While Pickens has been the most obvious beneficiary of the switch
from Justin Fields to Russell Wilson, Warren’s numbers have ticked
up noticeably as well. In four games since the quarterback change,
Warren is averaging 13.5 touches for 70 yards. He still hasn’t
found the end zone this season, but if he continues seeing that
level of usage it should be just a matter of time. Perhaps it’ll
happen this week. Coming off a physical battle with the Ravens
on Sunday, the Steelers could look to lean on their backs to possess
the ball and keep their own defense on the sidelines. Cleveland
ranks 24th against the run this year (131.7 yards per game), and
they were absolutely steamrolled by the Saints in Week 11, giving
up 214 yards and 3 TDs on 28 attempts (7.6 YPC). You could use
Warren as a flex or RB3 on Thursday night.
Statistically, Wilson endured his worst game of the season versus
Baltimore, which was a disappointment considering the Ravens rank
last in the NFL against the pass. He ended the day with 205 yards,
0 TDs, and 1 INT, as the Steelers settled for six field goals.
The Browns have been a disappointment this year, no doubt. They
still have some high-level talent along the defensive front, though,
and you’d expect Pittsburgh to prioritize ball security
with an opponent that likely needs to force takeaways to compete.
Don’t be surprised if Wilson looks like more of a game manager
this week, leaving him well outside of QB1 territory.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
The insertion of Jameis Winston into the starting lineup has
been a revelation for the Browns passing attack, at least in terms
of volume. While all three top wideouts have seen their numbers
spike, we’ll focus on Tillman and Jeudy here as Elijah Moore is
primarily an underneath target. Jeudy, acquired during the offseason
from Denver, has finally started to look like an impact player,
racking up 18 receptions (on 30 targets) for 294 yards and a touchdown.
Meanwhile, Tillman has 16 grabs (on 28 targets), 221 yards, and
three TDs. That duo is going to be needed if the Browns have any
hope of taking down the Steelers on Thursday night. Pittsburgh
is one of the NFL’s top run defenses, so through the air is the
way to go after them. That makes Jeudy a possible WR2 this week
with Tillman checking in as a WR3/flex.
In three starts, Winston is averaging 321 yards, 2 TDs, and 1
INT. That only tells part of the story, though, as he’s played
one excellent game (versus Baltimore in Week 8), one atrocious
game (versus the Chargers in Week 9 when he took six sacks and
turned the ball over three times), and one mediocre game (versus
the Saints last week). It’s all on the table. As noted, the Steelers
are tough to run on, so Cleveland will need Winston to move the
offense with his arm. That doesn’t mean it’ll be easy. Pittsburgh
ranks 18th against the pass but is one of only five teams with
more INTs than TD passes allowed. That could spell trouble for
Winston, who won’t shy away from trying to make plays no matter
what the score is. He has QB1 upside alongside significant risk.
Chubb’s return from a gruesome knee injury is a feel-good
story. For fantasy owners, though, the numbers have failed to
impress. Through four games, he’s averaging just over 40
yards per game and an unsightly 3.1 yards per carry. How you want
to divvy up blame is up to you, but the bottom line is Chubb hasn’t
looked anything like the guy that averaged better than 5.0 yards
per carry in each of his six seasons. Chubb is unlikely to get
things going against the Steelers, either, with Pittsburgh allowing
the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game (90.8) in the NFL. Maybe
you could talk yourself into sliding Chubb into your flex slot,
but even that has an air of optimism.
Mike Evans looks set to make his return to the lineup here in
Week 12, following a three-game absence due to a hamstring injury.
There’s no guarantee that Evans will be active so fantasy managers
will need to keep an eye on the practice reports and the game-day
inactive list, but assuming he’ll be back, Evans should return
to a role as the unquestioned WR1 in Tampa. While Evans was his
usual boom-or-bust self early in the year, he was competing with
teammate Chris Godwin for targets, and that made things much more
difficult to predict. With Godwin now out of the picture, Evans’
only real competition for targets comes in the form of tight ends
and running backs, and those low-depth-of-target passes would
rarely be headed in Evans’ direction in the first place. This
could be a situation where the Bucs want to play it slow with
Evans to not reaggravate his injury, but they also can’t afford
to take an in-conference loss to a bad team as they attempt to
push for the playoffs, so expect Evans to be involved early and
often enough to return WR2 numbers here in Week 12.
Tight end Cade Otton has been an excellent source of fantasy
points as of late, in large part due to the absence of both Mike
Evans and Chris Godwin. Otton has made the most of his opportunities,
converting 30 of the 39 passes that’ve come his way for
293 yards and three scores over just his past four games. He did
have a bit of a down week against the 49ers the last time we saw
as he produced just 35 yards on five receptions, but the eight
targets he saw are still extremely high for a tight end and a
number that fantasy managers will want to keep an eye on now that
Evans is expected back in the lineup. Even assuming that Otton
does revert to being a secondary option in the Tampa Bay passing
attack, though, he’s still likely to see a higher target
share than most other tight ends given the lack of downfield weapons
that the Buccaneers have at the moment. This opportunity share
makes Otton a solid mid-to-low-end TE1 with high-end TE1 upside
if he continues to convert near the goal line.
Bucky Irving has emerged as a valuable contributor in the Tampa
Bay backfield, steadily taking on the role of the primary ball
carrier. His recent performance against the 49ers showcased his
efficiency, as he turned 13 carries into 73 yards and a touchdown.
This marked his third rushing touchdown in the past five games,
solidifying his role as the go-to option on the ground for the
Buccaneers.
Although Rachaad White remains the preferred back in passing
situations, Irving has shown competence as a receiver, catching
18 passes during this same five-game stretch. This dual-threat
capability makes him a well-rounded fantasy option, particularly
in games where Tampa Bay is expected to control the pace and scoreboard.
Against a more favorable matchup, Irving projects as a solid
RB2 with upside, especially in non-PPR leagues where his rushing
production carries more weight. His combination of recent success,
touchdown potential, and likely workload makes him a strong play
this week in most formats.
Rachaad White has remained a fantasy-relevant asset, especially
in PPR formats, due to his proficiency as a pass-catcher. Over
the Buccaneers' last four games before their bye week, White hauled
in 20 passes, three of which resulted in touchdowns. However,
Tampa Bay's four-game losing streak created game scripts that
favored his skill set, as the team often needed to play from behind.
Heading into their Week 12 matchup against a struggling Giants
team, the Bucs are road favorites. This likely positive game script
could lead to a greater reliance on Irving in the ground game,
potentially reducing White's opportunities. Still, White’s
ability to contribute as a receiver and his occasional usage near
the goal line gives him a relatively safe floor, particularly
in PPR leagues.
For this week, White projects as a flex option in standard leagues
and a low-end RB2 in PPR formats. While he may still reach low-double-digit
fantasy points through a combination of receptions and a handful
of carries, his overall ceiling appears capped in a matchup where
Irving is more likely to thrive.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Tyrone Tracy’s stranglehold on the Giants’ backfield
opportunities continues to make him a high-floor option who also
has some upside to provide RB1 weeks. Tracy played on a season-high
80 percent of the Giants’ offensive snaps in their most
recent game, rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown on 18 carries.
It was Tracy’s third 100-yard rushing performance in his
past six games, and it made the fifth time he’s seen at
least 16 carries over that stretch.
This type of workload is typically enough for a back to be a
fairly solidified RB1 for fantasy, but the unfortunate reality
is that Tracy has been working within one of the league’s worst
offenses. There’s some hope for optimism now that the Giants have
moved on from Daniel Jones, but we’ve also seen Tommy DeVito before
and the offense was still pretty awful with him behind center,
so fantasy managers would be wise to not exaggerate the effects
of the quarterback change at least when it comes to the running
game. Tracy will almost certainly continue to be sparingly used
in the passing game and the Giants offense is too weak to give
him many touchdown opportunities, so he’s not a high-ceiling player
even if he is a must-start RB2 for most teams.
Malik Nabers’ red-hot start to the season has certainly
cooled down since he returned from injury back in Week 7. While
Nabers has managed to put together three double-digit PPR performances
in the four games since coming back, he’s yet to reach even
15 points during this stretch despite continuing to see an elite
target share. This has meant that Nabers has been more of a WR2/3
than the locked-in WR1 that we saw early on this season.
While there are certainly on-field consequences to the Giants
moving on from Daniel Jones, the move to Tommy DeVito at quarterback
is almost certainly more of a business decision for the Giants
as it limits the team’s potential financial liabilities
if Jones were to get hurt. For fantasy managers, what we’re
hoping for is that DeVito will continue where Jones left off in
funneling targets to his top widow receiver. Even if the targets
are not particularly accurate as they were not with Jones at QB,
the raw number of opportunities made Nabers a weekly fantasy starter.
This placement of Nabers as an “On the fence” option
is not an assertion that managers should be benching him here
in Week 12, but rather that we need to temper our expectations
with DeVito behind center. It would be almost impossible for Nabers
to see an increased target share from what he had been getting,
and the targets aren’t likely to be significantly more accurate,
so there’s some potential downside here especially in DeVito’s
first game at QB here in 2024.
While the focus from fantasy managers will likely be on Malik
Nabers and Tyrone Tracy, the other player who will likely be most
affected by the Giants’ quarterback change is wide receiver
Wan’Dale Robinson. Unlike the rookie Nabers, Robinson played
with DeVito in 2023 and probably could be considered the team’s
top pass-catching option during that seven-game run where DeVito
was the Giants’ top quarterback.
Unfortunately, we just did not see much out of Robinson in those
games. Robinson caught four or fewer passes and did not exceed
35 receiving yards in six of the seven games he played with DeVito.
The one exception was a Week 13 contest with the Packers when
he caught six passes for 79 yards. Worse yet, Robinson scored
just once during that entire stretch.
We can make a case that Robinson is better suited to play the
“WR2” role in an offense than he was to be the WR1,
but the truth is that there just isn’t likely to be enough
volume for Robinson to be a difference-maker down the stretch
this season. DeVito attempted 27 or fewer passes in all but one
game he started for the Giants in 2023, he reached 200 yards just
once, and there’s no reason to believe that New York is
suddenly going to give him more opportunities this season. The
low volume potential makes Robinson a deep league PPR option only
and he can probably even be dropped in many formats.
Lions vs. Colts features a 50.5-point total with an implied team
total of 29.0 points for Detroit. Both of these numbers are the
highest on the slate this week. All of this means you should be
excited to start any Detroit Lion this week.
Looking at Jared Goff, the Colts have been a top-10 matchup for
quarterbacks this season. This defense has been bottom-10 in passing
yards per game and yards per pass play. Six quarterbacks have
thrown for 275-plus yards against Indianapolis and Goff could
easily be the next. The only thing that might hold Goff back is
too many of the Lions’ touchdowns coming on the ground.
Even with these concerns, Goff belongs in lineups with this matchup.
Moving on to Jameson Williams, the Colts’ defensive struggles
through the air also apply to wide receivers. The Colts have specifically
struggled to contain outside receivers like Williams; they allow
the 7th-most receiving yards per game to receivers lined up on
the outside. They’ve also had a hard time preventing the
deep ball. The Colts rank inside the top five in terms of receptions
and yards allowed on targets 20-plus yards downfield. Given Williams’
vertical skillset, he could be in for a big day against this defense.
Finally, we’ve reached Sam LaPorta. Frankly, much of what
LaPorta has done this year would lead to fantasy managers wanting
to keep him on the bench. He’s cleared 15 PPR points just
twice and has four games with a single-digit target share. However,
with the Lions’ lofty team total and the lack of options
at tight end, especially this week with six teams on bye, LaPorta
is certainly a top-12 option against the Colts.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
The Anthony Richardson truthers are certainly taking a victory
lap after he looked great in his return last week. Richardson
completed 67 percent of his passes, eclipsed 300 total yards,
and accounted for three touchdowns, two of which came on the ground.
The most encouraging stat from this game was that he saw 10 designed
rushes, the most for any quarterback in a single game this season.
Given the quality of the Lions’ offense, Richardson is
likely going to be pushing the ball deep and scrambling all over
the place in order to generate explosive plays and keep the Colts
in the game. Richardson is a high-ceiling, low-floor option, but
it’s best to chase that ceiling in what should be an offensive-minded
matchup.
At this point, it’s become quite clear that Josh Downs
is the Colts’ No.1 receiver. He’s quickly emerged
as one of the league’s premier target earners. In fact,
his 0.32 targets per route run ranks 4th among all receivers (min.
100 routes). His ability to draw targets at such a high rate makes
him an incredibly valuable player in PPR leagues.
The Lions also offer a matchup where Downs will likely be peppered
with targets. Detroit’s defense leads the league in targets,
receptions, and yards allowed to slot receivers. Downs, who’s
run 84 percent of his routes from the slot, will heavily benefit
from this matchup and is a strong WR2 this week.
The rise of Downs has come at the expense of Michael Pittman
Jr. Last year’s WR13 has failed to score 10 PPR points in
four straight games and is the per-game WR60 on the season. What’s
even more concerning is that he has not accounted for 25 percent
of the targets in a single game since Week 2. Unless we see a
dramatic turnaround in his target-earning metrics and overall
production, he can’t be trusted in lineups
The return of Tyjae Spears has not been kind to Tony Pollard.
In-game injuries to both backs have altered overall snap shares,
but when the duo has both been in action over the last two weeks,
this has been nearly a 50-50 split. With a reduced workload, Pollard
has weekly finishes of RB23 and RB39.
Luckily for Pollard managers, he seems to be in line for a workhorse
role in Week 12. Spears is in concussion protocol and following
DNPs on Wednesday and Thursday, he is on track to miss Sunday’s
game. When Spears was sidelined from Weeks 7-9, Pollard held an
84-percent snap share and an 83-percent opportunity share. This
is about as elite of a workload as they come for fantasy purposes.
If Spears is unable to play, Pollard is a volume-based RB2 and
is a must-start on the majority of rosters.
On the other end of the spectrum, the departure of DeAndre Hopkins
has worked wonders for the fantasy value of Calvin Ridley. Since
the Hopkins trade four weeks ago, Ridley has accounted for 30
percent of the team’s targets. He has two top-5 finishes in these
four games. Ridley’s 16.7-yard aDOT and lack of stable quarterback
play make his production rather volatile. He may have two top-5
finishes in the last month, but he’s finished as the WR30 and
WR41 in the other two games during this stretch. Even still, his
consistent usage and high-value looks make him a strong option
this week.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
C.J. Stroud and Tank Dell have arguably been two of fantasy’s
biggest disappointments this season. Dell comes in as the per-game
WR46 while Stroud is the QB25. At this point, both of these players
require premium matchups to consider starting them. Unfortunately,
the Titans do not offer a matchup where fantasy managers should
be thrilled to start either Stroud or Dell.
When it comes to Stroud, this is a middle-of-the-pack matchup
in terms of the Titans’ fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks.
From an efficiency perspective, the Tennessee defense ranks 4th
in yards allowed per pass play. Across the full season, Josh Allen
is the only quarterback to eclipse 250 passing yards and throw
for multiple touchdowns against this defense. Altogether, the
signs are not pointing to Stroud having a bounce-back week.
Tank Dell is in a similar boat. Tennessee’s effectiveness
against the pass applies to him as well; the Titans rank 29th
in fantasy points allowed to wide receivers. Considering he’s
a clear second fiddle behind Collins through the air and the No.3
offensive option behind Joe Mixon, Dell should remain on benches
in Week 12
The Patriots’ offense has certainly been more exciting with Drake
Maye behind center and the pass catchers have benefited significantly
from that, but another player who’s seen some increase in his
fantasy value has been running back Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson
missed Week 6 and was eased back into the lineup in Week 7, but
has since seen a heavy workload over his past four games. Stevenson
has carried the ball 70 times over the past four weeks, adding
13 catches in the passing game, and he’s scored four touchdowns
as well. His per-carry efficiency remains sub-par, but the Patriots
have shown no signs of backing away from utilizing him heavily
in every game, regardless of the game script. The Patriots' offense
isn’t good enough for Stevenson to be a true high-end RB1 even
with this volume, but he has provided an excellent floor while
also giving some low-end RB1/high-end RB2 numbers.
Stevenson now faces a Miami defense that has been a top-10 matchup
for opposing running backs this season. While they’ve yet
to give up a 100-yard rusher this season, Stevenson himself had
one of his most efficient games of the season against them back
in Week 5 when he rushed 12 times for 89 yards and a touchdown
and added four receptions as well. With Miami still looking to
find their groove on offense, this projects to be a competitive
game where the Patriots can continue to feed Stevenson touches
all afternoon.
This past week’s game against the Rams saw quarterback
Drake Maye deliver his highest passing yardage output thus far
as he completed 30-of-40 pass attempts for 282 yards and two touchdowns.
He also continues to provide a nice rushing floor as he added
27 yards on the ground. Maye has now rushed for at least 24 yards
in all but one of his starts and he’s thrown at least one
touchdown in every game he’s started except in Week 8 when
he was knocked out of the game early against the Jets - and he
still managed to make fantasy managers happy by rushing for a
touchdown before the injury. The Patriots lack the offensive weaponry
for Maye to be a high-end QB1 for fantasy, but he’s been
a decent QB2 or bye-week fill-in since taking over for Jacoby
Brissett. There is some worry this week as he faces a Miami defense
that has allowed the fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks
so far in 2024. They have, however, struggled as of late as they’ve
given up an average of nearly 280 passing yards per game over
their past four contests.
Tight end Hunter Henry is the only New England pass catcher who
fantasy managers can feel okay about starting in normal formats
and even that is shaky. Henry has scored just one touchdown this
season and touchdowns have usually been what has made him a viable
fantasy option throughout his career. Henry has been utilized
fairly heavily in the Patriots’ passing game as of late,
though, as he’s been targeted an average of 7.2 times per
game over his past five contests. He’s a low-upside option,
but there are a lot of normal tight end starters on byes this
week so Henry may be a decent pick-up off the waiver wire.
Fade: Patriots WRs
The Patriots' wide receivers have looked better with Drake Maye
at quarterback than they did with Jacoby Brissett, but there still
just isn’t enough volume for any of them to be trustworthy fantasy
assets right now. This past week we saw Kendrick
Bourne have his best game of the season as he caught five
passes for 70 yards and his first touchdown of the year, but he
hadn’t put together a single other usable fantasy game this season.
Meanwhile, players like Demario
Douglas and Kayshon
Boutte continue to see between six to 10 targets most weeks,
but neither player has converted that into any sort of useful
fantasy production. With no locked-in top target identified in
the passing game, this is a unit to avoid in anything other than
extremely deep PPR formats.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
De’Von Achane continues to put up big numbers in the Miami
offense both as a runner and as a pass-catcher, making him a must-start
fantasy option here in Week 12. The Patriots' defense isn’t
particularly bad or good against opposing backs, but Achane has
been seeing the type of volume that we had hoped to see heading
into the season and he’s delivering high-end spike weeks
combined with decent floor performances since returning from his
injury back in Week 7.
The Dolphins’ passing game continues to be a difficult
one to rely on as Tua Tagovailoa has been spreading the ball around
much more than we’ve become accustomed to. Tua himself has
been fine as a mid-to-high-end QB2 for the most part, but even
his superstar wide receiver Tyreek Hill hasn’t seen the
type of volume that has made him a game-breaker for fantasy throughout
his career.
Hill has averaged just 6.5 targets per game since Tua has been
back and while his fantasy numbers have seen a bump, it hasn’t
been producing anywhere close to the first-round fantasy pick
that he was drafted to be. Hill has scraped together two touchdowns
over his past two weeks so there’s still some hope that
things will get better, but he has a tough matchup against Patriots’
cornerback Christian Gonzalez this week and that’s enough
for him to be a concerning “WR1” this week.
Tight end Jonnu Smith has come alive this season, and particularly
as of late as he has now averaged 6.5 targets per game over his
past six games. This past week he saw his best performance of
the season as he converted six of the eight passes that came his
way for 101 yards and two touchdowns. Smith also had a solid performance
the last time these two teams met as he caught five passes for
62 yards on eight targets. The tight end position has been extremely
difficult to predict throughout the league this season and Smith
may drop a dud, but he’s not a bad option, especially on
a week with so many tight ends on byes.
What more is there to say at this point other than that this
is a lost season for wide receiver Jaylen Waddle? Waddle has now
failed to reach even 10 fantasy points in nine straight games.
There was some hope that Tua’s return would breathe life
back into his fantasy season, but at this point, we can safely
assume that Waddle is not a priority in the Miami offense and
fantasy managers can feel free to drop him if there are other
options that provide more upside on the waiver wire.
Make no mistake about it - this Cowboys offense is dreadful.
That alone makes trusting any player within it a dangerous proposition
for fantasy managers. However, there’s a long history of teams
- even ones with terrible offenses - still getting their superstar
wide receivers involved enough to be viable for fantasy purposes.
We’ve now seen that in two straight weeks for CeeDee Lamb, who
has been targeted 22 times in two blowout losses without Dak Prescott
at QB.
We do need a bit of context here as the first game saw Lamb catch
six of the 10 passes that came his way for just 21 yards, so that
wasn’t enough to save him from a bad fantasy day, but the 10 targets
on just 29 total pass attempts from the team is a huge share that
shouldn’t be overlooked. Then this past week, Lamb got back to
being a near-WR1 when he was targeted 12 times, catching eight
of those passes for 93 yards. While the raw numbers were better,
Lamb saw a dip in his share of the total targets from the team
as Cooper Rush attempted a whopping 55 passes. Still, even 12
targets on 55 attempts is nearly a 22-percent target share and
that goes to show that the Cowboys have continued to make it a
priority to get him the ball even in games where they’re way behind
on the scoreboard.
Lamb’s WR1 overall upside is almost certainly gone at this point,
but he should continue to see enough opportunities to remain a
must-start for fantasy purposes. It is worth noting, though, that
the Washington secondary has been one of the best at keeping opposing
WRs out of the end zone as of late. They’ve given up just two
touchdowns - both to Steelers wide receivers in Week 10 - to opposing
wide receivers over their past seven games. That includes shutting
out players like A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, Malik Nabers, Diontae
Johnson, Amari Cooper, Zay Flowers, and the Bears’ WR trio.
There’s not much to like in the Dallas offense right now outside
of CeeDee Lamb, but if there’s one other player who at least presents
some hope for fantasy managers, it has to be running back Rico
Dowdle. Dowdle has taken over the Dallas backfield over the past
three weeks, dominating the snaps when compared to the other backs,
and he has touched the ball at least 12 times in all three of
those games. While he hasn’t been overly effective with his opportunities,
we’re grasping at straws to find anything useful from the Cowboys
at this point and Dowdle at least presents the weekly potential
for a high-touch game. Dowdle is far from a Saquon Barkley-level
talent, but it is worth noting that Barkley did compile nearly
200 total yards while scoring a pair of touchdowns against this
Washington defense in Week 11.
Fade: All other Cowboys
Unless the Cowboys find some untapped magic then there’s almost
no hope for any other player in this offense to be a weekly fantasy
contributor. Even in a game this past week where Cooper
Rush attempted 55 passes, the rest of the team just was not
useful for fantasy purposes. The only player who did anything
noteworthy was tight end Luke
Schoonmaker who managed to see 10 targets, converting six
of them for 56 yards, almost all of which came after starter Jake
Ferguson was knocked out of the game with a concussion. While
it appears that Ferguson may miss this week’s contest, Schoonmaker
remains a player who fantasy managers will probably not want to
trust. He had just 11 total targets on the season before Week
11 and this offense is not good enough for managers to be relying
on pass-catchers not named CeeDee Lamb.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Robinson returned to the lineup this past week and immediately
got back to being a solid fantasy option as he carried the ball
16 times for 63 yards and a touchdown. This was particularly impressive
as the Commanders lost this road game to the Eagles, which highlights
his potential even when the Commanders aren’t in a positive
game script.
Now the Commanders have a much better outlook as they face a
Cowboys team that has been destroyed by their opponents over the
past few weeks. Dallas has given up the third-most fantasy points
per game to opposing running backs this season, but things have
been particularly ugly as of late. This past week it was Joe Mixon
who rushed for 109 yards and three touchdowns against them.
The Commanders are big home favorites in this one and that script
should benefit Robinson’s play style, so this looks like
a real opportunity for him to deliver not just an RB2 performance
like we’ve become accustomed to, but even possibly high-end
RB1 numbers.
Veteran running back Austin Ekeler saw his usage and fantasy
numbers spike when Robinson was out with an injury, but there
was some concern that he’d fall back to Earth in Week 11
when Robinson made his return. Those concerns turned out to be
valid as Ekeler saw his carries drop from 11 in Week 9 and 13
in Week 10, down to just two carries this past week. That would
normally be disastrous for fantasy, but Ekeler’s skill set
allowed him to make up for the lack of running game usage by catching
eight passes for 89 yards. Ekeler continues to dominate the passing
game usage for the Commanders and while eight receptions is a
rare exception, he’s certainly a player who has provided
a solid PPR floor for fantasy managers this season. The concern
with Ekeler, with this game in particular, is that the Commanders
are big favorites in this game against the Cowboys, which could
limit Ekeler’s usage. We know that the Commanders prefer
to use Robinson in the running game and Ekeler in the passing
game, so if the Commanders get ahead by multiple scores then this
could quickly lead to a low-touch game for the veteran.
Wide receiver Terry McLaurin has fantasy managers in a similar
conundrum to Ekeler. A potential Commanders’ blowout victory
could mean a much lower passing game volume than usual, which
would limit his already low upside. McLaurin has been a consistent
WR2 option, but he’s only reached the 20-point PPR mark
twice this season and this past week we saw him targeted just
twice - his lowest mark of the season - and he subsequently turned
in his worst fantasy performance. We should expect that McLaurin
is going to see more volume than that in just about any game,
but the reality is that the Commanders don’t attempt a ton
of passes in most games and that’s kept McLaurin to fewer
than 10 targets in all but one game this season. Making matters
even more concerning is that he’s only seen 11 total targets
over his past three games. That’d be a fine number if it
was one game, but a three-game stretch with that low volume just
is not enough for fantasy managers to feel confident in McLaurin
this week, especially in a game where the Commanders may throw
the ball even less than usual. McLaurin is more of a borderline
WR2/3 this week.
Zach Ertz was a hit as a bye-week fill-in this past week as he
scored a season-high in fantasy points in the Commanders’ loss
to the Eagles. Ertz caught six passes for 47 yards on seven targets
and made his second touchdown reception of the season. Normally
this would mean that a player would be a strong start going into
the next game, but fantasy managers would be wise to be skeptical
of the veteran in this particular matchup. Not only is this likely
to be a low passing volume game for the Commanders, but the Cowboys
have been good against opposing tight ends this season. San Francisco’s
George Kittle is the only tight end who has reached even 50 yards
against the Cowboys and that includes players like David Njoku,
Taysom Hill, Sam LaPorta, Kyle Pitts, Dallas Goedert, Dalton Schultz,
Pat Freiermuth, and the Ravens’ duo of Mark Andrews and Isaiah
Likely. Ertz has been fairly good as of late, but he’s a low-upside
option to begin with and this looks like a particularly difficult
matchup for him.
In three games since returning from last year’s torn ACL, Hockenson
has had a pair of nondescript performances sandwiched around an
8-72-0 outing versus Jacksonville. That’s not surprising. It was
always going to be starts and stops following such a long layoff
while also working with a new quarterback. Now a month in, perhaps
he’s ready to assume a larger role more consistently. He had a
pair of nearly identical statistical showings versus Chicago last
year, going 6-50-0 in the first game and 5-50-1 in the rematch.
This year’s Bears rank ninth in pass defense and have more INTs
(9) than TD passes allowed (7). The guess here is that Hockenson
presents himself as a nice intermediate target for Sam Darnold,
as well as a big body in the red zone. He carries enough potential
to be slotted into your starting lineup.
Throughout his career with the Packers, Jones was always paired
with a capable RB2 and rarely asked to carry a full load. Minnesota
eschewed that approach, leaning heavily on Jones early on to positive
results. His effectiveness has dipped over the last month, though,
and it has led to Akers logging a combined 40 touches in the past
three games. Expect that approach to continue here against a Bears
defense that has had far more issues stopping the run (130.3 yards/game;
23rd) than the pass in 2024. While Akers is a couple of seasons
removed from his best days with the Rams, he’s still young
(25) and capable. He could be used as a flex with upside versus
Chicago.
After tossing five interceptions in Weeks 9 and 10 combined,
Darnold reined things in last Sunday, passing for 246 yards and
2 TDs without a turnover. While that was a step in the right direction,
it’s been the exception more than the rule recently, and
you know the Bears are going to be hunting for takeaway possibilities.
Just based on what we’ve seen from both teams this year,
the smart approach seems to be for Minnesota to lean on the combo
of Jones and Akers while sprinkling in Darnold as needed. That
can be a winning game plan, but it may not lead to much fantasy
value for Darnold. This feels like a good week to keep him on
the virtual sidelines.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
The switch to Thomas Brown as the offensive play caller looked
like a good move last Sunday, with the Bears sustaining drives
and scoring two touchdowns for the first time since Week 8. While
D.J. Moore is the headliner at receiver for Chicago, it was Odunze
that led the team in receiving (6-65-0), which is something he’s
quietly done three times in four games since the Bye. He was also
targeted a game-high 10 times. Beyond the total number of targets,
it’s worth noting that the rookie had arguably the two biggest
catches of the game, including a fourth down grab on the final
drive that shows he has Caleb Williams’ trust. While those are
all good things, here are a couple of inconvenient truths: 1)
the Packers hadn’t seen the Bears offense with Brown calling the
plays, now the Vikings have, and 2) Minnesota creates as much
confusion as any defense in the NFL, and that could be doubly
true for the rookies. Still, as a WR3 or flex, perhaps Odunze
can deliver.
Following three really tough weeks for Williams, the offensive
coordinator change had him looking far more comfortable in Week
11. He got the ball out of his hands quickly, and he was willing
to tuck the ball away and take off when the pocket collapsed.
We even saw some designed runs. The result: 231 yards passing
(his most since Week 5) and a career-best 70 yards on the ground.
He’s still gone four games without a touchdown, though,
and as noted, the Bears won’t have the same element of surprise
that they did versus the Packers. We’ve seen Minnesota make
life tough on quarterbacks across the experience spectrum, and
that could apply to Williams. Despite some encouraging signs,
the No. 1 overall pick should remain on your bench.
It’s been an up-and-down month for DeAndre Hopkins since
his move to the Kansas City Chiefs. He started off with a bang,
scoring 28.6 points in his second game with the team. However,
he’s failed to crack double digits in the two games since.
The biggest concern with Hopkins is his usage. With JuJu Smith-Schuster
back in the lineup, it appears the Chiefs will use a heavy rotation
at receiver. In Smith-Schuster’s first game back, Hopkins’ route
participation fell to 51 percent. It will be hard for Hopkins
to sustain consistent production if he’s struggling to crest a
60-percent route share.
Although his usage might be limited, this is a matchup where
Hopkins can still thrive. The Panthers have mightily struggled
on defense as a whole. They rank dead last in scoring defense,
allowing 31.0 points per game. Specifically through the air, they
allow 7.1 yards per pass play, the third most in the NFL. Patrick
Mahomes can have this offense humming and generate some big plays
through Hopkins.
For fantasy purposes, the Kansas City backfield might be quite
messy this week. Isaiah Pacheco may return after breaking his
fibula in Week 2. If he does return, he could quite easily be
eased back into the offense, playing a limited role that makes
it hard for either Pacheco or Kareem Hunt to return value in fantasy.
If Pacheco does not play this week, it’s wheels up for
Hunt. The Panthers have surrendered the most fantasy points to
running backs this season and have allowed running backs to score
20-plus PPR points six times this season. If Hunt is back in a
bell cow role as we’ve seen for the last six weeks, he should
be a fixture in starting lineups.
The Chiefs’ offense has not returned to the high-flying unit
that we had all expected. Injuries have certainly played a role
in this, but it is the reality of the situation. As a result,
Patrick Mahomes has been a fringe QB1 in fantasy and has just
one top-10 finish on the year.
Mahomes has the second-lowest aDOT of any starting quarterback
and comes in last in terms of his deep throw rate. His reluctance
to push the ball downfield makes it difficult for him to have
big days in fantasy. However, this is a defense that has allowed
multiple passing touchdowns in seven games this season and has
regularly allowed QB1 finishes. If there’s a matchup where
Mahomes can be a top-12 option, this is it.
Xavier Worthy is shaping up to be one of the more disappointing
rookie receivers relative to the fantasy community’s expectations.
He’s averaging just 1.11 yards per route run and his target
rate is at 17 percent despite all of the injuries to the Chiefs’
receivers.
What’s even more disappointing is what he’s shown
on film in recent weeks. His lack of awareness near the sideline
has been incredibly frustrating and wiped out some explosive plays.
When Mahomes is throwing deep at the lowest rate in the league,
Worthy absolutely has to be converting on these looks. Altogether,
Worthy is an incredibly volatile fantasy asset who shouldn’t
be in lineups unless you’re desperate.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Chuba Hubbard has spent much of the season in the No Brainer
tier, but some fantasy managers may be nervous with Jonathon Brooks
set to return in Week 12. This is just to serve as a friendly
reminder that in Brooks’ first game, he’s unlikely to see more
than a handful of touches. This could change down the stretch,
but in Week 12, this should remain Hubbard’s backfield and he
should be started as an RB2 for most teams.
We’ve started to see signs of a mini-breakout for Xavier
Legette following the departure of Diontae Johnson. He’s
held between a 16 and 24 percent target share in four straight
games and has three finishes as a WR3 or better in his last five
outings. The level of success has been moderate, but it’s
enough to at a minimum consider Legette. However, against a solid
Chiefs defense, there are likely options out there with higher
ceilings. Legette only belongs in lineups on teams that are being
crushed by the six teams on bye.
Unless a player is a superstar fantasy asset, it’s typically
in your best interest to keep them on the bench in their first
game back from an IR stint. Both Adam Thielen and Jonathon Brooks
are set to return from IR this week, but neither is the caliber
of player you want to jam in your lineup right away. Coupled with
the overall quality of the Carolina offense, it’s an easy
choice to keep this duo on benches this week.
Major strides in production have Bo Nix currently ranked just
outside the top 12 at the quarterback position. He’s thrown
at least 2 touchdowns in three of the last four games, and produced
4 combined touchdowns in two of them, including last week against
the vulnerable Falcons. The Raiders have surrendered 18 touchdown
passes and 3 rushing scores to opposing quarterbacks this season,
lending to the odds that Nix has another QB1 day.
The Raiders have been better against wide receivers than they’ve
been on quarterbacks, giving up the 7th fewest points to opposing
wideouts. They’ve had some notable shut down performances against
WR1’s since week 4, including George Pickens (6.8 points), Ja’Marr
Chase (7.8 points) and Courtland Sutton (4.2 points), who will
attempt to level the score in a rematch. This time around, Sutton
may be facing a Raiders defense without two of their three starting
corners – Jack Jones and Nate Hobb. Sutton, WR30 on the season,
is 10th at the position in fantasy points over the last five weeks.
He stands to enjoy WR2 status versus Las Vegas.
After a bizarre disappearing act in Week 10 that was never explained
by coach Sean Payton, Javonte Williams returned to lead running
back role for the Broncos in Week 11. Williams out-touched Audric
Estime 13-9 when the dust settled, but Estime only got significant
action in garbage time when the game was out of hand. Notably,
Williams also was called on in the red zone and scored his third
touchdown of the season on a 14-yard rush, and also – as
usual – was the featured back in the passing game, gathering
4 receptions on 5 targets.
The Raiders have been easy on running backs, and quite suitably
for Williams, they’ve not just given up the 8th most points
per game to the position, but also have given up the 8th most
receptions. Earlier this season, they surrendered 13.6 points
to the Broncos veteran running back, largely thanks to 5 receptions
for 50 yards. While some caution should remain after what happened
just two weeks ago, there is enough to like in this matchup and
with how the Broncos are playing as a team to consider Williams
a Flex for bye-striken owners.
With Estime quickly returning to 2nd in the pecking order behind
Javonte Williams, the avenue for him achieving a successful fantasy
day looks narrow, even against the Raiders, and far too risky
to warrant a start in all but the deepest lineups.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
The Broncos have only allowed 8.3 yards per reception to tight
ends, as well as just 3 touchdowns. But Brock Bowers is 2nd among
tight ends in fantasy points per game, and as last week’s
16 target, 13 reception performance demonstrated, he is the go-to-player
in the Raiders’ offense. It may be a more a muted performance
against Denver, but he’s still a must start.
Last time out against the Broncos, Meyers held his own, posting
a 6-72-0 line on 9 targets. Over the last five weeks, he’s
the WR19 in fantasy football, and has produced double-digit fantasy
production in four of his last six games. Still, the Broncos are
the best against receivers in the league, and it will be very
difficult for Meyers to even match his 10.2 point performance
against Denver in Week 5. He’s a risky Flex play, carrying
a low floor in Week 12.
Gardner Minshew jumps off the carousel and into the lineup for
the Raiders this week. It’s a no-win situation against a
stifling Broncos defense, and of course it’s entirely likely
that Minshew doesn’t play more than half the game. Unfortunately,
he should be avoided at all costs even in Super Flex leagues.
While Alexander Mattison (ankle) remains the most utilized running
back for the Raiders, he’s not seen double-digit carries
in either of the last two weeks and has missed practice time this
week along with Zamir White (quad). Follow practice reports on
Friday to check their status. If they sit, we could see a fair
amount of Ameer Abdullah and perhaps Dylan Laube but neither would
be recommended options.
The Seahawks have given up at least 19.5 fantasy points to opposing
quarterbacks in six of their last seven games, setting up Kyler
Murray (9th in FPts/G) quite nicely. He’s a mid-tier QB1
for the matchup this weekend.
It’s been a wild up and down season for rookie phenom Marvin
Harrison Jr., already twice having gone for over 100 yards, but
also having produced under 40 yards on five other occasions. Yet
the Seahawks have given up nine 15-point performances to opposing
wide receivers since Week 4, leaning Harrison more towards his
ceiling than his floor. Acting as a 1B to McBride’s 1A target
wise, and owning a 50% share of the team’s receiving touchdowns,
Harrison is a WR2 versus Seattle.
The number 19 running back in fantasy points per game, James
Conner has 5 touchdowns in ten games this season, and has 5 TDs
in five games against the Seahawks for his career. Seattle hasn’t
been particularly tough against opposing rushers, surrendering
the 5th most yards on the ground to opposing backs. A lot of fives
adding up to what should be a good day for Conner as a high end
RB2.
With all of the recent boom performances against the Seahawks,
Michael Wilson has some big play and red zone upside in this matchup.
He’s second on the team with 3 receiving touchdowns, and
Kyler Murray’s targets to him have been highly efficient,
producing a 110 passer rating. He’s not really a play in
standard leagues, as the floor is too low, but in deeper leagues,
he’s very much worth a look.
Fade: N/A
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Metcalf takes on a Cardinals team that has been middling against
opposing wide receivers, and will surely be thinking a lot about
what fellow teammate Jaxon Smith-Njigba has done over the last
couple of weeks. That’s great news for Metcalf, as he should
get a little more breathing room. Already the WR13 in fantasy
points per game, he’s got low end WR1 traits for this matchup.
JSN followed up his epic 180-yard, 2 touchdown performance against
the Rams with a 110 yards on 10 receptions, plus an 8 yard rush
against the 49ers. We’ve been waiting for the moment that
Smith-Njigba becomes the elite receiver he was projected to be
out of college, and there have been a couple of false positives
on that front, but he’s a must play this week on the chance
that the flood gates have opened.
Geno Smith continues to have a strange season, somehow sustaining
as a Top 12 fantasy quarterback despite producing just 13 combined
touchdowns against 11 interceptions in ten games. Smith’s
lacking touchdown totals run into a Cardinals defense that has
gotten better of late, and allowed just 1 total touchdown to opposing
QB’s over the last four games. Subsequently, the Cardinals
have not allowed more than 15 points to a quarterback in that
span, and have allowed just single digits in consecutive games.
Of note, Geno will be the first Top 12 fantasy quarterback the
Cards have faced since Jordan Love five weeks ago (27.6 points),
so it remains to be seen how much of their improvements will stick
against better offenses such a Seattle. That being said, Smith’s
lack of red zone production doesn’t represent a strong threat
to break Arizona’s stifling run, and Smith is probably more of
a high-end QB2 this week than a low-end QB1.
It may be nearing time to close the book on Tyler Lockett’s
stellar career. Over the last three weeks, he’s seen just
10 total targets, and has clearly fallen behind Metcalf and Jaxon
Smith-Njigba on the target tree. If you’re rostering him,
holding him a bit longer may be wise, to see how teams adjust
to the recent outburst of his teammate. But he should be sat until
he proves he’s more than an accessory in this offense.
The loss of Brandon Aiyuk (knee) created a void in the 49ers
passing game. Most figured the injury would thrust Samuel into
a larger role. Thus far, that has not been the case. There was
also the return of first-round pick Ricky Pearsall. He’s had a
few moments, but he hasn’t clicked, either. Instead, the slack
has been picked up by Jennings, who has 17 receptions, 184 yards,
and a touchdown over the past two games. Granted, Kittle was inactive
last week, but he was up the week before, so Jennings’ success
isn’t simply a byproduct of a missing player. While he was best
known for his blocking coming into this season, the fourth-year
pro has developed a strong chemistry with Brock Purdy, and he
should continue to approximate Aiyuk’s role while Samuel remains
in that hybrid “offensive weapon” position. Jennings is a possible
WR3 here.
Last Sunday was a tough day for Purdy (shoulder), who passed
for a season-low 159 yards, 1 TD, and 1 INT, in a loss to the
Seahawks. Perhaps of more concern is that he is now dealing with
soreness in his throwing shoulder and has been limited in practice
this week. It’s not expected to sideline him, but his effectiveness
could be compromised. The Iowa State product has quietly been
elevating his fantasy profile by running the ball, having rushed
for four TDs over the last four games. His passing has trended
in the opposite direction, however, and if he’s banged up
that doesn’t bode well for a bounce back. When he faced
the Packers in last year’s playoffs, Purdy threw for 252
yards and one TD. This year’s group is better defensively
(207.5 yards/game; 13th), but it appears they’ll be missing
Jaire Alexander (knee) this Sunday. Add it all up and Purdy looks
like a possible QB1, but one that carries some risk.
Fade: N/A
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Production wise, it’s been a mostly disappointing year
for Watson, who has finished with fewer than 40 yards in six of
his nine games this season. He’s been seeing an uptick in
opportunities in recent weeks, though, logging 17 targets in the
last three games -- in comparison, he had been targeted 14 times
in the first six games. His breakout game came last Sunday when
he turned four catches into 150 yards against the Bears, which
included a critical 60-yard catch and run on Green Bay’s
final drive. The 49ers are nearly a mirror image of Chicago in
terms of pass defense, allowing just 0.2 fewer yards per game.
There will be plays available to be made. It could be worth a
WR3/flex spot to see if Watson can make them.
It would be tempting to see Love throw a career-low 17 passes
in Week 11 and think it had something to do with his interception
issues. Don’t. Love’s reduced number of pass attempts
was born of Chicago’s able to possess the football, limiting
the Packers to just over 40 offensive snaps last Sunday. There’s
been no loss of confidence in Love. That being said, the 49ers
gave him some trouble last year. He went into the Divisional Round
matchup having thrown 21 TDs and 1 INT in his previous nine games
but settled for 194 yards, 2 TDs, and 2 INTs in that playoff loss.
The explosiveness of Green Bay’s offense means Love always
has QB1 upside, and he also looked healthier last Sunday than
he has since Week 1, which is good news. There’s clearly
downside here, though.
While Kraft does look like an emerging star for the Packers,
progress isn’t always a straight line, and to that point, the
second-year tight end has finished with less than 40 yards receiving
in four of his last five games. That includes being blanked for
the first time all year in Week 11. Kraft logs a ton of snaps,
and with Luke Musgrave (ankle) on IR, there’s no one at the position
to compete with him for targets. Those are good things, as is
his ability in the red zone (he’s tied for ninth in the NFL with
5 TD grabs). Minus more consistency, though, it’s hard to roll
with Kraft in a negative matchup like this where he might be asked
to stay in and help with blocking more than usual.
Despite Dallas Goedert’s talents, he’s third in the target pecking
order behind A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith, and behind both of
them plus Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley as scoring options down
near the goal line. This is why he carries an unfairly low floor.
However, with the Eagles likely at less than full strength this
week – see below – opportunities should be more available for
Goedert, and as he again showed earlier this season (ie. 10-170-0
against the Saints in Week 3), he’s ripe to capitalize on them.
Facing a Rams team that is leaky versus tight ends only strengthens
his case as a solid TE1 in Week 12.
DeVonta Smith missed practice on Thursday with a hamstring injury
and is iffy for this weekend’s game. His status should be
watched very closely. With hamstring injuries, even if he’s
active, there’s a real risk of the injury being aggravated
during the game. If he’s active, he’s probably best
thought of as a boom/bust Flex.
Fade: N/A
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
The Eagles have flexed their muscle on defense over the last
six weeks, giving up no more than 280 yards of offense in any
given game. During that time, a number of quality fantasy wideouts
have been laid to waste. Most recently, it was Terry McLaurin
being held to just 1.5 fantasy points, with CeeDee Lamb being
held to 5.4 the week before. Malik Nabers had a season low 6.1
against them in Week 7 and Brian Thomas Jr. had just 3.2 in Week
9. Only Ja’Marr Chase, with 15.9 points in Week 8, has had any
answer for the Eagles secondary over this scorching run. But is
that enough to hold down Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua? History suggests
not, as little has derailed Matthew Stafford’s connection with
either other than injury. To whatever degree they may be contained,
both should remain viable starters in your lineup this week.
Stafford’s fantasy value has perked significantly, and
unsurprisingly, since Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua returned, putting
up at least 20 points in three of his last four games. But Stafford
draws the unenviable task of facing an Eagles team that isn’t
just killing drives, but also has generated 11 turnovers in the
last four games. Even at home, the conditions will be tough for
Stafford to succeed. He’s reasonably a low-end QB2 against
Philadelphia.
After four 100-yard performances in a five-game span, Zay Flowers
has cooled over the last two weeks, with 34- and 39-yard outings.
He did pick up a touchdown in one of those games, and the dip
seems to have little to do with recently acquired Diontae Johnson,
who has just 2 targets in each of the last two weeks. Flowers
has exactly 6 targets in each of the last three games, not a far
cry from his average of just over 7 on the season. He remains
the most consistently reliable target in an elite offense, and
against a Chargers defense that, for all its strengths, is only
average against receivers, makes for a low-end WR2 this week.
Andrews has looked more the part of an impact tight end over
the last six weeks, largely on the back of 5 touchdowns during
that span. Andrews recent tidal wave of touchdowns is hurling
towards the sea wall that is the Chargers defense - still not
having surrendered a touchdown to tight ends this year. Andrews
will likely need to find the end zone to make a dent in the score
sheet of fantasy owners, putting him very much on the fence this
week.
It often takes time for a receiver to get acclimated in a new
offense after a trade, but Diontae Johnson’s minimal involvement
after three weeks on the Ravens isn’t the only concern.
His three different QB’s have just a combined 50.7 passer
rating on his targets in 2024 (39.6 for Lamar Jackson). This is
not the first time in his career that he’s combined with
his quarterbacks for such low efficiency (see: 58.8 passer rating
in 2022). A lot of the questions about Diontae from a quality
versus quantity standpoint remain, and whether his role in this
offense will grow when Jackson has been putting up MVP numbers
without him is greatly in doubt. For now, he’s a must sit.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
The Ravens are working on bolstering their secondary, but while
that’s in progress they are still getting torched, and Ladd
McConkey is coming off a showing worthy of a go-to receiver, making
big plays down the stretch as the Chargers rallied after letting
a big lead slip away and grabbed victory from the hands of defeat.
McConkey’s 6 reception, 123-yard performance was his second
100+ yard game in four weeks, and has him inside the Top 30 among
wide receivers. He appears to be emerging as a WR2, and is undoubtedly
so against the Ravens. Just keep an eye on his shoulder, as he
did not practice on Thursday.
J.K. Dobbins finished off last week’s dramatic Charger
win with a 24-yard TD down the sideline, his 2nd touchdown of
the day and his 8th of the season. Dobbins continues to demonstrate
that he’s the most dynamic piece of this offense, and looks
fit for another productive day, despite facing the Ravens defense.
While the Ravens been the 8th toughest defense against running
backs, a deeper look reveals that they’ve played one of
the easiest running back schedules in the league, strewn with
teams such as Dallas, Cleveland, Las Vegas and Denver. To that
point, Dobbins will be just the second Top 15 running back they’ve
faced all season, and he remains a high-end RB2.
The Ravens’ defense has been beaten early and often this season,
and as a result has allowed four different quarterbacks to put
up at least 29 fantasy points against them, and six to put up
at least 21 points. There have been some flickers recently, suggesting
that the Ravens may be turning a leaf, allowing just 12.5 fantasy
points to Bo Nix three weeks back, and just 8.3 to Russell Wilson
last week, but in between that Joe Burrow put up 33.5.
Tre’Davious White, formerly an All-Pro caliber corner,
joined the team last week and had a solid first showing working
off the bench, and that coupled with the signing of Desmond King
may help the Ravens defense become more consistent going forward.
How long that takes to develop – assuming it does –
remains to be seen, and for the moment the Ravens seem like an
opponent which can turn a respectable quarterback into no less
than a boom-or-bust option. That’s a good way to think of
Herbert this week. A high-end QB2 with both low-floor and high-ceiling
potential.
Meanwhile, despite just 2 receptions on 8 targets last week,
Quentin Johnston came through for fantasy owners looking for red
zone success versus a vulnerable Bengals team. The Ravens seem
poised to present him with another such opportunity as a boom-or-bust
Flex candidate who leans towards boom.
Gus Edwards opportunity to get in some garbage time carries was
thwarted as a big Chargers lead fell apart against the Bengals
last week. Edwards ended up with 6 carries, and it will be highly
unlikely that the Chargers enjoy positive game script or garbage
time against the Ravens. As a result, Edwards remains a sit.
