Saints @ Seahawks - (Eakin)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints enter this game a double-digit favorite despite playing on the road in Seattle. With the Saints shorthanded at running back, the offensive game plan is likely to rest on quarterback Drew Brees’ shoulders. The Saints passing game should be firing on all cylinders with lead WR Marques Colston healthy after a knee scope and pass receiving threat Reggie Bush fully integrated back in the offense. The Seahawks finished the season ranked just 27th against the pass while the Saints are the third-best passing team. For the Seahawks to have a chance at stopping Brees and Co., they will need to bring pressure. Much of that responsibility will fall on the shoulders of DE Chris Clemons, who will be matched up against left tackle John Stinchcomb. Clemons finished the year with 11 sacks while Stinchcomb has had an up-and-down season dealing with shoulder issues. Clemons will have the added bonus of the Seattle 12th-man crowd noise that is famous for causing false starts and should be particularly raucous for the playoffs. Seattle lacks a lockdown cornerback to match up with wide receiver Marques Colston. Colston could have a big day using his size advantage. Running back Reggie Bush will also be a defensive matchup nightmare with his ability to out run the Seattle linebackers and safeties. With three quality TEs rotating, deep threats Robert Meachem and Devery Henderson added to the mix, Brees may have too many weapons across the field for Seattle to slow down.

Running Game Thoughts: With both Pierre Thomas and Chris Ivory on IR expect to see Reggie Bush and Julius Jones carry the mail from the backfield. Since Bush is more of a hybrid receiver, Julius Jones will shoulder most of the rushing load. Jones has looked decent at times this year, enough to offer the balance the Saints need to keep the defense honest. The main difference from last year to this year is the Saints running game ranks just 28th this year. I don't see Jones having a huge day but he may get some grind out the clock yards if the Saints develop a lead in the second half.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 340 yards/3 TDs/1 INT
Marques Colston: 100 yards/1 TD
Robert Meachem: 60 yards/1 TD
Jeremy Shockey: 45 yards
Reggie Bush: 40 yards/40 yards rec/1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Despite sitting out last week's critical win over the Rams, the Seahawks will go back to quarterback Matt Hasselbeck as the starter. An interesting decision considering it was Charlie Whitehurst winning the big game to get them into the playoffs. Hasselbeck is a better match up against the Saints because he is more of a timing passer. With the Saints defense excelling at confusing quarterbacks pre-snap and disguising blitzes, a precision timing offense is needed to help offset the pressure. However, the Seattle receivers may have a hard time finding openings against the Saints quality cover cornerbacks. Lead WR Mike Williams has had a great season but can sometimes struggle to get open due to his lack of elite speed. Despite the solid yardage, Williams only scored twice on the season, one of those being the critical score in last week's win. A wildcard could be on the opposite side with Ben Obomanu. Obomanu showed he could be a difference maker earlier in the year when Williams was out with injury. If the Seahawks stay in this game and keep it close, Obomanu may be a big part of the reason why.

Running Game Thoughts: The Seahawks running game has been hit or miss for much of the year even after the arrival of Marshawn Lynch. They should have increased confidence after last week's critical 75-yard rushing performance from Lynch last week. The underdog Seahawks will need a repeat performance to help control the clock and keep Brees off the field. It's not out of the realm of possibility as the Saints defense is just 16th against the run and beat up the linebacker spot. The Saints may also be without safety Michael Jenkins, which hurts their pass defense because of his speed, but opens the door for veteran Darren Sharper, who is terrific at blitzing and run support. Look for Sharper to play a big part in helping to shut down the Seahawks efforts to run the ball.

Projections:
Matt Hasselbeck: 270 yards/2 TDs/1 INT
Mike Williams: 65 yards/1 TD
Ben Obomanu: 70 yards/1 TD
John Carlson: 40 yards
Marshawn Lynch: 70 yards/1 TD

Prediction: Saints 31 Seahawks 24 ^ Top

Jets @ Colts - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: The New York Jets offense had been struggling prior to their Week 16 breakout against the Bears. Sanchez hadn’t thrown a touchdown pass since Week 12 and it was starting to look like the defense would have to carry the team into the playoffs. But in Week 16, things turned around when Sanchez and the offense put up 34 points against one of the league’s best defenses. Although Sanchez was responsible for only one touchdown, his 269 passing yards were his fourth-highest of the season and gave him and the passing game some serious momentum going into the playoffs. Despite playing in the game (likely to continue his ‘games started’ streak), Sanchez didn’t throw a pass in Week 17.

“The Sanchize” will play the most important game of his season this week as he and the Jets head to Indianapolis to face the Colts. With Indianapolis’ high-powered offense, Sanchez and his receivers will need to be on their game to keep up with Peyton Manning. The Colts have notoriously been excellent against the pass while their run defense has struggled. In 2010, though, neither aspect of the Colts defense has been particularly great. Ranked 17th at stopping opposing quarterbacks, the Colts haven’t been their usual selves. Still, Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis could make things tough on Sanchez as they remain the premier pass-rushing duo in the league. Sanchez has struggled against teams that force him to make quick decisions and this could be a tough game for him if he doesn’t get off to a quick start.

Running Game Thoughts: With LaDainian Tomlinson sitting, Week 17 looked like an opportunity for Shonn Greene to assert his fantasy dominance, but he was unexpectedly de-activated along with a good portion of the Jets offense for an irrelevant matchup against the Bills. Greene, considered one of the top potential breakout stars going into the season, broke 100 yards only once this season and scored only two measly touchdowns. With Greene and Tomlinson both out, Joe McKnight broke onto the fantasy scene with a huge 158-yard rushing performance—the best any Jets back has had this season.

With Tomlinson and Greene back this week, the Jets will face the Colts and their 21st-ranked fantasy run defense. They started the season off absolutely horribly, allowing a monumentally bad game to Arian Foster and the Texans. But since then, the Colts only allowed one game of more than one rushing touchdown despite allowing an average of over 100 yards rushing per game. Even after McKnight’s monster Week 17, Tomlinson and Greene are likely to touch the ball a lot while McKnight only gets mop-up duty. There is no doubt that Tomlinson will be considered the more likely of the two to get any potential goal line touches but he has only scored one touchdown since Week 6.

Projections:
Mark Sanchez – 195 yards passing / 2 touchdowns / 2 INT / 10 yards rushing
LaDainian Tomlinson – 60 yards rushing / 0 TD / 15 yards receiving / 0 TD
Shonn Greene – 45 yards rushing / 0 TD / 5 yards receiving / 0 TD
Joe McKnight – 10 yards rushing / 0 TD
Brad Smith – 20 yards rushing / 0 TD
Santonio Holmes – 75 yards rushing / 1 TD
Braylon Edwards – 60 yards receiving / 1 TD
Jerricho Cotchery – 20 yards receiving
Dustin Keller – 25 yards receiving / 0 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: A big win over the Titans in Week 17 capped off another monster season for perhaps the greatest fantasy quarterback of all-time, Peyton Manning. Manning had a terrible streak in the middle of the season but has since thrown nine touchdowns to only two interceptions in the final four weeks of the regular season. The playoffs begin a new season for Manning, though—one in which he has struggled at times. Over the course of his career, Manning’s quarterback rating has dropped nearly 8 points in the playoffs from what it is during the regular season and his touchdown per-game average has dropped from 2.26 per game to just 1.55 per game.

The Jets defense is an interesting matchup for Manning and the Colts. They bring quite a bit of pressure on opposing quarterbacks and while Manning does a great job of avoiding sacks, he has made quite a few mistakes this year while under pressure. Manning torched the Jets last season in the playoffs to the tune of 377 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. With perhaps the best shutdown cornerback in the league being announced as covering Reggie Wayne, Manning may find himself having to get the ball to his other receivers—something he is not afraid to do, but without Austin Collie and Dallas Clark, things could be a bit different this season.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts running game has been a joke for the most part this season. They have averaged just 92.7 yards on the ground per game and have had only two 100-yard rushers on the season. With Joseph Addai returning from injury, though, things are looking up for the Colts and their 29th ranked run offense. Addai has been splitting carries with Dominic Rhodes since his return, but there is little doubt that Addai will be the team’s top back going into the playoffs—the only question is which of the other backs will get carries. Rhodes, Javarris James, Mike Hart, and Donald Brown all could be activated for the playoffs, but the Colts have not given any indication of which one of them will carry the ball.

Whoever gets carries besides Addai is going to have trouble against the Jets and their 2nd-ranked fantasy run defense. New York only allowed two games of over 100 yards rushing on the year and is coming off of a great performance against the Bills, where they held Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller to 40 yards on the ground. While they have been worse in the second half of the season against the run, they are still an excellent run defense—one that should be good enough to shut down the Colts’ mediocre running game.

Projections:
Peyton Manning – 240 yards passing / 3 TD / 1 INT
Joseph Addai – 40 yards rushing / 0 TD / 10 yards receiving
Dominic Rhodes – 30 yards rushing / 0 TD
Donald Brown – 10 yards rushing / 0 TD
Pierre Garcon – 90 yards receiving / 1 TD
Reggie Wayne – 50 yards receiving / 1 TD
Blair White – 50 yards receiving / 0 TD
Jacob Tamme – 70 yards receiving / 1 TD

Prediction: Jets 20, Colts 24 ^ Top

Ravens @ Chiefs - (Marcoccio)

Passing Game Thoughts: Joe Flacco has shown marked improvement during each season of his young career. That should strike some fear into the Ravens playoff opponents, as Baltimore has won 3 playoff games during Flacco’s first two years in the league and he’s now a much better QB. The team brought in a few new toys for Flacco to play with this offseason, most notably Anqaun Boldin. Boldin is a tough receiver that has superb run after the catch ability and was the main target early in the season but seemed to lose ground to incumbent veteran Derrick Mason mid season. The team has also added T.J. Houshmanzadeh and Donte Stallworth, who were non-factors for most of the year, but did make some contributions. Todd Heap has been banged up (surprise, surprise) during the last few weeks but is expected to play during wildcard weekend. Flacco wasn’t asked to do much in his first season and most of his passes were sideline routes where his receiver would either catch the ball or it would go safely out of bounds. In his third year, Flacco attacks the whole field and is adept at both throwing deep and accurate in the slot.

Brandon Flowers developed into one of the better young cornerbacks in the league this season and rookie Eric Berry proved to have a nose for the football (4 interceptions), but overall the Chiefs were below average in pass defense. They allowed 219.9 yards per game and 23 TDs on the season. They were a more aggressive defense under DC Romeo Crennel led by DE Tambla Hali and his 14.5 sacks but they do give up big plays.

Running Game Thoughts: Ray Rice was disappointing to fantasy owners that drafted him in the top 5, but he still proved to be one of the top RBs in the NFL during his third season. Rice shows tremendous balance, strength and vision when running inside and has adequate enough speed to get outside. Once he’s in open space, his “hips on a swivel” allow for big plays. The Ravens love to swing the ball to him out of the backfield and he has proven to be an excellent pass catcher. Willis McGahee, who lost his starting gig to Rice lat season, reinvented himself to become one of the top goal-line vultures in the league. The Ravens love to establish the running game and should try and pound the ball early - it will be a key for them to get good gains on first and second down. They would love to keep their third downs manageable and keep the frenzied Arrowhead crowd from being a major factor in the contest.

Despite having Derrick Johnson, one of the league’s top tackling linebackers, the Chiefs were merely an average run defense – allowing 110.3 ypg and 11 TDs on the season. They showed more discipline as the season wore on however, and will need to concentrate on maintaining their lanes in order to keep Ray Rice in check.

Projections:
Joe Flacco: 265 yds passing 2 TDs, 1 Int.
Anquan Boldin: 85 yds receiving, 1 TD
Derrick Mason: 70 yds receiving
Todd Heap: 35 yds receiving
Ray Rice: 95 yds rushing / 30 yds receiving
Willis McGahee: 30 yds rushing, 1 TD / 5 yds receiving

Passing Game Thoughts: Matt Cassell was considered a bust by many after his first season in Kansas City, but perhaps Scott Pioli really does know a thing or two. Cassel did more than just manage games as he led the Chiefs to the AFC West crown in 2010, he showed that he can be the guy we saw in New England in 2008, despite having an inferior supporting cast. Cassel threw for 27 touchdowns in 15 games, and helped resurrect WR Dwayne Bowe’s career which had been in decline since a very good rookie season. Outside of Dwayne Bowe the Chiefs, don’t have many weapons in the passing game as rookies Tony Moeaki and Dexter McCluster were next in the pecking order. Moeaki moves well and uses his big body to shield off defenders and create a big target for the accurate Cassell. McCluster showed flashes of brilliance but has had a tough time staying on the field leaving only uninspiring veterans like Terrance Copper and Chris Chambers to draw coverage away from Bowe. That’s been the problem for the Chiefs when the passing game has struggled: take Bowe away and there aren’t any real legit options for Cassel to attack your defense.

The Ravens were banged up in the secondary early in the season and struggled. They improved a little after safety Ed Reed returned from the PUP list, but finished a disappointing 21st ranked in pass defense (224.9 ypg and 22 TDs). The Ravens pass rush wasn’t what it once was (27 sacks) as they had to limit their blitzing, as their depleted defensive backfield had trouble dealing with one-on-one coverage. The Chiefs are not exactly known for their passing attack, but they may just rely on it more than you would expect in this week’s playoff contest in order to attack the Ravens’ weakness.

Running Game Thoughts: 1,400 yard rusher Thomas Jones left the Jets for the Chiefs this past offseason and paid early season dividends before showing his age down the stretch. However, Jones late season struggles didn’t hurt the Chiefs’ running game, as it opened the door for more carries for the dynamic Jamaal Charles. All Charles did this season was finish second to the great Jim Brown in yards per carry during a single NFL season. Charles averaged an amazing 6.4 yards per carry, despite running behind an improving, but still below average offensive line. Charles has uncanny quickness and a cross over step that leaves defenders helpless to stop him on their own. Jones will still likely be given some opportunities to gain positive yards in tough short yardage situations but the Chiefs must hitch their wagon to the NFL’s second leading rusher if they hope to pull off an upset this week.

Of course, Charles will be facing the Ravens who feature one of the best front sevens in football and make life very difficult for all rushing attacks (outside of Cleveland’s). The unit allowed only 93.9 ypg and 5 TDs on the ground in 2010. Ray Lewis has aged well, but it all starts with the big guy up in the front. Haloti Ngata is arguably the most athletic DT (technically he’s now a DE in the Ravens 3-4 defense) in the league. Ngata is too big and too fast for most o-linemen and his presence allows Lewis to continue making tackle after tackle at an age where he should be in serious decline.

Projections:
Matt Cassell: 225 yds passing, 2 TDs, 1 Int. / 10 yards rushing
Dwayne Bowe: 60 yds receiving, 1 TD
Terrance Copper: 45 yds receiving
Tony Moeaki: 50 yds receiving, 1 TD
Thomas Jones: 25 yds rushing / 5 yds receiving
Jamaal Charles: 80 yds rushing / 35 yds receiving

Prediction: Ravens 24, Chiefs 20 ^ Top

Packers @ Eagles - (Autry)

Passing Game Thoughts: It baffles me that Aaron Rodgers doesn’t get the appreciation I believe he deserves as one of the top-5 QBs in the league. ‘But he hasn’t won a playoff game,’ his detractors say, as they conveniently disregard the 423-yard (career best), four-TD playoff game last year in Arizona. Green Bay lost, sure, but how can leading your team to 45 points while putting up those kinds of numbers be cause for blame? Rodgers is the best QB in the conference in my humble opinion, but that’s a discussion for another day. When Green Bay played Philadelphia in week one, Rodgers had a nondescript performance, throwing for less than 200 yards while tossing two TDs and two INTs. Early September was many moons ago, though; Rodgers is now one of the hottest QBs in the league. He closed the season by scoring 17 total TDs in the last seven games while throwing only two picks.

Philadelphia’s pass defense picked it up late in the season, holding Minnesota and Dallas to a TOTAL of 289 passing yards in the season’s last two games. Granted, those performances were against mediocre QB play, but play along with me if you would. Perhaps those games may have given Eagles fans increased optimism as they head into this week’s game. But those same fans should keep in mind that only three teams have given up more TD passes than Philly. That’s not a good thing going up against Rodgers and his crew. Greg Jennings and Donald Driver are always threats, and James Jones remains the x-factor in Green Bay’s passing attack. Look for Rodgers to spread the ball around like he normally does and carve up the Eagles’ secondary.

Running Game Thoughts: Green Bay’s running game is much maligned, and rightfully so. But honestly, it hasn’t been that bad from a statistical standpoint. The Pack have actually averaged almost 110 yards on the ground over the last three games. Brandon Jackson, average though he may be, is the primary runner, with John Kuhn getting short yardage, goal line duty and some third-down action. But look, let’s not kid ourselves. Green Bay is a pass-first offense, proven most assuredly by its 120 more pass attempts than run attempts in 2010. The Packers will run just enough to keep the Eagles at bay; but no doubt about it, if Green Bay wins, it will be because Rodgers took them there—not the running game.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers – 270 yards / 2 TDs passing / 1 TD rushing
Brandon Jackson – 40 yards
John Kuhn – 25 yards
Greg Jennings – 90 yards / 1 TD
Donald Driver – 75 yards / 1 TD
James Jones – 55 yards
Andrew Quarless – 40 yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Michael Vick has been his versatile, dangerous self for most of the season, but after starting red hot and avoiding turning the ball over during the first half of the season, he’s now thrown at least one INT in each of the last five games. He’s made up for those miscues by running for a TD in each of the last four, but Vick is going to have to understand that mistakes are magnified tremendously in the postseason. His skill set remains one of the most dynamic the league has ever witnessed, so whatever mistakes he may make, his sheer athletic ability can often mask the stench of his errors. The possibility of blunders could be increased, as Green Bay’s 5th-ranked pass defense has a way of making life miserable for opposing QBs—just ask Eli Manning.

DeSean Jackson seems to be a feast or famine kind of player—if he doesn’t get loose for long passes, his role in the offense is secondary. Take away Jackson’s down-the-field options and it looks like he can be contained. Meanwhile, Jeremy Maclin runs the short, possession-type patterns that make him in many ways the more reliable receiving option. It will be interesting to see how Green Bay utilizes CB Charles Woodson. He’s adept at blitzing off the corner, and his athleticism allows him to contain Vick maybe as well as any Packer defender. But what would taking Woodson out of coverage responsibility do to the integrity of Green Bay’s defensive scheme as it relates to containing Jackson and Maclin? I guess that’s why they play the game.

Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy entered this season as a wildcard fantasy player. Philly’s coaching staff was in love with FB Leonard Weaver, but an injury in the season’s first game against Green Bay opened the door for McCoy to perform and surprise many—including yours truly. He leads the team in both rushing and receiving and is an absolute dynamo in the open field. You can expect to see less of McCoy in the running game than in the passing game. Head coach Andy Reid never met a pass play he didn’t like and while for some RBs that may be a problem, for McCoy it’s an asset. His versatile skills complement Vick’s very well, so his battle against Green Bay’s Clay Matthews should be fun to watch. McCoy can always supplement potential poor performances with his diversified talents, so don’t count out McCoy having a productive game regardless of the flow.

Projections:
Michael Vick – 240 yards passing / 1 TD passing / 45 yards rushing / 1 rushing TD
LeSean McCoy – 65 yards rushing / 45 yards rec
Jeremy Maclin – 80 yards / 1 TD
DeSean Jackson – 45 yards
Jason Avant – 30 yards
Brent Celek – 20 yards

Prediction: Green Bay 24, Philadelphia 17 ^ Top