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Doug Orth | Archive | Email |
Staff Writer

Top 200 Big Board, TFC High-Stakes League
Preseason Matchup Analysis


Just like in every other fantasy football league, each week is important. Unlike most leagues, there is a $200,000 grand prize waiting for the lucky owner who is able to mix regular-season success with postseason dominance in The Fantasy Championship. That means as important as matchups are in the first 12 weeks (four-team playoffs start in Week 13), they are exponentially more important in the run during "The Championship" (Weeks 14-16) since each week is added to the average point total for your team during the first 13 weeks.

The point to be made here is December is critical not only for collecting the $1,000 owners get for winning their league, but also to make sure they stack 180- to 200-point weeks on top of one another over the final three weeks in order to keep themselves in the running for the big prize. In short, it is advantageous for owners to line up as many favorable matchups as possible for their best players. As such, I put a heavier emphasis on late-season matchups in the TFC format than I do on my other Big Boards. The uniqueness of the title run in The Fantasy Championship is what separates it from most other PPR leagues and makes it necessary to create another Big Board solely for it.

Unlike the first three Big Boards (PPR, Half-Point PPR and Non-PPR), I will move a player up or down the board a bit within his SSI tier in an effort to account for the unique nature of "The Championship." I am willing to admit my shortcomings - one of which being I am not so sophisticated to believe I can create an algorithm that includes the potential impact of a player's final four games without corrupting the integrity of my rankings.

For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain the SSI concept as well as the color-coding system before we start:

SSI (Success Score Index) - A single number that reflects a score based on meticulously grading and assigning certain weights to several attributes that I feel are critical to fantasy success at a position. It is the number that allows me to compare apples to oranges across the positions.

Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).

Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – This one can go either way, but I favor the player over the matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for this matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable for all levels of players.

Green – For non-elite players, the stage is set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player, this matchup could produce special numbers.

Note: This week, I will release my final Big Boards for The Fantasy Championship (TFC) and FFPC Big Boards. As a way to eliminate "fluff" from the bottom of the board, I cut off quarterbacks and tight ends after 24 players. In most leagues - even ones with 20-round drafts like the TFC - there is not a lot of reason to carry more than two players at either position for an extended amount of time, unless the league scoring is significantly tilted in a particular direction (such as points per completion or 1.5 PPR points for tight ends). It's also another way to pack more potential difference-makers at running back and receivers onto the list.

Here is the scoring system that I used to rank the players in the TFC PPR format:

 TFC Big Board - Top 200
Rank Pos Player Tm Age SSI 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
1 RB1 Todd Gurley LAR 24 1218.3
2 RB2 David Johnson ARI 26 1169.8
3 RB3 Leonard Fournette JAC 23 1168.1
4 RB4 Melvin Gordon LAC 25 1160.5
5 WR1 Antonio Brown PIT 30 1150.4
6 RB5 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 23 1147.7
7 WR2 Odell Beckham Jr. NYG 25 1145.8
8 RB6 Saquon Barkley NYG 21 1145.4
9 RB7 Le'Veon Bell PIT 26 1138.5
10 WR3 DeAndre Hopkins HOU 26 1122.1
11 RB8 Kareem Hunt KC 23 1120.2
12 RB9 Alvin Kamara NO 23 1083.4
13 RB10 Christian McCaffrey CAR 22 1080.1
14 RB11 Dalvin Cook MIN 23 1064.3
15 WR4 Julio Jones ATL 29 1063.3
16 WR5 Michael Thomas NO 25 1053.3
17 WR6 Davante Adams GB 25 1043.8
18 WR7 Keenan Allen LAC 26 1042.4
19 WR8 A.J. Green CIN 30 1038.6
20 WR9 Stefon Diggs MIN 24 1018.5
21 RB12 Alex Collins BAL 24 1010.0
22 RB13 Jordan Howard CHI 23 1008.6
23 TE1 Rob Gronkowski NE 29 1007.1
24 RB14 Devonta Freeman ATL 26 1013.9
25 WR10 Mike Evans TB 25 1013.0
26 RB15 Joe Mixon CIN 22 1008.1
27 WR11 Larry Fitzgerald ARI 34 1007.3
28 TE2 Travis Kelce KC 28 985.2
29 WR12 T.Y. Hilton IND 28 987.8
30 WR13 Tyreek Hill KC 24 979.3
31 RB16 Jerick McKinnon SF 26 1007.4
32 WR14 Doug Baldwin SEA 29 969.8
33 RB17 Derrick Henry TEN 24 969.4
34 WR15 Demaryius Thomas DEN 30 969.0
35 WR16 Adam Thielen MIN 28 952.5
36 WR17 Amari Cooper OAK 24 946.5
37 TE3 Zach Ertz PHI 27 916.8
38 RB18 LeSean McCoy BUF 30 957.2
39 RB19 Royce Freeman DEN 22 908.2
40 WR18 Emmanuel Sanders DEN 31 904.5
41 RB20 Jay Ajayi PHI 25 904.1
42 WR19 Corey Davis TEN 23 910.5
43 WR20 Jarvis Landry CLE 25 899.1
44 RB21 Lamar Miller HOU 27 895.6
45 RB22 Kenyan Drake MIA 24 892.5
46 QB1 Aaron Rodgers GB 34 888.7
47 RB23 Rex Burkhead NE 28 878.6
48 WR21 Chris Hogan NE 29 878.3
49 WR22 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT 21 852.5
50 RB24 Dion Lewis TEN 27 887.5
51 WR23 Marvin Jones DET 28 885.5
52 TE4 Jimmy Graham GB 31 889.3
53 WR24 Allen Robinson CHI 25 876.9
54 WR25 Golden Tate DET 30 872.1
55 TE5 Trey Burton CHI 26 852.3
56 WR26 Jamison Crowder WAS 25 850.8
57 RB25 Jamaal Williams GB 23 847.0
58 RB26 Marshawn Lynch OAK 32 846.4
59 WR27 Marquise Goodwin SF 27 850.5
60 WR28 Sammy Watkins KC 25 849.0
61 RB27 Tarik Cohen CHI 23 863.8
62 RB28 Chris Thompson WAS 27 844.7
63 TE6 Delanie Walker TEN 34 844.7
64 RB29 Chris Carson SEA 23 843.8
65 QB2 Tom Brady NE 41 843.8
66 QB3 Deshaun Watson HOU 22 842.1
67 RB30 Carlos Hyde CLE 27 841.4
68 TE7 Greg Olsen CAR 33 841.0
69 TE8 Kyle Rudolph MIN 28 839.3
70 WR29 Michael Crabtree BAL 30 838.8
71 RB31 Tevin Coleman ATL 25 838.6
72 RB32 Isaiah Crowell NYJ 25 837.3
73 QB4 Drew Brees NO 39 834.0
74 QB5 Kirk Cousins MIN 30 833.9
75 WR30 Brandin Cooks LAR 24 828.6
76 QB6 Cam Newton CAR 29 826.2
77 RB33 Kerryon Johnson DET 21 825.6
78 WR31 Robby Anderson NYJ 25 824.3
79 WR32 Cooper Kupp LAR 25 822.9
80 RB34 Mark Ingram NO 28 822.7
81 RB35 Ronald Jones TB 21 822.6
82 QB7 Andrew Luck IND 28 821.2
83 WR33 Josh Gordon CLE 27 820.4
84 QB8 Philip Rivers LAC 36 819.7
85 QB9 Carson Wentz PHI 25 815.4
86 QB10 Russell Wilson SEA 29 819.7
87 TE9 Evan Engram NYG 23 819.4
88 TE10 Jack Doyle IND 28 818.0
89 WR34 Robert Woods LAR 26 817.3
90 WR35 Alshon Jeffery PHI 28 817.0
91 RB36 Duke Johnson CLE 24 816.9
92 WR36 Kenny Stills MIA 26 816.9
93 RB37 Peyton Barber TB 24 816.8
94 RB38 Bilal Powell NYJ 29 809.9
95 WR37 Randall Cobb GB 28 814.9
96 WR38 Julian Edelman NE 32 814.0
97 RB39 Matt Breida SF 23 812.0
98 WR39 Nelson Agholor PHI 25 809.8
99 WR40 Jordy Nelson OAK 33 808.0
100 TE11 David Njoku CLE 22 803.6
101 WR41 Sterling Shepard NYG 25 803.0
102 RB40 Adrian Peterson WAS 33 799.5
103 TE12 Jordan Reed WAS 28 795.0
104 WR42 Devin Funchess CAR 24 793.8
105 RB41 Sony Michel NE 23 793.0
106 QB11 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 36 792.2
107 QB12 Matthew Stafford DET 30 792.1
108 TE13 Mike Gesicki MIA 22 791.9
109 QB13 Marcus Mariota TEN 24 791.7
110 WR43 Will Fuller HOU 24 789.0
111 WR44 Michael Gallup DAL 22 773.4
112 RB42 Marlon Mack IND 22 788.5
113 RB43 Ty Montgomery GB 25 784.7
114 QB14 Patrick Mahomes KC 22 782.2
115 QB15 Jimmy Garoppolo SF 26 779.8
116 WR45 DeVante Parker MIA 25 779.8
117 QB16 Matt Ryan ATL 33 779.6
118 WR46 Kelvin Benjamin BUF 27 779.3
119 TE14 Ricky Seals-Jones ARI 23 776.1
120 TE15 O.J. Howard TB 23 773.9
121 QB17 Jared Goff LAR 23 768.6
122 QB18 Blake Bortles JAC 26 763.9
123 RB44 Rashaad Penny SEA 22 763.2
124 WR47 John Brown BAL 28 763.0
125 WR48 Mike Williams LAC 23 761.6
126 QB19 Alex Smith WAS 34 760.7
127 RB45 James White NE 26 760.1
128 WR49 Pierre Garcon SF 32 756.9
129 TE16 George Kittle SF 24 755.6
130 RB46 Jordan Wilkins IND 24 752.7
131 WR50 Kenny Golladay DET 28 751.4
132 WR51 Anthony Miller CHI 23 750.0
133 RB47 Frank Gore MIA 35 750.6
134 WR52 Dede Westbrook JAC 24 749.5
135 TE17 Austin Seferian-Jenkins JAC 25 749.4
136 TE18 Ben Watson NO 37 747.7
137 TE19 Vance McDonald PIT 28 740.3
138 QB20 Dak Prescott DAL 25 745.1
139 RB49 Giovani Bernard CIN 26 742.4
140 TE20 Cameron Brate TB 27 742.3
141 RB48 Austin Ekeler LAC 23 740.1
142 WR53 Josh Doctson WAS 25 736.8
143 QB21 Eli Manning NYG 37 734.9
144 RB50 Theo Riddick DET 27 734.6
145 WR54 Tyrell Williams LAC 26 733.9
146 QB22 Andy Dalton CIN 30 733.0
147 WR55 D.J. Moore CAR 21 732.8
148 WR56 Chris Godwin TB 22 732.5
149 TE21 Eric Ebron IND 25 732.3
150 RB51 Devontae Booker DEN 26 731.9
151 WR57 Keelan Cole JAC 25 731.1
152 WR58 John Ross CIN 22 730.8
153 WR59 Geronimo Allison GB 24 730.6
154 WR60 Cameron Meredith NO 25 728.1
155 RB52 Nick Chubb CLE 22 726.3
156 QB23 Jameis Winston TB 24 724.2
157 RB53 Doug Martin OAK 29 723.9
158 RB54 Nyheim Hines IND 21 723.1
159 WR61 James Washington PIT 22 719.9
160 WR62 Tyler Lockett SEA 25 717.1
161 RB55 Aaron Jones GB 23 713.8
162 WR63 Rishard Matthews TEN 28 712.5
163 TE22 Charles Clay BUF 29 710.4
164 WR64 Calvin Ridley ATL 23 705.6
165 QB24 Case Keenum DEN 30 704.6
166 TE23 Tyler Eifert CIN 27 702.0
167 WR65 Danny Amendola MIA 32 699.5
168 RB56 Corey Clement PHI 23 699.5
169 RB57 Jalen Richard OAK 24 696.6
170 WR66 Christian Kirk ARI 21 690.3
171 WR67 Courtland Sutton DEN 22 681.6
172 WR68 DeSean Jackson TB 31 681.5
173 WR69 Allen Hurns DAL 26 681.3
174 RB58 C.J. Anderson CAR 27 674.5
175 TE24 Hayden Hurst BAL 25 674.0
176 WR70 Ryan Grant IND 27 672.3
177 RB59 Latavius Murray MIN 28 667.6
178 RB60 James Conner PIT 23 654.1
179 WR71 Mohamed Sanu ATL 28 634.8
180 WR72 Donte Moncrief JAC 25 660.5
181 WR73 Ted Ginn Jr. NO 33 625.6
182 WR74 Cole Beasley DAL 29 639.0
183 RB61 Javorius Allen BAL 27 657.5
184 RB62 T.J. Yeldon JAC 24 633.5
185 RB63 Tavon Austin DAL 28 680.2
186 WR75 Mike Wallace PHI 32 653.0
187 WR76 Paul Richardson WAS 26 578.5
188 WR77 Taywan Taylor TEN 23 651.8
189 WR78 Brandon Marshall SEA 34 533.8
190 RB64 Kenneth Dixon BAL 24 648.3
191 RB65 Chase Edmonds ARI 22 597.3
192 RB66 John Kelly LAR 21 587.4
193 RB67 Jonathan Williams NO 24 502.0
194 RB68 Spencer Ware KC 26 601.5
195 RB69 C.J. Prosise SEA 24 654.4
196 RB70 LeGarrette Blount DET 31 617.4
197 RB71 Rob Kelley WAS 25 589.5
198 WR79 Martavis Bryant OAK 26 602.5
199 WR80 Tre'Quan Smith NO 31 593.0
200 RB72 Samaje Perine WAS 22 550.3

Running Backs

Most notably, Ezekiel Elliott has fallen out of my top four backs following the loss of C Travis Frederick. The loss of one four-time Pro Bowl center alone isn't enough for me to knock Zeke down, but the status of his fellow linemen along with Frederick's indefinite absence is enough to give me pause against what figures to be one more difficult schedules for a running back this season. LT Tyron Smith has a history of back injuries. RG Zach Martin has already gotten hurt, although he is expected back for the opener. If the Cowboys' defense takes the next step in 2018 (they have the talent on that side of the ball to do so) and the offensive line can stay healthy for the most part, then Elliott should get the volume necessary to make me look like a fool. But for all of Elliott's supporters who feel he will simply see 300-plus carries just because he is the only offensive weapon Dallas has, allow me to remind those people the Cowboys have to be able to make stops on defense and create holes for Zeke to lead the league in touches.

Reading too much into preseason anything is asking for trouble, but anyone still holding out on Christian McCaffrey because he's part of a "committee" probably needs to rethink their stance. The Panthers' first-team offense has run 66 plays through three games with Cam Newton and McCaffrey has been in on 59 of them. C.J. Anderson has the other seven. Either OC Norv Turner is trying to run McCaffrey into the ground as soon as possible or Carolina believes last year's No. 8 overall pick is their new workhorse. The only thing keeping his grade from moving into the top 10 is an offensive line I believe may end up being among the two or three worst in the NFL. If others feel Turner will simply turn to McCaffrey more often in the passing game as a result, they have my blessing to take him inside the top 10. For what it's worth, I currently have McCaffrey projected for 217 carries and 100 targets. Conversely, I have Anderson at 120 and 24, respectively.

On-again, off-again Ö I'm back on the Rex Burkhead train (as it relates to him being a weekly difference-maker in fantasy). I've always been a big fan of his real-world talent. If Jeff Howe of The Athletic was accurate in his recent assessment that Burkhead (and his knee) was treated with kid gloves this month because the Patriots know his value to the offense this year, then Burkhead's ceiling is immense. Already expected to be the goal-line back in New England, the former Nebraska standout could legitimately be a top 20 running back in fantasy if he simply maintains that role and stays healthy long enough this season to reach 200 touches. It's easy to forget that Burkhead narrowly outscored Dion Lewis in fantasy on a per-game basis for the brief time the two backs were both healthy during the second half of last season. While James White will have his usual satellite back role in the offense, there will likely be a lot of leads to protect once again in New England this season and White isn't going to get a lot of work in those situations. Sony Michel has likely missed enough practice time - he returned to practice Aug. 27 - and was reportedly struggling prior to undergoing a knee scope earlier this month to give Burkhead enough time to stake his claim to lead-back duties. Things donít start off favorably with games against Houston and Jacksonville to begin the season, but those two contests may be as difficult as it gets for the New England running game.

The statistical evidence this preseason is pretty strong against Ronald Jones. Owners would be hard-pressed to find anything positive written by the press about the rookie, other than maybe how he looked on his 37-yard reception against Detroit in the team's dress rehearsal game against Detroit. He can't run (18 yards on 18 carries), he can't catch, he can't pass block, etc. Did I leave anything out? Barring an injury to Peyton Barber, the rookie probably isn't going to be the high-upside RB3 folks pegged him to be in early drafts, but before anyone declares him a bust, take a look at this Twitter thread and check out the accompanying comments from Adam Spinks. Running backs as explosive as Jones don't average one yard per carry unless they are dancing all day behind the line of scrimmage (he's not) or getting next to no help from his offensive line. To their credit, the Buccaneers have not called the rookie out or reduced his preseason snaps as a result of his "struggles." Barber is likely going to remain a factor all season long, but I'm still of the belief Jones will become the lead back in this offense before the end of the season. Buy, but buy as low as possible.

Wide Receivers

I took part in my first TFC draft of the season Sunday night and had the opportunity to pick between Mike Evans and Stefon Diggs at the 2-3 turn (or pick them both and put off getting my RB2 until the 4-5 turn, which is something I do not want to do). I ultimately chose Diggs in part because I've got my eyes set on something bigger than just trying to win each of my TFC leagues this year. If he "hits" and stays healthy - durability has been his only question mark for some time - the evidence is starting to mount that he is ready to break into the elite group of receivers in the league. To offer a bit of that evidence statistically, Diggs has been off the injury report in 21 games and on the injury report for six over the last two seasons. In his "healthy" games, he is the WR5 in PPR points per game (17) - a mark that trails only Antonio Brown (21.3), Odell Beckham Jr. (18.5), Keenan Allen (17.1) and Julio Jones (17.1).

The case for Evans is simple: he has massive scoring upside - 12 touchdowns in two of his four seasons - and he is nearly impossible for defensive backs to match physically at 6-5 and 231 pounds. The case against Evans: he has been a highly inefficient receiver throughout his career, he has a supporting cast capable of stealing targets from him and touchdowns by their very nature are highly unpredictable, especially when we consider he is almost certain to be catching passes from two different quarterbacks in September alone. (He will also draw Marshon Lattimore out of the gate. Evans totaled six catches for 68 yards and no scores in two games against New Orleans last season.) And for the edge Evans should have in contested catches and near the end zone, Diggs led all receivers in contested catch rate (64 percent). He also owns the best red zone receiver rating in the league since 2016.

To my earlier point about "something bigger than the league prize," I'm trying to win $200,000 in this format, not just $1,000. In my other high-stakes leagues, there is no grand prize - only a league championship prize. In other words, I am shooting for the monster upside in the TFC and simply trying to outwit 11 other owners in my other leagues.

Perhaps no player has seen his stock price over the last month or so than Marquise Goodwin, although it's hardly a surprise considering every beat reporter covering the team can't stop talking about how obvious it is he is Jimmy Garoppolo's favorite target. I'm completely on board with him as a high-upside WR3, but people have seemingly lost their minds when it comes to the reality of the situation. Sure, he may end up with 70 to 80 receptions, catch at least six touchdowns and stay healthy all season - but he's being drafted at his ceiling, which is usually a poor approach to take. Let's try to remember Goodwin couldn't stay healthy consistently in four years with Buffalo and checks in at 5-9 and 180 pounds. He scored twice on 56 catches last season and has seven touchdowns in five years in the league. Owners hoping for a fast start from him also might be disappointed, as he figures to draw primary coverage from Xavier Rhodes, Casey Hayward and Patrick Peterson in three of his first five games (assuming those defenses identify him - and not Garcon - as the No. 1 receiver in San Francisco).

It goes without saying while the season-ending knee injury to Marqise Lee hurts the Jaguars, but it provides a bit more clarity in their receiving corps. So who benefits the most? (Leonard Fournette, of course Ö wait, no? Too much?) Keelan Cole? Dede Westbrook? Donte Moncrief? Moncrief seemingly gains the least of the group because he appears destined to be the designated red zone target who will see less action in the middle of the field. Cole was running with the starters before Lee's injury and should only see more targets, but will he be asked to run shorter routes? Westbrook made his name as a vertical receiver at Oklahoma, but he has seemingly been groomed as more of a short and intermediate wideout in Jacksonville. If the Jaguars donít change his job description, it could be Westbrook - and not Cole - who becomes the new Lee. Whether it actually ends up making much of a difference in fantasy is another story. Lee led Jacksonville with only 56 catches last season despite seeing 96 targets. Cole finished with 42 and 81, respectively.

One theme I continue to remind myself of this drafting season is the depth at receiver. For example, I still remain quite high on Cameron Meredith, but owners need to realize it's probably going to take a bit of time for him to be what the Saints envisioned him to be. I have him listed at No. 154 because owners may not get a decent contribution from him until at least October. Geronimo Allison could very well be the next James Jones, circa 2012 or 2015. Rishard Matthews was just cleared to practice, but he has WR4 upside if he is asked to fill (and ultimately succeeds) in filling the Robert Woods role in new OC Matt LaFleur's offense. He was No. 123 on my initial Big Board. Danny Amendola is a realistic candidate to catch 70-plus passes if he can manage to stay relatively healthy all season. Calvin Ridley drew pre-draft comparisons to Marvin Harrison. Courtland Sutton could finish with at least seven touchdowns. The point to be made here is that all of these receivers can be drafted well into the double-digit rounds.

First TFC Draft Thoughts

In my aforementioned TFC draft, it was stunning to see the likes of Randall Cobb (10.12) and Carson Wentz (11.01) fall in my lap as my WR4 and QB2. As much as folks in the industry like to talk about drafting early in order to take advantage of the unprepared and finding value, I'd argue there is a lot of merit to drafting late and letting others overreact to what they are saw (or didn't see) in the preseason. Sure, Cobb may get traded (doubtful) and isn't the most durable player, but he was a popular seventh-round sleeper pick about two weeks ago. Wentz may not be ready for the season opener and is due for some regression after posting an unsustainable 7.5 percent touchdown rate last season, but can we really say he isn't a top-five quarterback in the league when healthy? Other players that I think fell due to recency bias include: Dalvin Cook (2.06), Jerick McKinnon (3.12), Demaryius Thomas (4.12), Corey Davis (6.01), Allen Robinson (6.10), Isaiah Crowell (9.05), Matt Breida (12.09), DeVante Parker (15.03) and Mike Gesicki (17.08).

The draft also served as a great reminder of staying mostly true to my board in the middle rounds. By that, I don't mean simply taking the next player on the list. I mean understanding what is still available and what is not. For some odd reason, tight ends were coming off the board at a clip I can't remember ever seeing (multiple teams drafted three and one team ended up with five). As much as I wanted a backup for Trey Burton, I wasn't going to pass on potential upside at running back and receiver in order to snag a player I should not have to before Burton's bye in Week 5, especially when at least two or three reasonable options could very well be on the waiver wire over the next week or two.

In closing Ö

A subject I plan on covering's in next week's Bold Predictions is how the league's re-emphasis on downfield contact (this is an issue that seems to get reemphasized every three or four years by the officials and/or competition committee) on receivers is going to lead to another offensive explosion. I mention this only because the stars are aligning well for Ben Roethlisberger to enjoy his best season since 2014 (QB6 finish). The Steelers reportedly plan on embracing the no-huddle more than they ever have in 2018 and Big Ben has three receivers capable of putting up 100 yards and a touchdown in a game. But it obviously goes beyond that. As much as I'm down on Le'Veon Bell, he is another player of hitting those marks as a running back. And let's not forget Vance McDonald, who could truly make this offense nearly unstoppable if he stays healthy enough for at least 12 games. It could be argued no quarterback has a better overall supporting cast.

A player I'm choosing not to include on this board but may target late in TFC drafts moving forward is Alfred Morris. He doesn't have a guaranteed role and there's a slim chance he doesn't make the team, which is why he's getting left off. Obviously, Jerick McKinnon is the kind of running back HC Kyle Shanahan wants to build his offense around, while Matt Breida can serve as the Tevin Coleman-like changeup. What if one or neither of them isn't ready for Week 1? What if their preseason injuries were a harbinger of things to come? In 20-round drafts such as this one, it makes little sense not to use late-round picks on wild-cards, and Morris is definitely one. Most owners already know his history with Shanahan. Would it really surprise anyone if he ends getting the goal-line work in San Francisco?

FFPC Big Board

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.