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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Mike Krueger — August 10, 2011 @ 2:08 am
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/9
Running Backs
- Mikel Leshoure dropped from the list due to Achilles injury. Tough break for the rookie.
- Jahvid Best (+5) moves up but not as much as you might think. Can’t envision the Lions giving him more than 220 carries this year.
- Ricky Williams (+27) improves his fantasy stock after landing in Baltimore to back up Ray Rice.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:29 am
QB Josh Freeman
 The fantasy world seems to be banking on Matt Ryan as the next stud quarterback, but the smart money is riding on the Buccaneers’ Josh Freeman. While Ryan’s Falcons may have better overall talent at the skill positions, Freeman’s Bucs use a more pass-based offense and Freeman is a far more capable rusher. He made huge strides in his second season in the league, throwing for nearly 3,500 yards with 25 touchdowns and just six interceptions. In addition, he finished second to Michael Vick in rushing yards for quarterbacks with 364, but he inexplicably failed to find the end zone. Expect even more improvement in 2011, and if you’re still not convinced of Freeman’s fantasy potential, consider that he has stayed healthy (25 consecutive starts) and is a remarkably consistent fantasy producer for such a young player (only one sub-14-point game in 2010). Don’t be late to the Freeman parade. This guy’s going to be value on draft day—bank on it.
RB LeGarrette Blount
Undrafted and then cast aside by the Tennessee Titans, Blount signed with Tampa Bay and became a revelation at running back partway through the 2010 season. He started out as Cadillac Williams’ backup, ascended to the starter’s role, and made teams regret passing on him as he gained 977 rushing yards and scored five touchdowns over the final 11 games of the season. Blount’s checkered past scared teams away from drafting him, but he displayed excellent athleticism for a 250-pound runner, as he had a number of highlight reel runs. He is getting a lot of love in the fantasy world, but there are some red flags. His maturity level is one of them, as is the fact that many running backs with fresh legs look good over the latter part of a season. In addition, he contributes almost nothing to the passing game, leaving the field in those situations. Despite earning significant playing time, he caught just five passes last season. There’s a lot to like about Blount, but he’s not a player you want to reach for—and certainly not a good option in PPR leagues.
RB Kregg Lumpkin
With the departure of Cadillac Williams to the Rams, there is a significant void at the backup running back spot behind LeGarrette Blount. Even though Lumpkin has done little during his time in Green Bay and Tampa Bay, the Bucs like his hard-running, one-cut style. When your lead back has the checkered history that Blount has and your team is on the verge of making a playoff run, a proven backup is generally in order, and unfortunately Lumpkin doesn’t fit the bill. He might be Blount’s backup at the moment, but that moment doesn’t seem to be a lasting one.
RB Earnest Graham
While Graham is campaigning to be LeGarrette Blount’s backup and has been productive in the past when given a steady dose of playing time, the Bucs seem to have cast him in the lead fullback/emergency backup role. Look no further than the miniscule 64 touches they have given him over the past two years combined. If your league drafts early and you’re looking to grab Blount’s handcuff, don’t bank on Graham’s nabbing that role.
WR Mike Williams
Williams overcame the baggage he accumulated in college to have an outstanding rookie season in Tampa. He dropped to the fourth round of last year’s rookie draft as teams cast a wary eye on his problems at Syracuse. The Bucs took a chance on him, however, and he was easily the most productive rookie receiver in 2010. Williams quickly ascended to the top wide receiver role in Tampa, catching 65 passes for 964 yards and 11 touchdowns. That production was good enough to finish as the 11th-ranked fantasy wide receiver. Williams may have his skeptics, but he figures to remain highly productive if he can stay out of trouble. He has solid size at 6’1” and 220 pounds to go along with good hands, excellent speed, and the ability to adjust in the air for the ball. Throw in the fact that he’s the top wideout on an up-and-coming Bucs offense, and Williams makes for an outstanding prospect in dynasty leagues. While another 11-touchdown season may not be in the cards, he figures to top 1,000 yards and ranks as a mid-tier WR2 with upside in 2011.
WR Arrelious Benn
Benn enters this year coming off a disappointing rookie season that was cut short when he suffered a torn ACL in Week 16. The Bucs’ second-round pick last season struggled for most of the year as he watched fellow rookie Mike Williams emerge as the team’s No. 1 wide receiver. Reports indicate that Benn’s rehabilitation is ahead of schedule and that he is the favorite to start opposite Williams. While that bodes for well for his fantasy prospects, the bottom line is that most players struggle in the year following an ACL injury, particularly when the injury occurs late in the season. In addition, he is now clearly a distant fourth in the team’s pecking order in terms of getting touches, behind Williams, tight end Kellen Winslow, and running back LeGarrette Blount. Benn makes for a decent dynasty prospect but is waiver wire material in redraft leagues.
WR Sammie Stroughter
Stroughter played reasonably well as a rookie in 2009, only to watch the Bucs use their 2010 second- and fourth-round picks on wide receivers Arrelious Benn and Mike Williams. That should have told us all we need to know about Stroughter. If your team doesn’t think you’re good enough, your fantasy prospects can’t be all that great. He won a spot in the starting lineup last season as Benn struggled out of the gate, but he just as quickly lost it. Stroughter is destined to be a slot receiver, he’s been injured at the conclusion of each of his years in the league, he’s not likely to get many looks, and there’s no reason to have him on your fantasy roster.
TE Kellen Winslow
On the plus side, Winslow has stayed healthy for the past two years, playing 16 games each season. While he is a productive tight end when healthy, the odds of him fulfilling his immense potential after seven seasons in the league are remote. He enters 2011 coming off a solid yet unspectacular 2010 campaign where he caught 66 passes for 730 yards and five touchdowns. Winslow’s fantasy prospects are brighter since he’ll be playing in an improved Tampa Bay offense, but he remains a bit of an enigma in the red zone despite his size and athleticism, as he’s failed to top five touchdown passes in any season. With a plethora of mid-tier tight ends available, there is definitely no reason to reach for Winslow.
By: Mike Krueger — August 8, 2011 @ 12:25 pm
Player Projections, Rankings & Cheatsheets
Change Log – 8/8
Quarterbacks
Running Backs
Wide Receivers
- Dwayne Bowe (-2) slides a couple spots. More weapons this season in the Chiefs passing game.
- Johnny Knox (-3) is losing reps to Roy Williams (+20) in practice. Why doesn’t Martz play them at different positions?
- Derrick Mason (-30) signing is basically Plaxico (-2) insurance. Mason goes from a starter to option #3.
- Malcom Floyd (+12) resigns in SD and returns to a starting role.
- Michael Crabtree (-3) can’t stay healthy and Braylon Edwards’ (+3) arrival is an ominous sign.
Tight Ends
- Flip-flopped Rob Gronkowski (+6) and Aaron Hernandez (-6). It’s too bad these two have to share targets.
- Jared Cook (+10) becomes Hasselbecks pass-receiving option now that Bo Scaife (-4) has moved on.
- Travis Beckum (+21) takes a big leap as he becomes the starting tight end now that Kevin Boss (-5) has moved on to Oakland.
- Ed Dickson (-3) may be the starter but it appears the Ravens like Dennis Pitta (+7) enough that he will share in the pass-receiving responsibilities.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 2:51 am
QB Cam Newton
 As former San Francisco head coach and renowned offensive guru Bill Walsh liked to opine, quarterbacks that can run are nice, but ones that can pass are better. With Newton coming from a simplistic offense at Auburn, the Panthers are going to have to turn him from a thrower into a passer who is capable of reading defenses. That’s going to take some time. While Newton has special athletic gifts, he is far from a polished product and is not expected to contribute much in his rookie season. Newton may emerge as the starting quarterback early in 2011, but that will be due more to the Panthers’ lack of options at the position than to Newton’s readiness to lead a pro-style offense. If Newton is under center, look for the Panthers to protect him with a run-based offense featuring short passes and rollouts that give him the option of running. That recipe won’t result in much fantasy production. Frankly speaking, his dynasty prospects beyond this season can’t be considered great either, given the poor accuracy he displayed in college.
QB Derek Anderson
With Jimmy Clausen struggling early in training camp and the Panthers not expecting Cam Newton to be ready by opening day, they signed Anderson. He was a bust last year in Arizona despite being surrounded by some proven receiving talent. So how is he going to produce in Carolina with far less receiving talent? He’s not. And he’s not going to keep the starting gig for too long, assuming he beats out Clausen to start with.
QB Jimmy Clausen
Clausen was so bad last year that the Panthers gave up on him just one season after using a 2010 second-round pick to acquire him. He was asked to throw short and avoid turnovers, yet he completed just 52.5 percent of his passes with only three touchdowns and nine interceptions. In his ten starts, he averaged 145 passing yards a game even though the Panthers were regularly playing from behind. Despite all that, Clausen was expected to open the 2011 season as Carolina’s starter and keep the job warm until Cam Newton, the first overall selection in the 2011 draft, was ready. But Clausen was so bad that the Panthers signed Derek Anderson, who apparently will start on opening day. And we all know that Anderson’s ridiculously poor 2010 campaign basically torpedoed the Cardinals’ playoff chances. Don’t draft Clausen, and if you own him in dynasty formats, it’s time to move on.
RB DeAngelo Williams
As the most sought after free agent running back on the market, there was strong speculation that Williams would leave Carolina for greener pastures. However, he reportedly spurned offers from the Dolphins and Broncos, choosing instead to return to the Panthers despite the franchise being in a rebuilding mode. He is coming off a disappointing, injury-plagued season during which he rushed for 361 yards, had 61 receiving yards, and scored just a single touchdown, all career lows. In 2011, Williams will once again split time with Jonathan Stewart, and while committee approaches often result in two running backs being productive (such as what occurred in 2008 in Carolina), it’s rare for that to happen in one of the league’s worst offenses. And that is likely in store for the Panthers this coming season. Both Carolina running backs have had a difficult time remaining healthy, and Williams has now missed 13 games over the past two seasons. It’s also worth noting that Mike Goodson played well in Williams’ absence and would likely get significant playing time if Williams or Stewart went down. Don’t expect Williams to return to his 2008 glory. He’s an RB3 with upside if Stewart goes down, but Goodson’s presence limits that upside.
RB Jonathan Stewart
Despite having a lackluster 2010 season in Carolina, Stewart was expected to ascend to the lead back role with DeAngelo Williams entering free agency. The only problem is that Williams re-upped with the Panthers, relegating Stewart to a timeshare role once again. In hindsight, Stewart has only himself to blame since he struggled mightily for the first half of 2010, failing to top 43 yards in any of the first eight games and gaining just 208 yards over that stretch on a paltry 3.0 yards per carry. Hardly lead back production, which the Panthers surely took note of. Worse yet, with Williams and Stewart out of the lineup with injuries in Weeks 10 and 11, third-string running back Mike Goodson stepped into the fray, gaining 264 total yards in those games. Stewart returned to the lineup in Week 12 and finished the season strong, gaining 580 total yards and a touchdown over the next six games. For 2011, Stewart enters the season as no better than an RB4, and his only prospect for a breakout season would come if he were traded prior to opening day.
RB Mike Goodson
With both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart injured in Weeks 10 and 11 last year, Goodson shined in his two starts, the first significant playing time of his career. He gained a surprising 264 total yards in games against the Bucs and Ravens and had a nice five-game stretch during which he averaged a healthy 13.5 fantasy points per game. Unfortunately—and unjustifiably—the Panthers handed the starting job back to the disappointing Stewart, who went on to finish the season strongly. With both Williams and Stewart back for 2011, Goodson will once again be relegated to just a handful of touches per game, if that. His fantasy prospects hinge on either a trade to a new team or the Panthers’ deciding to move Stewart. Goodson is a deep sleeper for dynasty leagues but not recommended in redraft formats.
WR Steve Smith
Offseason speculation had Smith being traded to a contender as the Panthers begin the rebuilding process with rookie quarterback Cam Newton. That didn’t happen—whether because of the Panthers’ decision to keep Smith to help ease Newton’s transition to the NFL or because the market for Smith’s services never heating up, courtesy of his poor outing in 2010. Accumulating only 554 yards and two touchdowns on 46 receptions, the 32-year old suffered through his worst season (other than his injury-shortened 2004 campaign) since his rookie season in 2001. The issue now is whether he can bounce back in 2011—but what has changed in Carolina to help make that happen? He’s a year older, the quarterback situation figures to improve only marginally, and the team’s duo of running backs may actually remain healthy for 16 games. Smith ranks as a backup fantasy wideout for this season, but it’s almost assured that somebody will draft him as a starter. Make sure it’s now you.
WR David Gettis
The Panthers used a sixth-round pick in the 2010 draft to acquire Gettis and he put up solid production as a rookie, gaining 508 yards and three touchdowns on 37 receptions. A closer look reveals, however, that most of his production came in two games against the 49ers and Ravens, where he caught 10 passes for 217 yards and all three of his touchdowns. This year he will battle fellow second-year receiver Bandon LaFell for the opportunity to start opposite Steve Smith. Unfortunately, the Panthers will likely suffer from poor quarterback play once again, and the team has added talented pass-catching tight end Greg Olsen, who figures to get plenty of targets. Gettis is worth taking a flyer on in larger leagues, but that’s about it.
WR Brandon LaFell
LaFell was expected to start as a rookie last season, but the third-round pick struggled mightily in that role, losing the job to fellow rookie David Gettis. Of his 23 targets over the first four games, LaFell caught just five for 72 yards. That was all the Panthers needed to see, and LaFell quickly found his way to the bench. He finished the season with only 38 receptions for 468 yards and a touchdown. LaFell has good size and better-than-average speed but doesn’t figure to produce much even if he beats out Gettis for a starting spot. You can do better.
WR Legedu Naanee
Naanee showed big-play potential out of the gates last season, accumulating 110 receiving yards in his first game, which included a 59-yard touchdown reception. Plagued by injury and inconsistency, however, he mustered just 261 yards the rest of the way. With 2010 rookies David Gettis and Brandon LaFell showing signs of promise, Naanee will likely have to settle for fourth on the Panthers’ wide receiver depth chart.
TE Greg Olsen
Entering 2010, the line of thinking on Olsen was that he would suffer with the addition of Mike Martz as the Bears’ offensive coordinator. While Martz and the Bears told anyone who would listen that Olsen would be an integral part of the offense, history suggested otherwise, with no tight end ever topping 380 receiving yards in a Martz offense. Right on cue, Olsen’s targets plummeted from a career-high 108 in 2009 to just 69 last season. His production dropped from 60 receptions for 612 yards and eight touchdowns to 41 receptions for 404 yards and five touchdowns. Olsen gets a new lease on life with his trade to Carolina, but he goes from a nominal role in Chicago to a team that had the worst passing attack in the league in 2010. And they will challenge for that dubious distinction once again this season. He is waiver wire material for 2011.
TE Jeremy Shockey
It’s all about opportunity in fantasy football, and Shockey’s move from the powerful Saints offense to a weak Panthers passing game appeared to actually improve his fantasy stock, since he was going to lose his starting job to talented youngster Jimmy Graham anyway. Oops. Then the Panthers acquired Greg Olsen, and Shockey now figures to be a glorified blocker in Carolina in 2011.
By: Dave Stringer — August 7, 2011 @ 11:54 am
QB Matt Ryan
Is this the year Ryan realizes his potential and becomes the top-notch starting quarterback many anticipated when he was taken with the third overall pick in 2008? Well, top-notch fantasy starting quarterback, I should say. As a starting NFL quarterback, Ryan has been nothing short of magnificent, turning the moribund Falcons into a perennial winner during his three-year stay in Atlanta, which included last year’s conference-leading 13-3 record. As a fantasy starter, he’s left something to be desired, however, with the Falcons’ conservative approach holding him back. At the 2011 draft, the team traded multiple picks to move up to the sixth spot so they could grab wide receiver Julio Jones. Jones should provide the Falcons with a nice compliment to Roddy White after the underperforming Michael Jenkins was shipped out. That bodes well for Ryan, as does the return of tight end Tony Gonzalez and the situation at running back—where the team has lost depth with the departure of Jerious Norwood. The question is whether Ryan and the Falcons will change their stripes. Head coach Mike Smith prefers a conservative offensive game plan, and offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey doesn’t abandon the run quickly. In addition, Ryan hasn’t taken many risks downfield. Ryan ranks as a top-quality QB2 with upside if the chains come off, but that isn’t as likely as some believe.
RB Michael Turner
The fantasy shine has come off Turner a little bit since his outstanding first season as a Falcon in 2008, when he rushed for 1,699 yards and scored 17 touchdowns. That was quarterback Matt Ryan’s rookie year, and the team chose to lean heavily on Turner and the running game. Over the past two seasons, Turner has been good, averaging 83 rushing yards and 0.81 touchdowns per game. Last season, he finished as the ninth-ranked fantasy running back with 1,371 rushing yards and had his third consecutive season with double-digit touchdowns (12). The concerns with Turner are the heavy workload he has endured as a Falcon (averaging nearly 21 carries per game) and the team’s addition of wide receiver Julio Jones. While Jones is the shiny new toy, Turner is the proven producer, and the Falcons love to run. With Jason Snelling, Gartrell Johnson, and scatback Jacquizz Rodgers (the team’s fifth-round pick) behind Turner, look for him to once again top the 20-carry-per-game mark. Unfortunately, the heyday of 2008 isn’t likely to return, and Turner’s poor receiving skills limit him somewhat. Consider him a solid, low-end RB1 in 2011, and move him down a couple of notches in PPR leagues.
RB Jason Snelling
After testing the free agent waters and getting a lukewarm response from St. Louis, Kansas City, and the New York Giants, Snelling has returned home, signing a one-year contract to be Michael Turner’s backup. Snelling is a decent inside runner and possess better receiving skills than Turner but he is destined to be handcuff material unless injury provides him an opportunity.
RB Jacquizz Rodgers
I’m going to be honest, I don’t like scatbacks. Never have, never will. For fantasy purposes, that is. But what’s not to like about watching a Darren Sproles scoot by frustrated, burly defenders on his way to the house? Unfortunately, these guys are never trusted by their coaches to handle a big role in a team’s offense because of injury concerns. Rodgers is a sexy pick; he had some great production at Oregon State and he will likely make some highlight reels in the NFL. But he won’t make enough of them. He replaces Jerious Norwood as the team’s change-of-pace, third-down back, and Norwood’s production when he was healthy is Rodgers’ upside. Norwood’s best season saw him post 8.0 fantasy points per game. At best, Rodgers may emerge as a decent flex option in larger leagues.
WR Roddy White
You know what’s tough? Trying to find something interesting to write about the best fantasy producers, guys like Roddy White. I don’t need to convince you that White is a trustworthy pick and a great addition to your roster. You know that. You know that some rookie hotshot isn’t going to have a major impact on his targets. You know that tight end Tony Gonzalez really slowed down as the 2010 season wore on. You know that White led the league in targets in 2010 after finishing second in 2009. You know that he was the third-ranked fantasy wide receiver last season and that the two guys ahead of him (Brandon Lloyd and Dwayne Bowe) aren’t likely to repeat their performances. And you know that Michael Turner doesn’t have a proven backup on the roster, he can’t catch, and he has to come off the field at some point. What’s left to know? Barring injury—and White has never missed a game in his six-year career—he’s a lock to finish in the top five at wide receiver, and it will be no surprise if he finishes number one.
WR Julio Jones
With a hole opposite Roddy White, the Falcons gave up a bundle of 2011 and 2012 draft picks to move up to the sixth spot to select Jones. That tells you that they think he is good and that they need him. It might be assumed that, having given up so many picks, the Falcons are planning a big role for Jones this season, and that he shapes up as a solid fantasy wide receiver. Not so fast. The Falcons love to run, they have arguably the league’s best wide receiver in Roddy White, and tight end Tony Gonzalez remains a great option on short routes and as an outlet valve. In addition, Atlanta is coming off a 14-2 season and aren’t very likely to be playing from behind much in 2011. And we haven’t even gotten to the “rookie wide receivers rarely produce” angle. You need opportunity to rack up fantasy points, and Jones isn’t likely to get much of one. While he looks like Tarzan and may play like Tarzan one day, it won’t be in 2011. Consider him a great addition to your dynasty league roster, but he’s worth nothing more than a late-round pick in redraft leagues.
WR Harry Douglas
Douglas is expected to open the season as the team’s slot receiver, but he is coming off a disappointing 2010 season where he caught just 22 passes for 294 yards and a touchdown. The really disappointing stat, however, was that he caught a woeful 41.5 percent of his targets despite being targeted mainly on short and intermediate routes. Look for him to have a similar or reduced role in 2011, provided he holds on to his roster spot.
 The writing is on the wall. TE Tony Gonzalez
Gonzalez has been a dynamic tight end throughout his career and is clearly headed to the Hall of Fame, but the writing on the wall can’t be ignored. He is in serious decline. Sure, he caught 70 passes for 656 yards and six touchdowns last season, but if you watched the Falcons play, it was obvious he’s no longer the player he once was. His reception and yardage totals were the lowest since his second season in the league (14 years ago), his yard per reception was the lowest of his career, and his targets were his lowest since 2006. Of the 24 tight ends in the league with 40 or more receptions, Gonzalez had the third-lowest yards per reception. He’s a backup, folks, and probably a low-end one at that.
By: Dave Stringer — August 6, 2011 @ 12:45 pm
Set adrift by the New York Jets, Braylon Edwards has finally found a new team. With the free agent market for his services not matching his expectations, Edwards will reportedly sign a one-year deal with the 49ers.
 Is Edwards a good fit for Jim Harbaugh's west coast offense? In San Francisco, Edwards will immediately move into the starting line-up with Michael Crabtree out with a foot injury. If Crabtree is out for an extended period of time, Edwards will start opposite Josh Morgan, who will likely move to a reserve role when Crabtree returns.
Given their salary cap situation, the expectation entering free agency was that the Jets would have a difficult time re-signing Edwards and that proved to be the case.
With Edwards after a lucrative long-term extension, the Jets moved quickly to sign Plaxico Burress, agreeing to a $3-million, one-year deal with the former Giant. Reports indicate Edwards will receive just $3.5-million from San Francisco.
Fantasy Impact
Edwards decision to sign a short term contract with the 49ers in hopes of having a solid season and hitting the market as a free agent in 2012 is a curious one. While his size and speed would seem to indicate that is a good fit in the West Coast offense new 49ers head coach Jim Harbaugh will run, Edwards has not proven adept at running short patterns, in part because of his questionable hands.
In New York, he was used almost exclusively on intermediate and deep routes. After a pair of disappointing seasons, he played well in 2010, making several big plays on his way to a 53-reception, 904-yard, seven-touchdown performance.
The issue for Edwards is that 49ers starting quarterback Alex Smith has never proven capable of connecting with his wide receivers on deep patterns. His preferred option on those plays is tight end Vernon Davis and that is not expected to change in 2011.
Edwards’ upside in 2011 is similar to what he produced in 2010 and that would make him a WR3. However, the more likely scenario is a reduction in big plays and touchdowns. Grab him as a low end WR3 if you have to but feel more comfortable with him coming off your bench as a bye week fill in and injury replacement.
By: Dave Stringer — @ 1:04 am
QB Matt Hasselbeck
 Unable to come to terms with the Seahawks on a new contract, Hasselbeck found a willing suitor in Tennessee. With the Titans, Hasselbeck will keep the starting quarterback job warm until rookie first-round pick Jake Locker is ready to take over. Hasselbeck is coming off a trying season in Seattle, where he put up the worst production of his career (when healthy for the majority of the season), throwing for 2,998 yards with 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions. In 2011, look for him to retain the starter’s job as long as he is healthy and productive and the Titans remain in playoff contention. With his 34 touchdown passes and 44 interceptions over the last three years, and his having missed time due to injury in each of those seasons, and with the Titans not expected to challenge for a playoff spot, his time as Tennessee’s starting quarterback figures to be a short one. Furthermore, the team’s crop of receivers and tight ends hardly inspires confidence. If he can somehow overcome all of that, he may be suitable as your QB2. Otherwise, hands off.
QB Jake Locker
The future looked bright for Locker when the Titans used the eighth pick in the draft to acquire him; it looked even brighter when Kerry Collins announced his retirement. But things got decidedly darker when the team signed former Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck, who will open the season as the starter. The book on Locker coming out of Washington was that he possessed all the necessary measurables and intangibles to be an NFL quarterback but he had an issue was his accuracy. So it was no surprise when Hasselbeck was signed. Given Hasselbeck’s injury history, however, look for Locker to end up under center at some point this season and to start by season’s end if the Titans are out of the playoff picture.
 Even with contract concerns, Johnson is a top-three fantasy RB. RB Chris Johnson
After his historic 2009 season in which he set the NFL record for most yards from scrimmage (2,509) and became just the sixth running back to rush for over 2,000 yards, there was strong sentiment that Johnson would see his production decline because of his heavy workload from the previous year. Sure enough, Johnson wasn’t as dynamic, and his production also suffered due to Tennessee’s poor quarterback play. His numbers dropped to 1,364 rushing yards and 245 receiving yards with 12 total touchdowns, bumping him down to fifth place in the fantasy running back rankings. Entering 2011, there are two concerns with taking Johnson at the top of fantasy drafts: his contract situation and the team’s passing game. CJ2K is holding out for a new contract, but that situation figures to get resolved since his salaries for the next two years are incommensurate with his production. The passing attack will be lead by former Seahawk Matt Hasselbeck, but there are major question marks at wide receiver and tight end. It’s almost a foregone conclusion that Johnson will be facing eight- and nine-man fronts on rushing downs. That means another otherworldly season is unlikely, but he is definitely a top-three fantasy running back, assuming he shows up for Week 1.
RB Javon Ringer
Ah, life is lonely as the top backup for the most dynamic running back in the league, and that is Ringer’s lot in life. The 2009 fifth-round pick played behind Chris Johnson and Lendale White in his rookie season before being elevated to Johnson’s main backup last year. Ringer carried the rock just 51 times but was solid in his limited touches, scoring two touchdowns and gaining 239 yards for a 4.7 yards-per-carry average. That makes him a must-have handcuff for owners of CJ2K. The Titans did use a fourth-round pick on Jamie Harper, however, so Ringer has competition for the spot. Keep that in mind on draft day.
WR Kenny Britt
After a solid 2009 rookie season with over 700 receiving yards, Britt was on the verge of establishing himself as one of the top receivers in the league when a hamstring injured sidelined him last year. He ended the season with 42 receptions for 775 yards and nine touchdowns despite playing in just 12 games. Even more impressive was that he put up most of his production in just ten games (he failed to get a target in Week 1 and had only one target in the game in which he was injured). In those ten games, he averaged 13.1 fantasy points per game, which would have ranked him third in the league in that category behind only Brandon Lloyd and Hakeem Nicks. The talent is clearly there. Unfortunately, what’s not there is common sense. Since entering the league, Britt has missed OTAs because he was so out of shape, been ticketed for driving without a license, been arrested for outstanding traffic tickets, been accused of not paying a bail bond he obtained for a friend, been investigated for being in a bar fight, pleaded guilty to careless driving, and was charged for resisting arrest after plainclothes police officers suspected he was in possession of marijuana because they smelled it on him and saw him holding what appeared to be a marijuana cigar. The last incident occurred a day after he appeared in court on traffic charges. This all begs the questions: how did he get into Rutgers, and how did he manage to keep up his grades there? Or, why do I want a guy with this much risk (in addition to Tennessee’s risk at quarterback) on my fantasy team? I’m here to help answer those questions. I can’t speak for Rutgers, but as for the rest: You don’t want the risk. At this point, a suspension seems likely. Let others go there.
WR Nate Washington
The Titans acquired Washington as a free agent two years ago with the expectation that he would blossom in Tennessee with additional playing time. Suffice it to say, that hasn’t happened. And after five years in the league, it’s not about to. Washington had 40 receptions for 631 yards and three touchdowns in his last year with Pittsburgh and has averaged 44.5 receptions for 628 yards and six touchdowns with Tennessee. This guy is the quintessential definition of a one-trick pony. Run straight, Nate, clear out for CJ2K, and maybe we’ll chuck it to you deep. Yawn. Is that not enough evidence to avoid him in your draft? How’s this? Of his 104 fantasy points from last year, 44 came in three games. In the other 13 games, he averaged 4.6 points per game. Don’t be surprised if the rebuilding Titans go with one of their youngsters ahead of Washington in the starting lineup.
WR Damian Williams
Williams didn’t do much to excite fantasy owners in his 2010 rookie season, posting modest totals of 16 receptions for 219 yards. The former third-round pick rarely saw the field other than when injuries struck, but he has a decent chance of earning significant playing time this season. Randy Moss is gone, Kenny Britt could be suspended, Justin Gage hasn’t done enough to justify his 2011 salary of $3.5 million, and Nate Washington hasn’t done enough to justify his starting position. Williams figures to be the team’s top backup, at worst, and perhaps their go-to if Britt is suspended. He rates as a deep sleeper but one worth monitoring in the preseason.
WR Justin Gage
Coming off of two disappointing seasons, there’s a decent chance Gage will be on the unemployment line by opening day. In fact, barring a renegotiation or a suspension or an injury to Kenny Britt or Nate Washington, it’s almost a guarantee. The Titans will look to get 2010 third-round pick Damian Williams more involved this season, and that will likely spell the end of Gage’s run with the Titans.
TE Jared Cook
The Titans are not expected to re-sign Bo Scaife in 2011, so Cook will get his first chance for significant playing time. He possesses good size at 6’5” and 246 pounds and is one of the faster tight ends in the league. That’s why he was touted as an athletic tight end coming out of South Carolina in the 2009 draft, and that’s why the Titans used a third-round pick to acquire him. Unfortunately, he rarely saw the field until the tail end of the 2010 season. The results were promising, however, with Cook catching 15 of his 21 targets (a tidy completion percentage of 71.4) for 196 yards and one touchdown, averaging 8.5 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck likes throwing to tight ends, and you can expect the same from rookie Jake Locker if he is inserted into the starting lineup. Cook is definitely worth a look in dynasty leagues and as your TE2 in redraft leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — August 5, 2011 @ 1:00 am
QB David Garrard
 Garrard has been a model of consistency as a fantasy quarterback, posting point-per-game averages of 18.5, 17.8, 18.1, and 20.5 over the past four years. In 2010, he posted career highs in completion percentage (64.5 percent), touchdown passes (23), and rushing touchdowns (5). The problem is that he’s a solid yet unspectacular quarterback who has a nasty habit of throwing interceptions at key moments. And it doesn’t help that the team’s depth chart at wide receiver is looking a little thin with the departure of Mike Sims-Walker, who, although not very good in 2010, was still the team’s top threat at the position. The use of a first-round pick on Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert made it clear that Jacksonville does not envision Garrard as someone who can take them into a deep playoff run. So the issue is whether you think the Jaguars will remain in playoff contention, which would keep Gabbert planted on the bench. Don’t bank on it. That means you can’t bank on Garrard as your fantasy backup.
QB Blaine Gabbert
Recognizing David Garrard’s limitations, the Jaguars used their first-round pick to select Gabbert. The book on Gabbert coming out of college was that he is an athletic quarterback with a solid arm who struggled when under pressure and when forced to throw out of the pocket. Look for him to sit for most of the 2011 season, with a small number of starts possible near season’s end if the Jaguars are out of playoff contention. He’s not recommended for redraft leagues, but he’s a good option in dynasty formats.
RB Maurice Jones-Drew
Despite dealing with a lingering knee injury last season and watching Rashad Jennings develop into a legitimate backup, MJD remained productive, gaining 1,323 yards on the ground to go along with 317 receiving yards and seven total touchdowns. It’s hard to complain about 14.7 fantasy points per game, but that represented a drop-off from his first full season as a starter in 2009 when he averaged 17.0 points per game. The drop-off was the result of both his missing two games with injuries and Jennings’ occasional short-yardage work. The issue for MJD in 2011 will be his recovery from offseason surgery to repair a torn meniscus. He apparently was cleared to begin running in mid-June, but he has stated that he has been running since early April. The mixed signals are a bit of a red flag. If healthy, he’s a lock to finish in the top ten at running back, so monitor his injury status and adjust accordingly.
RB Rashad Jennings
After barely seeing the field as a rookie, Jennings earned a decent amount of playing time in 2010 while subbing in for Maurice Jones-Drew. His touches doubled from 55 to 110 and he made the most of them, averaging 7.1 fantasy points per game on 459 rushing yards, four rushing touchdowns, and 223 receiving yards. Better yet, with MJD coming off a knee injury, the Jaguars are concerned about his workload and have indicated that they plan to increase Jennings’ touches even more in 2011. If that happens, Jennings could be a decent flex option in 12- and 14-team leagues that use that position. One thing is for certain: Jennings is a must-have handcuff for MJD owners given his production and MJD’s knee issues. It was also nice to see that Jennings can be productive in the starting lineup in his two starts in Weeks 16 and 17, where he posted 140 rushing yards, 63 receiving yards, and a touchdown.
WR Mike Thomas
With Jacksonville’s decision not to retain Mike Sims-Walker, Thomas becomes their de facto, No. 1 wide receiver. That isn’t to say that he’s a typical No. 1 receiver, but he is Jacksonville’s top option. Thomas has been productive during his first two years in the league, improving on his rookie stats of 48 receptions for 453 yards and a touchdown to 66 catches for 820 yards and four scores in 2010. Entering his third year, his career trajectory seems to indicate that a breakout season is coming. And it is possible, but it’s not likely. Thomas is on the smallish side at 5’8” and 198 pounds, and while he is shifty, he doesn’t have tremendous deep speed, he isn’t a great option in the red zone, and he has averaged a modest 11.2 yards per reception over his career. With more targets, Thomas should produce more, but he doesn’t have the talent to consistently beat double coverage, so he could be inconsistent. Consider him a WR3 and move him up a few notches in PPR leagues. Be excited but not too excited.
WR Jason Hill
How sad is the Jaguars’ situation at wide receiver? It’s so sad that Hill is projected to open the season as a starter based on his 2010 year-end production in which he caught 10 passes for 233 yards over the final four games. Prior to that, Hill had a total of 42 passes for 430 yards and four touchdowns since entering the league in 2007. I guess averaging 166 receiving yards a season gets you a spot in Jacksonville’s starting lineup. I know it doesn’t get you a spot in my fantasy team’s starting lineup. In fact, it won’t even come close to getting you a roster spot.
WR Jarett Dillard
The Jaguars liked Dillard coming out of Rice and used a fifth-round pick on him in the 2009 draft. He struggled as a rookie, catching just six passes for 106 yards before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. He then missed all of 2010 with a stress fracture in one of his toes. Remarkably, he has a chance to produce in Jacksonville in 2011 because the Jaguars’ wide receiver depth chart is the worst in the league. Monitor him in training camp. There’s an outside chance he earns a starting job—and possibly a spot on your fantasy roster as a late-round draft pick (as in last-round draft pick).
WR Tiquan Underwood
He’s done virtually nothing in two years, failing to catch a pass in his rookie season and then making a mere eight receptions last year. If he were on any other team, I could stop writing now because he wouldn’t even have a shot at making the roster. But he’s a Jaguar, and their top two receivers are Mike Thomas and Jason Hill, so I need to add some more commentary on him. Is that enough? Can I stop now? Maybe he wins a starting spot over Hill. If he does, maybe he’s worth the last pick in your draft. Done.
TE Marcedes Lewis
There were a number of tight ends who put up surprisingly solid production in 2010, from the pair of rookies in New England (Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez), to Jacob Tamme replacing Dallas Clark with the Colts, to Ben Watson having a career season in his first year with Cleveland. However, the biggest surprise was Lewis, who came out of nowhere to finish as the third-ranked fantasy tight end in his fifth season in the league. Entering 2010, he had career highs of 41 receptions, 589 yards, and two touchdowns (that’s right, two!). He blew those numbers away by catching 58 passes for 710 yards and ten touchdowns. Can he do it again in 2011? With Mike Sims-Walker out of the picture and the current starters at wide receiver being Mike Thomas and Jason Hill, Lewis will get plenty of targets. However, banking on another ten touchdowns is unrealistic. While he should remain a top-ten fantasy tight end, another top-three finish isn’t in the cards.
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