While Reed (chest) popped up on Tuesday’s injury report as a
limited participant, let’s assume he suits up. The rookie led
the team in yards (96) this past Sunday, and he also racked up
his fifth touchdown of the season. Reed has become a focal point
of the offense, and with Aaron Jones (knee) and Luke Musgrave
(abdomen) unlikely to play, the Packers will need their remaining
playmakers to pick up the slack. If Reed can’t go, this designation
applies even more to Doubs, who trails only Tyreek Hill and Courtland
Sutton in receiving touchdowns this year. The Nevada product has
scored in four of his last five games and set season highs in
receptions (9) and receiving yards (95) when these two teams locked
up back in Week 4. Both warrant WR3 consideration.
Coming off the first 300-yard game of his career, Love has been
looking more and more comfortable running the offense in recent
weeks. Improved pass protection has been a big part of that, and
it’s something he did not enjoy when the Lions sacked him
five times and generally made life uncomfortable for him on Sept.
28. Love did finish that game with 246 yards passing and 2 total
TDs, which is passable production. Still, under other circumstances
he’d be listed as a fade. With the RBs banged up, however,
the Packers are unlikely to be able to run the ball effectively,
so Love may get a lot of chances to rack up yardage, even if it’s
in garbage time. He’s a risk/reward play.
With Jones and Emanuel Wilson (shoulder) injured, Dillon figures
to get most of the work on Thanksgiving with newly re-signed Patrick
Taylor sprinkled in on passing downs. The bruising back averaged
just 2.1 yards per carry versus a suspect Chargers D on Sunday,
so don’t expect big numbers against Detroit’s fifth-ranked run
defense. You can still trot Dillon out as a flex candidate based
on what should be a high snap count, but this has 15 touches for
45 yards written all over it.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
Put bluntly, the Lions are a more physical team than the Packers.
They proved it back in Week 4 when they ran for 211 yards and
3 TDs. Why deviate from that formula with both Montgomery and
Gibbs available on Turkey Day? During Detroit’s four-game
winning streak over Green Bay, dating back to 2021, the veteran
has averaged 202 yards and 1.25 TDs per game. Don’t expect
much more than that.
If you told fantasy managers that a Washington running back had
made 13 receptions over his past two games, they’d almost certainly
assume that his name was Antonio Gibson. But while he’s struggled
to get things going on the ground as of late, the Commanders back
who’s been making huge plays in the passing game has actually
been Brian Robinson Jr. Robinson played on a season-high 78 percent
of Washington’s offensive snaps this past week, compiling 131
total yards on the day - his second game of over 125 total yards
in a row.
The Cowboys’ defense has been excellent this season, but there
have been times when they’ve struggled to shut down opposing running
backs. Most recently, the Panthers duo of Chuba Hubbard and Miles
Sanders was able to compile 107 rushing yards against the Cowboys
despite losing the game 33-10. We should expect Washington to
keep things closer than that, which would allow Robinson to remain
a big part of the offense throughout the afternoon. Don’t expect
him to continue this crazy receiving production, but the fact
that he’s not just always coming off of the field on passing downs
is a great sign for his fantasy potential.
While McLaurin has struggled to put together any big numbers
for fantasy over his past three games, the fact remains that he’s
been by far the favorite target for Washington quarterback Sam
Howell. McLaurin has been targeted an average of over nine times
per game over his past six contests, making him a good bet to
see enough targets to remain a viable fantasy starter this week,
even against a tough Dallas defense. There’s a possibility
that we see another shootout in this game, or even the Washington
offense playing from behind and being forced to pass more than
they’d otherwise like to, so there’s some potential
for a big game from McLaurin on Thanksgiving.
Although he has two touchdown receptions over his past three
games, Washington wide receiver Jahan Dotson has managed just
seven receptions during that stretch. In fact, he’s been
held to four or fewer receptions in all but three games this season
and he’s only eclipsed 70 yards in a game once. Dotson and
the Commanders matched up against the Cowboys twice in 2022 and
he managed just eight total targets, and six catches for 115 receiving
yards with one touchdown in those contests. Dallas’ pass
defense has actually been much better this season than they were
in 2022, so it’s tough to imagine that he’s going
to significantly improve upon those numbers.
Curtis Samuel had five total catches for a measly 36 yards in
his two games against Dallas in 2022. While he was a bigger part
of the offense early this season than he was in 2022, it’s
still worth noting that he hasn’t gone over 25 receiving
yards in a game since Week 5. He does get some usage in the running
game, but Samuel just doesn’t see the ball often enough
to be a viable fantasy option against a good defense like the
Cowboys.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
The Cowboys didn’t need much passing game production in
order to completely control the game and walk away with another
blowout victory over a bad team in Week 11. Still, quarterback
Dak Prescott was able to put together his fourth-straight multiple-passing-touchdown
performance against a Panthers defense that quietly ranks as a
bottom-three matchup for opposing quarterbacks.
Prescott now faces a Washington defense that ranks as the second-best
matchup for QBs, and who just got lit up for 246 yards and three
touchdowns by the Giants’ Tommy DeVito in Week 11. The Commanders
have allowed opposing quarterbacks to compile two or more total
touchdowns in all but two games this season, making them one of
the highest floor options for opposing quarterbacks while also
providing an excellent ceiling as they’ve conceded two four-touchdown
days to the position as well. As long as the Commanders offense
can put some points on the board, Prescott is in a great spot
to compile some big numbers here in Week 12.
It seemed like an eternity since Pollard last turned in a useful
fantasy performance, but he finally got things going this past
week in the Cowboys’ blowout victory over the Panthers.
While it wasn’t a huge output, Pollard nevertheless delivered
a very solid day, rushing for 61 yards while scoring his first
touchdown since all the way back in Week 1, and he added an additional
bonus with four catches in the passing game.
It’s tough to truly trust Pollard right now given the shockingly
low floor that he’s been providing, but the truth is that
he does still have some serious potential for big games as long
as the Cowboys are able to continue moving the ball. He’s
been quite unlucky in the touchdown department throughout the
season, so don’t be surprised if he gets back into the end
zone again this week.
Cooks absolutely crushed in Week 10 when he went for 173 yards
and a touchdown on nine receptions - all of which were season
highs - against an underrated Giants defense. That caused many
fantasy managers to hit the waiver wire, acquire him, and even
start him this past week against the Panthers. Of course, Cooks
was back to his usual self in Week 11 when he was targeted just
four times, making three receptions for 42 yards and failing to
reach the end zone in the process.
While fantasy managers were burned this past week, they might
be looking at this matchup against the Commanders as a serious
potential bounce-back week for Cooks. After all, the Commanders
have given up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing
wide receivers this season. However, while the matchup might be
enticing on paper, the truth is that Cooks himself just doesn’t
see enough usage to make him a startable option in normal leagues.
He’s been held under a 20 percent target share in all but
one game this season and while he played on a season-high 83 percent
of the Cowboys’ snaps this past week, he saw just 11 percent
of the team’s targets during that contest. It’s understandable
if you need to start Cooks in leagues with very deep starting
rosters, but otherwise, he should remain on benches until we see
him doing more than running wind sprints in back-to-back weeks.
With the 49ers’ offensive weapons returning to full health,
Brock Purdy has put up 149 and 158 passer ratings, tossing 3 touchdowns
over the last two weeks. Purdy continues to be asked to only make
25 to 30 throws per game, having only surpassed 30 pass attempts
twice this year, but there’s just so much talent that the
efficiency has been about as good as one could imagine. As such,
Purdy is now averaging a league leading 9.7 yards per attempt.
The Seahawks have made life difficult for most quarterbacks since
Week 4, only giving up over 20 points once during that time (Sam
Howell, Week 10). While Purdy’s ceiling is limited due to
his managed share of responsibility in this offense, it’s
hard to imagine even a solid defense like the Seahawks having
enough talent to put the brakes on this 49er machine. Purdy should
again be a reasonable play as a QB1 up against Seattle this week.
Even in a wipe out last week, it continued to hold that Mitchell
is just not seeing enough touches to warrant more than a McCaffrey
handcuff or deep bench stash. There’s no reason to expect
that to change against Seattle, so Mitchell can safely remain
tucked away as an emergency cord to pull if McCaffrey goes down.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29
The 49ers have been tough on opposing QBs, giving up just a 78
passer rating and collecting 27 sacks through ten games. They’ve
also only surrendered 6.1 yards per attempt, so it may be a bit
surprising to see that they’ve surrendered the tenth most
points to opposing wide receivers. This has a lot to do with volume,
as the 49ers have the third best point differential in the league
and, as such, their opponents have been forced to throw a lot
(39 times per contest). Such volume creates plenty of wide receiver
targets: In each of the last four weeks, an opponent receiver
has enjoyed double digit targets versus the Niners.
The Seahawks justifiably enter this game as underdogs, with a
lot of potential for negative game script. Additionally, the team
being down their top running back, it wouldn’t be surprising to
see Geno Smith and Drew Lock - if Geno cannot finish the game
– combine to throw over 40 times. As it is, the Seahawks have
averaged 35 pass attempts this year. Metcalf has seen double digit
targets in two of the last four games and just missed out on a
third such outing last week (9 targets). Tyler Lockett has also
seen his targets on the rise, going for double digit targets two
weeks ago and having at least 7 in each of the last four games.
Both talented receivers are plausibly WR2’s in a volume-based
match up with San Francisco.
Kenneth Walker is doubtful this week, and he’s likely on a path
to miss multiple games. The 49ers come to town to begin what looks
to be a rough four-game stretch for the Seahawks backfield, and
Zach Charbonnet is poised to inherit the task this week.
The 2nd round rookie running back is adept as a physical runner
and as a pass catcher (4.9 yards per rush, 8% break tackle rate
on rushes and an 83% catch rate), so while he appears to lack
the explosiveness and elusiveness of Walker, he does have talent
worthy of an every-down back. That’s likely the role he
sees this week, sans Walker, and so the only question –
a big one – is whether quantity amounts to quality. The
49ers have yet to allow a hundred rushing yards or 50 receiving
yards to a running back, so it will be a tall task for Charbonnet
to pull out a Top 25 performance on Thursday night.
Geno Smith was forced from last week’s game versus the
Rams, but then was essentially forced to re-enter due to Drew
Lock’s struggles. It seemed that the Seahawks would have
rather kept him on the sideline, rather than risk him suffering
further injury. Nonetheless, Smith has managed to practice all
week and is set to go versus the 49ers. How good of a condition
he is in remains to be seen, and the 49ers pass rush is extremely
unforgiving, especially with Chase Young on board. In 2023, Smith
simply hasn’t had enough QB1-worthy outings to justify starting
him while he’s both banged up and facing a difficult defense.
Devon Achane suffered a knee injury almost immediately upon his
return to the lineup in Week 11, leaving Raheem Mostert with nearly
sole control of the Miami backfield during the game. The end result
wasn’t the greatest fantasy output with the Dolphins’ offense
struggling to put points on the board against the Raiders, but
Mostert managers should still have some confidence in knowing
that the running back was trusted to take 22 carries during the
game and he looks poised to have a strong touch share again here
in Week 12 as the Dolphins head north to face the Jets. Miami
has allowed 10 different running backs to score 13 or more PPR
fantasy points already this season, making Mostert a nice floor
play to go along with his usual high ceiling.
Tua Tagovailoa has been a borderline QB1 on the season, but it’s
fair to say that the Dolphins’ offense as a whole has been
struggling as of late. After being one of the hottest offenses
in the league to start the season, they’ve now scored just
41 points over their past two games. They now face a Jets defense
that ranks as a bottom-10 matchup for opposing quarterbacks this
season. New York allowed Josh Allen to throw for three touchdowns
this past week, but they had previously held every other quarterback
they’ve faced to two or fewer touchdowns. That included
matchups against Josh Allen (earlier in the season), Dak Prescott,
Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert.
Tua is unlikely to be completely shut down in this game, but
this matchup is not an easy one and we have to lower him in our
weekly rankings given that his usual ceiling might not be entirely
there.
With Tua being bumped down due to the matchup, it also makes
sense that the Dolphins’ WR2, Jaylen Waddle, should probably
be avoided if at all possible here in Week 12. While he still
ranks inside WR3 range, it’s been a very disappointing season
overall for Waddle who has now failed to reach even 10 PPR fantasy
points in either of his past two games. He’s still seeing
a relatively strong target share, but the end results just have
not been there and therefore fantasy managers need to strongly
consider whether someone who’s normally on their bench might
be a better fit in the starting lineup this week over Waddle.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
The Jets’ passing game has been an absolute nightmare this season
and with Zach Wilson being benched this week in favor of Tim Boyle,
it’s a tough sell to put Garrett Wilson as a “favorite.” Even
given the tumultuous quarterback situation, though, Wilson has
seen such an excellent target share this season that he’s remained
a solid WR2 in almost every game. Wilson hasn’t been targeted
fewer than seven times in a game since all the way back in Week
1 and he’s seen 12 or more targets in five of his past seven contests.
It remains to be seen whether or not he and Boyle will have any
sort of a connection, but the overall offensive approach really
shouldn’t be much different given that Wilson is by far the best
pass-catcher on the roster. Additionally, the Dolphins offer a
top-10 matchup for opposing wide receivers this season, making
Wilson a solid option overall in this contest.
Running back Breece Hall has been able to cling to fantasy relevance
primarily due to his plays in the passing game, but it’s
tough to not be concerned that he’s now averaging just over
31 rushing yards per game with under a 2.5 yards per carry average
over his past five contests. Hall now faces a Miami defense that
has given up the third-fewest receiving yards to opposing running
backs this season and hasn’t allowed a running back to exceed
13 fantasy points against them in a game since all the way back
in Week 5.
It’s tough to bench Hall given the workload he’s
been seeing and his high usage in the passing game, which should
continue especially if the Jets fall behind on the scoreboard
in this game, but this is a sneaky bad matchup for him.
While it appears obvious that Zach Wilson is not the answer at
quarterback, the move to Tim Boyle also doesn’t inspire a lot
of confidence that things are suddenly going to take a dramatic
shift for the better in the Jets’ offense. Boyle took over for
Wilson mid-game in Week 11 against the Bills, but managed to throw
for just 33 yards on 14 attempts, including an interception and
no touchdowns. Sure, he now has a full week to prepare, but this
Jets offense is very likely to remain one of the league’s worst
at least until Aaron Rodgers returns.
For the most part, Christian Kirk has continued to produce low-end
WR2 numbers despite the ugliness that has been Trevor Lawrence
for most of the season. The return of WR Zay Jones may limit some
of Kirk’s production, but Kirk has established himself as the
team’s No.1 outside option, despite Calvin Ridley’s breakout performance
last week. The Texans have a classic bend-but-don’t-break pass
defense this season, as they are in the bottom seven in the league
with surrendering passing yards, but the 10 passing TDs they have
given up is 3rd in the league. So, Kirk could have a nice game
in terms of yardage but may find getting in the end zone a more
difficult task. You could do a lot worse than Christian Kirk as
your WR2.
Heading into the 2023 season, I’m sure very few people predicted
that Evan Engram would be neck and neck with Kirk for the team
lead in targets. His 74 targets are not only second on the team
behind Kirk’s 77, but he’s third in the league at the tight end
position in targets behind only T.J. Hockenson (102) and Travis
Kelce (81). That kind of high-volume role is pure gold at the
position. Keep starting Engram as your TE1.
Both Lawrence and Ridley had their best games last week against
Tennessee, but I will go with what both have shown for most of
the season in terms of predicting this week. When these teams
met in Week 3, neither Lawrence nor Ridley justified the top-10
ranking both had heading into that contest. Lawrence had a Trevor
Lawrence kinda day (279/1/1), and Ridley’s performance was
another in a long line of ugly games for him in 2023 (3/40/0).
It’s tough to look at what both have done this year and
suggest starting them with any confidence. It’s one of those
things where you hope for the best but prepare for the worst.
That’s no way to field a good fantasy football team, but
it’s what we got this season with Lawrence and Ridley. We
can only hope that they have a repeat performance from last week,
but I’m not too optimistic. Personally, I have a vested
interest in Lawrence because I’m forced to start him every
week now that Kirk Cousins is done. And I’m not comfortable
with that option.
Fade: N/A
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Nico Collins started the 2023 season red hot. Through this year’s
first four games, Collins grabbed 22 passes for 428 yards and
three TDs. His play has leveled off since, but he remains a top
option in one of the league’s most dynamic passing attacks.
I expect C.J. Stroud and this Texans passing game to light up
the scoreboard this week. The Jaguars have one of the league’s
worst pass defenses in terms of passing yards and TD receptions
surrendered, so expect Collins and the crew to contribute to your
fantasy team in a positive way in Week 12.
Dalton Schultz’s 5 TDs are tied for the second most TD
receptions for tight ends, but his 39 receptions place him 12th
at the position. That kind of efficiency is usually not sustainable
over the course of an entire season, and TDs are difficult to
predict. And as good as Stroud has been, there’s a limit
to how many mouths he can feed in this dynamic passing attack
during a given game. But Schultz is hot right now, and so you
should continue staring him until he is not. Just be mindful of
the incredible efficiency he’s shown and know that it could
dissipate rather quickly and without notice.
As I mentioned above, there will be an odd man out each week
in this offense. It’s routinely been Robert Woods, but he could
be a desperation play this week with Noah Brown’s status up in
the air. More than likely, Woods won’t give you much even if he
does see an uptick in snaps.
Let’s start with this: the decision to oust Matt Canada
as offensive coordinator injects an element of uncertainty into
Pittsburgh’s offense. Quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan will
reportedly call plays under the direction of interim OC Eddie
Faulkner. Sounds like a mess. Whoever runs the offense would do
well to get Warren the ball more often. Over the last three games,
Warren has turned 43 combined touches into 368 yards and a pair
of touchdowns. He deserves to be a featured weapon. We’ll
see if new OC agrees. Plug him into your lineup as an RB3 with
upside.
The passing game has done next to nothing over the last month,
and that level of impotency has spread to the receivers. Only
Johnson has shown glimpses of production, catching 15 passes in
Weeks 8 and 9 before catching just three of 12 targeted balls
during the past two weeks. If the training wheels are going to
come off Kenny Pickett a bit under the new regime, the steady
veteran seems a more likely beneficiary, especially in a game
like this where points figure to be at a premium. If you want
to try Johnson as a WR3 he might deliver.
While Pickens has actually led the team in receiving the past
two games, that amounts to stat lines of 3-45-0 and 4-38-0, respectively.
His last impactful effort came on Oct. 22 against the Rams when
he caught five passes for 107 yards. The second-year pro is more
of a vertical threat than Johnson, and we have no idea how much
the Steelers will want to push the ball downfield with a first-time
starting QB on the other side of the field. Maybe Pickens will
give you something as a flex or low-end WR3, but we’re four
weeks and counting from the last time he did.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Not to state the obvious, but the loss of Joe Burrow (wrist)
changes everything. The tandem of Mixon and Chase remain no-brainers
for the time being based on their expected roles and talent level.
That could change. One player that may see an uptick in opportunities
is Boyd. The veteran has primarily operated underneath this year,
averaging a career-low 9.3 yards per catch, and he lacks the speed
and upside of Chase or Tee Higgins. Boyd is reliable, though,
and you cannot overlook the importance of a safety net for an
inexperienced QB like Jake Browning. Boyd as a WR3/flex could
pay off.
It’s too early to know whether Higgins will return from a hamstring
injury that cost him the last two games. Even if he does, he’ll
be stepping into a new world. The loss of Burrow will have a ripple
effect throughout the offense, and on paper Higgins appears as
though he could be least apt to weather it. The Clemson alum is
the resident deep threat, whereas Chase and Boyd are more comfortable
working on shorter routes. That isn’t to suggest that Higgins
is incapable of contributing. He absolutely is. It’s more a case
of not knowing how his role will change. That makes him a dicey
option.
Adam Thielen is the brightest bulb in an otherwise dark and dreary
Carolina Panther offense. His 97 targets are nearly double the
next closest teammate. The fact that the Panthers must rely so
heavily on a 33-year-old receiver is indicative of this team’s
lack of playmakers elsewhere. Thielen keeps delivering, so keep
starting him because the rest of Carolina’s cupboards are
empty.
Perhaps if you were to combine the stats of Chuba Hubbard and
Miles Sanders you would have a serviceable RB. But separately,
both RBs leave a lot to be desired and should be nowhere near
your starting lineup. Sanders, especially, has opened some eyes—but
not in a good way. Some pegged him as a sleeper this season after
arriving in Carolina from Philly. He had the most carries (18)
and the most yards (72) in the season opener but hasn’t
eclipsed either since then. The team eventually started incorporating
Hubbard more into the mix, but he appears to be Miles Sanders
2.0. Stay away from this backfield.
And what can we say about the struggles of Bryce Young that hasn’t
already been discussed and dissected? It appears that he has a
lot of growing up to do when it comes to improved play at the
NFL level. Frankly, it’s painful watching him lead this offense.
Giving up D.J. Moore as part of the trade with Chicago to secure
the top overall pick is limiting the growth of this young QB.
They will need more than just Adam Thielen if they are to have
their young signal caller justify such high draft capital.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Over each of the past two games, Derrick Henry has not rushed
for more than 38 yards. But now he gets to go up against the league’s
24th-ranked rush defense that has given up the most rushing TDs
this season—16. If he struggles this week, it will be more of
a sign that this offense has completely come off the rails. With
the rookie Will Levis under center, this team has little choice
but to rely on Henry. Let’s hope that necessity bears some fruit
this week with a solid outing.
DeAndre Hopkins’ Week 7 performance of 128 receiving yards
and 3 scores brought back memories of his domination while playing
in Houston. But his 146 receiving yards and 1 TD combined over
the previous three games illustrates the up and down nature of
his fantasy value in 2023. By the numbers, it appears the Panthers
are tough against the pass (6th ranked pass defense), but that
could be more a sign of teams being able to run all over them.
Either way, it’s tough to rely on Hopkins for anything more
than a high-end WR3 this season.
Will Levis is not quite a “thing” in fantasy just
yet. The more pass attempts he has in a game, the more he tends
to struggle, both in terms of his completion percentage and overall
play. But a simple eyeball test reveals that Levis has that certain
“it.” If Tennessee does something to bolster their
playmakers in the next season or so, Levin just might end up being
a solid QB2 in fantasy as soon as 2024. Stay tuned.
Chris Olave enters Week 12 with the hope of scoring a TD in three
straight games for the first time in his career. The first half
of his Week 10 performance left his managers perplexed, as he
got off to a slow start with one target and one catch for 15 yards.
But he finished strong after QB Jameis Winston entered the game,
ending the contest with 6 catches for 94 yards and a score.
Atlanta’s defense has been quite generous when it comes
to surrendering receiving TDs, as they rank in the bottom-five
in that category with 17. As good as Olave is, however, the QB
play in New Orleans has been less than stellar. Olave’s
59.6 percent catch rate ranks 150th in the league, thanks in large
part to the struggles under center. I’d love to see how
much Olave’s numbers would improve If he got better play
from the QB position. But for now, Olave remains one of the most
solid WR2 fantasy options in the league.
With WR Michael Thomas placed on IR this week, Rashid Shaheed
gets to prove that he’s not just a one-trick pony who is only
best at running go routes. He moves up a spot in the team’s pecking
order, which should increase his volume in the pass game. He had
a career-high nine targets in Week 10 but could only muster 24
yards on 5 receptions. That efficiency will have to improve, of
course, if fantasy managers are to trust him. How Shaheed performs
now that defenses will give him added attention remains to be
seen. You should exercise restraint when formulating expectations
for him this week, but he should be a viable flex option.
Derek Carr has battled a number of injuries so far this season,
but he has yet to miss a start. As of this writing, he remains
in concussion protocol with the expectation that he should be
removed in time to play this week. In Carr’s absence in the second
half, Jameis Winston had the expected Jameis Winston stat: 13
of 25 for 122 yards, with 2 TDs and 2 INTs. None of it matters
because neither is a viable play this week.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Head coach Arthur Smith implied a few weeks ago that part of
Bijan Robinson’s role in the offense is that of a decoy. Excuse
me? This guy is using a top-10 draft pick and one of the most
dynamic runners in the game as a decoy? Amazing. Here’s proof
that he’s being used as a decoy: Robinson has played in 66 percent
of the team’s offensive snaps; Tyler Allgeier, 36 percent. Yet,
they both have 125 rush attempts. For Robinson’s sake, and that
of his managers, we can only hope that at some point this season,
the coaching staff understands fully what they have and utilize
him accordingly. But it’s criminal that Robinson has the same
number of carries as Allgeier. Criminal. New Orleans boasts a
top-10 defense overall but is only middle of the pack in stopping
the run. Despite Atlanta’s complete ineptitude on knowing how
to use him, Robinson remains a low-end RB1 for his potential alone.
Reports are the Falcons will go back to QB Desmond Ridder after
kicking the tires on Taylor Heinicke the previous two games. Neither
has been effective enough to make Drake London and Kyle Pitts
consistently startable options in fantasy this year. London hasn’t
scored since Week 4 but posted his best game of the year overall
in Week 6 against Washington. His targets and catches have declined
each game since, with his 3-catch, 36-yard performance in Week
10 being his latest clunker.
As for Pitts, his performance so far this season continues to
affirm that he’s just “a guy” at the TE position. We don’t see
much of the “unicorn” player we were promised when he was drafted
4th overall in 2021. Is that because of the questionable QB play
he’s gotten so far in his career, or is it because he’s simply
not as dominant as many thought? Could be somewhere in between.
But perhaps the biggest indictment of Pitts is his teammate, Jonnu
Smith, has more yards and TDs than he does. Either way, both London
and Pitts will find it difficult to solve the riddle that is New
Orleans’ defense, which is top-10 against the pass. And the Saints
defensive unit is opportunistic and creates turnovers, as they
have the second-most interceptions in the league with 12. Don’t
expect much from either of these players this week.
I’m sure Tyler Allgeier is a fine red-blooded American,
but the fact that he’s a relevant topic of discussion in
fantasy football is cringe worthy. He has a bigger role in this
offense than most people expected or wanted, and certainly a big
enough role to limit Robinson’s ceiling. But he remains
a fringe option in fantasy and only relevant in larger leagues.
Chris Godwin is banged up a bit heading into this contest against
the Colts with an apparent knee issue. His play has leveled off
recently, as he’s posted only 12 catches over the previous
three games; this after securing 17 catches over the three games
prior to that stretch. Plus, his one TD reception on the season
is troubling. Keep tabs on Godwin’s availability. But even
if he does play, he’s only a flex option at this point.
Meanwhile, Baker Mayfield is a desperation play this week and
only a viable option in bigger leagues. But it should be noted
that Mayfield has had moments this season where he’s been
a solid option, and he’s even posted at least 250 passing
yards in two of his last three games.
Cade Otton has a low floor and a low ceiling—his 6-catch, 70-yard,
2-TD game in Week 9 notwithstanding. The Colts are in the bottom-ten
in the league in defending the TE position, but Otton may not
be the player best suited to take advantage of that. Keep him
on your bench or on the waiver wire this week.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
The past two games, Josh Downs has only three catches for 50
yards and zero scores. Part of that was due to his early exit
in Week 9, but this latest stretch is in stark contrast to his
previous four games when he introduced himself to the fantasy
world with a combined 23 receptions for 315 yards and 2 TDs. We
shall see if he’s able to rekindle that level of production
moving forward. If so, he will make himself a consistent WR3/flex
option for the balance of the season. This week presents a solid
opportunity for him, as the Buccaneers defense is near the bottom
when it comes to passing yards and TD passes allowed. Downs is
a flex, at best, this week. But you should keep tabs on his production
moving forward to pinpoint the game to insert him in your lineup.
The Zack Moss hype train was in full force during the first half
of the season. But now that Jonathan Taylor is back in the mix
and leading this running game, Moss should remain firmly tucked
on your bench. I wouldn’t suggest dropping him because he’s
shown that he’s capable of filling in as a lead back. But
should Taylor miss time moving forward, Moss is a plug-and-play
option.
He started the season off extremely slowly, but Rhamondre Stevenson
has really started to deliver for fantasy managers as of late.
Over his past five games, Stevenson has averaged over 15 fantasy
points per game. Perhaps most interesting is that he managed to
handle 23 total touches this past week in what was an extremely
low-scoring game against the Colts. While it’s hard to argue
that the Patriots should continue to do what they did in a game
that saw them score just six points, it’s also reasonable
to assume that they won’t just completely abandon the player
who was the focal point of the offense just a week ago.
The Giants are also a good matchup for opposing running backs,
as they’ve given up the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the
position this season. Most recently, we’ve seen big games from
Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and Brian Robinson against this defense,
all of whom are operating as bell-cow backs in bad offenses, just
like Stevenson.
Aside from Rhamondre Stevenson, the only other player in the
New England offense who fantasy managers should be concerning
themselves with right now is wide receiver Demario Douglas. Douglas
has really become the focus of this passing game, which is admittedly
one of the worst in the league, but any player who’s seeing
six or more targets per game has to be on the fantasy radar. Douglas
hasn’t yet delivered a true difference-making fantasy performance,
but he’s averaging over 11 fantasy points per game over
his past four contests, making him a decent WR3/Flex option for
those in tough spots.
The Patriots continue to give touches to Ezekiel Elliott most
weeks, but this “goal line back” role that many are
still coveting to some degree just has not come to fruition much
on the field. Elliott has scored just two touchdowns this season
and he’s been under 12 PPR fantasy points in every contest.
Sure, he might be limiting Stevenson’s upside, but he really
is not a viable option as a fantasy starter himself right now.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
The Giants’ offense as a whole remains one of the worst
in the league, but running back Saquon Barkley remains one of
the most consistent high-floor plays in the league while also
showing off the ability to have the occasional huge spike week
performance as we saw from him during the Giants’ somewhat
surprising Week 11 road win over the Commanders. Barkley has touched
the ball at least 14 times in every game he’s played this
season, including at least three receptions in all but one contest,
and he’s now averaged over 5.0 yards per carry in three
straight games. The Patriots aren’t a particularly great
matchup for opposing running backs, but they’re also not
one to be worried about and Barkley should be in line for his
usual high-floor/high-upside combination.
We finally saw some life out of the Giants’ passing game
this past week when Tommy DeVito lit up the Commanders’
defense with his first career three-touchdown performance while
also reaching a career-high with 246 passing yards. The Commanders
have been an extraordinarily giving matchup for opposing quarterbacks
this season, though, so don’t look for DeVito to match those
numbers again this week in what should be a low-scoring game against
the Patriots. New England is a bottom-10 matchup for opposing
quarterbacks and DeVito himself is just way too risky to be trusted
by fantasy managers in this type of environment.
Alexander Mattison and Ty Chandler combined for 153 rushing yards
and 5 receptions (35 yards) against the Broncos last week, and
the only saving grace for the Broncos was that they didn’t surrender
a touchdown to either back. Still, the Broncos have surrendered
9 rushing and 4 receiving touchdowns to backs this year, and that’s
on top of giving up the most rushing yards in the league.
Ford is averaging 19 touches over the last three weeks, and Kareem
Hunt has had double digit rushing attempts in each of the last
six weeks, while he had a five-game rushing touchdown streak broken
last week. Both running backs have been capable of producing flex
level value, if not better, simultaneously, and against the Broncos
they are reasonably both RB2’s. Ford, seeing greater volume,
has RB1 upside this week.
Meanwhile, the story holds that David Njoku’s receiving role
in the Browns offense is greater without Deshaun Watson than with.
Last week, Dorian Thompson-Robinson targeted Njoku an incredible
15 times! Thompson-Robinson is set to start again this week, and
while efficiency will be lacking without Deshaun Watson on the
field, the vast improvement in targets for Njoku coupled with
a Broncos defense that has been unable to stop TE’s (most points
allowed) make this a great spot for the Browns TE.
Deshaun Watson sitting may be good for David Njoku, but nor for
Amari Cooper. In four games sans Watson, Cooper has had two of
his three lowest yardage outputs, and his other one came in a
game where Watson left due to injury after just 5 passes. To make
matters worse, Cooper should see a whole lot of Patrick Surtain
II this week. It’s tough to sit a player with Cooper’s
talent, but the stars are not aligning here.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
In a game that is poised to be a low-scoring grind, Javonte Williams
may present the Broncos best chance for victory. They’ll
likely attempt to play ball control and hope for miscues that
lead to turnovers from the Browns rookie QB Thompson-Robinson.
The Browns stout defense is at it’s weakest against the
run, allowing the 10th least points to RBs.
Williams saw a dip in touches last week, but is still averaging
21.5 over the last month. He could very well flirt with 20 again
in this one, and while he probably doesn’t have big upside
against the Browns, he has a respectable floor and could produce
a flex-level performance in a close game.
The Browns have given up the 2nd fewest points to QBs. Five of
the ten quarterbacks they’ve faced haven’t even broken
double digits. Wilson, a mid-QB2 so far this year, is an easy
sit this week against an elite Browns defense.
Courtland Sutton, meanwhile, has kept rolling and now has a touchdown
reception in each of the last five games. He’s currently
ranked 18th among wideouts in points per game (12.0). With the
Browns having been really stiff against the passing game, it comes
as no surprise that they’ve been unkind to wide receivers.
Cleveland has likewise given up the 2nd fewest points to wideouts.
They’ve also surrendered the 4th fewest receiving touchdowns
to opposing receivers (6), which is not good news for Sutton’s
bread and butter this year. Averaging just 50 yards per game,
without a touchdown Sutton’s production is likely to be
very sterile.
Kyren Williams returns to action this week, and if there was
any doubt that he’d be playing a major role in his first game
back, that question was answered with the release of fellow running
back Darrell Henderson. Kyren has plenty of RB1 potential against
the Cardinals this week.
Matthew Stafford showed well in his return, earning ‘legend’
status from his head coach, and that boded well for Puca Nacua
(5-70-1, plus 1-7-0 rushing). Unfortunately, Nacua hurt his shoulder
late in the contest, and at the moment his status needs to be
carefully watched. If he shows progress as the week goes on, he
reasonably will become a must start.
Cooper Kupp, meanwhile, never had much of a chance to shine with
Stafford last week, as he left the game early with an ankle injury.
He missed the team’s opening practice and things are not
looking great for him being available this week. His status needs
to be carefully monitored.
While the Cardinals rush defense has been scorched by running
backs for over 110 rushing yards per game and 15 combined touchdowns,
Freeman is not likely to see a significant amount of action with
Kyren Williams returning, and can be sat and probably released
for an option with better potential at the position.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Kyler Murray is still getting into game shape, but has already
posted two top-12 performances to start his belated 2023 season.
The Rams are tied for the league lead in rushing touchdowns allowed
to quarterbacks (4) and have surrendered 206 rushing yards to
the position. Murray punched in a rushing touchdown in each of
his first two games, and there’s a solid chance he extends
that streak versus the Rams. Murray’s legs make him a QB1
to fire up this week.
The Rams have surrendered five double-digit fantasy performances
to tight ends this year, including 12.6 to rookie Luke Musgrave
two weeks ago. Trey McBride has emerged since Zach Ertz went down
with an injury, and posted a career high 131-yard outing two weeks
ago upon Murray’s return. This is a great spot for McBride to
have another strong outing, and he’s an easy TE1 this week.
The connection that Kyler Murray and Marquise Brown had in 2022
has not been there as Brown has just 3 receptions on 9 targets
in Murray’s first two starts. There’s still reason
to believe the spark can reignite, especially as Murray gets more
and more into game condition, but there is certainly reason for
pause. The Rams are respectable against wideouts (19th most points),
so they are unlikely to make it easy for Murray and Brown to get
on the same page. Brown is probably more of a deep league starter
until the two start clicking.
James Conner has been solid on the ground in his first two games
back from injury, posting 135 yards on 30 rushes. But he hasn’t
reached the end zone in either game, and that’s surely in
part due to Kyler Murray’s ability down by the goal line.
Conner has also seen just 2 receptions for 1 yard since his return.
As a matter of fact, strangely, Conner has only seen 5 receptions
in his last six active games, after posting 5 receptions on the
opening week of the season.
Conner, averaging 5.1 yards per rush on the season, is hardly
washed up, but with his receiving role currently up in the air
and the Rams having allowed the 9th fewest points to running backs,
Conner is a fence play this week.
Wide receiver Stefon Diggs has fallen out of the “no-brainer”
category following terribly unproductive performance in back-to-back
weeks, but fantasy managers need to be sure to not panic as we
head into what is an extremely high-upside matchup for the superstar
wide receiver. The Eagles are not just bad against opposing wide
receivers this season - they’re terrible. They’ve
given up more points per game to the position than any other team
and by a fairly wide margin. If we had reason to believe that
Diggs was being phased out of the offense then there’d be
some cause for concern here, but as things are, this looks like
about as good of a bounce-back opportunity as could possibly be
imagined. Get him back in your lineup with confidence.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid is also in a good spot, not for a bounce-back,
but rather to just continue doing what he has been doing which
is delivering weekly TE1 fantasy numbers. Kincaid has had double-digit
PPR fantasy points in five straight contests and he’s been
targeted at least six times in every one of those games. He’s
operating as the second option in this Bills offense and a matchup
against the Eagles secondary that has given up the fourth-most
fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season looks
like a great opportunity for him to expand upon this already great
stretch of games.
The snap counts still favor Gabe Davis, but the Bills have quietly
begun to utilize wide receiver Khalil Shakir at an increased rate
over the past three weeks. Shakir hadn’t played on even
20 percent of Buffalo’s offensive snaps in any game until
Week 7 when that number shot up to 43 percent. That number then
spiked again in Week 8 and he’s now been on the field for
at least 70 percent of the Bills’ offensive plays in four
straight games. Over that four-game stretch, Shakir has managed
to compile 288 receiving yards, including a 115-yard game this
past week which also saw him score his first touchdown of the
season.
You’d need to be in a pretty rough spot to be considering
Shakir in normal leagues, but he’s been significantly more
productive than Gabe Davis as of late and he has an excellent
matchup against a terrible Philadelphia secondary here in Week
12.
While the Eagles’ defense has allowed practically every
passing game they’ve faced to torch them, the same cannot
be said for running backs. Philadelphia has been the league’s
absolute worst matchup for opposing running backs and they’ve
actually only allowed four running backs to score even 10 fantasy
points in a game against them this season, with Breece Hall being
the only back who’s exceeded 15 points in a game against
them.
James Cook has mostly been solid for fantasy managers this season,
but given that he’s still regularly conceding touches to
other backs in this offense, this is a low-floor/low-upside matchup
for him and that’s definitely not the kind of thing we want
to be targeting in our fantasy lineups.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
The Eagles’ offense had a tough matchup this past week
against the Chiefs, but wide receiver DeVonta Smith still managed
to turn in a solid fantasy day as he caught six of the eight passes
that came his way for 99 yards. While he’s technically been
held under 100 yards in all but one game this season, Smith has
actually finished with exactly 99 yards receiving in two of his
past three contests and he should continue to be a major focal
point of the Philadelphia passing game as long as tight end Dallas
Goedert remains sidelined. We’ve seen this in the past and
Smith’s usage has historically gone up significantly when
Goedert has been out. Look for him to be at least a solid WR2
this week.
Philadelphia running back D’Andre Swift is currently dealing
with an ankle injury that has kept him limited in practice throughout
the week, but it appears likely that he’ll be active this weekend.
Assuming he’s on the field, Swift should resume his role as the
Eagles’ top running back and he’ll face a Buffalo defense that
ranks as the 10th-best matchup for opposing running backs so far
this season. They’ve recently given up big games to Breece Hall,
Javonte Williams, Joe Mixon, and Rachaad White, but they also
gave up a couple of monster performances earlier this season to
Travis Etienne and Devon Achane. Swift has touched the ball at
least 15 times in every game since Week 1 and is a strong bet
to deliver RB1 fantasy numbers in this matchup.
Despite taking a loss to the Eagles, the Chiefs running game
impressively acquitted itself against the league’s toughest
run defense. Pacheco ran for 89 yards and finished as RB23 for
the week. Pacheco is RB24 for the season (11.4 FPts/G), and this
week he’ll get a chance to flex his ceiling against a Raiders
defense that has given up the 4th most rushing yards to running
backs. Pacheco is well within the RB2 conversation for this one.
Justin Watson has surprisingly led the Chiefs in targets each
of the last two weeks, including 11 last week versus the Eagles.
He’s also seen his snap rate reach a season-high 63% each
of the last two weeks. Yet, outside of scoring a touchdown last
week, he hasn’t done a lot with the opportunities, converting
16 targets over that span into just 7 catches for 68 yards.
On the whole, Mahomes has just a 70 passer rating on targets
to Watson and the Chiefs take on a Raiders team that has been
the 12th toughest on wide receivers. Watson’s role in the
offense should be downsized back to where it has previously been,
making him an afterthought, even in very deep leagues.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Davante Adams saw his production return to form last week, as
he was targeted early and often on his way to a 7-82-1 day. The
Chiefs have been the 7th toughest team against wide receivers,
but with 26 targets in the last two weeks and the Raiders being
significant underdogs, Adams is poised to see a lot of looks.
Michael Mayer has now picked up 5 targets in back-to-back weeks,
and over the last six weeks he’s completely taken over the
starting TE role, playing at least 80% of the snaps in all but
one of those games. Still, the rookie has a season high of just
6 targets, has only two TE1 performances, and faces a Chiefs defense
that has given up just 9 yards per reception to tight ends and
just 2 touchdowns. Mayer plays the part of a good sit this week,
though there are better days ahead.
While Zay Flowers week-to-week production has been a little bit
manic due to the run-heavy nature of the Ravens offense and the
fact that he’s a rookie going through growing pains, he
still leads the Ravens in targets with 72. He has also added 7
rushes.
It’s likely that Flowers stands to pick up targets in Andrews
absence, likely making him more of a trust-worthy flex going forward
despite his lack of red zone size (5’9). Put a Chargers
defense that has given up the 2nd most points to wideouts and
Flowers looks like a solid floor, high ceiling option for Week
12.
Gus Edwards has been a touchdown machine this season, scoring
10 times in 11 games. His fantasy value has really hinged on scoring,
as he’s only averaging 51 rushing yards per game and just
under 1 reception. The latter stat is particularly important this
week, as Edwards draws a Chargers team that has given up the 5th
most points per game to running backs, yet that is mainly due
to surrendering the 3rd most receptions and receiving yards to
the position (67-505).
The Chargers have actually been respectable against the run,
itself, giving up just 4.0 yards per rush and the 18th most rushing
yards to opposing backs. Additionally, Edwards may find it harder
to reach the end zone without Mark Andrews impact on field position
and the defensive attention he draws. As such, banking on Gus
Edwards for RB2 production this week and going forward is an iffy
proposition. He might be more of a deep league flex than anything
else.
It’s an odd world when Odell Beckham Jr. is one of the
healthiest players in the room. And it didn’t last long.
Beckham is carrying a questionable tag after hurting his shoulder
late in a season-best 116-yard performance. Beckham, who’d
reeled in a touchdown in each of the previous two weeks, appeared
to be getting back to form (at least late career form) prior to
Mark Andrews going out, and now there are more targets available.
It’s very plausible, if Beckham can stay on the field, that
he is regularly in the WR3/flex conversation going forward. He
certainly should be, this week, if he’s healthy enough to
face the leaky Chargers secondary.
Tight End Isaiah Likely has barely been heard from this season
after posting 36 receptions and 3 touchdowns as a rookie. With
Mark Andrews suffering a season-ending injury early in last week’s
game versus the Bengals, Likely draws an opportunity to be more
involved. Last season, Mark Andrews sat for two games and Likely
put a TE1-worthy performance in both, combining for 23.2 points
in the two match-ups. Starting tight ends rarely have quality
“handcuffs”, but Likely has the capability to be an exception.
One difference this year that may put that in doubt is the addition
of Beckham, Flowers and Nelson Agholor. In part, this is why Likely
has just 9 receptions this season. There’s a lot more options
for Lamar Jackson to throw to, and while the match up is good,
it remains to be seen whether Likely will be high in the pecking
order. Last week, after Andrews left the game early, Likely saw
just 2 targets. If you’re short at tight end or looking for depth,
Likely is worth picking up and monitoring.
Fade: N/A
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Despite seeing his wide receiver core again get depleted by injuries,
Herbert came up with back-to-back strong performances following
a dud versus the Jets. The Packers presented a fair challenge
last week, and Herbert showed adaptability, rushing for the 2nd
highest total of his career (73 yards), and tossed 2 touchdowns.
This following a four-score performance versus the Lions.
The Ravens arrive in Los Angeles with the stingiest defense against
QBs - just 13.5 points per game allowed – and it may be
a bit too much to ask Herbert to continue to defy the odds, in
the face of such a stout defense. Herbert’s continued growth
and maturation offer some hope, but – as with the Jets three
weeks ago – this is a match up with a very low floor for
Herbert.
Quentin Johnston matched his season high with 6 targets last
week, but only picked up 2 receptions for 21 yards. His targets
have picked up as the season has gone along and the multiple Charger
receivers in front of him on the depth chart has gone down, but
none of it has added up to meaningful fantasy football value.
The Ravens have given up the 4th fewest points to wideouts, and
that means Johnston probably doesn’t have a breakout lined
up for this week.
Kmet was putting in some work with Tyson Bagent at the helm,
racking up 21 receptions for 179 yards and two TDs in three games
leading up to last Sunday. In Fields’ return, however, he managed
just three catches for 20 yards. When he faced the Vikings back
in Week 6, the tight end had a 2-9-0 line. While neither of those
performances generate much confidence for this Monday night, the
pass is the way to go after Minnesota, and Denver made a lot happen
on short connections to their running backs in their win over
the Vikings. It feels like Chicago could plug Kmet into that underneath
role to some success, affording him borderline top-10 potential.
Herbert returned from IR last week, garnering 16 carries to six
apiece for D’Onta Foreman (ankle) and Roschon Johnson. While the
usage is encouraging, he totaled just 35 yards (2.2 YPC) and is
set to face a Minnesota defense that ranks seventh in the NFL
against the run (94 yards/game; 3.7 YPC). Herbert figures to see
the yeoman’s share of the carries again in Week 12, particularly
if Foreman can’t go due to an ankle injury, but it's hard to view
him as more than a midrange RB3 based on the matchup.
Fade: N/A
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
At this point, it appears Justin Jefferson (hamstring) won’t
be activated from IR in time to play Monday night, given that
Minnesota is off in Week 13, and holding him out buys Jefferson
an extra couple of weeks to fully heal. Addison has done a solid
job filling in, though more so when Kirk Cousins was under center.
In the better part of three games with Dobbs, the rookie has a
dozen receptions for 165 yards without a TD -- he had seven scores
in eight games with Cousins. The Bears represent a chance to bounce
back. They boast a shaky secondary and stout run defense, which
is a combination that should encourage Minnesota to throw. View
Addison as a WR3 with upside.
Dobbs played a very Dobbs-like game last Sunday night, making
some eye-opening plays along with some cringe-worthy ones. That
combination resulted in 221 yards passing, 21 yards rushing, 2
total TDs, 3 fumbles (1 lost), and an interception. He should
be given every opportunity to excel this Monday against the league’s
26th-ranked pass defense, though the Bears did just force three
INTs from the usually reliable Jared Goff. If you’re looking to
bank on some upside, Dobbs offers a considerable amount.
Chandler turned 14 touches into 110 yards against the Broncos,
which is easily the best game of his young career. Thirty-one
of those yards came on a fake punt, however, and he’ll be
hard pressed to match that kind of success against Chicago’s
run defense, which ranks second in the NFL at 79.5 yards allowed
per game (and a league-low 3.4 YPC). With Mattison still the lead
back, Chandler could have trouble turning limited usage into viable
fantasy production in Week 12.
