In the four games leading up to the dismissal of Shane Waldron,
Moore averaged 3.25 catches for 26 yards with no touchdowns. In
two games since Thomas Brown assumed the play-calling duties,
Moore has totaled 14 catches, 168 yards, and a TD -- he even added
18 yards on the ground. The offense has looked better in general
with a focus on getting the ball out fast to receivers with room
to work. While Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze have done more downfield
work, Moore has been given a lot of opportunities with quick hitters
near the line of scrimmage. That’s why he’s here instead of Allen,
who had a team-high 15 targets in Week 12, or Odunze, who led
the Bears in receiving in Week 11. It makes sense to try and get
the ball out of Caleb Williams’ hands in a hostile environment
to stay in favorable down and distance. As a WR3 with upside,
Moore is a solid addition to your weekly lineup.
As with Moore, Williams has seen a sizable uptick in production
since the switch at offensive coordinator. In two games under
Brown, the rookie has thrown for 571 yards and run 103 more while
tossing his first two TD passes since Oct. 13. Even within those
two games we saw growth as Williams was more aggressive versus
Minnesota, which included a couple of big-time throws. For as
good as he’s played, the Lions aren’t 10-1 by accident.
They do give up some yards through the air (227.2/game; 25th),
but they also have twice as many interceptions (14) as TD passes
allowed (7), which is why they are first in opponent QB rating.
Each week under the new offense gives opponents a better read
on how to prepare. Plus, coming off yet another deflating last-second
loss, there could be some hangover there as well. That’s
a lot of X-factors that are working against Williams on Thanksgiving.
Fade: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Rewind just a few days and you saw Chicago completely shut down
Justin Jefferson, holding him to two catches for 27 yards. It
came at a cost, however, as the tandem of Jordan Addison (8-162-1)
and T.J. Hockenson (7-114-0) took advantage of all that attention
to light up the Bears secondary. While it seems unlikely the Bears
would give St. Brown that some level of attention -- with all
due respect, St. Brown isn’t JJ -- the Lions doubtless noticed
how the Vikings took downfield shots at Chicago, and Williams
is their designated deep threat. He’s a WR3 with big-time potential
this Thursday.
As noted above, Hockenson had tremendous success against the Bears
in Week 12, and his replacement in Detroit, LaPorta, has the talent
to take advantage, too. So, why isn’t he a favorite for
this week? Just look at his production this season. LaPorta has
just 28 catches on the year, and he’s posted three or fewer
in five of his last six games. Yes, the opportunity exists for
the second-year tight end to post TE1 numbers. He simply hasn’t
done it more than a few times this season, though, making him
a risky play even in what looks like a tempting matchup.
Despite championing Detroit’s secondary targets for potentially
big days, Goff lands on the fade list for Turkey Day. Beyond his
sporadic production over the last month, there are two main factors
behind his placement here. First, the Bears primarily struggle
with the running game, and Detroit has shown repeatedly they’re
more than happy to lean on Gibbs and Montgomery, assuming he’s
active. Second, Goff really struggled with Chicago a year ago.
In two meetings with the Bears, he averaged 199 yards per game
with 3 TDs and 5 interceptions as the teams split the season series.
Between those two items, this looks like a good week to lock someone
else into your QB1 slot if you have a good alternative.
Despite the Giants' offensive struggles under Tommy DeVito, Malik
Nabers remains a bright spot for fantasy managers. Nabers earned
a hefty 28% target share in DeVito's first start, continuing his
season-long trend of being the Giants' most consistent offensive
weapon. He has been targeted at least seven times in every game
this year, with 10 or more targets in all but three contests.
This consistent volume has translated to reliable fantasy production,
as Nabers has scored double-digit PPR points in all but one game,
even though he's only found the end zone three times (with no
touchdowns since Week 3).
This week, the Giants face the Cowboys, a team that has been
vulnerable to opposing wide receivers. Dallas just gave up a strong
performance to Terry McLaurin (102 yards and a touchdown), showcasing
their susceptibility to high-volume pass-catchers.
Nabers' consistent target share and the likelihood of the Giants
playing from behind make him a solid WR2 option in PPR formats.
While his touchdown drought limits his ceiling, his dependable
workload makes him a safe play, particularly in matchups like
this where volume should remain high.
The Giants’ backfield situation took a surprising turn in their
blowout loss to the Buccaneers, as Tyrone Tracy saw a sharp reduction
in his snap share compared to his pre-bye dominance. While Tracy
still maintained the lion’s share of touches (13 to Devin Singletary’s
4), the near 50/50 split in snaps raises some red flags for fantasy
managers ahead of their Thanksgiving matchup with the Cowboys.
On the bright side, Tracy's heavier usage in meaningful game
situations suggests he remains the favored back when the Giants
are still competing. However, given the Giants’ struggles
this season and their tendency to fall behind, it’s fair
to question whether this will translate into consistent opportunities.
The Giants’ possible focus on player health and future evaluations
could mean more involvement for Singletary, especially in non-competitive
scenarios.
This week, the Cowboys present a favorable matchup for running
backs. They’ve allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game
to the position this season, including Joe Mixon’s monster 153-yard,
three-touchdown performance just two weeks ago. Tracy has shown
the ability to produce when given a lead role, and if the Giants
can keep the game within striking distance, he could see enough
touches to deliver solid fantasy production.
The optimistic view is that Tracy gets the bulk of the meaningful
work, especially against a soft Dallas run defense, making him
a high-end RB2 with upside. On the other hand, the pessimistic
view is that this reverted back to a split backfield, which limits
Tracy's ceiling, and the game script could again lead to more
work for Singletary. In this scenario, Tracy is more of a low-end
RB2 or high-end flex option.
Monitor the Giants' game plan and the in-game snap usage, but
for now, Tracy remains the better start of the two backs against
a generous Dallas defense.
Wan’Dale Robinson has been a fringe fantasy option for most of
the season, with little upside due to his limited role in a low-scoring
Giants offense. He faces even tougher circumstances now with Tommy
DeVito or Drew Lock under center. The low pass volume of this
offense significantly limits the entire passing attack outside
of Malik Nabers. Robinson’s PPR ceiling appears capped at around
10 points, even in favorable scenarios, as he’s more of a volume-dependent
slot receiver. While his best performance this season came in
Week 4 against the Cowboys, the context of that game (40 pass
attempts from Daniel Jones) is unlikely to repeat in Week 13.
The Giants seem committed to a run-heavy game plan to protect
their QB and their vulnerable offensive line, further reducing
Robinson’s potential target volume. Even though the Cowboys have
been susceptible to big plays in the secondary, Robinson’s low
aDOT (average depth of target) and limited usage in this offense
make him a poor bet to capitalize on any defensive lapses.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
There was some belief that Ezekiel Elliott’s return to the lineup
in Week 12 might reduce Rico Dowdle’s role, but the opposite occurred.
Dowdle saw his opportunity share increase, playing 61 percent
of the Cowboys’ offensive snaps in their win over the Commanders
and handling the ball 22 times in the game. While Dowdle didn’t
score a touchdown or produce any explosive plays, his consistent
involvement in the offense over the past month has been notable,
as he’s touched the ball at least 12 times in four consecutive
games.
This week, Dowdle gets a favorable matchup against a Giants defense
that has struggled mightily against the run, allowing the sixth-most
points per game to opposing running backs. New York has surrendered
at least 100 rushing yards and/or a touchdown to an opposing running
back in six straight games. In Week 12, they allowed three different
Buccaneers backs to score while Bucky Irving piled up 151 total
yards.
Dowdle previously led the Cowboys’ backfield when they
faced the Giants in Week 4, producing 61 total yards and scoring
on his lone reception. With this game projected to be relatively
low-scoring, the Cowboys are likely to rely heavily on their running
backs, putting Dowdle in a position for significant usage once
again.
The Cowboys still have an outside chance of making the playoffs
this season, which is likely the primary motivation behind potentially
having CeeDee Lamb play in Week 13. Lamb has been managing several
lingering injuries throughout the season, including back and foot
issues, and his practice availability has been limited for weeks.
Typically, Lamb has been able to play through these injuries,
so the expectation is that he will suit up again this week. However,
the short turnaround for the Thanksgiving Day game introduces
additional risk, as Lamb may see fewer snaps than usual due to
the reduced recovery time.
Despite these challenges, Lamb has maintained an impressive target
share. He’s been targeted at least 10 times in six consecutive
games, including this past week against the Commanders, where
he caught 10 of 12 targets for 67 yards. While his efficiency
has dipped with Cooper Rush at quarterback compared to his chemistry
with Dak Prescott, Lamb’s consistent involvement in the passing
game has made him a crucial part of the offense. His health status
and reduced recovery time are the only factors potentially limiting
his impact in Week 13.
Meanwhile, tight end Luke Schoonmaker has stepped up during Jake
Ferguson’s absence. Over the past two games, Schoonmaker
has caught nine of 14 targets for 111 yards and a touchdown, filling
in effectively as the Cowboys’ primary tight end. His fantasy
viability hinges on Ferguson's status, as the latter has been
sidelined with a concussion. Ferguson had not practiced as of
Tuesday, increasing the likelihood that Schoonmaker could retain
his role for the Thanksgiving game. However, if Ferguson is cleared
to play, he would likely reclaim the starting tight end spot,
which would significantly reduce Schoonmaker's role and opportunities.
Brandin Cooks’ impending return to the Cowboys’ lineup
has sparked some nostalgia for his days as a consistent playmaker,
but his tenure in Dallas has not lived up to those expectations.
Cooks had only one notable performance earlier this season before
three consecutive underwhelming games leading up to his injury.
His struggles reflect a broader issue within the Cowboys’
offense, which has been inconsistent without Dak Prescott under
center.
Cooks is expected to resume his WR2 role in Dallas, but the offense
has been heavily reliant on CeeDee Lamb, who has consistently
commanded an elite target share. This leaves little room for secondary
receivers like Cooks to make a significant impact, especially
in a system that has struggled to generate consistent passing
volume. With these factors in play, Cooks’ return may not
be the spark the Cowboys’ passing game needs to turn things
around.
In his eighth season and on his fourth team, Smith seems to have
found the perfect offense for him. After a quiet September, the
veteran has picked things up the last two months, averaging 65
yards per game over his last seven. He’s been particularly good
the last two weeks with 15 receptions (on 19 targets) for 188
yards and 3 TDs. Smith is currently third on the club in receiving,
36 yards behind Hill and 13 yards behind Jaylen Waddle. He’s not
at no-brainer status, but this is one instance where his designation
as a favorite is based on Smith’s ascent as a playmaker and not
the matchup. He deserves a spot in your lineup on Thanksgiving
night.
By any statistical measure, 2024 has been a disappointing year
for Waddle. Even when you consider the four-game span played without
Tua Tagovailoa, the numbers don’t look very good. After averaging
63, 80, and 72 yards per game, respectively, in his first three
seasons, the former first-round pick is logging 50 this year --
and that’s after he posted an 8-144-1 line versus New England
this past Sunday. That marked just his third game of more than
50 yards this season. Given his history, you must wonder whether
it’s the start of him turning the corner, or if it’s just an outlier.
Either way, things could be tough Thursday night. The temperature
is expected to be below freezing at kickoff, and the game is rarely
kind to warm weather teams in these spots, especially ones built
on speed. You can try Waddle as a WR3 and hope he bucks that trend,
but he looks like a risky play.
Fade: N/A
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
With Romeo Doubs (concussion) unlikely to play after suffering
a concussion on Sunday, Reed is likely to become the primary target
as he’s been more consistent than Christian Watson, who had a
brutal dropped touchdown against the 49ers, or Dontayvion Wicks,
whose role shrank after he struggled with drops earlier this season.
Tucker Kraft could also see an uptick in usage, though he’s not
the downfield threat that Reed can be. Reed has had a couple quiet
weeks in a row but is just two games removed from a 113-yard effort,
his third outing of over 100 yards this season. Given Miami’s
solid pass defense (197.5 yards per game; eighth), the weather
conditions, and the recent effectiveness of Green Bay’s running
game you still shouldn’t view Reed as more than a WR3 when setting
your lineup. He does carry some upside, though.
For an offense that many view as pass centric, Love hasn’t
done all that much passing recently. In his last four games, Love
has completed fewer than 15 passes three times, though he did
bow out with a groin injury against Jacksonville. There have been
no such issues the past two weeks, though, when he’s connected
13 times each time. In Chicago, it was a byproduct of the Bears
possessing the football for long drives. Against the 49ers, it
was the success of the running game. Playing for the second time
in five days, there’s little doubt the Packers would love
to control the ball, so Jacobs might be Plan A, and while Miami
has played well defensively during their three-game winning streak,
their schedule during that time featured Las Vegas and New England
at home. Love has proven he can deliver value in limited opportunities
courtesy of Green Bay’s explosive plays, but he’d
be a dicey pick for your QB1 slot.
Despite the ongoing quarterback carousel in Las Vegas, Jakobi
Meyers has generally proved to be productive since the Raiders
and Davante Adams began their separation. Recently, that’s included
a pair of 100-yard performances in the last three games. As a
1B to tight end Brock Bowers 1A, Meyers has climbed to WR30 on
the season, and is WR14 over the last five weeks. He’s quite reasonably
a WR2 against a Chiefs team that the Raiders should be chasing
all day.
Aidan O’Connell returns from a thumb injury and gets the call
against the Chiefs, but the low ceiling and extreme volatility
at that quarterback position makes starting any Raider QB a non-option.
By-in-large, this has been true for Raiders running backs as well,
and even if Alexander Mattison returns, he’ll be facing the league’s
best run defense. As a result, reaching into the Raiders backfield
for help in your fantasy line up should be an absolute last resort.
Meanwhile, Tre Tucker is coming off of a Week 12 performance
where he tied a season high with 7 receptions, going for 82 yards
on 8 targets in the process. Tucker last achieved this feat in
Week 3, when he produced a 7-96-1 line. He followed it up with
just 7 total receptions over the next three games, and has thrice
walked away with 13 total receiving yards or less in game this
season. Tucker hasn’t established himself as a reliable target,
and offers virtually no floor. He’s best to sit against a tidy
Chiefs defense that makes few mistakes.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Patrick Mahomes delivered another solid performance last week,
throwing for 3 touchdowns for the third time in four weeks, and
has finally got back into the Top 12 in fantasy football (current
QB10 in FPts/G). He’ll face a Raiders defense that has surrendered
23 combined touchdowns to opposing quarterbacks – 20 of
them passing – and forced just 5 interceptions. Mahomes
looks good as a mid-tier QB1 for Thanksgiving weekend.
Travis Kelce’s 1.8 fantasy points against the Bills two weeks
ago is a reminder that he no longer carries the high floor he
once did, but the fact that understudy Noah Gray has twice as
many touchdowns in the last two weeks (4) than Kelce has for the
season is a reminder that Kelce’s ceiling is bowing and remains
under threat of crumbling. Kelce has enjoyed some very friendly
matchups that have helped him stay relevant, and the Raiders offer
another such opportunity, having surrendered the 4th most receptions
to tight ends and the 2nd most touchdowns. Kelce is a mid-tier
TE1 for Week 13.
Tight end Noah Gray’s last two weeks have rightfully generated
some buzz around the 25-year-old tight end’s fantasy prospects,
but it’s important to note that while Gray has been incredibly
efficient in his connection with Patrick Mahomes, he’s yet
to see more than 5 targets in a game. Not just in this season,
but during his 4-year career. Gray’s role is certainly growing,
as he already has career highs in yards (315) and touchdowns (4),
and is just 2 catches away from setting a new career high in receptions
(currently at 27 for the season). Still, he’s arguably a
boom-or-bust gamble at this moment. The Raiders are particularly
vulnerable to tight ends, especially in the red zone, and that
warrants Gray leaning towards the boom side, making him an option
for short-handed fantasy managers.
Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins has ranked as WR33 since joining
the Chiefs. He’s only cracked 50 receiving yards in two
of five games with the team, and has primarily relied of touchdowns
for fantasy production (3 during that span). The Raiders biggest
strength on defense has been against opposing receivers, though
they did just surrender 8 receptions and 2 touchdowns to Courtland
Sutton. Hopkins owners hope he will find the end zone as his success
hinges on that. He’s a low-end Flex for Week 13.
Running back Kareem Hunt’s status as an RB2 - and perhaps
even his fantasy football relevance - are very much up in the
air as Isiah Pacheco is poised to return to the field for Week
13. In Pacheco’s absence, Hunt found success through volume,
but it likely won’t be long before the efficiency he’s
lacked (3.7 yards per carry) leaves him buried behind Pacheco,
who had a 4.0 rushing average before going down early this season.
Whether Hunt’s ride comes to an end this week or next, is
the big question.
Facing a Raiders team that has hardly been terrible against the
run, but will likely cede game script to the Chiefs for much of
the day, there is room for both Hunt and Pacheco to have a fantasy
impact, especially as Pacheco will likely be limited in his first
week back. A split is the more likely result, though nothing is
guaranteed, and both backs are volatile options on Friday. Consider
both decent Flex plays in deeper leagues, and very risky ones
in 10 and 12 team set ups with standard rosters.
After becoming the fifth rookie quarterback to throw for 4,000
yards, the fantasy community anointed C.J. Stroud as the next
great pocket passer. He has not quite lived up to his QB5 ADP
and does not have a single top-5 weekly finish. Week 12 was actually
his first QB1 performance since Week 4.
That Week 4 outing came against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who
also happen to be the Texans’ Week 13 opponent. The Jaguars
have been a phenomenal matchup for quarterbacks, allowing the
most passing yards and passing touchdowns per game in the NFL.
Unsurprisingly, they have allowed the most fantasy points per
game to opposing quarterbacks. Stroud has become purely a matchup-based
starter in fantasy and this is a matchup where he can thrive.
The regression of the Texans’ passing attack has plagued
Tank Dell in his sophomore campaign. Dell’s 18.1-percent
target share and 1.53 yards per route run are both down from what
we saw last year and his connection with Stroud on the deep ball
just hasn’t been there. Altogether, Dell has been the per-game
WR47 which has been incredibly disappointing for fantasy managers.
Even with the disappointment this season, this is a matchup where
fantasy managers can consider giving Dell the nod in lineups.
As previously mentioned, the Jacksonville secondary is among the
league’s worst and they can be exploited by any receiver
with a shred of talent. Thirteen receivers have scored at least
12 PPR points against the Jaguars this season and Dell could add
to that list.
Fade: N/A
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Following season-ending injuries to both Christian Kirk and Gabe
Davis, the Jacksonville offense is left with two legitimate target
earners in Brian Thomas Jr. and Evan Engram. We could be looking
at a situation similar to Las Vegas (Jakobi Meyers and Brock Bowers)
where a WR/TE duo is a weekly threat to combine for 50 percent
of the targets.
Looking at Engram, any tight end who can draw 30 percent of the
targets each week is a shoo-in TE1. Following the injury to Kirk,
Engram has crested a 30-percent target share in two of three games
while averaging 8.3 targets per game during this stretch. Based
on volume alone, Engram is a must-start.
At this point, it almost seems like we should expect Thomas to
draw 25 percent of the targets each week considering he’ll be
running routes alongside Parker Washington, Devin Duvernay, and
Tim Jones. Trevor Lawrence is also expected to return to the lineup
this week which should allow Thomas to have more of those explosive
plays that we saw early in the year. Considering the Texans also
offer a top-10 matchup for receivers, everything is coming together
for Thomas to be a strong WR2 option in lineups this week.
Prior to suffering a shoulder injury, Trevor Lawrence was on
a tear. From Weeks 5-9, Lawrence cleared 20 points three times
and was the per-game QB9 during this five-game stretch. Thankfully,
Lawrence’s shoulder injury was to his non-throwing arm,
but it’s hard to say what he’ll look like in his first
game action since Week 9. It’s also very possible that this
limits his usage as a rusher at the goal line, which hurts his
upside.
On paper, this seems to be a good matchup for Lawrence; Houston
allows the 9th-most points per game to quarterbacks. Looking a
bit deeper, this isn’t exactly a favorable matchup. The
Texans rank third-best in yards per pass play and EPA per dropback.
However, 24 of the 31 touchdowns that the Texans have allowed
this season have come through the air, which heavily inflates
the fantasy scoring for quarterbacks. With all 32 quarterbacks
at fantasy managers’ disposal, there are better options
this week.
Early in the season, Travis Etienne held a strong grip on this
backfield. However, strong play from Tank Bigsby forced Doug Pederson
to adopt a committee approach. Before Bigsby suffered an ankle
injury, this was a near 50-50 split. Bigsby returned to practice
this week and we can expect to see a heavy division of touches
between the two backs. From what we’ve seen this season, Bigsby,
who ranks 5th in explosive rush rate, could be efficient enough
to deliver meaningful production in a split backfield. However,
it’s better to explore other options in a game where Jacksonville
will likely be playing from behind.
Jim Harbaugh has opted to take a more balanced offensive approach
in recent weeks and it has worked wonders for Justin Herbert’s
fantasy value. Across the last six weeks, the Chargers’
pass rate over expectation has been 4.7 percent which would rank
5th across the full season. Herbert has also attempted 35-plus
passes three times during this stretch, something he never did
during the first six weeks of the year. Since Week 7, Herbert
has been the QB9 and has five QB1 performances.
Herbert is in a great spot to keep his hot streak going in Week
13. The Falcons rank 7th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
They also rank 22nd or worse in just about every significant defensive
passing efficiency metric. Herbert is a strong QB1 option this
week.
Ladd McConkey has been a key piece of the recent surge for the
Chargers’ passing attack. McConkey leads the team in both
target share and air yards share; he’s quickly solidifying
himself as Herbert’s go-to option. Over the last month,
McConkey is fantasy’s WR19 and he seems to get open at will.
Against a weak secondary, McConkey is a quality WR2 or Flex option
in PPR leagues
With Dobbins ruled out, Gus Edwards is the de facto RB1 in Los
Angeles this week. While he’s the favorite to lead the team
in carries, he’s not guaranteed to hold a role that leads
to fantasy relevance. We saw him take 9 carries for 11 yards last
week and this inefficiency could drive the coaching staff to look
for production elsewhere if he gets off to a slow start this week.
Edwards also offers virtually zero pass-catching upside, drawing
39 targets in six NFL seasons. Edwards is merely a touchdown lottery
ticket.
Will Dissly has also benefited from the recent aerial production
in Los Angeles. He’s drawn six-plus targets in four of his
last six games and has become a popular sleeper option thanks
to his uptick in volume. Unfortunately, Dissly is dealing with
a groin issue and did not practice to open the week. If he’s
able to suit up, Dissly is a fringe TE1 option who will require
a touchdown to finish as a top-10 tight end.
After it looked like he had overcome his rookie season woes,
Quentin Johnston returned to his 2023 form last week against the
Ravens. He dropped three passes on five targets and finished with
a goose egg in the box score. Throughout the year, Johnston has
been a low-volume receiver who relied on explosive plays and touchdowns
to make a difference in fantasy lineups. After last week’s
performance, it’s hard to feel confident with him in any
lineup.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Some, myself included, have been slow to adopt Darnell Mooney
as a legitimate fantasy asset, but it’s time to admit that
he is a weekly starter in 3 WR leagues. Mooney is the per-game
WR25 this season and he’s shown that he can compete for
targets with Drake London. Mooney’s 23 percent target rate
and 2.09 yards per route run are both strong numbers and should
not be overlooked. He can earn volume and has shown that he can
make plays downfield. Don’t leave Mooney on the bench this
week.
It’s been an absolute roller coaster of a year for Kyle
Pitts. At times, he’s making dynamic plays and generating
yardage after the catch. In other games, it’s been a struggle
for him to earn three targets.
While these numbers tend to be a bit noisy, the Chargers have
been effective at containing opposing tight ends, allowing just
8.5 points per game to the position. They have also allowed just
three tight ends to hit 50 receiving yards on the year. It seems
like we are likely to see the bottom end of the spectrum for Pitts
this week, but some teams may not have a better option.
Kirk Cousins inexplicably has the Buccaneers’ number this
season. In two games against Tampa Bay, Cousins is averaging 32.0
PPG. In nine other games this season, he’s averaging 11.4
points per game. The Falcons rank 25th in pass rate over expectation
and heavily rely on their running back tandem to carry the offense.
Cousins requires elite efficiency to get there in any given week
and really should not be viewed as a QB1 option.
Tony Pollard’s bounceback season continued this past week
as the Titans’ RB rushed for 119 yards and a touchdown in
the Titans’ surprising victory over the Texans. The touchdown
was Pollard’s first score since Week 6 even though he was
still able to produce double-digit PPR fantasy points in three
of the five games during his scoreless drought.
Pollard being stuck in the Tennessee offense means that he lacks
the upside to be a true high-end RB1 most weeks, but he’s providing
useful numbers and should be in fantasy lineups this week against
a Washington defense that gave up nearly 100 total yards to Rico
Dowdle this past week.
The Tennessee passing game hasn’t been what many had hoped
for coming into the year, but what’s been interesting is
that, since DeAndre Hopkins was traded, the Titans have consolidated
their targets down to just a few players. The biggest beneficiaries
have been Calvin Ridley and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, both of whom
have seen their usage and production improve significantly since
Hopkins’ departure.
Ridley has now averaged nearly 17 PPR fantasy points per game
over the past five weeks, while Westbrook-Ikhine has seen his
per-game average move to over 13 points per game over the same
stretch. Westbrook-Ikhine, by comparison, had scored just 16.9
total fantasy points over the first six weeks of the season prior
to the Hopkins trade.
Both Titans receivers are viable fantasy options right now, especially
in a game against the Commanders where they may need to pass to
stay close on the scoreboard.
While his top two pass catchers have seen a spike in production
over recent weeks, Will Levis himself has remained just a QB2
for fantasy purposes. He hasn’t yet thrown for 300 yards
or three touchdowns in any game this season and while he’s
shown some mobility, he’s averaging just under 22 yards
per game on the ground and hasn’t yet rushed for a touchdown
this season. His lack of ceiling, combined with the ugly floor
we’ve seen from him at times, makes him a low-end QB2 at
best right now.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Quarterback Jayden Daniels had been struggling to deliver spike
week performances since getting injured back in Week 7, but we
finally saw the “old” Jayden Daniels this past week.
Daniels might have thrown two interceptions, which is unlike him,
but he made up for it by throwing for 275 yards and tossing two
touchdowns while also rushing for 74 yards and an additional score.
This kind of performance reminds us why it’s important to
always consider the potential ceiling of players because very
few quarterbacks can ever provide this type of performance.
Terry McLaurin also benefited from Daniels’ big day as
the Commanders’ WR1 turned in a five-catch, 102-yard performance
while also scoring a touchdown. It was McLaurin’s seventh
touchdown reception of the season - matching a career-high - and
his fifth 100-yard performance of 2024. His season hasn’t
always been excellent, but McLaurin has been great more often
than he’s been bad and that’s enough reason to keep
him in lineups.
Veteran Zach Ertz continues to see strong usage in Washington
as the tight end has now been targeted seven or more times in
four of his past five games. He’s also managed to turn that into
three solid PPR fantasy days, which is a lot more than can be
said for most tight ends throughout the league this season. He
may not have the name value anymore, but Ertz is producing like
a must-start fantasy TE right now and is essentially the Commanders’
WR2. The only real concern that fantasy managers should have this
week is that he is facing a Titans defense that has only allowed
three touchdowns to the TE position on the season and no tight
end has reached even 60 yards against them.
Update: Brian
Robinson Jr. is expected to play. Austin Ekeler has been ruled
Out.
The Commanders’ backfield is dealing with injuries at the
moment as both Robinson and Ekeler are questionable heading into
this week’s contest.
Robinson had previously missed multiple games with a hamstring
injury and has now been diagnosed with an ankle injury that he
tried to play through against the Cowboys but was seemingly unable
to do so. This is a concerning situation for his status because
the Commanders could’ve used him in what ended up being
a close loss to the Cowboys, and he has now been limited in practice
as of Wednesday. Even if he’s able to play, Robinson could
very well be in a limited snap count, which would obviously limit
his upside.
Meanwhile, Ekeler has been dealing with a concussion that he
also suffered this past week. There is hope that he could be in
the lineup this week, but we’ve seen many players have to
miss at least one game following a concussion in 2024 and it would
not be at all surprising if Ekeler is eventually ruled out. Of
course, if he is active then Ekeler will likely resume nearly
his normal workload, and potentially have an increased role if
Robinson is out, but fantasy managers will want to keep a close
eye on this situation.
If both Robinson and Ekeler are out then Jeremy McNichols figures
to play a significantly increased role, potentially as the bell
cow in this Washington backfield. McNichols is not the quality
of player that Robinson or Ekeler is, but he’s averaging nearly
five yards per carry this season and has already turned in a couple
of useful fantasy days, so he’s a fine speculative add from waivers
in deeper leagues.
Most weeks, Murray would be a no brainer. Not this one. The diminutive
quarterback isn’t a prolific passer in terms of yardage, which
lessens Minnesota’s biggest weakness as a defense -- they rank
28th versus the pass at 242.5 yards per game. Where the Vikings
do a better job is keeping opponents out of the end zone, giving
up 17 TDs through the air with 16 interceptions. They’re not an
easy defense to move the ball on when it matters. Murray’s running
is the wild card. He’s had five games of 45 yards or more, and
six games of less than 25, including four in a row. The Vikings
haven’t seen many mobile quarterbacks this season, though last
week Caleb Williams made some plays, running 33 yards on six carries.
If Murray can generate yards and extend plays with his legs, he
could deliver QB1 value. Just understand there’s substantial risk
here, so consider your options carefully.
The first non-quarterback selected in this year’s draft,
Harrison was tabbed by many as a potential top 10 (or at least
top 15) fantasy wideout for 2024. It hasn’t happened. The
rookie has had two games of over 100 yards. In his other nine,
he has finished with fewer than 50 yards seven times. With such
limited production, Harrison is hovering around that WR3/flex
territory, so fading him isn’t a huge stretch. This designation
is more of a warning not to read too much into Minnesota’s
28th-ranked pass defense as some of that is born of carrying big
leads in several games with teams needing to go to the air to
try and catch up. You could still deploy Harrison as a low-end
WR3, but a huge game from McBride seems more likely.
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
With the Bears hell bent on limiting Jefferson’s impact last
Sunday, the trio of Jones, Jordan Addison, and Hockenson each
topped 100 yards of offense. It probably felt the best for Hockenson,
who’d had 112 yards combined in three games since returning from
last year’s torn ACL before going off for a 7-114-0 line in the
Windy City. Surprisingly, it was only his third 100-yard game
since being acquired from the Lions in November of 2022. The tight
end gives Darnold another low-risk target in the intermediate
game when teams are focused on Jefferson and, to a lesser extent,
Addison. While there’s still some element of risk given the limited
sample size since his return, Hockenson was a reliable TE1 before
the injury, and you can feel good about plugging him into your
lineup in that role against the Cardinals.
In the midst of a disappointing second season, Addison delivered
easily his best game of the year this past Sunday. With Chicago
focused on Jefferson, the USC product posted eight receptions,
162 yards, and a touchdown -- for comparison, his previous season
highs in catches was five and in yardage was 72. Now, we’ll see
what he can do for an encore. The Cardinals rank 20th against
the pass (218.6 yards per game), which is right in the middle,
but it was just a week ago that they had more success stopping
DK Metcalf than they did Jaxon Smith-Njigba, who posted a 6-77-1
line from the WR2 position for the Seahawks. While the Vikings
might want to get Jefferson back involved after last week’s two-catch
performance, Addison carries decent upside as your No. 3 wideout
in this one.
A 24-6 loss to the Lions meant that the Colts were not able to
get their running game going, which limited Jonathan Taylor’s
production in Week 12. The running back has now been held to single-digit
PPR fantasy points in three of his past four games, further highlighting
the overall concerns that fantasy managers have about the Indianapolis
offense as a whole. Perhaps the worst part is that Taylor is almost
a complete non-factor in the passing game.
On a positive note, the Colts now have an opportunity to play
against the Patriots - one of the league’s lowest-scoring
teams, in what could be a positive game script for this offense.
Taylor still dominates the touches out of the backfield and the
Patriots have already given up more than 75 rushing yards to eight
different running backs this season, including four 100-yard performances.
Overall, they’ve conceded the fourth-most rushing yardage
to opposing running backs, although it’s worth considering
that they’ve played an extra game than most teams.
The Indianapolis offense looks bad, but if you can’t start
Taylor this week then you might as well trade him away for 50
cents on the dollar because his next two games are against the
Broncos and Titans - two teams that are borderline elite against
the run.
Anthony Richardson’s 11-of-28 passing day against the Lions
was another data point in what is becoming a long list of awful
passing efficiency games. He has now failed to exceed a 50 percent
completion rate in six of his seven full games played this season.
While the numbers this past week were a bit skewed as the Colts
receivers dropped a few catchable passes, including one that should’ve
been a touchdown, it’s hard to get too excited when the
wider sample is that Richardson is just a bad thrower of the football.
However, even despite this poor efficiency, Richardson continues
to get the job done as a runner. He carried the ball 10 times
for a season-high 61 yards this past week, and that came after
a two-rushing-touchdown performance in Week 11. Richardson has
rushed for at least 24 yards in every game this season so if he
can even throw a single touchdown this week against the Patriots
then he’s probably a borderline QB1 for fantasy. The problem
is that, unless he increases his overall passing efficiency, it’ll
be hard for him to get back to must-start fantasy territory even
if he continues to run the ball well.
While Richardson struggled overall, one player who seemed to
bounce back in a big way this past week was wide receiver Michael
Pittman. Pittman matched his season-high with six receptions,
converting them for 96 yards in the loss to the Lions - his first
double-digit PPR day since back in Week 6. This looks like it
could be a fluky one-off performance, but the added context here
is that fellow wide receiver Josh Downs went down with an injury,
which now further solidifies Pittman as the WR1 in Indianapolis.
It’s hard to bank on that being a high-floor position given Richardson’s
subpar efficiency, but Pittman is an interesting bye-week fill-in
or add off the waiver wire in leagues where he was dropped.
Fellow wide receiver Alec Pierce could see a role increase given
the Downs’ injury, but Pierce himself is also dealing with
a foot injury that has kept him out of practice as of Wednesday
and is now threatening his availability here in Week 13. While
Pierce’s target share has remained minimal, his big play-making
skills have allowed him to turn in a couple of decent fantasy
performances as of late, catching eight of the 15 passes over
the past three weeks. He has, however, been a non-factor for fantasy
purposes for most of the season, aside from a few spike weeks,
and a matchup against a tough New England defense doesn’t
seem like it’s the best time to take a chance on him.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
The tight end position has remained unpredictable throughout
the league this season, which, along with his own positive bill
of health, has allowed Hunter Henry to be a low-end TE1 on the
season. Henry has now finished with at least five catches in five
of his past six games and he scored a touchdown the week before
this stretch, which was Drake Maye’s first career start. Needless
to say, no one in the New England offense has benefited more from
Maye’s insertion into the lineup than Henry. Add in the fact that
Henry is now facing a Colts defense that has given up the sixth-most
fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends and it’s easy to
see why Henry will be in many lineups this week.
There’s no question that the Patriots offense has been
better with Drake Maye behind center, but the team has been in
quite a few low-scoring contests against other mediocre offenses,
so we haven’t had much of an opportunity to see what he
might be able to do in a better game script. Unfortunately, it
looks like the Patriots could be headed for another low-scoring
contest this week as they face the Colts who themselves have struggled
mightily on offense. These low-scoring matchups limit Maye’s
overall potential to be a low-end QB1 and give him a floor of
being a low-end QB2.
The low-scoring games have meant a lot more work for Rhamondre
Stevenson in recent weeks, but this past week’s blowout
loss to the Dolphins gave us a sample of how bad things can end
up being when the Patriots fall behind on the scoreboard. Stevenson
was held to just eight touches and he also failed to register
a catch. His 3.3 fantasy points were a floor that few other “starting”
running backs have to worry about. However, the game outlook does
look much more favorable for Stevenson this week as the Patriots
host the Colts, a team that has not run away on the scoreboard
this season, especially when Anthony Richardson has been behind
center. Prior to this past week’s loss to Miami, Stevenson
had previously averaged nearly 21 touches per game over his previous
four games, so he’s still very much the focal point of this
offense. That workload alone, even in a bad offense, is worthy
of RB2/Flex status.
Fade: All Patriots Wide Receivers
While the overall Patriots offense has improved with Drake Maye
behind center, it hasn’t yet converted into usable fantasy production
for any of their wide receivers. Players like Demario Douglas,
Kayshon Boutte, and Kendrick Bourne have all had their moments,
but none of them are delivering the ceiling that fantasy managers
need to justify putting them into their lineups.
The gap between Harris and Warren continues to shrink. Last Thursday,
Harris logged 18 touches to 14 for Warren with the latter being
the more effective of the two, turning his 14 opportunities into
64 yards and his first touchdown of the season. While the Alabama
product is still the better fantasy option by virtue of his lead
back status, Warren is now firmly in weekly RB3/flex territory,
at least in good matchups. The Bengals would qualify as such.
Cincinnati ranks 20th in run defense (129.8 yards/game) and 23rd
against the pass (225.6). In two matchups with the Bengals last
year, Warren averaged 58 yards per game as the Steelers swept
the season series. While the Bengals will doubtless be well rested
coming off their Bye and in dire need of a win to keep their playoff
hopes alive, their defense has been a season-long issue. Don’t
expect that to change.
In his first three starts, Wilson averaged 246 yards and 2 TDs
as the Steelers put up 30.3 points per game. In their last two,
he’s put up 238 yards per game but just one total touchdown as
Pittsburgh’s scoring average dropped to 18.5 points. Cincinnati
is giving up 26.9 points per game (28th), so this represents an
opportunity for the Steelers offense to get back on track after
a couple quiet games. The question is how will they look to go
about it? As noted above, Cincinnati is susceptible to both the
run and pass. Their strength is their offense, so it makes sense
that Pittsburgh would want to control the clock and keep Joe Burrow
and company on the sidelines. That sounds like a focus on the
running attack. Then again, if the Bengals do push out, the Steelers
could find themselves playing from behind, which would put the
ball in Wilson’s hand. The veteran QB owns fringe QB1 value here,
but he could fall well short of that.
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Cincinnati is a unique team for fantasy purposes in that the offense
is basically built around four players -- Burrow, Brown, Chase,
and Higgins -- and when all are available, you’d be hard pressed
to find a reason to bench any of them. Simultaneously, none of
the tertiary guys warrant much consideration. A year ago, you
could make a case for Tyler Boyd now and then. Earlier this year,
Brown split duties with Zack Moss (neck), but he got hurt, Brown
took off, and newcomer Khalil Herbert has had almost no role since
being acquired from Chicago. About the only wild card right now
is Gesicki, who has put together a few impactful performances
this season, most recently in Week 9 against the Raiders when
he put up a 5-100-2 line. Of course, that came with Higgins on
the shelf. Maybe the Pittsburgh pass rush forces Burrow to make
more underneath throws -- Cleveland threw 10 passes to tight ends
last Thursday -- but with all 32 teams in action it feels like
a very long shot for Gesicki to force his way into TE1 territory.
The quietest WR1 season in recent memory continues to roll on
as Jaxon Smith-Njigba turned in another excellent fantasy performance
this past week against the Cardinals. JSN has now scored at least
12 PPR fantasy points in seven of his 11 fantasy games, including
four performances of 19 or more points - three of which have come
over his past three games.
We may be witnessing a shift in the offense overall with Smith-Njigba
potentially ascending into the top pass-catching weapon for the
Seahawks. He’s now caught six or more passes in four straight
games and should almost completely avoid any coverage from the
Jets’ perimeter corners D.J. Reed and Sauce Gardner as he
operates out of the slot as often as any receiver in the league.
DK Metcalf struggled to put together a big game this past week
against the Cardinals, but fantasy managers shouldn’t be
too hard on him as the game was played in rainy conditions and
he still turned in a four-catch day despite only being targeted
five times. Metcalf has now led all Seattle receivers in snap
count in each of the two games he’s played in since returning
to injury, further indicating that he is back to full health and
should be back to being his usual borderline WR1/2 self.
The recent emergence of Jaxon Smith-Njigba hasn’t had a
huge impact on DK Metcalf, but Tyler Lockett does seem to be taking
a big hit in his target share. Lockett has now been targeted four
or fewer times in four straight games, which almost perfectly
correlates with Smith-Njigba’s recent target share spike.
Lockett had previously finished with double-digit PPR fantasy
points in four of his first seven games, but he has now failed
to reach 10 points in four of his five games since. This streak
looks like much more of a trend than an aberration, so fantasy
managers would be wise to sit Lockett until we see his usage move
back in the right direction.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
The Seahawks’ defense kept the Cardinals’ wide receivers
in check this past week, but that was also a low-scoring game
in the rain. Before that contest, they had struggled against opposing
wide receivers as they had conceded PPR fantasy days of 16 or
more points to 11 different receivers in their previous seven
games.
The Jets’ wide receiver duo of Garrett Wilson and Davante Adams
may look better on paper than it has performed on the field thus
far, but they’re still a good enough unit with a high enough target
share that fantasy managers will probably want to start them in
almost every format.
Breece Hall’s status for Week 13 is in question as the
running back has sat out of practice with a knee injury as of
Wednesday. The coaching staff has indicated that they are “still
hopeful” that he will be active, but that’s far from
a guarantee, so fantasy managers will need to keep a close eye
on this situation. Should Hall be active, he remains one of fantasy
football’s highest-ceiling players who has also delivered
a quality floor more often than not.
Of course, if Hall is inactive then the team will likely look
to backup Braelon Allen to get his first opportunity to be the
lead back at the NFL level. Allen has had his moments, particularly
early in the year when he “stole” a couple of touchdowns
away from Hall, but he’s otherwise had a fairly uneventful
rookie season. That would change dramatically if he’s given
the start as he would be nearly a lock for a dozen or more touches,
with the potential for much more if the Jets can stay close on
the scoreboard. Wise fantasy managers, especially those rostering
Hall, will be looking to add Allen as soon as possible if he’s
still available on waivers.
Even with one of the league’s most talented wide receiver
duos and a running back who can make big plays in the passing
game, Aaron Rodgers continues to provide less-than-stellar fantasy
production here in 2024. He’s failed to throw for even 250
yards in all but three games, hasn’t reached 300 in any
game, and he’s only exceeded two touchdown passes once while
failing to throw a single touchdown pass in two other games. He’s
had a couple of really bad performances, but typically his floor
is decent enough for him to be a mid-level QB2, which is fine
for a two-QB or Superflex league, but it’s just not enough
for fantasy managers to make much use of him in traditional single-QB
formats.
With Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp by his side, we’ve been
treated to some vintage Mathew Stafford performances in recent
weeks. Since Week 8, Stafford is averaging 20.5 points per game,
scoring fewer than 18.0 points just once. Stafford is averaging
7.53 yards per attempt and has thrown 12 touchdowns during this
five-game stretch.
The Saints have struggled to contain opposing passing attacks
this season, allowing 256.6 passing yards per game. Given this
clear weakness, Sean McVay’s game plan will likely revolve
around his two star receivers and Stafford should stuff the stat
sheet as a result.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Over the years, Taysom Hill has been a fantasy-relevant tight
end thanks to his usage in the red zone and ability to strike
for a touchdown in any given week. However, it’s been difficult
to predict when he’d deliver his spike weeks because his
usage would be so sporadic.
This season, the Saints have lost their top three receivers which
has forced Hill to take on a larger role. He’s been a consistent
piece of the New Orleans offense, clearing a 40-percent snap share
in three straight games. Head coach Darren Rizzi provided confirmation
that this sort of usage will hold up for Hill, telling reporters,
“I think our usage with him these last couple weeks is really
what we’re kind of trying to trend towards. A little bit
of everything, not too much of anything.” A consistent role
in the offense will provide Hill with a reasonable floor and makes
him a weekly starter.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling has reached deep into his bag of tricks
in the Saints’ last two games, ripping off 67-yard and 71-yard
touchdowns. Valdes-Scantling has made a few big plays, but he
has not cracked a 15-percent target share in a single game with
the Saints. He is a low-volume receiver who relies on deep touchdowns
to score fantasy points. There are far better bets to make at
your Flex this week.
When someone on your fantasy roster has the Panthers on the schedule,
you should be absolutely thrilled to fire them up in your lineup.
Carolina ranks at the bottom of the barrel in nearly every defensive
efficiency metric and has the No.32 scoring defense in the league,
allowing 30.9 points per game.
Baker Mayfield has been one of the steals of fantasy drafts this
season and is currently the QB5 through 12 weeks. He’s managed
to stay productive without Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, finishing
as a top-12 QB twice in four games without the duo. Now that Evans
is back in action, Mayfield is a must-start against a defense
that allows 20.0 points per game to quarterbacks.
Tampa Bay has one of the few backfields where both backs in the
committee can be started in lineups every week. Bucky Irving moved
into the 1A role last week, playing more snaps and running more
routes than Rachaad White for the first time all season. Even
with Irving emerging, White finished as the RB17 last week thanks
to a touchdown.
Against the Panthers, both of these running backs can be started.
The Panthers allow 27.1 points per game to running backs, the
highest mark in the league. They have also allowed multiple backs
to find success in the same game. Both the Bengals and Falcons
had two backs score at least 17.8 points in their matchups with
the Panthers. As long as the Buccaneers have a handful of red
zone drives, both Irving and White can have the yardage and scoring
opportunities to finish as an RB2 or better.
Cade Otton is the final piece in Tampa Bay that fantasy managers
care about. While Evans and Godwin were sidelined, Otton was the
focal point of the Tampa Bay passing attack. In Evans’ return
last week, Otton’s role took a hit and he drew fewer than
six targets for the first time since Week 5. However, when 400
yards of offense and 30 points are well within the range of outcomes,
Otton is a low-end TE1 option.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have one of the league’s most
vulnerable secondaries in the NFL. They rank both 26th in yards
per pass play and EPA per dropback. 13 receivers have scored at
least 12 PPR points against this defense and they have proved
to be an incredibly favorable matchup for receivers.
David Moore had his moment last week, but Xavier Legette and
Adam Thielen remain the most talented receivers in this offense.
Legette has four finishes as a WR3 or better this season and we’ve
seen Bryce Young carry Adam Thielen to a WR17 finish (overall)
last season. This is a good spot for Bryce Young to keep up his
hot streak going and the success of the Panthers’ passing attack
will likely come through Thielen or Leggette.
Smith was inactive on Sunday night against the Rams due to a
hamstring injury, and as of this writing his status for Week 14
is unknown. Obviously, if he’s out, you can throw out everything
that comes after this sentence. If Smith is active, however, there’s
a lot to like with Baltimore’s porous pass defense. While
a couple of decent weeks, combined with Jacksonville getting boat
raced by the Lions in Week 11, finally moved the Ravens from last
in pass yards allowed to 31st (277.7 yards/game), this is still
a major weakness for Baltimore. Based on matchup alone, Smith
would be a favorite. A few things give him some downside, however.
Lingering effects from the injury and inconsistent production
-- he has 30 yards or less in three of his last five games --
sit atop the list. Plus, with the way Barkley has been playing,
who’s to say the Eagles can’t have success running.
Smith could fill a WR3 spot with potential for more.
In eight games played this season, Goedert has 406 yards. One
hundred and seventy of them came in Week 3. That means he’s
averaging 34 yards per game in his other seven outings. Even with
Smith in street clothes against the Rams in Week 12, Goedert managed
just four receptions for 19 yards. While it would be tempting
to look at Baltimore’s issues in the secondary and see opportunity,
the veteran tight end hasn’t delivered except during the
game-plus where Brown and Smith were both out. Despite a plus
matchup, Goedert can’t be trusted in your starting lineup.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
With touchdowns in five of his last seven games, including a two-TD
effort on Oct. 21, Andrews has turned the corner on a brutal start
to the 2024 season that saw him go without a catch in Weeks 3
and 4. Despite his strong work in the red zone, the veteran hasn’t
reclaimed no-brainer status in our book. The yards just aren’t
there. During the seven-game stretch mentioned above, Andrews
has averaged just 43 yards per game, and the two weeks he didn’t
score he managed 48 yards combined. Only the Titans and Jets have
allowed fewer passing yards per game than the Eagles (175.5).
We know the Ravens will try to get Flowers involved. Beyond that,
pickings might be slim. Six TDs in seven weeks shows Andrews can
generate value with modest yardage. That’s enough to justify
a spot in your starting lineup.
Bateman falls victim to the same potential pitfalls as Andrews
with Philly’s defense being so solid against the pass. The difference
is Bateman hasn’t enjoyed the same level of success when it comes
to scoring touchdowns, and over the last five weeks he’s totaled
an unimpressive 180 receiving yards. He’s also competing for snaps
and targets with Nelson Agholor and Diontae Johnson, whose role
should expand at some point. Despite hauling in a nice touchdown
grab this past Sunday, Bateman doesn’t look like a palatable option
for your starting lineup in Week 13.
Many of us believed that Deebo Samuel would see a big increase
in usage when Brandon Aiyuk went on IR back in Week 8, but that
simply hasn’t been the case. Instead, it’s been Jauan Jennings
who’s taken a big step forward in Aiyuk’s absence, having now
accumulated an impressive 29 targets over the three games since
San Francisco’s bye. It’d be almost impossible for him to ever
get back to the ridiculous 46-point output he had back in Week
3, but Jennings has been providing reliable fantasy production
both from a ceiling and a floor standpoint.
This week Jennings does have a tougher-than-usual matchup against
Buffalo's defense which has been a top-10 defense and containing
opposing wide receivers, but he should be in line to continue
to be peppered with targets regardless of which quarterback is
behind center. Obviously, we’d prefer it be Purdy, but Jennings
still managed to see a 24 percent target share with Brandon Allen
behind center in Week 12.
With a few nagging injuries and an overall dip in offensive efficiency
for the 49ers, the 2024 season has been brutal on fantasy managers
who invested heavily in Deebo Samuel. Samuel has now failed to
exceed five receptions in nine of the 10 games he’s played
in. While he’s still seen a few carries in many games which
has helped boost his numbers just a bit, the carries haven’t
been taking place near the goal line very often so he hasn’t
scored a rushing touchdown since Week 1.
With Brandon Allen or a banged-up Brock Purdy likely at quarterback
this week, Samuel is an even riskier option than he normally is.
Samuel has been able to produce usable fantasy weeks on low usage
in the past, but it’s tough to bank on that on a struggling offense.
While Deebo Samuel’s numbers have taken a dip in recent
weeks, no player has been affected by the 49ers’ quarterback
situation more than rookie Ricky Pearsall. Pearsall started off
his NFL career relatively strong, catching 11 passes over his
first three games, but has since been targeted two times in Week
11 and zero times in Week 12. He didn’t catch either of
the two passes that came his way in Week 11, either, so it’s
back-to-back goose eggs for the first-round NFL Draft pick. Better
days are ahead for Pearsall, but this is a situation that fantasy
managers will want to avoid for now.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
James Cook’s 2024 season just continues to look better
and better as the running back has now scored 11 touchdowns in
10 games. He may only have one 100-yard game and he’s only
caught 25 passes so far, but he’s still managing to produce
excellent fantasy numbers based almost exclusively on his red
zone efficiency.
Cook and the Bills are fresh coming off of their bye and they
have a matchup against a 49ers team that has been reeling in recent
weeks. They just allowed Josh Jacobs to rush for 106 yards and
three touchdowns against them in a blowout loss in Week 12.
The Bills are big home favorites in this one and the game script
could end up favoring Cook, particularly if Brock Purdy misses
the game, so this is a must-start situation for a red-hot running
back.
Khalil Shakir missed one game with an injury and was held to
just two catches in the game immediately following his return
from the injury, but otherwise, he’s been among the most
consistent players in all of fantasy football this season. The
numbers haven’t always been Earth-shattering, but Shakir
has managed to score between 10 and 20 PPR fantasy points in nine
of the 10 games he’s played this season. Perhaps most impressively,
he’s managed to do that while scoring just two touchdowns
on the season.
Many expected that Shakir’s usage would take a big dip once the
team brought in Amari Cooper, but that hasn’t been the case. He’s
still by far the team’s most-utilized wide receiver and while
the ceiling for a WR1 game isn’t there, Shakir is a strong low-end
WR2/Flex play in PPR formats in really any matchup.
Amari Cooper, Keon Coleman, and Dalton Kincaid all had significantly
more fantasy hype surrounding them than Khalil Shakir did to start
the 2024 season, but Shakir has been by far the team’s most
reliable pass-catcher this season. Cooper has been targeted just
10 times in the three games he’s played since joining the
Bills. Meanwhile, Coleman has missed each of the Bills’
past two games with a wrist injury and could be limited or out
entirely again in this one. Kincaid, while more forgivable due
to his position, has not reached even 15 PPR fantasy points in
any game this season even though he’s averaging well over
six targets per game.
The Bills are an excellent offense that is capable of putting
up big points in any game, but these receivers aren’t making
a case for themselves to be utilized more in the offense, so it’s
tough to trust them even in what could be a plus-matchup for them
against a struggling San Francisco defense.
Through a combination of volume and red zone opportunity, Nick
Chubb found his way to his best fantasy performance since returning
in 2024, putting up 18.5 points last week. Still, Chubb has yet
to break 60 yards rushing in five games, and has a sluggish and
very un-Chubb-like 3.0 rushing average.
The Broncos have not been a steel trap against the run, but they
have had numerous notable performances against highly regarded
backs, including allowing just 2.8 points to Breece Hall, 5.4
to Alvin Kamara, and 8.3 to Bijan Robinson just two weeks ago.
With Chubb currently looking the part of a running back who needs
to reach the end zone to provide fantasy relevance and facing
a team that doesn’t surrendered a whole lot of red zone
opportunities, he’s an iffy flex option in Week 13.
Following a hollow connection with Jameis Winston in their first
match up together against the Bengals five weeks ago, Jerry Jeudy
and Winston have absolutely clicked, with Jeudy raking in four
consecutive games of at least 5 receptions and 73 yards. Despite
very difficult conditions last week, Jeudy caught a perfect 6-of-6
targets, producing 85 yards. Things will get about as tough as
they can get for Jeudy against the Denver defense, but with how
he has been rolling, he’s still worth consideration as at least
a low-end Flex.
David Njoku is coming off of a quiet Week 12 (1-9-0), but is
still ranked as the overall TE8 in FPts/G on the season, and has
produced at least 12.6 points in three of the five games he’s
played with Jameis Winston. He’s more of back end TE1 this week
only because he faces a Broncos team that allows just 8.3 yards
per catch to opposing tight ends this season.
Jameis Winston’s style of play lends naturally to him being
a boom-or-bust candidate for fantasy managers who are mired in
low ceiling options at quarterback. While there are weeks that
setup nice for Winston, facing a Broncos defense creates a dangerously
low floor and limits his ceiling. It’s reasonably better
to go with a far less exciting, but safer floor option in Week
13.
After a three-week tear following the departure of Amari Cooper,
Cedric Tillman has significantly cooled over the last two weeks,
totaling just 5 receptions for 75 yards. It may be no coincidence
that he has faced better competition during that time than what
he faced during his first three matchups, and it won’t get
easier against the Broncos, if he’s even active. If Tillman
can return from a concussion, he carries a similarly low floor
to what he did last week against the Steelers, and is worth sitting
in Week 13.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
It seems impossible, but the Cleveland Browns have gone from
an elite defense to forcing just 1 interception from opposing
quarterbacks in the entire season. Between Weeks 6 and 11 they
gave up a pair of touchdown passes to five consecutive quarterbacks.
That streak was finally broken against Russell Wilson and the
Steelers last week, in a game where the weather was a major factor.
Enter Bo Nix, who has thrown at least 2 touchdowns in three consecutive
games and six of the last eight. Nix is flirting with QB1 status
regularly, and while the Browns have not had their top blown off
by opposing quarterbacks, they have supported a high floor, making
Nix one of the safer options on the lower end of the QB1 conversation.
Meanwhile, coming off a 2-touchdown performance, Courtland Sutton
draws a Browns defense that has allowed the 5th most touchdowns
to opposing wide receivers. Nix and Sutton have found their connection
after a miserable start, and Sutton is a well deserving high-end
WR2 for this matchup.
Devaughn Vele, drafted in the 7th round this year, was a surprising
factor in the Broncos opening game this year, recording 8 receptions.
After being inactive for four weeks, he returned to the lineup
and put up a 4-78-0 line, but then faded for the next three weeks.
He’s come back to life over the last three, averaging 62
yards and recording at least 4 receptions in each game. He also
found the end zone for the first time in his short career during
a Week 10 loss to the Chiefs. Of note during Vele’s re-emergence
has been his snap rate, which has now matched or exceeded 65%
in each of the last three weeks. Drawing a Browns secondary that
has struggled, Vele is worth a look for those in need of flex
help in deeper leagues.
After rushing for negative 2 yards on 8 carries last week, it’s
completely clear that Williams is not safe to start at this time,
even if you’re in a bind. The Browns, carrying the league’s
8th toughest run defense against backs, make that truth even firmer.
The seemingly random RB rotation from week-to-week in this offense,
makes all the Denver running backs untrustworthy.
