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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — July 5, 2010 @ 10:17 am
 The 49ers had a respectable season under Mike Singletary’s first full year as head coach. While the record wasn’t spectacular at 8-8, few predicted that San Francisco would reach the .500 mark in 2009.
Expectations are higher this year as the 49ers enter the season as the favorite to win the NFC West. In order for that to happen, quarterback Alex Smith is going to have to continue the strong play that he had in 2009; and the pass defense, their weak link, will need to improve.
The 49ers entered last season with the goal of running the ball heavily and utilizing play action in the passing game. However, after Smith replaced an ineffective Shaun Hill, the team switched to more a spread-based offensive attack with less reliance on the running game. In 2010, offensive coordinator Jimmy Raye hopes to find the proper balance that will maximize the strengths of Smith and running back Frank Gore.
After Smith took over at quarterback, Gore became less of a featured player on offense, with 16 or fewer carries in seven of the team’s final ten games. He remains one of the league’s few remaining workhorse backs, however, excelling as a runner, receiver, and pass blocker.
Tight end Vernon Davis finally fulfilled his promise, having a Pro Bowl season in 2009 with 965 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Despite a holdout that lasted five weeks into the season, wide receiver Michael Crabtree performed well in his rookie season and figures to be a Pro Bowl performer either this season or next.
QB Alex Smith
Smith rebounded from missing all of 2008 and played well last season once he moved into the starting lineup. With Smith starting, the 49ers moved away from the heavily ground-based offense they used early in the season in favor of a spread attack that was better suited to Smith’s ability. Smith was up to the task, putting up 2,350 passing yards with 18 touchdowns over 11 games after replacing Hill—production that, on a points-per-game basis, equals that of a solid fantasy backup. The 49ers spent a pair of first round draft picks on offensive linemen Anthony Davis and Mike Iupati, and the team features one of the most talented groups of young skill position players in the league in Frank Gore, Vernon Davis, and Michael Crabtree. The 49ers offense should surprise in 2010, given the young talent on the roster. The ingredients are there for Smith to have a solid fantasy season as well. Draft him as a backup for your squad, but as one with the potential to sneak into starter status.
RB Frank Gore
Once again, Gore shapes up as a top ten running back in all fantasy formats for 2010 because of his ability to catch the ball out of the backfield. Since his breakout campaign of 2006, when he accumulated 1,695 rushing yards, 485 receiving yards and 9 touchdowns, Gore has been solid. While his talent is undeniable, he hasn’t approached his 2006 production because of either injuries (2008 and 2009), inconsistent use (2009), or a lack of talent around him (2007). While this may be the year he finally regains his 2006 fantasy form, the better bet based on his history is that Gore will tantalize his owners again, giving them solid but unspectacular production. With Alex Smith under center, the 49ers will employ the spread offense more in 2010 than last year, which figures to reduce Gore’s touches. While Gore has upside given the upgrades to the offensive line and the talent surrounding him, he doesn’t rate with the consensus top four backs for fantasy purposes. Put it this way: He’s closer to Steven Jackson than he is to the big four.
RB Glen Coffee
Coffee is a coming off what can only be described as a perplexing rookie year. In the preseason he appeared to be a third round steal for the 49ers; but when the regular season started he looked more like a deer caught in the headlights. With Frank Gore out for two games and most of another, Coffee managed just 173 yards on 61 carries, including a paltry 74 yards on 24 carries against a pathetic Rams run defense. For the year, he ran for 226 yards, averaging only 2.7 yards per carry. The 49ers spent a sixth round pick on Anthony Dixon to challenge Coffee, but offseason reports indicate that Coffee is holding down the backup spot, at least partially because of Dixon’s hamstring issues. Monitor the situation, but look for Coffee to be a must-have handcuff for Gore owners.
WR Michael Crabtree
Crabtree is coming off of a very solid rookie season and he figures to approach the 1000-yard mark in 2010. With Crabtree, the sky is the limit given his production during a rookie season in which he missed all of training camp and the first five games of the year before stepping right into the starting lineup in week six. Despite the lack of preparation, he still managed to catch 48 passes for 625 yards and a pair of touchdowns. With a full training camp to gain rapport with quarterback Alex Smith, Crabtree is a breakout candidate in 2010. However, keep expectations in check since tight end Vernon Davis gobbles up both targets and touchdowns, which limits Crabtree’s fantasy upside.
WR Josh Morgan
Morgan looks the part but seems to lack big play ability. After a great training camp during his rookie season in 2008, Morgan seemed to be a solid prospect for keeper leagues; but he has done little since to suggest that he’s ready to approach fantasy starter status. Maybe the light goes on in 2010, but with Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis hogging targets, and running back Frank Gore an excellent checkdown option, Morgan will not likely get enough looks in 2010 to be relevant for fantasy purposes. Basically, there’s no chance of him surpassing Crabtree or Davis, so why bother? He’s not worth drafting in all but the deepest leagues.
WR Ted Ginn Jr.
Ah, Ted Ginn. He runs fast—but too often right out of bounds. He gets open—but too often drops the ball. He makes people miss—but too often makes moves before he has the ball. Potential is nothing without productivity. After three years, the Dolphins gave up on Ginn; and, after three years, you should too. While there is the possibility that Ginn will develop into a solid backup wide receiver in San Francisco, he’s equally as likely to be surpassed on the depth chart by Jason Hill or Brandon Jones. Don’t drink the Kool-Aid.
TE Vernon Davis
Davis had a huge, unforeseen breakout campaign in 2009 that included 13 touchdowns and helped make him the top fantasy tight end. While Davis has always had exceptional speed, too often he was running the wrong route, missing blocking assignments, and blaming anybody but himself for his mistakes. However, he put it all together last year, showing a maturity and dedication that didn’t exist previously. While it is difficult to imagine that he can repeat his 2009 campaign, it’s just as difficult to view him as a one-year wonder. The question is, Do you believe? Here’s the answer: You should. Expect a repeat of his 2009 breakout campaign, but without the 13 touchdowns he had last year.
By: Dave Stringer — July 4, 2010 @ 10:34 am
 The Rams enter the second year of head coach Steve Spagnuolo’s tenure with the team coming off a 1-15 season and a horrendous three-year stretch with a record of 6-42. It goes without saying that the Rams have their work cut out for them in 2010.
The team has struggled on both sides of the ball in recent years, with the defense unable to stop the run in astonishing fashion. They have also struggled to make big plays or generate turnovers.
The Rams used Marc Bulger (eight starts), Kyle Boller (four), and Keith Null (four) at quarterback last year, but the team will turn to Sam Bradford this year after using the first overall pick in the draft on the Oklahoma signal caller. A.J. Feeley may open the season as the team’s starter, but Bradford will take over early in the season.
On offense, Steven Jackson is the centerpiece of the Rams. Despite regularly facing eight- and nine-man fronts and playing several games with back issues, he amassed 1,424 yards on the ground and 314 receiving yards.
The Rams lack proven playmakers at wide receiver, but the roster includes some intriguing young players. Donnie Avery enters his third season, and the Rams hope he can use his speed to make plays more consistently while avoiding the injury issues that have set him back. Laurent Robinson looked like a potential number one receiver before getting injured in the third game of last season. Brandon Gibson has potential as a possession receiver, while Danny Amendola had a solid rookie season as the team’s slot receiver. Amendola will have to fight off rookie fourth round pick Mardy Gilyard for playing time.
The situation at tight end isn’t as promising, with veteran Daniels Fells and blocking specialist Billy Bajema joined by the pair of rookies, Michael Hoomanawanui (fifth round) and Fendi Onobun (sixth round). Onobun is a raw talent with little experience but excellent athletic ability.
QB Sam Bradford
The Rams used the first overall pick in the draft to get Bradford, and the expectation is that he will start early in the season, if not on opening day. While Bradford figures to get extensive playing time in his rookie season, there are loads of question marks at wide receiver and tight end. Although there are some talented young receivers on the roster, none appear ready to assume a lead role. It’s also worth noting that the Rams will likely use a rookie and a second year player at the starting offensive tackle positions. Bradford is clearly a talented player with a strong and accurate arm. However, his 2010 fantasy prospects are extremely dim given the Rams lack of playmakers on offense. He’s a great dynasty league prospect—otherwise, there’s not much good to say about him fantasy-wise. He’s likely not worth drafting in re-draft leagues.
RB Steven Jackson
Jackson is coming off another solid yet injury-plagued season. A back injury kept him out of one game and forced him to miss several weeks worth of practices. Despite the injury, Jackson racked up some impressive numbers (1424 rushing, 314 receiving) considering the Rams anemic offense was without starting quarterback Marc Bulger for much of the year. Opposing defenses used nine men in the box against Jackson on a regular basis, even on third-and-long. His mere four touchdowns marred an otherwise solid season. One of the league’s most talented backs, Jackson figures to match his 2009 production if he remains healthy in 2010. However, he had to undergo back surgery in April, which is a worrisome sign given his injury history. Nonetheless, he should be in consideration as the fifth running back off the board in most fantasy formats.
WR Donnie Avery
Avery has been a bit of an enigma for the Rams since being the first wide receiver taken in the 2008 draft. He is a burner with exceptional speed, but his route running needs improvement and he isn’t adept at catching passes over the middle. As he enters his third year, the odds are against him having a breakout campaign in 2010. At this point, his role appears to be that of a complimentary receiver whose main tasks will include running deep patterns and end-arounds. While Avery has upside and his production should improve, he is a marginal fantasy starter in all but the deepest leagues.
WR Laurent Robinson
After acquiring Robinson from the Falcons for a swap of their fifth and sixth picks prior to last year’s draft, the Rams thought they had a steal on their hands early in the 2009 season. After two games, Robinson had emerged as the team’s top wide receiver with 141 yards and a touchdown. However, a leg fracture during Week 3 ended his 2009 season. Robinson has enough size and speed to be effective running any pattern and should win the starting job opposite Donnie Avery. With rookie Sam Bradford likely starting at quarterback in a Rams offense that lacks talent, Robinson’s potential is limited. However, he could surprise and will likely be drafted lower than Donnie Avery—and he may have just as much upside.
WR Brandon Gibson
Gibson came over in a mid-season trade with the Eagles and was thrust into a significant role immediately. At 6’0” and 210 pounds, he is a decent prospect as a possession receiver but seemed to lack deep speed as a rookie. Despite being targeted mostly on short and intermediate routes, he caught just 49% of his targets. However, a good portion of that ineffectiveness can be chalked up to the Rams poor quarterback play in 2009. Gibson has some potential, especially in PPR leagues, provided he can supplant Donnie Avery or Laurent Robinson in the starting lineup.
WR Mardy Gilyard
The Rams felt they got a steal when Gilyard was available at the first pick in the forth round of the draft. Although he doesn’t possess blazing speed, Gilyard is a shifty receiver who displayed good playmaking ability in college. Reports indicate the Rams have been very impressed with his progress during OTAs, and he figures to supplant Danny Amendola as the team’s slot receiver, perhaps by opening day. He will work as a returner as well since he may not have the requisite size to play outside in the Rams West Coast offense. However, the Rams have plenty of question marks at receiver, so Gilyard could earn a significant role as a rookie.
WR Keenan Burton
Burton has been injury-prone since entering the league two years ago. A knee injury suffered during Week 10 derailed his 2009 season; and he will be fighting for playing time, as well as his roster spot, this preseason. He is a decent prospect with enough size and speed to succeed, but he has failed to show much during his limited playing time. Though the Rams depth chart at wide receiver is unsettled, don’t expect Burton to earn a starting position, and certainly don’t waste a draft pick on him in your fantasy league.
TE Daniel Fells
The talentless Rams didn’t bother to offer him a tender, but they re-signed him when the Patriots showed some interest. Luckily for Fells, the Rams had so many needs that they didn’t draft any tight ends until the fifth and sixth rounds in 2010. If his own team doesn’t like Fells, why should you? There’s no reason to take him in your fantasy draft.
By: Dave Stringer — July 3, 2010 @ 12:17 pm
 The Chargers once again had a solid regular season in 2009, finishing 13-3, only to suffer another heart-wrenching defeat early in the playoffs. Despite having a playoff bye, they lost to the Jets 17-14 in their first playoff game, courtesy of two missed field goals by Nate Kaeding.
Head coach Norv Turner returns for his fourth season at the helm of the Chargers, and there has been significant movement on the roster during the offseason. Gone are LaDainian Tomlinson, Jamal Williams, Antonio Cromartie, and Brandon Manumaleuna.
On offense, the Chargers aired it out more regularly than in years past, finishing fifth in passing yards. With Tomlinson struggling behind an injury-plagued offensive line and Darren Sproles better suited for spot duty, Turner was forced to pass more. The result was quarterback Philip Rivers having a career year.
While the Chargers were clearly successful last year despite the heavy pass-run ratio, look for the team to have a more balanced attack in 2010 with rookie first round pick Ryan Mathews getting a healthy dose of carries in the running game.
As training camp approaches, there is concern the team will be without two stalwart performers in left tackle Marcus McNeill and wide receiver Vincent Jackson. Both players have refused to sign their restricted free agent tenders and have threatened to hold out until the tenth game of the season. If both players refuse to report, it will seriously jeopardize the Chargers’ ability to win a fifth consecutive AFC West division title.
QB Philip Rivers
Rivers has been fantasy gold over the last two seasons, topping 4,000 yards passing each year while tossing 62 touchdown passes. While Rivers is clearly not in decline at age 28, his fantasy prospects for 2010 aren’t as promising as his 2008 and 2009 success would suggest. The drafting of Ryan Mathews causes Rivers’ projected points to drop since the Chargers rushing attack figures to gain prominence this season. More worrisome is the status of Vincent Jackson. The Chargers top wide receiver has threatened to boycott the first ten games of the season unless he receives a lucrative long-term contract. Without Jackson, Rivers’ fantasy stats would take a serious hit, perhaps even dropping him to marginal starter status. Monitor Jackson’s contract situation and adjust Rivers’ fantasy ranking accordingly.
RB Ryan Mathews
Mathews lucks out in going to the high-powered Chargers offense. The rookie first round pick figures to get plenty of touches and touchdown opportunities in his first year with the team. Mathews will start on opening day, with Darren Sproles serving as the pass-catching, change-of-pace option. Look for Mathews to get 15-20 touches a game, including goal line work. At close to 220 pounds, Mathews has the stature to be a feature back, and with the Chargers expected to dominate the AFC West in 2010, he should see plenty of fourth quarter, closing-time work. It’s hard to imagine a better fantasy situation for a rookie rusher. Pencil him in as an RB1, but monitor how he is used in the preseason and how much work he gets as the season progresses. As with all rookie runners, there is a risk of him hitting the wall late in the season.
RB Darren Sproles
Sproles is coming off a career year in which he benefited from LaDanian Tomlinson’s injuries and declining level of play. He finished 2009 with 840 total yards and seven touchdowns. Unfortunately for Sproles, the Chargers traded up in the first round to take Ryan Mathews after jettisoning Tomlinson in the offseason. He will enter 2010 as a change-of-pace, pass-catching option. Sproles’ 2009 production is pretty much his upside, save for a few more yards. He is a must-have handcuff for Mathews owners and remains a useful flex play in leagues that employ the position.
WR Vincent Jackson
The good news with Jackson is that he has gotten better every year during his four-year career, finishing last season with career highs in yardage (1,167) and touchdowns (nine). The bad news is that he feels that he’s outplayed his contract status and is threatening to not report until Week 11 of the coming season. If healthy and motivated, he’s pretty much guaranteed production. Although he had a career year in 2009, it was somewhat marred by a four-game slump between weeks 10-13. Jackson will be suspended for three games due to his off-the-field troubles. Monitor his contract and suspension status in the preseason. If he’s in the lineup for 16 games, Jackson is clearly a low-end WR1 with upside for fantasy purposes.
WR Malcom Floyd
Floyd is going to be one of the most intriguing players in 2010 fantasy drafts. Not only did he show some solid ability after taking over for Chris Chambers as a starter partway through the 2009 season, but he may also benefit from Vincent Jackson’s absence. Jackson is in the midst of a contract dispute and has threatened to boycott the team until its eleventh game of the season. If that transpires, Floyd will move into the lead receiver role for the better part of 2010. He is a tall, physical receiver who has the ability to go up and get jump balls on deep passes, in addition to possessing better–than-average speed. He has solid upside playing in the Chargers potent passing game and could be a breakout candidate if Jackson stays away.
WR Legedu Naanee
Naanee started getting some opportunities in 2009 following the release of Chris Chambers. The Chargers love big receivers, and Naanee fits the mold at 6’2” and 220 pounds. Despite his size, Naanee isn’t an overly physical player and seems to be best suited to playing in the slot. However, if Vincent Jackson doesn’t resolve his contract issues, Naanee will compete for a starting spot with former Buffalo receiver Josh Reed. Give Naanee the leg up in that competition since Reed has been a slot receiver his entire career. Naanee is likely waiver wire material in most leagues if Jackson is back, but he could be a useful option if Jackson holds out.
TE Antonio Gates
After a subpar year in 2008, Gates bounced back last year to lead all tight ends in receiving yards. The Chargers offense figures to be dominant once again in 2010, and it’s worth noting that Gates finished 2009 with six touchdowns in the final six games of the season. Gates is clearly the best receiving tight end in the league, able to beat defenders with his agility and use his size to shield them from defending passes. Vincent Jackson’s potential absence only figures to increase Gates’ looks in the red zone. Look for Gates to reclaim the title of fantasy football’s premier tight end in 2010. Injuries have been a concern over the last few years and this offseason has been no different, with reports indicating that he is battling plantar fasciitis. Monitor that situation.
By: Dave Stringer — July 2, 2010 @ 11:29 am
 In Oakland, the more things change, the more they stay the same, as the Raiders have failed to record more than five wins in seven consecutive seasons. Hope springs eternal, and in 2010 the optimism comes in the form of recently acquired quarterback Jason Campbell.
While Campbell didn’t light the league on fire with the Redskins, he is a capable signal caller who suffered from the constant coaching changes in Washington. In Oakland, he represents a significant upgrade over JaMarcus Russell. Russell flamed out in extravagant fashion with the Raiders despite being forced into the starting lineup over head coach Tom Cable’s objections.
New offensive coordinator Hue Jackson takes over the play calling duties, and there is little doubt owner Al Davis’s instructions are to employ a deep passing attack. At receiver, the Raiders feature talented but largely unproven youngsters Darrius Heyward-Bey and Louis Murphy to go along with Chaz Schilens and tight end Zach Miller. Look for Schilens and Murphy to handle most of the intermediate and underneath patterns.
Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will share time at running back, with the hope that Bush’s inside running compliments McFadden’s ability to get to the edge of the defense.
Along the offensive line, the Raiders are hoping for improvement from within, given that the only change will be Khalif Barnes taking over for the departed Cornell Green at right tackle. This unit’s poor performance has hurt the team over the past couple of years, and it’s not a stretch to suggest it could happen again in 2010.
QB Jason Campbell
After suffering through the JaMarcus Russell era, the Raiders moved on with the acquisition of Campbell from the Redskins. While Campbell failed to achieve much success in Washington, he has plenty of excuses to fall back on. The Redskins regularly changed offensive coordinators, failed to develop a wide receiver opposite Santana Moss, and watched the offensive line fall apart in 2009 due to age and injuries. Before dismissing Campbell’s prospects in Oakland, it is worth noting that the Raiders passing offense was significantly better last year when Russell was on the bench in favor of Bruce Gradkowski or Charlie Frye. Campbell is much better than Gradkowski and Frye. Also, Zach Miller is perhaps the most underrated tight end in the league. Unfortunately, the Raiders have a young group of wide receivers that have yet to develop. While Campbell isn’t a fantasy starter, he could be a decent backup with some upside if the Raiders can get some big plays from their wide receivers.
RB Michael Bush
Bush has been Oakland’s healthiest and most effective back running the football over the past two seasons, but you would never know that based on his playing time. Presumably the Raiders will eventually figure that out. Bush is a solid inside runner with an ability to make tacklers miss on the second level. He is expected to split time with McFadden but figures to get the goal line work. When it comes down to backs splitting time, the best fantasy option is usually the one who gets the goal line work. While others overspend on Darren McFadden, you can wait and get the value pick in Bush.
RB Darren McFadden
McFadden has been a major disappointment over his first two years in the league. He has not displayed the big play ability he showed in college and has not been effective running the ball, averaging just 3.9 yards per carry (3.4 in 2009). While he has the talent to bust out, the odds seem remote given his lack of production and the Raiders offensive prospects in 2010. Basically, the Raiders offense is in shambles, and McFadden has done nothing in his two years to prove that he’s a feature back.
WR Chaz Schilens
On the plus side, the Raiders figure to be better at quarterback with Jason Campbell, and Schilens is Oakland’s best receiver, at least on entering training camp. On the down side, he recently had follow-up surgery on his left foot, which he broke last August. Even if the Raiders passing offense is much improved, Schilens may be too injury-prone to be on the field to reap the benefits. If healthy, he shapes up as bye week filler. Given his injury history, there are other backup wide receivers with more upside and less risk.
WR Darrius Heyward-Bey
Heyward-Bey is coming off a rookie season in which he looked completely lost. With Michael Crabtree looking like a future stud across the bay in San Francisco, the Raiders are looking mighty foolish in selecting Heyward-Bey based on his superior speed over the more talented Crabtree. Offseason reports indicate that Heyward-Bey has stepped up his game, but most teams put out glowing offseason reports, particularly for young players who have been disappointments. The validity of his progress is debatable, and improvement should be expected given how bad he was last year. But how much improvement can you expect from a player who had two multiple-reception games in 2009 and finished the year with nine receptions for 124 yards and one touchdown? Let others reach for Heyward-Bey.
WR Louis Murphy
Darrius Heyward-Bey was the Raiders rookie wide receiver getting all of the attention in 2009, but Murphy was the Raiders rookie wide receiver getting all of the production. The fourth round pick had a surprisingly solid rookie season with 521 receiving yards and four touchdowns. He displayed big play ability, averaging 15.3 yards per reception. With Jason Campbell under center in 2010, Murphy’s prospects for improvement are solid. One notable hiccup to his 2009 season is that he managed to catch just 34 of 96 targets, although that can be at least partially explained by the team’s poor quarterback play. Nonetheless, of the Raiders wide receivers, Murphy has the best potential for a solid season in 2010. While fantasy owners are reaching for Heyward-Bey and Chaz Schilens, scoop up Murphy as the best value of the three.
TE Zach Miller
Miller doesn’t get the credit he deserves, mostly because he has never had the chance to play with a decent quarterback. However, he gets a decent quarterback for the first time in his career in Jason Campbell. That is, unless the Raiders do the unthinkable and hand the job to Bruce Gradkowski. Miller is the most underrated tight end in the league, so he could surprise with Campbell under center. If there’s one Raider to own in the passing game, Miller is that player. Consider him a solid sleeper prospect at tight end.
By: Dave Stringer — July 1, 2010 @ 11:38 am
 Kansas City begins year two of its rebuilding phase under general manager Scott Pioli and head coach Todd Haley. Last year, the Chiefs managed to win four games, doubling their win total from 2008. While that isn’t exactly a major accomplishment, Pioli gutted the team’s roster of its dead weight and added important pieces such as quarterback Matt Cassel.
While Cassel’s results weren’t overly impressive, his struggles were amplified by playing behind perhaps the worst offensive line in the league and a wide receiver depth chart lacking talent and unable to make up for the loss of Dwayne Bowe’s four game suspension. The Chiefs are hoping for more from Cassel this year and he figures to improve as Pioli bolstered the offensive line with the free agent additions of guard Ryan Lilja and center Casey Wiegmann. The team is hoping for major improvements at left tackle from Brandon Albert and at right tackle from Ryan O’Callaghan in his first full season with the team.
Jamaal Charles excelled after being handed the starting running back duties when Larry Johnson was released. The team added Thomas Jones in the off-season to spell Charles, which gives the Chiefs solid depth in the backfield. Jones is coming off a career year rushing for 1402 yards and 14 touchdowns, finishing as a top-ten fantasy back in 2009.
At wide receiver, Dexter McCluster was added in the 2nd-round of the draft to provide some playmaking ability. The college running back will shift to a slot receiver role, getting the occasional carry as a running back and potentially be the quarterback in the Wildcat formation. The Chiefs are also banking on a return to form from Bowe, whose maturity and dedication remain major question marks.
Offensive coordinator Charlie Weis was added to reduce Haley’s workload. Weis was known as a creative play caller in New England and figures to run multiple formations to create mismatches for speedsters Charles and McCluster.
The Chiefs finished 2009 ranked 25th in passing offense and 11th in rushing, although their rushing mark was aided by 317 yards in week 17 against the Broncos. Given the off-season moves in coaching staff and player personnel look for the Chiefs to improve, but middle of the pack is likely their high-water mark for 2010.
QB Matt Cassel
Cassel put up solid numbers starting 15 games for the Patriots in 2008 and there were some concerns that his production was more of a product of the talent around him than what he brought to the table. His first year in Kansas City more or less confirmed those suspicions as Cassel struggled behind a shoddy offensive line. There is some hope for 2010 with improvements along the front and a new offensive coordinator in Charlie Weiss. In addition, Cassel should have Dwayne Bowe and Chris Chambers for an entire season and the Chiefs are hoping that dynamic scatback/slot receiver Dexter McCluster, drafted in the 2nd-round, provides a major shot in the arm to the offense. Cassell will need his receivers to avoid injury and McCluster to be a reliable weapon out of the slot or else he is destined for fantasy irrelevance in 2010.
RB Jamaal Charles
Charles was a monster over the final eight games of last season with 968 rushing yards and seven touchdowns. He also displayed solid receiving ability and looked like a potential top-10 fantasy back when 2009 ended. However, the Chiefs signed Thomas Jones this off-season and he figures to eat into the goal line work of Charles and likely get 10-12 carries a game. Don’t be concerned about the addition of Dexter McCluster. He’s going to be used in the slot with Charles the main threat out of the backfield on first and second down. Charles has big play ability and is one of the more intriguing players in fantasy given his huge upside, which is accompanied by the risk of having perhaps the top backup running back in the league pushing for playing time.
RB Thomas Jones
The Chiefs showed their concern for over-working Jamaal Charles with the signing of Jones, who is coming off two top-10 fantasy seasons. He had a career year in 2009 with 1,402 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Jones is a solid inside runner with an ability to get outside, although he did seem to lose a step in 2009. His presence is going to reduce Charles’ workload and he’s a must-have handcuff for Charles owners. The Chiefs offense isn’t a powerhouse but is good enough to give Jones consideration in leagues that employ the flex position.
WR Dwayne Bowe
Bowe enters 2010 in need of a solid season to secure a long-term contract in Kansas City. He has been an enigma due to off-field issues, poor practice habits, and questionable comments to the press – not to mention a suspension that cost him four games in 2009. Basically, he is a talented player who needs to get his **** together and stay out of Todd Haley’s doghouse. It’s worth noting his next misadventure could result in a 16-game suspension. Bowe’s fantasy status is that of a WR3 but he carries some significant risks and will likely be drafted before he should in most leagues due to his solid production during in the first two years of his career (2,017 yards and 12 touchdowns).
WR Chris Chambers
Chambers became the default number one wideout in Kansas City last season given the troubles of Dwayne Bowe and became a nice fill-in for fantasy owners, but he’s always struggled with consistency and that isn’t likely to change now that he has a shiny, new contract. Fantasy owners won’t forget his disappearing act in San Diego for a year and a half despite playing in one of the league’s top offenses. The Chiefs figure to be behind plenty in 2010 so that will allow Chambers to pad his stats but his inconsistency will give you fits. Consider him a solid backup or a low end WR3 with little upside.
WR Dexter McCluster
Looking to add some playmaking ability to the offense, the Chiefs used their second-round pick in the 2010 draft on McCluster. He will shift to the slotback position after playing running back in college. However, the Chiefs will use him in a variety of roles with off-season reports indicating he is running the Wildcat in OTA’s. At 5’9” and 172 pounds, McCluster has good short area quickness and the ability to make tacklers miss in space but he timed out at 4.58 in the 40 at the combine and there was some surprise when the Chiefs took him with the 36th pick overall. He figures to get plenty of touches during his rookie season and it will be interesting to see how he handles the workload given his size. While the Chiefs would love for him to develop into a Wes Welker clone, that is unlikely to happen in 2010. He is a decent prospect in dynasty league but is waiver wire material in re-draft formats.
TE Brad Cottam
Cottam, who is coming off a neck injury, will battle Leonard Pope for the starting tight end spot for the Chiefs but there isn’t much upside here. New offensive coordinator Charlie Weiss doesn’t throw to the tight end much making Cottam waiver wire material at best.
TE Leonard Pope
Chiefs have to throw to some tight end. Maybe Pope’s the guy, or maybe not. And even if he is, he shouldn’t be on your fantasy roster.
By: Dave Stringer — June 30, 2010 @ 11:04 am
 The Broncos enter 2010 on the heels of a disappointing 2009 campaign in which they started out 6-0 but stumbled down the stretch to finish 8-8. The team’s defense crumbled during a four–game losing streak at the end of the season, allowing 1,573 yards and 122 points over that stretch.
The defense has been addressed this off-season, including three new starters along the defensive line with several veterans signed to plug the holes. The most significant off-season move was the trade of star wide receiver Brandon Marshall to Miami.
Marshall became the second young Pro Bowl quality player (following quarterback Jay Cutler) to be shipped out by head coach Josh McDaniels, who enters 2010 squarely on the hot seat.
Quarterback Kyle Orton posted career-high numbers in most categories last year but there are no guarantees he will be the team’s starter throughout 2010. The Broncos traded back into Round 1 of the NFL Draft to select Florida quarterback Tim Tebow and acquired former first-round pick Brady Quinn from the Browns via trade. If Orton falters, look for the Broncos to bench him quickly.
At running back, Knowshon Moreno figures to get the majority of work and his running style meshes better with the power running attack the Broncos will employ this year. However, a breakout season might not be in the cards if the passing offense struggles and with a lack of weapons on the outside, there’s a good chance it will.
With Marshall in Miami, the Broncos will turn to aging veterans Brandon Stokley and Jabar Gaffney as well as third-year player Eddie Royal along with rookies Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. While McDaniels may not have appreciated Marshall’s attitude, he will struggle to replace his production with the current crop of wide receivers on the roster.
QB Kyle Orton
Orton is coming off a career year in which he completed over 62% of his passes while throwing for 3,802 yards and 21 touchdowns (all career highs) with only 12 interceptions. The Broncos were so impressed they brought in not one but two quarterbacks to compete with him. They acquired Brady Quinn from the Browns in a trade and moved up into the first round to select Tim Tebow. If the Broncos aren’t impressed, then you shouldn’t be either. With Brandon Marshall having been traded and Eddie Royal coming off a horrific sophomore season, the wide receiver depth chart is littered with veteran retreads and rookies. It will come as no surprise if Quinn or Tebow gets a shot early in 2010.
QB Brady Quinn
When the Broncos acquired Quinn from the Browns, the initial thought was he would be given an opportunity to unseat Kyle Orton with many prognosticators thinking he would enter the season as the team’s starter. However, head coach Josh McDaniels has twice stated that Orton will begin the pre-season as the starter. The Broncos system featured numerous short and intermediate routes in 2009 so accuracy is a point of emphasis, which doesn’t work to Quinn’s advantage. His average completion percentage in three years with Cleveland was a woeful 52.1%. While Quinn may eventually get a shot in 2010, he appears to be a work in progress and would only be keeping the position warm for rookie Tim Tebow.
RB Knowshon Moreno
Entering the offseason, Moreno looked like a potential top-10 fantasy running back. Despite hitting the rookie wall late last season (2.7 yards per rush over his last four games), Moreno had a solid rookie campaign running for 947 yards and 7 touchdowns while showing adequate pass receiving ability. The Broncos have indicated they plan on getting Moreno more touches, which is music to the ears of fantasy owners, however, the trade of Brandon Marshall to Miami leaves the team void of a proven number one receiver and the quarterback situation also looks desperate. It won’t be a surprise if Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow is starting at some point – both factors could lead to opposing defenses stacking the box against Moreno until the Broncos prove they have playmakers in the passing game. Moreno shapes up as a mid-tier RB2 with upside.
RB Correll Buckhalter
At times in 2009, Buckhalter seemed to outplay hotshot rookie Knowshon Moreno, particularly in the running game averaging 5.3 yards per carry to Moreno’s 3.8. However, the Broncos plan to feature Moreno more in 2010 and have signed J.J. Arrington to help as a receiver out of the backfield which means Buckhalter is looking at fewer touches this season. If Moreno goes down with an injury, Buckhalter’s value would kick into gear given Arrington is not a good insider runner. Buckhalter is worthy of drafting as a handcuff but doesn’t figure to be useful as a flex option in leagues until more opportunities on the field present themselves.
WR Eddie Royal
Royal was one of the biggest fantasy disappointments in 2009, finishing with 345 yards receiving and 0 touchdowns after a rookie season of 91 receptions for 980 yards and 5 TDs. One of the most disconcerting aspects of Royal’s 2009 season was most of his targets came on short passes yet he caught only 46.8% of passes thrown his way, whereas Marshall had more deep attempts and caught 65.6% of his targets. Brandon Marshall has been traded and head coach Josh McDaniels has given lip service that Royal is going to be more involved in 2010. This coach speak should be viewed with some skepticism since the Broncos used 2010 draft picks on wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker. Nonetheless, there is some upside here but don’t reach too early for Royal. Consider him a low-end WR3 but monitor how he is used in the preseason.
WR Demaryius Thomas
Head coach Josh McDaniels clearly has little use for any player he didn’t bring in so Thomas, drafted in the 1st round this year, figures to get plenty of playing time. Unfortunately, he might be catching (or trying to catch) passes from Brady Quinn or Tim Tebow by mid-season. There’s a good chance he’ll be in the starting lineup Week 1 but the quarterback situation and overall prospects for the Broncos offense will make it difficult for him to have a solid impact as a rookie. He is definitely a viable prospect in dynasty leagues but will be drafted before he should in re-draft leagues. It’s all about value and raw, rookie receivers with unstable quarterback situations should generally be avoided.
WR Jabar Gaffney
Gaffney was surprisingly productive last year, finishing second on the team to Brandon Marshall with 54 catches and 732 yards and a pair of touchdowns. However, 213 of those yards came in the final game of the season against Kansas City and he scored his two touchdowns in week 16 making his fantasy consistency factor useless in 2009. The wide receiver situation in Denver is unsettled and Gaffney may enter the season in the starting line-up although that may change as the season progresses given the rookies on the roster. The bottom line: slight upside with Gaffney to go along with plenty of risk.
WR Eric Decker
Let’s see, Josh McDaniels clearly likes his guys, Eddie Royal isn’t one of them and he was a bust last season. Jabar Gaffney and Brandon Stokley aren’t the long-term answers so Decker will get a shot at some point and don’t be surprised if it’s this year. However, expecting much from the 2010 3rd-round pick is a bit of a stretch considering the team appears to be reloading on offense and has personnel issues at the quarterback position.
TE Daniel Graham
Tony Scheffler is gone so Graham will move into the starting lineup, which unfortunately means nothing to fantasy owners. Graham is a blocking specialist and the Broncos don’t significantly utilize the tight end in the passing game. Graham may not even beat out second-year player Richard Quinn for the starting spot. Frankly, having a back-up tight end on a good offensive team would bring more fantasy benefit than either tight end options in Denver.
TE Richard Quinn
Inexplicably, the Broncos took Quinn at the back end of the 2nd-round in 2009, which is far too early for a blocking tight end (12 receptions over his last two years in college). With the trade of Tony Scheffler to Detroit, Quinn will battle Daniel Graham for playing time. Offseason reports indicate Quinn has struggled catching the ball so he should be avoided for fantasy purposes.
By: Dave Stringer — June 29, 2010 @ 7:58 am
 The Jets enter 2010 hoping to better their 2009 season that saw them reach the AFC Conference Finals before losing to the Indianapolis Colts. Rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez led the Jets on their surprising playoff run, playing a caretaker role with the team’s rushing attack and exceptional defense leading the way.
The Jets offense will once again feature the run in 2010. They remain largely intact minus left guard Alan Faneca and starting running back Thomas Jones – both released. Jones was let go despite having a career year with 1,402 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns. Shonn Greene, a second-year player who flashed in the playoffs, takes over as the team’s starting running back and former Charger great LaDainian Tomlinson was signed to fill a backup role.
Big things are expected of Greene, who has the size to run over tacklers and the agility and speed to beat them in the open field. While his potential as a runner in unquestioned, his receiving ability leaves something to be desired as evidenced by his zero receptions as a rookie.
The signing of Santonio Holmes from the Steelers would lead you to believe that offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has ideas of opening up the passing game. He will also have a full year of Braylon Edwards at his disposal, who was acquired after week four of last season. While more is expected from the Jets passing attack, a fantasy breakout campaign from Sanchez is unlikely given New York’s run-first mentality and both Edwards and Holmes may struggle to produce consistent fantasy points given the limited targets and multiple receiving options.
QB Mark Sanchez
Sanchez figures to improve on a decent rookie season and benefits from the team’s trade for Santonio Holmes as well as the their ability to bring in a veteran running back to replace Thomas Jones. He is surrounded by solid skill position players to go along with one of the league’s best offensive lines so the ingredients for fantasy success are there for Sanchez in 2010. Although the Jets feature two solid running backs to go along with three proven wide receivers and a pass catching tight end, they will likely once again rely on the run more than any other team. The reality is, Sanchez will likely be drafted before he should be and his upside is limited in an offense that takes few risks and relies heavily on the run.
RB Shonn Greene
Last year, Greene was an up and coming rookie playing behind Thomas Jones, who had a career year. The two backs combined for 1,942 yards and 16 touchdowns on the ground. This year, the team returns all of its key starters on offense except for left guard Alan Faneca and the addition of wide receiver Santonio Holmes figures to make the offense more explosive. Greene takes over the feature role with an aging LaDainian Tomlinson in reserve and the likelihood is that he will handle more of the workload in 2010 than Jones did in 2009. Look for Greene to approach Jones’ 1,400 rushing yards with more touchdowns, production that will put him just outside the top five running backs for fantasy purposes.
RB LaDainian Tomlinson
For those of you out there looking for a return to glory for LT in New York, you can think again. The Jets jettisoned Thomas Jones and replaced him with LT partly because they were worried about Jones accepting a demotion to backup Greene. While Jones had over 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns last year, LT only had 730 in San Diego, averaging a paltry 3.3 yards per carry. Simply put, LT’s not likely going to eat into Greene’s goal line carries but should have reasonable production behind the Jets solid offensive line.
WR Braylon Edwards
Edwards is a maddeningly inconsistent player on a team that likes to run the ball plenty. Even with the acquisition of Santonio Holmes, Edwards is likely to fulfill the role as the team’s main deep threat. On the plus side, he is likely the only Jets receiver who will start 16 games in 2010. On the down side, he averaged just six targets a game with the Jets, too low to even be a WR3. Let others bite on this overrated receiver who has just 1,553 receiving yards and seven touchdowns over the last two years.
WR Santonio Holmes
Holmes finally delivered on his promise with a solid season in 2009 but still left something to be desired with only five touchdowns, including a nine-game stretch when he failed to find the end zone. However, with a four-game suspension and moving from a Steelers offense that featured the pass in 2009 to a Jets offense that throws only when it has to, expect a large drop in his production in 2010. Buy low and hope he contributes heavily over twelve games.
WR Jerricho Cotchery
Cotchery has been a solid player for the Jets but there was always the lingering suspicion that the team wasn’t sold on his abilities. With Braylon Edwards and Santonio Holmes being acquired over the last year, that suspicion was confirmed. In leagues that feature 15-18 roster spots, Cotchery isn’t worth drafting since he won’t get enough targets to be a fantasy difference maker.
TE Dustin Keller
More was expected from Keller in his second year but he was held in to pass block more than expected. His production received a boost when Leon Washington went down but not as much as expected. The Jets underutilized Keller in 2009 and with Santonio Holmes now on board to compliment Braylon Edwards and Jerricho Cotchery, there is no reason to expect that to change in 2010.
By: Dave Stringer — June 28, 2010 @ 6:19 am
 With Tom Brady at the helm, the Patriots were one of the league’s best offensive teams again in 2009. While it was expected the team would generate significant yards in the passing game, the team’s ability to effectively run the ball came as a surprise.
Despite lacking a featured runner and having injury problems at the position, the Patriots were a very solid twelfth in the league in rushing. Laurence Maroney came back strong after a disappointing year in 2008 and showcased the ability to be the team’s lead runner. Fumbling kept him on the bench at times but he played well enough to warrant consideration as a sleeper pick.
Although the Patriots figure to be solid on offense in 2010, there are more risks than in seasons past…
Left tackle Matt Light appeared to be a player in decline last year, the tight end position is a major question mark and most significantly, slot wide receiver Wes Welker, the league’s best at the position, is coming off a serious knee injury that occurred late in 2009. Of course, the possibility of a Randy Moss blow up remains. While those issues could have a material impact on the offense, most NFL teams would gladly trade their offensive situation for the Patriots “problems”.
QB Tom Brady
Brady is coming off a somewhat disappointing 2009 campaign as the seventh ranked fantasy quarterback. However, 43 of his fantasy points came during a 59-0 blowout win over Tennessee. In 2010, expect similar numbers from Brady and an improvement over 2009 seems reasonable given he will be two years removed from the ACL injury that derailed his 2008 season. However, much hinges on the health of Wes Welker, the league’s best slot receiver and Brady’s unquestioned security blanket on third down. Randy Moss returns and veteran Torry Holt is better suited for to the third role than Joey Galloway and Sam Aiken were last year. Welker’s health needs to be monitored but reports indicate he could be ready on week one. If that holds, Brady is headed for a top five fantasy ranking in 2010.
RB Laurence Maroney
Maroney is the ultimate tease for fantasy owners and Patriots fans. He seemingly changes from looking like a stud running back to a player more interested in avoiding contact by stepping out of bounds from play to play. He is coming off a modest season in 2009 where he finished with 757 rushing yards and nine touchdowns even though he found himself in coach Bill Belichick’s doghouse courtesy of four fumbles. During a nine-game stretch from week 7 to week 15, Maroney averaged almost 14 fantasy points per game on 709 total yards and nine touchdowns while averaging almost 19 touches per game. If he can avoid Belichick’s doghouse, he is a decent option as a fantasy backup with some upside given the age of the Patriots other running backs.
RB Sammy Morris
Morris is a dependable back whose ability running between the tackles keeps him employed. However his sporadic playing time in the Patriots backfield gives fantasy owners fits. Sure he will score a few fantasy points but it will almost certainly happen when he’s sitting on your bench. Injuries generally hold Morris back. He has played 16 games only three times during his ten years in the league all of which occurred during seasons where he was barely used. While he’s a key cog in the running back-by-committee approach used by the Patriots, you should avoid him in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues given his lack of upside, injury history and competition for carries in New England.
RB Fred Taylor
The Patriots were hoping Taylor would have a resurgence during his first year in New England but that failed to materialize as he suffered through the worst year of his 12-year career. An ankle injury limited him to just six games and he finished with just 269 yards rushing and four touchdowns. Laurence Maroney played well in Taylor’s absence and will enter training camp as the favorite to start in 2010. Maroney does have a history of disappointing so Taylor may be worth adding as a waiver-wire pickup in-season should Maroney falter.
RB Kevin Faulk
Faulk keeps on chugging at age 34 and has yet to relinquish his role as the Patriots top receiving option out of the backfield. If the Patriots are behind late in games (which happens more frequently now), Faulk is generally in the backfield for his receiving and pass protection abilities. However, predicting when he will be used is difficult and given his age, there is no chance he will earn enough touches on a consistent basis to even fill a role as a flex player. Faulk is strictly a fill in option in all leagues.
WR Randy Moss
Moss comes off a 2009 campaign in which he had solid statistics while not necessarily being a solid citizen. In 2010, the stars may be aligned for Moss to have an excellent fantasy season, perhaps even supplanting Andre Johnson as the top fantasy wide receiver. Success = opportunity + motivation + ability and Moss has all three. Opportunity – Wes Welker may miss the early part of the season or at best be limited as he recovers from tears to his ACL and MCL. Motivation – Moss is entering a contract year and hoping for one final big payday. Ability – In the two years that Brady has been healthy, Moss has accumulated 2,757 receiving yards and 36 touchdowns. In addition, Brady will be two years removed from tearing his ACL. Expect plenty of targets, plenty of big games and plenty of production from Moss in 2010.
WR Wes Welker
Welker has been PPR gold with 347 receptions for 3,688 yards over the last three years however, he tore both his ACL and MCL during the last regular season game of 2009 leaving his fantasy prospects for 2010 on shaky ground. A full recovery from such a severe injury seems unlikely. Although some reports indicate he may be ready on opening day, it is wishful thinking to suggest he will be 100% by week one. In fact, it is likely wishful thinking to expect he will be fully recovered at any time during 2010. Welker relies on quick cuts on short and intermediate routes to get open and the injury he suffered will at least partially negate his strengths as a receiver. A fourth straight 100-catch season isn’t in the cards and Welker is unlikely to be a solid fantasy contributor in 2010.
WR Torry Holt
Holt has spent the last few years wallowing in the moribund passing attacks of the Rams and Jaguars. This year, he moves from the run heavy offense in Jacksonville to an offense led by one of the league’s top quarterbacks in Tom Brady. In 2009, Holt never seemed to be on the same page with quarterback David Garrard and the two missed several opportunities to connect for big plays. Still, the veteran managed 51 receptions for 722 yards (both career lows) for a respectable 14.2 yards per catch but suffered fantasy wise as he failed to find the end zone. If you subscribe to the theory that the Patriots want a dependable receiver to start opposite Randy Moss and Wes Welker, then Holt is your bet to win the job ahead of second year player Brandon Tate, rookie Taylor Price and Julian Edelman. Even so, Holt has limited upside in 2010 unless he can rediscover his ability to find the end zone.
WR Julian Edelman
Edelman quickly proved himself to be a Wes Welker clone during his rookie season in 2009. An injury to Wes Welker allowed Edelman to haul in 16 passes for 147 yards and 2 touchdowns during week 17 and the Patriots playoff loss against the Ravens. Edelman figures to be used heavily early in 2010 unless Welker is fully recovered from the significant knee injuries he sustained late last season. Edelman is clearly worthy of being drafted and has significant upside in PPR leagues if Welker fails to regain full health.
TE Alge Crumpler
The days of watching Crumpler split the safeties down the field are long gone. Although he moves to the pass-happy Pats in 2010, there is little chance of him resurrecting his days as one of the league’s top receiving threats at the tight end position. He has morphed into more of a blocker late in his career by adding several pounds, which in turn hampers his ability to get open. Too many dropped passes in 2009 show that Crumpler’s skills as a receiver seem to be on the decline. He’s no better than a TE2 for your fantasy league in 2010.
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