (10 on the ground and 4 through the
air), have given up the 2nd most rushing yards to backs and the
8th most receiving yards to the position. The are a weekly dream
matchup, and Ekeler should at least feel like the player he was
expected to be for this match up.
Nico Collins outburst against the Broncos secondary last week
(9-191-1) was the first time any wide receiver put up more than
10 points against them since week 4 (D.J. Moore). Keenan Allen
is certainly capable of producing in the realm of Collins or Moore,
but Quentin Johnston hasn’t reached that place just yet.
It was encouraging to see him reel in 5 catches for 52 yards on
7 targets last week, but those 52 yards represent a modest season
high and he’s scored just 1 touchdown despite his size (6’4).
It still doesn’t appear to be time for Johnston, especially
not against the Broncos.
Jalen Hurts was pulled during Philadelphia’s blowout loss
to San Francisco this past week and that has some fantasy managers
concerned about the situation going forward. Fear not, though
- this should be a nice bounce-back week for Hurts and the entire
Eagles offense as they face a Cowboys defense that just got lit
up by Geno Smith and the Seahawks. Hurts himself has now rushed
for an absurd 12 touchdowns this season while adding 19 through
the air, and he’s already had a nice performance against
the Cowboys when these teams played back in Week 9.
DeVonta Smith has been red hot as of late and there are plenty
of reasons to get him back in your lineup as the Eagles face the
Cowboys this week. Smith has scored a touchdown in four of his
past five games, including his Week 9 game against the Cowboys,
but it’s worth noting that he has seen a significant usage increase
with tight end Dallas Goedert sidelined. Goedert is expected back
this week and that will very likely limit Smith’s upside. In fact,
despite scoring the touchdown against Dallas, Smith saw just three
total targets in the game which also happened to be the most recent
game that Goedert played.
Smith could still very well turn in a nice fantasy performance
but understand that we’ve seen his production spike in the
past when Goedert has been sidelined, so don’t be surprised
if he does disappoint a bit here in Week 14.
Eagles running back D’Andre Swift saw a season-low six
carries during his team’s Week 14 loss to the 49ers, marking
the first time that he had not carried the ball at least 10 times
in a game since Week 1. Swift did carry the ball 18 times when
he faced the Cowboys back in Week 9, but it resulted in just a
2.4 yards per carry average and he was held to fewer than 10 PPR
fantasy points in that contest. With the Eagles being as successful
near the goal line with the “tush push” as they have
been, Swift’s touchdown upside is seriously capped and he
hasn’t caught more than three passes in a game since all
the way back in Week 6. He’s not a must-bench given that
we should expect him to see at least 12 touches in this game,
but he could be in for another low-ceiling output.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
The Cowboys’ passing game is absolutely humming as of late
and one of the players who’s been a big beneficiary of that
has been tight end Jake Ferguson. Ferguson caught six passes for
77 yards and a touchdown this past week against the Seahawks,
but perhaps more importantly he had his best fantasy game of the
season thus far when he faced this very same Eagles defense back
in Week 9. Ferguson was targeted a season-high 10 times in that
game, catching seven of them for 91 yards and a touchdown. The
Eagles have given up at least four receptions to an opposing tight
end in five straight games and Ferguson should be a good bet to
extend that streak.
With only two games of more than five targets this season, it’s
tough to strongly recommend Brandin Cooks as a fantasy option,
but it’s also difficult to deny that Dak Prescott’s
recent hot streak has strongly correlated with Cooks getting into
the end zone. Cooks has scored a touchdown in five of his past
seven games, including each of his past two, and he’s consistently
running routes on over 80 percent of the Cowboys’ passing
plays.
The Eagles are by far the worst defense in the NFL at defending
opposing wide receivers this season, so Cooks has to be in the
conversation for a Flex play this week. He might even be a “favorite”
if he hadn’t been held to one reception for seven yards
when these teams played back in Week 9.
Cowboys running back Tony Pollard has now scored a touchdown
in three straight games and he’s finally delivering on the
pre-season hype that the fantasy football community had given
him. However, his matchup against the Eagles this week is not
one that fantasy managers should be getting too hyped up about,
as Philadelphia is the second-stingiest defense in the league
when it comes to giving up fantasy points to opposing running
backs. Pollard himself was held to 12 carries for 53 yards and
added just one catch when these teams played back in Week 9.
His recent hot streak and goal-line usage in a high-powered offense
means that he’s not likely to be benched by many fantasy
managers, but he’s much closer to a Flex play this week
than he is a high-end RB1.
With Christian Watson looking unlikely to suit up on Monday night,
the Packers are back in the situation they were in earlier this
season when Romeo Doubs was producing like a borderline stud fantasy
WR. We’ve seen other players in the Green Bay offense step
into more prominent roles as the season has gone on, but Doubs
appeared to be back in his role as the Packers’ WR1 when
Watson went down in Week 13. This is significant because the Packers’
wide receivers have an excellent matchup against the Giants’
secondary that has given up the fourth-most fantasy points per
game to opposing wide receivers so far this season. If Doubs can
push for double-digit targets, he is very likely to deliver some
usable fantasy numbers here in Week 14.
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Packers quarterback Jordan
Love has really stepped up over the past few weeks and he’s
now thrown multiple touchdown passes in four straight contests.
Coming off of surprising wins over both the Lions and Chiefs,
Love and the Packers now face a Giants’ team that has all
but given up on the season and can definitely be exploited for
fantasy points. Love will likely be without his top weapon, Christian
Watson, but the Packers have a number of young pass catchers who’ve
shown the ability to make plays this season, so don’t downgrade
him too much just because of Watson’s absence.
One of the young players who’s really stepped up in the
Green Bay offense has been rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed. Reed
may not have the high target share to make him an elite fantasy
weapon, but he’s been very efficient with the touches he’s
been seeing, including on the ground where he’s broken off
a number of long runs in recent weeks. Reed has quietly produced
seven double-digit PPR fantasy games this season and he could
end up seeing a noticeable uptick in targets assuming that Watson
is sidelined.
While the Packers’ passing game has been heating up as
of late, the same unfortunately cannot be said about their running
game. Whether it’s been Aaron Jones or AJ Dillon, the fantasy
numbers just haven’t been there to justify putting either
player into lineups in anything other than very desperate situations.
To make matters worse, both players have an injury designation
at the moment and are questionable to play, even with Jones finally
logging a limited practice on Thursday. If both players are active,
though, expect this to be a committee - and not a good one.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
It’s hard not to feel bad for Saquon Barkley as the running
back has dealt with several injuries and has been stuck with one
of the worst casts of surrounding talent in the league. Still,
he’s managed to produce 13 or more PPR fantasy points in
six of his nine games, including a few week-winning performances
mixed in there, in large part due to his continued production
in the passing game.
Barkley now faces a Green Bay defense that has been a plus matchup
for opposing running backs this season, including having given
up a 110-yard day on the ground to the Chiefs’ Isiah Pacheco
in what ended up being a losing effort. In fact, over their past
four games, opposing teams’ running backs have averaged
over 125 rushing yards against the Packers’ defense. Barkley
is still seeing over 70 percent of his team’s running back
rush attempts per week, so there’s no reason to think that
he won’t provide a safe floor this week along with a nice
ceiling.
Rookie wide receiver Jaylin Hyatt finally flashed the big play
ability that made him a highly-regarded prospect on many big boards
this past draft season, as he caught five passes for 109 yards
and a touchdown the last time we saw him. Hyatt still hasn’t managed
to get into the end zone, though, and the unfortunate reality
is that with Tommy DeVito behind center, there just isn’t a lot
of high-end potential to go around. Even in games where the Giants
were completely blown out on the scoreboard, DeVito still has
not even attempted 30 passes in a single contest. Hyatt saw a
season-high 26 percent target share in his last game, but he had
been held under a double-digit target share in three of his previous
four contests. It’s certainly possible that the Giants’ bye week
allowed them to take a closer look at Hyatt and find ways to incorporate
him more into the offense, but fantasy managers should take a
wait-and-see approach with this situation here in Week 14.
There’s not much to love about this Tennessee offense,
but the recent usage and production from Derrick Henry has reminded
us of the glory days of this former 2,000-yard back. Henry has
carried the ball 39 times for 178 yards and four touchdowns over
his past two games, and it’s getting to the time of the
year when the Titans love to feed him with carries. We’d
prefer if this matchup was in Tennessee as opposed to Miami, but
the Titans will almost certainly give him as many carries as they
can, in hopes of limiting the number of Miami offensive snaps.
They definitely do not want to get into a shootout with this team.
Henry’s an RB1 despite a difficult matchup.
While the Titans have made it clear that they would prefer to
give the ball to Henry 30 times per game if they could, we also
have to be reasonable and understand that there’s a solid
chance that this game gets out of hand on the scoreboard and that
the Titans are forced to throw the ball. If that happens, the
player who benefits the most is certainly wide receiver DeAndre
Hopkins, who saw 12 targets this past week - his most since Week
1. Hopkins converted on five of those passes for 75 yards and
a touchdown. While he’s not a fantasy WR1 anymore, Hopkins
is a solid play against a Miami defense that has given up some
big games to top pass-catchers in opposing offenses this season.
Tennessee tight end Chig Okonkwo has been a huge disappointment
this season, but he is coming off his best fantasy game of the
season which saw him targeted six times, converting three receptions
for 62 yards. The Dolphins were giving up fantasy points to tight
ends at a high rate earlier this season, but that’s cooled
off significantly in recent weeks, as they even held Travis Kelce
to three receptions for 14 yards when they faced the Chiefs in
Week 9. Those searching for tight end streaming options might
be interested that Okonkwo seemed to finally get involved in the
Titans’ passing game this past week but this is a situation
to avoid until we see him doing it on a much more consistent basis.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Achane made his return to the lineup this past week, contributing
103 total yards and two touchdowns in Miami’s dominant victory
over the Commanders. Achane played on 59 percent of the Dolphins’
offensive snaps, compared to teammate Raheem Mostert’s 39 percent,
marking the first time that the rookie had led his team in backfield
snaps since Week 4. We have to assume that Mostert and perhaps
even Jeff Wilson will remain involved, but Achane may be taking
over this backfield yet again and we’ve seen some truly explosive
fantasy performances out of him when he’s been given opportunities.
The Titans are always solid against running backs so this isn’t
a smash matchup or anything, but Achane can turn bad matchups
into good ones with one breakaway run.
Tua Tagovailoa continues to hold onto his QB1 status by a string,
as he turned in a respectable 280-yard, two-touchdown performance
against the Commanders this past week. Of course, his numbers
were a bit subdued given that the Dolphins got ahead on the scoreboard
by such a big margin and thus didn’t need to pass the ball,
but there’s a decent chance that happens again this week
against a bad Titans team. Tua is a solid low-end QB1 or a great
QB2, but don’t expect a huge game from him in this one.
With Tyreek pacing to become the first 2,000-yard receiver in
NFL history, it makes sense that other pass catchers in this Miami
offense have been left in the dust at times. Jaylen Waddle has
been decent enough most weeks, but he has scored just three touchdowns
on the year and he’s only reached 100 yards twice. Still,
his usage remains interesting as he’s been targeted an average
of over eight times per game over his past eight contests. It’s
tough to find that kind of usage in such a high-powered offense,
so Waddle is still probably a mid-level WR2 this week.
Mostert is back on the injury report as he has been nearly every
week this season, but on the bright side, he’s yet to miss
a game. He’s also remained highly productive in what has
been one of the NFL’s best offenses, as he’s now contributed
16 touchdowns on the year. It certainly makes sense to continue
to put him in fantasy lineups given that he’s continued
to produce even in this crowded backfield, but it’s worth
noting that the usage numbers this past week were a bit concerning
as Mostert was on the field for just 39 percent of the Dolphins’
offensive snaps - his lowest number of the year - which coincided
with Achane’s return to the lineup. This could have been,
at least partially, due to the game script which saw the Dolphins
run away from the Commanders on the scoreboard, but that’s
still concerning because fantasy managers are banking on their
running backs producing in those types of game environments. Mostert
is still probably a must-start for most teams given the running
back situation throughout the league, but we could be seeing a
change in the Miami backfield so don’t be too shocked if
he sees significantly fewer snaps than Achane.
