A week ago, the Steelers went into Seattle, a team that needed
a win to retain control of their playoff chances, and beat them.
Much of the credit belongs to the tandem of Harris (27 carries,
122 yards, 2 TDs) and Warren (17 touches, 98 yards, 1 TD). With
Mason Rudolph again under center this Saturday, that duo is likely
to be asked to do the heavy lifting once again. On paper, the
Ravens aren’t a defense to expect big things against, but they’ve
secured the top seed in the AFC and will be prioritizing health.
This feels like a game where Pittsburgh can win by avoiding big
mistakes, and the run game is the way to do that. Harris is a
midrange RB2, and Warren is a high-end RB3.
With Pickens notching back-to-back big games with Rudolph --
not to mention having a huge game versus the Ravens in their earlier
matchup -- it looks like Johnson is the wild card in the passing
game right now. He had just two catches for 15 yards versus the
Bengals in Rudolph’s first start but rebounded with a 4-76-0
line last weekend. In a week where there simply aren’t as
many reliable options, Johnson could be worth using as a low-level
No. 3 receiver.
Fade: N/A
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Baltimore locking down the No. 1 seed means rest for its top
players and opportunities for those lower on the depth chart.
The biggest such name is Gordon, who was a top-tier fantasy producer
during his early days with the Chargers. He’s been carried on
the Ravens practice squad for much of the season but finally got
a call to the 53-man roster when Keaton Mitchell (knee) tore his
ACL. Gordon saw a little action late against the Dolphins, scoring
a touchdown, and he could find himself as one of the focal points
of the offense in Week 18. As a flex or even an RB3, Gordon makes
sense.
Another veteran that has played sparingly in 2023 but does have
some pelts on the wall is Agholor, who has three seasons of more
than 700 yards receiving in his career. The veteran is a capable
deep threat, and he’s likely to see increased snaps, perhaps alongside
Rashod Bateman. While he’s no Lamar Jackson, Tyler Huntley has
experience running the offense, and the Ravens should still be
able to move the ball on an inconsistent Steelers defense. Agholor
holds a puncher’s chance at value.
Devin Singletary faces one of the league’s worst run defenses
in the Colts. Indy has given up the sixth-most rushing yards and
the fourth-most TDs on the ground, so Singletary should have some
opportunities to produce. His lack of TDs should give you pause,
but he has turned himself into a weekly starter for the first
time in his career. No need to turn your back on him now.
Nico Collins surprised the fantasy world with some eye-opening
performances early in the season. He showed glimpses of his old
self last week, catching seven passes for 80 yards during a game
that was hardly ever in doubt after halftime. This week’s game
should be closer, and thus the passing game should remain relevant
for a healthy chunk of the contest. The absence of fellow wideout
Noah Brown should give Collins even more opportunities to perform.
Speaking of Brown’s absence, TE Dalton Schultz should expect
an uptick in his role as a result. But like most tight ends, Schultz’s
production has been up and down all season. His two-catch performance
last week on four targets followed a two-game stretch where he
had 12 catches on 15 targets. Indy is a middle-of-the-pack defense
against the pass, so it’s truly a hit-or-miss proposition
for Schultz this week. In the absence of other top notch TEs across
the league, however, you could do a lot worse than Schultz.
Remember going into the 2019 season when there was a healthy
debate about which LA Rams receiver to take between Robert Woods
and Cooper Kupp? Thankfully, I chose Kupp that year after somebody
grabbed Woods a few picks before me, but that seems like a lifetime
ago since Woods has been on the fantasy radar. He remains off
the fantasy radar and thus should remain off your fantasy team.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
A number of QBs around the league are sitting out this week,
which gives other signal callers a boost in the rankings. Gardner
Minshew is one of them. Minshew should be able to move the ball
through the air but could find it difficult to hit paydirt. The
Texans are a classic bend-but-don’t-break defense, as they
give up the eighth-most passing yards but the fewest TD passes
in the league.
Josh Downs continues to be underwhelming relative to his fantasy
output. I still believe in his stock long term, but he’s
not a startable option at this point.
This offense in Atlanta remains an unpredictable, underachieving,
turnover-prone mess. We can blame the QBs, but whatever scheme
the team is using continues to fall short of utilizing all their
top weapons. I remain baffled why it appears Kyle Pitts is a run-of-the-mill
TE that they used a top-5 pick on. Is it him or the scheme? We
rightfully expected him to come out balling like Sam LaPorta,
but his play has looked like that of a third-round pick. Incredible.
Drake London has at least had some explosive games, even if he’s
been painfully inconsistent. The only thing fantasy manager can
hope for is some kind of change—either at the head coach or QB
position.
Fade: N/A
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Derek Carr is enjoying the best stretch of the season by far.
He has 10 TD passes over his last four games with only two INTs
in that stretch. That’s an incredible improvement over the four
games prior when he totaled three TD passes against two picks.
With RB Alvin Kamara (ankle) likely to miss the contest, we should
expect Carr to increase his downfield attempts while putting up
solid numbers in the process.
Jamaal Williams is a north and south runner who usually doesn’t
provide much in the passing game—although his four-catch game
last week was the first time all season he had more than two receptions
in a game. We can expect rookie Kendre Miller to see some action,
but the bulk of the action should go to Williams, despite having
not scored a TD all season.
Rashid Shaheed got word this week that he was selected to his
first Pro Bowl and a return specialist. That speaks to the potential
he has and his ability to make big plays. He isn’t someone
you should count on for consistency, but he’s a swing-for-the-fences
option who could pay huge dividends.
As we’ve seen this season, Calvin Ridley’s performance
could go either way during any given week. He could hit the opposition
with a 7/103/2 stat line as he did against the Titans in November
or a two-catch stinker for 20 yards as he did in the game prior
to the aforementioned Tennessee game. And with a banged-up Trevor
Lawrence expecting to play, we’re not sure what Jacksonville’s
passing game is going to look like beyond Evan Engram. Ridley’s
high ceiling makes him an enticing option, but those clunkers
are always a possibility.
Trevor Lawrence has endured a boatload of injuries this season,
and now it’s his shoulder. It sounds like he’s trending
toward playing, but beware of any limitations his injury may cause.
I would look elsewhere.
Fade: N/A
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
This could be Derrick Henry’s last game as a Titan, but
we have no idea which Derrick Henry we’re going to get.
He remains a threat as a TD scorer, as he showed during Weeks
12-14 when he had six total TDs. Father Time is tugging at Henry’s
collar, so his days of consistent production are in the rearview
mirror.
Meanwhile, the question marks at quarterback leave DeAndre Hopkins
a hit or miss option as well. Rookie Will Levis injured his foot
last week, and with Ryan Tannehill most likely not returning next
season, the Titans may turn to Malik Willis. What we know of Willis
so far in his career is his passing is still raw and he relies
heavily on his legs—neither of which bodes well for a productive
day from the WR position.
After trotting out Jaren Hall on Sunday night, the Vikings turned
back to Mullens at halftime. He didn’t play great -- 113 yards,
1 TD, 0 INTs -- but apparently it was enough to reclaim the starting
job for Week 18. It was Mullens’ uneven effort against the Lions
in Week 16 that got him the hook to begin with as he passed for
411 yards and a pair of touchdowns but also tossed four interceptions.
Fantasy owners can live with turnovers when they come attached
to big-time numbers like those, and any time you have a QB that’s
throwing to the likes of Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and K.J. Osborn,
there’s some upside. Mullens would be a risky starting choice,
but there is potential.
Chandler took the fantasy world by storm in Week 15 when he started
for an injured Alexander Mattison and racked up 132 yards and
a touchdown. In two games since, he has 18 carries, 67 yards,
and a TD. He had just 17 yards versus the Lions in Week 16, so
you can see why there’s reason to be pessimistic about his outlook.
He continues to see more touches than Mattison, however, and perhaps
the Vikings will look for a more balanced attack this weekend.
He’d be worth plugging into your lineup as a flex.
Fade: N/A
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
In his last four games, Goff has thrown eight touchdown passes
and four interceptions. That first number doesn’t sound
bad, until you remember he tossed five TD passes (without a pick)
against Denver in Week 15. That means in his other three outings
he has a 3:4 TD-to-INT ratio, including 257 yards and 1 TD in
the win over Minnesota two weeks ago. It’s entirely possible
the loss to the Packers on New Year’s Eve broke the Vikings’
spirit, and the Lions will carve them up. Then again, maybe Detroit,
which is highly likely to remain the No. 3 seed, lacks an edge.
With so many other QBs hurt or resting, Goff holds low-end QB1
value.
While you’d never consider playing Reynolds most weeks,
a lot of teams are setting key players down to rest them for the
playoffs. Dan Campbell says he’s not going to do that, so
unless he changes course mid-game and plugs Reynolds into the
lineup, he’ll remain an afterthought on offense. Don’t
chance it.
With a ridiculous 22 receptions over his past two games, Breece
Hall has been one of the true league-winning players down the
stretch this season and he now faces a Patriots defense that has
given up the eighth-most receptions to opposing running backs.
If he continues to see double-digit carries and at least a handful
of passes come his way then there’s no reason to think that
Hall won’t again be a strong start for fantasy managers
here in the final week of the regular season.
Breece Hall’s recent dominance has meant that there hasn’t been
as much fantasy production to go around to other players, but
wide receiver Garrett Wilson is the only other player in this
New York Jets offense who fantasy managers should be interested
in. Unfortunately, he’ll have Trevor Siemian at quarterback again
this week, who has quarterbacked some mediocre performances for
Wilson, including a pair of sub-double-digit fantasy days over
the past three weeks. On the positive side, Wilson has continued
to be the team’s top wide receiver as he’s been targeted 29 times
in the three games in which Siemian has played significant snaps.
Fade: N/A
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
With Rhamondre Stevenson still on IR, fantasy managers should
again be looking at Ezekiel Elliott as a strong RB2 heading into
this week. Elliott has at least 15 touches in five straight games
and has hauled in 29 passes over those contests. He rushed 16
times for 80 yards when he faced the Jets back in Week 3, despite
being the backup RB at the time, so look for him to approach 15
and potentially even 20 touches in this matchup.
The New England passing game has been horrendous all season,
but one of the few players who’s been able to even have
a few fantasy-relevant performances has been tight end Hunter
Henry. Unfortunately, Henry has missed the past two games with
a knee injury and that has kept him limited in practice throughout
this week as well. If he is active, though, he does have a nice
matchup as the Jets have given up the eighth-most fantasy points
to opposing tight ends this season.
Demario Douglas might be the Patriots’ leading receiver
but he - and everyone else in this passing game - lacks the upside
to be a significant contributor. Douglas hasn’t scored a
touchdown yet this season and has been held to under 15 points
in every game. There’s hope here for an expanded role with
improved quarterback play next season, but don’t bother
here in Week 18.
I still scratch my head that an offense led by Baker Mayfield
has developed so many fantasy-relative players. And not just relevant,
but league winners. Chris Godwin is not one of them necessarily,
but his consistency can complement a stacked fantasy roster beautifully.
Certainly, his lack of TDs may scare off some fantasy managers,
but again, he is as steady a flex option as you will find in the
league. If that’s what you need, then Godwin is your man.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Adam Thielen hasn’t scored since Week 6, but this could
be the game that reacquaints him with the end zone. The Buccaneers
have given up the most passing yards in the league and the 10th-most
passing TDs. It will be crucial for Thielen to remain the lead
dog in this passing attack if the Panthers have any chance of
moving the ball through the air, as they lack other quality pass
catchers. Thielen has the potential to end the 2023-24 campaign
on a high note.
Chuba Hubbard has been limited to 88 rushing yards over the previous
two games, and now he faces the league’s sixth toughest
team against the run. Over the past four games, the Bucs have
surrendered an average of 75 yards per game on the ground. That
doesn’t bode well for a team that typically struggles to
keep defenses honest with the passing game.
We know Joe Flacco won’t play in the season finale. You can bet
others will follow. Of course, this isn’t the preseason, so you
can’t sit everyone, but expect the usual backfield duo of Jerome
Ford and Kareem Hunt to see minimal snaps this Sunday. In their
stead, Strong should get the lion’s share of the work. The former
fourth-round pick has logged 49 carries for 226 yards and a touchdown
this season, topping out with a 10-41-0 line versus the Seahawks
back in October. Cleveland’s top goal is avoiding injury, and
the best way to do that is to limit the number of snaps by keeping
the clock running. Don’t be shocked if Strong delivers RB3 value
or better here.
Given that Amari Cooper (heel) was inactive last Thursday with
a heel injury, the odds that he’ll return for a meaningless Week
18 encounter are long. On top of that, Elijah Moore (concussion)
suffered a concussion in that TNF game, and he too would benefit
from extra rest. That leaves the likes of Tillman and David Bell
to be the lead receivers. Of course, we have no idea who recently
signed Jeff Driskel will target, or how much they’ll even put
the ball in the air. Tillman has flashed during his rookie year
and could be a flier from a flex role.
Fade: Everyone else
As noted, Flacco is being replaced by Driscoll. Cooper and Moore
are dealing with injuries. Ford, Hunt, and David Njoku figure
to play little, if at all. None of them can be trusted to produce
from a starting spot in your lineup this week.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
After watching Browning turn the ball over three times in a loss
to Pittsburgh, the team appeared to try and rein him in last Sunday
as he threw for a season-low 197 yards in a loss to Kansas City
that eliminated the Bengals from playoff contention. With neither
team having anything to play for, don’t be surprised if Cincy
cuts Browning loose once again. He passed for over 300 yards in
three of his previous four games, and he’ll primarily be facing
Cleveland’s backups. While it’s possible the Bengals won’t ask
players like Chase and Tee Higgins, both of whom have been bothered
by injuries, to play as many snaps as usual, Browning still carries
top-10 upside into Week 18.
Higgins picked up a hamstring injury during the team’s Week 17
loss to KC, though he was able to return. How much they ask of
the wideout, who may well be playing his final game with the club,
is up for debate. Assuming he’s active and sees a healthy number
of snaps, Higgins has good upside against a Browns team that has
nothing to play for as they look ahead to Wild Card Weekend. That
would be an assumption, though, as the team could also choose
to limit Higgins’ opportunities. That’s why he’s a risky option
this Sunday.
Metcalf (5-106-0 vs the Steelers last week) has put together
his second most productive season of his career, including what
will be a career high 17.0 yards per reception. He’s also
pulled down his second highest yardage total – 1104 yards
and counting – and has 8 touchdowns. The Cardinals are decent
against wide receivers (17th), but have no one that can physically
match up with the Seahawks star receiver. Metcalf ranks No.18
in fantasy points per game among wide receivers as the season
nears its end, and with several top wideouts injured or resting,
Metcalf is fairly a borderline WR1 this week.
In three games against the Cardinals since the start of last
year, Geno has scored under 15 points in two of the outings and
has just 4 total touchdowns. One of the biggest reasons for these
particularly quiet showings has been that Smith has averaged just
under 30 pass attempts per game. With the Seahawks again favored
versus the Cardinals, the game script may be quite similar.
Smith has struggled for relevancy in the fantasy world even when
he’s seen closer to his season average of 34 attempts a
game, and so it’s hard to turn to him this week. In a depleted
QB field, though, Smith is a mid-QB2 versus a Cardinals defense
that has still given up the 4th most points to quarterbacks, especially
with the Seahawks needing this game to help secure a playoff spot.
Meanwhile, Kenneth Walker continues to play despite not practicing,
and it’s very likely that he will do so again this week.
His Week 17 effort (15 fantasy points) was far more fruitful than
his performance in Week 16 (5.6 fantasy points), and the Cardinals
do give up more points to running backs than anyone, making him
a must play if he is indeed active. Keep a close eye on his status
as kick off nears.
Fade: N/A
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Kyler Murray tossed 3 touchdowns last week versus the Eagles,
and now has back-to-back multi-touchdown pass performances. Players
recovering from ACL tears often slowly but surely get back to
form over the course of a season, and Murray may be doing just
that. As it is, Murray finds himself ranked No.11 in fantasy points
per game among QB’s as he prepares to take on the Seahawks,
who have been middling against opposing QBs (13th most points
allowed). Murray is reasonably a mid-level QB1 with the likes
of Mahomes and Jackson sitting this week.
James Conner has 25 or more carries in two of his last four starts,
and at least 17 touches in every game during that span. Reunited
with Murray, his pass catching has started to return – 15
of his 23 receptions have come with Murray, including 9 in the
last three games. Versus a Seahawks team that has given up a whopping
20 touchdowns to running backs, the threat of negative game script
is the only thing keeping Conner from elite RB1 status. At No.15
in fantasy points per game among running backs and facing a beatable
Seahawks defense, he’s still easily a Top 12 option this
week.
It holds true that Greg Dortch can be in the WR3/4 picture when
Kyler Murray is shorthanded, and that was demonstrated again last
week when Dortch went for 7-82-0 against the Eagles. The Seahawks
secondary is not as vulnerable as the Eagles, so Dortch is arguably
a deeper flex play, but has upside due to the opportunity for
volume and a career 74% catch rate.
With D’Onta Foreman missing time for the cryptic “personal reasons”
in Week 16 and then being a healthy scratch this past Sunday,
it appears we’re back where we started in the Bears backfield
with Herbert (back) as the lead option followed by Roschon Johnson.
He’s posted consecutive games of 100-plus yards, including an
18-124-1 line against the Falcons, and though they’ve been a bit
better lately, Green Bay’s run defense would never be considered
a strength. One thing to watch is Herbert’s back injury, which
has left him limited in practice this week. Assuming he plays,
Herbert is an RB2.
By any metric, Kmet (knee) is Chicago’s No. 2 target in
the passing game behind Moore, and he’s just two weeks removed
from a 4-107-0 performance. He injured his knee in that game,
though, and was on a snap count versus Atlanta, going without
a reception. While this may be the final game for some in a Bears
uniform, Kmet looks to be part of their long-term plan, so the
team is sure to prioritize his future over gutting it out in a
game where the Bears are already eliminated from the playoffs.
Given the level of uncertainty it’d be hard to slot Kmet
into your lineup.
Fade: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
After weeks of being on the fence, it felt like the time was
right to elevate Love to no-brainer status. He’s played at a high
level for most of the second half of the season, and he’s done
it without some of his top guys. That looks to be changing. Both
Reed and Watson, as well as Dontayvion Wicks (ankle), are back
at practice, which would provide an influx of talent and speed
to an offense that’s produced consecutive 33-point outings. Of
the group, Reed looks like the strongest play, operating as a
high-end WR3 or even WR2. Watson is more of a wild card, having
not played since Week 13. He had a 7-71-2 line in that game, though,
so if he’s active he’s worth plugging him in as a WR3 with all
kinds of upside.
Kraft has quietly emerged as a frequent target of Love, catching
18 passes for 229 yards and a touchdown over the last four games.
That’s solid production, and in a week where players like Travis
Kelce, Isaiah Likely, and David Njoku won’t play much, if at all,
it could move the rookie into the top-10 producers at the position.
The caveat is the possible return of Luke Musgrave (kidney) from
IR. He was TE1 before getting injured, and if he’s activated from
IR it could cut into Kraft’s opportunities.
Rumors are circulating that A.J. Brown has been vocally frustrated
with the Eagles’ offense and his role within it. We’ve
seen this before and it’s resulted in the team focusing
on feeding him the ball. Don’t be surprised if he sees 12
or more targets this week as the “squeaky wheel” narrative
comes to life. Even during his recent slump, Brown has still been
usable for fantasy most weeks, as he’s averaged over 14
fantasy points per game over his most recent six-game stretch.
Brown had six receptions for 80 yards on 11 targets when these
teams met just two weeks ago, so he seems like a strong bet to
turn in at least a WR2 performance against the Giants.
Eagles tight end Dallas Goedert was only targeted six times against
the Cardinals in Week 17, but caught five of those passes for
47 yards and a touchdown - his first trip to the end zone since
Week 7. We’d like to see more passes come his way if we’re
going to be confident in putting him in our lineups, but several
tight ends have been underperforming and it’d make sense
to pivot to a player like Goedert who’s been looking better
as of late.
Goedert was targeted a season-high nine times against the Giants
when these teams matched up in Week 16, catching seven of those
passes for 71 yards. DeVonta Smith could miss the game, which
would further consolidate targets, making Goedert an even stronger
play.
The fantasy playoffs have not been kind to Philadelphia wide
receiver DeVonta Smith, as the former Heisman Trophy winner has
been targeted exactly five times over his past three games. While
he was able to turn in respectable, albeit uninspiring performances
in Weeks 15 and 16, Smith finally fell off a cliff in Week 17
when he caught just three passes for 30 yards. He also left that
game with an ankle injury and has not practiced since, putting
his status in question for Sunday’s game. We might be willing
to risk it if Smith was putting up huge numbers lately, but his
slump in conjunction with his health concerns makes him a fade
for those playing in Week 18.
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
The Giants’ season has been a disaster, but running back Saquon
Barkley remains easily the best fantasy contributor in this offense.
Barkley touched the ball 26 times when these teams matched up
in Week 16, contributing nearly 20 fantasy points in the process,
and things are actually looking up for the New York offense as
a whole now that Tyrod Taylor is behind center. An improved passing
game - or even just the threat of a viable passing game - should
give Barkley more opportunities to score, making him both a solid
floor and ceiling play even against the Eagles who have mostly
been good against running backs this season.
Quarterback Tyrod Taylor is dealing with a back injury which
makes him a little extra risky this week than he otherwise would
be, but Taylor showed us in Week 17 that he still has the physical
tools to be a viable QB2 for fantasy purposes. Taylor threw for
319 yards and a touchdown, only threw one interception, and perhaps
most importantly showed off his wheels with 40 rushing yards against
the Rams. We shouldn’t expect that type of performance every
week, but he does have an excellent on-paper matchup this week
as he faces a Philadelphia defense that has given up the second-most
fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.
The Giants’ wide receiver room continues to be a complete
disaster and while Darius Slayton has been seeing a role increase
in recent weeks, his production has still been extremely fluky.
Slayton has gone into double-digit PPR points in three straight
contests, including his first 100-yard game of the season this
past week, but he still hasn’t caught more than four passes
in any game this season. He may get into the end zone again, but
this small sample-size touchdown efficiency isn’t likely
to continue.
Matthew Stafford will be among the Rams getting a rest, with
Los Angeles having clinched a wild card spot and simultaneously
having no shot at the 49ers for the division. Expect neither team
to show a lot of their playbook, as they have already faced once
and could face again down the road in the playoffs.
The Niners will surely rest some of their top defensive players,
which may be a saving grace for Wentz and company. For managers
who are short-handed this week due to QB injuries and better options
(such as Stafford) being rested, Wentz is someone you may have
to look at, being a mid-level QB2. However, the Rams will likely
use a very basic offensive attack, with depth players on the field
around Wentz, making him and unappealing option.
Over the last four weeks, Demarcus Robinson has seen 29 targets
and reeled in 17 receptions, as well as 3 touchdowns, even with
Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua on the field. Tutu Atwell, who is expected
to return this week, will likely be the Rams #1 and #2 wideouts
for much of this game, with key Rams starters resting (see below).
They’ll have Carson Wentz throwing to them, but it at least puts
the pair – particularly Robinson – in the flex conversation in
a very short-handed week for fantasy owners.
Both Cooper Kupp and Kyren Williams will sit this weekend. Nacua
has not officially joined this list, as he has a chance to set
Ram rookie records for receptions and yards. But, he needs just
4 receptions and 29 yards to set both marks, so it’s unlikely
he’ll stay on the field long enough to put up fantasy worthy
numbers.
With Kyren Williams sitting, any and all of Ronnie Rivers, Royce
Freeman and Zach Evans could see action this weekend, with no
clear-cut answer as to who will lead the backfield, or if there
will be a leader, at all. Starting any of these backs could leave
fantasy owners walking away emptied handed, and the boom side
is unlikely to be significant enough to take the risk.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
A banged up Christian McCaffrey will rest this week, as the 49ers
have no reason to take any chances with the 1st seed wrapped up.
Elijah Mitchell stepped in for McCaffrey last week and finally
made a dent (17-80-1 on the ground). Those managers whose seasons
extend to Week 18, and survived losing McCaffrey last week (or
otherwise had Mitchell stashed), could be rewarded this week.
It’s likely that the 49ers will grind this game out and look towards
the playoffs. Mitchell has always shown talent as a runner, and
while his health remains a risk, the upside here warrants serious
RB2 consideration.
Sam Darnold will get the call this week, as Brock Purdy will
be counted among the 49ers getting a rest ahead of the post season.
Darnold would be a more appealing play if he was running out there
with the same talent that Purdy typically does, but that will
not be the case. Jauan Jennings (concussion) is likely to be his
top receiver through most, if not all, of this game, and Darnold
will likely spend most of the time handing off to Elijah Mitchell
and Jordan Mason, anyhow. Even in a brutally short-handed week
at quarterback, Darnold is probably not a play except in two QB
leagues.
In addition to Purdy, the 49ers are expected to rest Brandon
Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle. Owners should look elsewhere,
as neither Aiyuk, Samuel nor Kittle can be expected to be on the
field for more than a drive or two, if they see the field at all.
Williams was not able to cash in on a great opportunity last
week against the Chargers, really putting a nail in the coffin
of his season. Yet, if your team is still playing this week, you
need live bodies who are a lock to touch the ball. Therefore,
resurrecting Williams for one week may be wise. Williams had 18
more touches last week, and getting his floor – which is
typically about all he’s offered – may be enough to
beat an opponent who has to roll with a risky candidate at flex.
Fade: QB Jarrett
Stidham and the rest of the Broncos offense
Broncos offense could barely muster anything with Stidham versus
a beaten Chargers defense, and while anything goes in Week 18,
the Raiders have played their most inspired defense under interim
coach Antonio Pierce (allowing just 18 FPts/G and forcing 13 TO
in 8 games). There’s no reason to expect them to let up
this week, as many of the players on defense are possibly playing
for his job, as well as theirs. There are similar QBs to Stidham
who are facing teams that will rest members of their defense,
or teams such as the Broncos, themselves, who may be divided in
the locker room. Looking elsewhere seems wise.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
Davante Adams had 21 targets last week. What else is there to
say? There's no indication he'll rest in this one and the targets
should keep flowing. He’s an easy start.
Zamir White is also a must start this week, assuming Josh Jacobs
sits. He hasn’t been practicing, and although Antonio Pierce said
that Jacob’s is a game time decision, it’s extremely unlikely
that this is more than smoke being blown to mask the Raiders real
intentions. Still, just in case, keep an eye on the injury reports
this weekend. With 20 or more touches in three-straight games,
White is an RB1 against a beatable Denver defense.
Aidan O’Connell’s last four weeks have been the ultimate
roller coaster. Versus the Vikings four weeks ago, he mustered
just 171 yards passing and 0 touchdowns against 1 interception.
The Raiders were shutout. The following week saw the most unlikely
turn of events, with O’Connell and friends putting up 63
points on the Chargers. In that game, he threw for 248 yards and
4 touchdown passes. A week later, he managed just 62 yards passing
for an entire game against the Chiefs! Then, last week against
the Colts, he tossed a career high 299 yards and 2 touchdowns.
Which O’Connell you’re going to get may somewhat come down to
which Broncos’ defense he’s going to face. The Broncos were torn
apart early in the season, including in giving up 70 points to
the Dolphins. They then found their form in the middle of the
season. They did not look as sharp, though, recently against Jared
Goff (278-5-0) and Bailey Zappe (256-2-0). In short. Dr. Jekyll
may be going up against his twin when O’Connell faces off with
the Broncos defense. It’s a dart throw, probably only primed for
big underdogs feeling the need to take chances this week.
Jakobi Meyers converted 10 targets into 6 receptions for 56 yards
last week against the Colts. It was his first time being targeted
10 or more times since October. Meyers has had a solid season
thanks to the myriad of ways he’s been able to produce scores
(7 receiving, 1 rushing and 1 passing). He’s generally not
been able to find a productive day without a touchdown, and that
will likely hold true this week against the Broncos. He’s
a touchdown dependent WR4 this week versus Denver.
If there was any doubt that Rashee Rice is a must target in 2024,
that surely should have been quelled by his 127-yard performance
last week, a new career high. Even in a game where Rice was targeted
less heavily than he’d been recently (6 targets last week), he
still had a big impact. Whether Rice gets that opportunity this
week remains to be seen, as he could be sat with other key starters
such as his QB, Patrick Mahomes. Yet Rice needs 62 yards to reach
a 1000 for the season, and the milestone might tempt Andy Reid
– and perhaps the Chiefs marketing team – to keep Rice on the
field long enough to make a fantasy impact. Those who are short-handed
this week and find themselves having to take a risk may want to
stick with Rice as a big boom/bust candidate, but certainly should
watch his status prior to game time very closely to see if he’s
even active.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, meanwhile, is likely to see significant
action and may be a frequent checkdown target of Blaine Gabbert
in a game where the Chiefs aren’t likely to show much from their
playbook ahead of the post season. Isiah Pacheco has returned
to practice in a limited fashion, and it’s worth watching his
status for the game, but the Chiefs will presumably rest him for
most or all of the game, making Edwards-Helaire a flex consideration
for fielding a lineup this week.
Once upon a time, Blaine Gabbert was the 10th overall pick in
the NFL draft, selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars. 51 touchdowns,
49 interceptions and 13 years later, he is a clipboard holder
behind Patrick Mahomes. The two will switch roles for this game,
but with Gabbert never making a dent in fantasy football during
his starting years and playing against the Chargers A team (granted,
arguably a B team at this point), Blaine is a reasonable sit.
Meanwhile, the aging – and perhaps distracted – Travis
Kelce is in danger of coming up short of 1000 yards receiving
for the first time since 2015. He’s also posted a career
low 10.6 receiving average, and his 5 touchdowns would be tied
for the 2nd lowest total of his career. Drafters will have to
keep all of this in mind in 2024, but Kelce has remained an elite
tight end – at least up until recent weeks – and managers
who find themselves playing for a Championship this week and banking
on Kelce are being dished some bad news: Kelce may play, but even
if he does, he’ll likely leave the game for good once he
hits 1000 yards for the year. Needing just 16 yards to do so,
it’s unlikely he’ll play long enough to be worth starting.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
Ironically, for the first time in at least several weeks, the
Chargers are one of the teams from which fantasy owners will find
a number of potentially valuable assets this week.
Josh Palmer has returned to practice and should resume default
status as the Chargers WR1. Quentin Johnston never grabbed hold
of the opportunity (3-29-0 last week), and while veteran return
man Alex Erickson had a surprise showing versus the Broncos (7-98-0),
Palmer is clearly the best man left standing in the wide receiver
room. Palmer has proven himself to be a worthy flex in the past,
and even with Easton Stick at QB, the sheer number of talented
receivers sitting this week should ensure Palmer no worse than
flex status.
Austin Ekeler may be entering his final game with the Chargers,
and while he has been going out quietly (just 174 total yards
and 0 touchdowns in the last three weeks), the Chargers may be
able to control field position in this game, leading to Ekeler
to a nice sendoff on his way out of Los Angeles. He’s still
handled 14 or more touches in all but two games this year, and
that coupled with unusually respectable conditions makes Ekeler
a solid RB2 this week.
Gerald Everett didn’t quite cash in on his season high 9 targets
last week (4-31-0), but he now has four consecutive games with
at least 8 targets and six straight games with at least 4 receptions.
He’s in the TE1 conversation during a shorthanded week, even with
Palmer coming back.
Easton Stick threw for over 200 yards for the 3rd straight game,
while also posting a season high 31 rushing yards. His mobility
has started to show the last two weeks, with 56 rushing yards
and a touchdown during that span. His limits as a passer do suppress
his ceiling, but with Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, Matthew
Stafford and, yes, Joe Flacco sitting, there’s not a ton
of options this week. Stick’s mobility, coupled with a resting
opponent and the return of one of his wide receivers make him
a high end QB2 this week.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott has been enjoying one of the
best fantasy seasons of his career and he’ll now face a
Washington defense that he threw for 331 yards and four touchdowns
with no interceptions against when these teams played in Week
12. Prescott has been a consistent beast who might not have the
rushing upside of the top QBs, but he’s thrown multiple
touchdown passes in nine of his past 10 games. The Commanders
have given up more points to opposing quarterbacks than any other
team this season, making Prescott one of the highest-floor players
on the board.
The Cowboys’ search for a consistent WR2 has continued
deep into the season and while Brandin Cooks has shown the potential
to be that player, it’s also true that he’s sunk fantasy
managers with quite a few duds to go along with very few truly
difference-making performances on the positive side. Cooks has
seen a bit of a target increase as of late, however, and he’ll
be matching up with a Washington defense that allowed him to catch
four passes for 72 yards and a touchdown in Week 12, so you could
do worse if you’re in a tough spot this week.
Tony Pollard had his best fantasy game of the season when he
faced the Commanders in Week 12, but it came in large part due
to an uncommon six-reception game. Pollard has since been held
to a total of 14 receptions over the five games and he’s
scored just one touchdown during that stretch while failing to
amass over 70 rushing yards in any contest.
The volume continues to be there for the Cowboys’ starting running
back, especially with Rico Dowdle and now Deuce Vaughn injured,
but his efficiency has been pathetic during the second half of
the season.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Robinson had been sidelined for three weeks prior to returning
against the 49ers in Week 17. He was still banged up coming into
the game so it’s not surprising that he didn’t see
his normal workload in the game, especially considering that the
Commanders were behind multiple scores for much of the afternoon,
but we should be expecting that he’ll be back into his lead
role in the Commanders’ backfield in Week 18. The Cowboys
have been a good defense overall this season, but they’ve
been exploitable on the ground at times and the Commanders fed
Robinson 17 touches when they faced the Cowboys in Week 12. Look
for him to be a major focal point of the offense again, with a
good chance to get into the end zone.
Wide receiver Curtis Samuel was targeted a season-high 12 times
when the Commanders last faced the Cowboys, catching nine of those
passes for 100 yards. It’s also worth considering that he delivered
that performance with Sam Howell throwing him the ball, and Howell
is expected to start again here in Week 18. The Washington offense,
particularly their passing game, can be extremely frustrating
at times, but Samuel is a player who has some interesting upside.
Terry McLaurin came through with a touchdown against the 49ers
in Week 17, saving what would have otherwise been another disappointing
fantasy day for the former perennial fantasy WR2. McLaurin has
been held to five or fewer receptions in eight of his past nine
games, though, and has reached the end zone just three times during
that stretch. This has really limited both his floor and his ceiling
for fantasy. McLaurin did see 11 targets come his way when the
Commanders last faced the Cowboys, but he was only able to wrangle
in four of those passes for 50 yards. There are definitely situations
where you’ll still want to start McLaurin, but this has
been a lost season for him and there just aren’t many reasons
to believe that he’ll end the year on a high note.
Fantasy football can sometimes be an extremely frustrating game.
We can analyze all the data, we can predict the usage, and we
can even predict that a player’s team will be in a situation
to score lots of points, and sometimes it still doesn’t
turn out the way we had hoped. That’s been the case with
Buffalo running back James Cook as of late. Cook dominated the
fantasy scoreboard from Weeks 10 through 15, averaging over 21
points per game during that stretch, so it’s a bit baffling
that he’s been held to single-digit PPR points in back-to-back
weeks even though he’s touched the ball 20 and 17 times
in those contests.
It’d be tough to blame a manager who wants to bench Cook
now as we head into Week 18, as he’s coming off of these
back-to-back dud performances, but the reality is that while Cook’s
efficiency has been down, that metric is a lot less sticky than
usage is. And Cook is still getting the usage we'd hope for. The
Dolphins and Bills matchup has the highest over/under on the board
this week so we should be targeting players from this game on
that basis alone, but it’s especially important to target
the players who project to see a lot of touches. That’s
James Cook. It might be scary, but it’s the right play from
a procedural standpoint.
With single-digit PPR points in six of his past seven games,
including four-straight, Bills wide receiver Stefon Diggs should
probably be listed as a “fade,” but it’s oftentimes
tough to bench players who’ve been studs almost their entire
careers and who’ve only suddenly fallen into a slump. Despite
his struggles, Diggs has continued to see a respectable weekly
target share, which should still give us hope that he can turn
things around. Not only that, but Diggs obliterated the Dolphins
when these teams played back in Week 4 as he caught six passes
for 120 yards and three touchdowns, marking by far his biggest
fantasy day of the season.
Stefon Diggs’ disappointing stretch should theoretically
correspond to an increase in production for teammate Davis, but
that certainly has not been the case. In fact, Davis has two or
fewer receptions in six of his past eight games. His other two
games were big fantasy performances, but that type of inconsistency
just cannot be trusted in fantasy championships unless you’re
in a terribly desperate situation and are simply swinging for
the fences, hoping for one of the signature Gabe Davis “couldn’t
have seen it coming but happy it did” monster fantasy performances.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Raheem Mostert missed practice on Thursday and seems to be trending
toward not playing again, which should clear the way for Achane
to lead the Miami backfield again this week. Achane carried the
ball 14 times for 107 yards in a blowout loss to the Ravens in
Week 17, adding four receptions for 30 yards and a touchdown in
the receiving game. This type of workload and production, especially
in a game where his team is behind by multiple scores throughout,
is a great example of Achane’s elite ceiling and floor combination
and it’s why he needs to be in fantasy lineups, especially if
Mostert sits.
Dolphins wide receiver Jaylen Waddle missed Week 17 with a high
ankle sprain and is looking unlikely to play again in what is
a very important divisional matchup. If he does play, this is
not a particularly great matchup for him as he’ll be up
against a Buffalo defense that held him to just four receptions
for 46 yards on five targets back in Week 5. Waddle had, however,
produced four straight double-digit fantasy performances before
injuring his ankle against the Cowboys in Week 16, so if he gets
in a full practice late in the week then it could be tough to
bench him.
While Mike McDaniel seems to have found his quarterback in Tua
Tagovailoa this season, fantasy managers might want to look elsewhere
for their own championship run. While Tua has been mostly “fine”
as of late, he’s failed to deliver any true high-scoring
games since the team’s Week 10 bye. While Tua has averaged
a respectable 263 yards passing per game during this stretch,
he’s thrown a total of just nine touchdowns over these past
seven games and he’s just not enough of a contributor with
his legs to make up for the lack of touchdowns. The Dolphins have
been extremely successful with their running game near the goal
line and that’s likely to continue in this game, making
Tua just a QB2.
