Kyren Williams continues to produce, even with Blake Corum hot
on his tail. In Week 15, he scored two more touchdowns while averaging
5.2 yards per carry on 15 rushes, adding a 10-yard reception along
the way. Those two rushing scores gave Williams his third straight
season with double-digit rushing touchdowns, with three weeks
still to play.
Williams’ total of 44 touchdowns over his last 42 games
is the product of excellent vision, elite tackle-breaking ability
(one broken tackle per 11.4 rushing attempts), and strong hands
as a receiver (just two drops over the last two seasons). Playing
in one of the league’s best offenses certainly hasn’t
hurt, either. There’s no indication his role is shrinking,
and while Seattle is a difficult matchup for running backs (7th
fewest FPts/G allowed), Williams’ central role in the offense
— particularly near the goal line — keeps him locked
in as a must-start.
It’s rare for a quarterback with virtually no rushing output
(and, in Stafford’s case, -8 rushing yards on the season) to provide
elite fantasy production. But pair Matthew Stafford with Puka
Nacua and Davante Adams, and 37 touchdowns later, here we are.
Stafford ranks 3rd among quarterbacks in FPts/G, leads the league
in touchdown passes, owns the best TD-to-INT ratio (37:5), and
sits 2nd in passing yards. There’s been little reason to doubt
his production — until now.
That concern arrives with Davante Adams, who is doubtful with
a hamstring injury and expected to miss Week 16. Seattle has allowed
just 15.9 FPts/G to opposing quarterbacks, and in their Week 11
meeting — even with Adams active — Stafford was held
to just 130 passing yards and 13.2 fantasy points. Taken together,
Stafford is no longer the weekly lock he’s been for most
of the season and should be viewed as more of a borderline QB1
in a tough Thursday night matchup.
Meanwhile, Blake Corum continued his remarkable efficiency on
limited touches, turning 11 carries into 71 yards and a touchdown.
It marked his third straight game with at least 70 rushing yards
and his third straight game finding the end zone.
That production came against a Lions front allowing the 4th fewest
FPts/G to running backs, suggesting the Seattle matchup alone
doesn’t eliminate Corum’s upside. Still, this game
doesn’t project to be the same kind of shootout as last
week, and with Davante Adams sidelined, the Seahawks can afford
to allocate more attention to the backfield. Corum carries legitimate
flex upside, but also a low floor if efficiency finally cools
on Thursday night.
Tight end Colby Parkinson has now scored six touchdowns in his
last six games after finding the end zone twice more last week.
His snap share appears to be peaking as well, playing a season-high
86% of snaps against Detroit. Parkinson set additional season
highs with five receptions and 75 receiving yards in the process.
While touchdowns have driven much of his recent fantasy value,
he’s recorded at least four receptions in four of his last
six games.
With Adams out, there should be additional targets available,
though it’s fair to question how much Parkinson’s
red-zone success was aided by defenses focusing on Adams. Seattle
has been relatively stingy to tight ends near the goal line, allowing
just five touchdowns to the position, and will be more alert to
Parkinson after his recent surge. Still, the Seahawks have surrendered
the 2nd most receptions to tight ends this season (91), opening
the door for Parkinson to challenge — or exceed —
his recent season-high reception totals.
Overall, Parkinson may carry more floor than ceiling this week
compared to his recent touchdown-heavy stretch, placing him squarely
in fringe TE1 territory for Thursday night.
Fade: N/A
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Rashid Shaheed has begun to percolate in the Seahawks offense,
following a 4-67-0 line two weeks ago with a 5-74-0 performance
last week (plus a -3 yard rush). He’s heating up at the
right time, drawing a matchup with a Rams defense whose primary
vulnerability has come against wide receivers.
Recently, Los Angeles has been burned for over 30 fantasy points
by both Amon-Ra St. Brown and Michael Wilson, while secondary
options and field-stretching receivers similar to Shaheed have
also posted usable fantasy days (Tez Johnson 10.8 FPts, Jalen
Coker 15.4 FPts, Jameson Williams 22.3 FPts). Shaheed averages
14.8 yards per reception for his career and leads all healthy
Seahawks with a 12.7 aDOT since joining the team. That combination
of role and matchup makes him an upside flex option.
Dating back to 2022, when he started six games with Carolina,
Sam Darnold has been highly efficient as a passer, posting a 100.4
passer rating, 8.2 YPA, and a 5.9% touchdown rate — all
well above league average. The fantasy production has followed
at times, including several spike weeks this season against favorable
opponents.
The Rams, however, represent a far tougher test, allowing only
the 19th most points to opposing quarterbacks. Compounding the
issue, Darnold will be without left tackle Charles Cross, who
suffered a hamstring injury late in last week’s win over
Indianapolis.
Los Angeles’ defensive scheme has also given Darnold consistent
problems. Last postseason, his Vikings were eliminated by the
Rams as he absorbed nine sacks. Earlier this season, the Rams
intercepted him four times in his worst outing of the year. Until
Darnold proves he can overcome this matchup, he’s best left
on fantasy benches.
Running backs Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet have produced
nearly identical fantasy output this season (9.3 and 8.7 FPts/G),
though it’s been far more disappointing for Walker, who
carried a much higher draft-day cost. While both backs remain
capped by the committee, Walker has struggled mightily of late,
totaling just 5.7 fantasy points over his last two games while
averaging 2.5 yards per carry.
Walker has scored just once with Charbonnet healthy this season,
leaving him heavily reliant on yardage alone. He’s topped
100 rushing yards only once — and that came while Charbonnet
was sidelined. That’s unlikely to change against a Rams
defense that has allowed only Derrick Henry to reach the century
mark and is giving up just 78 rushing yards per game to opposing
backfields.
Walker did manage a rare productive outing against the Rams in
Week 11, scoring while adding 67 rushing yards and 44 receiving
yards, but a repeat performance appears unlikely — especially
without OT Charles Cross — making him an unappealing option
in fantasy semifinals.
Charbonnet has reached double-digit fantasy points twice as often
as Walker when both have been healthy, but he remains touchdown
dependent. With the Rams surrendering just five total rushing
touchdowns all season, this is a poor matchup for him as well.
The Eagles’ passing game was a mess for much of the season
with A.J. Brown falling out of “startable” range at
one point, but things have really picked up over the past five
weeks for the star wide receiver. Brown has now produced double-digit
PPR fantasy points in five straight contests, but more importantly,
he’s seen 10 or more targets in four of those five contests.
He did only see two targets in this past week’s blowout
win over the Raiders, but much of that can be put on the game
script as the Eagles got out to an early lead and didn’t
need the passing game.
Hurts, meanwhile, was able to throw three touchdown passes in
just 15 total attempts in the thrashing of the Raiders, and has
been usable for fantasy for most of the season despite his struggles,
at times, in throwing catchable passes.
The duo now faces a Commanders’ defense that has given
up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs and the eighth-most
to WRs this season. This is a very exploitable matchup and one
that fantasy managers should be excited about for their playoffs.
The other player who’s become extremely involved in the
Eagles’ passing game in recent weeks is tight end Dallas
Goedert. Goedert caught a pair of touchdowns in this past week’s
contest—his second two-score performance of the season—and
he’s now seen 17 passes come his way over the past two weeks.
This would normally indicate that we should be firing him up as
a locked-in top-five player at the position, but unfortunately
this recent hot stretch came after a long cold stretch. Goedert
had previously failed to reach even 10 fantasy points in a game
since all the way back in Week 8.
This matchup against the Commanders is a good one as they’ve
given up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends
this season, but Goedert remains a boom-or-bust option most weeks.
While the other members of the Eagles’ passing game have
all had their big games in recent weeks, we’re still waiting
for DeVonta Smith to get back to being a solid fantasy asset here
in 2025. He’s averaging just over eight fantasy points per
game over his past five games—one of the ugliest stretches
of his career—and he’s just not seeing the volume
he needs to get out of that rut.
Sure, we could see Smith get into the end zone this week against
this bad Commanders defense, but he’s unlikely to be a huge
difference-maker for fantasy managers unless the Eagles completely
shift their offensive philosophy. He’s a Flex option at
best this week.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Terry McLaurin’s season has been destroyed by injuries, but he
continues to produce whenever he’s actually on the field. McLaurin
got into the end zone this past week, for the second time in the
three games since returning from injury. While he only saw four
targets come his way in the Commanders’ road victory over the
Giants, McLaurin has proven to be the apple of Marcus Mariota’s
eye, and he’s really the only player in this offense who fantasy
managers can feel confident in.
Fantasy managers who made it this far in their season and are
still streaming the quarterback position could consider going
with Marcus Mariota in this week’s matchup with the Bills.
The Commanders’ QB has now produced usable performances
in every game he’s started and finished for the team, including
this past week’s 211-yard, one touchdown performance against
the Giants, where he also rushed for 43 yards.
Mariota might not be Jayden Daniels as a runner at this point
in his career, but he’s still got some juice in his legs and he’s
been consistently able to exceed 200 yards through the air, so
he’s a decent dual-threat option who’s facing a bad Philadelphia
secondary that has given up the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing
QBs this season.
Fade: Commanders’ Running Backs
Fantasy managers got a taste of what the Commanders’ rookie
running back could do in a backfield Jacory Croskey-Merritt dominated
when he carried the ball 18 times for 96 yards and a touchdown
in this past week’s victory over the Giants. While it might
be tempting to fire him up again this week, this is not the time
to be fixated solely on one game of performance.
Chris
Rodriguez Jr. is expected to be back on the field and Jeremy
McNichols continues to take a few touches each week as well.
This leads to a backfield that will almost certainly be cluttered
and just too risky for fantasy managers to trust in this important
playoff week. If Croskey-Merritt can fend off the other members
of the backfield this week then we may re-analyze things in Week
17, but for now this is a situation to avoid if at all possible.
Despite how it initially looked in Denver, it appears that Christian
Watson (chest, shoulder) avoided serious injury and is on track
to play Saturday night in Chicago, though that’s not yet
confirmed. His presence would make a huge difference -- just look
how the offense struggled to move the ball versus the Broncos
after he went down -- but you can’t expect him to be at
100% so quickly. That could create more opportunities for Reed,
who entered this season as Green Bay’s top wideout before
fracturing his collarbone in Week 2. He returned in the first
game against Chicago two weeks ago, posting 53 yards, and he had
55 yards receiving to tie for team-high honors last Sunday. While
the Bears do some things right defensively, their pass defense
is middling at best, as is their pass rush. With questions about
Green Bay’s own defensive capabilities in the wake of the
Micah Parsons (knee) injury, more could be placed on the offense’s
shoulders. Reed is an intriguing flex with upside.
Right up until his deep shot to Watson, which was intercepted
by Patrick Surtain II and doubled as the play the wideout was
injured on, Love was carving up one of the NFL’s top defenses.
Minus his field stretcher, not to mention his right tackle, Love’s
efficiency faded after that, and he ended the day with 276 yards,
1 TD, and 2 INTs in what was just his second game this season
with more INTs than TDs. He fared better against Chicago in Week
14 with 234 yards and three touchdowns along with one ugly pick.
While Love carries QB1 potential into this matchup, there are
two main causes for concern: 1) it’s still unknown if Watson and/or
Zach Tom (knee) will play, and both are key cogs for the team’s
success offensively, and 2) we don’t know how Matt LaFleur will
approach the rematch in terms of trying to protect his defense,
perhaps by running the ball more and prioritizing possession.
With the emergence of Watson, and the return of Reed (and, to
a lesser extent, Matthew Golden), Doubs has been the odd-man out.
In his last six games, he’s had less than 25 yards four times,
and that includes being shut out against Chicago. If Watson is
inactive, you could recalibrate the outlook with Doubs at least
having a shot at posting decent numbers. Otherwise, keep away.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Needless to say, it’s been a disappointing year for Moore, who
is currently on pace for a career-low 688 yards (his current low-water
mark is 788 yards as a rookie in 2018). He’s had two multi-score
games in the past month, however, showing there is some upside
available. The flip side is that in between those two games he
had a combined three catches for 13 yards -- he actually had negative
yardage in Week 14 against Green Bay. What’s even more important
to his status this Saturday is the very real possibility that
the Bears will be without Rome Odunze (foot), who has missed the
last two games and re-aggravated his foot injury before facing
Cleveland, and Luther Burden III (ankle), who departed the Browns
game with an injury. Even Cole Kmet (ankle) appears iffy. With
that in mind, Moore holds risk/reward appeal as a flex or even
WR3.
Williams played well versus the Browns, highlighted by an insane
degree of difficulty throw across his body to Moore in the back
of the end zone. The numbers still weren’t great, though,
finishing with 242 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs. In Week 14 against
the Packers, it was clear Ben Johnson wanted no part of Williams
in the pocket, but that could change without the game-wrecking
abilities of Parsons to worry about. Still, as we’ve pointed
out in previous weeks, Williams has only had truly impactful statistical
efforts against the league’s worst pass defenses, and it’s
dubious the Packers will slip to that level even with such a high-profile
injury. While Williams has a higher ceiling than he did two weeks
ago, he’d still be a dodgy choice on Saturday night.
Kincaid (knee) got off to a strong start this year, scoring in
three of Buffalo’s first four games, but he’s dealt with a pair
of injuries that have limited him to five appearances in the team’s
last nine outings. In two games since returning from his most
recent absence, Kincaid has tallied seven receptions, 75 yards,
and a touchdown -- running mate Dawson Knox totaled a combined
9-130-2 line, signaling more of a collective approach at the position.
Chicago had success versus Cleveland with their own tight end
tandem of Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet accounting for 91 yards
on a half-dozen grabs. Assuming Kincaid is alright after missing
practice early in the week with a knee issue, he has some low-end
TE1 potential against a struggling Browns defense.
Allen has not been in a giving mood when it comes to his wide
receivers recently, and that includes his top target on the outside,
Shakir. The Boise State product has just eight receptions, 86
yards, and a touchdown in his last three games combined. It’s
fair to call that a slump, at least from a production standpoint.
Enter the Cleveland Slumpbusters. A week ago, D.J. Moore entered
play having posted less than 20 yards receiving in four of his
last five games. Facing the Browns, Moore put up a 4-69-2 line.
The week before, Cleveland became the first time to allow Cam
Ward to throw for multiple TDs in the same game. This doesn’t
look like the same defense we saw earlier this season, and Shakir
could take advantage as your WR3/flex.
Fade: N/A
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
There isn’t much to like about the current Browns offense.
Even Judkins, listed as a no-brainer, really only carries that
designation because of his usage -- although facing a defense
that gave up 9.8 yards per carry last week doesn’t hurt.
That being said, the one player that flashed during last Sunday’s
disastrous loss in Chicago was Bond (dramatic pause), Isaiah Bond.
On a day when Cleveland managed 192 yards of offense, Bond accounted
for 89 of them on a pair of long receptions. He matched Jerry
Jeudy for second on the team in targets (4), though that was well
behind Fannin (14). Clearly, relying on a rookie-to-rookie connection
at fantasy playoff time is a risky move, but he could be a desperation
lottery ticket.
The Chargers’ passing game has been ugly for a good while
now, with no one really standing out as a must-start fantasy asset
over the second-half of the season. That could—and likely
will—change this week as they now face a Cowboys’
defense that has been horrible and has no playoff aspirations.
No team has conceded more fantasy points to opposing QBs this
season than the Cowboys, and it’s really not even close.
Dallas has given up 2.7 more points per game to the position than
any other team, and they truly don’t have any “success”
stories to point to where they even held a QB in check.
Yes, Herbert has been bad, and yes it’s an important game—that’s
why we’re firing him up against the worst defense in the
league.
Practically everyone on opposing offenses is usable when they
face the Cowboys and that should be the case for running back
Omarion Hampton as well. The Chargers’ rookie returned from
injury in Week 14 and had a significant role. He’s now touched
the ball 30 times over the two games since he returned and he
faces a Cowboys’ defense that has conceded the sixth-most
points to the position on the year.
This once highly-productive wide receiver duo of Ladd McConkey
and Keenan Allen has taken a big step back in recent weeks. McConkey
in particular has seen his usage drop off a cliff. He hasn’t
seen more than six targets come his way in a game since all the
way back in Week 10. Meanwhile, Allen saw seven targets this past
week (which he turned into just 36 yards), but he had previously
been held to six or fewer targets himself since Week 7.
This isn’t to say that McConkey and Allen are completely
unusable this week, because they are—anyone is against Dallas—but
we have to seriously question their ceilings given that they just
aren’t seeing the ball come their way enough.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Running back Javonte Williams has been dealing with a neck injury
that kept him limited in practice this week, so fantasy managers
will need to keep an eye on his status heading into this weekend’s
game, but he should be a viable RB2 for fantasy if he does get
into the field.
It hasn’t always been flashy, but Williams has delivered
double-digit PPR fantasy points in all but two games this season,
and his usage on the ground makes him an extremely trustworthy
fantasy asset with all the money on the line.
The Cowboys’ banged-up offense is headlined by wide receiver
CeeDee Lamb, who missed practice on Thursday with an illness and
is now looking like a serious question mark heading into this
matchup. Lamb would normally be a player who we would be confident
putting into our lineup as long as he’s active, but things
become particularly complicated now that the Cowboys’ playoff
aspirations have been dashed.
Managers will need to pay very close attention to Lamb’s
status and the phrasing used around what his potential usage might
be. If we hear anything about a “pitch count,” then
this is probably a situation to avoid.
With the Cowboys now playing solely for pride, the team may opt
to take their foot off the gas pedal on offense and Dak Prescott
could end up being the most-affected player by that decision.
Prescott failed to throw a touchdown pass this past week in Dallas’
loss to Minnesota and while he’s probably still a startable
low-end QB1 for teams that don’t have other great options,
he is now facing a Chargers defense that has given up the third-fewest
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks so far this season. With
CeeDee Lamb potentially missing the game due to injury, Prescott
becomes a much bigger question mark than he has been throughout
most of the season.
I would have loved to give at least one “favorite” here, but with
Brady Cook starting again at QB, it’s hard to find positivity
even in the case of Breece Hall. Last Sunday, Hall only had three
more carries than Isaiah Davis, who also outgained him 58-23.
The Jaguars clearly game planned to shut down Hall and had the
personnel to do it, so I do think he’ll put up a better stat line
in this one. How much better depends on how much Davis gets mixed
in against a vulnerable defense, but still a defense that can
bring the safeties up and stack the box. That would force short
throws from Cook which make Mitchell and Williams the beneficiaries,
but remember it is Cook throwing them the ball.
Cook threw for 5.3 yards per reception last week with 3 interceptions
sprinkled in. He shouldn’t be in the vicinity of anyone’s lineup
this week, even in super-flex formats. As for Ruckert, he just
signed a contract extension, but mostly for his blocking skills.
Avoid even with Mason Taylor out once again.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
With DeVaughn Vele out this week, Olave is likely going to be
a target monster even as the Jets attempt to roll coverage his
way. The result could be 12-15 targets and a couple of big plays.
When Vele left the game last weekend, Tyler Shough turned to Olave
almost exclusively. I think he’s a top ten play at the receiver
position this weekend, if not top five.
Vele’s absence makes Johnson the second option in the receiving
tree with little competition since Rashid Shaheed is now in Seattle.
The Jets are middle of the pack (17th) in terms of fantasy points
allowed to tight ends, but given the expected target volume, he’s
a borderline TE1 this week, putting him squarely on the starting
fence.
Shough is a decent option then if for no other reason than Trevor
Lawrence just destroyed the Jets pass defense in Week 15 (330
passing yards, 5 TDs). You could do worse than starting Shough
this week if you had Mahomes or if your starting QB is otherwise
banged up.
Both Alvin Kamara and Devin Neal look to be out this week due
to injuries. That leaves Audric Estime and Evan Hull as the primary
two ball carriers for the Saints. Don’t overthink this because
the Jets are the defense on the other side of the ball. You don’t
want to get knocked out of the playoffs because you started either
of the two remaining backs noted here.
I know Mayfield has taken a step backwards this season in terms
of fantasy production, but he’s also rarely had Mike Evans, Emeka
Egbuka, and Chris Godwin on the field at the same time. Evans,
in particular, looked healthy last week with 130+ yards in receiving
and I think his return will make Egbuka more productive again.
I am looking for 50+ points scored in this game and I think Mayfield
will be a sneaky start in a good spot.
Irving is included in the “on the fence” category here because
he is being pulled at the goal line for Sean Tucker. You are likely
going to still start Irving as your RB2 no matter what, but expectations
should be tempered based on Tucker’s role and the remaining, although
diminished role of Rachaad White in the passing game. As noted
above, I do think Egbuka and Godwin ultimately benefit from the
return of Mike Evans. Egbuka had over 60 receiving yards for only
the second time since Week 5, which is encouraging. Still, there
are multiple mouths to feed so one of Egbuka or Godwin could be
left out in the cold.
Fade: None
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
We don’t know how Young will ultimately perform against the Buccaneers
as this is the teams’ first meeting of the season (the second
is in two weeks). What we do know is that the Buccaneers pass
defense often turns QBs into weekly stars as they rank next to
last in points allowed to the position. Only the Cowboys are worse.
With Jalen Coker healthy and serving as a complement to Tetairoa
McMillan, I would expect Young to pick apart a poor defense and
put up borderline QB1 numbers. There are better QB starts out
there, but you could do a lot worse.
The only reason McMillan and Coker aren’t “favorites”
in a very favorable match-up is that it’s become difficult
to know which WR will shine from week to week since the targets
got diverted from being McMillan-centric to being more volatile.
I feel confident that at least one receiver will perform well
given how swiss-cheese like the Bucs pass defense has been, but
with no one receiver getting more than four targets last week,
the water is a bit muddy.
The Bucs run defense is better than the pass D, so temper expectations
for Rico Dowdle on the ground. He’s still a worthy starter
as a RB2, but his value overall has fallen back to earth after
his explosive two weeks back in October.
You never know when Chuba Hubbard is going to sneak up and get
half of the RB touches in Carolina, but last week he was out-touched
by Dowdle, 17-9. He’s playing most of the third downs, but
I just can’t recommend him beyond a desperation flex play
at this point.
The Vikings scored 34 points during their impressive road victory
over the Cowboys, but even that wasn’t enough to make Justin
Jefferson or Jordan Addison useful for fantasy purposes.
Jefferson was held to just two receptions, which he converted
for 22 yards, on just eight targets. Addison didn’t fare
much better as he saw the ball come his way just twice as well.
Addison did convert those two targets into two catches for 66
yards—much better than Jefferson—but still completely
useless from a fantasy perspective.
The reality is that, as things stand right now, no one in this
Vikings’ offense is worthy of trusting for your fantasy
playoffs. It’s understandable if you want to keep Jefferson
in your lineup as a Flex option just given his name brand, but
if he was practically any other player in the league, he’d
be riding the pine for most managers in this must-win situation.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
It feels odd to put Wan’Dale Robinson in the “no-brainer”
category given his historically subpar fantasy value, but it’s
undeniable at this point that Robinson has become a trustworthy
borderline WR1/2. It’s not just that he’s getting
it done with fluky touchdowns or big plays, either—Robinson
is getting the volume of a mid-to-high-end WR1. If he could pair
that with high per-catch efficiency then we’d be talking
about him in the same conversation as the top pass-catchers in
the league.
This is a tough matchup against a Vikings’ defense that
has given up the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing WRs this
season, but make no mistake about it—Robinson needs to be
in your lineup.
Jaxson Dart got back to doing what he had been doing earlier
this season, when he threw for 246 yards and a pair of touchdowns,
with one interception, in addition to rushing for 63 yards. Dart
has become a true dual-threat QB and has developed into a low-end
fantasy QB1 despite being without Malik Nabers. He’d be a “favorite”
if the matchup was better, but unfortunately, he’s up against
a Vikings defense that has given up the league’s fewest fantasy
points to QBs this season. That alone doesn’t make him unusable,
but he becomes much less of a locked-in starter given the matchup.
The Giants’ backfield was one that we had been avoiding since
Cam Skattebo’s injury, due to its split nature, but things seemingly
got a lot clearer this past week. Tyrone Tracy touched the ball
18 times compared to Devin Singletary’s six, and he was much more
productive with his touches, as well. Tracy may not be a must-start
due to this still likely being a 60/40-or-so split, but we should
feel much more confident about him now than we did before. He’s
an RB2 with RB1 potential if he continues to see the volume.
A season-high 10-target game has Darius Slayton back in some
fantasy conversations. Those talks should be short and sweet,
and finished with a, “No,” as this is just not a situation
that fantasy managers should be trusting.
Slayton had seen four or fewer targets in all but one game prior
to this Week 15 spike and he’s scored just once all season.
Perhaps most importantly, despite the 10 targets, Slayton converted
just four of them for 53 yards against a bad Commanders secondary.
He now faces a Minnesota defense that has conceded the third-fewest
fantasy points to opposing WRs this season.
When Gardner Minshew entered the game last Sunday, he targeted
Kelce on 3 of his 4 throws including the interception that ultimately
ended the game. That trend is likely to continue as while the
Chiefs will look to run the ball first and foremost, there is
little evidence to suggest they’ll be able to do that effectively.
As such, I think double digit targets for Kelce is highly realistic
against a defense that ranks bottom five in fantasy points allowed
this season.
There’s plenty of risk in starting Gardner Minshew in the midst
of fantasy playoffs given that he’s a complete unknown in this
offense. That said, that match-up is a good one (see above) and
that makes Rice (if he’s active) and Worthy potentially good plays
as well. It is also possible that the Chiefs defense stifles the
Titans, creates turnover, and allows the offense to be conservative
to preserve victory. That’s why we’re on the fence with so many
players here. As for Pacheco, look for 15 carries minimum, and
maybe flex-level production as a result.
You might think starting Hunt against a defense ranking in the
bottom ten of fantasy points allowed to running backs would be
a no-brainer, but Hunt has looked slow and methodical the past
couple of weeks leading us to wonder if he’s hit a wall.
Pacheco, while one-dimensional, also appears to have more juice
at this point and he should get the nod as lead runner, leaving
Hunt as something of an afterthought.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
There haven’s been many bright spots for the Tennessee
offense this season, but Pollard’s past two weeks show you
what he can do when his team leans on him to remain competitive
in games. Pollard in those games gained 273 yards from scrimmage
and scored 3 TDs. The Chiefs are sixth against the run from a
fantasy standpoint, but Pollard averaged 6.0 yards per carry against
the top ranked run defense three weeks ago. I think he’s
in must start territory for the remainder of the season.
Slowly but surely, Ward is gaining traction with respect to being
at least mildly fantasy relevant. Two weeks ago, he had not thrown
for more than one TD pass in any game this season. Since then,
he’s thrown for multiple TDs in back to back games. He might
be start-worthy in super-flex leagues at this point, but that’s
about it.
Spears is a clear fade after getting 4 carries or less in four
of his past five games. The Titans do like to use him in the passing
game more, but 2 catches for 2 yards last week demonstrates that
his floor is pretty low. As for pass catchers, there is no pattern
established as to which might pop up and be semi-productive, so
the advice is just to avoid the entire group altogether.
Tee Higgins missed this past week’s contest due to concussion-like
symptoms and he could end up being held out of this week’s
game as well, but if he’s active for the Bengals then he
needs to be back in fantasy lineups. Higgins doesn’t have
the huge, flashy games that teammate Ja’Marr Chase does,
but he’s been a trustworthy WR2 for most of the season.
He scored a pair of touchdowns against the Bills the last time
we saw him back in Week 14, and while this matchup against the
Dolphins isn’t ideal, he’s a player who managers should
be excited about putting in their lineups as long as he’s
active.
The Bengals don’t have anything to play for at this point
so there were some concerns about whether they’d keep Joe
Burrow active to end the season, but head coach Zac Taylor made
it clear earlier this week that the superstar QB will start the
team’s remaining three games. That might be risky for the
long-term health of the former Heisman Trophy winner, but for
fantasy managers? It’s music to our ears.
Burrow did struggle this past week against the Ravens, but he’s
otherwise looked like his usual self since returning. He should
be in line for a game with plenty of volume this week against
the Dolphins, who are a top-12 matchup for opposing QBs this season.
Mike Gesicki’s Week 15 performance are a great example
of why trusting narrative and a one-week sample size are not enough
information to go off of, especially this deep into the season.
Gesicki was coming off of his biggest game of the season—a
six-catch, 86-yard performance with a touchdown in Week 14—and
Tee Higgins was inactive in Week 15. This led to some trying to
spot-start Gesicki, who had not delivered a single usable fantasy
performance in any other game this season. Of course, Gesicki
saw just two targets against the Ravens and was a complete dud
for fantasy purposes.
Managers are likely not going to trust him this week—as
well they shouldn’t—but if Higgens is unable to play
again then this is just a reminder that Gesicki is not the, “WR2
if Higgins is out.”
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
With Tua Tagovailoa now having been officially benched, the Dolphins
turn to rookie Quinn Ewers to close out what is left of their
disappointing season. While Tua has been far from good, we simply
do not have enough of a sample size from Ewers to feel confident
about starting anyone else in this offense, including Jaylen Waddle.
Waddle isn’t a must-bench as he’s had some decent
fantasy performances even on low volume, but he’s far from
a locked-in fantasy asset right now as his ceiling is probably
hovering around eight targets in an offense that isn’t expected
to score many points.
Tight ends have had some success against the Broncos this season
(12th most FPts/G allowed). That’s largely because opposing quarterbacks
are forced into frequent checkdowns to avoid Denver’s elite pass
rush, but the Broncos have also allowed a healthy 11.4 yards per
reception to the position. Brenton Strange ranks TE16 in FPts/G
over the last five weeks (7.8) and is likely to be leaned on heavily
by Trevor Lawrence as pressure mounts from the Broncos’ front
seven. All of that adds up to Strange being a borderline TE1 this
weekend.
Trevor Lawrence delivered a career performance against the Jets
last week, throwing for a personal-best five touchdowns and 330
yards while adding 51 yards and a score on the ground. It was
the kind of outing many envisioned when he was selected first
overall five years ago.
Lawrence has steadily found his rhythm after a slow start to
the season, particularly over the last four games, where he’s
produced at least 19 FPts in each. That said, his struggles against
elite defenses remain a concern. He averaged just 11.8 FPts across
two starts versus Houston, managed only 17 FPts against the Chargers
in Week 11, and topped out at 19.2 FPts against Seattle back in
Week 6.
The Broncos have made life difficult for opposing quarterbacks
all season, holding Dak Prescott to 10.6 FPts, Patrick Mahomes
to 15.3 FPts, and slowing down a red-hot Jordan Love (17.9 FPts).
This matchup represents a collision between Lawrence’s recent
surge and Denver’s long-standing defensive strength, and the Broncos
have a far longer track record of winning those battles.
If there’s optimism to be found, it’s that Lawrence is now operating
with one of the strongest supporting casts of his career, with
Brian Thomas Jr., Brenton Strange, and Jakobi Meyers all healthy
and involved. Even so, against an elite Broncos pass defense,
Lawrence profiles as more of a high-end QB2 than a locked-in starter.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has quickly established himself as
a reliable option for Lawrence, posting five straight games with
at least four receptions and six targets. He’s averaged
11.1 FPts/G since joining Jacksonville and has rediscovered his
nose for the end zone, scoring three times over the last six weeks.
The problem for Meyers is the matchup. Denver has allowed just
five touchdowns to opposing wide receivers and the 5th fewest
FPts/G at the position. That combination caps his upside, making
Meyers a borderline flex play in Week 16.
Brian Thomas Jr. has looked far more like his 2024 self over
the last two weeks after returning from injury, posting lines
of 3-87-0 and 4-66-1 against the Colts and Jets. Those performances
have pushed him back into the WR2 conversation.
Unfortunately, he draws the same defensive buzzsaw as Meyers,
but in a role that is far more reliant on big plays. The Broncos
are allowing just 11.1 yards per reception and have done an excellent
job limiting explosive passes. Thomas carries significantly more
bust than boom in this matchup.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Bo Nix reached his ceiling again last week, throwing four touchdowns
for the second time this season while topping 300 passing yards
for the second time in three games — and the third time
in 2025. While he’s been far less impactful as a runner
recently (just 10 rushing yards last week), adding to his week-to-week
volatility, his accuracy has taken a noticeable step forward.
Nix has now completed at least 64% of his passes in four straight
games, the longest such streak of his career.
Jacksonville’s defense has been better in real football
than fantasy against quarterbacks, forcing 18 interceptions while
allowing just 6.3 yards per attempt. However, no defense has faced
more pass attempts this season than the Jaguars, largely due to
their vulnerability against the run. That aligns well with Nix,
who ranks 2nd in the league in passing attempts. On volume alone,
opposing quarterbacks sit 10th in FPts/G against Jacksonville.
Nix, currently 9th at the position, profiles as a solid top-10
option this weekend.
Courtland Sutton was a major beneficiary of Nix’s big day,
posting his second 100-yard performance of the season with a 7-113-1
line. Sutton now sits at WR18 in FPts/G and draws a Jaguars secondary
that has been merely average against receivers. With four different
wideouts eclipsing 20 FPts against Jacksonville this year, Sutton
carries legitimate ceiling upside, though he remains best viewed
as a WR2.
RJ Harvey faces a Jaguars defense that has been elite against
the run, allowing the fewest rushing yards to opposing backs in
the league. Through 14 games, they’ve yet to give up a single
100-yard rusher, a feat matched only by New England. They held
Jonathan Taylor to 74 rushing yards earlier this season, and no
other back has fared better. Harvey, who has struggled for efficiency
outside the red zone (3.8 yards per carry on the season, 3.4 last
week), won’t find things any easier against Jacksonville’s front
seven.
The saving grace is that the Jaguars have been far more average
against running backs as receivers, allowing 63 receptions and
three receiving touchdowns. Harvey has caught at least three passes
in eight games this season, including three of his last four,
and has scored four times through the air. If he produces this
weekend, it’s far more likely to come as a receiver than
as a runner, making him a borderline RB2 in a difficult matchup.
Troy Franklin resurfaced last week after a two-game downturn,
posting his most efficient outing of the season with a 6-85-1
line on six targets. Despite a healthy 13.2 aDOT, Franklin has
averaged just 11 yards per reception this year and has often struggled
to maximize his opportunities outside of scoring touchdowns (six
on the season).
His snap share has suffered as a result, with Pat Bryant eating
into his role prior to his injury. Bryant practiced in full this
week and appears on track to return, which could again squeeze
Franklin’s involvement. Franklin played a season-low 26% of snaps
two weeks ago with Bryant active, and if that dynamic returns,
Franklin carries a very low-floor flex profile against the Jaguars.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins has rarely failed to make good use of
his tight ends, which created optimism for Kyle Pitts heading
into 2024. While that pairing never fully clicked, the two are
enjoying a second act late in the 2025 season, and the results
over the last three weeks have been nothing short of spectacular.
Pitts followed up 82- and 90-yard performances with an eruption
against Tampa Bay, hauling in 11 receptions for 166 yards and
three touchdowns — a performance that dealt a major blow to the
Buccaneers’ postseason hopes.
It was the kind of game fantasy managers who invested in Pitts
over the years had long imagined but rarely experienced. Pitts,
still just 25, was already tracking toward his best yardage output
since his rookie season prior to this breakout, though he remained
stuck in TE2 territory. That’s notable, because while Cousins
has played a role in Pitts’ resurgence, the injury to Drake
London has arguably been the bigger catalyst.
London (knee) has a chance to return this week, which could reduce
Pitts’ overall share of the offense. Even so, Pitts looks
like a different player this season. He’s posted a career-low
2% drop rate and is running more underneath routes than ever,
with a 7.5 aDOT. That profile fits perfectly with an immobile
quarterback who relies on quick throws and frequent checkdowns.
The matchup only adds to Pitts’ appeal. Arizona has surrendered
the 6th most FPts/G to tight ends and struggled badly last week,
allowing Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover to combine for 11 catches
on 12 targets for 98 yards and a score. Schultz alone finished
with 17.6 FPts. Even if London is active, Pitts profiles as a
viable TE1 in a highly favorable matchup.
Drake London logged limited practices to open the week and has
a legitimate chance to suit up against Arizona. Even without a
full practice, it would be nearly impossible to leave him on the
bench if he’s active. London’s 16.3 FPts/G production
is simply too valuable with the fantasy season on the line. There
is some risk that he’s used as a decoy, but his ceiling
remains elite and difficult to ignore. His status should be monitored
closely throughout the week.
It’s understandable to be tempted by Kirk Cousins after
he appeared to turn back the clock last week, throwing for 373
yards and three touchdowns. While Cousins may still have productive
moments left in his career, Arizona’s defense has not been
nearly as forgiving to quarterbacks as Tampa Bay’s, allowing
the 14th fewest FPts/G to the position.
Before last week’s eruption, Cousins had been a fantasy
non-factor across a wide range of matchups, including against
the Jets, Seahawks, Saints, and Dolphins. In those four games,
he failed to eclipse 235 passing yards in any contest and threw
just three touchdowns total, while matching that number in interceptions.
His Week 16 output is far more likely to resemble those performances
— something in the range of 175–225 passing yards
with limited touchdown upside — than last week’s ceiling
game. Cousins should be treated as a QB2 against the Cardinals.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
From a fantasy perspective, Jacoby Brissett continues to defy
expectations. Against Houston last week, he threw for three touchdowns
and finished with 22.6 FPts. Much of that production came in garbage
time against one of the league’s elite pass defenses, but
fantasy managers aren’t in the business of style points
— production is production.
Since taking over as Arizona’s starter, Brissett has been
nothing short of remarkably consistent. In nine starts, he’s
topped 20 FPts in all but one, with his “floor” still
landing at 18.7 FPts. No quarterback has been more reliably productive
over the last two-plus months.
The Falcons defense has allowed at least 19 FPts to opposing
quarterbacks in seven of their last eight games, essentially mirroring
Brissett’s recent fantasy profile. With a December matchup
indoors and little resistance expected, Brissett once again belongs
firmly in the QB1 conversation.
Michael Wilson continued his steady production last week against
Houston. It wasn’t especially efficient — five catches
on 11 targets for 57 yards — but he also found the end zone,
and few receivers do much more against the Texans. The most important
takeaway was the volume, as those 11 targets marked a significant
statement about his role.
Wilson could face increased competition if Marvin Harrison Jr.
returns, but it’s worth noting that Wilson still saw seven targets
in each of the last two games Harrison played. He’s also had time
to establish himself as Brissett’s primary wide receiver. With
74 targets over the last six games and a favorable matchup against
a beatable Falcons secondary, Wilson is a must-start option. He
profiles as a WR1 if Harrison sits and remains a WR2 even if Harrison
is active.
Marvin Harrison Jr. returned to practice in a limited capacity
and early reports suggest he’s moving well, creating optimism
that he could return this weekend. If he does, two key questions
remain: can he stay healthy after recent issues, and has Michael
Wilson’s emergence permanently altered the target hierarchy?
Given that Harrison’s recent health concerns appear largely
unrelated to football, his ability to remain active may be less
of a concern once he’s cleared. The bigger risk is Wilson’s
growing role. Harrison already plays second fiddle to target magnet
Trey McBride, and if he slips to third in the pecking order, he
becomes little more than a volatile flex option — even against
a Falcons defense that has allowed 17 receiving touchdowns this
season. Harrison is best viewed as a boom/bust play in Week 16.
With Bam Knight joining James Conner and Trey Benson on season-ending
injured reserve, Michael Carter may be in line for another opportunity
as Arizona’s lead back. He’ll share the backfield with Emari Demercado,
and the Cardinals’ usage patterns have been difficult to predict,
but Carter out-touched Demercado 18–3 last week after Knight exited.
Carter has also played over 50% of snaps in four straight games,
highlighting the coaching staff’s trust in him — particularly
in pass protection. That trust could translate into flex-worthy
usage against a Falcons defense that’s been mediocre against
running backs and vulnerable to them as receivers, allowing 61
receptions and four receiving touchdowns. Carter’s limited
rushing efficiency (3.3 yards per carry) caps his ceiling, but
his receiving profile keeps him firmly in the flex discussion.
As noted above, Emari Demercado took a clear backseat to Michael
Carter last week and has functioned primarily as a change-of-pace
option since Conner and Benson went down. There’s little
reason to expect that role to change in Week 16, making Demercado
a true Hail Mary option at best.
I am not leaving Raiders offensive players outside of both the
“favorite” and “on the fence” categories
for no reason. I am trying to make a definitive statement: Outside
of Brock Bowers, do not start any Raider players against a Texans
defense that is going to chew them up and spit them out. If you
drafted Ashton Jeanty in the first round this season and are still
alive in your fantasy playoffs, you’ll be inclined to start
him here, but since Week 5, Jeanty has averaged less than 3.2
yards rushing per attempt in every single game. Unless he gets
30 touches, I just don’t see how he’s going to be
a difference maker with such an established pattern of futility.
Tucker’s reason for inclusion as a fade is easy to understand.
This is the league’s worst offense against its best defense.
Tucker is the WR50 in fantasy points per game (half-PPR).
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Marks is a near ideal start in this game given the likely game
script, but as of this writing, he has yet to practice this week
due in injury, so that bears watching heading into the weekend.
Whoever draws the start at RB in Houston, however, should benefit
from the flow of this game. With Nick Chubb (ribs) not a lock
to play either, Jawhar Jordan may be a very good plug and play
after rushing for 100+ yards last week. Also, Dalton Schultz is
coming off his best game of the season last week (8-76-1) and
was targeted more than 2x any other Texan player in the passing
game.
If fantasy stats acquired in the first half of games were all
that we considered for value, C.J. Stroud would make the favorites
list for sure. Last week, he completed over 70% of his throws
and threw for 3 scores against another bad defense (Arizona).
But, getting back to predicted game script, the Texans may shut
it down in the second half if they’re up by 20+ points which
looks possible, if not probable. That limits Stroud’s upside
even if his floor looks to be as high as it’s been at any
point to date this season.
Higgins has shown flashes in his rookie season, but with average
targets dipping to below 4 the past three weeks, I don’t
see him as a safe option for this week given the damage the Texans
will do on the ground. He’s not a non-option per se; I just
think he’s low on my list of players to possibly take a
chance on with playoff stakes on the line.
To this point, it’s been Warren as the no-brainer with Gainwell’s
week-to-week value being based on matchups. It feels like that
has changed. Over the last five games, Gainwell has averaged 88
yards with three total TDs. During that same time period, Warren
has put up 57.8 yards per game while matching the three combined
scores. While the tandem continues to share touches, Gainwell
has flourished as a checkdown target for Aaron Rodgers, which
has pushed his value up. Warren still deserves a spot in most
lineups, even in a slightly negative matchup with Detroit, as
Pittsburgh’s path to victory likely involves limiting the Lions’
possessions. Consider him as a solid flex.
In two games since his disastrous effort against the Bills, Rodgers
has combined for 508 yards and four total touchdowns in back-to-back
wins. Things get tougher this Sunday, when the Steelers travel
to Motown. Rodgers has a long history with the Lions from his
many seasons in Green Bay, and he may need a throwback performance
to spring an upset. In terms of the matchup, it looks good on
paper. Detroit’s secondary has been thinned by injury, and
only Cincinnati and Dallas have allowed more TD passes (28). There
haven’t been many QB1 efforts from Rodgers this season,
so you’d be going against the grain, but it’s at least
a possibility here.
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Detroit’s playoff hopes took another blow last Sunday in
Los Angeles. It was no fault of Goff’s, however, as he put
up 338 yards and three TDs against his former club. The veteran
has quietly put together another strong season with Week 15 being
his fourth 300-yard effort and ninth outing with multiple touchdown
passes. Pittsburgh ranks 27th in pass defense (242.2 yards per
game), and they could be without T.J. Watt (lung) for a second
straight week after he suffered a collapsed lung. There’s
significant potential for Goff to perform as a midrange QB1 this
week.
Over his first nine games, Montgomery posted double-digit carries
seven times. Over his last five, he hasn’t registered more
than eight. To his credit, Montgomery has managed to maintain
a decent fantasy profile courtesy of scoring a touchdown in three
straight games. When you’re only getting a handful of opportunities
each week, though, it’s hard to be a reliable option. Such
is the case once again this Sunday with Montgomery being playable
as a risk/reward flex.
Given the lack of depth at the tight end position right now,
Henry ranks as a borderline no-brainer, even after managing just
one catch for 18 yards in New England’s Week 15 loss to
Buffalo. It was, in fact, Henry’s fourth one-reception outing
this season. The good news for fantasy owners: he followed up
those first three instances with lines of 8-90-2, 4-51-0, and
4-45-0, respectively. It’s as if Maye looks at the box score
and decides he needs to get his tight end more involved. Facing
a middling Ravens pass defense is beneficial as well, despite
them locking down Mike Gesicki (1-11-0) last week. Between the
matchup and season-to-date production, Henry can be used as a
low-end TE1.
On a day when the Patriots ran for 246 yards and four touchdowns,
Stevenson managed a disappointing 50 yards without a score. He
added another 27 yards as a receiver, giving him 77 combined,
which is very respectable RB3/flex production. The concern comes
from the usage. He had nine total touches. He had seven in Week
12, and then 15 the following week, though that came in a one-sided
win over the Giants. So, where does he really stand in relation
to Henderson? The rookie is far more explosive, and in the two
close games New England has played since Stevenson returned from
injury, it’s been Henderson seeing the bulk of the work.
That makes the veteran a somewhat risky option as your flex.
The Patriots ostensibly signed Diggs to give Maye a No. 1 receiver,
and though he has performed like one on occasion, the second-year
quarterback has displayed excellent field vision, allowing him
to spread the ball around. That’s great for New England’s
offense, less so for fantasy owners. Over his last seven games,
Diggs has topped 50 yards just once, and the last three weeks
he’s finished under 30 yards. Unless you want to bank on
Diggs having one of his increasingly rare impact performances,
you should strongly think about using a more reliable (or higher
upside) alternative in Week 16.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Last Sunday was an odd one for the Ravens. They won by 24 points
while running just 40 plays and completing eight passes. As a
result, only Henry (100 yards rushing), and Flowers (3-68-1) posted
even decent numbers. Andrews logged two grabs for 18 yards. Isaiah
Likely was never even targeted. Look, we’ve done this dance
before. Andrews continues to underwhelm, entering Week 16 needing
186 yards over the final three games to avoid setting a new career
low in receiving yards, established in a season where he appeared
in just 10 games. You have to follow the matchups, though, and
the Patriots allowed Buffalo’s tight ends to post seven
catches, 80 yards, and 2 TDs last Sunday. There’s TE1 potential
for Andrews, attached to substantial downside.
Although it still feels wrong to see Jackson’s name anywhere
other than the no-brainer section, the numbers dictate that to
be the case. As noted above, Jackson completed just eight passes
in Week 15, totaling 150 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. He’d add
26 yards on a pair of rushes. You can point out that Baltimore
still won comfortably, but there’s no way the Ravens wanted
their defense on the field for nearly 40 minutes. The ugly truth
is this: Jackson couldn’t move the ball consistently against
perhaps the worst defense in the NFL. Maybe he flips the switch
versus a much tougher Pats D this Sunday night. Maybe it’s
another flop. We all know what Jackson is capable of, meaning
there’s always justification for using him as your QB1.
Just understand how high the risk has become.
Is Brock Purdy finally fully healthy? He certainly looked the
part last weekend with nearly 300 yards and 3 touchdown passes
with no interceptions. The opponent was the Titans, which diminishes
the accomplishments a bit, but Purdy is no longer struggling to
push/force the ball downfield. With Kyle Shanahan calling the
shots offensively, good health almost always equate to good production
in a superior offensive system.
Ricky Pearsall is questionable to play this week, so Jauan Jennings
is de facto co-favorite to receive the most targets alongside
George Kittle. You’ll be happy with starting Purdy, Jennings,
or both this week if you have them stacked.
Robinson has proven to be useful back since coming over from
Washington, with over 4 yards per carry this year as a line item
in his resume. But, since he’s nearly completely absent
in the passing game (less than 1 target per game), most of his
production is limited to “garbage time” late in decisive
outcomes. With the Colts fighting for their playoff lives and
holding Seattle to no touchdowns last week, this game should stay
within reach, meaning Robinson is likely to have a minor role
at best.
Pearsall is bothered by knee and ankle ailments and makes for
a very risky start even if he plays.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
With Philip Rivers now at quarterback, Jonathan Taylor touched
the ball 28 times last weekend. Expect more of the same this Monday
night meaning that all Colt pass catchers have limited upside.
Pittman, Downs, and Warren run shorter routes which is about all
Rivers is good for given his limitations. Don’t expect any
of the three to put up huge yardage totals, but in a PPR league,
all three could produce at least 4-5 receptions, making them something
between start-able and bench worthy.
I think we saw Rivers’ ceiling and floor all rolled into
one last week vs. Seattle. In the real world of the NFL, his performance
was admirable. But, for fantasy purposes, it wasn’t useful.
With very limited arm strength and no ability to score points
running the ball, Rivers is the ultimate fantasy fade and should
be benched in all formats. Pierce, likewise, has minimal value
given that he’s the Colts’ deep threat on a team that
can’t throw the ball downfield.
