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Fantasy Football Strategy, Advice, and Commentary |
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 By: Dave Stringer — April 23, 2010 @ 12:51 am
Let’s take a look at how the first round of the NFL draft impacts fantasy leagues in 2010.
1. Sam Bradford, QB St. Louis—With A.J. Feeley and Craig Null at quarterback, there is little doubt Bradford will start on opening day. With the team’s current crop of receivers, there is little doubt Bradford will be a fantasy bust in 2010.
2. Ndamukong Suh, DT, Detroit—Suh will improve the Lions defense and help recently signed Kyle Vanden Bosch in the sack department. However, it’s doubtful he will be useful in IDP leagues or vault the Lions defense into the top 15.
3. Gerald McCoy, DT, Tampa Bay—Ditto for McCoy in Tampa.
4. Trent Williams, Washington—The Redskins get their left tackle for the next 10-12 years. Unfortunately, there are major question marks along the offensive line and at running back and wide receiver. He helps, but Donovan McNabb likely remains the only Redskin to own from a fantasy perspective.
5. Eric Berry, S, Kansas City—Big time playmaker immediately improves the Chiefs defense but they aren’t worth targeting in fantasy leagues. Berry is, however, a great candidate in IDP leagues.
6. Russell Okung, OT, Seattle—Seahawks have to be ecstatic to get Okung. He immediately improves the outlook for Julius Jones, Justin Forsett and whoever they add at the position in the draft.
7. Joe Haden, CB, Cleveland—Rookie corners are targeted early and often, making them great IDP candidates. Browns D could surprise in 2010 if Shaun Rogers can stay out of trouble.
8. Rolando McClain, ILB, Oakland—Top linebacker in the draft goes to the Raiders and will either accompany Kirk Morrison in a 3-4 alignment or supplant him in the 4-3. Top IDP rookie in the draft and in Oakland, where he’ll be on the field a lot trying to stop the run, he could be a top ten LB.
9. C.J. Spiller, RB, Buffalo—Just about anywhere else, Spiller had a shot to be the top player taken in fantasy rookie drafts. Considering the anaemic offense Spiller has to work with, he will likely to slot in as the second rookie taken.
10. Tyson Aluala, DT, Jacksonville—Bit of a shocker with John Henderson and Terrence Knighton on the roster, this pick does nothing for the Jaguars defense in fantasy leagues.
11. Anthony Davis, OT, San Francisco—Davis solidifies the right tackle position for the 49ers and makes the team’s young offensive playmakers all that more attractive, provided Alex Smith is solid at quarterback, of course.
12. Ryan Mathews, RB, San Diego—Meet the top pick in rookie fantasy drafts in 2010. Playing in the Chargers high-powered offense, Mathews is a solid RB2 candidate with upside in redraft leagues.
13. Brandon Graham, DE, Philadelphia—Eagles add to a deep defensive line rotation which likely makes Graham little use in IDP leagues. His presence should result in more fantasy points for the Eagles D, however.
14. Earl Thomas, S, Seattle—Solid pick to revamp a secondary that got burned repeatedly in 2009. Thomas figures to be a great player but with the weak pass rush in Seattle, he isn’t a great candidate in IDP leagues.
15. Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, New York Giants—Pierre-Paul seems to be the consensus boom or bust pick in the draft. Unless Osi Umenyiora is moved, he isn’t useful in IDP leagues but should add to the Giants sack totals in 2010.
16. Derrick Morgan, DE, Tennessee—Morgan figures to replace Vanden Bosch but net result is fewer sacks for the Titans next year.
17. Mike Iupati, OG, San Francisco—49ers are apparently doing everything in their power to help the O in 2010. This could be a solid overall offense for fantasy, especially with six games against the Rams, Seahawks and Cardinals.
18. Maurkice Pouncey, C, Pittsburgh—Pouncey will replace Justin Hartwig and solidify the Steelers offensive line. His presence improves the prospects of Rashard Mendenhall next year.
19. Sean Weatherspoon, OLB, Atlanta—Mike Peterson put up solid numbers playing on the outside last year and Weatherspoon figures to be even better.
20. Kareem Jackson, CB, Houston—Plenty of cornerbacks in Houston, all of them suspect so Jackson will likely start from day one and get picked on plenty. Target him in IDP leagues.
21. Jermaine Gresham, TE, Cincinnati—Gresham improves the offense but it’s hard to imagine him being anything more than a backup TE in fantasy leagues.
22. Demaryius Thomas, WR, Denver—Broncos move way back and then surprisingly make Thomas the first wide receiver off the board. If Dez Bryant pans out, the Broncos will look silly for years to come. Thomas, however, does have decent fantasy prospects, especially in dynasty leagues.
23. Bryan Bulaga, OT, Green Bay—Bulaga sinks like a stone to the Packers disbelief. Great pick for the Packers. Bulaga should improve the running game in 2010.
24. Dez Bryant, WR, Dallas—Cowboys get their man and it’s anybody’s guess what’s next for Roy Williams. Bryant doesn’t figure to do much if Williams is around but he’s a great player for dynasty leagues.
25. Tim Tebow, QB, Denver—Check back in a few years to see how this pans out. From a fantasy perspective, the name recognition alone is enough to almost guarantee he’ll be drafted too high, especially considering the uncertainty about what role he will play in the offense out of the gate.
26. Dan Williams, DT, Arizona—Great pick for the Cardinals but their D has likely lost too much to be fantasy relevant in 2010.
27. Devin McCourty, CB, New England—Somehow I don’t see a rookie cornerback playing a big role in the Patriots secondary. Just a hunch.
28. Jared Odrick, DT, Miami—Dolphins add to their defense, as expected, and Odrick will likely move to defensive end. In the Dolphins scheme, he isn’t worth owning in IDP leagues.
29. Kyle Wilson, CB, New York Jets—With Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie on the scene, Wilson won’t have much opportunity. Avoid him in IDP leagues unless Revis or Cromartie gets hurt.
30. Jahvid Best, RB, Detroit—Best figures to have a solid chance to supplant Kevin Smith, with Smith recovering from a torn ACL. However, there are questions about his durability so this could be a RBBC in 2010 and perhaps for years to come.
31. Jerry Hughes, OLB, Indianapolis—Figures to start from day one but don’t expect much from him in IDP leagues in 2010.
32. Patrick Robinson, CB, New Orleans—Saints end the first round by adding to their depth at cornerback. Robinson won’t start in 2010 and may not for a few years.
By: Dave Stringer — April 21, 2010 @ 11:22 pm
The NFL announced that Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger will receive a six game suspension for violating the league’s personal conduct policy.
The suspension comes as a result of Roethlisberger being involved in two separate police investigations alleging sexual assaults within a nine month period. The league ordered Roethlisberger to undergo a comprehensive behavioural evaluation and the outcome of that evaluation as well as his conduct prior to the season will determine whether to reduce the suspension to four games.
The suspension is a huge blow to a Steelers team that was expected to compete with the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens in the AFC North. Without Roethlisberger available for at least four games, a Steelers squad that came within a game of a playoff berth in 2009 faces tougher odds of qualifying for a 2010 post-season berth.
In addition, reports indicate that the Steelers are willing to listen to trade offers for Roethlisberger provided they receive a top ten pick in the upcoming rookie draft. Of the teams that possess those picks, only the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars might consider pursuing a trade with the Steelers. The Cleveland Browns would likely have interest but a trade between the AFC North foes is a remote possibility.
Fantasy Impact
Roethlisberger is coming off his best season as a pro and finished as the eighth-ranked fantasy quarterback in 2009. The Steelers moved to a more pass-based offense last year with three solid wide receivers in Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes and second year speedster Mike Wallace.
However, Holmes was traded to the Jets and the team is expected to move to more of ground based attack in 2010.
Nonetheless, his fantasy prospects for 2010 were still solid but are now clearly diminished with the suspension. Assuming a four game suspension, drafting Roethlisberger becomes costly considering he offers zero in return to start the season, and risky unless you plan on having three quarterbacks on your roster during the suspension.
The biggest winner from a fantasy perspective is running back Rashard Mendenhall, who figures to see an increased workload early in the season. He moves up a few spots and into the top ten at running back, ranked ninth.
The biggest fantasy loser from the suspension is obviously Roethlisberger but Ward, Wallace and tight end Heath Miller also move down in the rankings with backup quarterback Dennis Dixon the likely replacement.
Dixon doesn’t have Roethlisberger’s accuracy or touch on deep balls. Expect teams to play the Steelers wide receivers tight on short and intermediate routes, at least until Dixon proves capable of hitting his wideouts deep.
Wallace was considered a breakout candidate and still should be but he moves to WR4 status given his bread and butter is big plays. Ward isn’t expected to see much of a drop but fantasy owners should be leery of drafting him as a WR2. With concerns about his age and now the quarterback play for at least four games, he looks much more attractive as a WR3.
Miller is coming off a career year in which he finished with 789 yards and six touchdowns, good enough to be the ninth ranked fantasy tight end. He moves from being a borderline starter to a solid backup for fantasy purposes.
By: Dave Stringer — April 20, 2010 @ 10:06 am
After posting my initial wide receiver rankings for the 2010 fantasy football season, there was a lot of feedback from fellow owners in my fantasy leagues that Cardinals wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald was ranked far too low at 11th.
Subsequently, my one-man mock draft came out and it had Fitzgerald being selected with the 12th pick in the third round. Since it was only a three round mock, he was the last player chosen.
More negative feedback followed although some of it did admit that at least my reasoning made a little sense, a backhanded compliment to be sure.
Let’s examine the case that was made for moving Fitzgerald down the wide receiver rankings.
The wide receiver ranking article commented that:
Talent wise, he is definitely higher. Rankings wise, you have to move him down based on the departures of Kurt Warner and Anquan Boldin.
The mock draft article commented that:
He’s a bargain at this spot but hard to move up given the doubts about Matt Leinart’s ability to produce at quarterback. [Fitz] had the 15th most receiving yards in the league in 2009 but was the fourth ranked fantasy wide receiver courtesy of his 13 touchdowns.
Here are Fitzgerald’s statistics over the last three years with Warner largely at the helm of a potent Cardinals offense:
| Larry Fitzgerald |
| |
Receiving |
Fantasy |
| Season |
Team |
G |
GS |
Target |
Rec |
Yard |
Avg |
TD |
FPts |
FPts/G |
| 2007 |
ARI |
15 |
14 |
167 |
101 |
1,412 |
14.0 |
10 |
201.2 |
13.4 |
| 2008 |
ARI |
16 |
16 |
154 |
96 |
1,434 |
14.9 |
12 |
215.4 |
13.5 |
| 2009 |
ARI |
16 |
16 |
153 |
97 |
1,092 |
11.3 |
13 |
187.2 |
11.7 |
In examining Fitzgerald’s performance in 2009, it’s clear that his fantasy production was largely based on the number of touchdowns he scored. His average yards per reception suffered because defenses played a lot of cover two against the Cardinals. Opponents feared the team’s passing attack, not its ability to run the ball.
Looking forward to 2010, with Boldin now in Baltimore, defenses will likely commit more to stopping the running back tandem of the emerging Chris Wells and Tim Hightower. However, with Steve Breaston not worthy of as much attention as Boldin, Fitzgerald will likely be double covered on almost every play.
Talented wide receivers are able to beat coverage but it is more difficult for them to get open and they need an accurate passer to get them the ball. With Warner at the controls, Fitzgerald had an accurate passer, but Leinart has not yet proven able to match Warner’s accuracy and is unlikely to develop to that level in 2010.
In his four years in the league, Leinart compiled a completion rate of 57.1%. Last year, in 77 attempts, he completed 66.2% of his passes but his yards per attempt was a lowly 5.6, indicating that he was throwing a high number of short and intermediate passes.
Warner’s career completion percentage was 65.7% and his yards per attempt was 7.8.
Although some fantasy enthusiasts may have taken solace in Cardinals head coach Ken Whisenhunt recently proclaiming that Leinart was the team’s starting quarterback, it’s worth noting that a week prior to this proclamation he had remarked that Leinart would be anointed the starter once he goes to three Pro Bowls and wins the Super Bowl.
More likely than not, Whisenhunt was sending a statement to Leinart, the recently signed Derek Anderson and the team about the anticipated depth chart. Still, the earlier comment by the head coach does give us a lot of confidence in Leinart as the projected starter.
Over the last three years, the Cardinals offense scored 41, 45 and 43 touchdowns. With Leinart at the controls, it’s easy to predict that the Cardinals will score less. With the team now likely to shift to more of a ground based attack, it’s also easy to predict that a higher percentage of their offensive touchdowns will come on the ground.
Fantasy football success is based on drafting for value and the value equation includes a risk component. With Warner at the controls leading a passing based attack, Fitzgerald was a high reward, low risk option.
With Leinart at the controls of a more ground based attack, Fitzgerald will still produce but his upside is less and he is a far riskier option in 2010. For that reason, he’s currently my 11th ranked wide receiver for fantasy purposes, behind receivers with much more established quarterbacks, such as Greg Jennings (ranked 9th) and Marques Colston (10th).
By: Dave Stringer — April 19, 2010 @ 9:12 am
The Miami Dolphins made a significant move to bolster the team’s anemic passing game by trading for troubled wide receiver Brandon Marshall. In exchange, Miami sends their second round pick in the upcoming rookie draft and a 2011 second round pick to the Denver Broncos.
The acquisition of Marshall immediately upgrades the Dolphins offense and gives third-year quarterback Chad Henne a true number one receiver, something the team has lacked in recent seasons. Although Marshall doesn’t possess outstanding deep speed, he has shown the ability to get past defenders and has excellent ability after the catch due to his size.
The team’s passing attack finished 20th overall in 2009, averaging just under 200 yards per game. Opposing defenses weren’t required to double team any of the team’s receivers last season and Marshall’s presence should benefit whoever lines up opposite him in the starting line-up.
The move comes on the heels of the New York Jets acquisition of wide receiver Santonio Holmes from the Pittsburgh Steelers, and could be regarded as the Dolphins response to keep pace with an aggressive Jets front office.
Reports indicate that Marshall subsequently signed a four-year contract extension that will make him the highest paid wide receiver in the league.
In Marshall the Dolphins are getting an enigmatic player but one who has excelled on the field despite accumulating a lengthy list of off the field discretions that have landed him in trouble with the law, the league, his teammates and Broncos management. They are taking a risk on a player whose next transgression will likely result on a one-year suspension from the league.
Suffice it to say, there will be mixed feelings in Denver regarding his departure.
Fantasy Impact
From a fantasy perspective, there is a clear winner and a clear loser with this trade and they are the respective quarterbacks on each team. Henne comes out on top as he acquires a player who recorded over 100 catches and 1,000 yards in each of the last three seasons.
Simply put, Marshall is head and shoulders above any receiver the team had last season. Henne was the 25th ranked quarterback in my initial rankings but he moves up to 19th overall and is a decent option in dynasty leagues.
In Denver, Marshall was a lock for 100 receptions, 1,100 plus yards and seven to ten touchdowns and was my fifth ranked wide receiver. However, the Dolphins have an outstanding running attack and are not going to change the team’s offensive identity to accommodate Marshall.
In Miami, he is unlikely to top 100 receptions although he may get more shots down the field due to the dual threat at running back in Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams. Although I previously commented that he wouldn’t fall out of the top ten wherever he landed, I have moved him down to 12th overall.
Look for Miami to move Davone Bess to the slot with Greg Camarillo and Brian Hartline battling for the starting spot opposite Marshall. Bess figures to see a huge drop in production in the slot but my previous ranking of 53rd assumed he was destined for the slot anyway so his prognosis doesn’t change much.
None of the three players is worth owning except in deep leagues.
The Dolphins subsequently traded Ted Ginn Jr. to the San Francisco 49ers for a 5th round draft pick.
Broncos quarterback Kyle Orton gets the short end of the stick as he loses his top target and now has a receiver depth chart consisting of Eddie Royal, Jabar Gaffney, Brandon Stokley and Brandon Lloyd. He drops down to 25th in the quarterback rankings.
Of the four receivers, only Royal is considered a talented player and he is coming off a hugely disappointing second season with 37 receptions for 345 yards and no touchdowns. That came on the heels of an outstanding rookie campaign in 2009 when he finished with 91 receptions for 980 yards and five touchdowns.
Royal moves up to 33rd in the wide receiver rankings from 57th previously but is currently a high risk, high reward option. If the Broncos fail to take a receiver in the first or second rounds of the draft, he becomes a more intriguing option.
The team now has three selections in the first two rounds of the draft and will likely use one of those selections on a wide receiver. If that transpires, whoever they select figures to have some potential in dynasty leagues.
By: Dave Stringer — April 12, 2010 @ 11:41 am
With recent legal issues engulfing two of their team’s biggest stars, the Pittsburgh Steelers decided today to reduce the negative publicity surrounding the team by trading wide receiver Santonio Holmes to the New York Jets. In return, the Steelers will reportedly receive the Jets fifth round pick in the upcoming rookie draft.
Holmes is coming off a career year in 2009 and caught the game winning pass in the team’s Super Bowl Championship season in 2008 so this move is clearly not based on his ability on the field.
With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger recently involved in a second sexual assault investigation since last July, the move by the team’s management to trade Holmes would seem to be an attempt to help clean up the team’s public image, an important consideration for an organization long considered to be one of the most respectable in all of pro sports.
Despite his considerable talent on the field, Holmes has had numerous legal difficulties since entering the league. This month, a woman in Florida claimed he threw a glass at her in a nightclub resulting in a cut above here eye. He has also been arrested for marijuana possession and domestic violence.
Although the Steelers only received a fifth round pick in the trade, the deal is not as one-sided as it appears to be. Holmes faces suspension given his latest legal troubles, suspected to be a four gamer, and he is entering the final year of his rookie contract and will be looking for a lucrative long-term extension from the Jets.
In New York, Holmes will likely assume a position in the starting line-up alongside Braylon Edwards with Jerricho Cotchery moving to the slot. There is also an outside chance Cotchery is moved at the draft.
The Jets now possess one of the better wide receiver depth charts in the league and this trade positions them as the team to beat in the AFC East.
Fantasy Impact
Holmes topped 1,000 yards for the first time in his four-year career in 2009, finishing with 79 receptions for 1,248 yards and five touchdowns. In New York, however, his fantasy prospects dim due to the Jets focus on running the ball and the number of talented veteran wide receivers now on the roster.
Assuming Holmes receives a four game suspension, look for him to finish with about 800 yards and six touchdowns through 12 games. Edwards projects to stay at around 800 yards with the same number of touchdowns. However, neither player can be considered to have great upside unless Cotchery is traded.
Cotchery is now only worth owning in deep leagues.
Holmes presence on the Jets certainly helps the fantasy prospects of quarterback Mark Sanchez, who now has three solid wide receivers to throw to as well as pass catching tight end in Dustin Keller and running back LaDainian Tomlinson. He moves up to the 20th spot in the quarterback rankings from 26th previously.
However, the biggest winner of this trade from a fantasy perspective is Steelers wideout Mike Wallace. The third round pick dazzled as a rookie, making several big plays on his way to catching 39 passes for 756 yards and six touchdowns.
Wallace has excellent speed and Steelers management is showing they are confident he is ready to step into the starting line-up to replace Holmes’ production. He becomes a high end WR3 or low end WR2 in larger leagues but one with tremendous upside. Look for him to hit 950-1,000 yards with 7-8 touchdowns in 2010.
I was big on Wallace as a dynasty league candidate already due to Hines Ward’s age and Holmes’ troubles. He becomes much more attractive in those formats now.
Roethlisberger takes a slight hit with this trade moving from the sixth ranked quarterback to ninth overall, mostly because the Steelers don’t have great options to replace Wallace: Antwaan Randle El, Limas Sweed and Arnaz Battle. Diminutive returner Stefan Logan is also an option given the team’s musings about getting him more involved on offense.
By: Dave Stringer — April 8, 2010 @ 11:06 pm
With the recent acquisition of Donovan McNabb from the Eagles, the Redskins have solidified the quarterback position and increased their flexibility in the upcoming NFL rookie draft. And with that extra flexibility, it appears the team is now putting up various smokescreens in order to maximize their return from the draft picks they currently have.
Due to previous personnel moves, the Redskins currently have only four picks in the draft and there is plenty of speculation the team will attempt to make trades at or before the draft to increase their overall number of picks.
Their second round pick was moved to the Eagles as part of the McNabb trade, their sixth round pick was part of the Jason Taylor trade and the team used their 2010 third round pick to take defensive end Jeremy Jarmon in the third round of the 2009 supplemental draft.
The easiest avenue for the Redskins to pick up extra draft picks would be to trade Albert Haynesworth, who reportedly does not want to move to nose tackle in the team’s new 3-4 defensive alignment. However, few teams are likely to want to take on his massive contract.
Redskins head coach Mike Shanahan indicated the team was still considering taking a quarterback with the fourth overall selection in the draft, reasoning that some of the best quarterbacks in the league benefitted from being a backup during their first few years in the league.
Then came reports that the team was interested in acquiring former Cowboys left tackle Flozell Adams to shore up that position on the offensive line. Even for a Redskins team famed for its reputation for acquiring aging veterans, this potential free agent signing seems to be a stretch.
More likely, these moves are an attempt to create a smokescreen in an attempt to influence teams lower in the draft to increase their offers for the Redskins first round selection.
Numerous teams have needs at tackle and may be willing to move up to acquire the consensus top offensive tackle in the draft, Oklahoma State’s Russell Okung.
However, the real target of this smokescreen is likely the Buffalo Bills. The Bills have a need at quarterback and at left tackle and may be willing to move up to acquire Notre Dame quarterback Jimmy Clausen.
If the Bills are convinced the Redskins are ready to sign Adams to play left tackle and take Clausen fourth overall, they would need to entice the Redskins to move the pick in order to get one of the top two quarterbacks in the draft.
Alternatively, if the Bills were convinced Clausen was going to the Redskins, they might be willing to increase a potential offer for Jason Campbell.
Either way, the Redskins would increase the number of picks they have in the draft as well as receive extra value in any potential Bills trade. Whether or not the Bills and rookie general manager Buddy Nix bite is anyone’s guess.
Here’s a look at the Redskins roster needs as the draft approaches.
Quarterback
With the McNabb trade, the free agent signing of Rex Grossman and second year player Colt Brennan on the roster, the team seems set at quarterback. Look for Campbell to be moved at the draft.
Running Back
Shanahan has a history of using lower round picks on the running back position but that may have to wait until the 2011 draft given the team’s overall needs. With aging veterans Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker occupying the depth chart, this position needs an upgrade but that may not happen unless they can move the fourth overall selection.
Receivers
Santana Moss returns as the team’s top wide receiver but he leaves something to be desired as a true number one receiver. With Devin Thomas and Malcolm Kelly entering their third years, the team is hopeful that one or both of them will finally start producing consistently. The team also has hopes for 2009 seventh round pick Marko Mitchell who has good size and speed. There isn’t a need at tight end with the duo of Chris Cooley and Fred Davis.
Offensive Line
With Chris Samuels’ retirement, the Redskins have a gaping hole at left tackle and figure to address that at some point in the first round of the draft assuming the Adams interest is a smokescreen.
Right tackle Stephon Heyor hasn’t impressed and could be challenged by Artis Hicks. Derrick Dockery returns at left guard but Randy Thomas was released creating a vacancy at right guard. Casey Rabach is solid at center but is entering his tenth year in the league.
The Redskins need to address two starting positions as well as the overall depth along the offensive line.
Defensive Line
The Redskins are moving to a 3-4 defense but don’t figure to have the difficulties in doing so that many teams have faced. The team has significant depth along the defensive line so it will be a surprise if any selections in the draft address this position.
Linebackers
With Andre Carter moving to outside linebacker to start alongside London Fletcher, Rocky McIntosh (who is expected to move inside) and emerging star Brian Orakpo, the Redskins figure to have a solid starting unit. There is little depth behind the starters other than H.B. Blades and converted defensive end Chris Wilson.
Defensive Backs
The Redskins are set at cornerback with DeAngelo Hall, Carlos Rogers, Philip Buchanon, Justin Tryon, Byron Westbrook and Kevin Barnes. However, the situation at safety is a little unsettled due to the struggles last season of LaRon Landry, Chris Horton and Reed Doughty. Kareem Moore could push for playing time there but the team would likely address the safety position in the draft.
By: Dave Stringer — April 7, 2010 @ 10:08 am
Having jettisoned their top two quarterbacks from last season, Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson, in favour of the aging Jake Delhomme and veteran Seneca Wallace, the Cleveland Browns next logical move would seem to be repairing the desperate situation at wide receiver.
Or perhaps not.
With new general manager Mike Holmgren having an offensive background, most observers felt he would focus his attention on that side of the ball in free agency and that has proven to be true.
In addition to addressing the quarterback position, the Browns went the free agency route in acquiring right offensive tackle Tony Pashos and tight end Ben Watson, as well as re-signing guard Billy Yates and tight end Greg Estandia. They also picked up fullback Peyton Hillis from the Broncos as part of the Quinn trade, and he can also fill in at running back.
However, despite having the worst passing offense in the league with a woeful 129.8 yards per game last year, the Browns have not addressed the wide receiver position in free agency. To put this in perspective, the next worst passing offense was the New York Jets with 148.8 yards per game, 19 yards a game better than the Browns. The Browns were really, really bad.
More proof of the anemic passing attack was that the Browns were the only team in the NFL to complete fewer than 50% of their passes. They averaged a league worst 5.1 yards per attempt and had the second lowest number of touchdown passes with 11. The team’s wide receivers caught only five of those touchdown passes.
And yet the current depth chart at wide receiver remains unchanged from the end of last season with second-year players Mohamed Massaquoi and Brian Robiskie accompanied by former Jet Chansi Stuckey and Josh Cribbs. Combined, they caught 80 passes last year for 1,063 yards which would be considered solid production from a team’s number one receiver, not its top four.
With the remaining free agent wide receivers consisting of aging veterans and journeyman, the Browns will be forced to address the position in the draft, barring a trade. The top wide receiver available is expected to be Oklahoma State’s Dez Bryant but his draft stock is sliding due to questions about his character and poor 40-yard time, making it unlikely the Browns will pick him with the seventh selection in the draft.
Fantasy Impact
Massaquoi is the only wide receiver on the roster that has shown the ability to develop into a productive starter. At 6’2” and 207 pounds, he has good size and displayed some big play ability as a rookie with 34 receptions for 624 yards and three touchdowns, averaging an impressive 18.4 yards per catch.
However, he was very inconsistent with a large portion of his production (407 yards and two touchdowns) coming in four games, the only games in which he topped 40 yards receiving. In addition, his average yards per catch as a rookie may be deceiving since he doesn’t possess great deep speed. Nonetheless, he projects as the Browns top wide receiver in 2010 and as a low end fantasy WR4 with limited upside.
Robiskie’s lack of production as a rookie was particularly confusing since he was considered to be the most polished wide receiver coming out of college last year. Despite being the fourth pick in the second round and possessing decent speed, he was active for only 11 games, many of which he barely played, and caught seven passes for 106 yards. He was targeted only 21 times.
Barring major improvement during the offseason together with a solid training camp, he does not currently project as a player worth drafting in all but the deepest of fantasy leagues.
Cribbs has displayed some obvious big play ability but in five years, the most yards he had from scrimmage in a season came last year when he totalled 516. In the previous four years, his combined total was 292 total yards. Although the Browns list him as a wide receiver, there is little doubt that his biggest potential for fantasy purposes lies in his ability as a running back.
With Jerome Harrison having basically a solid half-season out of four years in the league, Hillis a marginal talent and James Davis coming off a wasted rookie season, Cribbs could have surprising production as a runner in Cleveland provided there are no additions to the depth chart prior to opening day.
As for Stuckey, he was reasonably decent for one season as a third wide receiver with the Jets in 2008 as part of an offense that put up solid passing production. Last year, the Jets gave up on him after he started three of four games with minimal impact. He’s a marginal talent at best and isn’t even guaranteed a roster spot in 2010.
The Raiders, Rams and Buccaneers also possess depth charts at wide receiver that are severely lacking but those teams possess some decent veterans and a speed element, neither of which exist in Cleveland at the moment.
Add it all up and it seems clear that the Browns currently possess the worst group of wide receivers in the league.
By: Dave Stringer — April 5, 2010 @ 9:33 am
With new head coach Mike Shanahan at the controls, the Washington Redskins and their flamboyant owner Daniel Snyder promised the team’s fans that the days of wild free agent spending and veteran acquisitions were over.
The new vision died a quick death with the team’s decision yesterday to trade for the Eagles’ Donovan McNabb. In order to acquire, the 33 year old quarterback, the Redskins shipped their 2010 second round pick (37th overall) and a conditional pick in 2011 that will be either their third or fourth round pick.
While the price is reasonable, the vision of the Redskins turning to the draft to reverse the team’s sagging fortunes over the past few years seems over. In that regard, the new administration is following the same philosophy as previous regimes did in Washington under Snyder – eschewing developing young players in favour of playing aging veterans in the hopes of a quick fix.
The Redskins have a solid defense, one that is perhaps worthy of contending for a championship. However, the offense is not yet ready to lead the team to a division title and it’s difficult to envision McNabb as the final piece of the puzzle that pushes them over the top in 2010. In fact, they will need to push the right buttons in free agency and the draft just to have a chance to make the playoffs in 2011.
The trade increases the likelihood of the team using the fourth overall selection in the draft to plug the hole that was created at left tackle with Chris Samuels’ retirement. It also increases the chances of incumbent starting quarterback Jason Campbell being moved before the draft, possibly to the quarterback needy Buffalo Bills.
The move is a bold one for an Eagles front office known for its conservative player personnel moves.
McNabb has been to the Super Bowl, five NFC Championship games, six Pro Bowls and holds almost all of the franchise’s career records. In trading him to a division rival, the team is signalling that they are confident that Kevin Kolb is ready to lead the franchise and that McNabb’s presence in Washington won’t push the Redskins into Super Bowl contender status.
The Eagles brain trust has a history of solid personnel moves so the odds of them being right on Kolb seem likely. However, that doesn’t lessen the shock that they were willing to trade a player of McNabb’s stature in order to clear a spot for him in the starting line-up.
Fantasy Impact
While McNabb was my fifth ranked fantasy quarterback a month ago, his fantasy stock plummets with a move to Washington. In Philadelphia, he would have been surrounded by outstanding young talent at the skill positions in wide receivers DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin and Jason Avant as well as tight end Brent Celek and second-year running back LeSean McCoy, and protected by a solid offensive line.
While Redskins tight ends Chris Cooley and Fred Davis are arguably only a notch below Celek, their wide receivers are no match for the Eagles threesome. In addition, their offensive line is in shambles and they have an aging group of running backs in Clinton Portis, Larry Johnson and Willie Parker that are well past their best before date.
McNabb becomes my 15th ranked fantasy quarterback and barring a breakout campaign from either Devin Thomas or Malcolm Kelly, it’s difficult to conclude that he has much upside from here. His risk factor also increases considering he is an aging quarterback playing behind a leaky offensive line and he has managed to stay healthy for a full season only four times in his 11 year career.
Of the Redskins wide receivers, Santana Moss figures to benefit the most but he will be 31 on opening day and has topped 1,000 yards once in the last four seasons. Plus, his small stature reduces his usefulness in the red zone.
He moves from WR5 status to being a WR4 in 10 team leagues and a marginal starter in 12 team leagues. I have him ranked 35th overall at wide receiver.
The odds of Thomas and Kelly breaking out in their third year in the league increases but predicting that is a stretch. They move from being waiver wire candidates in most leagues to potentially being worth a spot at the end of your fantasy bench depending on their play in the preseason. Keep your eye on this position battle during training camp.
Given Celek’s production over the past couple of years and Shanahan’s frequent use of the tight end position, Cooley and Davis figure to benefit from McNabb’s arrival but splitting the production is never a recipe for fantasy success at tight end.
As for the Redskins running backs, it’s best to avoid them altogether.
With the Eagles, Kolb obviously benefits the most from this move. He played reasonably well in a pair of starts last year against New Orleans and Kansas City, topping 300 yards in each game and throwing four touchdowns and three interceptions. He completed almost 65% of his passes in those games, displaying solid accuracy. Of course, the Saints were playing soft coverage because they had a big lead for most of the game and the Chiefs secondary was amongst the worst in the league.
Nonetheless, Kolb hasn’t played enough in the league to provide an accurate gauge of his fantasy prospects for the 2010 season. Fantasy owners are left to decide whether or not they trust the Eagles front office in installing him as the team’s starting quarterback on a roster that has the ability to challenge for the division title next season.
He will benefit from a solid supporting cast but young quarterbacks can be expected to throw more interceptions than veterans so expect a few more picks from Kolb than McNabb has thrown in recent seasons. Kolb figures to pass for between 3,500 and 3,800 yards with 20 plus touchdowns.
He becomes my 12th ranked fantasy quarterback but with upside and is an excellent option in dynasty leagues. Move him a couple of notches lower in leagues that penalize interceptions.
At wide receiver, Jackson, Maclin and Avant figure to move down slightly but not significantly. Jackson moves from sixth to eighth in the wide receiver rankings while Maclin moves from 25th to 30th. Avant remains worthy of owning in deep leagues and is a solid waiver wire candidate in shallower leagues if Jackson or Maclin is injured.
It’s worth noting that Celek caught 16 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown in Kolb’s two starts last season so there is plenty of reason for optimism with regards to his fantasy prospects.
However, in moving him from my second ranked tight end to fourth, I’m choosing to ignore that rather important statistic in putting Celek behind Antonio Gates, Vernon Davis and Dallas Clark. He remains an excellent player to own in dynasty leagues and could benefit from this move but he slides as his projected number of touchdowns is reduced with Kolb at the controls.
The Eagles running back tandem of McCoy and Mike Bell doesn’t see a material change in their fantasy prospects as a result of this trade.
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