With the Raiders running a majority of their offense through
Jacobs and Adams, it’s difficult to find other fantasy plays on
this team to feel good about. Carr has thrown at least two touchdowns
in five consecutive games and he won’t have Aaron Donald breathing
down his neck as the all-world defensive lineman is out with a
sprained ankle. The Rams have given up back-to-back 300-yard passing
games to Geno Smith and Patrick Mahomes. Carr doesn’t provide
much of a ceiling due to his lack of rushing stats, but does provide
a safe floor in a matchup up against a team that’s looking forward
to the off-season.
It’s been a while since Hollins had his blow-up game (Wk3) when
he posted an 8-158-1 line on 10 targets against the Titans. Since
then, the Raiders No.2 receiver has mostly been an afterthought
outside of a WR2 performance in Week 12 (4-63-1) against the Seahawks.
One thing we know about Hollins is he will be on the field… he’s
played 94% of the offensive snaps this season as the Raiders use
a very tight rotation in their wide receiver group and there’s
no indication that Hunter Renfrow will return this week. Hollins
is a WR4 dart throw that could pay off in a week with six teams
on bye.
Fade: N/A
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
After giving Kyren Williams the majority of work in Week 12, it
was Akers’ turn in Week 13. He played 72% of the snaps, posting
a 17-60-2 line with only 1 target in the passing game. It would
seem logical that McVay will use Akers as long as the game remains
close but Williams may get the call if the Rams fall into a negative
game-script. I don’t envision a blowout here by the Raiders, but
you will be paying with fire putting Akers into your lineup given
the state of the team and lack of upside this offense has. Flex
option only for Akers this week.
The claim of Baker Mayfield off waivers this week tells you all
you need to know about the Rams 2022 season. It’s off the
rails. As a result, it’s best to avoid this bunch until
further notice. Van Jefferson played every snap last week, which
is something, but you need to be really desperate to consider
him as a WR4. Even with the tight end position as dismal as it
is, it’s tough to recommend Higbee (2-14-0 last week) given
the current quarterback play. The guy still hasn’t found
the endzone this season.
While the Ravens clearly aren’t a better team with Lamar Jackson
(knee) sidelined, Huntley has played well when pressed into duty.
The passing numbers don’t move the needle, but he’s a capable
runner, having averaged nearly 60 yards rushing in the five games
(four starts) he saw extended action a season ago. Pittsburgh
has played better defense of late, leading to three wins in their
last four games, but they’ve struggled to apply pressure -- for
the year, their 22 sacks rank 24th in the NFL. Huntley could find
room to operate and appears playable as a low-end QB1.
Dobbins hasn’t played since Oct. 16 due to his surgically repaired
knee, but he returned to practice last week and has a good shot
of being active for Week 14. Edwards had worked as the No. 1 back
in his absence initially, though last week he played just 17 snaps,
compared to 34 for Kenyan Drake, after having a critical fumble
in their Week 12 loss to Jacksonville. There’s once again a lot
of uncertainty surrounding Baltimore’s backfield between Huntley’s
insertion, Dobbins’ health, and the team’s confidence level in
Edwards. While one of the Ravens’ RBs could deliver this Sunday,
none should be viewed as more than a risky flex.
Fade: N/A
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Following a very slow start to his sophomore season, Harris has
stepped things up considerably over the past month, rushing for
more than 85 yards in three of the last four games -- the lone
exception being the Monday Night win over the Colts in which he
was banged up and played just 20 snaps. He played 43 snaps a week
ago, which was nearly double of Jaylen Warren (13) and Benny Snell
(9) combined. His disappearance from the passing game affects
his value, but half of his six TDs this year have come in the
past three weeks. He’s a shaky RB2 or strong RB3 here.
Coming off a year in which he posted a 107-1161-8 line, Johnson
has been among the top non-injury disappointments in fantasy football
this season. It’s not all his fault, to be sure, but there are
only so many ways you can spin 565 yards and no touchdowns entering
the second week of December. If you’re looking for encouraging
signs, his usage has ticked up recently with 19 targets over the
past two games. That’s more than double that of George Pickens,
who has eight. Although he’s still no better than a WR3, he's
the best non-Freiermuth choice associated with the Steelers passing
game.
Ever since a six-catch, 61-yard, one-score effort against Miami
on Oct. 23, Pickens has managed just 11 receptions for 174 yards
and one TD over his last five outings. The Steelers have recommitted
to the running and short-passing games during that time, and the
rookie has fallen behind Freiermuth and Johnson in the pecking
order. He had a sideline outburst in Week 13 that drew some attention,
so we’ll see if that leads to an uptick in his involvement.
The safe play is to keep Pickens benched.
A steady high-floor play for most of the season’s first
two months, Cousins has been in a bit of a funk recently, passing
for less than 200 yards twice in the past four games and one TD
or fewer in three of them. The lone exception during this run
was his 299-yard, 3-TD effort against the Patriots on Thanksgiving.
To be fair, however, the veteran has faced four of the better
defenses in NFL in that span (Buffalo, Dallas, New England, and
the Jets), so seeing Detroit should feel like a reprieve. The
Lions have been better of late, but Cousins threw for 260 yards
and a pair of scores in their Week 3 meeting, and he looks like
a midrange QB1 for the rematch.
Already well below Jefferson on the pecking order, Thielen now
feels like the No. 3 option behind Hockenson, having posted just
two catches in two of his last three games. While that’s
not an encouraging trend, the 32-year-old did tally a 6-61-1 line
against the Lions in the first game, which stands as one of his
top efforts of 2022. While no longer a safe weekly option, Thielen
could still deliver WR3 value this Sunday in what might prove
to be a high-scoring affair.
Fade: N/A
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Ever since throwing for 378 yards and 4 TDs in a Week 4 loss
to Seattle, Goff had averaged 222 yards, 0.8 TDs, and 0.6 INTs
across seven starts entering last Sunday. He broke out in a big
way, passing for 340 yards and a pair of scores in the Lions’
40-14 pounding of Jacksonville. At 5-7, the Lions still have a
shot at the playoffs, but they’ll need to knock off the
Vikings this Sunday. Minnesota ranks last in pass defense (283.6
yards per game) but have been good at holding teams to field goals.
With a suddenly healthy receiving corps, Goff is a playable QB1.
After serving as the lead back for most of 2022, Williams took
a backseat to Swift last Sunday, marking only the second time
since Week 2 that Swift had played more snaps. The touches also
tilted to Swift, who had 18 to Williams’ 11. The assumption
here is that Detroit finally felt their star back was healthy
enough for a bigger workload, which pushes Swift back into no-brainer
territory. Williams is still pretty close, but he should be viewed
as more of an RB3 or flex candidate against the Vikings.
While Goff gets the favorite nod this Sunday, the receivers not
named St. Brown get to share the fade designation. Chark is coming
off his best game with the Lions in terms of receptions (5) and
yardage (98), but he’s been inconsistent even when available.
He’s still working well ahead of Reynolds, though, who returned
from a month-plus absence to post just 19 yards on three grabs.
That’s three straight games of less than 20 yards receiving
from Reynolds. Williams made his NFL debut in Week 13, playing
eight snaps. His future may be bright, but the Lions are easing
him in. Maybe you could roll the dice on Chark as a flex. The
other two should be avoided.
The big “If” here has to do with Lawrence’s
health. He went down in the first half of last week’s game
with a toe injury, but was able to come back and gut it out in
the second half. Expectations are he’ll play this week against
a Titans defense that is allowing an average 24.7 fantasy points
per game to opposing QB’s. Even without that, it looks to
me like Lawrence has turned a corner and is beginning to show
signs of benefiting from HC Doug Pederson’s presence on
the sideline. He’s attempted at least 30 passes in six straight
games, has 8 TD passes over his last five games, and before last
week, had a run of three contests where he was completing almost
80% of his passes. He’s a borderline QB1 against Tennessee.
I realize Christian Kirk is the WR1 in this offense, but I love
Jones’ athleticism and his competitiveness around the ball,
and it seems like he has found a home with this team, this system,
and this QB. Prior to last week’s dumpster fire of a game
by the Jags’ offense, he had at least 40 yards in five of
the previous six contests, and had posted back-to-back double-digit
target games, one of which yielded a 145-yard effort. Against
a defense that has been giving it up against the pass I like him
as a WR2.
Etienne has clearly become the workhorse of the offense. But
it seems, at this point, that opposing defenses are focused on
shutting him down and forcing QB Trevor Lawrence to beat them.
So far, it’s working, and combined with a foot injury that
hampered him, he hasn’t rushed for 100 yards in a game since
Week 9. His role in the passing attack hasn’t really evolved
either, so it might be best to sit him, or at least limit expectations
one more week against a strong Titans run D.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
If we’re being honest, there’s not a lot else to
work with here. The Jags have been fairly tough against the run
this season, but Henry has rushed for at least 130 yards in three
of the last four meetings between these teams, and has at least
25 carries in each of the last three. They are going to feed him
the rock, and despite a recent little swoon, he will deliver.
Jacksonville has given up some plays in the passing game, and
Tannehill could be in line for a decent day. But his recent ankle
injury will limit some of his mobility in the pocket at the very
least, which is still an important part of what he does. His success
is also intricately tied to the play of his WR group, which has
been disappointing to this point outside of Treylon Burks’ recent
resurgence. It remains to be seen if Burks (concussion) will play
this week bu it's not looking likely.
Since Week 8, Woods has just one game with more than two receptions,
and he hasn’t danced in the end zone since Week 4. Even
when Treylon Burks was out and Woods had a chance to step up and
answer the bell, he didn’t. It’s been a disappointing
season in an offense that leans on the run.
A difficult Week 13 matchup against the Titans saw running back
Miles Sanders have a down game after his monster performance in
Week 12. Philadelphia was happy to take advantage of the Titans’
pass-funnel defense as they blew Tennessee out while Sanders saw
just 10 carries. He did get into the end zone, making the eighth
time he’s done that over his past nine games, but certainly
we should be expecting better things from him with more volume
here in Week 14. The Giants haven’t given up a 100-yard
runner since Travis Etienne did it against them in Week 7, but
opposing running backs have still been able to produce solid fantasy
numbers against New York over this recent stretch. In fact, including
that game against Etienne, seven different running backs have
gone over 12 fantasy points against the Giants in their past six
games. Only one, Detroit’s Jamaal Williams, had a truly
huge game against them due to his three-touchdown day, but Sanders
is in a good spot to deliver RB2 numbers this week.
Eagles’ wide receiver DeVonta Smith has seen a significant target
share increase since the Eagles lost tight end Dallas Goedert.
He’s averaging nearly a 30 percent target share in the three games
since Goedert went down and he’s now seen at least eight targets
in five of his past six games. Unfortunately, all that volume
in one of the league’s best offenses hasn’t really led to a lot
of big games. However, he is coming off of his second-best fantasy
performance of the season when he went over 100 yards and scored
against the Titans this past week. The Giants are a top-10 most-difficult
matchup for opposing wide receivers this season, but they’re coming
off of back-to-back games against NFC East opponents in which
they’ve allowed multiple wide receivers to go into double-digit
fantasy points against them. This is A.J. Brown’s passing game,
but DeVonta Smith is a strong complementary wide receiver and
should provide viable fantasy numbers in this one.
Philadelphia’s third wide receiver, Quez Watkins, is coming
off of a season-high five receptions in the Eagles’ blowout
win over the Titans. Tennessee’s defensive scheme practically
forces opposing offenses to throw the ball heavily against them
which led to Watkins’ higher-than-normal usage. He’s
now dealing with a shoulder injury that has limited him in practice
this week and he’ll also be facing a Giants defense that
ranks in the top 10 in containing opposing wide receivers in fantasy.
The Eagles offense is excellent and he could get into the end
zone, but otherwise what is Watkins’ realistic upside? Four
catches for 50 yards or so? He’s been fairly decent as a
Flex in deep leagues, but it’s just not worth the risk of
playing him against what has been a fairly good Giants defense.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Darius Slayton tied a season-high with six receptions this past
week against Washington. The Giants’ WR1 has now been targeted
at least six times in five of his past six games, which has corresponded
with him producing at least 11 fantasy points five times over
that same six-game stretch. The Eagles have been quite good against
opposing wide receivers this season, but opposing WR1s have done
fairly well against them in recent weeks. Don’t expect a big “boom”
game from him, but Slayton is a decent WR3/Flex as long as he
continues to be Daniel Jones’ favorite option in the passing game.
Daniel Jones continues to deliver solid fantasy numbers most
weeks, largely due to his rushing ability. He’s hit 50 or more
rushing yards in five different games, while also scoring four
rushing touchdowns along the way. His passing numbers have still
been borderline anemic, but he’s now reached at least 200 yards
through the air in three straight games after having done so just
twice over the Giants’ first nine games. The Eagles have really
only played one truly mobile quarterback this season, which was
Kyler Murray back in Week 5, who ran for 42 yards rushing against
them. Philadelphia has actually given up the third-fewest fantasy
points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, but
if Jones can continue to produce at least decent passing numbers,
combined with his rushing upside, he’s going to continue to provide
borderline QB1 fantasy numbers even against good defenses.
While he hasn’t quite reached “no-brainer” status yet, rookie
wide receiver Garrett Wilson has certainly become a strong starter
for fantasy managers. His connection with quarterback Mike White
has been undeniable as he’s now gone well over 20 fantasy points
in each of his past two games, including Week 13’s monster eight
catch, 162-yard performance on a new career-high 15 targets. With
another heavy passing day likely this week against the Bills,
look for Wilson to again see a high target volume from a quarterback
who loves to target him in and near the end zone.
A 57-pass attempt game from Mike White in Week 13 helped to make
multiple pass catchers viable in that contest, including veteran
wide receiver Corey Davis. Davis saw his highest yardage (85)
and target (10) game of the season against Minnesota and while
the numbers didn’t end up being spectacular, he certainly
reestablished himself as the second option in the Jets’
emerging passing game, behind rookie Garrett Wilson. Davis is
not a must-start by any means, but the Bills are likely to get
out to a lead in this game, which should mean plenty of opportunities
for these New York pass catchers.
Jets running back Zonovan Knight was one of the more exciting
waiver wire additions this past week and he delivered a 118 total-yard
performance on 20 touches for the Jets in their loss to the Vikings.
With fellow running back Michael Carter expected to be back in
the lineup, though, this now becomes another multi-back committee
on a team that Vegas expects to lose by double-digits here in
Week 14. Certainly, one of these backs could get into the end
zone, but if they end up splitting touches relatively equally,
as the coaching staff has implied, then it’s going to be difficult
for either player to really reach their ceiling. Add in the reality
that James Robinson could again be active and the situation becomes
even less appetizing for fantasy.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
If Week 13 was any indication, we may finally be seeing a changing
of the guard in the Buffalo backfield. Rookie James Cook was a
late-round fantasy darling on many rosters as it appeared possible
that he could take over what has been a disappointing Bills backfield
with even just competent play on his part. That didn’t happen
early in the year, but then this past week we saw him out-carry
starter Devin Singletary by one and perhaps most importantly,
we saw him catch six passes—something Singletary has done just
four times in his four-year NFL career. It was assumed that Nyheim
Hines was brought in to be the new pass-catching back in Buffalo
when they acquired him prior to Week 9, but he’s now caught just
two passes over his five games in Buffalo, while Cook is beginning
to establish himself in the passing game. It’s too early to project
that Cook will just take over the backfield entirely, but his
passing game skill set might actually make him a better fantasy
option than Singletary.
If we didn’t know about James Cook’s increased usage
this past week, there really wouldn’t be much to worried
about regarding Devin Singletary. The Buffalo back saw about the
same volume that he normally does in a game that his team won
by multiple scores and he was able to get into the end zone—something
that he’s now done four times over his past four games.
However, Cook’s six receptions in Week 13 were more than
Singletary has had over his past four games combined, and he’s
only topped that total once all season. The reality is that, unless
he scores a touchdown, Singletary is just not giving fantasy managers
enough upside to even be startable in most formats. Of course,
he is delivering those touchdowns more weeks than not as of late,
and the Bills are 10-point favorites in this one, so it wouldn’t
be surprising to see him sneak into the end zone again, but understand
that he could very well deliver another single-point PPR fantasy
day which would be pretty disappointing.
Gabe Davis was able to get into the end zone on one of his two
catches for 15 yards that he had in Week 13, but he was otherwise
pretty pathetic in that contest and the touchdown didn’t
even get him to a double-digit fantasy day. Davis has now been
held to fewer than 12 fantasy points in five of his past six contests,
one of which was against the Jets defense that he’ll be
facing again this weekend. Davis was held to just two catches
for 35 yards in that matchup—his second-lowest point total
thus far in 2022. That was a surprisingly low-scoring contest
and we should expect more from both teams here in Week 14, but
Davis has sort of become just another one of the Bills’
plethora of “non-Stefon-Diggs” pass catchers that
all have to fend for the scraps left over after the superstar
wide receiver eats.
Njoku was a bit of a surprise inactive last Sunday, missing his
third game in the past five due to a knee injury. That it came
after he’d returned in Week 11 was the surprising bit. It appears
it was just a minor setback, however, as Njoku is expected to
practice and play against the Bengals this week. Cleveland’s Monday
Night dismantling of Cincy was one of the original two games that
Njoku missed, and he was also absent for Deshaun Watson’s debut,
so there are plenty of unknowns here. That being said, Njoku should
serve as a nice safety valve for Watson, who struggled in his
return. Plus, at a position so thin in fantasy contributors, Njoku
is a viable TE1.
Seeing his first regular-season action since Jan. 3, 2021, a
span of 28 games, Watson rode the struggle bus against his former
club. The Clemson product connected on just 12 of his 22 passes
for 131 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT. The rust was obvious, and it’ll
be interesting to see how much getting those live reps under his
belt helps Watson toward what the Browns are hoping is a rapid
return to form. For fantasy owners, take the approach that you’ll
believe it when you see it. After watching Cincinnati do a good
job of slowing a red-hot Patrick Mahomes last Sunday, this isn’t
the week to try your luck with Watson.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
With Hayden Hurst (calf) likely to miss this divisional matchup,
Boyd is the clear-cut No. 3 option on the outside behind Chase
and Higgins. As we saw just last week, however, there are times
that Boyd will be on par with at least one of the receivers above
him on the depth chart. In that case, he matched Higgins’ five
targets and finished with four grabs for 60 yards -- the one miss
was a dropped touchdown pass that forced Jim Nantz to use the
word “inconceivable.” As a flex, it’s conceivable Boyd could overdeliver.
Perine has served as the primary back over the past two-plus weeks
as Mixon suffered a concussion in Week 11 and has missed consecutive
games recovering from it. Perine has played well in relief, amassing
330 yards and 4 TDs, but the expectation is that Mixon will return
in Week 14, and the Bengals have shown no inclination to give
Perine many snaps when both backs are up. Expect that to continue
this Sunday, and make sure you get Perine out of your lineup (assuming
Mixon plays).
The once red-hot Dameon Pierce has cooled off in recent weeks,
having been held to fewer than 15 fantasy points in now six straight
games after his four-game stretch of being above that number earlier
in the year. While he did have a two-game stretch with questionable
usage, the Texans finally got back to giving him significant touches
this past week when he carried the ball 18 times and caught three
passes against the Browns in Week 13. Now on the road against
an excellent Dallas defense in Week 14, we should be worried about
Pierce’s efficiency, but his touch totals should again be excellent.
The Texans are expected to be without both top wide receivers
Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins, which will almost certainly lead
to heavy usage for the rookie running back. Look for them to ride
Pierce until the wheels come off in this one.
With Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins expected to be sidelined
this weekend, Houston’s already talent-deficient offense
will have very few options to get the ball to aside from running
back Dameon Pierce. If there’s someone who stands out at
all, it’s probably wide receiver Chris Moore. We’ve
seen him perform earlier this season when the Texans were without
Cooks and Collins, particularly in Week 9 when he caught four
passes for 43 yards and a touchdown against an excellent Philadelphia
defense. He’s a low-floor option without massive upside,
but he should be the top target in Houston's passing game this
week.
Fade: Everyone Else
When Chris Moore is expected to be the top-producing pass catcher
for the week, you know things are in shambles for the Texans.
Houston has been held to 20 or fewer points scored in eight straight
games so there’s just not a lot to get excited about here.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Shared backfields are often extremely frustrating for fantasy
managers, but the 2022 Dallas Cowboys have found a way to make
multiple running backs into viable weekly fantasy starters. Tony
Pollard has really been the star of the show, delivering over
20 fantasy points in now four of his past five games, but veteran
Ezekiel Elliott has also been able to make fantasy managers happy
by producing 15 or more fantasy points in five straight games
played including at least one touchdown in every one of those
contests. This highly productive duo now faces a Houston Texans
defense that ranks dead last in stopping opposing fantasy running
backs, so this looks like a potential smash opportunity for not
just one, but both Dallas tailbacks.
We’ve now seen back-to-back weeks where Michael Gallup
has been a fantasy-relevant wide receiver, marking the first time
he’s done that all season. The Cowboys WR2 caught a pair
of touchdowns this past week during Dallas’ blowout win
over Indianapolis and he’s now seen at least seven targets
in three of his past four games. He’s probably closer to
a “favorite” than a “fade” at this point,
but the Cowboys are by far the biggest betting favorite on the
board this week, so don’t be surprised to see them running
the ball heavily in this one and not relying on their vertical
passing game quite as much.
Ever since Clyde Edwards-Helaire went down with an ankle injury,
the Chiefs have split their running back duties between Pacheco
and Jerick McKinnon. Both have seen similar snap percentages but
it’s Pacheco getting more opportunities (54 to 20), particularly
in the running game where he’s averaged 17 carries over the last
three weeks. Once non-existent in the passing game, the rookie
has a modest three catches in his last two contests. Given the
strength of the Broncos pass defense, I wouldn’t expect a ceiling
game from the Chiefs offense, but there should be enough ground
and pound to make Pacheco a viable RB2.
After six targets in both Week 11 and 12, it seemed like Skyy
Moore might actually become a thing. Then the bagel hit in Week
13 against the Bengals (12 yds rushing) and we’re back searching
for a secondary pass-catcher in this offense. JuJu is probably
the safest bet, but hasn’t eclipsed more than 38 yards the
last three weeks as he works his way back from a concussion. He
has just 2 touchdowns on the season and the spread the wealth
nature of this offense can work against anyone not named Kelce.
JuJu is a viable Flex option in a Mahomes-led offense, but temper
your expectations against a solid coverage unit.
Fade: N/A
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Surprisingly the Broncos are 21st in passing yards per game which
isn’t great, but the considering the vibe around this team, you’d
think they were dead last. What there are dead last in, is passing
touchdowns (8); tied with Pittsburgh for the fewest. And this
why Russell Wilson had his receivers have been terrible fantasy
plays for much of the season. However, there is some life for
Jeudy this week who gets a decent matchup and should vault into
a dominant role in the gameplan with Courtland Sutton likely to
miss with a hamstring injury. There simply isn’t anyone else to
turn to on this offense with the exception of…
The Broncos tight end is on the better skill position players
on the roster so it would make sense to get him more involved
with Sutton down. And to their credit, the Broncos did just that,
as Dulcich saw 8 targets against the Ravens last week converting
them into a 6-85-0 line. Expect to see him lined up all over the
field in an attempt to create mismatches with the Chiefs linebackers
and safeties. He certainly has the ability to beat the Chiefs
in their man-coverage schemes. If the Broncos are going to score
a touchdown through the air this week, it’s likely come
from either Jeudy or Dulcich.
Wilson ranks 26th in quarterback fantasy points per game through
13 weeks (QBs with at least 4 starts). Ouch. That’s going
to happen when you have only 8 TD passes this late in the season.
Murray has 21, 14 and 21 touches his last three games finishing
as the RB13, RB32 and RB28 respectively. He’s a volume based
RB3 with RB2 upside if he’s able to score a highly elusive
Broncos’ touchdown.
Godwin has eight-straight games with at least six catches but
has only topped 100 receiving yards once as the Bucs offense has
shifted towards short and intermediate throws. He has seven games
with double-digit targets and is 99 total targets lead the team.
The missed connections with Mike Evans down the field have contributed
to better PPR numbers for Godwin who is reportedly back to feeling
like his normal self after an ACL injury last season. The 49ers
defense in general has been great but their weak point is the
WR position where the likes of Tyler Lockett, Cooper Kupp, JuJu
Smith-Schuster, Greg Dortch and Tyreek Hill have all had 100-yard
games against them.
Leonard Fournette returned from his hip injury last week and
played roughly 60% of the snaps, including most two-minute drill
situation. Although, it should be noted that the Bucs brough White
into the game for the last play of their game-winning drive and
got him a touchdown. At best, it seems like the two will be splitting
time almost evenly which caps the upside of both players and makes
them middling RB2s on a weekly basis. Given this is worst possible
matchup for fantasy running backs, I’d consider both Tampa
RBs as Flex options in Week 14 with higher value in PPR leagues.
Brady chucked it 54 times last week against the Saints for 281
yards and 2 TDs. As his 5.2 yards per attempt would indicate,
it’s been a struggle for him connecting on the deep ball
with Mike Evans. The short area throws to Chris Godwin and dump-offs
to running backs Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White have become
the norm for this passing offense. That makes good PPR plays out
of those receivers and backs but until Brady starts connecting
on some deeper throws, he going to struggle holding on to low-end
QB1 value. The 49ers defense has only allowed 11 passing TDs on
the season and only Patrick Mahomes has topped 300 yards against
them. I’d be steering clear of Brady this week if I could.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
With Elijah Mitchell back on the shelf, the 49ers chose to add
a few more touches to Christian McCaffrey’s plate rather than
expanding the role of Jordan Mason or integrate Tyrion Davis-Price.
They also kept Deebo involved in the running game by giving him
four attempts (5 yds) to go along with 10 targets. He should be
the offensive focus moving forward and the least likely of the
two starting receivers to put up a bad game if Brock Purdy continues
to display the accuracy inconsistencies he showed last week.
The 49ers lost Jimmy Garoppolo early in last week’s game which
resulted in a lot of work for Christian McCaffrey (25 touches).
I expect a similar gameplan against the Bucs with fewer pass attempts
which means less receiving volume for Brandon Aiyuk. His 9 targets
from Brock Purdy last week resulted in 5 catches and 46 yards.
His 82 catches still lead the team but the shift in starting quarterback
could signal more reliance on Deebo and McCaffrey. Aiyuk was a
comfortable WR2 most of the season but should probably be viewed
more as a Flex option moving forward.
It’s no secret that Carolina would prefer to pound the
ball with Foreman as long as the game flow doesn’t get out
of hand. The Panthers starting running back has 24-plus carries
in three times in his last five games including 26 carries in
a narrow loss to the Falcons in Week 8 (37-34). Foreman suffered
a foot injury in Week 12 and has been limited in practice this
week, but the expectation is he’s going to play. He mentioned
to reporters earlier in the week that he was 95% certain he was
going to play. Assuming he does play, the matchup is juicy as
the Seahawks have had trouble stopping opposing running backs,
giving up five 100-yard rushing games on the season.
Moore is the unquestioned No.1 target among the receiving group
but target numbers of 6, 5, 6, and 6 the last four games doesn’t
inspire a lot of confidence. It certainly caps your upside. He
got out of a three-game drought in Week 12 with a 4-103-1 line
against a tough Denver secondary so there is proof he can get
there on efficiency. The other wider receivers don’t see
enough volume to be fantasy relevant… same goes the tight
end position, so Moore’s WR2 value is probably safe even
in a not-so-great matchup.
It wasn’t pretty for Darnold in his first start of the
season against a difficult Denver defense back in Week 12. The
result (11 of 19, 164-1-0) with a 58% completion rate was to be
expected. A softer Seattle defense should provide some relief
in theory but this offense will be dictated by their running game
and frankly, the team lacks weapons on the perimeter outside of
D.J. Moore and they don’t seem intent on throwing to their
tight ends over the middle. Even with six teams on bye, you can
find a better QB2.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
The storybook season for Geno Smith continues with another solid
performance last week against the Rams. Three more passing TDs
and 367 yards through the air, good for a QB3 fantasy finish.
There’s no reason for the Seahawks to let off the Geno gas now
as their main running back Kenneth Walker is likely to miss this
week’s game with a jammed ankle. Of course, as Geno goes, so goes
his receivers. The concentration of targets for Metcalf and Lockett
makes it easy on fantasy owners to deploy these two in their lineups
as WR2s.
Update: Kenneth
Walker and DeeJay Dallas are expected to sit.
With Kenneth Walker (ankle) and DeeJay Dallas (ankle) likely to
miss this game we could Travis Homer in a significant role against
the Panthers with Tony Jones likely to be used in a complementary
role. Homer plays well in the pass game and should fit right in
if the Seahawks choose to ride Geno Smith instead of their running
attack. This game could turn ugly as Carolina’s defense is a bit
underrated, but Homer is worth a look as a Flex option given we
have six teams on a bye.
Tua has been on a nice five-game stretch that’s seen him finish
as the QB1, QB4, QB4, bye, QB17 and QB7 since Week 8. Having a
couple speedsters like Hill and Waddle certainly helps, along
with a head coach that’s willing to scheme to their offensive
strengths. Even hitting an efficiency road bump last week (18-33)
known as the 49ers defense, Tua was able to manage 295 yards and
2 TDs. We need to keep an eye on Waddle’s health as he left last
week with a leg injury and later returned but finished with his
lowest output of the season (1-9-0) on five targets. Assuming
he’s good to go, expect a return to normalcy against a Chargers-D
that just got wrecked by Davante Adams (8-177-2) a week ago.
In his press conference this week, Mike McDaniel was lamenting
not getting his running backs more touches in last week’s
game which saw Wilson and Mostert combine for 8 touches against
their former team (SF). That can happen when the game flow turns
negative as it did in Miami’s 33-17 loss to the 49ers. Also
noteworthy, was Raheem Mostert played 61% of the snaps compared
to Wilson’s 37%. This is a shift from what we’ve seen
in recent weeks when Wilson has been the lead back. All of this
uncertainty can create headaches for fantasy owner trying to decipher
who is the correct play. The Chargers have given up seven 100-yard
rushing games this season so if McDaniel chooses to give his RBs
more work this week, it should pay off. Hopefully we get a clearer
picture of who the lead back might be before kickoff.
The Dolphins tight end has exactly 1 target in each of the last
two games and is getting out-snapped by Durham Smythe. Any pass-catcher
outside of Hill and Waddle are off limits in this offense.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
With a healthy game total of 51.5 both quarterbacks should have
a solid, low-end QB1 floor, including Herbert who’s averaged
296 passing yards his last three games. He’s been a fringe
QB1 this season with fewer spiked weeks than we saw just a season
ago which can be attributed to his early-season rib injury. That
injury is in the rearview mirror and we should be getting the
best Herbert down the stretch. Keenan Allen has scored in back-to-back
weeks and saw a healthy 14 targets last week against the Raiders.
His catch rate was underwhelming (just 6 receptions) but there’s
no mistaken who the lead receiver is on this team.
Palmer has been a nice fill-in much of the season, especially
in PPR leagues, when Mike Williams and Keenan Allen have been
sidelined by injury. He now has double-digit targets in four games
including last week against the Raiders. Mike Williams (ankle)
is back practicing this week which could give Herbert and the
offense a needed boost should he be able to play effectively,
but would be a downgrade for Palmer’s fantasy stock. Keep a close
on Big-Mike’s status through the weekend and adjust your assessment
of Palmer accordingly.
The Patriots aren’t afraid to ride Stevenson when Damien Harris
is sidelined by injury. Just look at last week when Rhamondre
played all but one snap against the Bills. Kevin Harris got in
the game and promptly botched a play and was immediately back
on the bench. Harris injured his thigh in Week 12 and with this
game being Monday night, we’ll have to keep close eye on his practice
status this weekend. Assuming he’s out, then it’s wheels up for
Rhamondre in a workhorse role where he’s averaged 7 targets in
his last six games. He’s a PPR dream.
If you’re searching for a tight end play, Henry is a middling
tight end (as most are) but he has the best matchup of the week.
The Cardinals have allowed the most fantasy points, the most yards
and touchdowns to the position.
If you watched last week’s game against the Bills you may have
caught Mac Jones screaming about the play-calling on the sidelines.
Bill Belichick isn’t one to grease the squeaky wheel but it may
be the right move this week against the Cardinals. Arizona is
tied with Kansas City for the most passing TDs allowed (24) and
10th in passing yards allowed (3073). It’s rare that the Patriots
take a pass-heavy approach as Jones has just two 300-yard games
under his belt this season, but a couple quick scores from the
Cardinals early in this game could force New England’s hand.
Update: Jakobi
Meyers is Out. DeVante Parker is viable.
Fade: Patriots’ WRs
Jakobi Meyers
missed practice on Friday with a head injury. He’s the only reliable
wide receiver in this offense as the Patriots love to use a plethora
of players at the position. If Meyers does play, he could be a
decent flex option, but in that scenario, I’d stay away from DeVante
Parker, Nelson
Agholor, Kendrick
Bourne and Tyquan
Thornton as their roles and usage could change at a moment’s
notice.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
In all likelihood, if the Cardinals are going to pull off a victory
in this game it’s going to come from the arm and feet of Murray.
The Arizona QB has three-straight games with at least two touchdown
passes and another score on the ground against the Chargers in
Week 12. He’s got Marquise Brown back from injury giving the offense
another play-maker while Rondale Moore (groin) missed practice
on Thursday and remains questionable for Monday night. Greg Dortch
appears ready to play after his thumb injury kept him out Week
12.
Beginning Week 10, Conner has played 96%, 78% and 97% of the running
back snaps on offense, averaging 23 touches per game. That’s the
kind of usage we want to see from our fantasy running backs and
the team hasn’t shown any indication they want to give backup
Keaontay Ingram a larger role. Standing in the way of Conner have
a good game is the Patriots defense that has given up just two
rushing TDs and three TDs overall to the position. If Belichick
can focus on shutting down Hopkins without sacrificing his ability
to stop the run, then we could see a sub-standard performance
from Conner this week.
With Zach Ertz out, the rookie tight end is playing a healthy
number of snaps but him being on the field hasn’t translated
to production in the box score. McBride has just 6 catches for
22 yards since Week 10 and with Marquise Brown back on the field,
the tight end position is now fourth in the pecking order for
targets.
