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RedZone Targets are the Key



By Steve Schwarz | 7/22/21 |

Do you want to own the No.1 wide receiver or the No. 1 tight end in 2021?

Of course you do. We all do.

What if I could show you a statistic that your wide receiver or tight end MUST DO to become the best at his position?

The key is red zone targets!

It’s actually pretty logical. Scoring touchdowns adds fantasy points at a fast pace, so getting as many chances as possible leads to very good things for receivers and fantasy owners. In this case, every No.1 ranked receiver and tight end over the past four seasons can be found by searching for top-10 total red zone targets. Below, I pulled out the top-10 red zone targets for you to see.

 Redzone Targets: Top 10
2020 Player Team Pos Rec Tgt TDs FPts/G Pos Rk
Davante Adams GB WR 25 32 14 25.7 1
Darren Waller LV TE 21 27 6 17.5 2
Calvin Ridley ATL WR 12 26 7 18.8 4
Adam Thielen MIN WR 17 23 13 16.8 11
Tyreek Hill KC WR 16 23 8 21.9 2
Allen Robinson CHI WR 12 23 4 16.4 13
Stefon Diggs BUF WR 16 22 8 20.5 3
Travis Kelce KC TE 14 22 10 20.8 1
Jimmy Graham CHI TE 13 22 8 9.0 19
Marvin Jones DET WR 12 21 4 14.2 25
2019
Michael Thomas NO WR 20 26 9 23.4 1
Julian Edelman NE WR 15 23 5 15.7 12
Travis Kelce KC TE 8 22 3 16.0 1
Davante Adams GB WR 15 21 3 17.7 5
Tyler Lockett SEA WR 14 21 7 14.7 23
Jarvis Landry CLE WR 13 21 5 14.8 22
James White NE RB 17 20 4 13.3 23
Keenan Allen LAC WR 13 20 3 16.3 8
Courtland Sutton DEN WR 11 20 3 13.8 29
Zach Ertz PHI TE 10 20 5 14.4 4
2018
Davante Adams GB WR 16 32 12 21.8 1
Michael Thomas NO WR 24 31 7 20.0 6
Travis Kelce KC TE 19 30 9 18.5 1
Alvin Kamara NO RB 22 29 5 23.2 4
J. Smith-Schuster PIT WR 15 29 5 18.6 8
DeAndre Hopkins HOU WR 17 28 9 21.1 3
Zach Ertz PHI TE 16 28 7 17.2 2
James White NE RB 16 22 7 17.3 10
Eric Ebron IND TE 12 22 11 14.0 4
George Kittle SF TE 12 21 3 16.0 3
2017
Jimmy Graham SEA TE 17 29 10 10.6 8
Keenan Allen LAC WR 12 26 4 17.8 4
Antonio Brown PIT WR 13 25 7 22.0 1
Jarvis Landry MIA WR 18 24 11 16.5 5
Davante Adams GB WR 16 24 8 15.9 9
Cooper Kupp LA WR 13 23 5 11.9 29
Rob Gronkowski NE TE 11 23 7 17.3 1
Dez Bryant DAL WR 11 22 5 11.8 31
Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 12 21 6 16.3 6
Travis Kelce KC TE 11 21 7 15.7 2

In 2020 both Davante Adams and Travis Kelce led their position in fantasy points per game. In fact, Adams has been in the top-five of red zone targets since 2016 and Kelce in the top-10 since 2017.

If you are a tight end and finish in the top-10 in targets, your average tight end position rank is fourth and all four winners are there; Kelce three times and Rob Gronkowski once. Only twice did a top-10 tight end finish outside the top-four and that was a pair of years for Jimmy Graham where he didn’t catch a lot of passes between the 20s, just near the end zone.

If you are a wide receiver, again, every winner is on the list; Adams twice, Michael Thomas once and Antonio Brown once. The average finish of a wideout who finished in the top-10 in red zone targets is 10.7. Not as good as the tight end position, but still the average player on the chart is a WR1.

So what do we do with the information? How do we incorporate this knowledge into our draft?

First off we pray Aaron Rodgers stays in Green Bay and continues to throw to Adams.

Second, we have to look at each individual teams and evaluate which receivers are going to be their team’s favorite red zone target.

In Carolina, Robby Anderson led the team in targets with 16 and the No.2 option, Curtis Samuel is no longer with the team (WFT). Anderson also has a previous link with new starting quarterback Sam Darnold when they played together in New York and this could lead to even more opportunities for the Panthers’ wideout. If you are thinking D.J. Moore is better than Anderson (yes, he may have more talent), know Moore saw just six red zone targets in 15 games last season.

The Bengals’ Tyler Boyd led the team with 18 targets, but No.2 and No.3, Giovani Bernard and A.J. Green respectively, are gone and their combined 26 targets are available. If we can determine who between Boyd, Tee Higgins and rookie Ja’Marr Chase will get the biggest share we should have a WR1 receiver. At the moment I say Boyd, but I think we’ll have to wait to see more input.

In Detroit, the team let both Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones leave town. With multiple question marks on the outside, T.J. Hockenson returns after seeing a 2020 Lions’ second-best 16 red zone targets and could be in line for a huge jump.

Darren Waller saw 27 of 90 team red zone targets last season and the No.2 guy on the 2020 Raiders, Nelson Agholor, took his 17 targets to New England. Unless Henry Ruggs or John Brown suddenly becomes a red zone guy, the imbalance could be even greater in 2021 and Waller could finally beat out Kelce for No. 1.

Michael Thomas, the 2019 No.1 fantasy wideout, disappeared in 2020 for many reasons, but should rebound in a big way in 2021. Jared Cook (17 targets) and Emmanuel Sanders (14 targets) have moved on leaving 31 targets available. Thomas only saw 11 last season, but 26 in 2019 and could return to the top of the red zone target list and WR1 status.

The Titans’ Jonnu Smith led the team with 19 targets and eight red zone touchdowns in 2020, but he’ll be catching passes for Bill Belichick this season. Meanwhile, the addition of All-Pro Julio Jones is great, but he’s never been a big touchdown guy (only once hitting double-digit TDs in 2012). Therefore, A.J. Brown should become even more dangerous than last season, when he finished seventh-best at 17.4 FPts/G. In 2020, Brown turned 15 red zone targets into eight touchdowns, so if he gets just 10 more close in targets, a dozen red zone touchdowns should be within reach which could make Brown a huge threat to be the best fantasy wide receiver in the league.