Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary
By: Dave Stringer — November 1, 2010 @ 4:58 pm
It turns out that the return of Randy Moss to the Minnesota Vikings was a short-lived one.
The Vikings announced today that they have waived Moss, one day after the enigmatic wide receiver delivered a rambling five-minute post-game press conference that criticized Vikings coaches and praised his former head coach, Bill Belichick of the New England Patriots.
The decision to release Moss adds another layer of intrigue to a Vikings season that has delivered plenty of drama but has not resulted in a winning record for a team many had labelled a Super Bowl contender at the start the season.
On October 6th, Minnesota acquired Moss from the Patriots in exchange for their third-round draft pick in the 2011 draft. The Patriots also sent their seventh-round pick of the 2012 draft to the Vikings as part of the trade.
At the time of the trade, Minnesota’s passing game was struggling, and Moss’s addition was expected to revive the Vikings air attack. However, Moss failed to deliver big plays in Minnesota and struggled during his short stay with the team.
In four games with the Vikings, he managed just 13 receptions for 174 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This week, against his former team in New England, Moss caught just one pass for eight yards.
Because the trade deadline has passed, Moss will be on waivers for 24 hours. ESPN is reporting that a number of teams are interested in Moss.
Of the playoff-contending teams, the Redskins, Rams, Bears, Raiders, Seahawks, and Chiefs are most in need of help at wide receiver.
With Moss on the shelf and with two more bye weeks remaining, his owners are left with the unenviable task of trying to replace the player they likely tabbed as a WR1 entering the season.
At this point, the only route to replacing a WR1 is via trade. However, moving Moss when he has little to no trade value is not a viable option. Moss owners should hold onto him and hope he ends up on a wide receiver?needy team that will be likely to use him in the starting lineup.
At this point in the season, only playoff contenders are likely to acquire Moss, given his surly reputation; and only those teams willing to use him as a starter are likely to be interested in paying for his services. However, given his lack of production in both New England and in Minnesota—and his quick flameout with the Vikings—don’t expect him to ramp up his production with the team he signs with.
The best hope for Moss owners lies in the Patriots bringing him back into the fold and reinserting him in the starting lineup. While that may seem a far-fetched proposition at initial glance, a closer look reveals valid reasons for the Patriots to bring him back.
While Moss clearly sulked his way out of New England, the Patriots passing attack has suffered since he left. This year quarterback Tom Brady passed for 911 yards with nine touchdowns and two interceptions with Moss in the lineup. In his three games without Moss, Brady has thrown for only 691 yards and three touchdowns with the same number of interceptions.
By: Dave Stringer — October 6, 2010 @ 10:23 am
With their projected top wide receiver out indefinitely and still using crutches, the Minnesota Vikings today acquired Randy Moss from the New England Patriots.
Reports indicate the Patriots will receive a third round draft pick in the 2011 draft in return. Interestingly enough, the Patriots would likely have received a compensatory third round pick if Moss signed with another team as a free agent following the season.
The acquisition of Moss reunites the mercurial receiver with the franchise that selected him in the first round of the 1998 draft. Moss burst on to the scene as a rookie, catching 69 passes for 1,313 yards and an amazing 17 touchdowns – a rookie record that no other wide receiver has come close to approaching and which may never be broken.
In his initial stint in Minnesota, Moss had an amazing six-year run, topping 1,200 yards each season, before having a disappointing year in 2004 which ultimately led to the team trading him to Oakland.
During the period from 1998 to 2003, Moss caught 525 passes for 8,375 yards and 77 touchdowns. Only Jerry Rice and Marvin Harrison have exceeded that level of production over a six-year period.
Just what the Vikings needed.
In Minnesota, Moss immediately becomes the Vikings top wide receiver and unites him with quarterback Brett Favre for the first time in their careers. As a Packer, Favre encouraged team management to pursue Moss, but a trade with the Raiders never materialized and Moss was dealt to the Patriots.
Reports have circulated that the Packers refusal to trade for Moss was the point at which Favre began contemplating life in a uniform other than gold and green.
Minnesota’s passing attack has struggled thus far in 2010, failing to match the lofty heights it achieved in 2009 when Favre passed for 4,202 yards and 33 touchdowns with only seven interceptions. With Sidney Rice (hip) on the physically unable to perform list, the Vikings deep passing attack has floundered with few big plays in 2010.
However, the acquisition of Moss provides the team with a player that excels on deep passes and jump balls. In essence, Moss is a similar player to Rice with better deep speed… although Rice is a more skilled player on crossing routes.
In New England, it appears the Patriots are once again choosing to jettison a veteran player on the downside of their career in return for a quality draft pick. The decision to trade Moss follows the pattern that was set with the trade of defensive end Richard Seymour to the Oakland in return for a first round pick.
As with the Seymour trade, it is difficult to argue that trading Moss will help the Patriots in the short term, even if the team has developed young players at the wide receiver and tight end positions over the last two years.
If red lights aren’t going off for Sidney Rice owners, they should be. With reports indicating Rice is still walking with crutches after preseason hip surgery, the move to acquire Moss may be an indication that Rice is behind in his recovery and possibly headed for injured reserve.
With Moss on board, even if Rice comes back healthy, he now shapes up as a high-end WR3 given that Moss will almost certainly cut into his opportunities on deep passes and in the red zone.
Second-year jack-of-all-trades, Percy Harvin was a preseason favorite as a potential breakout player, in part due to Rice’s injury, but the chances of that happening now become nil.
In the short term, Harvin remains a viable option as a fantasy starter since he will continue to get opportunities in the short and intermediate passing game. Moss’ presence may actually help Harvin as teams will likely move their safeties further from the line of scrimmage to prevent Moss from getting deep.
However, Harvin becomes a WR4 with both Moss and Rice in the line-up. Don’t give up on him in dynasty formats since the trade was not conditional on Moss signing a contract extension with Minnesota.
Owners of Bernard Berrian, already fed up with his lack of production, can now safely jettison him from their rosters.
Favre is obviously a huge fantasy winner with this trade as Moss provides him with the exact type of player he loves to throw to – a tall player, with excellent deep speed and leaping ability. While Favre remains unlikely to hit the top five as a fantasy quarterback in 2010, he immediately moves from being a matchup play to being a fantasy starter that should be ranked just outside of the big six – Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Tony Romo and Matt Schaub.
Brady moves to the bottom of the aforementioned list of big six now that Moss no longer resides in the Patriots starting line-up.
As for Adrian Peterson, he remains arguably the top fantasy running back but his touchdown projection may take a slight hit as Moss is an excellent red zone option as are tight end Visanthe Shiancoe and Rice. Shiancoe also will likely lose red zone touches with Moss in the line-up.
In New England, second-year receiver Brandon Tate is the player most likely to assume Moss’ role in the team’s offense. However, he will not receive the same opportunities that Moss had in the deep passing game and the team will look to replace Moss’ production with a number of players.
Tate becomes an intriguing fantasy option but is nothing more than a WR4 or WR5 in most formats. He is more valuable as a prospect in dynasty leagues.
Slot receiver Wes Welker already gets plenty of use and it is difficult to imagine the Patriots actually increasing his role given that he is less than a year removed from ACL surgery.
That leaves the Patriots tight ends and running backs as the players most likely to increase their fantasy production with Moss no longer on the roster.
Rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez has had an excellent start to the season and has more receiving yards in his first four games than any tight end has ever had. Look for him to become an integral part of the team’s offense and to replace Moss as the team’s preferred option in the red zone.
Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski figures to get more looks as well but is unlikely to be worthy of a roster spot in fantasy leagues that are not dynasty formats.
Diminutive running back Danny Woodhead has already proven adept in the passing attack and has been effective replacing Kevin Faulk, who is out for the year. While Woodhead may get more touches, he is a low-end flex play in larger leagues only.
By: Dave Stringer — October 5, 2010 @ 8:20 pm
With a trio of smaller running backs, all with similar skill sets, the Seattle Seahawks have been in the market for a physical back since the draft.
Today, they finally found that back, acquiring Marshawn Lynch from the Buffalo Bills. ESPN reports that the Bills will receive a 2011 fourth-round pick and a conditional pick in 2012. With Buffalo having used its first-round pick in this year’s draft on Clemson running back C.J. Spiller and with Fred Jackson having three years remaining on his contract, Lynch was expendable.
In Seattle, Lynch will compete with Justin Forsett and Leon Washington for playing time. Following Lynch’s acquisition, the team released Julius Jones, who started 29 games during the 2008 and 2009 seasons.
Lynch’s departure comes as no surprise given his legal difficulties since entering the league and the tumultuous relationship he had with Bills management as well as the Buffalo fanbase.
Picked by the Bills in the first round of the 2007 draft, Lynch showed much promise during his rookie season, rushing for 1,115 yards and seven touchdowns. He followed that up with another 1,000-yard season in 2008 but fell out of favor with last year’s coaching staff, losing his starting job to Jackson by season’s end.
During his time in Buffalo, Lynch was investigated in connection with a hit and run incident, ultimately pleading guilty to a reduced traffic violation charge.
Then in February of 2009, police approached Lynch and two companions inside a vehicle that smelled of marijuana and found a gun they claimed belonged to Lynch. He pleaded guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge.
Ten months later, Lynch was accused of stealing $20 from the wife of a Buffalo police officer.
The most talented RB on the Seahawks roster.
Look for Lynch to quickly assume the lead back role in Seattle. Both Forsett and Washington are better suited to serve as backups, coming off the bench to provide a change of pace and to play on passing downs.
While Lynch has started in Buffalo since Week 2, it was widely assumed the team had moved him into the starting lineup to showcase him for a potential trade. It is hard to argue with that considering today’s developments.
Lynch has been decent thus far in 2010, but he has hardly been dominant, and it remains to be seen whether he will fulfill the potential he displayed during his first two years in the league.
Although he has solid size at 5’11, 235 pounds, there were whispers out of Buffalo that the coaching staff wanted him to be a more physical, downhill style of runner. Nonetheless, he immediately becomes the most talented running back on the Seahawks roster. He was named to the 2008 Pro Bowl and is just 24 years of age.
Lynch shapes up as a RB3 for fantasy purposes due to the Seahawks struggles on offense and the woeful performance of their offensive line so far this season. It would be foolish to suggest that his acquisition will result in a marked improvement in the Seahawks rushing attack, which currently ranks 27th in the league.
Look for Forsett to become the team’s main backup and for Washington to concentrate on his return duties on special teams. While the biggest fantasy loser from Lynch’s acquisition has to be Jones since he’s now out of a job, Forsett’s decline in value is likely causing his fantasy owner’s some major headaches right now.
In Buffalo, it’s anybody’s guess as to whether Spiller or Jackson will assume the lead role. Spiller clearly has major upside, but the coaching staff has been reluctant to use him. Jackson was productive in 2009 and seems the odds-on favorite to assume the lead back role until Spiller is ready to take over.
Both players shape up as flex plays at best, given that Buffalo has perhaps the worst offense in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — September 8, 2010 @ 4:55 am
The Baltimore Ravens continued their efforts to rebuild their talent base at wide receiver, signing Seattle Seahawks castoff T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a one-year contract.
The signing comes on the heels of the offseason trade for Anquan Boldin and the free agent signing of Donte Stallworth. With Mark Clayton subsequently being dealt to the St. Louis Rams, the Ravens have turned over half of their depth chart at wide receiver since the end of the 2009 season.
Reports indicate the 32-year old Houshmandzadeh will sign a one-year contract for the veteran minimum.
Despite signing a lucrative free agent contract with Seattle during the 2009 offseason, Houshmandzadeh was let go by new head coach Pete Carroll despite the team’s lack of proven players at the position. He had 79 receptions for 911 yards and three touchdowns in his only season in Seattle.
With Stallworth expected to be out for the first five or six weeks of the regular season with a broken foot, Houshmandzadeh provides the Ravens with veteran insurance behind Boldin and Derrick Mason. The Ravens also have third-year player Marcus Smith and rookie fifth-round pick David Reed at the position.
Known more for his route running ability, good hands and willingness to go over the middle, Houshmandzadeh is a possession receiver at this point of his career. He has averaged just 10.5 yards per reception over the last three years.
Houshmandzadeh’s prospects in Baltimore are clearly less favorable than being the number one receiver in Seattle were he shaped up as a WR3 in most formats. But in Baltimore, he is waiver wire fodder in all leagues other than extremely deep leagues that utilize the flex position. His signing has more fantasy implications for Baltimore’s other offensive players than for Houshmandzadeh himself.
Quarterback Joe Flacco, a high quality fantasy backup with upside prior to the signing, should move up draft boards a couple of positions with Housh on board. He gains an excellent option on third downs and should help the Ravens keep drives alive. Houshmandzadeh is also an excellent receiver in the red zone, although the Ravens favor running the ball when inside the 20-yard line. Flacco moves up to borderline fantasy starter.
Boldin and Mason should be dropped a few notches at wide receiver. In effect, Boldin, Mason and Houshmandzadeh are all very similar receivers with each player better at running short and intermediate routes at this point in their careers.
Boldin is clearly entrenched as the Ravens top player at the position so his fantasy outlook isn’t impacted as much as Mason’s. Mason figures to come off the field when the Ravens want to target Houshmandzadeh and he may see far fewer targets in the red zone.
Boldin and Houshmandzadeh are excellent red zone receivers, with Boldin using his strength and cutting ability to find the end zone and Houshmandzadeh relying on his height on fades and size on quick slants.
Therefore, the biggest fantasy loser with the Houshmandzadeh signing is Derrick Mason.
By: Dave Stringer — September 7, 2010 @ 11:43 pm
Looking to bolster a wide receiver depth chart lacking proven playmakers and veteran experience, the St. Louis Rams have acquired Mark Clayton from the Baltimore Ravens. ESPN reports the Rams gave up a 2011 sixth-round draft pick in exchange for Clayton and the Ravens seventh-round pick in 2011.
Clayton became expendable when the Ravens signed former Seahawk and Bengal receiver T.J. Houshmandzadeh to a one-year contract over the weekend.
The acquisition of Clayton replenishes the talent base at wide receiver for the Rams and provides the team with a solid replacement for Donnie Avery, who suffered a torn ACL and is out for the year. Clayton possesses excellent speed and is a talented player whose production has yet to match his abilities.
In St. Louis, Clayton figures to quickly ascend up the depth chart and should be amongst the team’s top three receivers as soon as he learns the playbook. He will compete for playing time with Laurent Robinson, Danny Amendola and Brandon Gibson. The Rams also have rookie fourth-round pick Mardy Gilyard, Keenan Burton and Dominique Curry on the roster.
While the Rams previously stated that Amendola would replace Avery in the starting line-up, he is better suited to the slot where he can utilize his quickness. Gibson had a disappointing preseason, largely the result of a hamstring injury that caused him to miss significant time.
Clayton enjoyed a breakout season in 2006, catching 67 passes for 939 yards and five touchdowns. However, he failed to build on that season and his reception totals dropped in each of the last three years, from 48 to 41 to 34 in 2009.
In Baltimore, Clayton was cast as a deep threat with Derrick Mason running short and intermediate routes. However, in the Rams version of the west coast offense, Clayton will be used on more short and intermediate routes and his reception totals should increase.
Look for Clayton to earn the starting spot opposite Robinson given the Rams preference to have Amendola play out of the slot and the team’s other options at the position.
Gilyard struggled in the preseason and is also better suited to the slot. Gibson and Burton are best suited to playing outside but neither player has the pedigree or playmaking ability that Clayton possesses.
While it’s hard to get excited about a wide receiver coming to a team that struggled as bad on offense as the Rams did in 2010 and who will be starting a rookie quarterback, Clayton’s fantasy prospects shouldn’t be dismissed.
He has an opportunity to earn significant playing time and the Rams figure to be behind early and often so Clayton will earn garbage time fantasy points in 2010. His fantasy outlook was persona non grata in Baltimore but in St. Louis, he has the potential to be a solid backup for your fantasy squad with decent upside.
By: Dave Stringer — August 17, 2010 @ 9:44 am
With their options at running back dwindling and the market for running backs heating up, the 49ers moved quickly to solidify the position, signing former Eagle Brian Westbrook.
The signing comes as a surprise as the 49ers had not had Westbrook in for a visit and he was reportedly mulling offers from division rival St. Louis, Denver and Washington over the past several weeks.
The Redskins were considered the front-runners given Westbrook’s relationship with quarterback Donovan McNabb and the team’s concerns over their group of aging running backs. St. Louis was also rumoured to have strong interest but Westbrook’s desire to play for a contending team ruled out the Rams.
With top backup Glen Coffee unexpectedly retiring, rookie sixth-round pick Anthony Dixon looking overwhelmed and the team not sold on former quarterback Michael Robinson at the position, the 49ers were forced to make a decision on Westbrook quickly. Credit their management with being proactive in acquiring a player of Westbrook’s pedigree on short notice.
Reports indicate the contract is for one year and will pay Westbrook $1.25-million and includes incentives equal to that amount.
The 30-year old Westbrook is coming off a season in which he suffered two concussions, causing him to miss eight games. He finished the season with 274 rushing yards and 181 receiving yards to go along with two touchdowns – easily his lowest production since his rookie season.
During his eight years in the league, the former Villanova product has amassed 5,992 rushing yards, 3,790 receiving yards and 66 touchdowns.
Although Westbrook has hit the dreaded 30-year-old mark for running backs (he will be 31 on opening day), he was productive when in the lineup in 2009, averaging 4.5 yards per carry. However, given his age and injury issues, he is clearly viewed as a backup capable of assuming a change of pace, receiving role and filling in as a starter.
Westbrook is an intriguing player for fantasy purposes, given his history of production and ability to produce in a limited capacity as a receiving threat out of the backfield. The 49ers have surrounded quarterback Alex Smith with excellent young talent at the skill positions and along the offensive line which should allow Westbrook to put up reasonable production provided he can stay healthy.
The knock on Westbrook has been that he is injury prone, however, a closer look reveals that not to be the case. In his first seven years in the league, he played in 99 of 112 regular season games. Clearly, the concussion issue is a significant one but Westbrook is definitely worth taking a flier on in fantasy leagues and should be considered an essential handcuff for Frank Gore owners.
As for Gore, Westbrook is no threat to take his starting position. Clearly Westbrook is a more proven player than Dixon and his presence will likely cause Gore to lose some playing time but nothing that should concern his fantasy owners. Gore’s fantasy ranking should not drop as a result of team acquiring Westbrook.
When a veteran with a solid resume lands with a new team, the biggest fantasy loser is usually a player who is likely to lose playing time or even a roster spot. However, Dixon wasn’t expected to contribute in 2010 anyway and likely wouldn’t have received any significant playing time, barring a Gore injury.
Instead, Westbrook’s signing in San Francisco makes the Rams the biggest loser from a fantasy perspective. Once again, St. Louis figures to enter the season without a quality option backing up their best player, Steven Jackson. The fact Westbrook signed with a hated division rival only adds to the disappointment.
By: Dave Stringer — May 31, 2010 @ 10:11 am
A little over a month into his career with the Seattle Seahawks, LenDale White was released by the club on Friday.
End of the road for LenWhale?
The Seahawks acquired White and defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson during the NFL draft in April in exchange for the teams swapping fourth and sixth round draft choices. Although the cost to acquire White was minimal, it was a shock that his former college head coach Pete Carroll would release him prior to training camp.
However, general manager John Schneider’s comments regarding the decision to release White left little to the imagination. Schneider commented that White, “was not ready to be a member of the Seattle Seahawks” and that he does, “not appear to be the right fit at this point in our program.”
Reports also indicate that White is facing a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, although the Seahawks were apparently aware of that at the time of the trade.
The looming suspension explains why the team was able to acquire White at such a minimal cost.
The 25 year old White is coming off the least productive season of his four-year career, finishing 2009 with 222 yards rushing on 64 carries to go along with two touchdowns. During the 2008 and 2009 seasons, White accumulated 1,883 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Entering 2009, it was expected that White would continue to pair with Chris Johnson in a thunder and lightning backfield but Johnson’s emergence as perhaps the league’s best running back left White with only a minimal role in the team’s offense.
For White, this could very well be the end of the road for him in the NFL. He has been mostly a bust during his career and is likely viewed by most team’s as a marginal talent whose production does not overcome the many issues that he has had.
Expect White to remain a free agent and perhaps an option if a team suffers an injury at the position during the preseason.
The biggest winner from White’s release has to be Julius Jones. When the team acquired White and former New York Jet Leon Washington during the draft, it was expected that Jones would be jettisoned by the club because Justin Forsett is a similar player with a much cheaper salary.
However, Jones now figures to compete with Forsett for the starting role during preseason while Washington recovers from a horrific leg injury suffered last year. Louis Rankin and Quinton Ganther are also on the roster but neither player is likely to earn much playing time in the team’s base offense.
While White’s release provides Jones with an opportunity to earn a roster spot, expect the diminutive Forsett to earn the starting role on opening day. Jones’ Seahawks career has been marred by inconsistency and an inability to run the ball inside the red zone (1.8 yards per carry) and play well on the road (180 yards in 2009).
Forsett displayed much more big play ability than Jones in his first extended playing time in 2009, finishing with 619 yards rushing to go along with 350 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. He finished the year with an impressive 5.4 yards per carry rushing average and averaged 8.5 yards per reception.
However, while Forsett may win the job on opening day, it is likely that Washington will be given an opportunity to earn a significant role once he returns to full health.
With so many questions marks in the Seahawks backfield, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team were to acquire another veteran rusher to add to the mix. Marshawn Lynch’s days in Buffalo appear to be numbered and Brian Westbrook remains on the market.
With the Seahawks in a rebuilding mode and issues along the offensive line and at quarterback, the Seahawks backfield is certainly one to avoid when drafting your fantasy football squad in 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — April 21, 2010 @ 11:22 pm
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The NFL announced that Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will receive a six game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
The suspension comes as a result of Roethlisberger being involved in two separate police investigations alleging sexual assaults within a nine month period. The league ordered Roethlisberger to undergo a comprehensive behavioural evaluation and the outcome of that evaluation as well as his conduct prior to the season will determine whether to reduce the suspension to four games.
The suspension is a huge blow to a Steelers team that was expected to compete with the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Without Roethlisberger available for at least four games, a Steelers squad that came within a game of a playoff berth in 2009 faces tougher odds of qualifying for a 2010 post-season berth.
In addition, reports indicate that the Steelers are willing to listen to trade offers for Roethlisberger provided they receive a top ten pick in the upcoming rookie draft. Of the teams that possess those picks, only the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars might consider pursuing a trade with the Steelers. The Cleveland Browns would likely have interest but a trade between the AFC North foes is a remote possibility.
Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro and finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009. The Steelers moved to a more pass-based offense last year with three solid wide receivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and second year speedster Mike Wallace.
However, Holmes was traded to the Jets and the team is expected to move to more of ground based attack in 2010.
Nonetheless, his fantasy prospects for 2010 were still solid but are now clearly diminished with the suspension. Assuming a four game suspension, drafting Roethlisberger becomes costly considering he offers zero in return to start the season, and risky unless you plan on having three quarterbacks on your roster during the suspension.
The biggest winner from a fantasy perspective is running back Rashard Mendenhall, who figures to see an increased workload early in the season. He moves up a few spots and into the top ten at running back, ranked ninth.
The biggest fantasy loser from the suspension is obviously Roethlisberger but Ward, Wallace and tight end Heath Miller also move down in the rankings with backup quarterback Dennis Dixon the likely replacement.
Dixon doesn’t have Roethlisberger’s accuracy or touch on deep balls. Expect teams to play the Steelers wide receivers tight on short and intermediate routes, at least until Dixon proves capable of hitting his wideouts deep.
Wallace was considered a breakout candidate and still should be but he moves to WR4 status given his bread and butter is big plays. Ward isn’t expected to see much of a drop but fantasy owners should be leery of drafting him as a WR2. With concerns about his age and now the quarterback play for at least four games, he looks much more attractive as a WR3.
Miller is coming off a career year in which he finished with 789 yards and six touchdowns, good enough to be the ninth ranked fantasy tight end. He moves from being a borderline starter to a solid backup for fantasy purposes.
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