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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer


Top 150 Big Board, Non-PPR: Version 1.0
Preseason Matchup Analysis
8/10/19

PPR | Half-Pt PPR | Non-PPR

Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to evaluate and analyze well because 11 men are being asked to work in harmony roughly 60 times per game, while 11 other men are being asked to create chaos. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team can clear out one side of the court when things break down and the offense can still score. Pro football is not pro baseball in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was, he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, a player always needs help from at least one teammate to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes football so great and part of what it makes it so highly unpredictable. The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards in this day and age - adds another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.

Regardless, it doesn't mean we shouldn't try. Over the last two weeks, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players. Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make 7,500 "decisions". This is not meant to be a humble brag of any kind. Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at their disposal. I like to think that even if readers believe my logic is flawed for whatever reason, they can count on the fact that much thought has been put into that opinion.

Fantasy football is a stock market game, and our job as analysts is identifying when stocks may be poised for an increase or ready to tank. While last year's results help owners/analysts set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not reactive. This is the approach I have taken for more than 10 years. While some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal has not.

Speaking of changing processes, the Success Score Index (SSI) below is moving away from an attribute-based algorithm and one centered around my target and carry predictions that have been featured in this space over the last two weeks. As always, the matchups are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly, I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.). Long story short, I am much more confident in the product. SSI also helps me set me tiers, essentially giving me (and you) a vertical and horizontal board in one place.

New to this Big Board and moving forward, I am including my fantasy-point projections as well. For those of you interested in my actual individual player projections, please tweet or email me.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the color-coding system before we start:

Red For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: Players with a next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout concern. Players with a * next to their name have a higher than normal chance of losing their job at some point during the season.

Next week, I will release my first Big Boards for 0.5 PPR leagues as well as The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. In the second and final round of Big Boards near the end of the preseason, I will rank at least 200 players and present my final rankings for kickers and defense/special teams.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the Non-PPR format:

 Non-PPR Big Board - Top 150
Rank Pos Player Tm Age FPts SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB1 Saquon Barkley NYG 22 291.2 170.2
2 RB2 Alvin Kamara NO 24 278.5 158.0
3 RB3 Christian McCaffrey CAR 23 268.7 147.7
4 RB4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 24 260.5 138.5
5 RB5 James Conner PIT 24 242.7 120.7
6 WR1 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 27 220.8 120.3
7 RB6 David Johnson ARI 27 241.8 120.3
8 RB7 Nick Chubb CLE 23 235.6 114.1
9 WR2 Julio Jones ATL 30 214.5 113.0
10 RB8 Todd Gurley LAR 25 233.2 110.2
11 RB9 Le'Veon Bell NYJ 27 231.0 108.5
12 RB10 Dalvin Cook MIN 24 231.1 108.1
13 WR3 Davante Adams GB 26 206.1 104.1
14 WR4 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 22 205.1 103.6
15 RB11 Melvin Gordon LAC 26 224.3 102.3
16 RB12 Joe Mixon CIN 23 218.6 96.6
17 WR5 Tyreek Hill KC 25 195.9 93.4
18 RB13 Derrick Henry TEN 25 214.2 93.2
19 RB14 Leonard Fournette JAC 24 212.9 90.4
20 RB15 Kerryon Johnson DET 22 208.9 86.9
21 WR6 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE 26 188.8 86.3
22 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 29 185.0 85.0
23 RB16 Chris Carson SEA 24 207.3 84.8
24 WR7 Mike Evans TB 25 185.4 84.4
25 RB17 Mark Ingram BAL 29 205.6 84.1
26 RB18 Marlon Mack IND 23 204.5 82.0
27 RB19 Josh Jacobs OAK 21 202.1 80.6
28 RB20 Devonta Freeman ATL 27 200.5 78.5
29 WR8 Michael Thomas NO 26 170.5 69.5
30 WR9 T.Y. Hilton IND 29 170.5 69.5
31 RB21 David Montgomery CHI 22 189.8 68.3
32 RB22 Aaron Jones GB 24 191.2 68.2
33 TE2 George Kittle SF 25 168.1 68.1
34 WR10 Adam Thielen MIN 28 166.9 66.4
35 WR11 Amari Cooper DAL 25 167.2 66.2
36 RB23 Damien Williams KC 27 186.6 64.6
37 WR12 Brandin Cooks LAR 25 162.2 61.2
38 QB1 Deshaun Watson HOU 23 368.5 60.0
39 WR13 Stefon Diggs MIN 25 161.3 59.3
40 QB2 Patrick Mahomes KC 23 370.8 58.3
41 WR14 Keenan Allen LAC 27 158.4 57.4
42 WR15 Kenny Golladay DET 25 158.7 56.7
43 WR16 Antonio Brown OAK 31 157.8 55.8
44 RB24 Sony Michel NE 24 177.0 54.5
45 WR17 Calvin Ridley ATL 24 153.2 52.2
46 WR18 D.J. Moore CAR 22 153.3 51.8
47 WR19 Mike Williams LAC 24 153.3 51.8
48 QB3 Aaron Rodgers GB 35 358.8 51.3
49 WR20 Chris Godwin TB 23 150.9 49.9
50 WR21 Robby Anderson NYJ 26 151.2 49.7
51 WR22 Tyler Boyd CIN 24 149.7 48.2
52 WR23 Tyler Lockett SEA 26 148.2 47.2
53 WR24 Robert Woods LAR 27 148.5 47.0
54 TE3 O.J. Howard TB 24 146.0 46.0
55 RB25 Kenyan Drake MIA 25 165.9 44.9
56 RB26 Phillip Lindsay DEN 25 165.4 43.9
57 RB27 Lamar Miller * HOU 28 165.2 43.7
58 WR25 Allen Robinson CHI 25 150.4 40.4
59 WR26 Julian Edelman NE 33 142.2 40.2
60 TE4 Zach Ertz PHI 28 137.1 37.1
61 WR27 Curtis Samuel CAR 22 139.4 36.9
62 WR28 Sammy Watkins KC 26 138.9 36.4
63 RB28 Latavius Murray NO 29 157.2 36.2
64 WR29 Christian Kirk ARI 22 136.4 34.9
65 WR30 Alshon Jeffery PHI 29 135.2 33.2
66 TE5 Hunter Henry LAC 24 132.9 32.9
67 WR31 A.J. Green CIN 31 134.9 32.4
68 WR32 DeSean Jackson PHI 32 134.3 31.8
69 WR33 Cooper Kupp LAR 26 133.1 31.1
70 RB29 Jordan Howard * PHI 24 150.4 29.4
71 WR34 Anthony Miller CHI 24 130.1 28.1
72 RB30 Ronald Jones TB 22 149.5 27.5
73 WR35 Dede Westbrook JAC 25 129.4 27.4
74 WR36 Courtland Sutton DEN 23 127.4 25.9
75 RB31 Royce Freeman DEN 23 146.4 24.4
76 TE6 Jared Cook NO 32 124.2 24.2
77 QB4 Kyler Murray ARI 22 330.3 23.8
78 QB5 Cam Newton CAR 30 330.2 23.7
79 RB32 James White NE 27 144.6 23.6
80 WR37 Will Fuller HOU 25 126.5 23.5
81 TE7 Evan Engram NYG 24 123.4 23.4
82 RB33 Rashaad Penny SEA 23 144.7 22.7
83 RB34 Tevin Coleman SF 26 143.9 21.9
84 WR38 Marvin Jones DET 29 123.4 21.4
85 WR39 Jarvis Landry CLE 26 121.1 20.1
86 WR40 Geronimo Allison * GB 25 122.1 20.1
87 TE8 Darren Waller OAK 26 119.4 19.4
88 WR41 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 35 119.2 18.7
89 QB6 Carson Wentz PHI 26 322.7 18.2
90 WR42 Sterling Shepard NYG 26 119.3 17.8
91 WR43 Donte Moncrief PIT 26 119.6 17.6
92 WR44 Corey Davis TEN 24 117.9 16.4
93 RB35 Miles Sanders PHI 22 135.9 14.4
94 TE9 Vance McDonald PIT 29 113.9 13.9
95 QB7 Russell Wilson SEA 30 321.1 13.6
96 QB8 Jameis Winston TB 25 322.6 13.1
97 QB9 Matt Ryan ATL 34 321.5 13.0
98 WR45 Dante Pettis * SF 23 114.2 12.7
99 RB36 Kalen Ballage MIA 23 134.0 12.5
100 WR46 Jamison Crowder NYJ 26 112.7 11.2
101 RB37 Derrius Guice WAS 22 133.2 11.2
102 WR47 Tyrell Williams OAK 27 111.0 10.5
103 RB38 Duke Johnson HOU 25 132.9 10.4
104 RB39 Tarik Cohen CHI 24 131.2 10.2
105 RB40 LeSean McCoy BUF 31 132.2 9.7
106 RB41 Matt Breida SF 24 130.9 8.9
107 TE10 Mark Andrews BAL 23 108.5 8.5
108 RB42 Austin Ekeler LAC 24 129.7 8.2
109 WR48 D.K. Metcalf SEA 21 109.7 7.2
110 WR49 John Brown BUF 29 109.5 7.0
111 TE11 Eric Ebron IND 26 107.0 7.0
112 TE12 David Njoku CLE 23 105.9 5.9
113 QB10 Andrew Luck IND 29 314.8 5.3
114 TE13 Delanie Walker TEN 34 104.0 4.0
115 RB43 Adrian Peterson * WAS 34 123.4 1.4
116 TE14 Austin Hooper ATL 24 100.9 0.9
117 TE15 Jordan Reed WAS 29 99.9 -0.1
118 RB44 Dion Lewis TEN 28 121.2 -0.8
119 WR50 Michael Gallup DAL 23 99.5 -1.5
120 WR51 Kenny Stills MIA 27 99.3 -1.7
121 TE16 Chris Herndon NYJ 23 98.0 -2.0
122 WR52 Mohamed Sanu ATL 29 99.1 -2.4
123 TE17 Jimmy Graham * GB 32 97.6 -2.4
124 WR53 Marquez Valdes-Scantling GB 24 98.9 -2.6
125 WR54 DeVante Parker MIA 26 100.4 -2.6
126 QB11 Baker Mayfield CLE 24 310.9 -4.6
127 WR55 Keke Coutee HOU 22 97.2 -4.8
128 QB12 Lamar Jackson BAL 22 310.4 -5.1
129 WR56 Trey Quinn WAS 23 96.3 -5.2
130 QB13 Jared Goff LAR 24 299.3 -5.2
131 RB45 Justice Hill BAL 21 115.0 -6.5
132 WR57 Josh Doctson WAS 26 93.5 -8.5
133 RB46 Giovani Bernard CIN 27 111.8 -10.2
134 RB47 Jaylen Samuels PIT 23 111.5 -10.5
135 QB14 Dak Prescott DAL 26 300.0 -10.5
136 QB15 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 37 298.9 -10.6
137 RB48 Darrell Henderson LAR 21 109.9 -11.6
138 WR58 Breshad Perriman TB 25 90.9 -11.6
139 RB49 Jamaal Williams * GB 24 109.3 -11.7
140 WR59 Golden Tate NYG 31 88.5 -12.0
141 WR60 Devin Funchess * IND 25 89.9 -12.1
142 QB16 Drew Brees NO 40 296.2 -12.3
143 RB50 Peyton Barber * TB 25 108.6 -12.4
144 RB51 Damien Harris NE 22 108.8 -12.7
145 WR61 Albert Wilson MIA 27 89.1 -12.9
146 TE18 Trey Burton CHI 27 86.4 -13.7
147 WR62 James Washington * PIT 23 88.2 -13.8
148 WR63 Parris Campbell IND 22 87.1 -14.4
149 RB52 Alexander Mattison MIN 21 106.1 -15.4
150 TE19 Noah Fant DEN 21 84.5 -15.5


PPR Big Board | Half-Pt PPR Big Board





Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.