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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 28, 2011 @ 10:14 am
Looking to bolster a wide receiver depth chart devoid of playmakers, the Seattle Seahawks landed Sidney Rice, the premier wide receiver available in free agency.
 Rice is reunited with offensive coordinator Darren Bevell. The acquisition of Rice immediately upgrades the Seahawks’ passing attack, providing their starting quarterback with a true No. 1 wide receiver, a role Mike Williams was ill-suited for. Who will be starting at quarterback for the Seahawks remains a major question mark, with Charlie Whitehurst and the recently signed Tarvaris Jackson expected to compete in training camp and through the preseason.
Chosen in the second round of the 2007 draft, Rice did little during his first two years in the league before reaching the Pro Bowl in 2009. With Brett Favre at quarterback, Rice had 83 receptions for 1,312 yards and eight touchdowns.
His production fell dramatically in 2010, however, as poor quarterback play and a hip injury suffered at the end of the 2009 season limited him to just 17 receptions for 280 yards and a pair of scores over six games.
Fantasy Impact
Prior to the Vikings’ acquisition of Donovan McNabb, moving to Seattle would have made little difference to Rice’s fantasy prospects, with each team having major question marks at quarterback. But while McNabb is clearly on the downside of his career, he represents an obvious upgrade over rookie first-round pick Christian Ponder in Minnesota, as well as over the Seahawks’ pair of Whitehurst and Jackson.
In addition, the Vikings’ offense features more talent at the skill positions and along the offensive line than Seattle’s. That figures to limit Rice’s touchdown count with the Seahawks.
In Seattle, Rice will be reunited with former Vikings offensive coordinator Darren Bevell, so he should make a smooth transition to the Seahawks offense—always a concern when a wide receiver joins a new team.
While that is a positive, Rice’s fantasy value takes a hit with his move to Seattle because the Seahawks are likely to struggle with a pair of unproven quarterbacks and a rushing attack that also has major question marks. Rice remains a WR3 but moves down a couple of notches in the rankings, and the odds of him having a big season are far less likely in Seattle than they would have been in Minnesota.
By: Dave Stringer — May 31, 2010 @ 10:11 am
A little over a month into his career with the Seattle Seahawks, LenDale White was released by the club on Friday.
 End of the road for LenWhale? The Seahawks acquired White and defensive tackle Kevin Vickerson during the NFL draft in April in exchange for the teams swapping fourth and sixth round draft choices. Although the cost to acquire White was minimal, it was a shock that his former college head coach Pete Carroll would release him prior to training camp.
However, general manager John Schneider’s comments regarding the decision to release White left little to the imagination. Schneider commented that White, “was not ready to be a member of the Seattle Seahawks” and that he does, “not appear to be the right fit at this point in our program.”
Reports also indicate that White is facing a four-game suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, although the Seahawks were apparently aware of that at the time of the trade.
The looming suspension explains why the team was able to acquire White at such a minimal cost.
The 25 year old White is coming off the least productive season of his four-year career, finishing 2009 with 222 yards rushing on 64 carries to go along with two touchdowns. During the 2008 and 2009 seasons, White accumulated 1,883 yards and 22 touchdowns.
Entering 2009, it was expected that White would continue to pair with Chris Johnson in a thunder and lightning backfield but Johnson’s emergence as perhaps the league’s best running back left White with only a minimal role in the team’s offense.
Fantasy Impact
For White, this could very well be the end of the road for him in the NFL. He has been mostly a bust during his career and is likely viewed by most team’s as a marginal talent whose production does not overcome the many issues that he has had.
Expect White to remain a free agent and perhaps an option if a team suffers an injury at the position during the preseason.
The biggest winner from White’s release has to be Julius Jones. When the team acquired White and former New York Jet Leon Washington during the draft, it was expected that Jones would be jettisoned by the club because Justin Forsett is a similar player with a much cheaper salary.
However, Jones now figures to compete with Forsett for the starting role during preseason while Washington recovers from a horrific leg injury suffered last year. Louis Rankin and Quinton Ganther are also on the roster but neither player is likely to earn much playing time in the team’s base offense.
While White’s release provides Jones with an opportunity to earn a roster spot, expect the diminutive Forsett to earn the starting role on opening day. Jones’ Seahawks career has been marred by inconsistency and an inability to run the ball inside the red zone (1.8 yards per carry) and play well on the road (180 yards in 2009).
Forsett displayed much more big play ability than Jones in his first extended playing time in 2009, finishing with 619 yards rushing to go along with 350 receiving yards and five total touchdowns. He finished the year with an impressive 5.4 yards per carry rushing average and averaged 8.5 yards per reception.
However, while Forsett may win the job on opening day, it is likely that Washington will be given an opportunity to earn a significant role once he returns to full health.
With so many questions marks in the Seahawks backfield, it wouldn’t be a surprise if the team were to acquire another veteran rusher to add to the mix. Marshawn Lynch’s days in Buffalo appear to be numbered and Brian Westbrook remains on the market.
With the Seahawks in a rebuilding mode and issues along the offensive line and at quarterback, the Seahawks backfield is certainly one to avoid when drafting your fantasy football squad in 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — May 14, 2010 @ 10:07 am
It appears that the once dormant market for former Philadelphia Eagles running back Brian Westbrook is heating up. Fresh off a trip to the Washington Redskins, Westbrook is in Denver visiting the Broncos.
The Broncos’ interest appears to be serious, as reports indicate that the NFL free-agent Westbrook cancelled an engagement in Washington to head to Denver immediately after meeting with the Redskins.
Westbrook visited St. Louis two weeks ago, where he passed his physical and was offered a contract by the Rams. In St. Louis, he would be reunited with former Eagles quarterbacks coach Pat Shurmur, who is the Rams’ offensive coordinator, and runs the same offense that the Eagles use.
The 30 year old Westbrook is coming off a season in which he suffered two concussions, causing him to miss eight games. He finished the season with 274 rushing yards and 181 receiving yards, to go along with two touchdowns, easily his lowest production since his rookie season.
During his eight years in the league, the former Villanova product has amassed 5,992 rushing yards, 3,790 receiving yards, and 66 touchdowns.
Although Westbrook has hit the dreaded 30 year-old mark for running backs (he will be 31 on opening day), he was productive when in the lineup in 2009, averaging 4.5 yards per carry.
However, given his age and injury issues, he is clearly viewed as a backup capable of assuming a change of pace, be it a receiving role, or as a fill-in.
Both the Redskins and Broncos are deep at running back with Washington featuring three older backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson, and Willie Parker. However, the only major financial commitment is to Portis.
In Denver, the Broncos will start second-year player Knowshon Moreno, and have Correll Buckhalter and J.J. Arrington in reserve.
Former Eagles quarterback Donovan McNabb is apparently pushing Redskins management, as well as new head coach Mike Shanahan, on the merits of adding his former teammate Westbrook to the roster.
Although the Redskins’ and Broncos’ interest in Westbrook seems genuine, former San Diego Charger LaDainian Tomlinson’s signing with the New York Jets likely provides the best clues as to where Westbrook will emerge.
Tomlinson wound up on a Jets team that runs the ball heavily, and has a player ahead of him on the depth chart with a limited resume of success. Hence, Tomlinson has a bigger opportunity to carve out a significant role with the Jets than he did with the Minnesota Vikings, his other suitor.
Of the three teams interested in Westbrook, the Rams figure to provide him with the most opportunity for playing time. Their feature runner, Steven Jackson, has a history of dealing with injuries and just underwent back surgery, and there is no proven backup on the roster.
The team’s wide receivers feature young, and up-and-coming players, and the depth chart at tight end features five players who have a combined 52 receptions in the NFL. Westbrook would likely be featured in the Rams offense even with Jackson healthy.
Fantasy Impact
Westbrook is an intriguing player for fantasy purposes, given his history of production, and ability to produce in a limited capacity as a receiving threat out of the backfield. Even on a team that figures to struggle offensively like the Rams, he will likely put up reasonable production provided he can stay healthy.
Although the knock on Westbrook has been that he is injury prone, a closer look reveals that not to be the case. In his first seven years in the league, he played in 99 of 112 regular season games.
Clearly, the concussion issue is a significant one, but Westbrook is definitely worth taking a later round flier on in fantasy leagues, especially if he winds up in St. Louis behind Jackson.
By: Dave Stringer — March 24, 2010 @ 10:16 am
As expected, the New Orleans Saints will not match the offer sheet that restricted free agent running back Mike Bell signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. The Saints won’t receive any draft pick compensation because Bell was an undrafted player who the Saints tendered at the lowest level.
Reports indicate the offer sheet was a one year contract for $1.7 million with $500,000 guaranteed and also included modest incentives as well as a no-trade clause. With a solid one-two punch of Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush and a desire to increase the role of third year power back Lynell Hamilton, the Saints decided against retaining Bell.
Bell is coming off a solid year in which he ran for 654 yards and five touchdowns in 13 games last season. He had success as a rookie in 2006 with Denver but bounced around the league in 2007 and 2008 before resurrecting his career in 2009.
In Philadelphia, Bell will provide another veteran presence behind LeSean McCoy and allow Leonard Weaver to concentrate on the fullback position. His acquisition reduces the likelihood of the team taking a running back in the rookie draft this year.
Fantasy Impact
The biggest winner with Bell moving to Philadelphia is Pierre Thomas. With Bell off the roster, the short yardage and goal-line work will fall to either Thomas or Hamilton. Hamilton lacks Bell’s experience so there is now a greater likelihood of Thomas getting increased touches at the goal-line.
Thomas moves up to 15th in my running back rankings with an increased likelihood of a breakout season.
Hamilton assumes Bell’s role in the offense but is unlikely to match Bell’s production from a year ago. Look for approximately 450 yards and 4-5 touchdowns from him.
In Philadelphia, Bell’s signing negatively impacts fullback and backup running back Leonard Weaver more than McCoy. Weaver figures to be relegated almost exclusively to fullback duties with Bell taking over in short yardage situations. Barring injury, Weaver is not worth owning except in leagues with deep rosters.
Bell is a proven short-yardage runner and figures to amass 500-600 yards and 5-6 touchdowns as part of a potent Eagles offense. The move is slightly negative for Bell from a fantasy perspective since he was expected to achieve similar production in New Orleans as he had last year.
The Saints run the ball far more frequently and effectively than the Eagles. While Bell’s touchdown production won’t suffer in Philadelphia, there is a risk that he won’t see enough carries to match his yardage total from 2009.
By: Dave Stringer — March 19, 2010 @ 1:12 pm
With the NFL free agent market cooling off until the restricted free agent market heats up, the number of important unrestricted free agent signings has slowed to a trickle. However, teams continue to fill their personnel needs for the 2010 season with more modest acquisitions through free agency and trades.
That the free agent market has included so few key signings comes as no surprise given teams’ increased propensity to retain their own free agents over the last few years, and the breakdown of labour negotiations which resulted in 2010 being an uncapped year. The latter point severely reduced the number of unrestricted free agents on the market due to players now requiring six years of experience before qualifying for unrestricted status.
Despite that, there were a number of interesting moves this week that will have fantasy implications for the 2010 season. Some of the players that changed teams this week could provide surprise fantasy value.
Charlie Whitehurst Traded to Seattle
This one qualifies as the most intriguing transaction of the week with the Seattle Seahawks swapping 2nd round picks in this year’s rookie draft and also giving up a 3rd round pick in 2011 to San Diego to acquire Charlie Whitehurst.
The ‘Hawks drop 20 spots in the 2nd round and also have reportedly agreed to a contract extension for Whitehurst that pays him $5 million per season.
Teams don’t pay backups $5 million a season unless they are all but guaranteed to become starters. With Seattle in a rebuilding mode under new head coach Pete Carroll and an injury-prone Matt Hasselbeck hitting 35 early in the season, there’s little doubt Whitehurst will be behind center at some point in 2010 barring a Seattle early season resurgence.
Whitehurst is an unknown commodity, not having thrown a regular season pass during his four years in the league. With the team’s offense expected to struggle and being led by an aging Hasselbeck or the inexperienced Whitehurst, you should downgrade the team’s wide receivers and tight end John Carlson. They carry significant fantasy risk with little upside given the quarterback situation.
Is Whitehurst a sleeper in Seattle? Not in 2010 and maybe not in dynasty leagues given the team’s aging starting wide receivers T.J. Houshmandzadeh and Deion Branch.
Delhomme to Start in Cleveland
If the Whitehurst situation was intriguing, this one is the head scratcher of the week. Cleveland trades a former 1st round pick in Brady Quinn, who never really had much of a chance to succeed, for a fullback, a 2011 6th round pick and a conditional pick in 2012. They also dumped former Pro Bowl quarterback Derek Anderson.
They did this all for the chance to install Delhomme as the team’s starting quarterback on a 2 year deal for a reported $7 million a season. This for a player who has over his last 12 games, thrown for 2,220 yards, nine touchdowns and 23 interceptions while completing less than 55% of his passes.
As with the Seattle wide receivers, avoid Cleveland’s wideouts and tight ends in 2010. In fact, the only useful offensive fantasy player on the roster is running back Jerome Harrison.
Quinn Traded to the Broncos
The Broncos gave up little to acquire Quinn and he will enter training camp with a chance to unseat Kyle Orton as the team’s starting quarterback in 2011. While Quinn has been dismal as a pro, there should be little argument with the notion that he had little to work with in Cleveland, particularly in 2009.
Of course, the other side of the argument is that there’s nothing to suggest that he’s bound for success in Denver in 2010 or even that he’ll push Orton to the bench. However, head coach Josh McDaniels may have seen enough from Orton to know that after five years in the league he’s not about to relinquish his role as a game manager.
Here’s betting that McDaniels gives Quinn every opportunity to win the job and that he does. Quinn’s motivation has never been questioned and it’s possible that the better supporting cast that resides in Denver will propel him from the fantasy backwaters to being a useful fantasy backup quarterback.
Orton was the 16th ranked quarterback in 2009, the team has talented young playmakers on offense and a solid, young offensive line so if Brandon Marshall returns, whoever wins the starting job could provide some upside to your fantasy squad next year.
Derek Anderson Signs with Arizona
Jettisoned by the Browns, Anderson quickly found a home with the Arizona Cardinals. The former Pro Bowl quarterback figures to play behind Matt Leinart, but there are mixed signals coming from the team’s coaching staff regarding where Anderson fits in.
A week ago Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt noted that Leinart would be the team’s anointed starter after he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins a Super Bowl. Then after Anderson signed, Whisenhunt claimed that Leinart was the starter.
However, Anderson’s deal is significant for a backup and reports indicate that it includes $7.25 million over two years with the chance to earn up to $18 million. While Leinart may be the starter heading into camp, Anderson’s deal suggests that the team certainly felt they needed competition for Leinart.
That should come as no surprise given his history off the field as well as his performance on it over the last few years.
Nonetheless, Leinart figures to win the job out of training camp and his fantasy situation is solid given the team’s cast of offensive skill position players, even with the departure of wide receiver Anquan Boldin to the Ravens.
However, while his fantasy situation is solid, he has done little to suggest that he is about to become an elite level quarterback overnight. More likely, he will struggle at times in 2010 and the team will almost certainly look to increase the use of their running attack behind 2009 1st round pick Chris Wells.
Leinart figures to be a mid to low end backup fantasy quarterback in 2010, albeit one with upside. In dynasty leagues, he’s certainly worth taking a chance on.
Johnson Signs on to Backup Portis in Washington
Former Chief Larry Johnson signed a two year deal for the chance to compete for playing time in Washington behind starter Clinton Portis. While Johnson has been an enigma for his entire career and is perhaps the most overrated fantasy running back over the last decade with just two 1,000 yard seasons out of seven in the league, his performance over the last few years hasn’t been as horrible as some would suggest.
He averaged 4.5 yards per carry in 2008 and would have topped 1,000 yards had he not missed four games due to his off the field transgressions. While his performance last year was poor, it seems clear that he is a player that plays best when his back is against the wall or when he is challenged.
His best years in the league came when he had to beat Priest Holmes out of the starting spot in Kansas City. In Washington, his career is on the line and he will be out of the league unless his performs.
In Washington, they might consider him the oldest running back on the roster since at 30, he is two years older than Clinton Portis. However, he’s carried the ball 775 fewer times in his career. He’s worth taking a flier on but certainly not worth reaching for.
By: Dave Stringer — March 15, 2010 @ 9:09 am
After a short free agent tour that saw him take trips to Minnesota and New York, LaDainian Tomlinson flew home to San Diego to mull his options and has chosen to join the New York Jets in 2010. Reports indicate he will sign a 2 year deal for over $5 million.
Tomlinson was looking for a chance to play on a contending team in 2010 but also wanted to be in a situation where he had the potential to get 10-15 carries a game. It should come as no surprise that he chose to sign with a Jets team that relies heavily on the run and features a much less proven number one guy relative to the Vikings. The Vikings also sport a solid passing game with Brett Favre at the helm.
The Jets were in the market for a veteran back after failing to renegotiate the final year on Thomas Jones’ contract and watching him move to Kansas City. Tomlinson’s signing may also be an indication that the team is concerned about Leon Washington’s recovery from a broken right fibula.
With Washington also a restricted free agent, the move to acquire Tomlinson now allows the Jets to consider taking draft pick compensation if another team signs Washington to an offer sheet they deem to be excessive. Washington was tendered at the 2nd round pick level.
Reports out of San Francisco indicate the 49ers are interested in a running back who can returns kicks. Washington is another logical destination for Leon Washington.
Fantasy Impact
In New York, Tomlinson joins a Jets team that led the league in rushing in 2010 with 2,756 yards and carries with 607, 140 more than the Vikings. Clearly, the Jets represented his best opportunity to get on the field and this in turns positively impacts his fantasy value.
Unfortunately he is coming off the worst year of his career with 730 yards rushing and 12 touchdowns while averaging 3.3 yards per attempt. In addition, he had just 154 yards receiving, well off his career average of 475 entering the season.
Fantasy wise the issue is, what does he have left? In considering Tomlinson’s performance, what is often overlooked is the deteriorating play of the Chargers’ offensive line over the last two seasons.
The Jets possess perhaps the league’s best run blocking offensive line. Last year, counting the game where Washington was injured, Shonn Greene averaged over 10 carries per game backing up Jones. Expect Tomlinson to average at least that many touches due to his superior receiving ability, something that kept Greene off the field in certain situations.
Tomlinson figures to approach but not exceed the 730 yards he had in 2009 with fewer than the 12 touchdowns he posted last year. Look for 600-650 yards and four to six touchdowns. If Washington goes elsewhere, Tomlinson also becomes the team’s receiving back. For Greene’s owners, he is a must have handcuff.
Greene was pegged as a low end RB2 with upside and he slides down a couple of spots in the rankings. He remains a solid option in all fantasy leagues but his value takes a hit due to the acquisition of Tomlinson and his lack of touches in the passing game. Greene failed to catch a pass in the regular season as a rookie. He caught one in three playoff games.
By: Dave Stringer — March 11, 2010 @ 1:37 pm
Almost one year after signing Laveranues Coles to be the team’s starting wide receiver opposite Chad Ochocinco, the Bengals have signed former Buc Antonio Bryant to provide the production Coles failed to. Bryant has signed for a reported $28 million over four years.
Bryant is coming off a down year in Tampa Bay which was partly due to knee surgery during training camp. The Bucs also used inexperienced quarterbacks for most of the year. In 13 games, he had 39 receptions for 600 yards and four touchdowns.
The Bengals are hoping that his knee is fully recovered and that he can duplicate his career year in 2008 when he had 83 receptions for 1,248 yards and seven touchdowns, all career highs. The team struggled in the passing game in 2009, finishing 26th in yards passing while featuring the league’s 9th best running attack.
Although Bryant isn’t a true burner, he is a strong, physical receiver who is adept at making acrobatic catches and is capable of getting deep, as evidenced by his career average yards per catch of 15.4.
Fantasy Impact
In Cincinnati, Bryant joins a team that morphed from being a passing team to a running team during the 2009 season. The team averaged just 181 yards passing last year and quarterback Carson Palmer had his worst year statistically since his second year in the league (excluding his injury shortened 2008 season).
With the Bengals making the playoffs using an offense based heavily on the run, there is little reason to suggest they will change that in 2010. Bryant figures to be more productive than Coles, who clearly lost a step in 2009, or Andre Caldwell and Jerome Simpson, 2nd year players last year who clearly were not ready for feature roles.
Bryant figures to slot in as a fantasy WR4 or WR5 with upside. However, look for him to be drafted higher than that based on his strong 2008 campaign and perhaps the unfounded belief that the Bengals will revert back to their pass happy ways. A season of 750 yards and 4-6 touchdowns seems likely.
Bryant’s presence should have no effect on Ochocinco but certainly hinders the prospects of Caldwell and Simpson as well as Matt Jones. Caldwell figures to get the work out of the slot with Jones being used more in the red zone. Simpson might be looking for employment elsewhere in 2010.
As for Palmer, his status as a fantasy backup remains unchanged. Ignore these stats at your own peril—only nine games with over 200 yards passing, one game with over 300 yards passing and just five multi-touchdown games. He moves up in the rankings with Bryant on board but remains a low end backup at this point.
By: Dave Stringer — March 10, 2010 @ 10:53 am
Kansas City has made its second major move in free agency, this time signing former Jets running back Thomas Jones to a 2 year contract for a reported $5 million. Jones’ signing comes on the heels of the team re-signing wide receiver Chris Chambers. The moves help solidify an offense that struggled during most of 2009.
Released by the Jets because of the emergence of Shonn Greene and because the team didn’t want to pay close to $6 million to a backup, Jones was one of the most sought after unrestricted free agent running backs.
The 31 year old player is coming off a career year in 2009, having amassed 1,402 yards rushing to go along with 14 touchdowns. During his three year stint in New York, Jones had 4,315 total yards and 31 touchdowns.
At an age where most running backs are wearing down significantly, Jones has been highly productive. Although he has topped 296 or more touches in each of the last six years, his highest number of touches during his first four years in the league was just 161. He is known for his heavy workout regime and that is a key factor in his success this late in his career.
In Kansas City, Jones figures to serve as the backup to Jamaal Charles, a dynamic young player who excelled in 2009 once given the chance to unseat Larry Johnson. The Chiefs obviously felt he was too young or, at 5’11”, 197 pounds, too small to carry the full load at the position, hence their signing of Jones, a more powerful back that Charles. The Chiefs also considered signing Willie Parker or Justin Fargas.
Fantasy Impact
The player with the biggest impact from this signing isn’t Jones because he was clearly going to carve out a role as either a starter or quality backup with potential goal line duties wherever he signed.
Charles figures to lose out significantly from a fantasy perspective with Jones now his backup. With Jones likely to assume the goal line work and get significant carries spelling Charles, Charles’ role will be significantly reduced from what it was over the last half of the 2009 season.
Simply put, Charles is a quality receiver who will likely get all of the work on passing downs, but the lack of goal line work means he can no longer be considered a low end RB1 or high end RB2. At this point, he should be considered a low end RB2 with upside in 12 team leagues or a high quality RB3 in 10 team leagues.
As for Jones, he figures to rush for between 700-800 yards and score 6-8 touchdowns in 2010. That production means he slots in as a RB3 in all leagues and becomes a desirable handcuff for Charles owners.
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