Chiefs @ Colts - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Chiefs aren’t the league’s top passing attack, or anywhere near it, but they are efficient and have their handy parts for fantasy owners. Alex Smith was a decent QB2 for the year, ending outside the top-15 at his position in fantasy points and though Dwayne Bowe disappointed, he is still dangerous. Fantasy owners should skip out on Smith if possible, but Bowe is a solid WR3 against Indy.

The Colts were 13th in the NFL in pass defense, surrendered the seventh-fewest passing scores, held tight ends to the fifth-fewest fantasy points, but were right in the middle of the league in terms of points allowed to quarterbacks and wideouts.

Running Game Thoughts: Simply put, there was no more productive running back this season in fantasy football than Jamaal Charles. He had almost 1,300 rushing yards, scored a total of 19 touchdowns (rushing and receiving), had 70 catches and accumulated nearly 700 receiving yards. There isn’t much else fantasy owners need to know – Charles has to be in their lineups against the Colts. Indy was 26th in the league in run defense, 18th in rushing scores yielded, but gave up the 13th-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Projections:
Alex Smith: 175 pass yds, 1 TD, 40 rush yds
Dwayne Bowe: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Donnie Avery: 50 rec yds
Dexter McCluster: 20 rec yds
Jamaal Charles: 105 rush yds, 1 TD, 25 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Though it seemed as if Andrew Luck underachieved a bit this season, he did have more than 3,800 passing yards, threw for 23 touchdowns (and only eight interceptions) while running for 377 yards and four scores. He was the number seven quarterback in fantasy, and did that while playing most of the year without Reggie Wayne. Luck is definitely a solid fantasy option this week against Kansas City, as is his top target, T.Y. Hilton.

The Chiefs were 25th in the league in pass defense, 14th in passing scores surrendered, allowed the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and the 15th-most fantasy points to wideouts, but held tight ends to the third-lowest fantasy point total in the NFL.

Running Game Thoughts: The Colts don’t have much of a running game, though they do their best to pound the rock with Donald Brown and Trent Richardson. Neither back has much explosiveness or usefulness for fantasy owners against the Chiefs. K.C. was 22nd in the NFL in run defense but allowed the sixth-fewest rushing scores in the league while ranking 16th in fantasy points allowed to running backs.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 225 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yds, 2 TD
Griff Whalen: 55 rec yds
Da’Rick Rogers: 30 rec yds
Coby Fleener: 15 rec yds
Donald Brown: 40 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Trent Richardson: 30 rush yds, 15 rec yds

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Colts 17 ^ Top

Saints @ Eagles - (Smith)

Passing Game Thoughts: The Saints are coming off a victory at home in which Drew Brees threw for 381 yards and four touchdowns to lock himself into fantasy’s number two quarterback. Unfortunately, this game will take place in Philadelphia, where New Orleans plays like a totally different team. Brees, Marques Colston and Jimmy Graham are still legit fantasy options, but that’s mostly due to the team they are facing.

The Eagles allowed more passing yards than any other team in the NFL and though they held tight ends down in terms of fantasy points allowed, they surrendered the most fantasy points in the league to wideouts and the fifth-most to quarterbacks.

Running Game Thoughts: The Saints’ running game is really a short-passing attack with a few runs mixed in. Individual running backs don’t have much success (with a few exceptions) in terms of running the ball for New Orleans and their stable of backs is best suited to stay on the benches of fantasy owners, especially against a good Eagles run defense. Philadelphia had the league’s 10th-best rush defense this season and allowed the 12th-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 365 pass yds, 3 TD, 2 INT
Jimmy Graham: 95 rec yds, 2 TD
Marques Colston: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
Kenny Stills: 55 rec yds
Lance Moore: 40 rec yds
Khiry Robinson: 35 rush yds
Pierre Thomas: 30 rush yds, 20 rec yds
Mark Ingram: 25 rush yds
Darren Sproles: 10 rush yds, 30 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: Nick Foles had an insanely good TD-INT ratio of 27-2 this year and even ran for three scores, but failed to crack the top-15 in fantasy quarterbacks due to the fact he threw for less than 2,900 yards. DeSean Jackson and Riley Cooper are top-25 fantasy wideouts, but fantasy owners should limit their options to Jackson due to the tough match-up the Eagles have.

New Orleans gave up the second-fewest passing yards in the league as well as the sixth-fewest touchdown passes. They also allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to quarterbacks, the seventh-fewest points to wide receivers, and the eighth-fewest points to tight ends.

Running Game Thoughts: LeSean McCoy wasn’t the best fantasy running back this season – that honor went to Jamaal Charles – but McCoy was number two. He led the league with more than 1,600 rushing yards, had nine scores on the ground and was an able pass-catcher. The opponent he faces is irrelevant, fantasy owners should simply never bench him, and it’s not like New Orleans is formidable against the rush. The Saints had the league’s 19th-ranked run defense, yet still allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to running backs.

Projections:
Nick Foles: 255 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT
DeSean Jackson: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Riley Cooper: 60 rec yds
Brent Celek: 40 rec yds, 1 TD
Jason Avant: 35 rec yds
LeSean McCoy: 115 rush yds, 1 TD, 20 rec yds

Prediction: Eagles 24, Saints 21

Chargers @ Bengals - (Anderson)

Passing Game Thoughts: Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing attack against the Bengals pass defense will not only be the most interesting matchup in this game but most likely the difference in the outcome. Rivers is having perhaps the best year of his career and has the Chargers fourth in passing yardage, first in completion percentage, fourth in passing yards per attempt, and second in quarterback rating, thanks in large part to a nice 32:11 TD:INT ratio. What’s perhaps most impressive is that the Chargers' balance on offense means this is not a pure pass-happy offense, with just the 22nd most passing attempts in the league. In other words, Rivers has been extremely efficient this season and, while he does not have the most talented receiving corps in the league, he makes the most of what he has, and guys have stepped up all year in critical situations for the team. While Antonio Gates is having a generally down year for his standards, new blood has been infused on this offense, with rookie wide receiver Keenan Allen (possibly rookie of the year) and running back Danny Woodhead, who leads all NFL backs in receptions this season. While the Chargers do not have the firepower as, say, the Broncos do, they can put up points in bunches if they get hot, even against good defenses, as they did against the Chiefs in Kansas City, where they put up 41 points and nearly 400 passing yards. While the Chargers do not have great speed on offense, they call great plays, run good routes, and Rivers is about as hot as they come this year, so upsetting the Bengals is certainly a possibility.

For the Bengals defense, they continue to be one of the best units in the NFL despite a series of injuries to key players. On the year they have given up the fifth fewest passing yards in the NFL and rank among the top 10 in completion percentage allowed, interceptions, quarterback rating allowed, and yards per passing attempt allowed. It will be strength against strength in this matchup, as the Chargers are efficient through the air and the Bengals are one of the best at disrupting an opposing team’s passing attack. The first time these two met this year, about a month ago in San Diego, the Bengals defense had one of their best performances, holding the Chargers to just 10 points (their lowest of the year) and limiting Rivers to 252 yards and just one touchdown with one interception. This will now be an away game for San Diego, and with temperatures at least 35 degrees colder in Cincinnati, the Chargers will certainly need to have all cylinders firing early if they do not want a repeat of that last meeting. While both the Chargers offense and the Bengals defense have had lapses this year, I tend to think that in a home playoff game the defense, if above average, usually has the advantage over a similarly skilled offense. While I very much doubt the Chargers are held to just 10 points again this week, it is certainly possible that Rivers struggles a bit against a tough defense, especially with his best weapon (Allen) being a rookie in his first playoff game. If I were playing fantasy football this week, I would personally avoid Rivers, as I believe he might have the toughest matchup of any QB this week, and I would rather have any other starting QB—other than Alex Smith—in a fantasy matchup. While Rivers and the Chargers passing attack has had a wonderful season, the matchup here may be just too tough to overcome.

Running Game Thoughts: Another great strength-versus-strength matchup here, as the Chargers are a solid running team and the Bengals defend the run quite well. Ryan Matthews, considered by many to be a bust the last few years, has had a career year in 2013, rushing for 1,255 yards and averaging a solid 4.4 yards per carry while only really missing serious time in two games because of injury, something that he has struggled with throughout his career. What is perhaps more impressive is that he has actually gotten better as the season has gone on, with three of his six 100-yard games coming in the past four weeks, with a nine-yard game in between. While the Chargers looked like they would be a pass-heavy team early in the year, Matthews' emergence and consistency have given this team a well-balanced attack and led to their finishing the regular season 13th in rushing yards. In addition to Matthews, Danny Woodhead has been a key piece to this offense out of the backfield, rushing for 429 yards and adding an additional 600 through the air. With a solid one-two punch, both backs are able to stay relatively fresh throughout the game and defenses must be ready for the diverse skill sets these two backs bring.

On the defensive side, the Bengals run defense finished the regular season giving up the fifth fewest yards in the league and the third fewest rushing touchdowns. While touchdowns can be fluky, this specific area is a solid advantage for the Bengals, as the Chargers have just nine rushing touchdowns on the season, tied for fifth fewest in the NFL. With Matthews being as hot as any running back in the league right now, the Chargers may go run-heavy in this game, at least early, in order to slow the game down and perhaps get the crowd out of it a little bit. In the previous meeting between these teams, Matthews got just 14 carries (61 yards), but I would be surprised if he does not come close to doubling that total in this game. While I still think the home team with a very solid defense gets a bit of the advantage here, Matthews should be able to put up solid totals thanks to the volume of work he should receive. For fantasy purposes I would use Matthews as a solid low-end RB1 who should have nice final numbers even if he is not as efficient as he has been the past few weeks. Woodhead at this point is very valuable to the team but not a legit fantasy option anymore unless it is a PPR format.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Keenan Allen: 70 rec yds
Ryan Mathews: 85 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 15 rush yds, 35 rec yds
Antonio Gates: 50 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: While certainly not as efficient or consistent as the Chargers passing attack, the Bengals have been effective through the air this season, finishing eighth in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns. Of course the big difference here is that Andy Dalton and the Bengals passing game was far less efficient, throwing nine more interceptions and completing 7.5 percent less of their passes. There were huge games where Dalton looked like a Pro Bowl quarterback, as in week 16 (366 yds, 4 TDs), but also weeks when you wondered why he is even a starting NFL quarterback, like in Week 4 (206 yrds, 0 TD, 1 INT). Dalton has looked great at times but also has five games where he threw two or more interceptions and five games where he threw one or no touchdown passes. His consistency is frustrating to watch as both an NFL fan and a fantasy owner, but his upside is undeniable, as the Bengals have one of the better receiving corps in the league. With A.J. Green being one of the top five or so wide receivers in the game, Marvin Jones emerging as a solid No. 2 wide receiver (at least the second half of the season), Tyler Eifert and Jermaine Gresham both being solid pass-catching tight ends, and Giovani Bernard being one of the more explosive receivers out of the backfield, Dalton has five solid targets to throw to and has made each of them fantasy relevant throughout the course of the year.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Chargers are not especially strong in defending the pass, giving up the fourth most passing yards in the NFL and allowing a healthy 66.4 completion percentage and 8.0 yards per pass attempt. While they are not a very good defense, they have been playing quite a bit better over the past five weeks or so—and of course it didn't help that they had to play Denver two times, so perhaps the numbers are just a bit skewed. In general though, the Chargers do not have the playmakers on defense to stop the weapons the Bengals have on offense, especially the wide receivers, a skill position that San Diego has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to on the season. While the Chargers have allowed the 12th fewest passing touchdowns in the league, they do not cause a lot of turnovers and their pass rush ranks in the lower half of the league. The matchup is juicy for Dalton and the Bengals and really, unless Dalton trips over himself (which he certainly has before), the scene is set for this Bengals offense to put up 27 or more points with little resistance. The only one that can stop Dalton in this game is Dalton himself, and that is where the fear lies in the hearts of Bengals fans, as their faith in their quarterback is still not that solid. While I do not believe Dalton will have a huge game, I think in front of a home crowd, against a soft defense, he should do enough to get the ball into his playmakers hands and let them do most of the heavy lifting. For fantasy purposes, Dalton has one of the best, if not the best matchup of the weekend, and while he is obviously not an elite fantasy QB, he is a sneaky good play this week for those still playing. A.J. Green could easily be the top WR scorer this week, as the Chargers are generous to WRs and he is about as talented as any still playing at this point in the year. While I would not really consider any other Bengals passing game player as a solid fantasy bet this week, watch the injury report on Eifert, as he is questionable and his absence would be just a small downgrade for the Bengals offense, but a nice upgrade for his TE teammate, Gresham, who could then see a few additional targets.

Running Game Thoughts: Perhaps surprisingly, the big performer the first time these two teams met earlier this season was BenJarvus Green-Ellis, who ran for 92 yards and a touchdown on just 20 carries. That was Green-Ellis's biggest rushing game of the year, so right off the bat we know at least one guy who is excited to see this Chargers team come to Cincinnati for the first round of the playoffs. Of course, other than that game, BJGE has basically been a disappointment, getting a solid number of carries but averaging a pitiful 3.4 yards per carry and offering little else outside of the occasional touchdown (7 all year). His backfield mate, Giovani Bernard, has been a totally different story, as his touches are somewhat limited but his explosiveness is evident, he is averaging 4.1 yards per carry and is among the best receivers out of the backfield in the league today. While the amount of touches each back gets fluctuates week to week, the Bengals run game as a whole is relatively strong, and with a solid defense behind them and some nice receivers to keep the defense honest, this backfield could be a key piece in the Bengals' playoff run. The Chargers run defense is 12th best in rushing yards allowed but is not really quite as good as that ranking may imply, as they have allowed a generous 4.6 yards per carry, tied for fourth most in the NFL. The Chargers also rank in the bottom half of the league in rushing touchdowns allowed, despite facing fewer rushing attempts than most teams, and are coming off a game where the Chiefs rested Jamaal Charles and most of their offense yet still rushed for 143 yards. While the Bengals run game is probably not explosive enough to do that much damage this week, chances are pretty good that BJGE and Bernard combine to go over the 100-yard mark without much problem. This specific matchup is an advantage for the Bengals, though not a huge one. For fantasy purposes, I don't love either back a ton here because of the split work and unpredictability of their touches. However, I actually prefer BJGE here as a sneaky play because I think there is a decent chance he gets into the end zone and should see a healthy amount of carries in order to keep the ball out of Philip Rivers' hands. Bernard continues to be the more exciting back to watch but is still not getting enough touches to be fully trusted.

Projections:
Andy Dalton: 280 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT
A.J. Green: 90 rec yds, 1 TD
Giovani Bernard: 50 rush yds, 30 rec yds
BenJarvus Green-Ellis: 70 rush yds, 1 TD
Jermaine Gresham: 50 rec yds
Marvin Jones: 55 rec yds

Prediction: Bengals 28, Chargers 24

49ers @ Packers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Colin Kaepernick started the season off very slow with 13 or fewer fantasy points (standard scoring) in four of his first five games of the season; but he finished strong, ending as the No. 9 QB in fantasy football for the 2013 season. While ninth is a disappointment for fantasy owners who had high hopes of him being a top-five fantasy QB, Kaepernick been very consistent over the past few weeks. Over his past three games, he has thrown for 710 yards with five total touchdowns while not throwing a single interception. His rushing has also been fairly decent, with an average of 39 yards per game and a touchdown on the ground since Week 15. Tight end Vernon Davis frustrated many fantasy owners with his goose egg in Week 16 and may have been the reason that some people lost their fantasy championships, but there is no question that he has excelled this season from an overall fantasy standpoint. Davis’s 13 touchdowns tied a career-high and his 850 yards were the third most that he has had in his illustrious career. Davis finished as the No. 2 TE in all of fantasy football, a good distance behind Jimmy Graham, but still was one of the most valuable assets in all of fantasy football. After a mid-season lull of struggle of fantasy struggles, receiver Anquan Boldin really turned it on at the end of the year. He scored nine or more fantasy points in six of his final seven games of the season, including an excellent 21-point day against a very good Arizona defense in Week 17. Fellow receiver Michael Crabtree, now back and moving at least close to full speed, has been, as one would expect, fairly inconsistent. Still, since his return back to the lineup, Crabtree has posted an average of 6.4 fantasy points per game and appears to be solidly entrenched as the team’s No. 2 fantasy WR as we head into the playoffs.

Despite having a three-and-a-half game lead on the Packers in the standings, the 49ers will be forced to travel to Green Bay this week, where they will face the NFC North division champions. This is an excellent matchup for the San Francisco passing game, as Green Bay has struggled mightily to slow down opposing quarterbacks in recent weeks. They’ve allowed multiple touchdowns in five straight games to end the season. Their No. 25-ranked fantasy defense against opposing quarterbacks is second-worst among all NFC playoff teams (only the Eagles are worse) and this is definitely the kind of matchup that Kaepernick and the 49ers can exploit. Those who will be riding the hot hand of tight end Vernon Davis in the playoffs will be excited to hear that the Packers have also been suspect against opposing tight ends this season. While their ranking of 20th doesn’t sound so bad, the fact that they’ve allowed three touchdowns to the position over their past four games has to make Davis one of the better fantasy TE plays of the Wild Card weekend. Things are also looking good for receivers Anquan Boldin and Michael Crabtree. Green Bay allowed at least one receiving touchdown to an opposing wide receiver in eight of their final nine regular season games and surrendered three games of 200-plus yards to the position during that stretch.

Running Game Thoughts: San Francisco running back Frank Gore finished the 2013 season as the No. 13 RB in fantasy football, which is a solid contribution from a player who has now moved into his 30’s. Still, that has to be a disappointment for those who saw great early-season returns from Gore. He started the season at an incredible pace, finishing with 10 or more fantasy points in eight of his first nine games. Since that point, however, he seems to have slowed down significantly. Gore eclipsed the 10-point mark just twice in his final seven games, while averaging just 7.1 fantasy points per game. Worst yet was his Week 17 performance, where he scored just a single fantasy point against the Cardinals. While Arizona has been one of the very best defenses in the league all year, even that doesn’t excuse the disappointment that fantasy owners felt when Gore hit them with his worst game in over two full seasons.

Increased passing numbers from Colin Kaepernick could be partially to blame for the lack of production from Gore, but fantasy owners will be looking for more than excuses as the 49ers head to Green Bay. The Packers are the owners of the 26th-ranked defense against opposing fantasy RBs and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns over their final 10 games. Worse yet, they allowed an average of 138.8 rushing yards per game during that stretch, including back-to-back 200-plus yard games in Weeks 12 and 13 and three straight games of 120-plus yards as we head into the playoffs. Gore has been frustrating to own, but the low temperatures and adverse throwing conditions could mean that the 49ers rely more on him this week than they have as of late. It would not be surprising to see Gore touch the ball 20 times this week, which would make him a player to watch in the Wild Card round.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 255 pass yds, 2 TDs, 25 rush yds
Frank Gore: 65 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 85 rec yds, 1 TD
Michael Crabtree: 60 rec yds
Vernon Davis: 75 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Welcome back, Aaron! The return of the former NFL MVP could not have come at a better time, as Aaron Rodgers took the field this past Sunday when the Packers traveled to Chicago to battle the Bears for the NFC North division title. As most expected he would, Rodgers struggled at times after a seven-game layoff, even throwing two interceptions on the day. He recovered in the end, though, as he showed off his incredible mobility before throwing a 48-yard strike to the also-returning Randall Cobb for a game-winning touchdown in the final minute of the game. The Green Bay running game has been working very well in Rodgers’ absence, but make no mistake about it—with their leader back, this offense will be throwing the ball plenty in the playoffs. This, of course, means good things for all of the Green Bay receivers. Cobb caught two passes, both for touchdowns, for 55 yards in his first game back. But the player who benefitted most from Rodgers’ return to the field was definitely Jordy Nelson. Nelson had gone over 90 yards just once since Rodgers’ injury back in Week 9. In Week 17, Nelson caught a season-high 10 passes for 161 yards, also a season high, and was targeted 16 times on the day.

Both Nelson and Cobb are in line for some potentially big fantasy days throughout the playoffs if the Packers can move on, but things could be tough on Wild Card weekend as the San Francisco 49ers head to town. San Francisco has been excellent against opposing passing games this season, having allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2013. This includes having allowed single-digit fantasy points to opposing QBs in five different games and only two 20-plus point days on the year. The one positive thing that Packers fans and Aaron Rodgers can hang their hats on going into Sunday is that the 49ers defense has not played quite as well against the pass in recent weeks. San Francisco has allowed a total of 755 yards passing yards and four touchdowns against them over their past two games, both close wins over the Falcons and Cardinals. Rodgers and the Packers have an opportunity to go up against the 49ers defense at arguably their most vulnerable point of the season, at home, in a big time playoff environment. It almost screams “big time game from Aaron Rodgers,” doesn’t it?

Running Game Thoughts: Many fans and experts are calling Green Bay running back Eddie Lacy the Rookie of the Year, and for good reason. The former Alabama back burst onto the scene in 2013, rushing for 1,178 yards and 11 touchdowns despite missing nearly two full games; that makes him the No. 6 RB in standard scoring fantasy leagues this season. Lacy has been battling an ankle injury of late, which has led to increased touches for backup James Starks, but the Green Bay coaching staff has already said that Lacy is physically better heading into Wild Card weekend than he was in Week 17 against the Bears. An ankle injury didn’t prevent Lacy from taking 21 carries for 66 yards in that contest either, as he scored a touchdown for the fourth straight game.

Although one would have to assume that Lacy will still be conceding some touches to Starks in this weekend’s contest, there is still reason to be optimistic about Lacy’s chances to produce some decent fantasy numbers. San Francisco’s defense has been excellent as a whole for years now, but if there is one place they have struggled, it has been against running backs near the goal line. The 49ers allowed 10 rushing touchdowns in 2013, including the first score of Lacy’s NFL career all the way back in Week 1. Although he only rushed for 41 yards on 14 carries in that contest, Lacy was still getting used to the offense and has since seen a significant increase in touches ever since. Only once since Week 1 has Lacy taken fewer than 14 carries in a game that he played all the way through. In fact, he’s had more than 20 carries in 10 of his 14 “healthy” games. That kind of workload, combined with Lacy’s nose for the end zone, makes him about as matchup-proof as any back in the league. This is certainly not going to be a walk in the park, but Lacy is the kind of player who can produce even against tough defenses. Look for him to put in another solid day of work even against this highly touted San Francisco defense.

Projections:
Aaron Rodgers: 325 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT, 10 rush yds
Eddie Lacy: 60 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
James Starks: 25 rush yds
Jordy Nelson: 115 rec yds, 1 TD
Randall Cobb: 80 rec yds, 1 TD
James Jones: 60 rec yds
Jarrett Boykin: 20 rec yds
Andrew Quarless: 20 rec yds

Prediction: 49ers 27, Packers 24