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Jason Katz | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Ten Things I Noticed from the FFToday July PPR Mock
7/26/16


This is my second year reviewing the July Mock. With every year of experience playing this game that we love, I learn more. I learn new things; new concepts; new ideas. I learn some things I didn’t even know were there to learn. But one thing that’s remained constant over the years is the value and purpose of mock drafts. I wrote the following two paragraphs last year as an intro - here they are again to get your mind focused on the information to come.

Editor's Note: You can view the full FFToday July PPR Mock resuts here.

I once had a friend ask me what the point of a mock draft is. Much of the excitement and enjoyment of a draft is eyeing that player you want and actually being able to draft and root for him all season. A mock is not real. You don’t actually own any of those players. And it’s not like your actual drafts will mimic your mock drafts. This attitude made me realize that many people do not understand the underlying purpose of mocks – to educate you.

This article is going to discuss one mock conducted in July, roughly six weeks before the heart of draft season. A lot is going to change between now and then. Player perception will change. Player value will change. ADPs will rise and fall. Players will get injured. Your actual draft will look much different than this mock that I am about to discuss. So what’s the point of discussing it at all? This may be repetitive to some, if not most of you, but it’s important to be reminded why we conduct mock drafts. When reviewing this particular mock and reading this article, remember to focus on the concepts; focus on the why, not the what, or the who. Let’s get to it.

1. I noticed 14 WRs were drafted in the first two rounds (15 pass catchers if you count Rob Gronkowski).

That is an unprecedented number of receivers going in the top two rounds. Five teams went WR-WR. Meanwhile, just one team went RB-RB. This early round logic comports with the continued wide receiver takeover in fantasy football. For years, running backs dominated this game but that is not the case anymore. Wide receivers are perceived as safer picks with lower bust rates (Although Steve Schwarz’s article from July 15 begs to differ). This is a trend unlikely to change between now and when we draft for real in late August/early September. With the incredible depth at the WR position, if you want an edge over your competitors early, you need two top guys.

2. I noticed that the rookie love affair stemming from the incredible 2014 class is all but over.

After Ezekiel Elliott went 14th overall, the next rookie, Corey Coleman, came off the board 67 picks later as the 9th selection in the 7th round. To put things in perspective, the July 2015 Mock saw six rookies selected in the first 67 picks. It took a year, but people are beginning to remember that 2014 was the exception, not the rule. Historically, rookies do not perform well. There were only 11 rookies drafted in total and other than Zeke, none of them were done with any expectation of high level production. While I don’t think the ceilings of Coleman and Sterling Shepard (the No.2 and No.3 rookies selected) are very high in 2016, if they finish the year as top 36 WRs, then the owners that drafted them got a positive return on their investment. That is the attitude more people need to take towards rookies and it was showcased quite well in this mock.

Cam Newton

QB Early? No thanks. There's no doubt fantasy owners are embracing the wait-on-a-QB approach.


3. I noticed the continued devaluation of the QB position.

Cam Newton was the first quarterback off the board at No.33 overall. Last year, Andrew Luck was going in the first round. In the July 2015 Mock, every team had their starting QB by the end of the 8th round. This year, only eight teams took a quarterback by the same point. Most telling about this year is how many viable starting quarterbacks there are in the double digit rounds. I see a clear top 5, in no particular order: Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Andrew Luck, and Ben Roethlisberger (Tom Brady would make six if he wasn’t missing 25% of the season). After these guys, I don’t see much separation between the rest. You could rank the next 10-12 guys in any order and I’d be okay with it. That philosophy was illustrated in this mock by the number of quarterbacks taken in the rounds 10-13. This year more than ever, wait on a QB.

4. I noticed that Jscott essentially went “Zero-WR” and it backfired.

I know Gronk performs like a WR1, but he is not a WR, he is a TE. Jscott did not draft his first wide receiver until the 4th round. I am actually quite high on Jordan Matthews this year, but not as anyone’s No.1 WR. Even if we assume JMatt performs well, his next two wide receivers are rookies (Coleman and Kevin White, who is in his second year but is a de facto rookie by virtue of not playing the entire 2015 season). He is relying on a lot of unknowns to carry his team. While I do not endorse a Zero-WR approach, I also don’t like the execution of the strategy. If you are going to ignore WR early, you need to draft two elite running backs. Instead, Jscott went with Devonta Freeman, who likely just had his career best season and Latavius Murray. Murray is another player I am higher on than most, but doesn’t provide a high enough ceiling for an RB2 under this strategy. Given the amount of question marks, it is equally surprising that the bench is so weak. Drafting a second TE when you own Gronk is unwise. Drafting Jameis Winston to backup Newton is unnecessary. I hate to single out Jscott – I’m sure he’s a nice guy – but this draft was downright awful (hey, that’s why we practice right?).

5. I noticed that Ralphster, contrary to Jscott, went “Zero-RB.”

I am not an advocate of Zero-RB either, but I believe Ralphster executed the strategy very well. His first four picks were WRs, anchored by megastar Odell Beckham Jr. I am not a fan of Jarvis Landry in the second round or Golden Tate in the third round, but that comes down to personal opinion on players; they are not objectively bad picks. I do like Michael Floyd in the fourth as I think he will finish the year as Arizona’s top scoring wide receiver. Where Ralphster really flourished was in his choice of running backs. Carlos Hyde in the 5th round is an absolute steal. Hyde should be going late-3rd/early-4th at the latest as he showcased his tremendous talent last year and now is the centerpiece of Chip Kelly’s offense, who for all his failings, loves to run the football. Hyde is on a weak offense, but in a PPR format, the combination of volume and ability could push RB1 value, even if the touchdown numbers aren’t eye-popping. While Hyde fell into his lap, Ralphster made more excellent selections in Matt Jones (6th round), T.J. Yeldon (8th round) and Derrick Henry (11th round).

My opinions on these players aren’t what’s important. Instead, focus on the type of players he targeted. Jones is currently slated to be the primary ball carrier in Washington. Yeldon is on the wrong end of a timeshare, but likely has standalone FLEX value and is one Chris Ivory injury (something quite common in his career) away from being a rock solid RB2. Similarly, Henry is one DeMarco Murray injury away from RB2 value. When going Zero-WR, you want RBs that have a clear path to increased value. Giovani Bernard, Charles Sims, and Jordan Howard are other prime examples of “one step away” RB2s.

6. I noticed four owners drafted either a bench WR or RB before completing their starting lineup (3 WRs, 2 RBs):

Iceman, Ralphster, Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver, and Robb. Iceman decided to go with Danny Woodhead as a bench RB before taking Marvin Jones two rounds later to complete his starting WR corps. I would say this decision worked out as he did not pass on anyone leaps and bounds better than Jones to select Woodhead. The decision made his team better. Ralphster, as we discussed, went Zero-RB, and I think he made smart decisions. Ray Lewis’ Limo Driver, like Iceman, drafted a third RB before a third WR. Unfortunately, I think he waited too long to grab that third WR (Steve Smith, 8th round). He drafted DeMarco Murray in the 5th round, pacing up on more reliable, higher upside players. I do not like Murray, but he wasn’t necessarily the problem here. The problem occurred when RLLD passed on a third WR in the 6th and 7th rounds. His team would look a lot better with Allen Hurns, Michael Crabtree or perhaps John Brown at the WR3 spot instead of the injured Tyler Eifert at TE in the 6th round.

Finally, we have Robb who started out with Adrian Peterson and then rattled off four consecutive wide receivers. It appears Robb came into this draft with a plan: only draft guys who are either really old or really young. His first two picks were players over 30 (AP and Jordy Nelson). Then he went with three wide receivers age 25 or younger and then two sophomore RBs, which is the point at which he failed. Given the timing of this mock in relation to the Dolphins signing Arian Foster, he was able to fix his Jay Ajayi selection by taking Foster in round 12, but obviously had Foster been signed before this mock began, he would’ve been long gone. There were at least five RBs drafted after Melvin Gordon (robb’s pick at 7.10) that I would’ve drafted (Jonathan Stewart to name one). I don’t think Robb’s strategy failed, but rather his execution. I don’t mind the fourth wide receiver before the second running back, I simply would have selected different RBs.

7. I noticed 8 Steelers drafted, the most from any NFL team.

It’s no secret that the Steelers are the top NFL team in terms of fantasy relevance. I can’t remember the last time (if ever?) one team had both the No.1 ranked WR and No.1 ranked RB. Even with the loss of Martavis Bryant, the Steelers still saw the most players drafted in this mock. In addition to Antonio Brown and Le’Veon Bell, the Steelers have a top 5 quarterback in Ben Roethlisberger, a top 12 tight end in Ladarius Green, an extremely capable and proven handcuff running back in DeAngelo Williams, and two wide receivers that each (but not both) could find a way into WR3 value in Markus Wheaton and Sammie Coates. There is a lot to like about the Steelers offense this year and it would behoove fantasy owners to get them a piece. (Note: this mock occurred before news broke about Bell’s missed drug tests. Williams’s ADP should jump now that he is starting the first four weeks.)

8. I noticed three 49ers were drafted, the least from any NFL team.

This is sad. The great San Francisco 49ers have fallen so far that a mere three players from their team were deemed worthy of being on fantasy rosters and only Carlos Hyde was drafted as a starter. Torrey Smith, is hoping to return to the boom or bust WR3 he was in Baltimore and Bruce Ellington is trying to carve out WR5 value. Quinton Patton, Eric Rogers, and DeAndre Smelter are nothing more than late-round dart throws. In the backfield, Hyde does not have a clear handcuff and won’t be in a timeshare making other 49er running backs unappealing. And for the sake of the women and children who may be reading this, let’s not talk about a quarterback situation that comes down to a battle between Colin Kaepernick and Blaine Gabbert. The 49ers have the worst roster in the NFL and it shows. Hyde is the only piece of this offense you should have any interest in.

9. Everyone drafted a kicker.

Each owner was required to draft a kicker in this mock, but I wanted to mention that forgoing the position in your draft is a very underrated strategic move, especially for anyone that drafts before the third preseason game. Kickers, as we know, are both unpredictable and replaceable. The difference between the No.1 scoring kicker and No.12 scoring kicker is less than 2 points per week. If you are drafting early, why not throw one more dart at a WR or RB and pickup a kicker after the preseason ends? On a similar note, the strategy can be applied to drafting or not drafting a defense.

10. I noticed the draft position of these four players…

Carlos Hyde - It’s not without a bit if irony that Hyde was also featured in this section last year, but under completely different circumstances. I was all out on Hyde and thought he was being overdrafted. This year, I’ve done a complete 180. I mentioned earlier my reasons for liking Hyde, but I find it interesting that people will gladly take Todd Gurley in the first round despite his similarly awful situation, but fear Hyde. Please do not take this as me comparing the talents of Hyde to Gurley – yes, Gurley is better. However, is Gurley four rounds better than Hyde? I don’t think so. I’d be willing to grab Hyde as early as the middle of the third round. Remember, your goal is to find players who will likely be drafted at a higher ADP in 2017. I expect Hyde to be a second round pick next year, which would mean a positive return on investment for 2016.

Jeremy Langford - Here are some things Langford does not do well: run the football, catch the football, pass block. These things are kind of important for an NFL running back. Langford was the least elusive back in the league last year in terms of broken tackles, somehow managing to only break seven all season. He was last in the league in yards after contact. He had the highest drop rate amongst running backs that qualify. He was also one of the worst pass blocking backs in the league, which will lead to him being taken off the field during passing situations. Jordan Howard may not be the second coming of Adrian Peterson, but he was drafted with a purpose and at worst, will be the other half of a timeshare. When this is all said and done, I think we’re looking at a 50-30-20 split between Howard-Langford-Carey. With a 4th/5th round ADP, I want both a higher floor and a higher ceiling than Langford.

Tyler Lockett - This draft saw Lockett as the 76th player off the board. I am hard pressed to believe there are 75 players better than Lockett this season. I’ve been consistently seeing Lockett go in the 6th/7th round range and I think that’s absolutely criminal. I think Lockett surpasses Doug Baldwin this year as Seattle’s top receiver and returns 3rd round value. He played on 61 percent of Seattle’s snaps last season and I expect that number to be above 70 percent this season. If you can make Lockett your WR3 or Flex player, you will be very happy with the outcome.

Russell Wilson - I’ve made it clear that I’m a proponent of the wait on a QB strategy, but I want to talk about Russell Wilson. Wilson went in the early 5th round and was the third QB off the board behind Newton and Rodgers. I would not take Wilson any earlier than the 5th round, but I’m going to be a bit hypocritical here and tell you why it’s not the worst idea. I think Wilson finishes 2016 as the No.1 fantasy quarterback. The reason I advocate waiting on a quarterback is because there typically is no value to be had by paying top dollar for a top of the line QB, even if you know what you’re getting. Wilson is not being drafted that way. Credit to Frozenbeernuts for making Wilson the third QB selected because I’ve seen him go behind Luck and even Roethlisberger at times.

The draft value of QBs has an ebb and flow. One year you’ll see a handful going in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. The next year you won’t see more than one QB go before round 5. I think next year, Wilson will be one of, if not the only QB being talked about in rounds two and three. That does not necessarily make him worth a pick over a RB or WR that you expect a similar production from, but it’s something to consider in the 5th/6th round if you’re not in love with anyone at either position.

On a final note, remember that every mock is different. Take a look at the June mock compared to this one and you’ll see how very different they are. You can and should try different strategies and approaches and decide what works for you. Even the failed strategies or strategies you don’t agree with can be learning tools. I hope reading this article helps you as much as writing it helped me.





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