As I enter my 17th year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings. My focus will be mostly on small-slate DraftKings
Classic tournaments. I will also share the lineup I would use in
the FFPC Playoff Challenge.
The first part of this week's column will be devoted to those
managers who participate in any format in which it is best or
required to keep the players they draft for the duration of the
postseason. The second half of the column is for owners who play
in leagues in which you reset your lineup each week, such as a
salary cap setup like DFS. Regardless of which format(s) you choose
to play in, my goal over the next four articles will be to help
each of you through your decision-making process as you attempt
to boost your bottom line.
Multi-Week Leagues
Below you will find 14 playoff teams ranked in order of the (percentage)
odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl. I will spend
a bit of time after that attempting to nail the bracket before
talking a little DFS.
1. Seattle (28%)
2. LA Rams (26%)
3. Denver (26%)
4. Houston (22%)
5. Philadelphia (20%)
6. Jacksonville (20%)
7. New England (16%)
8. Chicago (12%)
9. Buffalo (12%)
10. San Francisco (10%)
11. Green Bay (3%)
12. LA Chargers (3%)
13. Pittsburgh (1%)
14. Carolina (1%)
With that out of the way, let us next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Patriots over Chargers, Jaguars
over Bills, Texans over Steelers NFC - Wildcard: Bears over Packers, Eagles over
49ers, Rams over Panthers
AFC - Divisional: Broncos over Texans, Jaguars
over Patriots NFC - Divisional: Rams over Seahawks, Eagles
over Bears
AFC - Conference Championship: Jaguars over
Broncos NFC - Conference Championship: Rams over Eagles
Super Bowl: Jaguars vs. Rams
The rankings below are for those readers in leagues that require
you to draft players this week and keep them for the duration
of the postseason. The number inside the parentheses refers to
how many games I expect that player/unit to play.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by his projected point total. Because I went into some
detail above, I will not spend a great deal of time explaining
each projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each
position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running
backs, receivers and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
There is no obvious favorite at quarterback, even though the list
includes the likely top two candidates for league MVP and perhaps
the hottest quarterback over the last month. With no Patrick Mahomes
or Lamar Jackson in the field, the chalk plays will likely be Josh
Allen and Jalen Hurts. Should they be? I am not so sure. Jacksonville
led the league in run defense and did a fine job of limiting rushing
scores at all positions. Hurts did not attempt more than 30 passes
in his last three outings and significantly less in 2025 than he
has in any other season since he became the full-time starter in
Philadelphia. Neither player should be a complete fade given their
obvious upside, if only because coaches tend to rely more heavily
on their top players in the playoffs, but I still have my doubts
that Allen can overcome his lack of a viable threat at receiver
and Hurts can overcome his play-caller.
In case it was not already obvious, going cheap at quarterback
appears to be the way to go this week. I have Matthew Stafford
projected to do the best, but he is only $100 cheaper than Allen.
Brock Purdy is $900 cheaper than Allen, but he faces a defense
that finished eighth in pass defense and generally only was exposed
by true dual-threat quarterbacks. Ditto for Trevor Lawrence against
the Bills. Drake Maye is priced about the same as Allen and Stafford
and Herbert is a player who has only been a viable fantasy starter
once in over two months (and that came in a soft matchup against
the Cowboys). He is also working behind a shell of the offensive
line the Chargers wanted to put in front of him.
That leaves my preferred options as C.J. Stroud, whom I am selecting
more for his price point than anything else, and Trevor Lawrence.
With that said, Houston has done a better job of protecting Stroud
lately (and Stroud has done a better job of protecting himself
as well), but the decisive factor is his matchup against a Pittsburgh
defense that has allowed at least two total touchdowns to a quarterback
in each of its last seven contests. (It is a list that includes
Tua Tagovailoa and Shedeur Sanders.) Furthermore, the Texans are
unlikely to establish much of a ground game versus the Steelers.
Lawrence is a bit more expensive than Stroud ($900), but I don’t
see how the Bills consistently slow down the Jacksonville offense
this weekend in what could be the highest-scoring game of the
weekend.
Christian McCaffrey is a good pick just about every week. He
makes sense on this slate as well, especially in any lineup that
decides to go cheap at quarterback. With that said, DFS enthusiasts
will want to monitor the availability of LT Trent Williams (hamstring).
While Williams' absence was not the only reason San Francisco's
offense bottomed out in Week 18 against the Seahawks, we have
several years of proof that the 49ers are much less formidable
when Williams is not playing. The matchup against the Eagles is
not as treacherous as it might seem, but I would strongly consider
pivoting off CMC if Williams is a no-go this weekend.
As mentioned earlier, the Jaguars boasted the best run defense
in the league during the regular season. That alone gives me some
pause with James Cook, although not to the point where he is a
fade for me. Cook had his way with some very good run defenses
during the season en route to winning the rushing title, although
Jacksonville presents a different level of challenge. Jonathan
Taylor was the only running back to reach 70 yards on the ground
against the Jags. It will take Buffalo's best effort up front
to make Cook worth putting into your lineup this week.
My favorite three options at running back may be the ones hanging
around in the same neighborhood as McCaffrey and Cook. A rested
Saquon Barkley getting stud RT Lane Johnson back against a beat-up
San Francisco defense feels like a good way to go, especially
as the 49ers continue to lose linebackers. We started to see more
of the 2024 version of Barkley at the end of the regular season.
With at least 19 touches in four straight and in what should be
a good matchup at home, he seems like a safe bet.
While the Bills have not been embarrassingly bad against the
run over the last two months, they probably still qualify as a
matchup we should try to exploit as often as possible. Travis
Etienne, who has been woefully inefficient for most of the last
three months as a runner, ended the regular season as the overall
RB10 - thanks in large part to scoring 13 total touchdowns. He
has also secured the bulk of receiving work out of the backfield
as well. (It is how he has scored his last four touchdowns and
five of his last six, overshadowing the fact that he has produced
a rushing TD in one of his last seven outings.)
The Rams suggested some time ago that the primary reason they
started to give more work to Blake Corum around midseason was
to make sure they could keep Kyren Williams fresh for the postseason.
Did Corum do enough to force HC Sean McVay's hand and keep the
split backfield intact? I think it is a distinct possibility,
at least for one week against an opponent (Carolina) that Los
Angeles should beat. Nevertheless, I would probably save myself
$200 and roll the dice on Williams (who has been efficient for
the bulk of the season and has a chance to handle a significant
workload if the plan all along has been to feature him in the
playoffs) over Etienne.
Something I never thought would come out of my mouth (or fingers,
seeing as I am writing this) is recommending Kenneth Gainwell
as a solid fantasy option. With that said, he is probably the
most sensible running back to pair with a low-cost quarterback
and one of the aforementioned running backs. Houston's cornerbacks
are a brutal matchup for Pittsburgh's wide receivers and the Texans'
run defense should be able to control the Steelers' rushing attack.
That leaves Pittsburgh's tight ends and Gainwell as the Steelers'
primary ways to move the ball on Monday night. I am not entirely
sure the Steelers score an offensive touchdown versus the Texans,
but Gainwell's work in the passing game may be their best hope
of doing so.
About the only low-cost option that interests me this weekend
is Emanuel Wilson, who might be more involved than most expect
if one week of rest was not enough to get Josh Jacobs looking
more like his usual self. With that said, I am not sure the $600
of savings on Gainwell or the $400 of savings on D'Andre Swift
is worth it in most lineups.
The chalky play of the weekend will probably be Puka Nacua, and
for good reason. There are two primary reasons why he will not
be my top option. First and foremost, Carolina was one of the
last two teams to keep him somewhat in check (6-72-0 in Week 13).
Just as importantly, the return of Davante Adams lowers his touchdown
upside. Not including the Week 6 game in which Nacua left early
with a sprained ankle, his average line was eight catches for
105 yards and 0.5 touchdowns with Adams serving as his running
mate. In the 3 1/2 games Adams just missed due to his hamstring
injury, his average line increased to 9-132-1. Make no mistake
about it; both averages are elite. The difference is that when
Adams is healthy, Nacua can occasionally be considered the third-most
likely option to score a touchdown among Rams' pass-catchers.
I still want plenty of exposure to Nacua, but he will not be a
lineup staple for me.
The most exposure I will probably have to any receiver this weekend
is Nico Collins. Not only is he an obvious stacking partner with
my low-cost quarterback (Stroud), but the Pittsburgh secondary
should be a juicy matchup for him. Zay Flowers shredded this defense
twice in just over a month, Jerry Jeudy enjoyed one of his four
double-digit efforts against the Steelers in Week 17 and D.J.
Moore had his best game of the season versus them in Week 12.
There are several others, and none of them is as dominant as Collins.
I am not sure how much exposure I plan to have to A.J. Brown,
although I suppose I could always use the $300 of savings I get
with him over Collins and spend it on a better defense. With that
said, I would just as soon save another $400 (from Brown) and
roll with Adams, who led the league in receiving touchdowns despite
sitting out the last three-plus games. While I believe we are
past the point of Brown being ignored in the passing game, Adams
proved he has multiple-touchdown upside four times during a six-game
stretch around midseason. Brown has that kind of upside as well
(he had a pair of two-TD performances in 2025), but we would be
assuming that the Eagles will not spend the second half sticking
the ball in Saquon Barkley's belly for that to happen.
While I realize I have Tetairoa McMillan and Khalil Shakir projected
for more points than all but two receivers this weekend, I am
not going to pretend as if I have an abundance of faith in either
one. Yes, McMillan has an advantage over the Rams' perimeter corners,
but how much faith do we have in Bryce Young to take advantage
in his first NFL playoff game? Shakir is unquestionably Buffalo's
best option at receiver, but his career high for touchdowns in
a season is four. That is not the kind of stuff that DFS millionaire
dreams are typically made of. With that said, Shakir is priced
nicely enough that a case can be made for him as a WR3/flex. Ditto
for Parker Washington. I can see having one (more Washington than
Shakir) in the majority of my lineups. Jakobi Meyers makes sense
as a WR2 in Nacua lineups, and he will be a key part of the game
I want to load up on this weekend. The only problem is that Washington
appears to be just as big a part of Jacksonville's passing game
as he is.
Among the sub-$5,000 receivers I want to round up my lineups
with are Christian Watson and Luther Burden. Neither player needs
much explanation, as Watson is arguably the No. 1 receiver in
Green Bay and the best bet to score a touchdown among the group.
Burden comes slightly cheaper than Watson ($300), although the
return of Rome Odunze likely removes some of his luster.
George Kittle is usually one of the few tight ends for whom matchups
matter very little. That remains true this weekend to a degree,
but it needs to be noted that no tight end finished with more than
Evan Engram's 13.3 PPR fantasy points against Philadelphia this
season. The reason for this is relatively simple: per PFF, Zach
Baun and Jihaad Campbell ranked first and fourth, respectively,
in coverage grade among linebackers with at least 200 coverage snaps
this season. Kittle is a beast, so he might be able to top Engram's
mark, but he may also be needed to stay in and block more often
if LT Trent Williams is unable to play.
Considering the matchup and the price tag ($1,700 more than any
other tight end), I will be shopping somewhere else this weekend.
Without question, my preferred option will be Dalton Schultz.
Not only is Schultz coming off a regular season in which he said
career highs in targets (106) and catches (82), but the Steelers
have also not been particularly good at defending his position.
While the Steelers' ability to control tight ends improved once
they started playing Jalen Ramsey more often at safety after Week
8, they still had their issues despite not facing the best of
the best at the position. Admittedly, my projection of Dalton
Kincaid could be little more than wishful thinking. What I am
confident in is the likelihood that Buffalo will need him to come
up big (if he plays) against one of the 10 defenses that gave
up at least 1,000 receiving yards to the position.
Although I have Hunter Henry projected for one more fantasy point
than Dallas Goedert, I think it might be worth the $300 savings
to roll with Goedert instead. There hasn't been a lot of rhyme
or reason to Goedert's season (seven TDs in his first seven games,
followed by five straight scoreless weeks before his current three-game
TD streak), but the 49ers are a good opponent to target if you
want some upside at tight end. San Francisco just put its third
linebacker on IR this week, which matters to Goedert because he
is not a seam-stretcher (meaning he will work mostly at the linebacker
level and not work his way to the third level of the defense very
often). Although I don't think there is a tight end that goes
off for 100 yards and/or two touchdowns this week, Goedert might
have the best chance to do so.
Outside of the top five options above, I feel the best about
Colby Parkinson (monitor the practice reports of Tyler Higbee
and Terrance Ferguson this week) and Colston Loveland. The latter
is easily the more enticing of the two, if only because he has
posted back-to-back games of at least 10 targets, six catches,
91 yards and a touchdown. Green Bay has the personnel to contain
him better than most (4-29-1 and 3-30-0 in his two games against
the Packers this season), but he is one of the few tight ends
who is capable of creating a big play.
Key for defense/special teams units: Bonus - Points allowed
bonus for DraftKings TO - Total turnovers forced TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
Bonus
Sacks
Fum
INT
TD
DK
Rams
$3,500
1
2
1
1
0
7.0
Texans
$3,300
1
4
0
1
0
7.0
Patriots
$3,200
1
3
0
1
0
6.0
Chargers
$2,200
1
3
0
1
0
6.0
Jaguars
$2,700
0
1
1
1
0
5.0
Bears
$2,500
1
2
0
1
0
5.0
Eagles
$2,900
1
1
0
1
0
4.0
Steelers
$2,600
0
3
0
0
0
3.0
Packers
$2,800
1
1
0
0
0
2.0
49ers
$2,400
0
1
0
0
0
1.0
Panthers
$2,000
-1
1
0
0
0
0.0
Bills
$3,000
-4
2
0
0
0
-2.0
FFPC Playoff Challenge
Due to popular demand, I am continuing another section to this
edition of the Road to the Super Bowl. The FFPC offers a yearly
playoff challenge in which managers must put together a 12-man
fantasy squad, selecting no more than one player from each NFL
team. Similar to the NFL.com Playoff Challenge in years past,
players accumulate points throughout their time in the playoffs
- be it for one game or four. There is no ability to change players
once rosters are set and locked for the first round of the postseason.
Additionally, the only time the multiplier kicks in is for the
Super Bowl (2x).
Because I have expressed my thoughts on many players above, I
will just share the lineup I would use in this competition. Kicker
and defense/special teams are essentially throwaway positions
from the perspective that it makes no sense to use those spots
on players/units from the top Super Bowl contenders because they
are the lowest-scoring positions.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.
