A couple of weeks back,
I attempted to identify the QBs, RBs, and WRs most at risk of falling
from the Top 10 ranks this coming season. This week, I’ll
be focusing on those players who I think have the potential to fill
the expected vacancies. Let’s get right to it…
Note: All rankings are based on FFToday’s default standard
scoring.
A quick reminder of the Top 10 fantasy RBs from last season…
Running Backs Most Likely to Rise in
2013:
Steven
Jackson, ATL: How’s that old saw go? Success = Preparedness
+ Opportunity? It’s a much simpler equation for NFL running backs,
actually: Success = Opportunity. Period. In the last three seasons,
Top 10 rock-toters have averaged a shade over 30 more carries per
season (275.6) than the next 10 backs (244.0). That’s more than
a game’s worth of carries at the professional level and it mostly
explains what separates elite backs from the meat-and-potatoes guys
several notches lower.
Jackson has probably been the most consistently busy running back
in the league since he took over the full-time job in St. Louis
way back in 2005. Since then, he’s never once fallen out of the
Top 20 in rushing attempts for a season and has notched four Top
10 finishes (and three of them in the Top 3 ) in that category.
This despite the fact that he missed four games apiece in 2007 and
2008. It’s not like he’s a quantity-over-quality guy, either. He
sports a tidy 4.2 yards-per-carry for his career and has never fallen
below the 1000-yard mark since becoming the Rams’ primary backfield
option. Did I mention he’s also consistently good for about 45–50
receptions and another 300–350 receiving yards each year? They simply
don’t come much more reliable than this, folks.
After nearly a decade in St. Louie, Jackson has moved on to Atlanta,
where he’ll plug into one of the most explosive young offenses
around. His versatility will be most welcome for a team that had
become somewhat predictable with Michael Turner in the backfield.
Turner was similarly dependable and quite productive as a runner,
sure, but was a complete liability in the passing game. Expect Jackson
to shine as a dual-threat dynamo in the ATL as he enters the twilight
of his career.
McCoy will be the biggest factor in the
blur offense.
LeSean
McCoy, PHI: Chip Kelly’s comically prolific “blur” offense
may have helped revolutionize college football, but in some senses,
there wasn’t a lot that was truly revolutionary about it. It was
essentially a run-heavy, zone-read attack that aimed to spread defenses
out and put speed (and lots of it) into space. What made Kelly’s
scheme so unique and so uniquely devastating was the vertigo-inducing
tempo at which it was run. More than anything else, the Ducks simply
wore people out these last five years, running an average of 2.83
plays per minute since 2008 (2nd in the nation).
It’s anybody’s guess how well this attack will translate
at the next level, but if it’s ultimately successful, Shady
McCoy will be a major reason why—not to mention the primary
beneficiary from a fantasy perspective. He’s literally a perfect
fit for the offense, possessing great speed, unparalleled shiftiness,
and a great set of hands. That last part will be very important
since the Eagles are unlikely to have the same run-pass imbalance
the Ducks did (you can’t get away with that in the NFL) and
are currently very short on viable receiving options thanks to Jeremy
Maclin’s season-ending ACL tear and Riley Cooper’s…never
mind.
McCoy is coming off an injury-marred campaign himself, of course,
which opened the door for Bryce Brown to become a short-term fantasy
superstar (he led all RBs in scoring for Weeks 12 and 13). Should
we worry about Brown taking too big a bite out of McCoy’s
workload in 2013? I say no. The Eagles will likely run more plays
than any team in the league this season (see above), and a bigger
pie equals more pieces, right? Also, Brown had serious ball security
issues in 2012, something no coach, not even a maverick like Kelly,
will tolerate. McCoy’s your guy.
Le’Veon
Bell, PIT: If we’ve learned anything about young backs
in the professional ranks, it’s this: Unless they’re immediately
productive and stay moderately healthy, their shelf life is bound
to be brutally short. Here’s a list of running back draftees since
2009 considered by many to be the answer for their respective teams
at the time they were selected: Beanie
Wells, Knowshon
Moreno, Donald
Brown, Shonn
Greene, Ryan
Mathews, Jahvid Best, Montario
Hardesty, James
Starks, Mark
Ingram, Mikel
Leshoure, Ryan
Williams, Daniel
Thomas, Kendall
Hunter.... Need me to go on? The league is littered with relatively
high draft picks who briefly looked like meal tickets but have since
been superseded by other, newer players or, in some cases, completely
unheralded ones. These guys haven’t even been in the league for
five years and most of them are already afterthoughts!
That was kind of a weird setup for endorsing a rookie ground-gainer,
I realize, but I’m just trying to make the “I told you
so” next preseason that much sweeter. After all, it was in
this same space last year that I predicted a Top 10 finish for 2012’s
most heralded running back prospect, Trent Richardson. He barely
cracked that select group—minor injuries and playing for the
Cleveland Browns almost prevented it—but he was every bit
as special as advertised and ultimately ranked ninth overall despite
one DNP and two games with single-digit carries.
Bell isn’t as talented as Richardson but is lucky enough to be joining
a much better offense and his only real competition (Rashard
Mendenhall) bolted for the desert this past summer. He’s built
to carry a heavy load, did so in college already, and will do so
again as a Steeler. Recall what I said earlier about heavy loads
and then bump Bell up your pre-draft rankings.
Next: Wide Receivers
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