The 49ers keep taken hits. First it was Jimmy Garoppolo (foot)
as now do-everything wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out with an
ankle injury. We should expect the offense to lean on McCaffrey
but a slight bump in targets should be coming for Brandon Aiyuk
who’s put together a solid low-end WR2 fantasy season to date.
Jauan Jennings and Ray-Ray McCloud should round out the top three
options for a banged-up Brock Purdy (ribs) but are down the pecking
order behind McCaffrey, Aiyuk and potentially tight end George
Kittle in the passing game.
Speaking of Kittle, the 49ers tight end has been more miss than
hit lately with reception totals of 3, 2 and 4 his last three
games while failing to crack 30 receiving yards. His last decent
game (4-84-2) was Week 11 against the tight end sieve Arizona
Cardinals. The good news here is that everyone moves up a rung
with Deebo out, and the matchup is juicy against Seattle who’s
given up the fourth-most receiving yards and second-most fantasy
points to the position.
Purdy has landed at QB18 and QB8 in his two games since taking
over for Jimmy G, with his QB8 finish juiced by a rushing TD.
He’s thrown 2 touchdowns in both games and completed passes
at very respectable 70 percent clip. Losing Deebo and playing
in discomfort isn’t a great formula for success even in
a beatable matchup with the Seahawks. The rookie feels more like
a mid-range QB2, lacking QB1 upside.
Fade: N/A
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
The 49ers haven’t made things easy on opposing quarterbacks
with just 12 passing TDs allowed on the season and they limited
Geno to a 197-0-1 line back in Week 2. That said, wide receivers
have had some success against this bunch and the narrow distribution
of targets in the Seattle offense should allow decent days for
DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett. Metcalf has seen double-digit targets
in two of his last three games and Locket has scored in six straight.
Both are riskier plays than normal but should be in your starting
lineup.
Walker missed Week 14 with what Pete Carroll described as a "jammed
ankle" which forced Travis Homer into a lead role, playing
91% of the snaps against the Panthers. With Walker off the injury
report, we should see him back in his normal role with Homer mixing
in on some passing downs. The 49ers are the worst possible matchup
for running backs this season giving up the fewest rushing yards
(751) and fantasy points to the position. When these two teams
faced off back in Week 2, the Seattle running backs combined for
a 12-23-0, 6-39-0 line. Depending on how deep your bench is, Walker
is someone you’re likely to play, but he’s a risky
RB2 this week given the injury and matchup.
Coming off a 1,000-yard campaign in 2021, Pittman has been a
victim of Indianapolis’ porous quarterback play. The third-year
pro hasn’t topped 100 yards in a game since Oct. 16, and
he has just two touchdowns on the season. If there was ever a
week for Pittman to deliver, though, it’s this one. The
Colts are coming off their bye, and the Vikings are dead last
in pass defense, allowing 287.2 yards per game. They’ll
also be playing on short rest Saturday night. Roll the dice on
Pittman as your No. 3 receiver with respectable upside.
While Ryan has been bad for most of 2022, he has at least flashed
the form that once made him the NFL MVP, most notably passing
for 389 yards and 3 TDs against the Jags in Week 6 and 356 yards
and 2 TDs against Tennessee in Week 4. He hasn’t topped
250 yards in four starts under Jeff Saturday, but the Vikings
do an awful lot of bending, so it wouldn’t be shocking to
see Ryan pile up some yards. Whether he can get the Colts into
the end zone is suspect, but there’s at least a pathway
to value with Ryan this week.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Don’t let the 54 points that Indianapolis allowed before
their bye fool you. They have a solid defense, and that game with
Dallas was 21-19 entering the fourth quarter before the Colts
collapsed under an avalanche of turnovers. For the year, Indy
is one of just four teams allowing fewer than 190 passing yards
per game, and their 32 sacks rank right in the middle of the NFL.
Cousins threw for a season-high 425 yards in Week 14, but it came
in a loss, and the Vikings want a balanced attack. Don’t
view Cousins as more than a fringe QB1 play this Saturday.
Going by seasonal averages, there may not be much production to
go around for any Vikings receiver not named Jefferson. Thielen
is a pure possession target at this stage of his career, averaging
a shade over 10 yards per catch on the year and having topped
70 yards in a game just once. If he finds the end zone, he might
deliver WR3 value, but he has just four of Cousins’ 20 TD
passes on the season. Check your other options before deploying
Thielen as a borderline WR3/flex.
Despite flashing a not-all-that-encouraging gait on a long run,
Dobbins still racked up 120 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries
in his return from IR. Edwards, meanwhile, posted a 13-66-0 line
against the Steelers. The duo split snaps almost down the middle
with Dobbins playing 26 to Edwards 21 -- Kenyan Drake logged 11.
Both figure to be heavily involved in the offense once again in
Week 15, given the team’s ongoing issues with quarterback health
and Cleveland’s well-documented struggles against the run. Still,
when there’s no clear hierarchy, there’s risk, which is where
we find ourselves with Baltimore’s backfield. Relying on Dobbins
or Edwards as more than an RB3 or flex play would be a risky endeavor.
Huntley suffered a concussion last Sunday, and his status for
their Saturday meeting with the Browns is still unknown. He has
cleared the concussion protocol but HC John Harbaugh has declined
to name a starter for Sunday. Even if he plays, however, the Ravens
are likely to take measures to protect Huntley, which could include
fewer designed runs. Given that his running ability is the main
source of his already suspect fantasy appeal, Huntley should be
benched in Cleveland this weekend.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Although Cooper is the more accomplished receiver and gets the
must-start badge, it has been Peoples-Jones that has led Cleveland
in receiving in each of Watson’s first two starts. That includes
an 8-114-0 line against the Bengals during which he was targeted
a dozen times. While the Ravens are among the league leaders in
INTs (14), they also rank 26th in passing yardage allowed (249.2
per game), so there should be room to work for the likes of Cooper,
Njoku, and Peoples-Jones. As a low-end WR3 or flex, DPJ offers
some tangible upside.
Largely abysmal in his first game back, Watson at least flashed
signs of returning to form versus Cincinnati, passing for 276
yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT while adding 33 yards on the ground. The
team still isn’t finishing drives -- 16 offensive points in Watson’s
two starts -- but it feels like progress is being made. As noted
above, the Ravens rank 26th in the league in pass defense, so
there’s some definite upside with Watson. Of course, you’d need
to take a chance on Cleveland performing better in the red zone
against a solid all-around Baltimore defense.
Any hopes that Hunt’s passing-down role would expand with Watson
at quarterback have thus far proved fruitless. He’s played 52
snaps in the last two games, which is actually down from the previous
two-game stretch when he played 64. Hunt did log 11 touches in
Week 13, but he was right back down at six last week. With him
filling a tertiary role these days, Hunt is best parked on your
bench.
Back-to-back down games for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle certainly
has fantasy managers scrambling. The Dolphins wide receiver has
just three receptions over his past two games and now he faces
a Bills defense that has locked up opposing wide receivers over
their own past two contests. If there’s something to be excited
about, though, it should be that Miami will almost certainly need
to air the ball out in order to keep up with the Buffalo offense.
Josh Allen and the Bills haven’t been particularly effective as
of late, but Allen threw for 400 yards when these teams matched
up back in Week 3. Tua Tagovailoa threw the ball just 18 total
times in that contest, which led to just four receptions for Waddle
(which he converted for over 100 yards), but their offense has
certainly become much more pass-focused as the year has gone on.
Look for Waddle to see somewhere between five to eight targets
for the day, which should be enough to give him a decent enough
floor while also providing the high ceiling that we love.
Considered a dark horse MVP candidate just a few weeks ago, Miami
quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has taken a step back in recent contests,
culminating in a truly awful performance this past week against
the Chargers. Tagovailoa has now thrown for just four touchdowns
over his past three games, this coming right after a three-game
stretch in which he threw for three scores in each contest. It’s
completely reasonable to begin questioning whether or not the
Dolphins' offense has been “figured out” by opposing
defenses, but the Miami QB has still been able to avoid turning
in any real stinkers for fantasy, other than due to injury. One
concern for fantasy managers is that this game will take place
in Buffalo where the weather is expected to be cold and snowy,
but it’s also worth noting that, despite some big plays
made by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle throughout the season, the
Miami offense is actually much more of a short-passing game than
they are a long one. This should allow them to continue to run
about the same offense that they’re used to, so don’t
allow that to change your views too much on the Dolphins’
offense here in Week 15.
Much like the offense we saw when he was with the 49ers, Dolphins
head coach Mike McDaniel has been frustrating fantasy managers
with his usage of running backs so far this season. It looked
for a few games like Jeff Wilson was taking over the Miami backfield,
but then suddenly, without warning, the team pivoted back to previous
starter Raheem Mostert over the past two weeks. Even with that
change, though, neither back has been useful for fantasy over
the past two games. They now face a Buffalo defense that ranks
in the top 10 in containing opposing fantasy running backs. The
Bills had a short blip during the middle of the season where they
allowed Aaron Jones and Dalvin Cook to both rush for over 100
yards against them, but otherwise, they’ve held every other opposing
running back they’ve faced to fewer than 80 rushing yards. In
fact, they held the then-Miami backfield of Chase Edmonds and
Mostert to 32 yards on the ground on 15 carries back in Week 3.
This is a difficult-to-predict backfield right now unless we get
an indication that Wilson is going to be limited with his hip
injury.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
It’s been a bad season for tight ends throughout the NFL
and particularly a disappointing year for Bills tight end Dawson
Knox, but there’s reason for optimism as Buffalo heads into
this important Week 15 divisional battle against Miami. Knox was
targeted a season-most seven times this past week against the
Jets, catching four of those passes for 41 yards and a touchdown
- just his third score of the year. Those numbers don’t
sound particularly interesting, but they become something to watch
when we consider that he’s now facing a Miami defense that
has given up the fourth-most points per game to opposing tight
ends this season. Eight different tight ends have gone into double-digit
PPR points against the Dolphins so far in 2022. While Knox himself
was held to four catches for 25 yards against Miami back in Week
3, Josh Allen was able to complete an additional five passes for
44 yards to other Buffalo tight ends that day, bringing the team
total to nine receptions for 69 yards, and that came on a day
in which the Bills scored just 19 points. Assuming that they’ll
be airing the ball out a decent bit again this weekend, look for
Knox to be one of the main targets, especially when the team gets
near the end zone.
There was some concern after a confusing gameplan in Week 13,
but we learned this past week that Buffalo running back Devin
Singletary did not lose his job to James Cook. He still only carried
the ball eight times for 39 yards in a low-scoring game against
the Jets, but Singletary’s role as the primary back in Buffalo
appears to be intact—at least for now. Unfortunately, his role
on fantasy squads is not nearly as solidified as he has been quite
disappointing in most games. Singletary has failed to reach even
90 rushing yards in a game yet this season and he’s basically
useless in the passing game most weeks. He’s scored four touchdowns
over his past five games, which has allowed him to deliver a few
RB2 performances over that stretch, but he’s essentially a touchdown-or-bust
type of player. If he is going to be utilized in the passing game,
though, it might be here against the Dolphins. The last time he
played them, Singletary caught a career-high nine passes for 78
yards and a touchdown, carrying him to by far his biggest fantasy
performance of 2022. He’s certainly far from a must-start player
at this point, but you could do worse if you’re dealing with some
injuries at the position.
Davis has now been held to fewer than 40 receiving yards in five
of his past seven games and hasn’t reached 100 yards in any of
those contests. His two touchdowns over that stretch have allowed
him to avoid being a complete dud for fantasy, but there’s no
question that he’s failed to live up to the pre-season hype that
saw him being selected in the single-digit rounds of almost all
fantasy drafts. Meanwhile, teammate Isaiah McKenzie has also had
his struggles, as he’s been held to fewer than 50 receiving yards
in eight of his past nine games while only scoring one touchdown
during that stretch. To make matters worse, veteran Cole Beasley
is signing with the Bills, which is almost certainly going to
break into McKenzie’s playing time in specific and it could be
as early as this week. The Bills passing game just is not producing
enough right now that anyone other than Stefon Diggs can really
be trusted as a reliable starter. Dawson Knox is fine because
he plays such a garbage position to begin with, but it’s probably
best to avoid the non-Diggs wide receivers in the Buffalo passing
game for now, until we start to see Josh Allen performing better.
Some owners who were big beneficiaries of Patterson’s breakout
in 2021, and his hot start to 2022 may be surprised to see his
name here. Since returning from injury in Week 9, he is averaging
about 14 touches per game and about 4.5 yards per carry in the
run game. That’s a slide from where he was pre-injury, but the
production has been consistent. In that same span, Allgeier is
averaging about 11 total touches per game and averaging nearly
5.5 yards per carry. Would we like it better if they weren’t splitting
the load? Of course. But both are solid flex options, or even
RB3’s in deeper leagues, and they could see an increased load
as the Falcons transition to rookie QB Desmond Ridder. Why these
two are not more involved as receivers out of the backfield is
beyond me.
I’ve seen Ridder listed as a potential low-end QB2 this
week. I suppose he could pop. He’s talented, mobile, and
has a strong arm, and there is little to no tape on him. That
could give him some potential juice in this game. But the Saints
have a solid defense, Ridder is a rookie, and based on how HC
Arthur Smith has always viewed offense, I’m not sure he’s
going to open up the playbook or the passing game for Ridder.
Of course, they do have to kind of figure out what the kid has,
so he’s going to have to let him throw the ball at some
point.
Of course, just when London is coming off his best game of the
season, they pull the QB. London has at least 5 catches in two
of his last four games, and nearly a third of his targets have
come in the last four games. Again, it seems like it would be
wildly out of character for HC Arthur Smith to suddenly start
having his QB chucking the ball all over the field, so I think
London is set for a step back in production this week.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Olave has essentially been the Saints weekly leader in all things
receiving since day one. He’s averaging 8 targets and 6
catches per game with nearly 75 receiving yards per game and will
easily surpass the 1,000-yard mark as a rookie as long as he stays
healthy. He’s had two weeks to prepare for a Falcons defense
that is allowing 23.9 fantasy points per game to opposing wide
receivers on the season.
Johnson was emerging as one of Andy Dalton’s go-to guys in the
passing game before an ankle injury slowed him in Week 12. Coming
off the bye week, he should be healthy and a solid consideration
for TE2, or even low-end TE1 duties, but reports are that he has
continued to be limited in practice this week. Watch the injury
reports.
What a huge disappointment. Landry hasn’t had as many as five
catches or even 40 receiving yards in a game since Week 1, and
that’s even with Michael Thomas being on the sidelines. Andy Dalton
has topped 300 yards once this season and Landry is playing about
50% of the snaps. There simply isn't enough usage and volume here
to consider Landry as a Flex option.
Brown’s four catches for 85 yards on six targets in Week
14 marked his best game in over a month. Earlier this season,
Brown was a productive WR2/WR3 option, but after a mid-season
lull, Brown could emerge as a sneaky flex play on an offense with
a wide range of weapons in a game that could turn into a shootout.
Gallup’s stock is on a slight upswing as he seems to be
earning a larger role in the pass attack. He has at least six
targets in four of the last five games and can find the end zone.
On the flip side, even with a slightly elevated role, there are
still too many mouths to feed in this offense and he’s surpassed
50 receiving yards in a game just once all season.
So it looks like it could be Hilton, and not OBJ, who gets the
first chance to boost this passing attack. But I think Hilton’s
role will be more decoy than weapon. He’s a perimeter receiver
coming off a poor 2021 campaign whose greatest contribution will
be giving CeeDee Lamb the ability to move around the formation
and attack from different parts of the field.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
I have always loved Jones. He’s incredibly athletic and
explosive, with a huge catch radius and is capable of making the
spectacular grab. He’s finally found a home in Jacksonville
and has double-digit targets with at least eight catches in three
of the Jags’ last four games. His rise has coincided with
QB Trevor Lawrence’s maturation, and despite playing against
a Dallas D that can get after the QB, I see them both putting
up solid numbers in Week 15.
Etienne is dominating the backfield work for this team and continues
to dominate the snap count, but it has been a rough four-week
stretch with another stingy defense on the horizon. The Jags will
feed him the ball in an effort to keep the Cowboys pass rush at
bay, but it could be another tough day this week. His last trip
to the endzone was in Week 9.
The Cowboys are allowing just 4.1 fantasy points per game to
opposing TE’s this year, best in the NFL. While Engram went
off last week against Tennessee (11-162-2), it was his first game
with more than five catches since Week 5.
Note that rookie Jameson Williams is not (yet) on the list, as
he has been targeted just three times over his first two professional
games while playing a grand total of 21 snaps. These numbers are
well behind both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Josh Reynolds, as well
as recent breakout D.J. Chark. We have to expect that Williams
is going to continue to see his usage increase, but Chark also
returned from injury recently and has stepped into a much bigger
role in the Detroit offense over the past three weeks. He’s playing
nearly every snap for the Lions and has been targeted a total
of 18 times over those three games, resulting in a 98-yard performance
in Week 13 and a 94-yard performance in Week 14. Chark would normally
be a “Favorite” on this list, but it seems likely that he will
draw a lot of attention from Jets cornerback Sauce Gardner who
has been exceptional in coverage. The Jets are a defense that
funnels a lot of passes from opposing quarterbacks to the middle
of the field, which could be good for St. Brown but it’s not likely
to result in a third straight excellent day for Chark. Still,
Chark is playing enough snaps and the Lions' offense is moving
the ball well enough that he’s worthy of a look in deeper leagues
as a WR3/Flex.
Lions quarterback Jared Goff is now coming off of back-to-back
20-point fantasy performances, but the New York Jets boast a top-10
defense in containing opposing quarterbacks this season and they
haven’t allowed a 200-yard passer since Week 11. More interestingly,
they have allowed just one quarterback to exceed 250 passing yards
(Joe Burrow in Week 3) against them so far this season. The upside
just isn’t strong enough to justify putting Goff in your lineup,
even though he’s likely going to be able to distribute the ball
to a couple of receivers in order to make them useful for fantasy.
The Detroit running backs won’t have an easy day, either,
as they face a New York defense that has given up the 10th-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far in 2022.
Only one running back (Raheem Mostert in Week 5) has reached the
100-yard rushing mark against them and they’ve only given
up two rushing touchdowns over their past six games. Jamaal Williams’
efficiency has been abysmal as he’s averaged fewer than
four yards per carry in six straight contests. He’s been
a touchdown machine over that time, but even getting into the
end zone in most of those games hasn’t allowed him to be
a real fantasy difference-maker, as he’s exceeded 12 fantasy
points just once during this six-game stretch.
D’Andre Swift looked like he was headed in the right direction
when he saw 18 touches against the Jaguars in Week 13, but things
fell crashing back to Earth this past week when he saw just nine
touches, including six carries, in a win over the Vikings. Swift
has now failed to exceed 10 touches in all but one game since
he returned from injury back in Week 8. He’s simply not
seeing enough volume to be startable at the moment.
Update: Zach
Wilson will start at QB over Mike White (ribs).
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Late-season breakout Zonovan Knight dominated touches in the
Jets backfield this past week, even with Michael Carter’s return.
There was a lot of concern that he’d see his usage tail off in
a big way once Carter got back onto the field, but it was Knight’s
19 touches on offense that dwarfed Carter’s eight. It’s important
that we don’t get too overzealous about Knight as a closer look
at the numbers will tell us that it was actually Carter who slightly
out-snapped Knight on the day, even though he didn’t touch the
ball nearly as often. Nevertheless, there’s still plenty of reason
to have optimism about Knight this week. Mike White is expected
to play this weekend which should continue to give the New York
offense a higher ceiling than what we had seen earlier this year.
Note that Zach Wilson has been elevated to the No.2 quarterback
position over Joe Flacco. Either way, Knight is a solid RB2 this
week.
A concussion knocked Corey Davis out of the Jets’ Week 14 matchup
against the Bills, which seemed to directly result in increased
usage for fellow wide receiver Elijah Moore. Moore ended up being
targeted 10 times in the contest, catching six of the passes for
60 yards. While his performance wasn’t anything spectacular, it
should raise some interest for him this week as the Jets match
up against the Lions and their horrendous pass defense. Detroit
has given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing
wide receivers this season, including a monster game to Justin
Jefferson this past week that coincided with big performances
from both Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn. If Davis is inactive,
Moore makes for a sneaky start in what could end up being a shootout.
Corey Davis potentially missing this week’s game with a concussion
would theoretically mean increased playing time and opportunities
for depth pass catchers in the New York offense, but don’t fall
into the trap of starting these fringe Jets pass catchers. Berrios’
playing time saw almost no increase from the point when Davis
went out and prior to the concussion against the Bills. Meanwhile,
Mims did see an increase in snaps but was still only targeted
five times on the day. The Detroit defense is bad enough that
one of them could get into the end zone, but it’s much more likely
that we’re going to see Garrett Wilson, Elijah Moore and tight
end Tyler Conklin produce useful fantasy numbers.
HC Andy Reid historically does not like to run the ball, which
is why backs like Jerick McKinnon have days like he did last week
in this offense. But Pacheco seems to have beaten the odds and
found a way to Reid’s heart with at least 13 carries in each of
the last five games. He has at least 66 rush yards in every game
during that span, including a 100-yard game, an 80-yard effort,
and a 70-yard game. He also has caught six of six targets in the
last three weeks. Against a Texans defense that has been gashed
by the run this season, I think Pacheco is in line for his second
100-yard game of 2022…as long as Andy gives him the ball.
McKinnon is coming off a huge day in Week 14 that saw him snatch
two touchdown passes. But the one thing Houston does pretty well
is defend the pass. And the way they play keeps everything in
front of them and limits the big play. McKinnon may have a tough
time repeating last week’s heroics, despite his recent resurgence
in the system. This may be a game that sees TE Travis Kelce get
back on track before McKinnon.
Valdez-Scantling has been inconsistent all season, and at best
he’s the third option in the passing game for KC. He’s
the deep vertical threat in this system, and against Houston’s
two-deep safety looks, I don’t think he’s going to
be able to break that umbrella coverage and make an impact play.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Moore caught 10 of 11 passes for 124 yards in the Week 14 loss
to Dallas. With Nico Collins likely out due to injury, and the
Texans down to Rex Burkhead at RB, Moore seems as good a choice
as any for some serious production this week, especially against
a Chiefs defense that has been susceptible to the pass at times.
It also won’t hurt that the Texans could be in catch-up mode for
most of this game. We're waiting to see if Brandin Cooks is able
to suit up this week. He has been spotted at practice.
With Dameon Pierce sidelined due to an ankle sprain, and Eno Benjamin
very curiously released, Burkhead is about all that is left. He
has 26 carries for 80 yards on the season, and 14 of those carries
came in Week 1. Dare Ogunbowale has 21 touches on the season.
Both will be involved but Burkhead should be the preferred option.
Mills seems to have lost the confidence of HC Lovie Smith, and
now Jeff Driskel is taking all of the red zone snaps, eliminating
any sort of fantasy value (how ever small) Mills may have had.
Take note that some leagues (Yahoo!) have Driskel eligible at
tight end and could be worth a flier their if need be.
You could make a fairly compelling case for Smith as a no-brainer
given his prominent role in a high-powered offense. On the contrarian
side, the Alabama product has only topped 100 yards twice in a
game this year, and he has finished with 50 yards or less five
times in his last eight outings. However you want to view it,
Smith looks like a quality option here as Chicago’s defense
is among the NFL’s worst -- even though it’s their
run defense that has been particularly odious -- and their secondary
has been compromised by injury. View Smith as a low-end WR2/high-end
WR3 here.
On IR since mid-November, Goedert is eligible to return this
Sunday after Philly opened his practice window Wednesday. Now,
if they activate him before Sunday’s game with the Bears
it might be very tempting to plug him right back into your lineup.
Don’t. Odds are the Eagles would ease him back into game
action as they’re currently in the driver’s seat for
the top seed and have a very winnable matchup with the Bears this
Sunday. Better to be conservative this time of year unless you
have no other option.
Fade: N/A
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
As suspected, Kmet led the Bears in targets (7) and receptions
(6) in their last game before the bye with the second-year tight
end effectively replacing WR Darnell Mooney (ankle) as Fields’
No. 1 option. The Packers chose to go heavy zone coverage there
to keep eyes on Fields, which opened things up for the passing
attack. We’ll see if the Eagles look to play it the same way or
rely on their pass rush to win while their quality corners lock
up Chicago’s suspect wideouts. Either way, Kmet figures to get
a lot of looks and is worth a TE1 slot.
After catching seven passes in his first four games with Chicago
combined, Claypool hauled in five balls in Week 13. That was the
good news. The bad news is that he gained just 28 yards (5.6 YPC)
and lost a fumble. He also finished behind Equanimeous St. Brown
and N’Keal Harry in receiving yardage. Claypool’s usage (6 targets)
can be viewed as a positive sign, but he’s still not someone to
plug into your lineup.
Harris hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in a game yet this season,
but he has totaled at least 80 in three of the last four, and
he’s becoming more of an option around the goal line with four
scores in the last four contests. With QB Kenny Pickett either
playing after his second concussion of the season, or sitting
this one out, the run game figures to play a more prominent role
in the game plan this week.
Word is that the Steelers want Pickens to fill the WR1 role,
but he’s seen a stumble in production in recent weeks. However,
he’s managed to make the most of limited targets, averaging at
least 20.0 yards per catch in three of the last four contests.
However, with QB Kenny Pickett out or potentially limited, Pickens
may have to wait another week for a return to form.
Pickett suffered his second concussion of the season last week,
so it sems likely that he’ll be sitting this one out, yielding
to either Mason Rudolph or Mitchell Trubisky, who have been splitting
practice reps this week. But even if he plays, I’m not expecting
a big passing day from the Steelers.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Foreman has taken over the RB1 role in Carolina under HC Steve
Wilks, and even though he is ceding some carries to Chuba Hubbard,
he still has at least 20 totes in three of the last four games
and has 74 or more yards in each of those contests. With Carolina
going ultra conservative in the pass game with Sam Darnold back
under center, Foreman should expect 25-30 carries this week and
fantasy owners can expect solid RB2 production.
Moore got shut out for just the second time in his career last
week in Seattle, but prior to that to that he seemed to be back
to being D.J. Moore with Sam Darnold at QB. The problem is Darnold
hasn’t thrown for 200 yards in either of his recent starts,
and the plan looks to be to run the ball and control possession
in the passing game – things that don’t’ necessarily
add up to big fantasy production for your WR1.
While Darnold is starting again, and winning, by the way, he
has yet to throw for 200 yards in either of his starts (averaging
142 yards per game) and is posting just 6.6 yards per attempt
with only two touchdowns, finishing as the QB18 and QB22.
It’s been a one-man backfield in Arizona. Conner’s snap percentages
since Week 10 are 96%, 78%, 97%, bye, 95%. Ideal for fantasy owners.
With touches of 24, 16, 28 and 21 in those games, the Arizona
running back is an easy RB1 in any format. Sure, the loss of Kyler
Murray (ACL) is going to hamper the offense but that may result
in more usage for Conner. Denver’s overall defense is solid but
they have given up the 11th most rushing yards in the league including
100-yard games to Josh Jacobs x2, Travis Etienne and D’Onta Foreman.
With Murray out for the season, the Cardinals will turn to Colt
McCoy to finish out the string. He’s been respectable in
a couple of spot starts earlier in the year but has had trouble
getting the ball in the endzone with just one passing TD in three
games. Hopkins (7-79-0) saw 11 targets last week after Murray
left the game so his usage should be in question but’s its
reasonable to knock his projection down given the tough matchup
against the league’s best pass defense. Only the Colts have
given up fewer passing yards to wide receivers making Hopkins
more of a WR2 play this week.
Despite a solid target numbers since his return in Week 12, Brown
has finished as the WR42 and WR56 in two games with a high-water
mark of 46 yards. He’ll now be without Kyler Murray and
from Given the low game total (35.5) and difficult matchup, I’d
be inclined to look for other options at my WR3 or Flex position.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
No Brainers: N/A
Update: Russell
Wilson is out. Brett Rypien will start at QB.
Dulcich is this week’s proud recipient of the Cardinals
terrible defense against tight ends including a league-leading
950 yards and 9 TDs allowed to the position. The role for the
Broncos tight end is solid, playing at least 72% of the snaps
since Week 10, but the results have been hit or miss. He did see
8 targets in each of his last two games and you would think a
similar target number should yield TE1 results in this matchup.
The Broncos passing game finally came to life somewhat last week,
taking advantage of multiple Patrick Mahomes’ interceptions. Russell
Wilson had his best fantasy day of the season (247-3-1, 4-57-0)
with all three touchdowns going to Jeudy. Obviously, the TDs aren’t
sustainable but with Courtland Sutton and Kendall Hinton both
likely to miss with hamstring injuries, the Broncos don’t have
much else to turn to on the outside. Making matters worse, we
may see Brett Rypien at quarterback if Wilson can’t get cleared
from his concussion. If Wilson is able to go, you can feel slightly
more comfortable with Jeudy as your WR3.
Murray’s dismal showing last week (8-32-0, 3 catches, -1 yds)
occurred with Mike Boone leaving due to an ankle injury and Marlon
Mack out-producing him on five touches. Sure, the Broncos were
in a huge negative game script (down 27-0 at one point) and the
game flow should be better this week, but it’s hard to get behind
a 32-year-old running back averaging 3.9 yard per carry on a team
playing out the string. Don’t be surprised if we see more of Marlon
Mack in this game.
Harris has missed the last two weeks with a thigh injury but
did practice Wednesday and Thursday this week on a limited basis
giving him a chance to jump back in the saddle as the Patriots
lead running back. With Rhamondre Stevenson (ankle) likely out
and this being the first week back for Harris, we’ll be playing
the guessing game on how much he will be limited, if at all. Kevin
Harris and Pierre Strong Jr. will also be available but it’s not
out of the question for Damien to see 20 touches in this game.
The game script should be positive against a Raiders defense that’s
given up the fifth most fantasy points to running backs.
You can see a path to Jones having a good game here especially
if the Patriots shy away a bit from their run game with Rhamondre
Stevenson (ankle) unlikely to play. We’re not accustom to seeing
spiked weeks from Mac, but it has happened a couple of time this
season, most recently against Minnesota in Week 12 (382-2-0).
The Raiders don’t put up much resistance on defense and there
are no weather concerns here. It would be nice to have DeVante
Parker’s big-play ability but he’s likely to sit with a concussion
and the return of Jakobi Meyers (concussion) is also in question
leaving the passing game thin at receiver. Nelson Agholor, Kendrick
Bourne, Tyquan Thornton and Hunter Henry would have to do the
heavy lifting if Jones were to reach a ceiling game.
Fade: N/A
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Prior to last week, Carr had posted at least two touchdowns in
five straight games. That streak came to an end against the Rams
and Carr finished as the QB27 with a 137-0-2 line. On the season,
Carr has been a middling QB2 as the running game with Josh Jacobs
has been emphasized. His spiked games have come against below-average
pass defenses (LAC, SEA, TEN) and despite ranking 17th in fantasy
points allowed to QBs, New England has only given up one 300-yard
game on the season. I’ll be on the “bench” side
of the fence for Carr in Week 15.
Waller has been bothered by a hamstring injury most of the season
and hasn’t played a game since Week 4. He’s eligible to return
this week but it’s unclear at this time if he’ll be activated
off IR and play. Even if he does, it’s doubtful he’ll be heavily
involved in the gameplan and could be on a pitch count. Moreau
has been filling for Waller much of the season and while he’s
consistently on the field playing almost every snap, this offense
is feeding Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams and occasionally Mack Hollins.
That’s not leaving enough room for the tight end to be a consistent
weekly option. Moreau hasn’t topped 3 catches since Week 8. With
every team on the field this week, Moreau loses even more value.
This may seem obvious, but with Tyler Boyd (finger), Tee Higgins
(hamstring), questionable and TE Hayden Hurst (calf) out of this
game, Chase is about the only weapon left for QB Joe Burrow and
he will force the ball to him. We can’t trust HC Zac Taylor when
it comes to Tee Higgins and his injury status, so we turn to Chase.
He has at least 97 yards and seven catches in each of the last
four games, and in two games against NFC South opponents this
season (ATL, NO) he’s totaled 15 catches on 21 targets for 262
yards and four touchdowns.
As receivers started falling like wooden soldiers last week,
it was Irwin who stepped up with two catches and a big TD. In
fact, two of his last seven catches have been for scores. He’s
a playmaker with a nose for the end zone, who could have some
WR3/Flex value if Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins remain sidelined
due to injury.
Perine did a nice job during a three-game run as the RB1 in place
of the injured Joe Mixon. With Mixon back in Week 14, Perine was
working in a backup role. While he did have a healthy 43% snap
percentage, he only had five touches, one of which found the endzone
making his fantasy day somewhat fluky. With Tampa Bay stingy against
the run, you can look elsewhere.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
White is still splitting time with Leonard Fournette, but has
at least 17 total touches in four straight games. He’s posted
at least 75 total yards in three of those contests, making him
a very solid RB2 value especially in PPR leagues. Last week White
played 53% of the snaps while Fournette played 47%.
As this offense has continued to sputter, Otton has remained steady.
Ten of his 36 catches on the season have come in the last two
games for 56 yards and a touchdown. Since QB Tom Brady’s arrival,
the TE’s other than Rob Gronkowski have been an afterthought in
this offense, but Otton may be the guy to change that. Still,
he’s a reach as a low-end TE1.
Jones hasn’t practiced this week with a knee injury, and
despite a slight uptick in production in recent weeks, it may
be time to finally close the book on the former All-Pro for good.
He’s seen double-digit fantasy points in just three games
this season and hasn’t topped 50 yards since Week 10.
We’ve had a new face in the barren tight end landscape pop up
in recent weeks. In fact, Chig is the TE9 in fantasy points scored
over the last five weeks. He hasn’t surpassed Austin Hooper on
the depth chart but Tennessee is definitely running more two tight
end sets with Treylon Burks out and drawing up plays for Chig
and Hooper. Both played roughly 50% of the snaps last week and
Chig has seen at least five targets in the last three games. More
snaps on the field and more volume in the passing game would be
nice, but for now, ride the efficiency while you can.
Tannehill found himself as the QB10 last week after a 254-2-1
line against Jacksonville and even tacked on 16 rushing yards,
bad ankles and all. He’s routinely lived in QB2 territory and
has yet to throw more than two touchdowns in a game. If you believe
the Titans might get in a negative game script, falling behind
a couple scores early, then Tannehill could exceed his typical
value. But, with marginal weapons on the outside and a team that
prefers to pound the ball when they can, it’s difficult to get
behind Tannehill this week even if stud safety Derwin James (quad)
misses.
Woods simply hasn’t seen enough volume this season to be
the trusted WR3 we were hoping for this pre-season. His 38-406-1
line through 14 weeks reads more like a WR5. Even with Treylon
Burks out due to a concussion the Titans simply aren’t targeting
him enough, choosing to spread the ball around the multiple tight
ends and even giving Derrick Henry more opportunities in the passing
game than we’re used to. Continue to keep the veteran wideout
on the bench.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
This game sets up nicely for the Chargers passing attack as typically
teams prefer to throw the ball against the Titans defense. No
problem, as only Tampa Bay throws the ball at a higher rate than
the Chargers (65.6%). Herbert has been a little light in the TD
department the last two weeks with just two scores for his effort
but he does back-to-back 300-yard passing games leading to QB9
and QB11 finishes.
It's now back-to-back games with 14 targets for Keenan Allen.
Austin Ekeler has caught 24 passes in the last three weeks and
Mike Williams returned last week and posted a 6-116-1 line. This
is the kind of offense we envisioned for the Chargers but it quickly
became derailed due to injuries. With their big guns finally healthy,
it’s hard to envision this offense failing against one of
the worst pass defenses in the league. Certainly, we could see
something strange, but all of these guys are setup for good fantasy
performances as we begin the first week of the playoffs in most
leagues.
Palmer is capable of having a good game here, but with everyone
healthy, he’s going to be battling for targets with Ekeler and
Gerald Everett in addition to Allen and Williams. Palmer saw a
respectable six targets last week in a game the Chargers threw
the ball 51 times. Certainly, a pass-heavy game plan is to be
expected against Tennessee but we’ll need to see another 50-attempt
game from Herbert for Palmer to retain WR4 value.
It’s sad to say, but Saquon Barkley is unfortunately not
a “no-brainer” after his 28-yard rushing day against
the Eagles this past week. The Giants running back turned in his
second single-digit fantasy performance over the past four weeks,
which means that we have to really consider the other potential
options on our bench. If you’re looking for some hope, though,
it’s not as if Barkley himself looks bad. You only have
to go back one week prior to the Eagles game to find a nice fantasy
day from Barkley in which he rushed for 63 yards and a touchdown
while also catching five passes against the very same Washington
defense he’ll be facing here in Week 15. Barkley has had
some down weeks recently, but he’s still capable of some
big spike weeks and probably needs to be in fantasy lineups, even
against an improving Washington defense.
Jones threw for 200 yards and a touchdown while rushing for 71
yards against Washington back in Week 13. While the 200 yards
through the air doesn’t sound like anything special—and it’s not—the
reality is that it was one of just five times all season that
Jones has been able to reach that milestone, despite the fact
that he’s been QB1 for fantasy on the year. Jones is a very low-volume
passer, but his rushing ability really makes up for it as he’s
now scored at least 14 fantasy points in five straight games.
Jones would probably be a “favorite” on the list if he didn’t
have such a rough go of things this past week against Philadelphia.
He was able to throw for and run for a touchdown, but he took
an absolute beating at the hands of the Eagles’ defense who sacked
him four times and hit him 12 times total throughout the afternoon.
He ended up getting benched and replaced by Tyrod Taylor late
in the contest and while that’s not really any indication that
the team has lost faith in Jones as the score was out of hand
at that point anyway, it should be a warning that his body could
be banged up heading into this contest.
Giants wide receiver Richie James caught a team-high seven passes
for 61 yards against the Eagles this past week while setting a
new personal-best mark for the year with nine targets. Furthermore,
he has now scored a touchdown in three of his past four games.
The one game that he didn’t score, though, was against the
Commanders when he was held to just three catches for 20 yards
on the day, including just three total targets. He’ll be
facing that same defense here in Week 15. It’s not impossible
to think of a situation in which a fantasy manager would be wise
to start James, but he’s probably not someone that most
of us should be relying on, especially against a Washington defense
that has started to look better as of late.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Washington is coming off of their bye and they now get to face
the very same team that they were up against prior to the bye,
the New York Giants, but this time it’s at home. Running
back Brian Robinson really was the focal point of the Commanders’
offense on that day, as his 23 touches helped bring Washington
to a tie on the road. Robinson has now touched the ball at least
15 times in seven of his past eight games. He’s only scored
two rushing touchdowns thus far, which has helped cloud the reality
that he has essentially been a less-recognized, NFC version of
Nick Chubb over the second half of the season. Robinson lacks
the usage in the passing game to really deliver truly outstanding
fantasy performances without scoring multiple touchdowns, but
his volume as a runner is undeniable right now. He went for 96
yards on the ground against the Giants in his previous game and
New York just allowed Miles Sanders to embarrass them for 144
yards and two touchdowns on the ground this past week. Trust the
volume.
Rookie wide receiver Jahan Dotson is finally playing more snaps
than Curtis Samuel in recent weeks. He also saw a career-high
nine targets against this Giants’ defense the last time he was
on the field, which he converted into five receptions for 54 yards
and a touchdown. Dotson has now scored five times in just 19 career
receptions, which really highlights the fact that the Commanders
are utilizing him as a red-zone specialist. Those types of players
can be difficult to predict at times, but Dotson is finally starting
to look healthy and should be a big part of the Commanders’ gameplan
here in Week 15. Understand that he could give you a dud, but
if you’re looking for a WR3/Flex to put in your lineup, Dotson
is a decent option.
With Robinson really starting to take over this backfield in
terms of touches, Antonio Gibson’s usage has seen a pretty significant
dip. He’s now seen exactly nine carries in each of his past two
games and he really isn’t making much of a case to see those totals
increase as he hasn’t exceeded 4.0 yards per carry in a game since
Week 7. His passing game usage is better than that of Robinson
but still hasn’t been anything too exciting even after the Commanders
lost J.D. McKissic for the season. He hasn’t caught more than
three passes in a game since Week 8. A player who isn’t seeing
significant volume and isn’t producing great results with the
opportunities he does get just shouldn’t be trusted in fantasy
lineups. Leave Gibson on your bench here in Week 15.
After some frustrating times with the Rams, which included an
unfulfilled trade request, Akers has emerged as their top back
-- over the last two games, he has logged 73 snaps to 37 for Kyren
Williams. The numbers haven’t been great, but the former
Seminole has scored three times in that stretch. Green Bay has
one of the league’s worst run defenses this season, allowing
154.8 yards per game (30th) and 5.0 YPC (T-29th). It’s a
good week to bank on Akers as a high-end RB3 with solid RB2 upside.
Considering he joined the team on Tuesday, Mayfield’s performance
last Thursday night bordered on the miraculous. The former No.
1 overall pick took over after one series and passed for 230 yards
and a touchdown, leading a 98-yard drive to topple Las Vegas with
a late strike to Van Jefferson. Despite that, leaning on Mayfield
this Monday night would be a mistake. His numbers with Cleveland
and Carolina were poor, and his last trip to Lambeau Field included
four interceptions. Keep away.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Dillon’s usage has been frustratingly inconsistent this season
to be sure, but he’s coming off a couple of strong performances,
compiling 88 yards in Week 12 and 119 yards in Week 13 while scoring
in both -- his first two TDs since the opener. Part of his success
against the Bears was due to Jones being banged up, but surely
seeing how much teams don’t want to deal with a 247-pound hammer
on cold nights means we’ll see more of him this Monday. Pencil
Dillon is a midrange RB3.
The week off looks to have done Rodgers some good as he reportedly
practiced without tape on his injured thumb and indicated his
ribs were doing better as well. This Monday should also mark the
return of Romeo Doubs, giving No. 12 a full complement of receivers.
Will that be enough to finally push Rodgers over the 300-yard
threshold for the first time in 2022? We’ll see. He threw for
307 yards and 2 TDs during LA’s late-November visit a season ago,
giving him QB1 upside for Week 15, albeit packed with some level
of risk.
After scoring in five of his first seven games on the season,
Lazard has gone without a touchdown the last four games. It’s
no coincidence that Watson has scored eight times during that
stretch. Although Lazard did lead the team in receiving in Week
13 with a 5-67-0 line, the aforementioned return of Doubs further
muddies the water for a player that opened the year as the de
facto No. 1 receiver in Green Bay. Now, Lazard shouldn’t
be more than a flex.
