The last couple weeks we’ve seen Kamara return to a workhorse
role (70% of snaps), notching 31 and 25 touches respectively and
with the Saints continuing to miss key players in the receiving
corps, Kamara’s workload should be secure. Mark Ingram (27% of
snaps) has 9 and 10 touches the last two weeks and isn’t much
of a threat to Kamara’s production. Taysom Hill is always lurking
in the background ready to steal touchdowns and the Cardinals
D has been respectable against running backs, but we’ll trust
the workload here and sooner or later Kamara will find the endzone.
The Saints will be without Michael Thomas (toe) and Jarvis Landry
(ankle) leaving Olave, Tre’Quan Smith and Marquez Callaway to
pick up the receiving slack. Olave leads the team in targets (42),
receptions (25) and yards (389) through six weeks and could spring
a big play given the blitzing nature of the Arizona defense. Speaking
of the Cardinals D, they’ve only given up two touchdowns to wide
receivers this season and blanked the Seahawks and Eagles wideouts
the last two weeks. The less-than-ideal matchup makes Olave more
of a WR2.
Adam Trautman (ankle) will miss this game leaving Johnson the
main pass-catching weapon at tight end giving him some TE2 value
in Week 7. A 4-40 game is the likely scenario but given the injuries
around him and the Cardinals weakness at covering the position,
a TD isn’t out of the question. Noah Fant had a 6-45-0 on 7 targets
against the Cardinals last week. The Saints pass volume is a concern
as they rank in the bottom third in yards the last three weeks.
Since taking over the starting quarterback job in Week 4, Dalton
has yet to throw for more than 1 touchdown in a game and is averaging
just 195 passing yards per contest. He’s not running either,
with just 7 rushing yards in three games. His 53% completion rate
against the Bengals last week doesn’t inspire confidence.
These miniscule numbers and the volume of injuries to the receiving
corps have Dalton firmly in QB2 territory and not worthy of your
starting lineup.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
He’s baaaack. And not a moment too soon as Marquise Brown sustained
a foot injury last week that will keep him out of action for some
time. Hopkins was largely TD dependent last season but he should
step right into the No.1 receiver role this week against a Saints
team that will be missing DB Marshon Lattimore and has given up
the 6th most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Expect
a heavy snap share in Hopkins first game of the season.
Speaking of a have snap share, Moore played 99% of the snaps last
week and that should be the case in Week 7 with Marquise Brown
out of the lineup and A.J. Green being the dust ball he is. Moore
saw 10 targets last week of the low aDot variety and that should
be his role moving forward making him a better option in PPR leagues.
Robbie Anderson joined the team this week, but isn’t likely to
play much if at all, meaning Moore should have another solid week
of production.
James Conner (ribs) has been labeled a game-time decision by
head coach Kliff Kingsbury but even if he sits, I wouldn’t
be all that excited about Benjamin as Arizona running backs haven't
been great fantasy producers this season. Conner’s best
fantasy game was back in Week 1 against the Chiefs when he finished
as the RB15. Playing on 87% of the snaps last week, Eno was the
RB21 in PPR leagues on 18 touches. If Conner sits, it will be
hard to avoid the volume for Eno but his ceiling is capped at
an RB2 level.
Taylor told Colts beat writers that he felt okay last week, but
didn’t feel like he could do everything he wanted to in Week 6.
He’s reportedly healthy and slotted to start in Week 7 against
a Titans defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry. He’s back
to RB1 status. Nyheim Hines (concussion) has been a full participant
in practice this week and should play also.
Ryan has three games of 300+ yards and three games of at least
two passing TD’s in the first six weeks of the season. He
also has 99 passing attempts in the last two weeks, but is averaging
just 6.4 yards per attempt in that span. He’s efficient,
but with Jonathan Taylor returning to the lineup, I’m not
sure he’s the favorable play he’s been in recent weeks.
Despite seeing seven targets in Week 6, Pierce was only third
on the team in targets as Matt Ryan leaned heavily on the check-down
game. It seems that even if the ball is in the air as opposed
to being safely in Jonathan Taylor’s hands, the controlled
passing game will be in play in Indy, leaving Pierce and his deep
threat ability as a boom or bust prospect.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Henry IS the Titans offense and it’s just based on volume.
He has 20+ carries in four of Tennessee’s first five games
and is coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts before the bye
last week. HC Mike Vrabel will continue to feed him the rock despite
Henry averaging less than 4.0 yards per carry.
Woods caught just three of his eight targets in Week 5, which
is a continuation of the story of the Titans passing attack and
Woods’ play in 2022. He’s been inefficient and has
only one game of more than 40 receiving yards. But with Treylon
Burks in IR, and few other options available in the passing game,
Woods has to be considered at least a WR3. He’s just got
to catch some more of those balls that come his way.
The Titans will run. So, it makes sense that Tannehill has posted
30+ attempts just once this season. It also follows that he hasn’t
passed for even 200 yards each of the last two games and averages
just 6.4 yards per attempt in that span. Until Henry is sidelined
for any reason, he’ll never produce enough of a stat line
to be fantasy relevant.
I like what HC Brian Daboll is doing with Jones. He’s been much
more efficient as a passer and his 67% completion percentage is
by far the best of his career. But he’s also one of the Top 5
rushing QB’s in the league, with two scores on the ground to his
credit. Jacksonville has given up two monster games to quarterbacks
this season: Carson Wentz (313-4-2) and Matt Ryan (389-3-0).
Bellinger’s role in the offense continues to evolve as he’s hauled
in ten catches on 11 targets and found the end zone twice this
season. He played on 94% of the snaps last week which is a positive
sign. He’s totaled 40+ yards only once however, so he may just
be a TE2 fill in on the bye weeks for now. Keep an eye on how
he evolves in the offense though.
James had a big Week 1 performance and hasn’t been heard from
since. Even Darius Slayton, who was an after-thought for a time
in this system, has moved ahead of James. Despite still leading
the team in receiving, he hasn’t caught more than two balls in
a game in nearly a month and plays a similar role to Wan’Dale
Robinson who should see a bigger snap share at the expense of
James as the season moves on.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
It’s taken longer than I would have thought, but Etienne is finally
pushing his way into the RB1 conversation in Jacksonville. He
has over 150 rushing yards over the last two games on just 20
carries, and he continues to be a force in the receiving game.
He was still out-carried by James Robinson last week (12 to 10),
but he has been the more efficient and more productive back of
late.
Is there room for two RBs in Jacksonville? This week, against
a Giants defense that is giving up a league-worst 5.6 yards per
carry, there might be. Robinson has been yielding some touches
to Travis Etienne, but he’s still getting more carries than his
counterpart. With Trevor Lawrence playing inconsistently, I look
for HC Doug Pederson to keep it simple and keep it on the ground,
making Robinson a solid RB2.
Lawrence has as many INT’s as he does TD’s (3) over the last
three games and hasn’t even eclipsed 200 passing yards in two
of those three contests. In fact, he’s yet to post a 300-yard
game all season. The Giants have been solid against quarterbacks
even holding Lamar Jackson to a QB11 finish last week.
Fournette hasn’t been tearing things up on the ground (3.6
ypc). He’s been fine. But he does have 23 catches and three
receiving scores in the last three games, and he faces a familiar
foe in division opponent Carolina, a team that has been yielding
over 21 fantasy points per game to RB’s through the first
six weeks of the season.
With Cameron Brate likely out at least a couple weeks with a neck
injury, Otton could find himself dropped into a solid TE2 conversation
as the Bucs’ starter. With Tom Brady under center, the TE’s in
Tampa not named Rob Gronkowski haven’t had a chance to shine in
this offense. But, he contributed two catches for 23 yards after
Brate’s injury last week, and came into the game off a 7-target
day in Week 5. Young and athletic he could pop in the right matchup.
Gage has three straight games with just two catches, and he’s
eclipsed 30 receiving yards in a game just once all season. He’s
a talented receiver who brings some versatility to the table,
but he’s solidly behind fellow WR’s Mike Evans and
Chris Godwin, and Tom Brady doesn’t seem too focused on
anything beyond them.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
I realize no one is running to the Carolina roster looking for
offensive weapons. But with the departure of Robbie Anderson,
Marshall should slide into the WR2 role. He can excel from the
slot or the perimeter, and owners should be reminded that he led
LSU’s national championship team in 2019 in TD receptions – a
team that featured All-Pro Justin Jefferson. He’s got sleeper
potential.
Moore must be crying in his sleep wondering why he can’t
be traded like Robbie Anderson and McCaffrey. He hasn’t
seen the end zone since Week 2 and he’s only surpassed 50
yards receiving in a game one time this season. When you’re
trying to catch balls from QB’s named Walker, Eason, Mayfield
and Darnold, your prospects aren’t good. This is a former
Pro Bowl receiver who is third on his own team in receiving.
It’s fun to dream about a breakout season from one of the
Packers’ rookie wide receivers, but the reality is that
veteran Allen Lazard has continued to be the best option from
a fantasy standpoint. Lazard has now been targeted at least eight
times in three straight games and he’s scored a touchdown
in four of the Packers’ past five contests. The only other
game in that stretch where he didn’t score a touchdown was
in Week 4 against the Patriots when he caught six passes for s
season-high 116 yards. He’s been a reliable fantasy WR2
and he now faces a Commanders defense that has conceded the seventh-most
fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers so far this
season. Opposing WR1s facing the Commanders are scoring a whopping
22 fantasy points per game, so let’s continue to ride this
hot streak from Lazard.
While Allen Lazard’s numbers look good, quarterback Aaron
Rodgers has been a huge disappointment for fantasy managers. The
back-to-back NFL MVP has been a mediocre fantasy performer and
currently ranks just barely inside the top 20 at the position
on the year. He does face a bad Commanders secondary this week,
though, so there’s some hope that this might be the first
big performance of the season for the Packers QB, but right now
he’s not nearly the plug-and-play option that we’re
used to him being.
Additionally, tight end Robert Tonyan hadn’t done much to be
excited about this season prior to his surprising Week 6 performance
against the Jets in which he caught 10 passes for 90 yards on
12 targets. Tonyan has never been much more than a touchdown-or-bust
option type performer, but perhaps the Packers’ lack of proven
depth, especially with the injury to Randall Cobb, will lead to
him being a more consistently-targeted player in this offense.
He’s worth a look for most teams given the overall lack of production
throughout the league at TE this season.
It’s difficult for multiple running backs to be productive in
a backfield, but that’s especially true when an offense is struggling
as much as Green Bay’s is at the moment. He’s touched the ball
at least 14 times in all but one of the Packers’ games, but Dillon
has produced just one double-digit PPR fantasy day this season
and that came all the way back in Week 1. He’s still been on the
field for roughly half of all Green Bay snaps this season, but
he’s performing significantly worse than teammate Aaron Jones
on a per-touch basis. There’s still hope for things to turn around
in Green Bay, but for now, it’s probably wise to leave him on
your bench in seasonal leagues.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Pre-season reports that Brian Robinson had overtaken Antonio
Gibson as the top back in Washington seem to be coming to fruition
now as the rookie carried the ball 17 times to Gibson’s five in
Week 6, while also nearly matching the total snap count of Gibson
and J.D. McKissic combined. It’s clear that this is Robinson’s
backfield when the team is in neutral or positive game scripts
and while a matchup with the Packers might have historically been
a scary one for a player like Robinson, the Green Bay offense
is struggling mightily at the moment and this game could end up
being more of a grind than we would’ve previously assumed.
Things have not been good in the Washington passing game for
a while now and it’s likely only going to get worse now that the
team is looking at Taylor Heinicke being their quarterback for
the next month or two. Perhaps what’s most shocking in this entire
Washington offense is the lack of usage for McLaurin who has now
been targeted six or fewer times in three straight contests and
has not seen a 10-target game yet this season. He’s still producing
excellent per-catch numbers, but he’s always going to be a low-ceiling
option until he starts seeing more passes come his way. Meanwhile,
Samuel has seen at least seven targets in all but one game this
season, but his yards per reception are roughly half of McLaurin’s.
The offense as a whole has been ugly as of late and there will
probably be worse starters in most leagues than these guys, but
fantasy managers shouldn’t be excited about either McLaurin or
Samuel right now.
Brian Robinson’s emergence likely means that things are
going to be pretty ugly for the other backs in Washington. Gibson
and McKissic both had their roles and were viable fantasy options
in 2021, but if they’re only seeing backup duties as runners
while splitting passing down work, there’s just not going
to be enough to go around for them to be useful fantasy assets.
There’s always the possibility that Washington falls behind
by multiple scores in games and we could end up seeing these two
both play more snaps than Robinson, but that seems unlikely in
a game against the Packers who are themselves struggling to put
points on the board this season.
Swift is expected to make his return to the field after missing
two games in addition to the Lions’ Week 6 bye due to multiple
injuries. While he has not been officially cleared to play, things
seem to be trending in the right direction and Swift should return
to his role as the Lions’ top back, particularly in the passing
game, which could be significant in this showdown with the Cowboys.
Dallas has one of the league’s top defenses and they’re expected
to have Dak Prescott, so this could be a situation where the Lions
end up falling behind on the scoreboard and relying more heavily
on their passing game. Swift caught nearly five passes per game
in 2021 and getting him in space will be important in this matchup.
If Swift is indeed back on the field, then Jamaal Williams will
likely concede his role as the team’s primary back and again
be relegated to backup duties. That doesn’t sound so great
heading into a matchup against the Cowboys and their fourth-ranked
fantasy defense against opposing running backs. Dallas has not
allowed a 100-yard rusher since their Week 1 blowout loss to Leonard
Fournette and the Buccaneers, and they’ve only allowed two
total touchdowns to the position on the season. Williams is a
bit too much of a touchdown-or-bust player when Swift is in the
lineup to trust him for most teams, but bye weeks and injuries
have made things difficult for many fantasy managers who will
likely still have to put him in their lineups. It is worth noting,
as well, that Williams would immediately be a strong RB2 in the
potential scenario where Swift sits out another week.
Wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown returned to the field this past
week and while he only played 21 snaps, he saw six targets in
that span, further establishing the reality that he is indeed
the top target in this offense. The question is really about which
other wide receiver is in line for the second-most work. Earlier
this season it was Chark and Josh Reynolds who played nearly identical
snaps alongside St. Brown, but Chark has now missed the past two
games as he deals with an ankle injury. Reynolds is also dealing
with a knee injury of his own and both players missed practice
on Wednesday which has their status up in the air for Sunday.
We’ve seen Reynolds be productive this season, though, whereas
Chark has failed to exceed four receptions in any game. Even if
Reynolds misses this contest, Chark should be avoided for fantasy
purposes until we see him actually get back on the field and produce.
Keep an eye on Kalif Raymond in this one, as well, as he may end
up being the team’s de facto WR2 if both Chark and Reynolds are
forced to miss the game. Raymond could have sleeper appeal in
deep leagues.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
One big takeaway from the Cowboys’ Week 6 loss to the Eagles
was that Ezekiel Elliott seemed to have the explosiveness that
many have been saying was missing for a while now. Elliott’s 6.2
yards per carry on 13 carries against a good Eagles defense has
to be taken note of, especially now that he has touched the ball
at least 14 times in five straight games. You don’t have to like
it, but Elliott is the Cowboys’ top running back and he’s getting
the goal line work as well. The Lions have given up the second-most
fantasy points to opposing running backs this season, including
back-to-back 150-plus-yard rushing performances to Rashaad Penny
and Rhamondre Stevenson, along with a league-worst eight rushing
touchdowns on the season. Elliott is not very active in the passing
game these days, but this is a juicy matchup for his skill set.
It was fun while it lasted, but the Cooper Rush experience is
expected to come to an end this Sunday as Dak Prescott finally
makes his return to the field for the Cowboys. It’s easy to forget,
but the Cowboys were the NFL’s best offense on a yards-per-game
basis just a season ago and they were also the highest-scoring
team in the league at 31.2 points per game. The defense seems
to be even better than it was a season ago and the offensive firepower
along with the offensive line are worse, so don’t expect a return
to the top of the league in offense, but Prescott is certainly
still capable of delivering big fantasy numbers, especially in
matchups like the one he’ll face on Sunday against the Lions.
Detroit has given up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to
opposing quarterbacks this season and they’ve only held one QB
- Bailey Zappe - to fewer than 20 points.
Fantasy managers who selected Tony Pollard in the middle rounds
are kicking themselves at this point as it’s seeming less
and less likely by the week that he’ll ever get a chance
to supplant Ezekiel Elliott this season. Pollard is still playing
a little over 43 percent of the Cowboys’ snaps, but his
touches remain around 10 per game. Worse yet, those touches are
coming primarily in the form of carries, as opposed to receptions,
making them significantly less valuable for fantasy purposes.
This is a game in which both Elliott and Pollard could produce
respectable numbers, but it’s going to be difficult for
Pollard to ever really give managers a “boom” week
without multiple touchdowns.
With Cordarrelle Patterson (knee) still on IR, Allgeier and Caleb
Huntley have been sharing the load in terms of carries, but the
rookie has been getting more snaps, logging 72 to Huntley’s 36
over the past two games. That’s enough to get Allgeier the nod
as the better option in Week 7. Cincinnati got marched over by
the Saints last weekend, allowing a whopping 228 yards on 34 carries
-- that's 6.7 yards per tote. If the Falcons can keep it close,
they’ll have a chance to lean on their ground game. That gives
Allgeier RB3 value.
London started hot, catching 16 passes for 214 yards and a pair
of TDs over his first three games in the NFL. He’s cooled
since then. In his last three outings, the rookie has just nine
receptions, 92 yards, and no scores. He still comfortably leads
the club in catches and yards, however, and if an explosive Bengals
offense can put Atlanta down in a hole it could lead to more throwing
than usual for the Falcons. It’s a risk to be sure, but
London offers WR3 upside if you need to cover a bye or injury.
Mariota is coming off a solid week with 129 yards passing, 50
yards rushing, and 3 combined TDs. Don’t get drawn in by
the three scores. While Mariota can have good days, his pathway
to value is exceedingly narrow, throwing for fewer than 200 yards
four times already this season along with three games of less
than 20 yards on the ground. He’s a desperation play with
a very low floor.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Burrow’s return to Louisiana, where he won a National Championship,
couldn’t have gone much smoother as the former No. 1 overall pick
threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns; he added 25 yards and
a rushing score for good measure. Atlanta has had all kinds of
trouble slowing down opposing passing attacks, ranking 31st in
the NFL in yards allowed through the air (281.2 per game). While
Burrow is already pretty close to a no-brainer at this point,
he brings top-five upside into Week 7.
As has been previously noted, it really comes down to Hurst or
Tyler Boyd as the No. 3 option behind Chase and Higgins. After
watching George Kittle post an 8-83-0 line this past weekend,
I’m giving the nod to Hurst being that tertiary threat here. That
said, Hurst has only topped 30 yards in a game twice this year,
so you’d be taking a risk by plugging him into your lineup as
a low-end TE1.
Not much went right for Cleveland in Week 6, though Cooper at
least delivered a little fantasy value by scoring the team’s lone
touchdown as part of a modest 4-catch, 44-yard effort. His usage
confirms he’s Jacoby Brissett’s first read as his 12 targets were
twice as many as anyone else on the club. Although the Ravens
have been better after a dreadful start defensively, they still
sit 28th in pass defense at 267.7 yards allowed per game. That
makes Cooper a low-end WR2 or strong WR3 for their Week 7 encounter.
Through six weeks, Hunt is averaging 57 total yards and 0.5 TDs
per game. A year ago, his numbers through six games were 87 combined
yards and 0.83 TDs per outing. Given that drop off, Hunt can no
longer be considered a no-brainer. While he appeared in both matchups
with Baltimore in 2021, it’s hard to assign much weight
to those since they came after his initial injury -- for the record,
he posted 38 yards combined in the two games. The Ravens boast
the NFL’s eighth-ranked run defense (103.8 yards per game),
making Hunt no better than an RB3 or flex play.
Fade: N/A
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
With Dobbins (knee) having his knee “tighten up” last Sunday,
Drake stepped in and had his best game with the club, rushing
for 119 yards and a touchdown on just 10 carries. If Dobbins and/or
Justice Hill, who has missed the last two games with a balky hammy,
are inactive in Week 7, Drake could see a lot of work. The Browns
have had real trouble with tackling and run defense for a while
now, and their 11 rushing touchdowns allowed for the season are
the most in the NFL. Drake is a worthwhile flex with upside even
if Dobbins is active; if not, Drake is a high-potential RB3.
As noted, Dobbins had some issues with his surgically repaired
knee last Sunday, and his status for this week’s divisional
tilt is in question. One thing is for certain, the Ravens are
going to err on the side of caution with their No. 1 back, who
has only logged double-digit touches once in four games since
making his season debut in Week 3. Even if he’s active,
I’d be tempted to sit Dobbins as a precaution against him
being used only in spot duty or something of that nature. At most,
view him as a shaky flex.
Beginning in Week 4, the Jets turned their lead-back role over
to Breece Hall and he’s seen 19-20-22 touches since. Michael Carter
is still seeing the field (49% of snaps last week) but the production
is coming from Hall who blew up in Week 5 finishing as the RB4.
The Broncos are middle of the pace against running backs but the
Jets offense is focused on the running back position at the moment
and there’s no sense in getting off this train. Another strong
performance on the road, against a solid defense, and Hall will
be in no-brainer territory.
Elijah Moore’s snap percentage the last three weeks: 90-66-58.
He didn’t see a target in Week 6. He doesn’t seem too thrilled
with his role either and missed practice Thursday for a “personal
day” and has reportedly requested a trade. Not great. After some
early season success with Joe Flacco at the helm, rookie Garrett
Wilson has seen his production fall off a cliff as well, posting
6 catches and 76 scoreless yards the last three weeks. Corey Davis
has actually been the best of the bunch during this span but fantasy
owners have a hard time clicking his name. Someone from this group
will likely be fantasy worthy this week but facing a defense that’s
given up the 2nd fewest fantasy points to the position makes me
sit on the wrong side of the fence for the Jets receivers this
week.
We’ve got a theme going here on the Jets offense. More Breece
Hall and less passing. That includes the tight end position where
Conklin is now sharing time with C.J. Uzomah and has only caught
four passes the last three weeks. The Jets have attempted 36-21-18
passes during that span. This is a situation to avoid for the
time being.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
There was some question heading into the season which Denver
wide receiver would see the bulk of the work in this offense.
Through six games, the answer has been Courtland Sutton and even
with the offense struggling with consistency, Sutton is the most
reliable. He’s out-targeted Jeudy 49 to 36 and has 31 catches
compared to Jeudy’s 17. The Jets are middle of the pack against
wide receivers but have given up three 100-yard games already
this season (Amari Cooper, Tyler Boyd, George Pickens).
First thing, we’re still unclear whether Russell Wilson (hamstring)
will start in this game. If not, Brett Rypien will get the call
which may or may not be a negative depending on your point of
view. The Broncos pass game certainly hasn’t been firing on all
cylinders under the cringeworthy Wilson. Denver ranks 21st in
fantasy points scored at the QB position and 22nd at WR. Jeudy
is getting a couple deep looks per contest but hasn’t caught more
than 4 passes in a game this season. However, with bye weeks and
injuries, its likely you’ll need Jeudy’s services this week.
With Albert Okwuegbunam inactive, tight end Greg Dulcich made
his debut last week and we saw the rookie play 71% of the snaps.
He’s the best pass-catching option at the position for Denver
and the usage was encouraging however, I’d be less excited about
Dulcich and the other Denver wide receivers if a gimpy Russell
Wilson gets the start.
What a mess. To begin the season, Melvin Gordon was splitting
time Javonte Williams. Now, with Williams out for the year, the
Broncos somehow decided Gordon wasn’t good enough to play over
a recently signed Latavius Murray who saw 15 carries against the
Chargers last week while Gordon (3 carries) barely played at all.
After a post-game pow-wow, head coach(?) Nathaniel Hackett has
stated that Gordon will get the start this week. That may be the
case, but all three of the Denver running backs are likely to
see action this week and this situation is too murky to trust
until we get some more clarity.
Much like the Jets, the Texans have shifted their offensive focus
to the running back position. Pierce has 22-20-29 touches the
last three weeks and has seen 13 targets in the passing game during
that span. He played on 79% of the teams snaps the week prior
to their bye. The Raiders allowed 25 FPts (PPR) to Derrick Henry
in Week 3 but have otherwise played reasonably well against running
backs. Still, take the volume here and roll with Pierce as a solid
RB2.
If you’re going to give Mills a chance, this might be the week
against a Raiders defense that’s given up the most fantasy points
to quarterbacks this season. This problem is, Mills has been bad
to start the season and the Texans offense has struggled in the
passing game as a result. Mills only has 5 passing TDs in five
games and has yet to top 246 yards in any contest. Cooks has cooled
off after seeing 22 targets the first two weeks. He’s been targeted
20 times since and hasn’t topped 57 yards since Week 1. On the
plus side, Raiders CB Nate Hobbs (hand) is out for this game after
going on IR earlier in the week.
Fade: N/A
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
With Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Kirk Cousins and Matthew Stafford
on bye, Carr is going to be a consideration for fantasy owners
this week. He’s got a 300-yard game under his belt (Wk3 @TEN)
and piled up 295 yards and 2 TDs against the Chargers in Week
1. Carr has thrown 2 TDs in four out of his five starts and even
showed some rushing chops with 40 yards on the ground against
Denver in Week 4. This is all to say that a floor is there and
some obvious play-action passes to Davante Adams are coming in
this game that could elevate Carr to a ceiling game against a
marginal Texans defense that’s given up a couple 300-yards games
(Matt Ryan, Justin Herbert) of their own.
Darren Waller played just a handful of snaps (8) in Week 5 before
leaving with a hamstring injury. Coming out of the bye, he missed
practice this and isn’t expected to play. Foster Moreau (knee)
hasn’t played since Week 3 but is expected to play and could be
a sneaky tight end option with Waller out.
Hunter Renfrow’s absence could lift the value of Hollins who posted
a week-winning 8-158-1 line back in Week 3 against the Titans,
but duded out (3-33-0) with Renfrow on the sidelines in Week 4.
Hollins has seen at least a 95% snap share since Week 3. The Texans
D represents a neutral matchup but have allowed just 1 touchdown
to a wide receiver in five games.
Walker’s first game as the featured running back saw him get
23 touches against Arizona while playing on 69% of the snaps.
DeeJay Dallas was the only other running back to see significant
action but only got 2 carries and 0 targets. It’s wheels up for
the rookie who gets a Chargers D that’s given up the fourth-most
fantasy points to running backs including three 100-yard rushing
games to James Robinson, Dameon Pierce and Nick Chubb. Walker
is an easy RB2 with RB1 upside.
The early season Geno story has been a bright spot for fantasy
owners but he’s now thrown in two duds (Weeks 2 & 6) to go along
with finishes of QB15, QB7, QB1 and QB4. His 73% competition rate
leads all quarterbacks (at least 4 games) and he’s added a couple
40-yard rushing games to help bolster his fantasy value. Tyler
Lockett played through a hamstring injury last week but missed
practice Wednesday and Thursday. Keep an eye on his status this
weekend. The Chargers represent a neutral matchup and had some
communication issues last week that resulted in the benching of
DB J.C. Jackson. For what it’s worth, Jackson will start this
week. This is the highest total game of the week and with all
things considered, I’d feel comfortable starting the Seahawks
passing attack.
Fant has been getting some buzz this week after he popped up
for 6 catches and 45 yards last week against the Cardinals on
7 targets. First, the Cardinals have been perennially bad against
the tight end position and second, Will Dissly played a normal
snap rate (65%) while Fant saw a typical 63% snap percentage.
The Chargers blew a coverage last week and gave up their first
touchdown to the position, and are one of the few teams that held
Travis Kelce out of the endzone. Look elsewhere for your tight
end dart throw.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Both Herbert and Williams are coming off dismal performances
last week against the Broncos that saw Herbert fail to throw a
touchdown pass for the first time in 27 games on his way to a
QB24 finish, his worst of the season. Despite 57 pass attempts,
Mike Williams only saw 6 targets that resulted in 2 catches for
17 yards. Yuck. The offense should have an easier time of it this
week against Seattle that’s given up 27 points per game and the
7th most passing yards through six weeks. Josh Palmer may miss
this game due to a concussion and even if Keenan Allen plays,
it wouldn’t be a shock if the Chargers ease him back in leaving
Williams as the go-to-guy in Week 7.
The Chargers are in an interesting spot here as Allen attempts
to work his way back onto the field after injuring his hamstring
in Week 1 then re-aggravating the injury a couple weeks later.
They have a bye next week which would give him another couple
weeks of rest but Allen has been on the practice field this week,
getting in limited sessions both Wednesday and Thursday. Even
if he does play, it’s going to be hard to trust him in your
lineup making him a risky WR2.
Gerald Everett may be back in the saddle as a legit low-end TE1
as Donald Parham suffered a concussion last week and isn’t likely
to play. That would leave Everett as the main pass-catching tight
end against a Seahawks D that’s given up the most receiving yards
to the tight end position.
We finally got a breakout game from JuJu (5-113-1) but it came
on only five targets and his 42-yard touchdown was somewhat fluky.
Still, part of the reason you put him in your lineup is the offensive
environment and the elite quarterback play which can lead to games
like last week against the Bills. JuJu leads all Chief wideouts
with 40 targets and 370 yards and is on the field for all two-receiver
sets along with Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The 49ers D has been
stubborn this season allowing the 4th fewest fantasy points to
receivers and will likely be getting DE Joey Bosa back. I wouldn’t
expect another WR1 game here but it will be hard to keep JuJu
out of your lineup.
After his hyper-efficient start, CEH has cooled off the last
couple weeks rushing for a combined 48 yards on 18 carries and
posting zero catches against the Bills last week. The Chiefs are
basically rotating three running backs and any one of them could
pop up to be fantasy relevant and I’d expect Isiah Pacheco to
start working in more on early downs as soon as Andy Reid feels
comfortable with the rookie. Throw in the fact that the 49ers
are allowing the 7th-fewest fantasy points to the position and
I’d look for other alternatives at running back this week.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Wilson played only 52% of the snaps last week and has been ceding
playing time to Tevin Coleman of late but the matchup here is
too good to ignore. It appears OL Trent Williams (ankle) will
back and the Chiefs defense is comfortable giving up fantasy points
to running backs… the 5th most through six weeks. Wilson only
got 7 carries last week but the 49ers abandoned the running game
after falling behind Atlanta in the first quarter. He won’t be
popular, but I’d be comfortable with Wilson in my Flex this week.
The Chiefs bend but don’t break defense has allowed a lot of receivers,
especially No.1 receivers to rack up yards against them. They’ve
allowed four 100-yard games and it wouldn’t shock me if we saw
another one from either Deebo or Aiyuk. Kansas City may get CB
Trent McDuffie (hamstring) back in the mix which could help bolster
their secondary. The 49ers second receiver is coming off his best
game of the season (8-83-2) on 11 targets and it would be unrealistic
to expect a repeat performance, but a WR2 finish isn’t out of
the question.
It’d be easy to Najee Harris him off as a complete waste
at this point and perhaps that’s what it’ll end up
being again this week, but this matchup against the Dolphins is
one that he could potentially exploit. Miami is a top-12 opponent
for opposing running backs this season and they’ve now given
up 15-or-more-point fantasy days to five running backs over their
past four contests. It’s also worth noting that Harris has
played an extremely difficult schedule so far this season. The
Buccaneers (32nd), Bills (27th), Jets (20th), Patriots (31st),
and Bengals (25th) are all excellent against the position and
Harris’ only positive matchup came against the Browns (3rd)
in Week 3 when he scored his only rushing touchdown of the season
thus far. Harris has not been good, but he has a fairly high floor
in this matchup.
We don’t yet know for certain which quarterback will be starting
for the Steelers this weekend, but Kenny Pickett appears to be
trending toward starting and that should be a good thing for the
team’s offensive ceiling. While he’s struggled to really create
a great rapport with Pickett so far, Diontae Johnson remains the
Steelers’ top pass-catching weapon and he’ll get to face a Dolphins
defense that currently ranks inside the top 12 in fantasy points
per game given up to opposing wide receivers. The only team that’s
really had trouble getting the ball to their wide receivers against
the Dolphins has been the Jets.
While we should trust that targets will eventually turn into
fantasy production for Diontae Johnson, it’s tough to expect that
rookie George Pickens will be able to deliver very many high fantasy
point days when he’s only being targeted between five to eight
times per game. That’s especially true when those targets are
coming from different quarterbacks whom he hasn’t yet established
a connection with. Additionally, Pickens has been out-targeted
and out-snapped by Chase Claypool in back-to-back games, making
him a difficult-to-trust fantasy asset at the moment.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
With 47 carries over his past three carries compared to Chase
Edmonds’ eight carries, Mostert is certainly running away
with the starting running back job in Miami. While his usage hasn’t
always translated into massive fantasy production, Mostert did
have a 113-yard rushing day in Week 5 against the Jets and there’s
a real opportunity for him this week against a Pittsburgh defense
that has given up the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing
backs so far this season. We’ll have to keep an eye on Mostert’s
knee to make sure he’s active, but he played through the
knee injury in Week 6 against the Vikings so he should be back
on the field and in firm RB2 territory in this one.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be back on the field
this week and it couldn’t come at a better time as the Dolphins
have lost in back-to-back contests without him. Tagovailoa absolutely
torched the Ravens defense in the only great statistical matchup
he’s had so far this season and he now gets to face a Steelers
defense that has given up the seventh-most fantasy points per
game to opposing QBs so far this season. Every QB they’ve
faced thus far has scored at least 16 fantasy points against them,
so Tua is a relatively safe option with upside here in Week 7.
A six-catch, 69-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 6 had
many fantasy managers jumping to their waiver wires to pick up
Gesicki. While Gesicki absolutely dominated in that contest and
we know that he has the physical talent to be a fantasy asset
at a weak tight end position, this situation is a classic example
of many managers not looking at the full picture. Prior to his
Week 6 breakout, Gesicki had actually been significantly behind
fellow tight end Durham Smythe in snaps played this season. This
led to Gesicki failing to even see five targets in any game prior
to Week 6, which Smythe missed due to injury. There’s still a
chance that Smythe sits again this weekend, but he’s trending
in a positive direction and could again be back to his role as
the team’s primary tight end, which would really limit Gesicki’s
role in the offense. Gesicki is the type of player who can score
touchdowns on very few targets, but he’s currently scoring a touchdown
on one out of every five catches that he makes this season, which
is almost completely unsustainable. Don’t fall for the low sample
size traps like this.
While he’s still among the league’s worst in pass
attempts per game, Fields is finally trending upward and has now
delivered back-to-back respectable fantasy quarterback performances.
It’s hard to be very excited about anyone in this offense
as it currently stands, but Fields is the type of quarterback
who can deliver boom weeks even if he’s not getting the
job done with his arm. He’s averaging 47 yards per game
on the ground thus far and he just had a game where he rushed
for 88 yards against the Commanders. The Patriots are always a
tough matchup for a young quarterback, but they’ve struggled
a bit against mobile quarterbacks in recent games. Lamar Jackson
rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown against them in Week 3 and
Josh Allen rushed for 64 yards against them in Week 16 of the
2021 season. Fields isn’t a strong play by any means, but
he presents more upside than a lot of the other bye-week fill-ins
on the board this week.
David Montgomery has reestablished himself as the RB1 in Chicago
since returning from injury and he has now touched the ball 32
times compared to Khalil Herbert’s 11 touches over the past two
weeks. Montgomery has been admittedly less effective with his
touches than Herbert has, but the fact that the coaching staff
apparently trusts him more is worthy of noting, even if it’s frustrating
for some fantasy managers. Montgomery’s strong usage makes him
a high-floor play in most matchups, but he does face difficult
opposition this week in the form of the Patriots. New England
has given up the second-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing
running backs so far this season, including zero touchdowns. Only
Aaron Jones has rushed for more than 75 yards against them, making
this one of the worst possible on-paper matchups for Montgomery.
It’s difficult to imagine that many teams will have multiple better
options than Montgomery given the landscape of the running back
position throughout the league, but don’t expect too many fireworks
from him in this one.
Wide receiver Darnell Mooney finally saw his first high usage
game of the 2022 season when he was targeted 12 times against
the Commanders in Week 6. His seven receptions for 68 yards allowed
him to deliver his best fantasy performance of the season, even
though it came in a loss. While things seem to be trending up
for Mooney and the 12 targets are definitely something to pay
attention to, it’s also worth considering that he will almost
certainly never see that high of a target percentage in a game
this season. Fields still only threw the ball 27 times, meaning
that Mooney saw a ridiculous 44 percent target rate in that contest.
He’s by far the team’s best pass-catching weapon so
we expect him to lead the team in that category, but even the
top receivers in the league typically only hover around the 30
percent mark throughout the season. Expect Mooney to be back around
the 20-to-25 percent range, which will mean somewhere between
five to seven targets most weeks in an offense that is struggling
to put points on the board. Keep watching and hoping for overall
offensive efficiency improvements, but leave Mooney on your bench
for now.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
With Damien Harris knocked out of the Patriots’ Week 5 game and
completely sidelined in Week 6, we finally got an opportunity
to see Rhamondre Stevenson in a true workhorse back role and it
was glorious. The second-year Patriots back carried the ball 44
times for 237 yards, adding two touchdowns on the ground and six
total catches for 29 yards over that stretch. He was a bonafide
fantasy RB1 over this short stretch and while Harris could be
back this week, it’s hard to believe that he’ll be given his normal
allotment of snaps given his health and Stevenson’s recent effectiveness.
New England is always a frustrating backfield to predict, but
Stevenson seems like a pretty safe option to continue to produce,
especially against a Chicago defense that has allowed over 120
rushing yards per game to opposing running backs.
It’s tough to get overly excited about any receiver in
this New England passing game, but the one rock who’s yet
to really let down fantasy managers has been Jakobi Meyers. Meyers
has reached double-digit points in all four of his starts this
season and he’s averaging nearly eight targets per game
played. There are definitely higher upside plays out there and
Meyers isn’t a great option for every team, but those looking
for reliable points can look toward Meyers as the Patriots’
WR1.
Rookie wide receiver Tyquan Thornton had a lot of hype coming
out of training camp and he showed off some of his game-changing
speed in just his second professional game this past week when
he scored twice in the Patriots’ blowout win over the Browns.
While Thornton did produce fantasy points due to the touchdowns,
his overall numbers have not been very exciting. He was fourth
on the team in snaps behind Jakobi Meyers, DeVante Parker, and
Kendrick Bourne in Week 5, and while he did pass Bourne in Week
6, he remained firmly behind Meyers and Parker. This is a low
passing volume offense to begin with, so relying on a player to
score multiple touchdowns on such few touches is just not something
that fantasy managers should be doing at this point.
