* - How well does his skill set carry over
to the fantasy game? For receivers, a player needs to be a realistic
threat for 70 catches and 1,000 receiving yards at some point
early in their career to be a candidate for a perfect grade. Positional
scarcity at the pro level is also a part of the equation.
Positives
Smaller receivers often need to rely on quickness and craftiness
to make a living in the NFL. Downs offers both and a lot more. The
former top-100 recruit was able to get open against just about any
cornerback in college, using the defender's leverage and his ability
to adjust his tempo to create separation. His biggest weapon, however,
may be how seamlessly he can sink his hips and accelerate out of
his transitions. Also working in his favor is how infrequently defensive
backs can get a jump on where he is going because he does not telegraph
his routes. For a receiver with somewhat small hands, Downs is an
extremely confident and competent hands-catcher. One area in which
this shows up the most is the surprising regularity with which he
wins in contested-catch situations. (Per Pro Football Focus, his
13 contested catches in 2022 were tied for 23rd in the country.
He also won more than 72 percent of his contested-catch targets!)
To that end, Downs was a surprisingly productive red zone target
for North Carolina, scoring nine of his 11 touchdowns last season
inside the 20 - including four inside the 10. He should also be
a dependable zone-buster from the day he puts on an NFL uniform,
as he displayed great spatial awareness with the Tar Heels.
Negatives
The ability to play - and thrive - in space is more important
than size in today's NFL, but the deck is still stacked against
receivers that measure in at 5-9 and 171 pounds. Forget for a second
that he could be destined to be a part-time player because he may
never be capable of being a serviceable run-blocker, but he will
almost certainly be limited to slot work. (He lined up outside on
only 136 of 736 offensive snaps in 2022 and rarely encountered any
kind of potential disruption in his routes.) It is also extremely
rare for a player of his size to enjoy the kind of success in contested-catch
situations in the NFL that he did in college. Downs' speed is not
an issue per se, but it is far from ideal. At the very least, coaches
would prefer a receiver with his size limitations to be able to
stretch the field. His timed speed makes that a bit of a dicey proposition
in the NFL. Downs also went from being one of the best yard-after-catch
receivers in 2021 (third in the country with 754 YAC yards; 7.5
yards after contact on 101 catches) to one of the least effective
(51st; 375 YAC yards, 4.0, 94 catches). Considering he was able
to elude defenders so easily in 2021, did the lower-body injury
that caused him to miss three games early in the season bother him
throughout 2022?
Bottom Line
Downs should be a consistent producer in the NFL, but it will
be critical for his next play-caller to feature him on change-of-direction
routes. Time after time, it appears as if he can get open anytime
he wants on a whip or pivot route. Assuming Downs' early-season
injury sapped him of some of his playmaking ability for a few
games and that he is more of the player we saw in 2021 - his four
biggest YAC efforts came over the final six games - then evaluators
can dream of potentially landing the next Doug Baldwin.
Not every team is going to be open to the idea of ignoring the
prototypical size and strength an NFL receiver theoretically should
have, especially when he does not have blazing speed. It seems
unlikely that Downs will be able to survive - much less thrive
- as a perimeter receiver. What Downs should be able to do from
the first day he steps on the field, however, is move the chains.
If his new team has the luxury of sticking him in the slot on
75 percent of his snaps and letting him do his thing on option
routes, he will very much be worth a Day 2 selection. That is
probably where his contested-catch ability would shine the most
as well.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM’s
“Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
