Passing
Game Thoughts: A third game against a team in a given
season is rarely the recipe for big time fantasy production and
that was this case this past week as Indianapolis’ Andrew
Luck threw for just 222 yards and two touchdowns with one interception
on the road against the Texans. That doesn’t compare favorably
to the previous two games he had against the Texans, but Luck’s
performance was good enough to make him one of the higher-scoring
fantasy quarterbacks during the wild card round and it should
give fantasy owners some confidence as Indianapolis stays on the
road and heads to Kansas City.
The Chiefs defense has been game-scripted into some tough fantasy
situations this season, but that’s actually a good thing
for Luck who will likely be relied on to throw heavily in this
contest in order to keep the Colts scoring at a pace equal to
or greater than the Chiefs. Luck has had some huge fantasy performances
this season and continues to primarily look to wide receiver T.Y.
Hilton as well as veteran tight end Eric Ebron who has really
broke out this year playing with Luck. Both players had solid
fantasy performances last week with Ebron scoring a touchdown
while Hilton led the team with five receptions for 85 yards and
they’re likely to again be the best fantasy producers in
the Indianapolis passing game this week in what should be a good
matchup.
The Chiefs quietly allowed the most fantasy points in the league
this season to opposing tight ends, including a league-most 10
touchdowns on the season, making the already highly interesting
Ebron even more enticing this week. Those in playoff fantasy formats
which only allow the use of a player once during the playoffs
would be wise to use Ebron in this game. The Colts’ other
two top receivers, Chester Rogers and Dontrelle Inman, could be
viable Flex options in this contest in a game where Indianapolis
could realistically throw the ball 40 or more times.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Running Game Thoughts: Indianapolis’ running game, led by
their much-improved offensive line and running back Marlon Mack
is hitting its stride right at the right time. Mack, the team’s
leading rusher, has now gone for 119 or more rushing yards in
three of his past four games, including this past week’s
124-yard performance on the road against the Texans. Even better
yet, for fantasy purposes, Mack has scored a total of six rushing
touchdowns over his past five games, including at least one each
week.
That type of production combined with a matchup against a Chiefs
defense that gave up the third-most fantasy points to opposing
running backs during the regular season has to have fantasy owners
excited about Mack this week. Kansas City gave up back-to-back
100-yard rushing days to Chris Carson and Doug Martin in their
final two games before the playoffs and how they face an Indianapolis
team that can not only grind the ball between the tackles, but
can also make use of their backs in the passing game. The team’s
primary pass catching back has been rookie Nyheim Hines who impressed
with 63 receptions during the regular season. That role does make
Hines viable in PPR formats as there is a possibility that the
Colts fall behind in this one, which would most likely lead to
a higher-than-usual snap share for Hines and a lower-than-usual
snap share for Mack. Still, Mack makes for a strong RB1 play in
what should be one of the better matchups of the week at the position
while Hines is a low-end RB2 in PPR formats only.
Passing
Game Thoughts: One of the favorites to win the 2018 NFL
MVP award, playing in his first full season, Patrick Mahomes now
gets a chance to show what he’s made of in the playoffs
as the Chiefs host the Colts this week. The Colts are coming off
of a big game where they held Deshaun Watson and the Texans to
just seven points with just 235 passing yards on the day, which
has to be at least a bit concerning for those banking on Mahomes.
Still, the Kansas City offense has been so good this season that
it seems to be almost silly to worry about practically any matchup.
Mahomes became just the third player in NFL history to throw for
50 touchdowns, which averages out to just over three touchdowns
per game over the course of the season. With he, Tyreek Hill and
Travis Kelce having the week off to rest and prepare for their
next game, it would seem obvious that Mahomes - and really Hill
and Kelce as well - should be the top players on the board at
their respective positions this week. One thing to note is that
wide receiver Sammy Watkins is also looking likely to return this
week, at least in some capacity, after having been out since his
Week 9 injury. Watkins is still heavily taped up and clearly not
100 percent, however, so don’t rely on him if you can avoid
it.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Running Game Thoughts: One of the most interesting stories to
watch this weekend will be the Kansas City Chiefs backfield, which
has been recently led by Damien Williams but was previously almost
exclusively owned by Spencer Ware. Ware missed each of the Chiefs’
final three games of the season which led to Williams stepping
in and producing some impressive fantasy numbers including 203
rushing yards, 14 catches for 109 yards and four total touchdowns
over those three games while Ware was out. It is believed that
Ware will be back at least in some capacity this week, but we
really don’t have a great gauge on what will happen. Andy
Reid has historically often favored veterans even when they’ve
been less productive than their younger counterparts, but that
might not be the case with a player who the team doesn’t
have much invested in with Spencer Ware, especially when he’s
dealing with an injury. It does seem likely that Ware will get
a full workload, so it’s probably best to avoid him in weekly
formats, but Williams is also risky due to the potential that
Ware plays enough snaps to really limit Williams’ upside.
Still, there’s a chance that Ware primarily plays on early
downs and limited snaps at that, which makes Williams an interesting
boom-or-bust option this week and potentially a big time tournament
player this week for DFS. The Colts didn’t give up a 100-yard
rusher all season and were able to hold the Texans’ running
backs to just 29 total rushing yards in the wild card round of
the playoffs, so this is a worrisome matchup for whoever the Chiefs’
leading runner ends up being.
Cowboys at Rams
- (Katz) Line: LAR -7.0 Total: 49.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Jared Goff averaged 19.1 fantasy points
per game this season. Yes, I just opened the Cowboys passing game
section by talking about the other team’s quarterback. I
feel like the consensus amongst fantasy gamers is that Goff had
a much better season than Dak Prescott. Over Prescott’s
final 10 games (excluding Week 17), he averaged 19.0 fantasy points
per game. In full playoff formats, while Prescott is a nice contrarian
play, it is exceedingly difficult to start him over anyone other
than maybe Nick Foles. With that being said, the Cowboys are touchdown
underdogs and will likely have to throw more than usual if they
want to win this game.
Amari Cooper is coming off a nine target game where he caught
seven balls for 106 yards. He’s a good bet to see 10+ targets
this week, especially with all of the injuries to the Cowboys’
pass catchers. Allen Hurns’ season ended last week with
a gruesome ankle injury. Cole Beasley is dealing with a sprained
ankle as well. Both he and Blake Jarwin have yet to practice this
week. In the playoffs, all bets are off for typical practice-play
procedures, but it is difficult to imagine Beasley or Jarwin being
too effective if they can’t practice this late in the week.
Remember, this is a Saturday game so the injuries should open
the door for Michael Gallup, who actually played 75% of the snaps
last week. The Rams allowed 82.7 receiving yards per game to opposing
WR1s this season, but if Beasley can’t go, Cooper may move
to the slot, putting Gallup in a position to benefit. With all
that being said, there are better options on most of the other
teams remaining.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Running Game Thoughts: Where you won’t find many superior
options on other teams is at running back. Ezekiel Elliott touched
the ball 30 times last week and is game script proof due to his
increased usage in the passing game. Zeke is not coming off the
field unless he is tired so even if the Cowboys go down two scores,
he will touch the ball through the air. That may be better for
fantasy purposes. And we know he’s getting the goal line
carries. Elliott is a do it all back and arguably a better play
than his counterpart in this game (more on that momentarily).
Passing
Game Thoughts: The way to beat the Cowboys is through
the air. They are playing in this game literally because Pete
Carroll is completely clueless when it comes to game planning
and making adjustments. Sean McVay is already 1000x the coach
that Carroll ever was and I fully believe he will come out throwing.
That bodes extremely well for fantasy owners looking to use Goff
as a way to gain an edge over the majority of owners that will
be using Mahomes or Brees. Byron Jones is an elite shutdown corner
and may give Brandin Cooks some trouble. Cooks is always a threat
to splash at any moment, but the real star this week is going
to be Robert Woods. The Cowboys have locked down outside receivers
this season, but struggle against the slot and since Cooper Kupp’s
injury, Woods has seen increased time in the slot. He’s
also been used on reverses and jet sweeps. Woods is a key part
of this offense and the path to breaking down the Cowboys defense.
Despite all the star receivers at your disposal this week, get
Woods in your lineup if you can.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley was completely erased by the
best run defense in the league a few weeks back in Chicago. The
Cowboys, while not as good as the Bears, are an excellent run
defense, finishing top five in DVOA. Continuing on my point in
the passing game, McVay is not going to make the same mistake
twice. Gurley is still involved in the passing game so by no means
am I expecting a disaster like he had against Chicago; I am merely
cautioning that if you’re looking for 20+ points, Zeke (along
with Alvin Kamara and possibly Damien Williams) might be better
options.
Chargers @ Patriots
- (Swanson) Line: NE -4.0 Total: 47.5
Passing
Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers threw for 160 yards and
zero touchdowns as the Chargers beat the tough Baltimore defense
on the road last week in the Wild Card round. Although Rivers
failed to throw a touchdown pass for the second time this season
against the Ravens, the Chargers defense picked up the slack,
and the running game of Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler provided
enough offense to survive and advance.
Rivers and the Chargers offense should find it much easier to
move the ball this week against a New England defense that finished
the regular season ranked 21st in yards per game (359.1). By comparison,
the Ravens allowed a league-best 292.9 yards per game and 42 fewer
points than the Patriots.
Opposing quarterbacks averaged 22.5 fantasy points per game against
the Patriots this season, with four QBs, including Patrick Mahomes
and Andrew Luck, topping 30 points in their respective game. As
one would expect of a Bill Belichick-led team, the Pats did an
excellent job limiting the production of below-average and rookie
quarterbacks like Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, Nathan Peterman, and
Brock Osweiler. While veteran signal callers, like Ben Roethlisberger,
Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford, found moderate
success moving the ball and limiting turnovers.
A key to this game will be Rivers ability to limit turnovers
in the passing game and giving Tom Brady and the Patriot offense
short fields. Rivers is tied with Cam Newton and Nick Mullens
for the most interceptions thrown over the final five games of
the regular season (six), and the 14-year veteran threw half of
his season total of picks in his last four games.
Another player to watch is receiver Mike Williams against cornerback
Jason McCourty on deep passes and explosive plays. New England
ranks 20th in explosive pass rate allowed according to Sharp Football,
and the Chargers will look to take advantage of the smaller McCourty
lined up against the 6’4” Williams.
Tight End Hunter Henry practiced all week and is expected to
play. It is unclear how many snaps he will get, but he will add
a more athletic option at tight end for Rivers, especially on
nine routes up the seam between the linebackers and safety. Future
hall of fame TE Antonio Gates has been solid this season, but
he lacks the speed and quickness to beat linebackers on go routes
and slants.
The opening week bye for New England allowed the Patriots to
rest and heal up for Sunday’s game. Only safety Devin McCourty
is listed on the injury report with a concussion, but he was able
to practice on Wednesday and should be ready to play this weekend.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: Melvin Gordon rushed for 885 yards and
10 rushing touchdowns on 175 carries this season for an impressive
5.1 yard per carry average. The former first-round pick from the
University of Wisconsin added a career-high 490 receiving yards
and four touchdowns in just 12 games.
Gordon is an elite back for both fantasy and real life football,
and one of the more dynamic scoring threats in the NFL. The problem
is he suffered an MCL sprain against Arizona Week 12 and missed
three games from Weeks 13 through 15. When he returned to the
field against Baltimore Week 16 he scored a rushing touchdown,
but he does not look as explosive as earlier in the season, especially
with regards to lateral movement and the ability to explode out
of cuts.
To make matters worse for the Chargers, Gordon sustained an injury
to his other knee last week against the Ravens. Gordon did return
to the game and does appear primed to start against the Patriots,
but don’t be surprised if he is limited and Ekeler is used
more than usual.
Only the Bears allowed fewer rushing touchdowns than the Patriots
this season, and only Kerryon Johnson of the Lions and Jaylen
Samuels of the Steelers have rushed for more than 100 yards against
the Pats in 2018.
One area that running backs did find success this year against
the Pats and something that the Chargers will no doubt look to
exploit is passing yards out of the backfield. New England ranked
9th in receiving yards to running backs, while the Chargers as
a team led the league in receiving yards among running backs.
Ekeler and Gordon in the passing game will be critical for the
Chargers to go into Foxboro and beat the Pats.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Tom Brady is set to start his NFL record
38th playoff game for the Patriots. A win over the Chargers would
give the first ballot hall of fame 28 wins by a quarterback, breaking
another of his many records. To put it in perspective, Brady has
started more playoff games than the seven remaining quarterbacks
in the playoffs combined.
From a fantasy perspective, Brady was a disappointment this season
with 21.8 fantasy points per game as the No.17 ranked QB. His
29 touchdown passes were the fewest in a 16 game season since
2013, while his 11 interceptions were the most committed in the
previous five seasons.
The New England offense did finish as the No.5 ranked unit in
yards per game and fourth in total points behind the Chiefs, Rams,
and Saints. The chess match between Brady and offensive coordinator
Josh McDaniels against Los Angeles defensive coordinator Gus Bradley
will be fun to watch. Bradley showed his skill and flexibility
as a DC last week by using four safeties instead of linebackers
to shut down the running game of Lamar Jackson and the Ravens.
Tight end Rob Gronkowski finished 2018 with the lowest fantasy
point-per-game average of his illustrious career (6.6), with just
682 yards and three touchdowns in 13 games. Gronk no longer moves
with the same quickness and is clearly hampered by a slew of injuries.
Despite this fact, he could be critical to the success of the
Patriots on Sunday, particularly in his ability to negate the
aggressive play of safety Derwin James in run support. James will
likely be tasked with covering Gronk in the passing game, and
Gronk’s success beating the Chargers and James on play action
could help negate one of the best young defensive players in the
league.
The cornerback tandem of Casey Hayward and Michael Davis allowed
the fifth-fewest points to opposing wide receivers this season
and only 14 total touchdowns in 16 games. The loss of Josh Gordon
to another off-field issue left the Patriots without a big and
fast weapon on the outside to push the field and keep safeties
honest. Look for Hayward and Davis to be asked to play single
coverage on Chris Hogan and Phillip Dorsett on the outside, with
Adrian Phillips and Jahleel Addae tasted with covering Julian
Edelman in the slot.
Arguably the most critical aspect of the game will be the ability
of Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram to get pressure on Brady without
Bradley resorting to blitzing. The Giants in years past gave teams
the blueprint on how to beat Brady and the Patriots with pressure
from the front four, and the Chargers have the players and the
scheme to run with that blueprint and upset New England on the
road.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Running Game Thoughts: This divisional playoff matchup pits two
of the two top- three rushing offenses in the league against each
other, with the No.2, ranked Chargers and Melvin Gordon facing
off against Sony Michel, and James White and the No.3 ranked Patriot
attack.
Not only did the Patriots finish as a top-10 unit in terms of
total rushing yards, but they were also the No.1 team in passes
to running backs out of the backfield, with seven more receptions
than the No.2 ranked Carolina Panthers.
Look for Brady to use quick dump off passes as screens to White
and Rex Burkhead to help mitigate the pass rush of Bosa and Ingram.
The Patriots likely anticipate having limited time for Brady to
pass going against the pass rush of the Chargers so that Brady
will use a quick passing game to Edelman in the slot and White/Burkhead
out of the backfield.
The one main Achilles heel for the Chargers defense is run defense.
Los Angeles ended 2018 allowing the 11-most point to opposing
running backs, with 11 opposing backs reaching double figures
in fantasy points. Look for Belichick to focus on running the
ball with Michel and Burkhead against the middle of the Chargers
defense and on counters and delayed draws in passing downs. The
Chargers will look to limit the Patriots and force them into third
and long plays that allow their stud pass rushers to get after
Brady. Conversely, the Patriots will look to run quick passing
plays and run the ball effectively to stay ahead of the chains
and mitigate the need for their receivers to get downfield.
Eagles @ Saints
- (Bales) Line: NO -8.0 Total: 51.0
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Saints have struggled to defend the
pass this season, allowing 269.0 passing yards per game. They
have also allowed 30 passing touchdowns, while recording only
12 interceptions. Nick Foles has performed well in six games this
season, averaging 279.8 yards and 1.5 touchdowns on 39.2 pass
attempts per game. He has looked particularly good in his last
three games, totaling 958 yards and eight touchdowns on 122 attempts.
Alshon Jeffery has only played four games with Foles this season,
but they have found quite a bit of success together. In those
four games, Jeffery is averaging 5.5 receptions for 95.8 yards
and 0.3 touchdowns on 6.8 targets per game. Over the last three
weeks Nelson Agholor has totaled 13 receptions for 188 yards and
three touchdowns on 19 targets. He was able to score 20+ fantasy
points in two of those three games, as well. Golden Tate hasn’t
seen as many targets as most were expecting when he was traded,
but he posted a 5/46/1 line on eight targets last weekend and
gets an elite matchup this weekend.
Zach Ertz has been one of the best tight ends in the NFL, averaging
7.1 receptions for 71.5 yards and 0.5 touchdowns on 9.6 targets
per game. New Orleans has only given up 5 TDs to the position,
but Ertz still makes an elite option. Dallas Goedert has been
playing a larger role in the offense recently, but he’s
still a risky option against a team that has looked outstanding
against tight ends.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Running Game Thoughts: New Orleans has featured one of the best
run defenses in the NFL this season, allowing only 80.2 rushing
yards per game. They have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns, but their
3.6 yards per carry is one of the lowest in the league. Darren
Sproles, Wendell Smallwood, and Josh Adams are splitting snaps,
and they are taking away each other’s value although Adams
was an afterthought last week seeing just one carry. Sproles makes
the best option of the trio, but he comes with far too much risk
to be considered in this difficult of a matchup.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Eagles are another defense that has
struggled against the pass this season. They’re allowing
269.0 passing yards per game, while also allowing 22 passing touchdowns.
Furthermore, they have only recorded 10 interceptions. Drew Brees
has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL, specifically
when playing at home. Through seven home games, Brees is averaging
321.6 yards and 3.0 touchdowns on 33.7 attempts per game. He also
threw for 363 yards and four touchdowns on only 30 pass attempts
in his only matchup against Philadelphia this season.
Michael Thomas has enjoyed an elite season, and he has also found
quite a bit of success at home. Through eight home games, he’s
averaging 8.5 receptions for 102.8 yards and 0.8 touchdowns on
10.0 targets per game. In his only game back from injury, Ted
Ginn posted a 5/74/0 line on eight targets, and he should resume
his normal role again this week. Tre’Quan Smith will also
find snaps in this game, but he has been far too inconsistent
to be considered in fantasy. The same can be said for tight end
Ben Watson, who has struggled to find a role in the offense.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Running Game Thoughts: Mark Ingram has featured plenty of ups
and downs, averaging 68.0 yards and 0.6 touchdowns on 13.3 touchdowns
per game. He’s a touchdown dependent running back, but New
Orleans is expected to score multiple touchdowns in this game.
Alvin Kamara is the better option out of the backfield. Through
15 games, he’s averaging 106.2 yards and 1.2 touchdowns
on 18.3 touches (5.4 receptions) per game. Kamara is a matchup
proof running back because of his ability to produce in the passing
game. On top of his rushing success, he’s averaging 7.0
targets per game. Philadelphia has looked great against the run,
allowing only 96.9 rushing yards per game. They have allowed 14
rushing touchdowns which bodes well for Kamara and Ingram.