I do realize how dismal Bryce Young was last week, completing
only 14 passes for 54 yards for an ugly QBR of 18.3. I also know
that the Buccaneers defense has been almost non-existent the past
month, leading to the overall collapse of the team and that Theo
Wease Jr. and Greg Dulcich scored touchdowns on them last week
with Quinn Ewers at quarterback. Conventional wisdom says that
Young is always a risky play, but this Bucs defense will be missing
key pieces (CB Jamel Dean, OLB Anthony Nelson) and is vulnerable
right now.
Both Dowdle and McMillan seem to have hit a wall of late with
McMillan falling flat, fantasy-wise, having only 2 receptions
or less in four of his past five games. That would normally make
him a fade, but again, the Bucs defense offers some hope for resurgence
as is also the case for Coker. As for Rico Dowdle, it’s
been nine weeks since he gained 60 yards or more, but the Panthers
will want to limit turnovers in this game and could try to lean
on him, both as a rusher and check-down passing game option.
Hubbard was relegated to four carries in Week 17 and continues
to average right at 2 targets a game as a receiver out of the
backfield. There’s just not much upside left for him in
what has been a disappointing campaign from a fantasy standpoint.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
The Buccaneers hardly deserve a sniff of the playoffs at this
point after some horrific losses in November and December, including
one to a Miami team last week with little to play for beyond pride.
Still, here they are with a shot at a home playoff game next week
which means they’ll lean on veterans Evans and Godwin to get them
there. Both scored TDs last week and should be started with confidence.
Mayfield put up his best numbers last weekend (33/44, 346-2-2,
3-16-0) in quite some time, but appears to be playing with some
physical limitations. I like him in this spot, but not enough
to take him off the fence. Irving’s production last week
(9-19, 5-14) didn’t show much burst. It’s been a strange
season for him in many ways and I don’t trust him here,
even though volume alone would make him a prudent play.
Not that I would start Sean Tucker at this point in time, but
I would probably start him over Rachaad White, who appears to
have little value right now. As for Egbuka, it’s disheartening
to put him on the fade line, but with Evans and Godwin healthy
and Jalen McMillan putting up a great stat line last week (7-114-0),
there’s just not much room left for the rookie to this week.
With the No. 1 seed in the NFC at stake, there aren’t many games
with more playoff significance than Seahawks/49ers — so expect
anyone who can go to be out there for four quarters. For Seattle,
that means Sam Darnold will have his full complement of weapons
against a San Francisco defense that has allowed two or more passing
touchdowns to every fantasy-relevant quarterback they’ve faced
over the past three months (plus Cam Ward). They’ve now surrendered
29 touchdown passes on the season — and Darnold’s value has largely
come from his 25 passing scores.
Turnovers are the concern (14 interceptions), but the 49ers haven’t
been very opportunistic in that department with just six picks.
The last time Darnold saw San Francisco — back in Week 1
— he wasn’t intercepted, but he also didn’t
do much (150 yards, no touchdowns). A lot has changed since then.
He’s far more in sync with this offense now, and the 49ers
have become more vulnerable to quarterbacks down the stretch.
That combination puts Darnold in the back-end QB1 mix in what
could turn into a shootout.
The matchup also looks appealing for AJ Barner, who scored for
the second straight week and now has seven touchdowns on the year.
Barner has leaned heavily on scores, but he’s also flashed
legit TE1 usage at times (games with 10 and 7 receptions), and
San Francisco has allowed 93 catches and 10 touchdowns to tight
ends. Sitting 18th among active tight ends in FPts/G, Barner lands
on the fringe TE1 line this week — especially with several
teams resting starters.
Seattle’s backfield produced its second straight 100-yard rusher
last week, with Zach Charbonnet going for 110 yards against Carolina.
That result was more expected than the week prior versus the Rams,
but it came on a day when Kenneth Walker was mostly quiet while
Charbonnet piled up 122 total yards and two scores. The workload
continues to be split right down the middle, and both backs have
topped 10 fantasy points in the same week only twice all season.
Charbonnet’s 25-point outburst pushed him into a virtual
tie with Walker in FPts/G (10.1), sitting in the mid-RB3 range.
The problem is the floor: both backs have been held under 5 FPts
four different times. Even with each hitting season highs recently,
the committee keeps them in flex territory rather than RB2.
Rashid Shaheed, meanwhile, has essentially vanished as a receiver
the last two weeks, with more rushing yards (31) than receiving
yards (8). He does get a chance to bounce back here. Earlier this
year, he posted 4-54-1 against the 49ers while with the Saints,
and San Francisco has shown cracks against downfield threats,
including Alec
Pierce’s 4-84-1 last week.
In a game where Darnold may be forced to throw more than usual,
Shaheed carries classic boom/bust appeal as a deep shot play.
Fade: N/A
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
After back-to-back five-touchdown games, Brock Purdy now sits
second among quarterbacks in FPts/G (24.0), and he’s averaged
33.3 over his last three. Whatever lingering concerns there were
about health appear resolved. Seattle has made life difficult
on plenty of quarterbacks this season, but Matthew Stafford still
hung 30.9 FPts on them in a similar must-win spot two weeks ago.
If there’s a case against Purdy, it’s that he’ll
likely face Seattle’s 44-sack pass rush without Trent Williams
after Williams was injured trying to tackle the defender on Purdy’s
pick-six last week. Historically, Purdy has struggled when Williams
is out — but he still produced after the injury. With the
way he’s playing, it’s tough to push him out of QB1
range, even acknowledging some risk.
Jauan Jennings posted his seventh game with 11+ fantasy points
over his last eight outings and now has a career-high nine touchdowns,
ranking 31st in FPts/G (10.0).
This is a rough matchup, though. Outside of Puka Nacua, Seattle
has shut down opposing wide receivers over the last month, including
holding Tetairoa McMillan to 1.0 FPts last week. Purdy also doesn’t
have to funnel targets to Jennings with McCaffrey and possibly
George Kittle soaking up volume underneath — especially against
a defense that has given up 90 receptions to running backs and
100 to tight ends.
Jennings remains a boom/bust flex play, but his recent hot streak
is colliding with a difficult secondary.
Ricky Pearsall is coming off back-to-back solid games (5-85-0
on eight targets most recently), but he’s been in and out
of lineups all year with minor injuries and dings. He’s
best viewed as a volatile WR4 — there’s upside, but
also a floor that can bottom out quickly in this matchup.
When the Packers and Vikings met up back in Week 12, Wilson filled
in for an injured Josh Jacobs and posted 125 combined yards and
a pair of touchdowns. With Green Bay locked into the seventh seed,
expect Jacobs to skip the rematch as well. That should mean a
healthy dose of Wilson, though odds are the team with mix in more
of Chris Brooks as well. Without much threat from the passing
game, however, how much can you really expect from Wilson this
Sunday? As your flex, he’s worth the gamble, though the RB2 status
he might’ve carried under different circumstances is a major stretch.
Fade: Everyone Else
Following their loss last Saturday, the Packers have nothing
to play for this week, and after enduring a number of significant
injuries recently, all signs point toward Green Bay holding out
many of their top guys. That includes Jordan Love (concussion)
and Malik Willis (shoulder), meaning we’ll see Clayton Tune
make the start and perhaps recently signed Desmond Ridder as the
backup. While you can’t sit everybody, players like Christian
Watson and Jayden Reed could be held out as well. If the Lions,
at full strength and with everything on the line, couldn’t
move the ball on Minnesota’s defense, how will Tune and
company do it? Other than Wilson, it’s hard to advocate
for anyone on the Packers being in your Week 18 lineup.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Update: Aaron
Jones has been ruled Out. J.J. McCarthy will start at QB.
Whether J.J. McCarthy (hand) progresses enough from a hairline
fracture in his hand to play this Sunday or it’s Max Brosmer once
again, the top priority will be getting Jefferson to the 1,000-yard
mark for the season. To do that, Jefferson needs 53 yards. He
had 48 in his previous meeting with the Packers, and Green Bay’s
cornerback room has been decimated by injury in the weeks since,
leading the team to claiming Travon Diggs on waivers to provide
some depth. As noted above, the Packers are likely to hold out
or at least limit key personnel, and that includes the defensive
side of the ball. Expect the Vikings to find a way to get Jefferson
the ball this week, making him a possible WR3.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: Everyone Else
This more or less assumes that the team ultimately decides risking
McCarthy and/or Jordan Mason (ankle) in a meaningless affair makes
little sense, and we see Brosmer and Ty Chandler in the QB1 and
RB2 roles, respectively. Brosmer has been dismal in two starts,
and Chandler is little more than a warm body. Jordan Addison had
a 65-yard TD run versus the Lions, but as a receiver over his
last six games, he’s averaged 32 yards per game without
a score. Even if McCarthy plays, he had zero success versus Green
Bay last time out (87 yards, 0 TDs, 2 INTs), and the Vikings would
be unlikely to ask too much of him given his season-long issues
staying healthy.
Tony Pollard has over 1,200 yards from scrimmage this season,
including 1,000+ as a rusher. That’s impressive given he’s
playing with a rookie QB and most teams see him as their first
target to defend in this offense. The Jags are stingy against
the run as everyone knows, so start him understanding that the
numbers aren’t in his favor even as he continues to run
the ball well. Okonkwo has been stellar each of the past two weeks,
scoring double digits even in non-PPR leagues. Again, tough match-up
here, but he’s riding some good rhythm heading into the
final week of the season.
Ward regressed a bit last week after putting up several solid
performances in a row and he’ll be up against a defense
with plenty of motivation. Tyjae Spears has been a non-factor
in every game this season from a fantasy standpoint sans two.
He’s best left on the bench along with the host of Tennessee’s
young receiving corps against a red-hot Jags team.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Washington has emerged as Trevor Lawrence’s favorite target
over the past two weeks (10 targets and 115+ yards in each game)
and should be started this week in all formats as a result. Strange
averaged 18 yards a catch last week and appears fully healthy
again after a mid-season injury. Both are close to the “No-Brainer”
category against a defense that rarely stops anyone outside of
the depleted Chiefs a couple of weeks ago.
Meyers has quickly become a trusted target in Jacksonville with
respect to short and intermediate routes. He has at least 7 targets
in each of his last four games. In PPR, he holds more value than
in non-PPR and I would not hesitate to start him in the former
format. In the latter, he comes with more risk.
This is a fitting way to conclude this preview as Thomas’
year leaves a lot of question marks for 2026. It would be one
thing if his regression had coincided with general offensive decline
this season, but the Jags offense has sprung to life. Thomas is
just not a part of that life and cannot be trusted this week if
you’re still needing a difference maker.
With Riley Leonard under center and the Texans defense waiting
to gobble him up, one wonders If anyone belongs outside the fade
territory for the Colts in this one, but Warren is going to get
plenty of check-down opportunities and Pierce’s role for the Colts
is similar to Quentin Johnston’s for the Chargers who just had
some success last week against Houston. Pierce has also been doing
a good job separating from defensive backs and looks like an ascending
WR for future years.
The Texans are likely going to feast on Leonard’s lack of experience
and his stat line could look ugly in this one. Pittman, meanwhile,
has 32 yards receiving or less in six of his last seven games.
Without Daniel Jones under center, he simply does not hold much
value.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Update: Nico
Collins is expected to be a healthy scratch.
All of the Texan offensive skill players are a risk if Jacksonville
is blowing out Tennessee at halftime of their game, as the Texans
could begin to pull players to avoid injuries. Marks and Higgins
are young players who need to stay in rhythm heading into the
playoffs, so they’re worthy of starting consideration, but
if you do start one of them, understand the risks.
Houston will monitor the Jacksonville-Tennessee game closely
and won’t hesitate to pull Stroud by the third quarter if
deemed prudent. Even if he plays the whole game, the plan will
be designed to protect Stroud’s health, so deep downfield
throws that put him in harm’s way probably aren’t
on the menu.
The Cowboys' season has essentially been over for a few weeks
now, but that hasn't stopped their leader from continuing to light
up the stat sheet. Dak Prescott has now finished as a top-six
fantasy QB in six of his past seven games and has remained an
elite fantasy asset throughout the majority of the season with
very few hiccups. This Week 18 matchup with the Giants looks like
an opportunity to close out the 2025 season in strong fashion
and begin creating momentum for 2026.
The Giants rank 25th in the league in points conceded to opposing
QBs this season, and Prescott himself threw for 361 yards and
two touchdowns, along with a single interception, when these teams
matched up back in Week 2.
Update: Malik
Davis and Javonte Williams have been ruled Out.
With Javonte Williams likely out, the Cowboys will need to look
down the depth chart this week to find someone to shoulder the
brunt of the carries from their backfield here in Week 18. That
will likely end up being a mixture of a few players, but all signs
point toward Malik Davis being the primary ball carrier for the
Cowboys as they face the Giants this week. He carried the ball
20 times this past week after taking over for Williams following
his injury, and reached 102 yards on the ground with those opportunities.
Davis lacks elite ability, but the opportunity alone could be
enough to make him a strong fantasy contributor against this porous
Giants defense. Only three teams have conceded more fantasy points
to opposing running backs than the Giants have this season.
Jake Ferguson's early-season heroics will allow him to finish
as a top-12 player at the position this season, but that stat
alone doesn't tell the full story. Not only has Ferguson fallen
off from those first few weeks of the season, but he's become
a player who fantasy managers regret putting into their lineup
just about every week.
The Giants have a terrible defense, but if there's one place
that they've been at least moderately competent, it's been defending
against opposing tight ends. They've conceded the ninth-fewest
fantasy points against the position this season. Ferguson does
still have the ability to do some damage, but at this point, it's
hard to believe that he's anything more than one of the many borderline
rosterable, touchdown-dependent tight ends in fantasyland.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
It'd be tough to classify the Giants' 2025 season as anything
more than a disappointment, but if there's one thing that they
can have some excitement about, it's been the play of their young
playmakers, particularly quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Fantasy managers have been introduced to Dart as being a competent
passer, but more importantly, a borderline elite rusher. Dart
has been fearless when carrying the ball, which often leads to
him taking some big hits and critiques in the media, but it's
also meant some great fantasy days. Dart has now managed to rush
for nine touchdowns on the season despite taking the majority
of snaps in just 11 games.
Dart and the Giants now have the pleasure of closing out their
season against one of the only defenses worse than their own—the
Dallas Cowboys. Dallas has conceded more fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks than any other team this season, and by a large margin.
This is as good as it gets for matchups, so fire up Dart as a
strong QB1 option.
The Giants' backfield has been a frustrating split since Cam
Skattebo's injury, and it looks unlikely to change in the final
week of the season. Tracy and Singletary should both see plenty
of opportunities, particularly if the Giants stay close to the
Cowboys on the scoreboard, and that makes both of them an option
as an RB2/Flex.
Tracy has been the better of the two backs and probably has the
stronger case to be considered an RB2, but he's not dominating
the "money" touches in the passing game or near the
goal line. For example, this past week, Tracy out-touched Singletary
15 times to 12 in the Giants' blowout win over the Raiders, but
it was Singletary who caught four passes to Singletary's one,
and Singletary scored the only touchdown between the two.
Still, this is a great matchup against a pathetic Dallas defense
that has conceded the eighth-most fantasy points to opposing running
backs throughout the regular season. Tracy and Singletary are
both viable options, but understand that there's some risk here
as we don't know what the opportunity share will look like, and
there's even a chance that a Dallas blowout win could lead to
both backs finishing with disappointing touch totals.
Much like their Week 18 opponents, the Cowboys' defense has been
bad all season, but the one position they've done a fairly decent
job of defending against has been tight end. Dallas has—shockingly—been
a top-10 unit in that category, and they now face Theo Johnson,
whose up-and-down season doesn't inspire a ton of confidence.
Johnson has shown signs of breaking out, but he's never quite
reached that threshold, and it seems likely that the rise to fantasy
stardom will have to wait until next season. He’s missed
practice this week with an illness so follow his status this weekend.
With Quinshon Judkins (leg) lost for the season, Sampson worked
as the nominal RB1 against the Steelers, carrying the ball 11
times for 27 yards -- for comparison, Raheim Sanders had eight
carries, and Trayveon Williams had two. As it happens, this will
be the second time that Sampson will work as the lead back against
Cincinnati, having served in that capacity in Week 1 when Judkins
had yet to sign his rookie contract. On that day, Sampson turned
20 touches into 93 yards, which is respectable production. It
is worth noting, however, that 64 of those yards came as a receiver
when Joe Flacco was still the starting quarterback. A week ago,
Sampson had three catches for zero yards with Shedeur Sanders.
The Bengals have been among the NFL’s worst defenses all season,
though, providing Sampson with enough upside to serve as a flex.
Ever since his “breakout” performance against the
Titans, when he racked up 364 yards passing and four total touchdowns,
Sanders has averaged 173 yards passing per game with two TDs and
seven interceptions. While he’s done a bit more running,
posting 93 yards on the ground during that span, it’s been
a tough stretch for the rookie. The smart money says you’ll
see more of the same in Week 18 as five of his six starts this
year have been varying degrees of bad. Then again, the Bengals
have been bad for most of 2025, ranking 27th versus the pass and
dead last in touchdowns allowed. With a number of quarterbacks
potentially resting this Sunday, Sanders at least offers tangible
upside along with significant risk.
Fade: N/A
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
You know the story with the Bengals offense. Their top four players
should be locked into your lineup each week, and nobody else has
really put themselves on the map. Mike Gesicki and Andrei Iosivas
have flashed here and there, but neither is playable when Chase
and Higgins are both healthy and available. The best of the rest
is probably Perine, who has at least had decent production in
five games since Burrow returned: he’s averaging 38 yards per
game with two total TDs. If you’re desperate for someone to fill
a flex spot, Perine has a bit of upside.
Much like Olave (out for Week 18), who is a top-ten fantasy WR
at this point in the year, Johnson has enjoyed a solid season
as the Saints’ second option in the passing game. He doesn’t
score many TDs (3 in 2025), but will almost certainly eclipse
the 100-target mark for the season in this game. He’s a
bona fide TE1 in a match-up that isn’t ideal (Falcons are
fourth best team in limiting points to opposing TEs), but offers
upside based on likely game script.
Given what they had to work with this season in terms of personnel,
I would count this season for New Orleans as a huge success. Shough
has been serviceable as a fantasy QB for quite some time now,
and he’s thrown for over 300 yards now in back-to-back games.
The Falcons pass rush is legit and could force him out of the
pocket regularly, but he’s shown he can score fantasy points
on the ground, too, so he’s a really good Superflex option
here. Estime was the lead runner last week vs. Tennessee by a
wide margin (14-94-0) and the Saints want to see what they have
in him for future purposes.
Back to Estime, there just isn’t much room for Hull to
be productive with Estime taking up 14 of the 16 RB carries last
week. He should not be in consideration for any sort of fantasy
role this week.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
As a flex player, you could do worse than Allgeier and in a game
in which Atlanta doesn’t want to see the likes of Bijan Robinson,
Drake London, or Kyle Pitts get injured, Allgeier could get plenty
of play here. I think he’ll return top-20 value at the position
with a chance for more against a Saints team missing their best
offensive weapon.
Kyle Pitts giveth. Kyle Pitts taketh away. Pitts won many a fantasy
manager a playoff game in Week 15, and performed well again in
Week 16, but fell flat in Week 17 with Kirk Cousins seemingly
only looking to either hand the ball to Bijan Robinson or target
him in the passing game. Therefore, it’s difficult to know what
to think of Pitts in this game, but isn’t that the story of his
whole career? He’s a proper start here given his upside, but his
floor is always lower than one would think.
It seems London (4-31-0 last two games) is out there as a decoy
at this point in time, as he’s clearly not 100%. Mooney,
meanwhile, has produced more than 35 yards receiving in a game
only twice with 1 TD on the season. Both receivers belong on the
bench here for different reasons.
It's been a tumultuous season for the Dolphins, but the one player
who seems locked into a high-value role heading into 2026 is De'Von
Achane. Achane has consistently delivered both volume and efficiency,
making him one of the top backs in fantasy, and he'll look to
close out a strong 2025 campaign with a road divisional game against
the AFC East champion Patriots.
New England has been excellent at defending against opposing
running backs throughout the season, as they've conceded the sixth-fewest
fantasy points to them, but Achane is one of the few who have
had success against this unit in 2025. The Dolphins' speedster
was held in check on the ground as he carried the ball 11 times
for just 30 yards in that Week 2 matchup, but the team made an
effort to get him the ball, and he delivered in the passing game,
catching eight of a whopping 10 targets that came his way, resulting
in 92 more yards and a touchdown.
This is a tough matchup against a Patriots team that still has
plenty of play for, but Achane is just too good to consider benching
him in this or any matchup.
On the Fence: N/A
Update: WR Jaylen
Wadde is not expected to play. TE Darren Waller has been
ruled Out.
The Dolphins may have earned a surprising victory over the Buccaneers
in Week 17, but that doesn't mean that we should begin trusting
quarterback Quinn Ewers or his pass-catching weapons. While he
hasn't looked bad, Ewers has seen way too little volume, and we
need that to have any sort of confidence in players like Jaylen
Waddle or Darren Waller.
Waddle saw zero targets prior to being knocked out of the game
in the second quarter against the Bucs. Waller didn't fare much
better as he caught just one pass for zero yards on three targets.
Miami just isn't an explosive enough offense for small target-earners
to really provide difference-making fantasy performances, and
for that reason managers should be looking elsewhere.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Pending legal situation aside, Stefon Diggs has been one of the
top fantasy wide receivers over the past two weeks, and we should
expect that he'll continue to be the Patriots' top pass-catching
weapon here in Week 18. The Patriots still have quite a bit to
play for so there should be no risk of them pulling their starters
unless they're far enough on the scoreboard that the game is completely
over, so Diggs is a safe bet for volume mixed with a fairly high
ceiling.
Tight end Hunter Henry also been on a tear as of late, having
scored touchdowns in back-to-back weeks, and he's finished as
a top-15 TE in five of his past six games. That type of consistency
is rare to find among non-locked-in elite fantasy tight ends,
so managers should continue to ride the hot hand with him this
week and hope that he makes it three straight games with a touchdown.
TreVeyon Henderson seems to still be the lead back in New England,
but it's tough to deny that Rhamondre Stevenson has now been the
more productive of the two in back-to-back games.
Stevenson dominated the touches when Henderson was knocked out
of the Week 16 contest, and it looked possible that he'd be in
line to get the lion's share of the backfield touches in Week
17 before Henderson was ruled as active. From there, Henderson
saw 19 carries, which he took for 82 yards—not a bad showing—but
Stevenson was far more effective on less work, as he exceeded
the 100-total-yard mark on fewer touches while also scoring a
touchdown both as a runner and as a pass-catcher.
It's not as if Henderson has been ineffective, so we shouldn't
expect that he's going to lose the "starting" role here,
but if Stevenson has carved out a role as the team's primary pass-catching
back and potentially even their goal-line back, then this situation
is quite murky heading into Week 18. Consider Henderson as a mid-level
RB2, whereas Stevenson is more of a low-end RB2, but it would
not be surprising to see either back finish with a big game against
this Dolphins defense that has conceded the 12th-most fantasy
points to opposing running backs this season.
Quarterback Jacoby Brissett cooled off again in what should have
been a favorable matchup against Cincinnati, needing two late
garbage-time scores to salvage his fantasy day. He completed under
60% of his passes for the second straight week, added nothing
as a runner, and finished with 212 yards.
It has still been a strong step-forward season overall, but the
passing attack hasn’t looked quite right — and it’s reasonable
to wonder whether pushing Marvin Harrison Jr. back onto the field
at less than 100% contributed at times. Harrison will be inactive
for the regular-season finale.
Brissett could get a boost if the Rams rest starters at some
point. That scenario becomes more realistic if Los Angeles winds
up locked into the No. 6 seed before kickoff. In a thin Week 18
at quarterback, that potential upside keeps Brissett hovering
near the back end of QB1 territory.
Meanwhile, the Rams’ previously dominant run defense has
sprung leaks the last two weeks, allowing more than 300 rushing
yards and three touchdowns combined to Seattle and Atlanta. But
journeyman Michael Carter is not Kenneth Walker or Bijan Robinson,
and Arizona’s blocking isn’t on the same level as
those units.
Carter also failed to take advantage of a favorable matchup last
week, posting just 29 rushing yards and 5.3 fantasy points against
Cincinnati. Four weeks ago, the Cardinals’ backfield was bottled
up entirely by the Rams, as Carter and Bam Knight combined for
only 9 fantasy points. There’s at least some chance L.A.’s run
defense is more vulnerable now, and Carter has produced double-digit
fantasy totals in two starts — but the floor remains extremely
low, especially if this becomes a meaningful game for the Rams.
He’s a volatile flex option.
Fade: N/A
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Under normal circumstances, Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua would
be automatic starts against Arizona. Week 18, though, is a different
animal. Sean McVay has indicated starters will be on the field
to begin the game — but that may simply be a brief tune-up,
especially after Stafford’s three-interception outing in
Week 17. If the Rams are locked into playoff position, we could
be looking at only a scripted series or two. That would destroy
their ceilings while introducing massive risk.
Davante Adams remains limited in practice and his status is still
uncertain. He leads the league in touchdowns (14) despite missing
the last two games, but even if active, there’s a very real chance
he plays a reduced snap count. The same uncertainty applies to
Kyren Williams, who would otherwise project for heavy usage with
Blake Corum missing time — but could also be pulled early if seeding
is set.
Fantasy managers will need to closely monitor whether Los Angeles
has anything to play for. If playoff seeding is locked in before
kickoff, the odds of early exits for key starters rise considerably.
Even if there is something at stake, there’s still at least
some risk McVay shortens workloads once the situation feels secure.
While you cannot blame everything that went wrong for the Lions
on Christmas Day on Goff, the veteran quarterback unquestionably
played his worst game of the year. He passed for 197 yards, 1
TD, and 2 INTs, and he also lost three fumbles in a loss to the
Vikings that ended Detroit’s playoff hopes. That means the
Lions will be playing for pride for the first time since the finale
of the 2022 campaign when they denied the Packers the NFC’s
final playoff spot. This time, a win could cost the Bears the
No. 2 seed. When these teams met back in Week 2, Goff threw for
256 yards and four touchdowns in a blowout win. The potential
exists for similar numbers in Week 18. Chicago got torched by
Brock Purdy on Sunday night, and a week earlier they had no answers
when Malik Willis took over midgame for Jordan Love. Despite the
lack of stakes, Goff is a legit QB1.
It’s been a disappointing season for Montgomery, who enters
the season finale with 674 yards on the year -- he would need
102 yards in Chicago this Sunday to avoid setting a new career
low -- and eight touchdowns, well below the 12.5 he averaged during
his first two seasons with Detroit. Despite his struggles, there’s
an opportunity to go out on a high note against a Bears defense
that has allowed 192 and 200 yards, respectively, on the ground
the last two weeks. As a flex, Montgomery offers decent upside.
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Heading into Week 18, Williams finds himself 270 yards short
of becoming the first quarterback in Bears history to reach the
4,000-yard passing mark in a season. He knows it. The team knows
it. Ben Johnson knows it. Look for them to chase that mark against
a Lions defense that has seen its secondary decimated by injury
this year. Granted, I wouldn’t expect the pursuit to come
at the expense of winning the game, but all things being equal
they’ll try to get Williams to that threshold. As such,
the USC product carries midrange QB1 potential.
It took a while to hit his stride, but the rookie tight end is
playing his best ball, coming off a 6-94-1 performance in San
Francisco. In four December games, Loveland averaged 4.25 receptions,
54 yards, and 0.5 TDs per game. He was shut out the first time
he faced the Lions back in Week 2, but these are very different
teams now, and as noted, the Bears are likely to focus on trying
to get Williams to reach the 4,000-yard mark. With Rome Odunze
(foot) and Burden (quad) both banged up, Loveland could be one
of the primary beneficiaries of that quest this Sunday.
Odunze (foot) has missed the last four games with a stress fracture
in his foot, and he has yet to practice this week, throwing his
availability for Week 18 into doubt. Even if he does play, however,
he should be avoided. That’s because any return this Sunday
would almost certainly be a snap count with the team looking to
shake off the rust. There’s just no way they’d risk
reinjury ahead of the postseason in a game with modest stakes.
The musical chairs in the Washington running back room has been
frustrating for fantasy managers all season long, and unfortunately,
it still doesn't seem like we have much clarity heading into the
final game of the regular season.
Veteran Chris Rodriguez Jr. had been leading the way for the
Commanders and doing a fairly decent job, but he missed this past
week's contest with an illness, and the Commanders turned back
to rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt—who had been the team's
primary back earlier in the year—and he exploded with a
big performance against the Cowboys.
While beating up on the hapless Cowboys defense isn't anything
too special, what was interesting is that JCM played on 64 percent
of the team's offensive snaps—his second-highest total of
the season—and that came following a game where he was on
the field for just 20 percent of the snaps in Week 16. This would
seemingly indicate that there is a shift in the backfield, but
we can't even bank on that, as that 20-percent snap rate came
when Rodriguez was on the field. It was also against the very
same defense he's facing here in Week 18: the Eagles.
The reality is that this backfield is a huge question mark right
now, and it's attached to an offense that just isn't very good
in the first place, so there's a ton of risk with starting either
of these players. Rodriguez is probably the safer bet, but he's
also the less explosive player and is unlikely to provide a true
difference-making performance. JCM has even more risk, but he
does also have the higher ceiling, so fantasy managers will have
to weigh their own individual situations before making a decision
on which one of these backs—if any—is worth taking
a chance on.
With starting quarterback Jayden Daniels and backup Marcus Mariota
both likely out again this week, the Commanders will have to continue
to rely on third-string journeyman Josh Johnson to lead the offense.
Johnson is about as good of a third-string QB as any team in the
league has, but unfortunately, that's just not saying much, and
he was quite disappointing in the best possible matchup he could
face this past week against the Cowboys. Johnson's mediocre performance
meant that Terry McLaurin's seven targets—five of which he caught
for 63 yards—just weren't enough to make a meaningful mark on
the fantasy scoreboard.
McLaurin now faces a tough Philadelphia defense that has given
up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this
season. Not only that, but they held McLaurin himself to a scoreless
three catches for 53 yards just two weeks ago.
If anyone in the passing game is going to have a decent fantasy
performance, it's probably going to be McLaurin, but it's probably
best to bet against this Washington unit doing much through the
air here in Week 18.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
With the Eagles looking likely to rest their starters, the depth
pieces of the offense will get an opportunity here in Week 18.
The quarterbacks, wide receivers, and tight ends probably aren't
very interesting for fantasy purposes, but one player who could
be a sneaky option if you're in a tough spot is backup running
back Tank Bigsby. Bigsby has operated as Saquon Barkley's primary
backup throughout the season, and he actually scored on a long
touchdown run when these teams faced off in Week 16.
Sure, he'll probably have to share the backfield with Will Shipley
and potentially others, but Bigsby looks like the best bet of
the Eagles' Week 18 starters to do some fantasy damage.
It hasn't been formally announced yet, but with the Eagles not
having much to play for in terms of playoff positioning, they
are expected to rest most, if not all, of their normal starters.
This could mean an entire game of rest, but it also could mean
the pesky "play one drive and then sit" curveball, so
managers will need to keep a very close eye on this situation
before choosing to start any of the Eagles' usual starters.
It's Week 18, and the only player who has any fantasy relevance
in this offense continues to be running back Breece Hall. Hall
has struggled with efficiency on a bad team that doesn't often
have the benefit of being able to ice out games with their rushing
attack, but the one thing that has remained consistent is that
Hall has been getting volume. Hall has carried the ball at least
10 times in all but one game this season, and he may reach 40
receptions for the season with another solid performance in that
category this week.
Still, we have to be concerned that while Hall has been seeing
the touches, the fantasy points haven't been there nearly as often
as we'd expect, or as they were in the past. Hall had finished
with fewer than 10 fantasy points in five of his previous six
games heading into the Week 17 matchup with the Patriots when
he finally had a big fantasy day. Fortunately, the on-paper matchup
against the Bills looks great this week as Buffalo has conceded
the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing running backs this season.
The talent is there, the touches should be there, and the matchup
is solid—the only real question is: are the Jets going to
be out of this one early enough that Hall is taken out of the
gameplan?
Fade: N/A
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
So hear me out—on paper, having Josh Allen as anything
other than a "No Brainer" or at least a "Favorite"
sounds insane. And it probably is. Allen is the fantasy QB1 this
season once again, and he's been a major cornerstone for many
fantasy teams that are going to walk away with league championships
this season. However, there are some circumstances that have to
be taken into account when making the decision to start Allen
over other solid fantasy QBs who have fewer questions heading
into Week 18.
First, this matchup against the Jets is one that the Bills are
likely to get out to an early lead in, which could limit pass
attempts overall. That alone wouldn't be enough to consider benching
Allen because if the Bills are going to get out to a lead, then
it probably means that Allen has already made enough of a fantasy
contribution to satisfy his managers. But there's more to it than
that. The Bills are currently the seventh seed in the AFC and
cannot catch the Patriots in the AFC East race. This means that—at
best—the Bills are playing to be a slightly higher wild
card, which still would not result in a first-round home playoff
game. Additionally, Allen himself is also banged up with a foot
injury that has kept him out of practice throughout much of the
week. While he's trending in the right direction and expected
to play, we may be looking at a QB who is not nearly at full strength.
With the playoffs on the horizon and this game having very little
value for the Bills, the team could actually opt to pull Allen
early, or even sit him entirely if they're worried about a further
aggravation of the injury.
This is a classic example of a mega-stud player who presents
terrifying risk for managers. Proceed with caution.
Khalil Shakir is coming off a six-catch game where he led the
Bills in receptions against the Eagles, but he finds himself on
the "Fade" list for reasons that aren't entirely about
his own skills.
Shakir's value relies heavily on what happens at the quarterback
position, and with there being a legitimate concern that Josh
Allen may be rested or pulled early, the entire Bills offense
has to take a full step back in their rankings this week. Shakir
has also not been a big-time fantasy producer very often this
season, as he's technically only finished as a WR1 in one game.
He's typically a floor-based WR3, and with the floor being significantly
shifted down this week, it's tough to consider Shakir more than
a borderline Flex play even in PPR formats where his skill set
receives a boost. Shakir also only caught one pass against the
Jets earlier this year, so there's the added risk that the Jets
may just scheme their defense to defend against Shakir and let
other pass-catchers prove that they can beat them.
It's all too much of a risk in Week 18 when the championship
is on the line. Look elsewhere for a stronger floor/ceiling combo
at WR.
Since Week 12, the Raiders have allowed six different running
backs to post 15+ fantasy points, and they rank inside the bottom
ten against the position. The problem for fantasy managers is
that the Chiefs don’t have a single back you can truly trust
— nor the commitment to one — to confidently project
RB2, let alone fringe RB1, production. Still, there may be enough
volume in this matchup for Isiah Pacheco and/or Kareem Hunt to
grind out flex-level numbers.
Snap rates haven’t given us much clarity. Hunt jumped to 56% last
week after barely seeing the field the week before. Meanwhile,
Pacheco fell from 73% to 35%. There’s even a chance we see more
Brashard Smith after his touchdown reception last week, but realistically
Pacheco (52% season-long snap share) and Hunt (48%) should carry
the load, however it gets divided.
Both backs belong in the RB3 mix versus Las Vegas, with Hunt having
a slightly higher ceiling thanks to his red-zone usage (nine touchdowns
to Pacheco’s two).
If this really is Travis Kelce’s final career game, he draws
a Raiders defense that held him to just three catches earlier
this season — though those did go for 54 yards. Las Vegas
has been far tougher on tight ends than they’ve historically
been, allowing the 4th fewest FPts/G to the position. They’ve
taken some dents lately (Dallas Goedert burned them for 22 FPts),
but bounced back last week against the Giants without Theo Johnson
(illness).
It wouldn’t be shocking to see Kansas City scheme a little
extra for Kelce with nothing on the line. The tougher question
is whether he can capitalize — especially with a backup
quarterback and with his production trending down late in the
year. Kelce lands as a borderline TE1 in what could be his final
curtain call.
Chris Oladokun’s first career start went about as poorly
as possible, as Denver held him to 66 passing yards with just
11 rushing yards. His lone touchdown came on a short field after
a turnover, and he otherwise struggled to move the offense. Even
the week prior, he wasn’t able to produce a touchdown drive
against Tennessee while taking four sacks and fumbling again.
With only five career snaps before this season, it’s not surprising
that NFL defenses have overwhelmed him. The Raiders are beatable,
but still middle-of-the-pack against quarterbacks, and there’s
little here to justify starting Oladokun — especially without
Rashee Rice and with Xavier Worthy not looking like himself.
As for Worthy, rock bottom came last week with just one yard and
no catches on three targets, plus a rush. Maybe he becomes a value
next year, but without Patrick Mahomes and with the Chiefs likely
content to lean conservative and sprinkle in some “Kelce moments,”
Worthy is impossible to trust to close the season.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
With a Chiefs defense gutted by injuries and the Raiders likely
to lean run-heavy behind a limited passing attack, Ashton Jeanty
profiles as the focal point here. There’s also a milestone in
play: he needs 112 rushing yards to reach 1,000, something the
organization will almost certainly be aware of.
Jeanty’s rookie year may feel uneven for fantasy managers, but
Week 16 showed the ceiling — 188 total yards and two scores against
a tough Texans defense, including a 60-yard receiving touchdown.
His 32 broken tackles and five receiving touchdowns on 52 catches
highlight why he and Brock Bowers are building blocks for this
offense. Expect cornerstone volume against Kansas City.
The matchup isn’t simple — the Chiefs are top six
in fewest FPts/G allowed to running backs — but their vulnerability
has been through the air to the position, and Jeanty happens to
excel there. He carries RB1 upside.
Kenny Pickett is expected to start, with the possibility Aidan
O’Connell mixes in. Even if Pickett plays wire to wire,
there isn’t much fantasy appeal. He hasn’t cracked
18.5 FPts in a game over the last three seasons and has topped
200 passing yards just once in his last nine starts.
That hurts Tre Tucker as well. With Pickett averaging just 4.5
YPA this season and 6.2 for his career, Tucker’s 5.4 targets
per game don’t offer enough volume to overcome inefficient
quarterback play. He remains outside the flex conversation.
Michael Mayer’s career day last week came with Brock Bowers sidelined,
and while it was encouraging, it also looks like an outlier. With
Pickett under center and volume uncertain, Mayer falls back out
of consideration in most formats.
Last week, Omarion Hampton recorded his fourth game with five
or more receptions in just nine career contests, catching eight
passes against Houston. While he was held to only 60 total yards,
the receptions plus a rushing touchdown gave him a solid 16 fantasy
points.
With the Chargers turning to a backup quarterback, Hampton is
likely to remain the focal point of the offense in what projects
as a low-scoring game. Denver has been as stingy as any defense
against opposing backs, but they have allowed six receiving touchdowns
to the position, and Hampton already posted 129 total yards, six
receptions and a score against them earlier this season. There’s
every reason to expect the Chargers to lean heavily on him again,
giving him RB2 value despite the matchup.
The concern, of course, is health. Hampton has yet to practice
this week due to an ankle injury. If he sits, Kimani Vidal likely
takes over lead duties. Vidal practiced fully on Thursday and
appears more likely to suit up. He has been efficient on the ground
— including three 100-yard games — but his limited
receiving role (15 catches and one receiving score) isn’t
ideal against Denver’s coverage tendencies. If he draws
the start, he profiles more as a flex than an RB2.
The Chargers will turn to Trey Lance in Week 18. Lance hasn’t
accounted for a rushing or passing touchdown in a regular-season
game since 2021, and he hasn’t developed into the player
expected when he was drafted third overall. Now he’ll get
an opportunity to put something on tape — but fantasy managers
shouldn’t expect much.
Lance has never topped 20 fantasy points in five career starts,
owns just a 56.4% career completion rate, and will work behind
a damaged offensive line. His rushing ability gives him fringe
QB2 appeal on paper, but the floor is extremely low against a
Broncos defense that just held Chris Oladokun to 66 passing yards.
Even before the quarterback change, Chargers wide receivers had
become difficult to trust. Quentin Johnston remains the only member
of the group inside the Top 35 in FPts/G (WR24), and much of that
came earlier in the year. With Trey Lance under center, expectations
drop even further. Johnston and Ladd McConkey are no better than
low-end WR4 plays, while Keenan Allen has drifted to WR6 territory.
Gadsden is also hurt by the quarterback shift. Lance historically
hasn’t leaned on tight ends, even when playing with high-end
options, and no tight end has topped 29 receiving yards with him
at quarterback. Gadsden had 5 catches for 46 yards against Denver
in his first career start, but with Herbert out, he falls into
the lower TE2 range.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
As Denver looks to lock up the AFC’s No. 1 seed, RJ Harvey
will also try to erase memories of his earlier matchup with the
Chargers when he produced just five yards on five touches. That
game came before Harvey fully took over the backfield. Since then,
he has scored in five straight contests — 12 total touchdowns,
including five as a receiver.
The matchup isn’t easy. The Chargers have been tough on
running backs and have not allowed a single receiving touchdown
to the position all season. Over the last three weeks, no back
has reached 9 fantasy points against them. However, with Trey
Lance starting for Los Angeles, Denver should dominate field position,
which could create frequent short-field scoring chances. Harvey
has delivered RB1-level production over the past month and still
profiles as a strong high-end RB2 with RB1 upside here.
Bo Nix opened last week with a costly mistake that led to a Chiefs
score but otherwise shifted into a conservative approach, averaging
just seven yards per completion. His rushing production (42 yards
and a touchdown) helped salvage the day.
The Chargers have allowed only two quarterbacks to reach 20 fantasy
points all season, and with Los Angeles starting a backup quarterback,
Nix may again be asked to manage the game and lean on short throws.
He posted only 153 passing yards and 13.4 fantasy points against
the Chargers earlier this year. In a week littered with backup
quarterbacks, he’s still in the QB1 discussion — but
the ceiling is capped.
Courtland Sutton saw 10+ targets for the fourth straight game
— the longest streak of his career — yet finished
with just 6 fantasy points against Kansas City, largely because
the offense lived underneath. That could repeat if Denver prioritizes
ball control. Still, Sutton remains the team’s primary red-zone
weapon (15 touchdowns over the last two seasons), and Denver should
get scoring chances. He’s more of a borderline WR2.
Troy Franklin’s snap share dropped again, dipping to 38%
and resulting in only 17 yards on four receptions. It’s
his second game under 50% snaps in the past month, and the role
has become too unstable to trust in a championship setting.
Evan Engram hasn’t been much better, logging a third sub-40%
snap rate in four weeks and producing only 21 yards. The usage
simply isn’t there.
A back injury kept Jackson on the shelf in Week 17, but Henry’s
monster game lifted the Ravens to a win that kept their playoff
hopes alive. Now, Jackson is back at practice and looking like
he’ll be available on Sunday for the final game of the NFL
regular season. Jackson was decent in the previous matchup with
the Steelers -- 219 yards passing, 43 yards rushing, 2 total TDs
-- and always brings high-end QB1 potential into any matchup.
The former MVP has had far more misses than hits in 2025, however,
and his last trip to Pittsburgh ended with him throwing for 207
yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT in a two-point loss. He’s a risk/reward
option for this winner-take-all matchup for the AFC North.
On a night when the Ravens ran for 307 yards and 4 TDs, Mitchell
settled for a 9-31-0 line with 14 of those yards coming on one
carry. It was a disappointing effort from the speedy back, who
managed just 13 yards on nine attempts the week before. Arguably
his best game of 2025 came versus the Steelers in Week 14 when
he had 76 yards on just six carries, but Pittsburgh has been much
better in run defense recently. In three games since facing the
Ravens, the Steelers allowed 63 yards to Miami, 15 yards to Detroit,
and 78 yards to Cleveland. In a must-win game, how many touches
are the Ravens really going to give Mitchell? He’s a high-risk
flex, at best.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
With DK Metcalf suspended last Sunday, it was Freiermuth that
led the way, catching three passes for a team-high 63 yards. That
represented the second-best outing for the Penn State product
this season, and he could be a big factor again this Sunday night.
Metcalf remains suspended, and fellow TE Darnell Washington (forearm)
suffered a broken forearm in Cleveland and is done for the year.
Metcalf was the team’s leading receiver, and Washington was fourth,
so that’s a lot of production missing. Freiermuth, who ranks second
on the team, seems most likely to pick up the slack. The Ravens
have had a lot of issues in pass defense, most recently struggling
to contain Malik Willis last Saturday, so there’s some low-end
TE1 upside for Freiermuth.
Although Freiermuth paced the Steelers in receiving last Sunday,
it was Valdes-Scantling that got the most opportunities, being
targeted nine times in the loss -- that includes being thrown
to in the end zone on the final three plays of the game. It didn’t
lead to much production (3-21-0), but it’s clear that without
Metcalf available, Aaron Rodgers feels most comfortable trying
to get the ball to his former Packers running mate. That makes
MVS a potential lottery ticket in Week 18.
Forced to operate without his most dangerous weapon, Rodgers was
ineffective, settling for 168 yards without a touchdown in the
Week 17 loss to Cleveland. As a result, the Steelers must now
beat the Ravens on Sunday night to raise the AFC North banner.
While he was far more effective the last time he faced the Ravens,
throwing for a season-high 284 yards and adding a pair of TDs
(including his only rushing score), the absence of Metcalf severely
lowers his ceiling. Even against a defense that has had few answers
against the pass of late, Rodgers is unlikely to deliver QB1 appeal.
