With Kenneth Walker out for Thursday’s game, Seattle will again
turn to rookie running back Zach Charbonnet to lead their backfield
in a matchup against the Cowboys. This game has potential implications,
so the Seahawks will really need to improve upon their lack of
offensive success over the past two weeks if they hope to keep
up with the high-powered Cowboys offense.
While he wasn’t very successful in his first game as the
lead back in the Seattle offense this past week, it’s worth
considering that he was playing against a very good San Francisco
team in an ugly game script that didn’t really allow him
to be utilized as much as Seattle would like him to be. He did,
however, still carry the ball 14 times in that game and added
four receptions. He’s now caught a total of 14 passes over
his past three games, giving him a bit of an under-the-radar PPR
floor.
This isn’t a great matchup against a very good Dallas defense,
but the Cowboys have been able to be exploited by running backs
at times this season and Charbonnet should see an extremely strong
backfield touch share in this one. There are a ton of teams on
byes this week, so don’t sleep on Charbonnet if you’re
looking for an RB2. If Seattle wins this game, it's probably going
to be because they kept the game low-scoring and fed Charbonnet
a ton of touches in the process.
Wide receiver DK Metcalf has been very up-and-down as of late,
but one thing that’s remained relatively consistent since
Seattle’s bye week is that he’s had a very strong
target share. Metcalf has seen at least a 22 percent target share
in five of his past six games and he’s on the field for
nearly 90 percent of the team’s offensive snaps each week.
Dallas has been a tough matchup for opposing wide receivers this
season, but they have given up some decent fantasy numbers to
a number of top targets in opposition passing attacks. There’s
some question as to whether or not Metcalf fits that bill, but
his opportunities make him a must-start in almost any matchup.
The Seattle passing game as a whole has taken a huge step back
this season from what we saw during Geno Smith’s magical
campaign in 2022. Obviously, we didn’t assume that he’d
continue to be a borderline elite passer, but Smith has now failed
to reach even 200 passing yards in four of his 11 starts and he’s
only exceeded 300 yards in three games with zero contests where
he’s thrown for three or more touchdowns. This lack of high-end
performances combined with plenty of very low-end performances
has made him and the rest of the Seattle passing game very difficult
to trust for fantasy purposes.
Wide receiver Tyler Lockett continues to deliver some very strong
spike weeks, but most of those have come against weaker defenses
in games that turned into shootouts. While Dallas’ offense
is capable of delivering a shootout, their defense has held opposing
offenses to 20 or fewer points scored in eight of their 11 games
played. That, combined with Seattle’s overall offensive
struggles, just doesn’t look like the recipe for one of
those patented big games from Lockett.
Rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to see far too few targets
to be trusted for fantasy purposes at the moment. While Dallas
has been exploited at times by opposing slot receivers, the lack
of volume makes JSN a low-ceiling option.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
The bye week seems to have done incredible things for the Dallas
offense, particularly their passing game, as Dak Prescott has
now thrown a whopping 17 touchdown passes over the Cowboys’
five games since the bye. Prescott has also averaged over 320
yards passing in those contests while adding another touchdown
as a runner, making him a truly elite option over the past month
and a half.
The Seattle defense hasn’t actually been too bad against
opposing quarterbacks, but they’ve also faced a lackluster
group of QBs. Yes, they did hold Lamar Jackson in check when they
played against him, but some of the other high-scoring fantasy
QBs they’ve faced, including Sam Howell and Jared Goff,
put up strong QB1 performances against this Seahawks defense.
Prescott is red hot right now and the Cowboys’ passing game
seems to be clicking, so look for them to ride that streak again
this week at home against the Seahawks.
It’s no secret that Tony Pollard has been a huge disappointment
for fantasy managers throughout much of the season, but he might
be getting back into the good graces of those who took a chance
on him as he’s now turned in back-to-back solid fantasy
days, including touchdowns against both Carolina and Washington.
Perhaps even more importantly, Pollard got back involved in the
passing game over these past two weeks, catching 10 passes, tying
the best two-game stretch he’s had all season in that department.
Pollard should be in line for another 15-to-20 touches this week
and in a high-powered offense like Dallas’, that’s
good enough to make him a low-end RB1 or at least a high-end RB2
for fantasy here in Week 13, especially considering how many usable
fantasy running backs are on byes. Seattle has given up the fourth-most
fantasy points per game to opposing backs this season, including
a 114-yard, two-touchdown performance to Christian McCaffrey this
past week.
The Dallas passing game is certainly clicking right now and it
wouldn’t be all that surprising to see Jake Ferguson get
into the end zone, but it’s hard to not be concerned about
the lack of volume that he’s seen in recent weeks. After
a 10 and a seven-target performance in Weeks 9 and 10, Ferguson
has seen his targets drop to five and three over his past two
games, both of which were blowout wins for the Cowboys.
Seattle’s defense has also been quite good against opposing
tight ends, which should give fantasy managers some pause as well.
They’ve only given up one touchdown to the position and
the most yards they’ve conceded to an opposing tight end
in a game was 80 to Mark Andrews back in Week 9 when he was targeted
10 times. Ferguson has only seen more than seven targets in a
game once this season, meaning that his chances of replicating
that 10-target game from Andrews don’t look very strong.
With Brandin Cooks getting much more involved in recent weeks,
Ferguson is now firmly the third or perhaps even fourth option
in this Cowboys passing game, which is just not enough to make
him a must-start fantasy tight end at the moment.
In the last four games, the Broncos have given Williams 89 touches…
and they’ve won all four games. I’m not saying Williams
was the reason those wins took place, but I am saying why get
away from a formula that is working. Add in the fact that C.J.
Stroud is terrifying to play against right now and the Broncos
will want to keep him off the field. Williams also hasn’t
lost a fumble all season, so he’s earned trust from his
coaches in that regard.
On one hand, Wilson will likely be included in a conservative
game plan aimed at keeping Stroud off the field (see above) and
limiting turnovers (see above). On the other, the Texans are giving
up lots of points to QBs in fantasy (26th at the position with
an average of 21.8 points surrendered). As such, while the conservative
plan may be in place at the outset of this game, a shoot-out could
ensue instead. I think Wilson might be worth the risk this weekend
as a result, but it’s still a sit on the fence proposition
for me just the same. Sutton’s value is on the fence alongside
Wilson’s for all the same reasons.
Do you really need me to tell you to fade Jeudy at this point?
With Greg Dulcich still out, Jeudy should be a prime candidate
for a break-out game, but the Broncos and his skill set just don’t
seem to gel. An average of only 3 targets per game for each of
the last four games says stay away for another week.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
One of the league’s most prolific offenses, Houston lands
no less than four players in the No-Brainer/Favorite categories
this week with Collins and Schultz being the primary focus of
the latter category. After a big start to the season, Collins
cooled a bit and then missed Week 10 vs. the Bengals due to an
injury. The last two weeks, he’s received 20 targets and
appears to be a major part of the offense once again. Start him
without hesitation.
As for Schultz, he has two things in his favor. First, he’s
coming off a quiet game and they’ll want to involve him
more this week as such. And second, the Broncos rank DEAD LAST
in points given up to opposing tight ends. Start Schultz with
confidence as well.
It has become clear to anyone watching Texans games in recent
weeks that Singletary looks to be the far superior of their two
main running backs, particularly in the passing game. That said,
in the first five games of the season, Dameon Pierce was getting
19 touches a game and it’s hard to see them not ramping him back
up to at least 10 this week. That makes Singletary a riskier play
even as the Broncos don’t stop RBs much more than they do TEs
(although that number is inflated dramatically by the Mostert/Achane
avalanche in Week 3).
Pretty simple reasoning here. It’s all about yards per
carry. Singletary is averaging 4.1 yards per carry to Pierce’s
2.9. There’s just little evidence to suggest that Pierce
has much wiggle to his game and his days of being a work horse
back are likely over as a result.
Chargers running back Austin Ekeler has had some rough games
in back-to-back weeks, but a matchup against the Patriots could
be what’s needed to get him back on track. The Patriots
defense hasn’t been particularly terrible against opposing
backs, but their own lack of offensive success and a potential
change at quarterback should mean that this game never gets out
of control for the Chargers’ offense. Ekeler is under 4.0
yards per carry this season but he continues to see 15 or more
touches in just about every game, giving him a reasonably high
floor even when the Chargers aren’t scoring a ton of points,
while also giving him a massive ceiling when they are.
Justin Herbert is certainly still the present and future of the
franchise, but he hasn’t exactly been a must-start quarterback
as of late. We could be in for another down game from the superstar
QB. It’s not that New England’s defense is particularly
scary, but the way their offense functions - or doesn’t
- often causes opposing offenses to pull their foot off the gas
pedal. Opposing quarterbacks have only exceeded 35 pass attempts
four times against New England this season. By contrast, Herbert
himself has attempted 35 or more passes in seven of his 11 games
and he’s only thrown fewer than 30 passes one time. This
lack of volume from opposing QBs has allowed New England to hold
the position to the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game. Herbert
isn’t necessarily a must-bench this week, but he certainly
lacks upside in this matchup.
Rookie wide receiver Quentin Johnston has had plenty of opportunities,
but it’s increasingly looking like he’s just not going
to break out this season. Worse yet, while he played on at least
85 percent of passing downs for the team in Weeks 9, 10 and 11,
he saw his playing time significantly decrease this past week
when he played on just 39 percent of pass plays. That also led
to just an eight percent target share - his lowest since Week
7.
It’s possible that Johnston could still turn things around,
but this isn’t likely to be a shootout game and we shouldn’t
be looking for down-the-depth-chart options to play for fantasy
in this type of game environment.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
With 20 and 21 carries over his past two weeks, Rhamondre Stevenson
is beginning to look like the player that fantasy managers had
hoped he would be when they drafted him this pre-season. Sure,
it might be late, but it’s better late than never! Stevenson
has also turned in his three best rush yardage performances of
the season in each of his past three games, with 87, 88, and 98
yards in those contests. Not only that, but he’s still contributing
in the passing game, having added 12 receptions during that stretch.
The New England offense is one of the worst in the league, but
Stevenson remains the only player who can really be trusted as
a weekly starter in fantasy.
Wide receiver Demario Douglas has missed practice throughout
the week as he’s dealing with a concussion and there’s
no guarantee that he’ll suit up for Sunday’s game
against the Chargers. If he does, Douglas does make for a somewhat
interesting low-end Flex option, as he’s caught at least
five passes in four straight games while being targeted at least
seven times in each of those contests. The upside isn’t
great given the overall New England passing game, but you could
do worse than Douglas if you’re in a pinch and he’s
active.
The Patriots have been very quiet about who will actually start
for them this weekend, but no matter who it is, fantasy managers
should be avoiding this situation at pretty much all costs. Sure,
the Chargers have been terrible against opposing quarterbacks
this season, having given up the third-most points per game to
the position, but that doesn’t change anything - this New
England passing game is terrible. It’s also looking like
Demario Douglas might not play which would only make matters worse.
Stay away.
While the Saints defense is generally regarded as “stingy”, they
are pretty generous when it comes to tight ends having surrendered
more points to that position than all but three other teams in
the NFL. Enter LaPorta, who seemed to get back on the same page
as Jared Goff on Thanksgiving Day after going through a sort of
mini-slump prior to that game taking place. Apart from Travis
Kelce, LaPorta probably represents the best play at TE for this
week as a whole.
Gibbs is going to be in almost all starting lineups this weekend,
but his usage with David Montgomery back continues to concern
me a bit. He’s only averaged 11 carries a game each of the
past three weeks and while that’s enough touches to break
off a long run or two, it keeps his floor much lower than it was
when Montgomery was hurt. I would consider him a middling RB2
even with multiple RBs out on bye.
The formula for success for the Lions this season has been smash-mouth
football with an emphasis on limiting mistakes. The past two weeks,
the smash-mouth part of that equation was executed, but the limiting
mistakes part has been a fail with Goff personally responsible
for six turnovers during that stretch. Look for the Lions to take
fewer chances this week and keep the formula simple with the Saints
limited in their receiving corps by injuries. Expect modest numbers,
thus, for Goff at best.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
This call is dependent upon Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed not
playing due to injury (see below). Derek Carr is going to have
to throw to someone if one or both are out as Michael Thomas is
now on IR. The biggest beneficiary of the all the injuries is
probably Kamara given that he already averaged nearly 8 targets
a game with the WR unit intact. That said, heavy doses of both
Perry and Hill seem inevitable as well if last weekend’s injuries
hold up. Perry hasn’t done much yet (3 catches, 45 yards, 1 TD),
so consider him as a flex only.
On one hand, what is written above should take Carr out of the
running for starting purposes. After all, the team’s top 3 WRs
may all be missing on Sunday. On the other hand, the Saints will
likely be playing from behind and that means Carr has to throw
a lot, even if check-downs to Kamara are the order of the day.
Carr has thrown for 300+ yards five times already this season,
with much of that yardage coming in the fourth quarter. The Lions
have an improved pass rush this season, but still lack the ability
to slow down QBs (27th in points allowed to the position).
Update: Chris
Olave is expected to play. Rashid Saheed is Out.
This is a fade with a big asterisk. Olave and Shaheed may both
play…or perhaps only one of them does. If either is a go, they
obviously move out of this category and Perry is no longer a “favorite”.
But, it’s just as likely that neither plays, so if you have one
of the two on your roster, a back-up plan is likely in order.
Ever since Zach Ertz (quad) was lost to a quad injury, McBride
(groin) has stepped up. Over the last five games, the second-year
tight end has racked up 33 receptions, 351 yards, and a touchdown.
His lack of red-zone production is the only asterisk on what has
been an impressive run, which spanned three different starting
quarterbacks. He is dealing with a groin injury that kept him
out of practice, so you’ll need to monitor his condition, but
assuming he starts there is a lot to like against the Steelers,
which allowed seven receptions and a touchdown to Cincy’s TEs
last week. If healthy, McBride is a midrange TE1.
Murray has been solid but unspectacular since returning from his
ACL injury. In three games, he has averaged 240 yards passing,
29 yards rushing, and 1.67 total TDs -- he has rushed for a touchdown
each week. While that’s decent value, it’s those rushing
scores that are keeping him as a viable option as he has yet to
throw for multiple touchdowns in a game. The Steelers are a bottom-10
pass defense, so the potential is there for Murray, but there’s
some downside as well.
Like Murray, Conner has played three games since being activated
from IR. The veteran back has been trending in the wrong direction,
however, going from 73 yards on 16 carries in Week 10 to 14-62-0
in Week 11 and then 6-27-0 last week. Conner hasn’t scored
since Week 3, which was also the last time he topped 100 total
yards. Part of the problem last Sunday was falling way behind
the Rams. With Arizona already all but eliminated from playoff
contention and a Bye coming up in Week 14, this feels like another
game that could get away from them. Don’t view Conner as
more than an RB3.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
A week ago, LA’s backfield tandem of Kyren Williams and Royce
Freeman combined to carry the ball 29 times for 220 yards and
a touchdown. Meanwhile, in Cincinnati, Harris (15-99-1) and Warren
(13-49-0) were racking up 148 yards and a score. The Steelers
are catching the Cardinals at a good time. They’re coming off
a physical pounding from the Rams and could be looking ahead to
their Week 14 bye. This week it’s possible to view both Harris
and Warren as high-end No. 3 backs with upside.
Life without Matt Canada calling the plays seemed to agree with
the connection of Pickett and Freiermuth, at least for one weekend.
Pickett passed for 278 yards, which was his highest output of
the season, and Freiermuth hauled in nine of 24 completions for
120 yards -- for reference, the tight end entered play last Sunday
with a 9-60-0 line for the season. Can they duplicate it? Maybe.
The Cards gave up four TD passes to the Rams in Week 12, including
two to TE Tyler Higbee, so there’s a pathway to value for both.
Then again, the Steelers might just push Arizona around like LA
did. Freiermuth could be worth trying as a low-end TE1. Pickett,
however, is a pure lottery ticket given his season-long struggles.
He went through a bit of a dry streak, but Bijan Robinson has
been getting back in the groove over his past two games, having
taken 38 carries for 186 yards and adding four receptions for
an additional 43 yards and three total touchdowns. We’d love to
see him get a bigger share of the rushing touches, but he’s still
seeing enough to be very fantasy-relevant. Now he faces a Jets
defense that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game
to opposing running backs this season, including 94 yards and
two touchdowns to Raheem Mostert this past week.
It hasn’t always been pretty, but Falcons wide receiver
Drake London has quietly put together a stretch of double-digit
fantasy points in six of his past seven games and he’s done
it while not scoring a single touchdown over that stretch. The
Falcons offense is bad so we wouldn’t expect that he’d
be scoring at a high rate, but this is a pretty unsustainably
bad scoreless streak. This is a very difficult matchup against
an excellent Jets secondary, so there’s no reason to force
London into your lineup if you have comparable options, but he’s
certainly his team’s top pass-catching weapon and isn’t
a must-bench because of that.
Kyle Pitts continues to run routes on at least 60 percent of
the Falcons’ passing downs each week, but it just is not
materializing into any sort of usable fantasy numbers. Pitts has
now been held to fewer than 50 yards receiving in four of his
past five games and he hasn’t scored a touchdown during
that entire stretch. It’s been time to move on for awhile
for fantasy managers, but now is definitely not the time to take
a chance on him.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Garrett Wilson’s Week 11 dud against the Bills looked like
it was nothing to be concerned about when it happened, but he
proved it this past week when he caught seven passes for 44 yards
and a touchdown against the Dolphins. Wilson has now scored between
13 and 18 fantasy points in five of his past six games, while
seeing double-digit targets in every game other than the stinker
against the Bills.
He might not have a huge upside, but Wilson is seeing a strong
enough target share to make him one of the more reliable WR2s
in all of fantasy.
We’ve seen enough from Breece Hall to know that he’s
objectively a talented young running back, but he’s now
rushed for fewer than 30 yards in four of his past five games
and hasn’t scored a rushing touchdown during that entire
stretch. Thankfully, he’s been seeing an increase in his
passing game usage and those receiving numbers have allowed him
to decent enough fantasy numbers even during this bad rushing
stretch.
This is a difficult matchup against a Falcons defense that has
been quite good against opposing running backs this season, but
Hall has shown a 10-point floor along with possessing week-winning
upside to go with it.
With Week 13 being another “bye-pocalypse,” there
are quite a few tight ends out and fantasy managers might be scrambling
to find someone to slot into their lineups. Jets tight end Tyler
Conklin is one who should be avoided, though, in what could very
well be the lowest-scoring game of the week. The veteran has been
held to fewer than 35 receiving yards in four of his past six
games and he hasn’t scored a touchdown all season long.
Don’t be fooled just because you recognize his name from
years past - he’s a player who should remain on waivers.
No one with a heart ever rejoices when a player gets injured,
but managers with Zack Moss on their teams know what the absence
of Jonathan Taylor this week likely means. The last time the Colts
played the Titans this season (Week 5), Moss erupted for 195 total
yards and 2 TDs. And that was with Jonathan Taylor actually playing
in that game. The Titans are generally tough on RBs (14th overall
in points allowed, but better than that minus what they surrendered
to Moss last time out). Still, look for Moss to do damage…and
lots of it.
At first glance, Downs’s role in the passing game last
weekend seems a bid subdued (5 catches, 43 yards), but a deeper
look reveals a whopping 13 targets in that game- the first time
in which he’s reached double figures in that category this
season. I’m not sure that will be duplicated again anytime
soon, but I do know that Downs is now firmly entrenched as Minshew’s
second option behind Pittman. Considering the Titans are in the
bottom fourth of the league in fantasy points yielded to WRs,
you could do much worse at the flex spot this week.
The last time these two teams met, the Colts only threw the ball
26 times total and relied on a heavy dose of the run. Add in the
fact that Minshew hasn’t thrown a TD pass in either of his past
two games and I think there are better options out there at QB
this week… assuming you can obtain one of them.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Again, we look at recent history for this call as Hopkins’s best
game of the season thus far came against the Colts in Week Five
(8 catches on 11 targets, 140 yards receiving). Conventional wisdom
says the Colts will double up on him this time around with few
other threats to consider, but Levis will lock in on him often
in spite of that (35 targets in 5 games), so don’t overthink it.
Even if Treylon Burks can somehow return to the field this week,
Hopkins is a worthy WR2.
I know anyone who drafted Okonkwo will say that he belongs in
the fade pile, but he is coming off his best yardage totals of
the year last week (4 catches, 45 yards) and faces a Colts defense
that gives up 7.5 fantasy points a game to TEs on average (25th
in the league). That means a repeat of last week’s numbers
appears feasible at worst and even likely at best.
Since his breakout game in Week Eight, Levis has seemingly regressed
having only thrown a TD pass in one of his past four starts and
having been held under 200 yards passing in each of his past three
games. It seems that with a little bit of film on him to analyze,
defensive coordinators are making good adjustments. Likewise,
Tyjae Spears hasn’t carried the ball more than 5 times in
a game since the last time these teams met in Week 5. Hard to
count on him for much even in a week in which RB options will
be limited.
Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa was a serious dud this past
week for fantasy managers, but things are looking up for him and
the Miami passing game as they get to face the pass-funnel that
is the Washington defense. The Commanders have already given up
28 passing touchdowns this season - five more than any other team
- and there’s a great chance that Tagovailoa will bring
them to or even over the 30 mark in this contest. He’s a
strong QB1 this week.
We know that Tyreek Hill is a must-start, but teammate Jaylen
Waddle also has to be looked at as a potential WR1 in this matchup.
Waddle is coming off of an eight-catch, 114-yard game against
an excellent Jets defense and he now faces a Commanders defense
that has given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing wide
receivers this season, including three touchdowns to the Cowboys’
wideouts on Thanksgiving Day.
We don’t yet know Achane’s status for this week’s
game after the running back missed Week 12 with a knee injury,
but if he’s on the field then both he and Raheem Mostert
become interesting RB2/Flex options for fantasy. We’ve seen
this duo absolutely terrorize opposing defenses this season and
the Commanders are a top-10 matchups for running backs this season.
They’ve given up at least one touchdown to an opposing RB
in each of their past six games game and a total of eight scores
over that stretch.
If Achane is out, Mostert moves back into borderline RB1 territory
in what could be a shootout with the Commanders.
Fade: N/A
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Washington quarterback Sam Howell had an ugly performance against
the Giants back in Week 7, but otherwise he’s been red hot,
delivering borderline QB1 numbers or even high-end QB1 numbers
in practically every game going all the way back to Week 4. The
Commanders continue to be in an abnormal amount of shootouts and
with an offense as good as Miami’s, it seems reasonable
to think that we could be in for another high-scoring game here
in Week 13. Howell might make lots of mistakes, but he sure makes
fantasy football fun.
With Howell being a great option this week, his top target, Terry
McLaurin, should also be in fantasy lineups. McLaurin has been
down in production over his past three weeks, but he’s continued
to see a very strong target share, having seen at least seven
targets in seven straight games. There’s plenty of reason
to believe that he’s in for a bounce-back fantasy game this
week, as he’ll be against a Miami defense that has struggled
against opposing WR1s, particularly ones with some size, and McLaurin
is the most physical of the three main Washington pass-catching
weapons.
Brian Robinson Jr. has quietly been a borderline elite fantasy
running back this season, but we saw this past week in the Commanders’
blowout loss to the Cowboys that he can sometimes be scripted
out of games. He did show some pass-catching efficiency in Weeks
10 and 11, but he’s just not a naturally gifted pass-catcher
and if the Commanders fall behind on the scoreboard then that
could mean that he just doesn’t see the volume he typically
needs to deliver for fantasy managers.
The Commanders have typically been able to put points on the
board, but against an offense as high-powered as Miami’s,
it’s possible that they do fall behind enough that Robinson
becomes an afterthought. Still, he’s seen at least 14 touches
in four straight games and should be a good bet to reach that
number again this week.
Curtis Samuel continues to be one of the most frustrating players
in all of fantasy football as he turned in a nine-catch, 100-yard
performance on 12 targets in the Commanders’ blowout loss
to the Cowboys on Thanksgiving. That came after two straight absolutely
nothing performances in which he totaled 11 yards receiving and
no touchdowns against the Seahawks and Giants.
Samuel now faces a Miami defense that has struggled against opposing
WR1s, but has mostly done a good job of containing complementary
pass-catchers. Don’t be fooled by his one flashy performance
- Samuel is not a player we want to be relying on at this point
in a fantasy season.
I know Thielen is coming off a brutal stat line in Week 12, but
the Buccaneers rank 29th in fantasy points given up to wide receivers
and Michael Pittman Jr. ate them up last week in a role very similar
to what Thielen is tasked with doing in Carolina. No one knows
for sure how all the coaching changes will shake out in Carolina,
but the team relying on its most veteran WR to move the chains
seems not only plausible, but probable at this time.
Hubbard continues to be the more effective of Carolina’s two
running backs despite the team giving most of the money at the
position to Miles Sanders. Both backs are averaging less than
4 yards per carry and the Buccaneers (8th in points given up to
RBs) are better against the run than the pass, but Hubbard is
also coming off his best game of the season as a receiver (5 catches,
47 yards). With six teams on bye this week, you could do worse
than him as your RB2 or flex.
Yes, six quarterbacks have the week off on bye, but that is the
only reason Young would be in consideration for a start this week
or any other week for that matter. Despite having some mobility
at his disposal, Young has zero rushing touchdowns this season
and less than 15 yards rushing per game. As such, the upside just
isn’t there. As a manager with Allen/Jackson/Fields on bye, look
elsewhere for support.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
One of the more under-the-radar pleasant surprises in fantasy
football this season has been the play of White who despite not
having a highly ranked offensive line, still has over 900 total
yards this season, 5 TDs, and has been targeted 46 times in the
passing game. As for his opponent this week, Carolina ranks 30th
in points surrendered to running backs which makes him a prime
candidate to keep scoring as he has in recent weeks. Start him
with confidence that one of his best games of the season is coming.
In three of the past four games, Otton has caught at least 4
passes for at least 45 yards. That’s not the stuff that
will win you fantasy games, but in a week hampered by half a dozen
byes, you could do much worse than that sort of production at
the TE spot. I think Otton’s Week 13 floor is higher than
most realize, but his ceiling is still somewhat low given how
Evans, White, and Godwin dominate the targets in Tampa.
Maybe it’s because they get behind so often and teams don’t
need to throw on them all game as such, but the Panthers rank
2nd in points allowed to QBs which spells Tampa relying on the
ground game and avoiding mistakes through the air as a path to
victory. As for Godwin, he and Mayfield have nowhere near the
same chemistry as Mayfield and Evans do, particularly in the red
zone. Hard pass.
Losing Deshaun Watson was bad news for the Browns – at least
for everyone not named David Njoku. The Browns veteran tight end
saw just 35 targets in Deshaun Watson’s six starts (and 9 of those
came in a game that Watson left early). Meanwhile, in five outings
without Watson, Njoku has been targeted 43 times and was only
targeted less than 7 times in one game. Even if the Browns do
turn to Joe Flacco (more on that below), the news is good for
Njoku owners – Flacco’s long history of checking down to tight
ends includes having targeting Tyler Conklin 28 times in four
starts for the Jets last year.
If you need any extra encouragement, the Rams have given up the
8th most points per game to opposing tight ends this year. David
Njoku is about as rock solid a TE1 as you can ask for right now,
this side of Travis Kelce and T.J. Hockenson.
Jerome Ford isn’t an exciting back and he has brick hands (7
drops this year). But he’s protected the ball well (just 1 fumble
on 180 career touches) and has ability to break tackles (11 this
year). He’s running behind one of the better run-blocking offensive
lines in the league and while he faces some competition from Kareem
Hunt, his veteran counterpart is no long viewed as any every down
back and Ford’s snap rate continues to grow. He saw a season high
70% snap rate last week, and has played at least 64% of offensive
snaps in three of the last four games. Additionally, Kareem Hunt
missed Wednesday’s practice, and while he was limited for Thursday’s,
it’s possible that he may not play this week, or may see minimal
action.
What goes against Ford this week is a tough Rams rushing defense
that has surrendered just 5 touchdowns to opposing RBs. The Aaron
Donald-led front seven of the Rams has been crippling to opposing
runners at times, and they haven’t surrendered a double-digit
fantasy performance to an RB since Week 9, while allowing just
five such efforts all season. Being on the road also is less than
stellar news for Ford, as a Cleveland team that has had just a
6-10 record in two seasons without Watson active could be seeing
a lot of negative game script.
Ford is a real fence play this week, but if you are short at
running back and/or flex – especially due to all of this
week’s byes – his day may hinge of the Browns attempting
to keep the game close with a ton of running to aid their talented
defense.
Meanwhile, The Rams have also been solid against WR’s, though
not quite as stingy as they’ve been against running backs. They’ve
given up the 12th fewest points per game to the position thus
far this year. The good news for Amari Cooper is that 7 of the
11 double digit fantasy outputs by Rams’ opposing receivers have
come from a team’s WR1 (including a 35-point performance by CeeDee
Lamb).
The bad news is that Cooper has 34 or less receiving yards in
three of the five starts made by the Browns back up QB’s this
year, and no receiving touchdowns sans Deshaun Watson. An experienced
and likely still stronger armed Joe Flacco may help Cooper some,
as will playing on the road in a dome, but - as with Ford – Cooper
is a borderline play.
Update: Joe
Flacco has been named the starting QB for CLE.
Fade: Any Browns QB
The Rams defense has been decent but not remarkable against opposing
QB’s. The Browns just don’t seem to have a quarterback available
who can put a dent in opposing defenses within this offense, though.
While the team went 5-1 with Deshaun Watson, they’ve gone just
2-3 with Dorian
Thompson-Robinson and P.J.
Walker. Watson was hardly exceptional for fantasy purposes,
but he did produce 8 total touchdowns against 4 interceptions,
while his two replacements have combined for just 2 touchdowns
against 9 interceptions, a woeful mark that screams avoid at all
costs! Thompson-Robinson is dealing with a concussion, and it
appears that recently signed Joe
Flacco may get the chance to start rather than Walker.
Now 38 years old, it’s hard to say that Flacco will be much of
an upgrade. Over the last four seasons since leaving Baltimore
– where the Ravens rallied to make a playoff run after he took
a seat for rookie Lamar Jackson - stints with the Broncos and
Jets saw Flacco’s teams win just three of his 17 starts. He tossed
just 20 touchdowns in 20 total games during that time. There are
six teams on bye this week, but even the Jets QB situation may
be more appealing for fantasy football purposes than the Browns,
if you’re absolutely backed against the wall.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Enjoying a virtually impossible to sustain 3.9 yards before contact
this season, Kyren Williams is likely to slow down in production
over the coming weeks. The fact that he has 9 touchdowns in 7
games just furthers this point. Truth is, at 19 touches per game,
he’s still a must start, even with some regression in sight.
This week is no exception.
While the Browns defense has been elite, they are closest to
vulnerable against the run (12th fewest points allowed to running
backs). With Myles Garrett possibly missing this week’s game,
the Browns front seven may be a bit overworked, making them seriously
vulnerable. Expect the home team to try to get the upper hand
in a grind-it-out battle, and that should mean a lot of work for
Kyren Williams.
After another virtually invisible performance by Kupp (3-18-0),
it’s becoming fair to ask whether the repeatedly injuries
have taken a serious toll on his ability to perform. Alarmingly,
Kupp has not topped 4 receptions in his last five starts, and
has an almost impossible to fathom 40% catch rate. This from a
wide receiver who has had at least a 70% catch rate in each of
the previous five seasons.
Playing the Browns doesn’t ease concerns, and I’d probably even
recommend sitting Kupp until he shows he has something in the
tank, if not for the fact that Denzel Ward has yet to practice
this week after missing Week 12. Myles Garrett has also been missing
practice due to a shoulder injury, so this may not be the Browns
defense we’ve seen the rest of the year. How much Matthew Stafford
is even going to throw this week is its own question, making Kupp
absolutely in “proceed with caution” mode, despite his resume.
Meanwhile, Kupp’s stunt double Puka Nacua has been quiet
of late, as well, but more consistent both in production and targets
than Kupp. He’s had at least 7 targets and 3 receptions
in each of the last four weeks, and had a 5-70-1 performance just
two weeks ago. Still, he’s now had four performances with
43 or less receiving yards since Kupp came off the IR in Week
5, and after getting targeted at least 10 times in five of his
team’s first seven games, he’s not been targeted more
than 8 times since.
Nacua might be a better play than Kupp if Ward indeed sits out,
as the thinner Brown’s secondary would presumably shift
their secondary to focus attention on Kupp, but that is no guarantee,
considering that Nacua has looked more alive than Kupp over the
last month. This makes Nacua a somewhat high-risk play, as well.
Tyler Higbee’s quiet season finally had a splash moment
last week against the Cardinals, where he turned out a 5-29-2
line. Those 2 touchdowns were his first two of the season. It
was Higbee’s first double-digit fantasy performance of the
season, and just his third scoring at least 8 points. He’ll
hope to maintain fantasy relevancy against the Browns this week.
In a Week 4 match up against Mark Andrews, the Browns defense
gave up 80 yards and 2 touchdowns to the star tight end. For the
entire rest of the season, they’ve given up just 147 yards and
1 touchdown to the position. More recently, Mark Andrews had just
2 catches for 44 yards against the Browns and two weeks ago –
the week before a 100+ yard performance – Pat Freiermuth had just
1 reception for 7 yards against Cleveland.
All told, the Browns have given up the fewest points per game
to tight ends in 2023 and Tyler Higbee’s Week 12 performance
is likely anomalous. It’s a good fit for a sit.
San Francisco’s top wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk has scored
a touchdown and/or gone over 100 receiving yards in four straight
games and now has the opportunity to face the NFL’s worst-performing
secondary in Philadelphia. The Eagles have already conceded 17
receiving touchdowns to opposing wideouts and they’ve given
up five 100-yard days. It’d be nice to see Aiyuk have more
passes come his way than he has, but he’s been extraordinarily
efficient with the opportunities he’s had and should be
a good bet to finish with a strong performance in this game.
49ers’ quarterback Brock Purdy does have a great matchup
this week against a terrible Eagles defense, but fantasy managers
have to be a bit concerned that their QBs has been held to exactly
one touchdown in four of his past six games. He’s still
been fine for fantasy in most games because he’s throwing
for a good number of yards, but Christian McCaffrey remains the
team’s go-to player near the goal line and they’ve
been extremely effective with that strategy. Purdy isn’t
a must-start, but he’s a fairly solid mid-to-low-end QB1
this week.
While Brandon Aiyuk seems to be delivering in almost every game,
the other top pass catchers in the San Francisco offense, Deebo
Samuel and George Kittle, seem to be having a tough time both
delivering in the same game. They both have excellent matchups
against an extremely weak Philadelphia defense, though, and with
this potentially being a shootout, fantasy managers will probably
want to take their chances on this pass-catching duo.
Fade: N/A
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
We’ve seen a trend over the past few years that when Dallas
Goedert is out, DeVonta Smith sees a significant uptick in usage
and fantasy production. We’ve seen that play out over the
past two weeks with the tight end being out and Smith delivering
13 receptions for 215 yards and a touchdown over that stretch.
A.J. Brown is certainly still the top pass-catching weapon in
the Eagles’ offense, and the 49ers’ defense isn’t
a great matchup, but Smith is back into solid WR2 territory for
fantasy purposes.
D’Andre Swift was a stud RB1 to start the season, but things
have cooled off for the former Detroit Lion over the past five
weeks. Swift has scored just two touchdowns during that stretch
and he hasn’t exceeded 80 rushing yards in any of the games,
while also catching just 11 passes. He’s still been a fine
RB2 most weeks, but his high-end production just hasn’t
been there as the Eagles have been relying much more on their
passing game along with Jalen Hurts scoring a ridiculous six rushing
touchdowns over this five-game stretch.
Now Swift faces a 49ers defense that has given up the third-fewest
fantasy points per game to opposing running backs this season,
including the second-fewest total rushing yards. This isn’t
a great matchup, but Swift is still a solid RB2.
For all their firepower, the Chiefs are an offense, at least
in fantasy terms, built around the trio of Mahomes, Kelce, and
Pacheco. Everyone else is interchangeable. That may be changing,
though, with the emergence of Rice. The rookie broke the century
mark for the first time in his young career last Sunday, turning
eight receptions into 107 yards and a touchdown. He’s comfortably
second behind Kelce in receiving for the season and is tied with
the tight end with five touchdowns. Pencil in Rice as a high-end
WR3.
Thus far, things have not worked out for the young duo of Skyy
Moore and Kadarius Toney, and it’s Watson that ranks third on
the club in receiving. He’s been targeted 19 times over the last
three games, and he has scored in back-to-back outings. The yardage
numbers are suspect, but Watson absolutely looks like the most
likely candidate to deliver as a flex candidate. In a week when
six teams are on bye, owners may need to dig a little deeper,
and that’s where Watson might offer some hope.
Fade: N/A
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
As of now, both Jones and AJ Dillon (groin) are banged up, and
neither one of them practiced on Wednesday. It seems like Dillon,
who returned on Thursday, is a safe bet to play, which makes Jones
the wild card. Arguably the team’s most explosive playmaker, Jones
has appeared in just seven games this year due to injury, and
he missed the Thanksgiving win over Detroit. The growth of Jordan
Love gives Jones more upside if he returns for Week 13, as the
young quarterback has been more effective in checking the ball
down to his backs -- Dillon has 70 yards receiving over the last
two games. If Jones is up, he’d be an RB3 with upside. If not,
Dillon could assume that mantle.
During his three years behind Aaron Rodgers, Love made one start.
It came against the Chiefs and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo,
who blitzed the Utah State product at every opportunity. The results:
190 yards passing, 1 TD, and 1 INT. Clearly, much has changed
since then, and Love has thrown for 1,107 yards, 8 TDs, and 2
INTs over his last four games. Even if you put little stock in
the 2021 meeting, the Chiefs are still arguably the toughest defense
Love has faced. You can still slot Love in as a fringe QB1 option,
but there’s downside here.
Watson enjoyed his best game of the season on Thanksgiving, hauling
in five passes for 94 yards and a touchdown. Fantasy owners that’ve
been dying for the speedy wideout to show signs of life might
be desperate to get him into their lineups. That may not be the
best decision. Kansas City is fourth in the NFL in pass defense
(176.6 yards/game), and Dontayvion Wicks, who led the Packers
in receiving in Week 11, is set to return after missing last Thursday
with a concussion. There’s still upside in Watson, as there is
every week due to his size/speed combo, but he shouldn’t be viewed
as anything more than a dicey No. 3 receiver for Week 13.
It’s hard to trust anyone in this offense right now as the impact
of Joe Burrow’s presence has become all too apparent. Even Chase
isn’t a bona fide no brainer at present, although on a week in
which so many players are on bye, he certainly is. The fact that
Jake Browning completed over 73% of his passes last week is at
least slightly encouraging, I suppose, but he only attempted 26
passes in the game- something that is likely to be repeated on
Monday night. I would avoid all players connected the passing
game sans Chase (more below).
Few RBs get the bulk of the carries the way Mixon does in Cincinnati,
but in terms of snap share, he only got 65% last week, which was
less than 16 other running backs. In theory, Burrow’s absence
should lead to more dependence on the ground attack and thus better
numbers for Mixon, but in reality, it means a stacked box that
limits Mixon’s ability to be effective. His YPC and red
zone opportunities will diminish with Browning under center, which
is why he’s on the fence even as a primary ball carrier.
With Chase and Mixon accounting for over 55% of the receiving
yards in Week 12, there’s just not much meat left on the bone
for other pass catchers to feast on. Irv
Smith has been disappointing this season and unless Tee
Higgins returns this week, no other Bengal has been able to
muster up more than 56 yards in a game sans Tyler
Boyd in Week 10 in a shoot-out with the Texans. Some players
are better left un-played after Elvis has left the building.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Evan Engram has now gone eleven games this season without a touchdown.
Last week, they were almost trying to force feed him the ball
in the red zone to try to break that cycle. This week, the cycle
will likely be broken given that only the Broncos give up more
fantasy points to TEs than the Bengals do. Engram has been targeted
7 times or more in 9 of those 11 games this season. A break-out
game simply has to be coming… and soon.
Kirk is a bona fide WR2 this week just based on the number of
teams taking the week off, but there’s no denying that Calvin
Ridley has become Trevor Lawrence’s preferred target in
the red zone and on deeper throws. Kirk’s floor continues
to be quite high for a WR as he is on pace for nearly 1,200 receiving
yards this season and rarely has a “quiet” game. That
said, he only has three touchdowns receiving all year in a high-powered
offense and none since Week 7. He’s solid. He’s just
not spectacular.
Fade: None
Trevor Lawrence has been on a tear the past two weeks, throwing
for 626 yards and accounting for 6 TDs. It seems he’s finally
found the stride most believed he’d find from the opening
bell of the season on. Just as there are no favorites to be found
on the Bengals’ sideline, I don’t see any Jaguar fades.
There are six worthy starters factoring in kicker Brandon McManus.
