With Prescott back in top form after a brief lull, the Dallas
offense might have the least variance of any in the NFL with a
quartet of no-brainers and basically no one else you’d even consider.
You could certainly designate Ferguson as one as well, but his
numbers have trailed off after a hot start, totaling 19 catches
for 162 yards and a touchdown over the last five games combined.
That’s not really TE1 stuff, but the Wisconsin product has seven
touchdowns on the season and he’s a consistent presence in the
offense, being targeted 24 times in four November games. Given
what’s happening at the position -- injuries to Tucker Kraft,
Sam LaPorta, and Dalton Kincaid, and disappearing acts from David
Njoku, T.J. Hockenson, and others -- it’s an easy call to slide
Ferguson into your lineup given the potency of Dallas’ passing
attack and his involvement in it.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
It was another fairly quiet outing from Montgomery on Thanksgiving,
at least in terms of usage, as he tallied 10 touches for 48 yards
and a touchdown. It was the continuation of a recent trend where
Knuckles gets limited opportunities. Don’t be surprised
if that changes this Thursday night. Only five teams have allowed
more yards per carry than the Cowboys (4.7), and with St. Brown
likely out, the Lions might try to impose their will using the
tandem of Gibbs and Montgomery. It’s also simply a matter
of moving up the food chain as Montgomery suddenly becomes the
third option instead of the fifth, which is what he is when St.
Brown and LaPorta are available. Add to that the allure of protecting
a defense that played a lot of snaps versus the Giants and Packers,
and Montgomery becomes an RB3/flex with considerable upside.
Just two teams have ceded more passing yards than the Cowboys
(251.5 per game) and no one has surrendered more TD strikes (28).
Even in their Thanksgiving Day win over the Chiefs, Dallas watched
as Patrick Mahomes threw for four scores. Based purely on matchups,
Goff is a very enticing play. The reason he’s here instead,
however, is largely laid out above. He’ll be without LaPorta
and probably St. Brown, and Dallas is also susceptible to the
run. With the Cowboys offense clicking, it makes sense to play
physically and keep Prescott and company watching from the sidelines.
Of course, if Dallas gets up, all that goes out the window, and
in that scenario, we could see big things from Goff, and perhaps
TeSlaa as well. The rookie had two receptions, 35 yards, and a
touchdown in relief of St. Brown last Thursday, and he has flashed
great hands in limited opportunities. Goff is a viable midrange
QB1 while TeSlaa would be a lottery ticket type play from your
flex slot.
It took a while, but Metcalf has finally played himself off the
no-brainer list. The only true difference maker at receiver for
the Steelers, the former Seahawk opened the season with 461 yards
and 5 TDs in his first seven games. In five games since, he’s
managed just 18 receptions for 144 yards without a score. After
watching the offense sputter to an insane degree against the Bills,
look for the team (and Aaron Rodgers) to find more ways to get
the ball in Metcalf’s hands. The Ravens rank 26th in pass defense,
allowing 232.1 yards per game, but they were dead last for a good
chunk of the season before facing a cavalcade of uninspiring quarterbacks.
There’s room to make plays versus that secondary, and Metcalf
is worth using as a WR3 with upside.
Outside of Warren and Metcalf, Gainwell has been Pittsburgh’s
best offensive weapon. It took the team too long to warm to that
fact, but over the last three games he’s averaged 91 combined
yards and scored twice. The Bengals found a way to get both of
their backs involved on Thanksgiving night with Chris Brown racking
up 113 yards on 22 touches and Samaje Perine posting 54 yards
on 16. As noted above, the struggles with the Bills should underscore
the need to get the ball in the hands of what playmakers the Steelers
have available to them, and Gainwell is that. He’s a decent RB3/flex.
While conceding that Rodgers (wrist) was a) dealing with an injury,
and b) got almost no help from his supporting cast, it’s
still hard not to look at last week’s loss to Buffalo and
see a player at the end of the road. The now 42-year-old turned
back the clock a couple of times early on, even throwing for multiple
TDs in five of his first seven outings. As the hits have added
up, however, production has waned. In his last four games, Rodgers
is averaging 119 yards with 3 TDs and 2 INTs. The signing of Adam
Theilen could help, but Rodgers has been so far from playable
value he can’t be used right now.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
A week ago, I made the case that despite middling production,
Flowers did enough each week to remain a no-brainer as a WR3.
He responded to my endorsement by posting a 2-6-0 line and losing
a fumble. While that was enough to bump him from must-start status
for the moment, there’s a lot to like about a possible rebound
in Week 14. Let’s start with history: last season, Flowers
scored in the first meeting with Pittsburgh and had 100 yards
in the rematch. This is also a positive matchup. The Steelers
rank 28th in pass defense, allowing 247.4 yards per game even
after Buffalo leaned on their running attack last weekend. It’s
reasonable then to expect Pittsburgh to focus on stopping Derrick
Henry here, which should open things up for Flowers as a WR3 with
upside.
November may well go down as the worst month of Jackson’s
career. While dealing with several lower-body injuries, the former
MVP averaged 192 yards passing and 21 yards rushing while accounting
for just one touchdown combined -- that was on a pass in Week
10, meaning he’s gone three straight games without a scoring
play. With a few extra days to get healthy and regroup, Jackson
has a chance to get his season back on track against the Jekyll-and-Hyde
Steelers defense, which struggled mightily in their loss to Buffalo.
Given what we’ve seen from Jackson of late, however, there’s
no guarantee he'll produce, which is why he carries this “on
the fence” designation for the first time in living memory.
Still, unless you have a good secondary option, Jackson boasts
enough upside to warrant the risk.
The frustration around Kenneth Walker continues. Despite some
encouraging usage early in the game last week, he still came up
short in a prime matchup against the Vikings, handling just 16
touches for 74 yards. Charbonnet handled 14 touches of his own
and continues to be used around the endzone, scoring his 8th TD
on the season. Even with the timeshare in Walker’s favor he’s
failed to take advantage more times than not and has posted double-digit
fantasy points (half-ppr) in just two out of his last eight games.
The Falcons gave up 244 yards rushing to Jonathan Taylor which
has skewed their stats. Otherwise, McCaffrey is the only other
RB to top 100 yards against them. Walker checks in as mid-range
RB2 this week.
Darnold has failed to throw a TD pass in three games this season,
including last week against the Vikings when he finished as the
QB30. Granted, they didn’t need to do much on offense against
Max Brosmer, but he completed just 53.8% of his passes for 128
yards. Darnold’s best fantasy games this season have come against
Tampa Bay and Washington; two teams that are positive matchups
for QBs. We should get a bounce back game here for Darnold in
a neutral matchup against the Falcons but anything more than a
mid-range QB2 performance would be a bonus.
Fade: N/A
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
The Falcons have very little depth at the wide receiver position.
They’re playing David Sills and Dylan Drummond in three-wide receiver
sets, along with Darnell Mooney who’s done a disappearing action
most of the season. That leaves Pitts, who’s been a favorite target
of Kirk Cousins the last two weeks with target share of 25.8%
and 25.0%. If London (knee) misses again, we should expect at
least a 20% target share for Pitts. The matchup looks good and
despite him being a frustrating fantasy asset, volume alone should
easily put him in the low-end TE1 conversation this week.
Mooney’s high-water mark came in Week 12 when he finished
as the WR13 with a 3-74-1 line. Otherwise, he’s been a disaster
registering 4 or fewer catches in every game he’s played
this season. He played 95.7% of the snaps last week and turned
5 targets into 2 catches and 25 yards. Even if London sits, I’d
be looking to keep Mooney on my fantasy bench this week.
Before I even get started, let me summarize this matchup in one
word: woof. The Titans are a botched Cardinals interception return
from being winless, and Cleveland (3-9) is on its third starting
quarterback of the year, each of which have won one game. Still,
it’s NFL football, and come June we’d all probably kill for a
Titans-Browns game, so let’s make the best of it. With Calvin
Ridley (leg) done for the year, Pollard is the closest thing to
a reliable fantasy option as the Titans currently employ, though
even that might be a bit generous. After starting the season with
five respectable performances, the veteran has averaged 51 total
yards per game over his last seven without a touchdown, and you
never know when Tajae Spears will vulture some key snaps. Still,
Pollard has tallied double-digit touches every game this season,
giving him flex value.
When the season began, the Titans had Ridley and Tyler Lockett.
Now, they’re trotting out names like Van Jefferson and Elic Ayomanor
alongside Dike. While early on it looked like Ayomanor would be
the team’s top rookie wideout, fellow fourth-round pick Dike has
been better recently. Over the last six weeks, he’s scored twice,
and has single-game yardage totals of 70 and 93 yards, respectively.
While it’s dangerous to put your faith in any Titans pass catcher
right now, Dike has the most potential to deliver.
Drafted first overall back in April, Ward has endured a brutal
rookie year. He leads the NFL in sacks, and is tied for 31st in
TD passes -- incredibly, among quarterbacks to have played in
12 or more games, he has less than half as many as the second-lowest
QB, Geno Smith (15). Ward doesn’t run, either, which leaves him
a peg below other struggling signal callers like J.J. McCarthy.
Odds are nobody was considering Ward for their lineup to begin
with, but this is just a friendly reminder that going with a rookie
that takes a ton of sacks against a defense led by Myles Garrett
would be unwise.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Fannin’s ascent continued last Sunday, leading the team in targets
(5), receptions (3), and yards (43) while scoring the lone touchdown.
A blown fourth-down sneak goes on the negative side of the ledger,
but at the same time it emphasizes the faith that the coaching
staff has in the rookie. Even on a bad offense, he’s become a
fairly reliable source of value, topping 40 yards in four of his
last five games. Fannin owns low-end TE1 appeal against Tennessee’s
middling pass defense, which allowed Brenton Strange to reach
the end zone last Sunday.
Ever since offering a glimmer of hope against the Jets with a
6-78-1 line, Jeudy has returned to his disappointing numbers,
recording 21, 39, and 26 yards, respectively, over his last three
games. He and Sanders also got into it on the sidelines during
last week’s loss to San Francisco. The Titans had their issues
with another veteran wideout last weekend when Jakobi Meyers hit
them for 90 yards and a score on six grabs. You’d be heading into
desperation territory to roll the dice on Jeudy at this stage
of the season, but if your need is dire, he can be used as a flex.
Njoku (knee) entered the season as a legitimate TE1 for fantasy
owners. He then got off to a slowish start, averaging 32 yards
per game in four September games. Looking back, those might have
been his glory days of 2025. In November, Njoku had 32 yards total,
and he didn’t reach double-digits in any of his last three games.
Now working through a bad knee and operating in the shadow of
Fannin, Njoku has lost all fantasy appeal.
A pathetic cold patch from his quarterback has led to some underwhelming
fantasy performances for Jaylen Waddle in each of his past two
games, as the receiver has caught just six passes for 92 yards
and no touchdowns over that stretch. Prior to that, though, Waddle
had been on a hot streak of five double-digit PPR games over a
six-game stretch, so we’ve seen that he is capable of delivering
solid WR2/3 numbers here in 2026.
Waddle now faces a Jets defense that is a shell of what it was
earlier this season when they held him to three catches for 48
yards back in Week 4. We should expect him to see somewhere between
six to nine targets as he has throughout most of the season, with
a relatively high per-catch average, so Waddle is capable of producing
usable numbers again this week—it really just comes down to your
confidence in Tua Tagovailoa being able to deliver him the ball.
Most fantasy managers are not seriously considering Tua this
week, but for those who might be eying him based on bye week situations,
heed this warning—don’t do it. Tagovailoa has now
been held to fewer than 200 passing yards in three straight contests.
He’s also thrown just two touchdown passes since Week 8.
Most importantly, he’s not even being given the opportunity
to do more than that, as he’s thrown the ball fewer than
30 times in five of his past six games. The overall offensive
efficiency isn’t there, the volume is missing, and Tua is
just not passing the “eye test.” Pass.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
While we have no interest in the quarterback on the other side
of the field, Tyrod Taylor might actually be a somewhat interesting
bye week fill-in for fantasy managers who are in need this week.
Taylor is coming off of his most productive game of the season
where he threw for 172 yards and a touchdown, but more importantly
got things done with his legs by rushing for 44 yards and an additional
score.
Taylor’s mobility might not be what Justin Fields’ was, but he’s
still reasonably athletic and capable of rushing for not only
yards, but also touchdowns. That alone would make him an interesting
option, but his matchup against the Dolphins makes things even
better. Miami ranks in the top-10 in most fantasy points per game
given up to opposing QBs so far this season and they’ve conceded
the third-most rushing yards to the position on the season, behind
only the Cowboys and Giants (who’ve played an extra game).
With Garrett Wilson still out for the foreseeable future, the
Jets continue to search for productivity at wide receiver and
they seem to be finding at least some spark in the duo of John
Metchie and Adonai Mitchell.
While neither player is a locked-in starter for fantasy managers,
both have seen significant volume in recent weeks. Metchie has
now seen 18 passes come his way over the past three weeks and
he’s scored two touchdowns over that span, while Mitchell
is coming off of a huge game this past week where he caught eight
of the 12 passes that came his way for 102 yards and a touchdown.
Mitchell has now been targeted 25 times over the past three weeks,
making him a player who fantasy managers could actually consider—even
in a bad offense—simply given the unexpectedly high volume
we’ve seen come his way.
The Saints have few fantasy options we can feel comfortable starting
each week but Olave is at least in the conversation. Among wide
receivers, he’s second in targets (115) behind only Ja’Marr Chase
(131) and is the WR13 in fantasy points per game (half ppr). QB
Tyler Shough is staring to find his footing and has thrown for
at least 239 yards in his last three games. The way to attack
the Bucs defense is through the air and with Tampa favored by
8.5 we can safely assume a negative game scripts for the Saints.
That should mean plenty of dropbacks for Shough, and plenty of
targets for Olave.
With Alvin Kamara on the shelf due to a knee injury, Devin Neal
got his first crack as the lead back for the Saints last week
against the Dolphins and posted a 14-47-0, 3-22-0 line for a RB39
finish. The overall offensive environment for the Saints isn’t
great (3rd fewest pts scored in the league) which keeps his projection
in check, but Neal is an above average pass catcher which should
help in this matchup as the Bucs have allowed the most receiving
yards (681) to running backs this season. This makes Neal a better
option in PPP leagues where’s he’s a viable Flex.
The sad state of affairs at the tight end position has Juwan
Johnson (54-576-3) on the TE1/TE2 borderline for the season. He
ranks 6th in targets and 7th in receptions at the position as
the Saints typically find themselves playing from behind. That
should be the case again this week with New Orleans more than
a touchdown underdog against the Tampa Bay. As with most tight
ends, you’re looking for a TD to be fantasy relevant but
averaging a TD every four games isn’t something we can feel
confident about. JJ posted a 5-53-0 line on 8 targets when these
teams met back in Week 8 and that should be the expectation here.
The Saints used a tight three-wide receiver rotation last week
against the Dolphins with Olave, Vele and Tipton all playing at
least 85% of the snaps. Vele caught all 8 of his targets, posted
an 8-93-1 line and finished as the WR8. Who saw that coming? While
the snap percentage is encouraging, it feels like chasing points
to ask a wide receiver on a below-average offense to repeat his
likely outlier performance from a week ago.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Bucky saw his first game action since Week 4 and he delivered
a solid 17-61-1, 2-20-0 line for a RB14 finish. We weren’t confident
in how the running back rotation would work, but ultimately it
was Sean Tucker (9 snaps) who was left with the short end of the
stick. Assuming he’s fine physically, I’d expect Tampa to lean
on Bucky even more this week as the Bucs are heavy home favorites.
The Saints represent a neutral matchup against running backs this
season in large part due to the low number of receiving yards
(276) given up to the position. However, they have allowed the
2nd most rushing attempts (312) and 5th most rushing yards (1329)
which should make us feel comfortable with Bucky as a low-end
RB1 in Week 14.
After a 41-TD effort last season, things haven’t been the same
for Baker in 2025. He’s on pace for 817 fewer passing yards and
14 fewer passing TDs. Not having Evans and Godwin for most of
the season hasn’t helped and the Bucs have been without their
best rushing threat (Bucky Irving) for seven games which has stalled
the offense. The skies are getting clearer however as Bucky and
Godwin have returned and Evans and Jalen McMillan have returned
to practice. While we’ll likely have to wait a week for their
return to game action, Baker will have plenty of weapons to churn
another QB2 performance even if the Bucs rely on the running game.
Egbuka has seen at least 8 targets in six straight games yet
he’s struggled to connect with Baker resulting in disappointing
box scores. He has just one top-12 fantasy finish during that
span and hasn’t topped 40 receiving yards in his last three games.
When these two teams met back in Week 8, Egbuka posted a 3-35-0
line on 8 targets. With Chris Godwin back on the field and the
prospects of Tampa Bay leaning on the run in this game, it’s getting
difficult to trust Egbuka as anything more than a low-end WR2
with upside.
After playing 85.7% of the snaps in Week 12, Tez saw his snap
share fall to 57.4% as the playing time of Chris Godwin is on
the rise. Tez had just two targets last week and his outlook isn’t
getting better with the Bucs receiver room on the mend. If you
need the room on your bench, you can likely cut Tez for better
options.
Warren has been a high-end tight end option this season but has
yet to have a truly monster game. He’s topped out as the
TE3 on two occasions (Wk4, Wk6). His touchdown games (four) have
all come with under 70 yards receiving but this week we could
see the combination and an overall TE1 finish as Jacksonville
has given up the 2nd most fantasy points (14.0 – half ppr)
and receptions (84) to the position. Warren was a bit under the
weather last week, but he should be feeling good at the end of
Week 14.
Jones has cooled off in his last three games averaging 212 passing
yards and 1.7 TDs per contest. He also picked up a leg injury
that has dampened his rushing ability. Facing the Texans-D and
the Chiefs on the road are difficult spots so his dip in production
is understandable. This week, the Jags represent a positive matchup
against quarterbacks as they’ve allowed the 8th-most TD
passes (22) and five QBs have gone for more than 290 passing yards
against them. Jones is probably more of a high-end QB2 play but
he has low-end QB1 potential if this game tops the current total
of 47.5.
Pittman has seen 2, 8, and 4 targets in his last three games
and hasn’t topped 30 yards in any of them. His 7 TDs have
really been the force behind his fantasy totals this season as
he’s topped 100-yards just once (@ PIT). Pierce has been
living off the deep ball, leading all wide receivers in yards
per catch (20.9) and is averaging 6 targets per game. One of Pittman
or Pierce is likely to have a decent game here to go along with
Warren. My lean would be towards Pittman, who should do well underneath
the safeties against the Jaguars base defense that attempts to
eliminate the damage of downfield throws.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Strange played 84.1% of the snaps last week, good for top 12
at the tight end position. He’s been light on the target
front this season, topping out at 7 (twice) but has been the TE5
and TE6 in half-ppr leagues the last two weeks since returning
from injury. The matchup here against the Colts is positive. Indianapolis
has given up the 2nd most receiving yards and the 4th most fantasy
to the position, making Strange a good bet for a top 10 finish
in Week 14.
Lawrence has posted two top-12 fantasy finishes the last two
weeks (QB3, QB11) against the Cardinals and Titans bolstered by
5 passing TDs. He’s also rushed for at least 24 yards in four
out of his last five games, elevating his floor. The return of
Strange and BTJ does help his weaponry but there are some health
concerns surrounding Parker Washington who left last week’s game
with a hip issue. The Colts have been solid against the position
allowing just two out-sized performances (Stafford, Herbert) but
I’d be inclined to roll out Lawrence above other mid-range QBs
like Caleb or Darnold.
After four-straight solid outings, Etienne hit the skids in Week
13, turning 13 touches into 41 total yards on zero TDs. A bad
look as the Jagas were a sizeable favorite against the Titans
and controlled the game throughout. Bhayshul Tuten is also a thorn
in Etienne’s side, especially around the goaline, but when these
touches come for the rookie are difficult to predict. The Colts
have allowed just one 100-yard rusher this season (Hunt) and given
the shaky touch volume, it’s hard to see a ceiling game for Etienne.
He’s a mid-range RB2 in Week 14.
BTJ (ankle) returned to the lineup last week and was largely
a full-time player, in on 74.6% of the snaps. However, he saw
just 3 targets for a 2-28-0 line which doesn’t inspire much confidence
heading into Week 14. The team signaled a move to feature rookie
Travis Hunter prior to his season-ending knee injury and brought
in Meyers who is quickly becoming the preferred option in the
WR room -- not a good look for Thomas. If Parker Washington sits
with his hip injury, you can feel more comfortable rolling the
dice with Thomas but I’d be looking for other options.
Since the dawn of time, few arrangements have been as reviled
as the running back by committee. Unfortunately, that’s exactly
what we have in DC. Over the last two games, Rodriguez has 26
carries, Jacory Croskey-Merritt has 13, and Jeremy McNichols has
10. While it’s far from ideal, at least Rodriguez looks to have
established himself as the head of the committee after usage bounced
all over the place after Austin Ekeler (Achilles’) was lost for
the season early on. Rodriguez should have a major role in Week
14. For as much as Minnesota has struggled this season, their
pass defense remains solid, sitting fifth in the NFL. Part of
that, though, is weakness against the run. Just in the past two
weeks, we’ve seen the Packers and Seahawks complete a combined
28 passes while Green Bay ran the ball 42 times and Seattle ran
it 32. A safe flex play, Rodriguez has a chance to push toward
RB2 levels.
It would be surprising if Washington didn’t follow the Green
Bay/Seattle blueprint, focusing on the run while sprinkling in
the pass. To that end, it’s debatable how many fantasy pass catchers
an approach like that can support. With McLaurin back, he slides
into the No. 1 role, and Ertz is the steady checkdown option.
That leaves Samuel in limbo. He finished with a respectable 5-64-0
line against Denver, but bear in mind he caught a 38-yard pass
in OT, meaning he ended regulation with 26 yards on four receptions.
There’s a fair amount of risk here with a modest ceiling.
As of this writing, Jayden Daniels’ (elbow) status remains unclear,
so we’re assuming that Mariota will remain in the starting lineup.
The veteran is coming off his best game of the year, totaling
294 yards and 2 TDs passing while adding 55 yards as a runner.
It’s hard to imagine he can duplicate that in Week 14, though
he does have a shot at using his legs to generate some value.
Still, this feels like a week where Washington buttons things
up to limit mistakes, making Mariota a dicey option.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Go ahead and throw Jones’ numbers for Week 13 in the trash.
With Max Brosmer under center, the Seahawks weren’t going
to let Minnesota run the football. What is worth paying attention
to is the veteran’s status for this Sunday. Jones suffered
a shoulder injury during the loss in Seattle and did not return.
The team indicated it wasn’t serious, but he’s been
limited in practice to this point. Assuming he’s good to
go on Sunday, fantasy owners should get him right back in their
lineups. The return of J.J. McCarthy (concussion) at least introduces
the threat of the forward pass, and Washington is a bottom-six
run defense both in both yards per game (133.3) and per carry
(4.7). Jones as a flex could pay off handsomely.
If Jones is out this Sunday, Mason steps in and stands to benefit
for all the reasons listed above. Even if Jones is back, however,
there’s still upside to be found as the team could decide
that the veteran isn’t ready for a full-time workload. Alternatively,
it might simply be a case where their best path to victory is
to try and lean on their two backs against a shaky Commanders
run defense to protect a struggling McCarthy. Mason has quietly
been very effective in limited opportunities recently, averaging
6.6 yards per carry during the team’s current four-game
losing streak. He’s a higher variance option than Jones,
but he can still be used as a flex.
There was actually one Vikings player that seemed to benefit
from Brosmer, and that was Hockenson, who had a season-high 59
yards on six receptions in Seattle. Consider this a PSA that,
in his previous four games with McCarthy under center, Hockenson
averaged 19 yards per game. Even in a solid matchup -- Washington
is 31st in the NFL in pass defense and just allowed a 6-79-0 line
to Evan Engram, who’d struggled for most of the season as well
-- Hockenson is no more than a high-risk flier.
Although Joe Burrow’s return and reasonably productive game in
Week 13 will mean that he’s in almost all lineups here in Week
14, it’s worth considering that this is a particularly difficult
spot on the road against a Buffalo defense that has conceded the
second-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks so far
this season. The Bills have allowed just 12 touchdowns through
12 games played, they’ve allowed just three quarterbacks to throw
for multiple touchdown passes against them, and they haven’t allowed
a QB to pass for even 200 yards against them since Week 9 when
Patrick Mahomes did it.
This isn’t necessarily a must-sit spot, but there may be
quarterbacks who present a higher floor than Burrow does this
week and that could be appealing depending on your situation.
The return of Burrow has sparked the entire Bengals offense and
the concussion suffered by Tee Higgins led to opportunity over
the past two weeks for Andre Iosivas, but that is expected to
come to a screeching halt this week as Higgins should be making
his return to the field. Iosivas caught four passes for 61 yards
in Week 12 and then scored a touchdown in Week 13, so some fantasy
managers could be tempted to roll with him again here in Week
14. Don’t be one of those managers.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Fantasy managers are dealing with a tough week of byes, which
could allow players like Khalil Shakir to play a valuable role
in fantasy lineups. Shakir has been a low-ceiling receiver who’s
had a solid floor throughout most of the season, but he has struggled
in recent weeks, having caught just one pass in two of his past
three games. Interestingly, Shakir’s highest-volume game
of the season was sandwiched between those poor performances,
so managers should feel a bit better about plugging him in if
they need him against a horrible Cincinnati defense. Unfortunately,
while the Bengals have played poorly throughout most of the season,
they’ve actually stepped up specifically when defending
opposing wide receivers over the past three weeks. In fact, no
opposing WR has scored even 10 fantasy points against them since
Week 9.
This is truly a toss-up decision for fantasy managers and it’ll
really depend on your individual situation, but Shakir is likely
a low-ceiling, relatively high-floor WR3-type option.
Courtland Sutton enters Week 14 as the WR27 (10.5 FPts/G), a
fair representation of what has been a streaky but still usable
season. His target share dropped from 7.9/game in 2024 to 6.7/game
this year, which has created more volatility — exemplified
in his last four outings. After posting just 4 receptions for
54 yards combined in Weeks 9–10 (with a touchdown salvaging
the stretch), Sutton rebounded for 9-121-1 over the last two games.
He was quiet in the first Broncos–Raiders meeting (3-24-0
in Week 10), but Las Vegas has allowed the 5th most WR touchdowns,
and Sutton remains Denver’s premier red-zone threat (13
TDs since 2024). Against this defense, he holds low-end WR2 value
with touchdown upside.
Bo Nix and the Raiders defense have both lived on the volatility
spectrum this year. Nix opened the season swinging between QB3-caliber
and QB1-caliber performances, then erupted for 61.8 combined points
in Weeks 7–8, only to fall back under 18.5 FPts in every
game since.
The Raiders defense is similarly inconsistent — capable of slowing
top-end QBs (Maye, Williams, Herbert) and just as capable of melting
against mid-tier options (Mariota, Lawrence). Nix produced only
9.8 FPts when these teams met earlier, but that didn’t stop Justin
Herbert from posting 20.8 in his second crack at Las Vegas. Nix
remains a volatile borderline QB1.
The WR rotation behind Sutton is also at an inflection point.
Troy Franklin continues to receive forced targets from Nix, but
his snap share has slipped significantly — from the 70s
in Weeks 9–10 to 66% and 53% the last two weeks. Meanwhile,
Pat Bryant is creeping up in playing time (season-high 70% last
week) and production: 13 targets, 8 catches, 124 yards over the
last two weeks, plus 10.3 YPT in his last five games.
Bryant also logged a 43-yard catch vs. Las Vegas in Week 10 on
just a 49% snap rate. Both Bryant and Franklin carry boom/bust
flex appeal, with Franklin offering a slightly higher floor and
Bryant presenting the higher ceiling.
Harvey’s first two games as the lead back have been mixed.
Efficiency is a major concern — under 2.8 YPC in four straight
games — but touchdowns have kept him afloat (two last week,
eight on the year). His receiving usage (3-23.5-0 per game the
last two weeks) stabilizes his floor, and his matchup offers hope:
Las Vegas has allowed 14 RB touchdowns (7th most). Harvey is a
touchdown-dependent low-end RB2.
Evan Engram finally showed life in Week 13, posting season highs
in targets (9), receptions (6), and yards (79). Encouraging as
that is, he had not topped 42 yards in any previous game and still
has only 1 touchdown on the season. This looks more like an outlier
than a breakout.
The Raiders have also been consistently tough on tight ends,
allowing only one TE all season (Travis Kelce, 54 yards) to exceed
50 yards against them. Engram was held to 12 yards when he last
faced them in Week 10. He’s a TE2 this week.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Since Brock Bowers returned, Ashton Jeanty hasn’t seen
better rushing lanes (no more than 3.2 YPC in any of the last
five games), but his receiving usage has notably increased —
5.6 receptions per game with two receiving scores since Week 8.
That bump has stabilized his season-long value, rising to RB15
in FPts/G (13.2).
Denver presents a difficult matchup: 3.8 YPC allowed and a league-low
32 receptions surrendered to RBs. Jeanty managed 13.8 FPts against
them in Week 10 thanks to a touchdown, but he was otherwise inefficient
(60 rushing yards, three receiving yards). He projects similarly
here: a touchdown-dependent RB2.
Tre Tucker posted only 2-28-0 on three targets in the previous
meeting with Denver, and since his lone notable game in that span
(4-47-1 vs. Dallas), he has not exceeded 38 yards in any of the
last six weeks. Against an elite Broncos secondary, he’s
no better than a WR5.
Back in September, Odunze looked like an ascending fantasy star,
scoring in each of the team’s first four games with five
total TDs. Since then, it’s been more misses than hits.
He has just one TD in his last eight games, and he’s been
held under 50 yards five times in that stretch, reflecting the
team’s transformation into a run-heavy group. Fresh off
their dismantling of the Eagles, you can bet the Bears will look
to ride their backs once again this Sunday. Green Bay boasts a
solid run defense, however, being one of eight NFL clubs to allow
less than 100 yards per game and ranking tied for fifth in yards
per carry. That could mean more of the passing attack, and within
that, Odunze is the most likely of the bunch to deliver. As a
WR3, he could offer a decent return on investment.
The development of Monangai has been huge in facilitating a run-first
approach on offense. The rookie has scored in four consecutive
games, and he’s coming off a 22-carry, 130-yard effort in
Philadelphia. He’s very much earned a spot in lineups based
on your alternatives, but you should view his likely output to
be more in line with what he did from Weeks 10-12, when he averaged
33 rushing yards per game along with those weekly scores. As a
flex, Monangai holds good upside. As more than that, it gets risky.
Although he made a couple of nice plays, Williams didn’t
do much for fantasy owners in Philly, completing less than half
of his passes and finishing with 154 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT. The
second-year pro has pretty decent year-to-date numbers, but 817
yards and 10 TDs came in three games against the Cowboys, Bengals,
and Steelers, which own the 30th, 32nd, and 28th-ranked pass defenses,
respectively. In his other nine games, he's averaging 212 yards
with 7 TDs and 5 INTs. The Packers rank sixth against the pass,
so if you elect to start Williams, you’re banking on him
bucking a season-long trend of only delivering strong fantasy
numbers in highly favorable matchups.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Primarily a designated downfield threat before his ACL injury
back in January, Watson has operated all over the field since
returning in Week 8, averaging 3.5 receptions and 61 yards per
game with three touchdowns, including a 51-yard bomb on Thanksgiving.
For comparison, Watson, who has 21 receptions through six games,
had 29 catches in 15 games last year and 28 in nine games in 2023.
Over the last three weeks, he has been targeted 22 times. It’s
always dangerous to rely too heavily on a Packers wideout -- Dontayvion
Wicks (6-94-2) was huge against the Lions, Romeo Doubs scored
as well, and the team could get Matthew Golden (wrist) and/or
Jayden Reed (shoulder) back from injury this week. That’s a lot
of mouths to feed. Still, with the way Watson has been playing
of late, he belongs in your lineup as a WR3 with some juice.
If you’re unfamiliar with the legend of Toyotathon Jordan
Love, take a moment and google it. We’ll wait here until
you’re done. Suffice to say, Love’s performance in
Detroit on Thanksgiving only fed that narrative as he threw for
234 yards and 4 TDs, including two on fourth down. Up next, he
sets his sights on the Bears. Chicago is an interesting group
defensively, sitting 22nd in overall pass defense, 29th in passing
TDs allowed, and first in interceptions. They also got Jaylon
Johnson back on Black Friday after a lengthy absence. While this
looks like an area the Packers could still attack, the Bears quietly
rank 28th in the league against the run, and only the Giants have
given up more yards per carry than Chicago (5.2). We’ve
seen the run-heavy Packers in Week 12, and then the Love show
last Thursday, making it tough to anticipate which approach we’ll
see this Sunday. In turn, that makes Love a risk/reward option.
Matthew Stafford nearly tied Tom Brady’s record of 27 consecutive
games with a touchdown pass last week, but the outing ultimately
unraveled into a sloppy performance with three turnovers. Even
so, he still connected with Davante Adams for two scores, and
he’s well-positioned to rebound against an aggressive Cardinals
defense. Stafford sits 6th among quarterbacks in fantasy points
this season and profiles as a top-5 option in Week 14.
Kyren Williams continues to command the bulk of the work despite
Blake Corum carving out a stable complementary role. Williams
briefly exited last week with an ankle issue, but all indications
point toward him being ready for Week 14. His practice participation
should still be monitored. Arizona has surrendered 15 touchdowns
to opposing running backs, and Williams has now logged his third
straight season with double-digit scores. He’s an RB1 against
the Cardinals.
In the unlikely but possible scenario that Kyren Williams is
unable to play, Blake Corum—who posted 81 yards and a touchdown
last week—would step directly into Williams’ role
and would likely dominate the early-down work. His receiving profile
(12 career catches in 29 games) limits his ceiling, but the volume
alone would make him a strong RB2 versus Arizona. Otherwise, he
remains a stash.
Fade: N/A
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Jacoby Brissett is in the best stretch of his career, averaging
over 22 FPts/G in seven starts since taking over for Kyler Murray.
He kept it rolling last week with 301 yards, two touchdowns, and
16 rushing yards.
The Rams have been tough on quarterbacks (9th fewest points allowed),
but the Cardinals are likely to trail, which sets Brissett up
for a potential 5th straight game with 40+ pass attempts. That
volume keeps him squarely in the QB1 discussion.
With Marvin Harrison Jr. dealing with a heel injury and trending
toward another absence, Michael Wilson once again steps into the
primary receiver role. It was encouraging that Brissett continued
looking his way even with Harrison active last week, giving him
seven targets despite the sub-40-yard outcome.
Wilson’s long-term projection remains a bit of a mystery,
but two games well over 100 yards earlier in the season highlight
his ceiling. If Harrison sits, Wilson is a must-start.
Few teams have been tougher on running backs than the Rams, who
have allowed just two rushing touchdowns all season. Even with
Trey Benson trending toward another missed week, Bam Knight has
struggled with efficiency (3.4 YPC) and has relied almost entirely
on touchdowns—four on the year—to stay afloat. Against this front,
and in a game script likely to tilt negative, Knight is a justified
fade.
After a slow start, Nico Collins is finally producing like the
WR1 drafters expected. He’s posted at least 17.1 FPts in
three of his last four games and has seen 10 or more targets in
five of his last six. Last week he delivered 5 catches for 98
yards on 10 targets, plus a bonus 7-yard rushing touchdown—his
fifth score of the year. With 20 touchdowns and 12 games over
100 yards in the past three seasons, Collins remains a proven
high-end producer. He’s a Top 10 option against Kansas City.
Jayden Higgins is trending upward as well. Over his last four
games, he’s hit at least 7.5 FPts each week and has averaged
10.3 FPts/G. He’s also seeing about 7 targets per game during
that stretch and has scored twice. Last week he was perfect on
5 targets with a season-high 65 receiving yards. Higgins’
size and reliability (just one drop all season) give him appeal,
though his snap rate stuck in the mid-50s to low-60s limits his
ceiling. He’s in the back-end flex mix versus the Chiefs.
Kansas City has faced one of the toughest QB schedules in the
league—four of the top five QBs and seven current Top 12
options—and still grades out as no worse than average statistically.
That makes this a tough spot for C.J. Stroud, who sits at QB25.
Unless Houston is forced into an unusually pass-heavy script,
Stroud is likely no more than a low-end QB2.
Woody Marks has controlled the backfield lately (19 touches per
game over his last four), but the production hasn’t followed.
He hasn’t reached 7 FPts in any of his last three games,
and since his Week 4 breakout he’s averaged just 7.3 FPts/G.
Houston’s run-game inefficiency combined with a tough Chiefs
matchup (who recently held Jonathan Taylor under 8 FPts) makes
Marks benchable for most managers.
Dalton Schultz has been more involved since Week 5, averaging
8.8 FPts/G in that stretch, but still sits closer to TE20 on the
year. Kansas City has shut down tight ends consistently, recently
bottling up Jake Ferguson and Tyler Warren. Schultz is a mid-range
TE2.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Travis Kelce’s late-season surge continued last week with his
fifth touchdown, along with five receptions against Dallas. Houston’s
tight end stats are deceptive—they’ve allowed the 5th fewest FPts,
but have only faced two Top 12 tight ends all year. Both George
Kittle and Tyler Warren delivered near-average production in those
matchups.
Given the Texans’ fearsome pass rush and Kansas City’s
injured offensive line, Kelce should again be a focal point for
Mahomes. He’s a mid-TE1.
Patrick Mahomes, sitting at QB2, is back to elite fantasy performance
in 2025. But Houston presents one of his toughest matchups: they
haven’t allowed a single quarterback to top 20 FPts and
just made Josh Allen look overwhelmed. Mahomes’ mobility
and improvisation should make him one of the stronger performers
against Houston this season, but expectations should be tempered
to the low-end QB1 range as the Chiefs are banged up on the offensive
line.
Kareem Hunt has climbed into the Top 30 thanks to eight touchdowns
and a massive 30-carry outlier performance two weeks ago. Otherwise,
he’s been a 5–13 carry player most weeks. Houston
has allowed the 3rd fewest rushing yards to RBs but a middling
10 touchdowns. Hunt remains a TD-dependent flex.
Xavier Worthy has been more productive the last two weeks (4
catches, 66.5 yards per game), but still has just one double-digit
fantasy outing all season—and that came versus an injury-ravaged
Baltimore defense in Week 4. Houston allows the 3rd fewest points
to receivers. Worthy belongs on benches.
The Chargers have made life difficult on opposing quarterbacks
(4th fewest FPts/G allowed), but the five notable fantasy QBs
they’ve faced have still averaged a startable 19.1 FPts/G.
They’ve also been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, tied
for the 8th most rushing touchdowns allowed to the position (3).
That’s firmly in Jalen Hurts’ wheelhouse.
On an Eagles offense that has been chaotic all season, Hurts
has been the lone stabilizing force. He’s scored at least
19 FPts in eight of his last ten games. He may not carry elite
upside in Week 14, but he’s a clear Top 10 option versus
the Chargers.
A.J. Brown has rebounded with back-to-back spike weeks (21 and
30.2 FPts), catapulting himself back into the Top 12 at wide receiver.
The Chargers have allowed the fewest FPts/G to opposing WRs, but
that ranking is inflated by one of the softest receiver schedules
in the league. Their notable tests—Michael Pittman Jr. (15.3),
Jaylen Waddle (12.5), Deebo Samuel (19.6), and Courtland Sutton
(20.6)—all produced without issue. There is little evidence
this secondary is truly stifling.
The real challenge with Brown is the Eagles’ game-to-game
unpredictability. Usage can swing wildly week to week. Still,
his ceiling is as high as anyone’s at the position, and
after the last two weeks, he must remain in lineups. He’s
a volatile WR1 versus L.A.
DeVonta Smith continues to be the strong complementary piece
he’s always been opposite Brown. Currently WR24 in FPts/G,
he may benefit from more defensive attention shifting toward Brown
after his recent surge. Smith carries mid-WR2 value this week.
Saquon Barkley’s 2024 season was astounding—20.9
FPts/G on a massive workload. His 2025 season has been the cold
winter that followed. He’s averaging just 12.8 FPts/G and
only 9.4 FPts/G over the last month.
The Chargers have allowed four multi-touchdown RB games and are
overall middling against the position, offering at least a chance
for Barkley to rebound. But with only 8 broken tackles all season
(down from 25 last year), the effects of his 2024 workload appear
real. In Week 14, he’s a cautious, volume-based RB2.
Only Brock Bowers, Tyler Warren, and Travis Kelce have dented
the Chargers this season at tight end. Dallas Goedert has enjoyed
a healthy year and ranks 8th in total TE points, but he doesn’t
operate as heavily in the offense as those three do.
Goedert’s value has come from a career-high 7 touchdowns,
but he hasn’t scored in four straight games and has topped
44 receiving yards just once. Without end-zone involvement, he’s
a tough sell. He’s a high-end TE2 this week.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Philadelphia was gashed on the ground by Chicago last week, with
both D’Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai topping 100 rushing
yards. Expect Jim Harbaugh to lean heavily into the run, especially
with the Chargers’ passing attack compromised due to Herbert’s
hand injury.
Kimani Vidal handled 25 carries in Week 13 and delivered his
third 100-yard game in seven contests since Omarion Hampton went
down Hampton’s return window is open, but even if he plays,
a split is likely. Vidal holds high-end RB2 value with RB1 upside
if Hampton remains out.
If Hampton returns, both backs can still be flex plays—mirroring
the Swift/Monangai approach from last week. A repeat double-100-yard
performance is unrealistic, but opportunity should be there for
both.
Ladd McConkey posted a 4-39-1 line in Week 13, giving him double-digit
points in six of his last eight games. He remains the steadiest
option in a suddenly shaky offense. But his recent workload reveals
the cracks: prior to last week’s score-boosted outing, he
managed just 3 catches for 13 yards.
Complicating matters, Justin Herbert is attempting to play through
a fracture in his non-throwing hand. That lowers the ceiling for
everyone in this passing game. McConkey is still the best bet
among Chargers receivers, but he’s a low-end WR2 versus
Philadelphia.
Behind an injured offensive line and now playing through a fractured
non-throwing hand, Justin Herbert has slipped to 22nd in FPts/G
over his last five outings. This offense once again resembles
the inconsistent version from 2024. The Eagles’ front seven
is unlikely to provide a reprieve. Herbert belongs on benches.
Quentin Johnston found the end zone last week, giving him 15
touchdowns over the last two seasons. But he hasn’t cracked
53 yards since Week 4 and draws an Eagles defense that has allowed
just six WR touchdowns all year (2nd fewest). Johnston remains
a TD-or-bust WR5 and should sit.
Oronde Gadsden II also runs into a tough matchup. Philadelphia
allows the 3rd fewest points to tight ends. Gadsden is 29th in
FPts/G over the past five weeks and, while perhaps more of a TE2
than a TE3, is still not a realistic start outside extremely deep
formats.
