Team Fit: It is hard to fault Tennessee here,
as Levis enters the NFL without the pressure of being a high first-round
pick. Likewise, Ryan
Tannehill, who enters the final year of his contract, can
play without the pressure that comes along with a veteran trying
to hold off a prospect that carries the expectations of such a
high draft choice. The Titans will probably pride themselves on
being a power-running team for as long as HC Mike Vrabel is in
charge, so being able to get that dimension from their quarterback
will be a bonus.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Tannehill has not been
the most durable player throughout his career, although 2022 was
the first time in three seasons he missed a game. Levis is close
enough to being NFL-ready now that he should overtake Malik Willis
in short order. Levis adds enough value with his legs that he
could be a matchup-based starter in any week Tannehill cannot
play, but it seems much more likely that Levis will not enjoy
any sustained fantasy value until 2024 - barring a serious injury
to Tannehill.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week for his overall ranking, but he will
be my QB4.
2.03 - TE Sam LaPorta, Lions
Team Fit:Shane Zylstra (three touchdowns in Week 16) and Brock Wright (two touchdowns in Week 17) serve as proof that Detroit
- and perhaps more specifically, Jared Goff - does not mind relying
on tight ends. LaPorta offers more than Zylstra or Wright do after
the catch, although he is similar to them in the sense that he
is more of a receiving tight end and average-at-best blocker.
LaPorta will likely start early as a rookie, although it should
not come as a surprise if he loses more snaps to Zylstra and/or
Wright than most expect.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? LaPorta landed in a good
offense in Detroit, but it is fair to wonder how many of the short-area
targets that will likely be his bread-and-butter in a Goff-led
offense will end up going to Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jahmyr Gibbs.
It seems highly unlikely he will enjoy any kind of regular weekly
fantasy value as a rookie.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: The trade of Darren Waller to the Giants and the departure
of Foster Moreau (illness) left Las Vegas with very little at
tight end, forcing the team to sign Austin Hooper and O.J. Howard
in free agency. With both players set to turn 29 during the season,
the Raiders added arguably the best combo tight end (blocking
and receiving) in the draft class. It is worth wondering how involved
Mayer will be in the passing game anytime soon, however, as he
will struggle to find targets after Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers,
Hunter Renfrow, Hooper and Josh Jacobs get theirs.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? With Hooper much more
of a receiving threat than a blocker, Mayer could stay in to block
much more than he probably should. Even if Mayer makes Hooper
obsolete by October, there are just too many mouths for Jimmy Garoppolo to feed to believe Mayer will be highly involved in
the passing game in 2023.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.08 - WR Jonathan Mingo, Panthers
Team Fit: Carolina was able to put a bit of a
Band-Aid on its receiving corps by adding DJ Chark and Adam Thielen
following the trade of D.J. Moore earlier in the spring. Unfortunately, Thielen may be hard-pressed to be anything more than a good mentor
after 2023 and Chark is still very much a work in progress despite
the team's hopes of him becoming a more complete receiver. Enter
Mingo, who is the latest in a line of freakish talents at receiver
from Ole Miss. At 6-2 and 220 pounds with 4.46 speed, Mingo is
a potential future X receiver that shares more in common with
A.J. Brown than an alma mater. Unless Terrace Marshall steps up
in a big and unexpected way in 2023, Mingo and Chark could see
a heavy dose of perimeter snaps with Bryce Young throwing the
ball and Thielen working mostly out of the slot.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? It would be unfair to
suggest Mingo is capable of leading the Panthers in receiving
in his rookie season after never doing so in college, but he has
a chance as the one big-bodied receiver on the roster. More than
likely, however, Mingo will have to settle for being more of a
splash player and low-end WR4 for fantasy purposes right away.
Carolina figures to take as much pressure off Young as possible
as a rookie, especially considering the team does not have a clear
alpha in the passing game yet.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.11 - TE Luke Musgrave, Packers
Team Fit: Musgrave finished with a mere 47 catches
over his four-year college career, but there is more to him than
meets the eye. The former three-star recruit is a highly impressive
athlete at 6-6 and 253 pounds; he is more than capable of stretching
the seam with his 4.61 speed. He joins a position group that would
have likely relied heavily on Josiah Deguara if the season started
before the draft. Green Bay is also hurting at receiver beyond
Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs, meaning Musgrave walks into
an offense that is just begging for at least one more worthy player
of attracting a high number of targets. Musgrave was poised to
break out in a big way at Oregon State in 2022 with 11 catches
through two games, but a knee injury in September ended his season
prematurely.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Musgrave profiles as
a seam-stretching tight end in a run-heavy, Jordan Love-led offense,
meaning we have almost no idea what to expect in 2023. Factor
in Musgrave's durability issues and all of the usual struggles
that rookie tight ends usually have and it is enough to ignore
him for fantasy purposes.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.19 - WR Jayden Reed, Packers
Team Fit: Just about everything said about Musgrave above applies
here as well. Green Bay is woefully thin at receiver even if we
assume Watson and Doubs will take the next step in their careers
in 2023. Reed is a bit of a Randall Cobb clone - a younger version
anyway - because he should be a very good slot option who can
hold his own on the outside and return punts. The Michigan State
product is also very good in contested-catch situations, especially
for a player who stands 5-11 with 30 1/2-inch arms and did not
set the world on fire athletically. He should have little trouble
beating out Samori Toure and begin the season as the Packers'
primary slot.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Because the Packers
drafted two Day 2 tight ends (more on that later), it calls into
question how much they will be using 11 personnel (three receivers)
and sets up the possibility Reed was drafted as much for his return
skills as his receiving skills. Either way, it is hard to imagine
a scenario in which Reed is a viable fantasy option in 2023 in
what should be a running back-focused offense - barring an injury
to Watson and/or Doubs.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back on the website next week.
Team Fit: While running back depth behind Kenneth Walker III was
definitely a concern entering the weekend, grabbing one in the
second round was probably unnecessary. Charbonnet was arguably
the third-best running back prospect in this draft and gives Seattle
the kind of physical back it has lacked since the moment Chris Carson retired. The 215-pounder is good enough, in fact, that
he will probably work in tandem with Walker moving forward. Walker
figures to remain the clear leader in the backfield, but it would
be an upset if Charbonnet is not handling roughly 10 touches per
game and playing more often in passing situations than Walker.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? The real question here
is how many snaps on passing downs Charbonnet will steal from
DeeJay Dallas or any other competition the team may add at the
position later. If the answer is somewhere in the neighborhood
of an even split, then Charbonnet could push for RB3/flex value.
Even if he falls short of that, the UCLA product will have significant
value as one of the most high-upside handcuffs available.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.24 - WR Rashee Rice, Chiefs
Team Fit: Perhaps the one thing the Kansas City wide receiver
group was missing entering the draft was a receiver capable of
consistently winning on contested catches. That is something Rice
did very well at SMU and will probably be the reason he forces
his way into the starting lineup at some point in 2023. It is
also possible Rice was drafted to play the same kind of role JuJu Smith-Schuster did in 2022. Kadarius Toney's starting spot is
safe as long as he can stay healthy and Marquez Valdes-Scantling's
contract should keep him involved, but the race for No. 3 duties
could be wide open if 2022 second-round pick Skyy Moore does not
take the next step.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Fantasy managers should
keep their eyes peeled on any developments this summer in Kansas
City. A bigger-bodied receiver such as Rice (6-1, 204) who could
earn the trust of Patrick Mahomes is worth investing in as early
as this season, even if he does not have a clear path to regular
playing time to begin the season. Consider Rice a WR5 for now,
albeit one with WR3 upside if he can force his way into the starting
lineup during the preseason.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.27 - TE Luke Schoonmaker, Cowboys
Team Fit: The hope here is that Schoonmaker eventually replaces
Dalton Schultz, who took a one-year deal from the Texans in March.
He does not give Dallas a significantly different skill-set than
the men he needs to beat out to start (Jake Ferguson and Peyton Hendershot), however. Schoonmaker's status as a second-round draft
choice may give him the edge if none of the three players separate
themselves this summer, but Ferguson will likely enter training
camp as the favorite to start.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? The Cowboys have more
at receiver than they did last year and supposedly want to run
the ball more often, which makes it possible that Dak Prescott
won't miss Schultz all that much. Even if Schoonmaker wins the
starting job, he will likely be the fifth-best option behind CeeDee Lamb, Brandin Cooks, Michael Gallup and Tony Pollard.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.30 - TE Brenton Strange, Jaguars
Team Fit: With Evan Engram likely to sign an extension sometime
this summer, Strange appears to be little more than a replacement
for the blocking role Chris Manhertz occupied last season.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
2.32 - WR Marvin Mims, Broncos
Team Fit: Using a second-round selection on Mims suggests Denver
may be willing to part with either Courtland Sutton or Jerry Jeudy
at some point this summer. Tim Patrick (ACL) is set to return
and is a more-than-capable third receiver who can also stretch
the field, which would appear to make Mims' skill set unnecessary.
With that said, new HC Sean Payton always seemed to have a field-stretching
speedster in the Devery Henderson/Robert Meacham mold during his
days in New Orleans. That appears to be what Payton & Co.
are going for here.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Assuming a trade does
not happen, Mims does not appear to have a chance at regular playing
time in 2023 unless Sutton, Jeudy or Patrick get hurt. Even if
one of them misses multiple games, Mims would be little more than
a TD-or-bust WR5 this season.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
3.05 - QB Hendon Hooker, Lions
Team Fit: Jared Goff carries a $31 million cap number into this
season and a $32 million cap number into 2024. While it could
be argued he justified his contract somewhat with his performance
last season, one look at his road splits suggests Detroit would
be wise to consider all of its options and, at the very least,
add competition. It is hard to predict just how much Hooker will
be able to prepare for this season as he continues to recover
from his torn ACL late last year, but his arrival does give the
Lions their first decent backup quarterback in years.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Even if Hooker ends up
being a full participant in training camp somehow, it seems unlikely
Goff will lose his job at any point this season for a team that
is expected to win the division. Fantasy managers can leave Hooker
on waivers.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back on the website next week for his overall ranking, but
he will be my QB5.
3.06 - WR Tank Dell, Texans
Team Fit: Houston can use all of the explosive playmakers it can
get its hands on, even if one of them is 5-8 and 165 pounds. Dell
may never be trusted to handle a full allotment of snaps at his
size, but he should give C.J. Stroud someone who can consistently
get open in the slot in two seconds or less. At the very least,
he should give the offense a much-needed jolt anytime he is in
the game and a decent slot option if John Metchie has any problems
returning to form.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Dell may be the most
exciting player Houston puts on the field at times in 2023, but
it seems unlikely he will get much regular work behind Nico Collins,
Robert Woods, Metchie and Dalton Schultz.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: New Orleans figures to be without Alvin Kamara for at
least part of the 2023 season due to a likely suspension. Jamaal Williams was added in free agency to serve as the hammer Mark Ingram used to be, but the Saints needed to add another back to
the mix at some point if only because Williams' running style
makes him an injury risk. However, Miller seems like a curious
fit in that he is more like Williams than Kamara and is mostly
unproven in the passing game. Perhaps this is more of a matter
of New Orleans viewing Miller as a potential lead back down the
road and having him graded considerably higher than any other
available player on the board at the time.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? There is no problem
with Miller's landing spot as the Saints should field a good offense
this year, but the possibility of a Williams-Miller backfield
for nearly half of the season is unlikely to keep defensive coordinators
up at night. If Kamara ends up missing significant time - enough
for New Orleans to give Miller the time to prove he is the superior
option - then Miller could/should pull away and become the lead
back. Assuming that happens, he has low-end RB2/high-end RB3 upside.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: New York may have fielded the worst receiving corps
in the league last year, especially once Wan'Dale Robinson (knee)
was lost for the season. Isaiah Hodgins thankfully emerged and
should have a firm grasp of one starting spot. After that, there
is Darius Slayton and a host of slot types such as Robinson and
Parris Campbell. Hyatt may also need to live in the slot, but
he addresses the one thing the Giants did not have last year at
receiver: raw speed. Perhaps no receiver in this draft class possesses
the explosiveness of Hyatt. The reason he lasted as long as he
did is that raw speed may be all he has: he is too lean (6-0,
176) to work inside very often and rarely ran anything outside
of screens and deep patterns in college.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Much as was the case
with DeSean Jackson for most of his career, Hyatt might end up
being a great start in fantasy when he gets behind the defense
and unpleasant to start if he didn't. There is a strong chance
Hyatt makes things easier for Saquon Barkley and ends up helping
Robinson and Hodgins more than anything else. He should be considered
a boom-or-bust WR5 at most for now.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: Cleveland appears to be set at receiver for now, although
Tillman is good enough to force his way into the lineup at some
point in 2023. Perhaps he was drafted more with an eye toward
2024 as Amari Cooper enters a second straight season with a $23.8
million cap number. For now, Tillman will bide his time behind
Cooper, Donovan Peoples-Jones and Elijah Moore.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Unfortunately for a talented
player like Tillman, it is hard to see a path where he can find
regular targets. Unless Cooper is traded at some point this offseason,
Tillman can be ignored in most redraft leagues.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
3.15 - TE Tucker Kraft, Packers
Team Fit: Kraft is cut from a similar cloth as Luke Musgrave,
so what was said above about him and his fit in Green Bay applies
here. Kraft profiles as the more likely of the two to block more
often, although this pick feels a bit like a way for the Packers
to cover themselves in case Musgrave continues to struggle with
his durability.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Kraft has a lot working
against him to be viable in fantasy in 2023. Not only will Green
Bay downgrade at quarterback from Aaron Rodgers to Jordan Love,
but the South Dakota State product also has the fact that the
Packers made him the second of two tight ends in the same draft
class working against him.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: GM Chris Ballard has long had a "type" at
receiver, but it appears new HC Shane Steichen has convinced him
to relax his standards in that regard. The Colts added another
short and slight receiver in Isaiah McKenzie to man the slot in
free agency but may have found a superior option in the draft
with Downs. Not only is Downs almost every bit as quick as McKenzie,
but he proved to be a very effective contested-catch receiver
in college despite being 5-9 and 171 pounds. Downs is almost certain
to live in the slot in Indy with Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce operating on the perimeter.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Given the likelihood
that the Colts will be a run-heavy team once again with Jonathan Taylor and (likely at some point in 2023) Anthony Richardson,
Downs will likely have to settle for a part-time slot and field-stretcher
role unless Pittman or Pierce get hurt.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: As long as Derrick Henry stays healthy, it probably
does not matter who or what is behind him on the depth chart.
With that said, Spears is probably just what the doctor ordered
in terms of taking some touches off King Henry's plate - assuming
the Titans actually have any interest in doing that. Tennessee
attempted to do a similar thing a few years ago with Darrynton Evans, but he played a mere six games for the team due to injury
and was let go less than two years after being a third-round pick.
Spears enters the league with injury concerns (tore the ACL in
the same knee twice over the last four years), but he is much
more of a worthy backup than Evans ever could have been - one
capable of handling feature-back duties if/when Henry is unable
to do so. Considering how little action Hassan Haskins saw in
2022, it seems likely Spears will get every opportunity to be
the clear backup to Henry.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Assuming Spears beats
out Haskins in camp, the former should be considered a high-end
handcuff. Even if Henry stays healthy, there is a good chance
Spears will still be worth rostering in most leagues as a RB5.
How long that will be the case may depend on how true the pre-draft
reports about his knee were.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: Miami decided to bring back Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson on two-year deals earlier this spring, but moving on from
either one will not cost the Dolphins very much after this year.
It is noteworthy that Mostert is already 31 years old. While Achane
does not have the size (188 pounds) to take over the backfield
entirely, his 4.32 speed fits right into the track team HC Mike
McDaniel & Co. are trying to assemble in Miami. The beauty
of Achane is that he runs well inside despite his size and offers
big-play potential, making him a natural replacement for Mostert
if he gets hurt.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? Achane could end up
being a significant factor right away, although it is within the
range of outcomes that the Dolphins could cap him at 10 non-red
zone touches per game. He offers the most pass-catching upside
of any of the Miami running backs, however, so he could be worth
playing in games in which the Dolphins are expected to be playing
from behind. That is enough to peg him as a RB5 with upside.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Team Fit: Jacksonville had Travis
Etienne and little else in its backfield by the end of last
season. The team has added D'Ernest
Johnson, brought back JaMycal
Hasty and spent a Day 2 pick on Bigsby in the months since.
Etienne is locked into his starting job, but HC Doug Pederson may
have decided that the former first-round pick needed a powerful
complement after he only scored twice on 10 carries inside the 5.
While Bigsby should theoretically be the favorite for backup duties
given his status as a third-round pick, Johnson proved himself every
time he had the chance in Cleveland. The possibility exists that
Etienne will be the clear lead back in Jacksonville but work in
tandem with Johnson and Bigsby all over the field, including near
the goal line.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? It should not be assumed
that Bigsby will simply make Johnson obsolete. On the off chance
he does, there is a strong possibility he serves as Etienne's
physical complement. Fantasy managers will likely need to keep
an eye on training camp and the preseason to figure out if Bigsby
is worth a shot as a late-round handcuff or mid-round quasi-committee
back. There is RB4 potential here, assuming he beats out Johnson.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
3.31 - WR Michael Wilson, Cardinals
Team Fit: In large part due to a COVID season and consecutive
seasons with major injuries to close out his college career, it
took a good showing at the Senior Bowl practices to convince a
team to spend a third-round pick on a player who may have otherwise
had second-round upside. Unfortunately, Wilson's immediate landing
spot puts him in an offense that still surprisingly has DeAndre Hopkins and Marquise Brown on the outside, Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch on the inside, an injured Kyler Murray, Zach Ertz and Trey McBride. A Hopkins trade would create some space for the 6-2 and
213-pound Wilson, but there are still more than enough mouths
to feed even if that happens.
What does it mean in redraft (12 teams)? The first step for Wilson
is to do whatever it takes to remain healthy. Even if Hopkins
is traded as expected, it seems unrealistic that he would produce
all that much with Colt McCoy and/or Clayton Tune under center
and the plethora of aforementioned talented pass-catchers. Wilson
can be ignored in redraft for now.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
on the website next week.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive". Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
