A couple of weeks back,
I attempted to identify the QBs, RBs, and WRs most at risk of falling
from the Top 10 ranks this coming season. This week, I’ll
be focusing on those players who I think have the potential to fill
the expected vacancies. Let’s get right to it…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy WRs from last season…
Wide Receivers Most Likely to Rise in
2013:
With a new QB and head coach, Fitzgerald
is a candidate for fantasy comeback player of the year.
Larry
Fitzgerald, ARI: There wasn’t a bigger waste of talent
running around on Sundays last season at the receiver position than
Larry Fitzgerald, and—unlike when Randy
Moss was pretending to care about the game circa three years
ago—it had literally nothing to do with the Arizona superstar’s
work ethic. Pairing the league’s second-best receiver with the assortment
of so-called quarterbacks the Cardinals trotted out in 2012 was
just patently unfair. Predictably, the former Pitt Panther nabbed
just 45 percent of his targets, an obscenely low success rate for
such a gifted ball-shagger. Worse yet, only four of those receptions
counted for six points. When his season mercifully concluded, Fitzgerald
was ranked way down there at 42 in the receiver rankings, behind
such studs as Justin
Blackmon, Denarius
Moore, and…oh, yeah, his teammate Andre
Roberts. Are you kidding me?
The cavalry is on the way for 2013 in the form of Carson Palmer,
late of the Oakland Raiders, and new head man Bruce Arians, last
year’s AP Head Coach of the Year (as interim replacement for
Chuck Pagano in Indy). The former is probably nearing the end of
his up-and-down career, but still throws a great deep ball and has
loads of starting experience, something none of last year’s
signal callers could claim. The latter has built some very successful
pass-heavy offenses in Pittsburgh and then Indianapolis and likes
to feature precisely those shots down the field at which Palmer
excels. A match made in heaven it may not be, but it’s a heckuva
lot better than what Fitz had to work with last year, making this
the easiest called shot of the 2013 season: Larry Fitzgerald will
easily return to the Top 10 and has an outside chance, provided
Palmer stays upright, of being a Top 5 guy again.
James
Jones, GB: So, Fitzgerald back in the Top 10 this year
is a layup. Let’s back up behind the arc then, up the degree of
difficulty about 100 percent, and call a truly risky shot by tabbing
Green Bay’s third most popular receiver as next year’s surprise
Top 10 crasher, shall we? Why the heck not? You won’t remember anyway,
and it’s not my job to remind you.
In all seriousness, Jones isn’t the complete left-field candidate
he may appear to be at first glance. In fact, he’s quietly
been posting some pretty amazing numbers these past few years, especially
when you consider he’s been no better than Green Bay’s
fourth and sometimes fifth option in the passing game. Just four
receivers have scored more than 20 times in the past two seasons:
Calvin Johnson (duh), Dez Bryant (not surprising), Eric Decker (OK,
kinda surprising), and James Jones (wait, what?). What’s even
more amazing about that stat is that Jones doesn’t see nearly
the amount of targets these other three men do. Johnson, for instance,
has garnered an eye-popping 362 looks the past two years. Jones?
Just 153. That means he scores a touchdown for every eight times
Aaron Rodgers merely looks his way!
Everyone will be hitching up to the Randall Cobb and Jordy Nelson
bandwagons now that Greg Jennings is in the Twin Cities, and I’m
certainly not going to discourage that. They’re both terrific
receivers and will probably have great seasons. The most productive
fantasy option when Jennings succumbed to an abdominal tear last
season was neither of those two gents, however. It was Jones. Why
does that change in 2013 now that Jennings has completely moved
on? It’s worth asking yourself. That’s all I’m
saying.
Tavon
Austin, STL: OK, now I’m just being goofy, right? A rookie
receiver cracking the Top 10? A rookie receiver who plays for St.
Louis? Austin replaces the man who replaced the man who basically
defined the slot receiver position these past several years. All
I’m expecting him to do (no pressure, kid) is pick up where Percy
Harvin temporarily leaves off and redefine it again. Whereas
guys like Wes
Welker and Danny
Amendola use elite lateral quicks to keep drives alive, guys
like Harvin and now Austin add the dimension of blazing speed to
the formula. And if there’s one truism I’ve gleaned in my many years
of watching way too much football, it’s this: Speed kills.
Austin actually tied for the second-fastest 40-yard time (4.34 seconds)
at last February’s combine, but it isn’t even his straight-line
speed that marks him as elite. Rather, he has an uncanny ability
to “regulate” that speed as circumstances dictate (to
set up a defender, say) and then explode into open space with uncommon
acceleration. He’s going to be a matchup nightmare for just
about anyone who lines up opposite him. I guess the only real question
is whether Sam Bradford can consistently get him the ball, a concern
that may be alleviated if the Rams elect to line him up in the backfield.
It wouldn’t be a new wrinkle for the former Mountaineer. All
he did in a game last November against Oklahoma was rush for (get
this) 344 yards on 21 carries. 344! This just in: Austin is a receiver!!!
The only thing you’re really worried about with these slot
types, as we’ve discovered with both Harvin and Amendola,
is injury. Slighter frames plus explosive hits = trouble. I’m
banking Austin’s elite athleticism will help him avoid most,
if not all, of those devastating direct hits.
Next: Quarterbacks
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