Passing
Game Thoughts: Despite a terrible season from Marcus Mariota
and their passing game, the Titans narrowly sneaked into the playoffs
and will face an intriguing fantasy matchup here on Wildcard weekend
against the Chiefs. Kansas City has been playing well against
the pass down the stretch but much of that has to be attributed
to the poor opposing passing games that they’ve been matched
up against. Even still, the Chiefs have conceded at least one
touchdown pass in 12 of their past 13 games, giving Mariota a
double-digit floor in this game. While tight end Delanie Walker
is normally one of the better plays on the board, he does have
a tough matchup here, facing the Chiefs and their sixth-ranked
fantasy defense against the tight end position. Kansas City gave
up just three touchdowns to the position throughout the regular
season -- tied for second-fewest in the league, and they’ve
held their last two opponents’ tight ends to just 26 total
yards with no scores. Instead, where Kansas City has been exploited
is by wide receivers. The Chiefs have given up the most fantasy
points to opposing wide receivers this season, including a whopping
eight games of 40-plus PPR points to the position. This bodes
well for the Titans’ pass catchers, namely Eric Decker who
has been playing primarily out of the slot and will likely avoid
much attention from cornerback Marcus Peters. Rishard Matthews
will likely see Peters most while Corey Davis plays the opposite
side on the outside in what could be a good matchup, but he has
yet to prove himself as a quality fantasy asset this season.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Running Game Thoughts: With DeMarco Murray out this week, Derrick
Henry will again shoulder the load for the Titans in what could
be another heavy usage game. Henry’s rushing yardage was
horrendous in his grinding Week 17 game against a tough Jaguars
defense but he made up for it with a long receiving touchdown,
thus covering up the negative perception that would’ve almost
certainly followed him into the playoffs. Henry is one of the
few true “workhorse” backs that’s playing on
Wild Card weekend but he’ll be against a top-10 fantasy
run defense that gave up just one 100-yard rusher on the season
- Le’Veon Bell back in Week 6. Henry’s best chance
to make an impact on the fantasy scoreboard is by scoring a touchdown,
which his skill set certainly indicates he could do, provided
that the Chiefs don’t get too far ahead on the scoreboard.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Titans were one of the league’s
worst pass defenses through their first 10 games but they’ve
been improving down the stretch. Tennessee gave up just six passing
touchdowns over their final six games of the regular season, and
four of those touchdowns came in one game against Jared Goff in
Week 16. Of course, the quality of opponent hasn’t been
great, but Tennessee seems to be playing better now than they
were early in the year. That doesn’t exactly bode well for
quarterback Alex Smith who has not been great from a fantasy standpoint
over the second half of the season, posting just two multiple-touchdown
games since the team’s Week 10 bye. The good thing about
Smith, however, is that he continues to key in on his top two
pass catchers, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, who both finished
as elite fantasy options at their position.
Kelce caught at least three passes in all but one game this season
prior to sitting in Week 17 when the Chiefs had nothing to play
for, and he finished as either the No.1 or No.2 tight end in fantasy
depending on your scoring system. He’s one of the few tight
ends who has the potential to post WR1 numbers in any matchup.
The Titans have been vulnerable this season against opposing wide
receivers, having given up 11 double-digit fantasy days (non-PPR)
to the position during the regular season, but what’s interesting
is that they’ve actually done a decent job of shutting down
the deep passing attack. Some of that is likely due to the breakout
season from safety Kevin Byard, but it’s also a schematic
approach which does not necessarily favor a player like Hill who
is one of the biggest home run hitters in the league. Hill does
get enough volume that he’ll probably still be a quality
fantasy option this week but the Titans might end up floating
extra coverage in his direction which could lead to another higher-than-expected
target volume for Albert Wilson, who has been targeted 19 times
over the past two weeks and does make for a sneaky low-priced
shot-in-the-dark-type DFS play.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Running Game Thoughts: The Chiefs started the season by feeding
the ball to Kareem Hunt and they got off to an impressive 5-0
start, only to deviate from that approach in the middle of the
season, which perhaps coincidentally coincided with a rough losing
patch. They’ve gone back to what worked early in the season
as of late, and now it’s reasonable to think that Kareem
Hunt will be again in line for a 20-plus touch day here in the
Wildcard round. Hunt broke off a 35-yard touchdown on his only
carry in Week 17 which allowed him to finish the season as the
NFL’s leading rusher, as a rookie, and a top five overall
running back for fantasy purposes. With that score, Hunt has now
reached the end zone at least once in each of his past four games
after a nine-game no-touchdown streak in the middle of the season.
The Titans have been a great run defense all season and have
given up just one 100-yard rushing day (Todd Gurley in Week 16)
but they’ve otherwise held almost every runner they’ve
faced in check. Still, given that this is the playoffs and the
Chiefs are a heavy home favorite, there’s a good shot that
Hunt delivers solid fantasy value this week and he should be considered
a top-four option at the position for the week.
Passing
Game Thoughts: Matt Ryan and the Falcons avoided a Super
Bowl hangover by sneaking into the playoffs as the sixth seed
and final wildcard team after defeating the Panthers 20-10 in
Week 17.
Although Ryan and the Falcons offense technically avoided a Super
Bowl hangover with a second consecutive playoff berth, the Atlanta
offense was a far cry of the unit that led the league in scoring
last year with 540 points. The Falcons scored 187 fewer points
as Matt Ryan suffered negative regression to the mean after his
MVP season, and Julio Jones continued to be one of the most disappointing
touchdown producers (only three TDs) despite finishing with 1444
yards on 88 receptions.
A consensus top 6 QB pick on most draft boards this summer, Ryan
did not live up to expectations with 20 passing touchdowns, 12
interceptions, and 4095 passing yards. His 18.7 points per game
placed him 22nd overall in points per game, behind fantasy stalwarts
like Josh McCown, C.J. Beathard, Blake Bortles, and Jimmy Garoppolo.
When you consider the fact that Ryan scored 111 fewer points this
year than last, the reigning MVP should garner serious consideration
as the most disappointing fantasy quarterback in 2017.
With the regular season behind him, Ryan will look to start fresh
in the playoffs against a Los Angeles team that ended the regular
season allowing the 24th-most points to opposing quarterbacks.
The Rams closed out the final month of the year allowing the sixth-most
points to quarterbacks, including a four-touchdown performance
by Carson Wentz and the Eagles Week 14. Ryan will need to put
up similar numbers against the Rams on Saturday for the Falcons
to have any chance of keeping pace with the league’s top
scoring offense.
On the injury front, three of Ryan’s favorite targets in
the passing game were limited with injuries on Wednesday, as Devonta
Freeman (knee), Julio Jones (ankle/ribs), and Taylor Gabriel (hamstring)
all were limited participants on the team’s official injury
report. All three players, including starting center Alex Mack
(Calf), are expected to play against the Rams.
Freeman will be a critical player for the Falcons in both the
running and passing game, as the primary way teams found success
moving the ball vs. Los Angeles this season was on the ground
(Rams allowed the second-most points to opposing RBs). No.1 wide
receivers also found some success versus Wade Phillips’
defensive unit, with DeAndre Hopkins, Pierre Garcon, Dez Bryant,
Larry Fitzgerald, and Alshon Jeffery all reaching close to 100
yards and/or a touchdown against Los Angeles.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Running Game Thoughts: Only the Buffalo Bills allowed more points
to opposing running backs in 2017, and only four teams allowed
more rushing yards than the Rams, a group that boasts one of the
best defensive lineman in Aaron Donald and a linebacking corps
led by Alec Ogletree.
The Falcons do not have the offensive firepower to keep pace
with the Rams and their defensive unit that allowed the 25th-most
points will struggle to contain Todd Gurley and Jared Goff. The
best course of action for Dan Quinn and the Falcons is to attempt
to control time of possession and limit the number of touches
for Gurley and Goff while limiting the number of big plays by
the Los Angeles offense.
The tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman finished the
regular season scorning the 8th most fantasy points, just .8 points
per game behind the No.6 ranked Los Angeles Chargers backfield.
Freeman averaged 11.9 points per game to finish as the No.11 ranked
running back in fantasy, while Coleman took a step back from his
2016 season to end 2017 as the No.22 ranked running back at 9.4
points per game.
The two tailbacks combined for 63 receptions for 616 yards and
four receiving touchdowns this season. Their shared ability to
catch passes out of the backfield and create yardage in space
will be an important weapon for Ryan as he faces a pass rush that
finished No.4 in the league with 48 sacks.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Sean McVay effect in Los Angeles has
been nothing short of miraculous, as the first year head coach
took the league’s worst scoring offense in 2016 and turned
it into the highest scoring unit in 2017. Jared Goff went from
an awkward looking first round bust to the No.12 ranked fantasy
quarterback, with 28 touchdowns and 3809 passing yards, to go
along with and just seven interceptions. The second-year quarterback
from Cal threw the same number of interceptions as in his rookie
season, but on 273 more pass attempts. Goff increased his completion
percentage from a pathetic 54.6% clip in 2016 to a respectable
62.1%, and his yards per attempt (7.98) trails only Drew Brees
and Alex Smith.
Improvements to the offensive line, including the addition of
pro-bowl left tackle Andrew Whitworth, played a significant role
in the dramatic improvement of the Rams’ offense in 2017.
The offensive line went from one of the worst units in football
last season to the No.3 ranked run blocking, and No.9 ranked pass
blocking line according to footballoutsiders.com.
Perhaps the most dramatic development in the passing game, and
an indictment to the ineptitude of Jeff Fisher as a head coach
was the evolution of running back Todd Gurley in the passing game.
The former first-round pick from Georgia matched his career total
of receptions from his previous two seasons with 64 catches for
788 yards and six touchdowns. Gurley scored more fantasy points
as a receiver than Amari Cooper in 2017, and when added to his
league-leading 1305 rushing yards and 13 rushing touchdowns, Gurley
proved to be the league-winning fantasy MVP for 2017.
There is little to suggest that Goff and Gurley will not be able
to continue their breakout season on Saturday against the Falcons.
Atlanta finished the season as the No.9 ranked defense in yards
allowed, but they did give up the 14th most points to opposing
quarterbacks, and 11 different wide receivers managed to score
double-digit points against the Atlanta secondary.
No other team in the league allowed more receptions to running
backs out of the backfield than the Falcons, making Todd Gurley
and his ability to dominate as a pass-catching back a red flag
for Dan Quinn and his defense. Quinn may opt to spy Gurley with
linebacker Deion Jones or strong safety Ricardo Allen, but that
may backfire and give Goff the ability to attack the middle of
the field with Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Running Game Thoughts: Todd Gurley jumped from the No.30 running
back in fantasy points per game in 2016 (9.8) to the No.1 fantasy
player in 2017 (21.6). His return to the dominant player that
he flashed as a rookie made him the fantasy MVP for 2017 and a
league winner for anyone fortunate enough to land him in drafts
last summer. The former Georgia Bulldog scored at least 11 fantasy
points in every game this season but one, and his 81.6 points
in the playoffs single-handedly secured the title for his owners.
Although Atlanta finished the regular season strong as the third-best
defense in limiting fantasy points to opposing running backs over
the past three games, there is no reason to think that Gurley
will not have a monster day in the Rams first home playoff game
in over 20 years.
Look for Gurley to get a big chunk of his yardage in the air
and not on the ground against a Falcons unit that allowed only
one 100-yard rusher in 2017. Only Jay Ajayi of the Dolphins (before
getting traded to Philly) managed to reach the century mark against
the Falcons, but no other defensive unit allowed more receptions
than the Falcons.
On the injury front, Atlanta enters the game relatively healthy
on defense, with pass rushing specialist Adrian Clayborn as the
only Falcon listed on the team’s official report. His calf
injury limited him at practice on Wednesday, but he is fully expected
to play on Saturday.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Bills’ path to the postseason
was a tumultuous one. Sean McDermott does not deserve this after
unceremoniously benching Tyrod Taylor for the awful Nate Peterman
resulting in a loss that, if not for the Baltimore Ravens’
sudden inability to play defense, would have cost the Bills the
sixth and final playoff spot. But the Bills are here and Taylor
certainly earned every bit of this opportunity. Unfortunately,
his reward is a trip to Jacksonville to face the best defense
in the league. The Bills (+8.5) are tied with the Titans as Wild
Card Weekend’s biggest underdog, which bodes well for Taylor’s
chances of throwing a lot of passes, but not so well for his overall
success in completing them. Jalen Ramsey and A.J. Bouye are the
best cornerback duo in the league and will have no trouble locking
down Kelvin Benjamin and whichever of Deonte Thompson and Zay
Jones lines up outside. Charles Clay makes the most sense to continue
leading the team in targets. He has 27 over his past three games
and the Bills’ best shot at attacking the Jaguars is via
the slot and the tight end. Clay is the only Bill worth starting
in daily lineups and I would not consider any Bill in full playoff
leagues.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Running Game Thoughts: The “not consider any Bill”
approach applies to the running backs as well. Aside from the
fact that it is unlikely the Bills play more than just this game,
LeSean McCoy is highly questionable with an ankle injury. Ultimately,
since this is a playoff game, I expect McCoy to be active. His
effectiveness with an injured ankle remains to be seen. He relies
heavily on his cutting ability and an injured ankle severely hinders
his explosiveness. The Bills absolutely need Shady to have any
shot at winning. If McCoy simply cannot move well enough to play
at a productive level, Mike Tolbert and Marcus Murphy will shoulder
the load. Neither of them should even be remotely considered in
any format. Even if McCoy is healthy enough to play and we know
in advance, he still can’t be trusted to play a full game
making him a poor option for full playoff leagues or daily lineups.
Passing
Game Thoughts: The Jaguars being 8.5 point favorites is
not good for the passing game. This team has a championship caliber
roster except for one position – quarterback. I firmly believe
that Blake Bortles is going to be the reason the Jaguars inevitably
fail to reach the Super Bowl. It won’t happen this week
though, as Doug Marrone will do what he’s done all season
and hide Bortles. The game plan will be to get a lead and sit
it on it. The Jaguars should be able to do just that with Bortles
attempting somewhere around just 20 passes. It makes starting
guys like Keelan Cole and Dede Westbrook exceedingly difficult.
Neither is a strong playoff long option, but Cole is a viable
contrarian daily play as the best receiver on the Jaguars and
the one most likely to produce when Bortles does actually throw.
Given that the Jaguars will likely play two games, you could take
a shot on Cole in full playoff leagues, but I would not recommend
it. With Allen Hurns also back in the fold and Marqise Lee being
reported as likely to suit up, there are too many options and
not enough volume to play any of these guys.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Running Game Thoughts: One of opening weekend’s best plays
is Leonard Fournette. He fits perfectly into the Jaguars’
plans. With the regular season over and every game of the utmost
importance, there’s no more protecting Fournette. He will
handle all the work he can. I would not be shocked if he touched
the ball 30 times in a game I expect the Jaguars to lead wire
to wire. Fournette is your best bet for a touchdown at the RB
position this week (well, him and Todd Gurley). But you’re
only getting one. Fournette played in 13 games this season, scoring
a touchdown in nine of them and only scoring a second touchdown
in a single game. Another underrated aspect of Fournette’s
game is his pass catching ability. He’s been replaced by
T.J. Yeldon frequently in passing situations, but has still maintained
a solid floor in the passing game, catching at least one pass
in every game he’s played and at least three in each of
his final five games. Fournette is the total package this weekend.
He’s playing at home as a heavy favorite for a team that
wants to run as much as possible and is the goal line back. With
the Jaguars all but certain to play at least two games, Fournette
is an elite daily option and a strong playoff long option as well.
Passing
Game Thoughts: If you have ever played sports you might
have run into the same situation as the Panthers. Meeting for
the third time, in the post-season and your team has not won either
of the first two contests. Cam Newton’s three interception
game against the Falcons in Week 17 certainly helped the Panthers
lose the division and find themselves on the road this week. It’s
a big shift considering they are now also playing one of the best
quarterback-coach pairings in the league. They are not only underdogs
in Vegas but for fantasy purposes as well.
Cam Newton represents one of the streakiest fantasy quarterbacks
available this post-season. I might sound like a broken record
but the combination of poor accuracy combined with limited passing
attempts makes me leery of using Newton in my playoff lineup.
At 30.8 passing attempts per game during the regular season, Newton’s
opportunity for fantasy success is completely reliant on touchdowns
and added value in the rushing game. Over the past six weeks,
Newton only has one rushing score to his name so fantasy managers
deciding whether or not to play Newton this week should really
look at his touchdown upside. Those prospects go way up with TE
Greg Olsen suiting up for the first time this year against the
Saints. Olsen and Newton only connected on one of nine passes
a week ago but I doubt they will be as disappointing this weekend.
Despite receiving plenty of targets, Olsen’s return from
injury has been shaky and the Saints have been the fifth toughest
defense against opposing fantasy tight ends in 2017. In a normal
week I’d probably find an alternative but he remains one
of the best fantasy bets at the position not named Travis Kelce
on a four-game slate. The shine might be fading from Devin Funchess’
breakout fantasy campaign but his usefulness remains. The team
has been resting him during the week while dealing with a shoulder
injury but he suits up on gameday and usually comes through with
a decent WR2 effort. Having both Funchess and Olsen available
pushes Cam Newton into the start category for me. I hate the downside,
but in the smaller pool of playoff fantasy formats ceiling matters
more.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Running Game Thoughts: Jonathan Stewart (back) was limited in
practice Wednesday but all indications are that he will play this
weekend. He’s hardly a solid fantasy option but has RB2
potential any given week. The veteran is signed through the 2018
season but figures to see less work in the future so expect him
to run hard when he is given the rock. New Orleans has seen their
rush defense decline towards the end of the regular season yielding
over 20 standard fantasy points per game over the past three games.
If Stewart can find a way to punch one into the end zone on Sunday
his peripheral stats should be good enough to give him top 8 potential.
That might be wishful thinking but given the limited number of
running backs to choose from a rested Stewie shouldn’t be
overlooked. Christian McCaffrey was a mild disappointment a week
ago after gaining only 54 total yards on eleven touches. His presence
in the backfield allows the Panthers to do so many things that
he is one of the safest bets to get both touches and yards this
week. The Saints have given up four touchdowns to opposing running
backs over the past three games with two of them coming via the
pass. It’s a good situation for McCaffrey so give him moderate
upside with his already high floor.
Passing
Game Thoughts: After jockeying with the Carolina Panthers
throughout the year, the NFC South Division title finally went
to the Saints after 17 weeks. That’s nice for record keeping
purposes but bragging rights won’t mean much if New Orleans
can’t get by them when the game matters most. The good news
is New Orleans has only lost one game in the Superdome this year-way
back in Week 2 against the Patriots. Additionally, they have won
their past five home playoff games with their last loss in the
Superdome coming in 1992. The bad news is that it is very tough
beating a playoff caliber opponent three times in the same year.
If the Panthers want to win this game they really need to get
pressure on the quarterback. Drew Brees has been a technician
at dissecting defenses all season finishing the regular season
with a career best completion percentage of 72.1 percent. He’s
been slightly better (47 of 63) in his two outings versus Carolina
this year and hasn’t posted less than 15 fantasy points
at home in the past three years. Perhaps the one stat that sticks
out the most with Brees this year is the fact he has thrown for
the fifth most first downs in the NFL despite ranking only 18th
passing attempts per game. He is a high floor fantasy option that
has seen less volume due to the improved defense. Being Drew Brees’
top receiver in the passing game has long been a favorable fantasy
asset and this year was no different. Michael Thomas now has two
regular seasons under his belt and he has finished both seasons
as a top 10 fantasy receiver. He’ll continue to ride that
success into the post season and is a no brainer for fantasy managers
in one-week playoff formats as well as playoff-long fantasy rosters.
Ted Ginn Jr. opened the year averaging 17.65 yards per catch through
his first eight weeks of the year but that number has dropped
to 10.87 in his previous seven games. As noted above, Brees’
efficiency has decreased the overall targets in the passing game
and that makes Ginn a liability in the fake game. As the third
option behind Thomas and Alvin Kamara, Ginn falls into the Flex
category despite being a starter in a quality offense. Brandon
Coleman has three touchdowns in six career games against the Panthers
but only one has come at home and he has seen more than four targets
in a game only twice this season.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Running Game Thoughts: Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram have each
had one good and one great game against Carolina this season.
It shouldn’t be a big surprise to know both players did
better in their home matchup. That bodes well for their chances
this week and makes them popular choices across all formats for
this round of the playoffs. Carolina has been tough against the
run all year and hasn’t allowed a rushing score over its
past three games. Ingram has been bottled up against solid defenses
this year but at the Superdome where his fantasy points per game
is 6.2 higher than on the road. There are some really good running
backs to choose from and this isn’t the best matchup for
Kamara given the way Carolina plays the run. Fortunately, he doesn’t
need to rush well to make a fantasy impact. The former Tennessee
Vol has caught at least five passes in eight of his past nine
games played racking up plenty of yardage in the process. Whatever
he gets in the running game is simply a bonus. I understand if
you’d rather take Todd Gurley or Leonard Fournette over
a guy splitting carries in a tough matchup but Sean Peyton isn’t
going to hold back the most dynamic play-maker in his arsenal
either.
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
Passing
Game Thoughts:
