Cover-1 (22.2 percent) and Cover-3 (29.9 percent) accounted for
just over half of the coverage shells that offenses saw each week
across the league in 2024. Adding the 15.2 percent Cover-2 rate
brings the composite coverage rate of the three primary coverages
on nearly two-thirds of all drop-backs, making those three coverage
shells the most important to fantasy managers.
In case you want a refresher as to why this is pertinent information,
please refer to this article.
Alpha receivers are alphas for a reason; they are targeted and
succeed against man or zone coverage much more often than they
fail. Managers can figure out the identity of those players from
the previous year most of the time by looking at the top 20 or
so fantasy scorers at receiver and the top five or so tight ends.
For the second time this week, I will be highlighting the six
most common coverage "shells" used in today's game.
The objective of this particular article is to identify what receivers
were able to succeed against certain kinds of defenses, why they
succeeded and how that could impact their fortunes (and possibly
the fortune of others) in 2025. Some coverages are used so sparingly
that a definite answer cannot be given at this time.
Key: Rt - Routes run against the specific shell coverage Tgt - Targets accumulated against the specific
shell coverage Tgt % - Percentage of team targets against the
specific shell coverage aDOT - Average depth of target TPRR - Targets per route run against the specific
shell coverage Rec - Receptions accumulated against the specific
shell coverage 1READ% - How often the pass-catcher was the first
read against the specific shell coverage YPRR - Yards per route run against the specific
shell coverage
For each group below, fantasy managers and DFS players alike
want to see a high number of routes and targets, a double-digit
aDOT (average depth of target), a TPRR (percent of targets per
route run) of around .30, a YPPR (yards per route run) in the
high 2s and a 1READ% (first-read percentage) pushing or exceeding
40 percent. Tight ends will rarely reach most of those marks for
what should be obvious reasons, so we care more about the fact
that they show up on this list at all.
Note: Each table is sorted by number of yards per route run.
Each table will have at least 22 players and each table will have
different thresholds for routes run.
* All information courtesy of Fantasy Points
Data Suite*
Most Targeted WRs/TEs Against
Cover-0 (min. 20 routes)
The league did not use Cover-0 much last season, so there is
little reason to give it much consideration for projection purposes.
One of the more notable observations I have made in each of the
seasons that I have analyzed shell coverage is how often teams
with below-average offensive lines seem to be the same ones that
have pass-catchers who face the most Cover-0. In 2023, the Eagles
(and the inability of then-OC Brian Johnson to make adjustments),
the Bears and the Cowboys each had two receivers run the most
routes against Cover-0. Last year, it was the Jets (Wilson and
Conklin … and Adams), Bengals (Chase and Iosivas) and Raiders
(Bowers, Tucker and Meyers … and Adams again) who occupied
seven of the top eight spots.
It makes sense that if a defense is sending the house and willing
to leave themselves without a safety net in deep coverage, the
offense will probably counter with an elite deep threat and/or
bigger pass-catcher - on a contested catch opportunity or a quick-hitter,
such as a slant - who provides his quarterback with a large margin
for error. In 2023, Jonnu Smith (6.31 YPPR) and CeeDee Lamb (5.14)
feasted on Cover-0.
In 2024, Smith-Njigba (5.31) essentially lapped the field. (Bowers
finished a distant second at 3.97.) However, JSN barely missed
the list because he ran only 16 routes against Cover-0. He was
Seattle's primary slot option, meaning he was frequently running
quick-hitting routes (9.9 aDOT). Three of the top four players
above (and 13 of the 22 overall) had aDOTs of less than 10 yards,
which only reinforces that most quarterbacks (understandably)
opt for the quick and easy option against Cover-0.
Such is not the case for every team, however. McLaurin was targeted
on 10 of the 23 routes that he ran against Cover-0 and posted
a 15.3 aDOT. Harrison was targeted on seven of his 23 routes and
recorded an aDOT of 16.7. Perhaps the most outrageous mark was
turned in by Romeo Doubs, who owned a 24-percent target share
against Cover-0 and had an aDOT of 23.3. (He also failed to make
the above list due to running only 17 routes against Cover-0.)
Adams (42.9 percent) and McBride (38.5) were the unquestioned
go-to guys against Cover-0 for the Raiders and Cardinals, respectively.
Although each case is slightly different, it makes sense why each
carried that distinction. Adams combines good size (6-1, 215)
with exceptional footwork and is a route-running savant. McBride
is the quintessential "too big for safeties, too fast for
linebackers" tight end.
One of the major reasons I wanted to make this particular piece
a part of my regular summer article rotation last year was to
see whether players could repeat their success.
Here are the players who were the Cover-0 beaters who made the
above list both years:
The archetype to beat Cover-0: It sounds almost
too obvious, but be big and/or fast OR get open quickly. Things
are rarely ever that simple in football, but it is a good bet
to make against Cover-0.
Because Cover-1 was played about six times more often than Cover-0
last year and the defenses are similar in several ways, it makes
sense to put much more weight on Cover-1 results than Cover-0.
Since there are several Cover-1 principles in Cover-0, it makes
sense that we would see a few of the same names from the previous
section. They are:
Unlike the previous section, we are talking about a defense that
was used at the second-highest rate last season. Forty-four players
ran 100 or more routes against it. (In fact, 199 players ran more
routes against Cover-1 than any pass-catcher did versus Cover-0.)
This should give us a large enough sample to make some more solid
observations.
Since Cover-1 is a not-too-distant cousin of Cover-0, it should
surprise no one that the Bengals, Bears, Browns, Commanders, Patriots
and Chiefs - teams with offensive line issues last season - were
among those that faced it the most. Of the 15 players who ran
at least 125 routes against Cover-1, 13 of them played for one
of those teams.
Whereas most of the Cover-0 group had low aDOTs, most of the
target hogs in this selection had aDOTs in the double figures,
which again stands to reason since there is one less rusher. It
also should not be surprising that so many of the Cover-0 pass-catchers
find themselves in this group because Cover-1 is also a man-to-man
defense.
Four players above were targeted on at 30 percent of their routes
against Cover-1, while another four would be included if we round
up from 29.5 percent. Of that group, three served as the first
read against that shell coverage at least 40 percent of the time.
Only Smith-Njigba (29.3 percent) failed to hit 30 from the group
of eight. The true standout against Cover-1 last season was A.J. Brown, who ranked third in targets (41), first in target percentage
(41.8), second in targets per route run (.39), first in yards
per route run (4.9) and first in first-read percentage (53.5)
despite missing four games.
Honorable mention goes to Malik Nabers. He led the league with
46 targets against Cover-1, ranked second in target percentage
(40), third in targets per route run (.39), 16th in yards per
route run (2.5) and second in first-read percentage (45.7).
The leaders after Brown in yards per route run are probably not
the names most would expect. Courtland Sutton (3.68) was targeted
on almost 30 percent of the 103 routes he ran against Cover-1,
while George Pickens (3.62) was thrown to on 36 percent of his
routes and was the first read 45 percent of the time. Calvin Ridley
(3.47) was right behind Pickens in all of those metrics (34.9
target percentage and 42 first-read percentage).
Perhaps the most surprising names in the top 15 are Darnell
Mooney and Mike
Gesicki. Once again, there are logical explanations as to
why each finished so high. Mooney (2.61 YPPR) has speed to burn
against a single-high safety (likely focused more on Drake
London) and can get deep with the best of them. Gesicki (2.54)
should chew up Cover-1 with the one safety focused on either Ja'Marr
Chase or Tee
Higgins and the other safety playing up to stop the run.
The archetype to beat Cover-1: A glance at the
top five entries in first-read percentage against Cover-1 is telling,
although the results are not exactly shocking. Brown, Nabers,
Ridley, Harrison and Wilson are their team's clear alpha wide
receiver. Ridley (6-1 and 190 pounds) and Wilson (6-0, 183) lack
the size of the others but make up for it with ridiculous quickness
and route-running ability. The rest of the top 11 (with a first-read
percentage of at least 33 percent) are a lot of the usual suspects:
Lamb, Ladd McConkey, Justin Jefferson, D.J. Moore, Jakobi Meyers
and Chase.
Once again, it makes sense: give bigger receivers the ball quickly
and let them try to avoid the deep defender once he has beaten
his man. Determining the alpha is more important for predictive
purposes than size, if only because one way an alpha earns that
title is by consistently defeating one of the coverages defenses
use the most in today's game. With that said, it seems reasonable
to suggest that an offense/quarterback facing a team playing a
high percentage of Cover-1 may be more inclined to target bigger
receivers over the smaller and shifty route-runners.
The catch rate for the 41 players in the table above was 72.4
percent, which is part of the reason why Cover-2 is no longer
the primary shell coverage most teams use. Three players caught
100 percent of their targets, while Jonnu Smith feasted to the
tune of 27 receptions on 30 targets for 246 yards - the third-highest
yardage total in the league against Cover-2. That mark trailed
only Chase (267) and Jefferson (263).
Three of the top six players in routes run against Cover-2 last
season were Dolphins. That should not be a shocking revelation
to most fans, as defenses quickly realized that Miami would be
unlikely to sustain long drives behind a poor offensive line and
understood the risk of not giving safety help to Hill and Waddle.
Things will probably continue to remain the same until Miami rediscovers
a ground game, which will force defenses to bring a safety down
in the box more often. This also helps to explain why De'Von Achane
and Jonnu Smith were so heavily involved in the passing game in
2024.
However, there is a clear indication that Hill was not healthy
(and missed Tua Tagovailoa when he was injured) last year. In
2023, Hill caught 30 of 36 targets he saw against Cover-2. In
2024, he hauled in 17 of 19. While the catch rate was great in
both years, the major differences were volume (obviously) and
a two-yard difference in aDOT (9.6 in 2023, 7.6 in 2024) - the
latter of which we can probably attribute to poor offensive line
play.
Target percentage reveals some interesting results. Only 13 players
above saw a target share of at least 20 percent against Cover-2.
Two of them are probably shocking to the casual observer: Ray-Ray
McCloud, Michael
Pittman Jr. and Jonnu
Smith. The first two players just beat the 70-route cutoff
I used for this shell coverage, so that distinction helped their
cause.
With that said, we need to look no further than aDOT for our
answer as to why McCloud and Smith were there. A 4.2 aDOT would
be a small number against Cover-0 or Cover-1, but it is a minuscule
number against Cover-2 and indicates Atlanta - especially limited
by Kirk Cousins for most of the season - was more than content
to get the ball into McCloud's hands quickly and hope the open-field
skills he has displayed as a returner would be enough to move
the chains. Smith was just discussed in the previous paragraph.
Pittman is a big target who effectively ran a lot of tight end-like
routes for the Colts last year, in part because Indianapolis did
not have a tight end it could trust.
A quick analysis of yards per route run is equally interesting.
After LSU products (Jefferson, Chase and Nabers) lead off that
group, we find Pittman, Adams, Metcalf, Harrison, Smith and Alex Pierce. We just discussed Pittman and Smith. Adams' presence is
not surprising either, as he excels against just about any coverage.
Metcalf is usually typecast as a vertical-only threat given his
speed, but his ability to do well against Cover-2 with an aDOT
below his overall aDOT (all routes) indicates he is more than
just a big-play wideout.
Harrison's place on this list should be a shocker since three
of his most common forms of routes (corner, post and go) - including
the route he ran the most (go, 102 times) - are downfield routes
that Cover-2 is designed to stop. Pierce's aDOT is huge (20.6)
against a defense designed to stop the big play, but we need to
look no further than his eight targets (seven catches) to see
why his YPRR is so high. Several of the players earlier in this
paragraph had at least twice as many targets and catches as Pierce.
Good tight ends typically feast against Cover-2 for several reasons,
including but not limited to the likelihood they have good spatial
awareness (which is important against any zone coverage) and the
weakness of the defense (middle of the field). While not to the
degree of last year when eight of the top 24 target-earners against
Cover-2 played the position, tight ends occupy the top two spots
on this year's list and three of the top eight (Smith with 30
targets, Bowers with 28 and Travis Kelce with 21).
As a side note, it was interesting to discover that players such
as Darnell Mooney (68 routes), Trey McBride (67), McConkey (67),
Sam LaPorta (65), Sutton (65) and Lamb (63) just missed the 70-route
cutoff. George Kittle (52) did not come close to qualifying. Zay Flowers (57) didn't come all that close either despite playing
every game, while Stefon Diggs (54) probably only needed two or
three more games to do so, despite having his season cut short
after eight outings.
The archetype to beat Cover-2: Elite route-runners
with great spatial awareness can get open against just about every
coverage, but they can be deadly against Cover-2 because of how
they can influence the safety. Highly athletic tight ends with
the speed to outrun linebackers down the seam will feast if the
safeties have to respect the speed of the perimeter receivers.
In other words, this defense is the one fantasy managers want
to target if they need a big game from their tight end.
Four teams utilized Cover-3 at least 40 percent of the time in
2024, while another seven utilized it on more than a third of
their defensive plays, making this defense the one to weigh the
most heavily when considering matchups this season. Only four
changed their defensive coordinator in the offseason, meaning
we can probably expect the Panthers, Packers, Rams, Raiders, Giants,
Steelers and Buccaneers to remain teams that use it as their primary
shell coverage in 2025.
Cover-3 is more of a jack-of-all-trades-and-master-of-none defense,
which means alphas can alpha if the quarterbacks and/or offensive
coordinators allow them to do so. The immediate takeaway when
looking at the route-run data is that the Lions faced this shell
coverage a lot to have two receivers finish among the top three
and three pass-catchers among the top eight. Tre Tucker was fourth
with 183 routes but was only targeted on 11.3 percent of them.
Interestingly, Jaxon Smith-Njigba was in a similar boat, as he
ended up running the seventh-most routes against Cover-3 but was
only targeted on only 17.6 percent of them.
The target share column does not quite mirror the top fantasy
scorers from last year, but it is not far off either. Then again,
if players thrive against the most common defense they see, it
makes sense that they will probably score their fair share of
fantasy points.
Perhaps the most surprising name inside the top 15 is Jauan Jennings.
While he just made the 120-route cutoff, it is probably not a
coincidence that he was targeted on a quarter of his routes against
this shell coverage. The fact that he tied for fourth in targets
per route run (.30) and ranked 12th in first-read percentage (31.3)
only solidifies that notion. Quentin Johnston (22nd) makes an
appearance shortly after McConkey, so the few supporters the former
has left can take some comfort in knowing that the Chargers still
have some use for him.
One example of the year-to-year unpredictability of this analysis
is Calvin Ridley against Cover-3. As a Jaguar in 2023, his aDOT
was 12.1 against this coverage. In Tennessee last season, it was
22.5. As one might expect for such a high aDOT accompanied by
bad quarterback play, his catch rate was an abysmal 43.3 percent.
Cam Ward may not be the cure for all that has ailed Ridley in
recent years, but here's guessing that HC Brian Callahan will
lower Ridley's aDOT by at least six yards against Cover-3 and
Ward will help him increase his catch rate at least 15 points.
Perhaps two of the more encouraging metrics to support a good
season for Ridley are that he led the league in air yards against
Cover-3 (674) while only participating in 79 percent of the team's
drop-backs against that shell look.
Taking a quick look at yards per route run against Cover-3, it
becomes clear why the Packers want to get Tucker Kraft more involved
in 2025. His yards after contact (241) rank seventh in this group,
while his yards after contact per reception rank first (3.7).
His yards after the catch metrics are every bit as impressive;
only Ja'Marr Chase (314-241) had more yards after the catch, while
no one came within three yards of Kraft after the catch per reception
(12.1).
The archetype to beat Cover-3: The top of this
table - when sorted by first-read percentage - pretty much reads
like a who's who at receiver. If there is a highly athletic tight
end in the league, he is probably on this list as well. Tight
ends or slot receivers that run well down the seam or have the
speed to separate from coverage on deep over routes also tend
to do well.
One of the primary reasons that defenses use this shell - despite
its rigidity - is that it tends to force offenses into sustaining
long drives. It makes sense that if a defense is usually forcing
long drives, it is probably giving up a lot of short passes. Offenses
know their best option to avoid prolonged drives is to give the
ball to their pass-catchers who can break a tackle and turn a
short play into an explosive one. All of this contributes to alphas
being alphas because they are typically very good after the catch.
In short, the archetype that fantasy managers should want to target
against teams that use a lot of Cover-3 is an offense's clear
alpha receiver - assuming it has one.
Cover-4 will likely surpass Cover-1 as the second-most used coverage
shell in the NFL soon, if only because it is probably the most
malleable of the philosophies discussed in this piece. It is flexible
enough to add help against the run, provide plenty of deep support
and allow defensive coordinators to mix man and zone coverage
principles. With that said, it only leaves three players (assuming
a four-man rush) to cover all of the underneath zones, so the
short and intermediate areas of the field should be open for multiple
pass-catchers. Cover-4 also often requires more practice and communication
among defensive backs than the aforementioned coverages because
of the different rules (i.e., more if/then scenarios), so coverage
busts can happen more frequently if the team is in its infancy
in learning the defense.
The Raiders attempted the fourth-most passes in the league last
season, so it is no surprise to see their pass-catchers near the
top of every shell coverage breakdown. Nevertheless, there is
something just a bit jarring about Tre Tucker (92) running almost
as many routes as Brock Bowers (93) and Jakobi Meyers (94). Other
bizarrro-world discoveries: Ray-Ray McCloud (91) ran more routes
against Cover-4 than Drake London (83) and Darnell Mooney (82).
Jalen Tolbert (87) and Andrei Iosivas (87) finishing with more
routes than Justin Jefferson against any shell coverage also seems
hard to believe.
While McCloud running more routes against Cover-4 than London
is next to impossible for me to explain, the rest of them make
sense on some level. Tucker, Tolbert and Iosivas typically operated
as their team's field-stretcher. It is a thankless job most of
the time because that particular receiver is usually trying to
open up an area of the field for a teammate. Unsurprisingly, none
of those three receivers were targeted more than 16 percent of
the time on their routes against Cover-4.
With four defenders devoted to deep coverage, it is little wonder
that some of the most targeted players against Cover-4 had aDOTs
under 10. (Of the 12 receivers with at least 21 targets against
this shell coverage, only Garrett Wilson and Jerry Jeudy posted
aDOTs higher than 10.) With such short aDOTs, it should come as
little surprise that 12 pass-catchers above had catch rates of
at least 80 percent and 17 had catch rates of at least 75 percent.
Smith-Njigba feasted against Cover-4 in particular, hauling in
20 of his 21 targets (95.2 percent) for 242 yards and two touchdowns.
Demario Douglas (92.3) and Brock Bowers (92) were not far behind.
Perhaps the most interesting (yet understandable) name atop the
target share leaderboard is Josh Downs (33.3 percent). I use the
term "interesting" only because Downs is far from a
household name. Another name that does not seem like it belongs
is Kayshon Boutte (25). While Boutte emerged as a deep threat
at the end of last season, his 10.3 aDOT should serve as a reminder
that he was doing reasonably well on some shorter routes as well.
With so many defenders playing so far off the ball, Downs is
close to the prototype of a player who beats this shell coverage
because he is so quick and understands how to find open space.
Another example of a smallish receiver who is quick and understands
how to find open space is Wan'Dale Robinson (23.1 percent, who
was targeted against Cover-4 nearly as often as teammate Malik Nabers (27.1). Ditto for Douglas (19.7).
First-read percentage is one of the best advanced metrics available
and does a fine job of giving fantasy managers some clue about
who the quarterback trusts the most. The first 15 entries in this
particular category (28.3 percent first-read rate or higher) require
very little explanation because it is a group littered with alpha
receivers, quick and savvy types like the ones detailed in the
paragraph above or both.
The archetype to beat Cover-4: One consideration
here is that Cover-4 typically uses one of two variations - man-match
or spot zone. In other words, there is no guarantee that a Cover-4
shell is primarily a zone or man defense. Since true alpha receivers
typically can beat any man or zone defense, it makes sense that
many of the expected alphas are actually listed inside the top
20 of targets against this defensive shell.
The best (and perhaps safest) bet against this defense is receivers/tight
ends that excel at running in-breaking routes. Why? Cornerbacks
are supposed to play bail coverage to occupy their quarter of
the deep part of the field, which should leave a reasonably sized
window for the quarterback to target as soon as the pass-catcher
breaks his route inside.
No team is using Cover-6 as its primary shell, so coordinators
run the risk of getting burnt in a big way using a defense they
do not use a lot and that is the most likely to break down (due
to communication errors and unfamiliarity with it). With that
said, the Eagles (17.4 percent) utilized it more than any other
team last season. Perhaps it is not shocking that their NFC East
foes (Cowboys and Giants, in particular) have receivers that occupy
three of the top four and four of the top seven spots in routes
run against this particular coverage on the chart above.
Since Cover-6 is a combination of Cover-2 and Cover-4, there
is not much more to add here that has not already been said. We
can reasonably conclude - for now - that pass-catchers capable
of earning targets of such a high rate against Cover-2 and Cover-4
will likely do so against Cover-6.
The archetype to beat Cover-6: One of the most
frequent ways to beat Cover-2 is with a tight end who can run
well down the seam. One of the most frequent ways to beat Cover-4
is with in-breaking routes. Thus, it should come as little surprise
that players who fit at least one of those criteria who were so
heavily targeted against a defense that combines the two principles
are well represented above. Unfortunately, the relative lack of
usage of Cover-6 makes it a bit harder to find a true archetype.
Much like Cover-4, the best (and perhaps safest) bet against this
defense is receivers/tight ends that excel at running in-breaking
routes considering most of the key defenders are typically bailing
in coverage. As such, players who excel at short, quick-hitting
routes are a smart play most of the time.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and
joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season.
He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced
a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby. Please
check him out on "The Football Diehards" podcast - courtesy
of Full Time Fantasy - on Wednesday nights with co-host JJ Wenner.
