8/22/12
Jonathan Bales is the founder of TheDCTimes.com
and writes for the New York Times and Dallas Cowboys. He’s
the author of Fantasy
Football for Smart People: How to Dominate Your Draft.
Every year, I make a list of “outrageous” fantasy
football predictions. They’re often
pretty accurate. Let’s get right into my predictions
for 2012. . .
Quarterback
Fitzpatrick was averaging 280 passing yards and three touchdowns
per game through the first three games in 2011. He broke ribs
early in the season, however, and wasn’t the same player
down the stretch.
Nonetheless, Fitzpatrick threw for nearly 4,000 yards and 24 touchdowns.
He’ll give you some points on the ground, and with Buffalo
transitioning to a high-tempo offense in 2012, I like Fitzpatrick’s
chances of landing in the top 10 among all quarterbacks.
Even throwing out Schaub’s injury history, he simply won’t
pass the ball enough to be a legitimate fantasy option in 2012.
There were signs of it last year, as Schaub was on pace for just
467 attempts before going down in Houston’s 10th game. If
he throws 475 passes in 2012, he would need to average 8.42 yards-per-attempt
to reach 4,000 yards. His career mark is 7.87.
Running Back
- Ryan
Mathews will be fourth in fantasy points among
running backs, even if he misses two games.
Prior to his injury, I had Mathews rated fourth in standard scoring
leagues. Following his injury, I still have him rated fourth.
That’s way higher than most, but don’t forget you
don’t “lose” every point Mathews would have
scored in the season’s first few weeks. Instead, you’ll
lose the difference between Mathews and a replacement player,
which is probably just around 15 points or so.
- Reggie
Bush will finish in the top 11 running backs in
PPR.
His rushing efficiency is likely to decline in 2012, but I can
pretty much guarantee that Bush surpasses his 43 receptions from
last season. With Ryan Tannehill named the starter and likely
to check down quite a bit in his in rookie campaign, look for
Bush to approach 60 receptions.
Am I the only one scared that Jackson is 31 years old? In the
Bills’ new offense, Spiller will see plenty of time on the
field, even if Jackson is in the lineup as well. Plus, Jackson
won’t come close to averaging the 5.5 yards-per-carry he
totaled in 2011.
Wide Receiver
Perhaps this one isn’t as bold as the others, but everything
is lined up for Jones to dominate in 2012: a new offensive philosophy,
a solid quarterback, a dramatic increase in targets. Oh yeah,
he’s pretty good too.
Harvin: The most underrated player in
fantasy football.
- Percy
Harvin will be a top five wide receiver in all
formats.
I think Harvin is the most underrated player in all of fantasy
football. That may be the result of his rushing totals, which
many owners either overlook or ignore. Those 300 or so rushing
yards can bump Harvin into the top tier of receivers, even if
he posts only 1,100 receiving yards and six touchdowns (my projections
for him). His versatility also makes him one of the rare low-risk/high-reward
mid-round picks.
I obviously have Cruz rated ahead of all of those players, but I’ll
be shocked if this actually happens simply because I listed so much
competition. You won’t see predictions this bold from anyone else,
though.
DHB’s receptions have increased from nine to 26 to 64 in
his three NFL seasons. I expect another jump in 2012.
Holmes’ ADP (10th round) in particular amazes me, because
he has just one career 1,000-yard season in six years. He’s
caught more than 55 passes just once, and he’s unlikely
to match his eight touchdowns from 2011. He’s a low-reward
player getting drafted in an area where you should be maximizing
upside.
Tight End
Statistically, tight end is the most consistent position in fantasy
football, with 63 percent of fantasy points carrying over from
year to year (and the rest regressing toward a league mean). That
means you’re very likely to see the position’s top
fantasy performers stay at the top in 2012.
I feel like I’m the only one on the Pettigrew bandwagon.
He’s a legit No. 1 tight end in PPR formats, however, and
his numbers will improve this season. Remember, Pettigrew averaged
only 9.4 yards-per-reception in 2011. Most see that as a negative,
but I see it as an opportunity for increased receiving yards this
year. With Calvin Johnson opening things up outside, look for
Pettigrew to at least repeat his 117 targets and 70.9 percent
catch rate from last year.
Keller’s catch rate of 59.6 percent was the second-worst of any
tight end in the NFL last year. He’ll see just as many targets,
catching a minimum of 70 of them—no matter who is playing quarterback
for the Jets.
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