Saints @ Seahawks - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: For the first time in their 46-year history as a club the New Orleans Saints won a road playoff game, overcoming the hottest team in the NFL and the coldest weather they faced all season in downing the Eagles 26-24 in Philadelphia on a below-freezing Saturday evening. Just as they turned their playoff fortunes on their head, so too did they flip the script in terms of their offensive game plan, shying away from their potent aerial attack by more than 25 percent of season averages, with Drew Brees throwing the ball only 30 times compared to his usual 40.7 attempts per game. With kickoff temperatures in the 20s and falling throughout the night Brees struggled early in the game, throwing two bad interceptions before halftime and completing only two-thirds of his passes while gaining just 250 yards through the air. Despite his lower output the Saints were actually more efficient through the air, averaging 8.3 yards per attempt compared to 7.9 on the season and giving up only two sacks for a loss of one total yard, down from season averages of 2.3 sacks per game for 15.3 total yards lost. In typical Brees fashion, many players were involved in the passing game, with six of them gaining more than 25 receiving yards, but for only the second time all season, not one went for more than 45 yards. Star wide receiver Marques Colston was outgained by every Saints pass catcher except the third-string tight end and the fullback, and All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham turned his four targets into only 44 yards with no touchdowns, making it arguably the second worst game of his season. Only running back Darren Sproles turned in a nearly normal performance, with four receptions on seven targets for 31 yards. But even that was substandard compared to what fantasy owners have come to expect and what he’s been able to do for New Orleans at various times this season.

Aside from the weather there was little in Philadelphia that should have slowed down the Saints' second-ranked aerial attack, considering how the Eagles are ranked last in passing yardage allowed and are mediocre in nearly all statistical categories against the pass. While the forecast doesn’t call for a freeze, Seattle is expected to see temperatures in the 40s with strong winds and a near certainty for rain. Add to that the home crowd—not to mention the league’s best pass defense, which is at or near the top of every major defensive category—and CenturyLink field may be even less hospitable than the conditions the Saints faced last week. The worst performance of the season for Brees and company came on the road against Seattle in Week 13, where no receiver topped 45 yards, only three broke 25, and only 147 yards were gained through the air as the Seahawks dismantled New Orleans 34-7. Brees did throw a touchdown without an interception and was sacked only once, though that sack resulted in a fumble recovery for a defensive touchdown, meaning that the quarterback accounted for just as many points for his team as he did for his opponent. If the Saints are to escape the same fate that greeted them during the regular season, Jimmy Graham will have to play a bigger role than he did last time, which may be noticeably easier considering that linebacker K.J. Wright (foot) will be unavailable for this matchup. Wright has drawn primary coverage duties against tight ends this season and, along with his teammates, has held tight ends to the third fewest fantasy points at that position. The ability for the Seahawks to replicate their previous coverage of Graham will go a long way to determining the outcome of the game. Unfortunately for New Orleans, the lead-up to this game mirrors their earlier matchup, with Seattle coming off a bye and the Saints recently completing a successful road trip to the East Coast. If the playoff win over the Eagles is any indication, perhaps the best plan for New Orleans is to focus more heavily on the ground game and to utilize the pass as a way to defensively move an eighth man out of the box, though if Graham can’t be covered adequately, that potentially blows the top off the Seahawks pass defense.

Running Game Thoughts: In a game that shredded most predictions, the Saints recorded more rushing attempts than passing attempts and more than doubled their season average for rushing yards (185 vs 92.1) against a top ten Philadelphia run defense. The bulk of the load was carried by running back Mark Ingram due to Pierre Thomas (chest) being out for the wildcard game; Thomas is listed as Questionable for this weekend and Ingram is once again expected to shoulder primary rushing duties while being spelled by Khiry Robinson, who is coming off back-to-back performances with eight or more carries for 45-plus yards. For the vast majority of the year New Orleans has benefitted from playing indoors or in mild outdoor weather, pinning their success to the arm of Brees and the hands of their talented corps of pass catchers, but in their first truly disadvantageous weather environment the Saints put together their second best rushing game of the season, without the services of their leading rusher. New Orleans gained 5.1 yards per rush attempt against the Eagles, who averaged a meager 3.8 yards allowed per rush this year and surpassed their 104.4 yards allowed per game by more than 80 yards. The wildcard game was the first contest of the season in which the Saints recorded more rushing attempts than passing attempts and similarly it was the first where New Orleans won as a road underdog, so while a one game sample doesn’t provide enough of a foundation for hypotheses, it is encouraging to see the Saints adapt to their surroundings and find a way to win. In a game that is likely to feature poor throwing conditions and a raucous home crowd New Orleans will once again be forced to adapt and almost certainly will turn to the ground game for inspiration, much as they did in the opening round of the playoffs.

Counting the upcoming rematch game against Seattle, this will be the ninth time in 18 games the Saints have faced a top ten run defense, including five contests against the top four; New Orleans is 4-4 in those previous eight games but 3-2 in the five contests against top four rush defenses. Going against a stout front seven is nothing new to the Saints and the outcomes of the previous contests suggest they’re just as capable of overcoming their opponent’s rush defense as they are succumbing to it. At 4-4 it’s essentially a coin flip, so while they were entirely overwhelmed in the Week 13 contest against Seattle (44 yards on 17 carries) the Divisional playoff round is another game and another chance for the coin to fall the right way. The Seahawks have oscillated between average and stifling since their Week 12 bye, holding opponents to under 45 yards rushing or allowing more than 135 on the ground in alternating weeks. New Orleans is unlikely to find a middle ground in their rushing attack, and considering the success they found in the wildcard round, along with the probable difficulties that await the passing game, it feels more likely that the Saints will break through the Seahawks' rushing ceiling rather than be stymied for a second time by the Seattle run defense. Barring divine intervention or dramatic changes in game plans, the success of the New Orleans offense is likely to hinge on how well they’re able to run the ball, as it both softens the defense against the pass and opens up the play-action portions of their playbook, giving Brees the opportunity to pull off an upset and exact revenge for their mid-season bludgeoning.

Projections:
Drew Brees: 220 pass yards, 1 TD, 1 INT / 10 rush yards
Mark Ingram: 80 rush yards / 10 rec yards
Darren Sproles: 10 rush yards / 30 rec yards
Jimmy Graham: 50 rec yards
Marques Colston: 40 rec yards

Passing Game Thoughts: Anyone familiar with the “quality versus quantity” argument likely understands how the Seahawks view the passing game, but for those unaware, a brief explanation will suffice. In total numbers of attempts, only one team threw fewer passes during the regular season, but only one team gained more yards per attempt, so while Seattle threw less often then nearly every other team, they were the second most efficient at doing so. These numbers played out on an individual basis as well, with Russell Wilson attempting the fewest passes of any full-time starter but scoring touchdowns on 6.4 percent of this throws, the third highest rate in the league. Additionally, the Seahawks have committed the third fewest interceptions in the NFL this season, though when adjusting for their minimal amount of attempts, Russell throws a pick on 2.2 percent of his passes, roughly average for the league among quarterbacks receiving the majority of the snaps for their team. Beyond their efficiency Seattle has two more major factors working in their favor: having a bye last week and the uncertainty surrounding wide receiver Percy Harvin. To address the first, it is best to reflect on the Week 13 matchup between these two teams, where the Seahawks used their bye from the previous week to add new wrinkles to their passing game, which ultimately led to the best passing day of the year for Wilson as he threw for 310 yards at a 73.3 completion rate with three touchdowns and no interceptions ; for good measure he also scrambled eight times for 47 yards. Despite appearing in the prior game and having the bye week to recover, Harvin (hip) missed the regular season contest against the Saints, though he was listed as day-to-day leading up to the game. That forced New Orleans to spend time defensively game-planning for him. This week the mercurial receiver is once again day-to-day because of hip soreness, and the team has been cautious in tipping their hand about his expected availability. While his status may not be fully known until game time, the Saints will certainly be preparing as if he’ll play, and in the ultimate lose-lose scenario they either waste their practice time scheming against a player who won’t be there or they end up having to face one of the most dynamic (when healthy) players in the league.

The greatest weakness in the Seattle aerial attack is their inability to protect the quarterback, giving up a sack more than once per every 10 pass attempts, which is the worst rate in the league. This will undoubtedly be the area New Orleans tries to exploit, as they finished the regular season with the fourth most sacks of any defense. They have used this pressure to hold opponents to the second fewest yards against per game (194.1) and are top six in touchdowns allowed (20) through the air. In the wildcard round they surrendered 195 passing yards, two touchdowns, and recorded two sacks, all near but slightly worse than their regular season averages. Being so impressive against the pass has come as a relative surprise considering the mounting injuries to their secondary, including losing cornerback Patrick Robinson (Week 2), cornerback Jabari Greer (Week 11), and safety Kenny Vaccaro (Week 16) all for the year and seeing cornerback Keenan Lewis leave last week with a head injury. Immediately after Lewis left the game the Eagles went down the field and scored, primarily using the pass, so Lewis's being listed as Probable in this game is monumental for New Orleans. In Week 13 Wilson completed passes to nine different receivers including five to tight end Zach Miller for 86 yards and his most active game of the season. Spreading out the Saints defense will be key to exploiting them through the air for a second time by forcing inexperienced corners and safeties into coverage, and with Harvin potentially on the field for this matchup, the task facing New Orleans becomes even more difficult.

Running Game Thoughts: If the weather plays out as expected the Saints won’t be the only team facing changes to their game plan. Although Seattle is undoubtedly a run-first team (second most regular season attempts) they do as much damage through the air as most anybody else, and they benefit more than most from having balance to their offense, utilizing the pass as a perfect complement to their strong ground game. The workhorse of the offense is running back Marshawn Lynch, who has accounted for 59.1 percent of the team’s carries, 57.4 percent of their rushing yards, and 85.7 percent of their rushing scores; he also leads the league in touchdowns (12 rushing, two receiving). Behind him the Seahawks rely on their duel-threat quarterback for the second largest portion of their rushing offense, with another 18.9 percent, 24.6 percent, and 7.1 percent for attempts, yards, and rushing scores, respectively. Lynch and Russell combine for approximately 78 percent of all carries and 82 percent of team rushing yards, along with 13 of the 14 touchdowns from the ground game, so from a fantasy perspective there is minimal value to playing any Seattle ball carrier who isn’t one of those two. As a team Seattle average 138.6 rushing yards per game, fourth best in the league, though they have failed to reach that mark in any of their last six games. During that time Wilson has outrushed Lynch twice and the star running back has eclipsed 70 yards as many times has he’s been held to less than 55 (three times each) while never breaking the century mark. He does have five touchdowns in those six games, though Week 13 against the Saints was the worst of the bunch, with no scores and only 45 rushing yards (plus 12 receiving) on the day. Seattle is just above the league average with 4.3 yards per rush attempt, gaining most of their yardage through volume of carries, a stark contrast to their highly efficient passing game.

Despite the rushing results from their mid-season meeting, the Saints are approximately average against the run and have the fifth worst mark for yards allowed per attempt; Seattle’s 127 yards with no touchdowns and a 3.3-yard average from Week 13 beg to differ. Since limiting the Seahawks that evening the New Orleans rush defense has allowed 4.6 yards per carry, right at their season average, and the 107 yards per game they’ve surrendered is just under their season mark, meaning that the Seattle game may have only been an anomaly—but one that the Saints will be looking to replicate. Although their offense may be hoping for clear skies and calm winds, the New Orleans defense will likely be doing whatever rain dance they can to help limit what the Seahawks do against their depleted secondary. That will leave them to once again searching for a way to handle Lynch and Russell in the ground game, but after doing it earlier this season, the Saints coaching staff may have some ideas of how to improve on their earlier success. Against the only other teams he has faced more than once this season, Lynch totaled 256 yards in the first matchups compared to 249 yards in the encore performances, giving hope to New Orleans that they’ll be able to keep him in check once again but also suggesting that bottling him up even further is unlikely. The last time these teams met in the playoffs was in the wildcard round of the 2010-2011 season, where “Beast Mode” was born and Lynch sealed the game with a 67-yard scoring run, giving the Seahawks the first ever playoff victory by a team with a losing record (they were 7-9 at the time) and Coach Pete Carroll a postseason victory in his first year as an NFL head coach. This time around it will be the Saints who come in as heavy underdogs looking to pull off the upset, but that will likely hinge on their ability to tame the Beast while also keeping tabs on Wilson and not allowing his scrambles to become game changers.

Projections:
Russell Wilson: 200 pass yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT / 40 rush yards
Marshawn Lynch: 80 rush yards, 1 TD / 20 rec yards
Golden Tate: 60 rec yards
Doug Baldwin: 40 rec yards
Zach Miller: 50 rec yards

Prediction: Seahawks 24, Saints 16 ^ Top

Colts @ Patriots - (Thorne)

Passing Game Thoughts: After spotting the Chiefs a 28-point lead just over 31 minutes into the game last weekend Indianapolis, led by Andrew Luck, completed the biggest non-overtime playoff comeback in league history, squeaking out a one-point win against a team that was in or tied for first place for the majority of the season. Luck was both brilliant and terrible, hitting career-highs with 443 yards and four touchdowns, but also tying another career high with three interceptions, a large reason why the Colts fell behind by so much in the first place. He added another 45 rush yards from seven carries and turned a fortuitous bounce on a Donald Brown fumble into a touchdown recovery, directly accounting for five of the six touchdowns Indianapolis scored. The wildcard game was the first time all season the Colts won when Luck threw for 285 or more yards; generally, his yardage totals remain mediocre unless his team is playing considerably from behind and this was the first time all year that they mounted such a dramatic comeback. For the season the Colts are averaging 233 passing yards per game, right on the midline for the league, and while their touchdown total (23) is a bit below average, they have one of the best marks for interceptions thrown (10) and sacks allowed (32) despite having more pass attempts than half of the league. In all, the Colts pass attack is roughly average, but the player leading it has the ability to perform at an elite level when needed. As for those catching passes from Luck, only three players have more than 30 receptions or 310 yards, and one of those (wide receiver Reggie Wayne) has been on IR since Week 8. Luck's top two targets are by far wide receiver T.Y. Hilton and tight end Coby Fleener, and behind them seven other players have both more than 10 receptions and at least one touchdown, 10 have at least one reception of 20 or more yards, and 13 have caught a pass for a first down. While the receiving depth chart is exceptionally top-heavy, Luck has demonstrated the willingness to distribute the ball to whoever can contribute, and that is the primary reason why the Colts have been able to reinvent themselves after losing Wayne, their offensive leader.

While the media speculates about the impending shootout between these two teams, the history of both suggest that neither would benefit from a high-scoring contest. With a limited run game the Colts would have to rely on the arm of Luck, and aside from the miraculous wildcard comeback, they’ve not won when he’s had monster passing days. The Patriots have struggled defensively on and off for most of the season but have managed to win close games against good teams when the scores hover near the low 30s, including a 30-27 win over New Orleans and a 34-31 overtime win against Denver, the two best passing offenses in the league. Both of those victories came in Foxboro, where this divisional showdown will take place, and where the Patriots have been undefeated since Week 15 of last season. A large portion of New England's defensive success has come from using cornerback Aqib Talib in man coverage and utilizing double teams when possible, with the ultimate goal of neutralizing the top receiver. Because of how Hilton is used in the Colts offense, the best estimate is that Talib will have him one-on-one when he lines up outside, likely getting safety help when possible, and that when Hilton is in the slot he’ll be bracketed as Talib marks another man. With Bill Belichick, however, there is a world of possibilities, and the public’s best guess is rarely close to accurate. For the season the Patriots have allowed 239 passing yards per game but in each of the last five, opponents have surpassed that mark while averaging 296.8 yards against through the air. And in four of those five games, the opponent's most productive receiver was also atop their depth chart, suggesting that even as New England tried to limit the biggest receiving threat, they were woefully unable to do so. Ignoring the Buffalo game in which the top wide receiver wasn’t even active, in the four remaining contests the top receivers scored twice and averaged 111.5 yards per game. If the Patriots hope to prevent a home upset, they will have to be noticeably better against Hilton than they’ve been against other top receivers. If they are able prevent a big day from him, Indianapolis will likely find it difficult to move the ball otherwise, especially considering the limited contributions the rest of the receiving corps has provided throughout the season.

Running Game Thoughts: In many respects the Indianapolis rushing attack doesn’t get enough credit, while in a number of other respects it perhaps gets too much. The Colts have started four different running backs this season; one played one game, one played three, a third was acquired early in the season and never materialized as a true starter, and the fourth was buried down the depth chart from the beginning of training camp. In total, Indianapolis has seen a ball carrier break 80 yards only twice this season and as a team they average just 108.9 per game. Despite that they are in the top ten for rushing touchdowns scored and are tied for the fewest fumbles lost on running plays, so they make the most of their opportunities and only once has a ball carrier given away possession. Because of the backfield uncertainty no running back rushed for more than 550 yards or scored more than six touchdowns, but toward the end of the season Donald Brown emerged as the primary ball carrier and averaged 5.3 yards per carry. The acquisition of Trent Richardson has yet to yield substantial dividends, as he’s responsible for the team’s only fumble and has averaged a meager 2.9 yards per carry. Despite receiving nearly 54 percent more touches, Richardson trailed Brown in rushing yards by nearly 80 at the end of the regular season before adding one carry for zero yards in the wildcard game while Brown totaled 55 yards and a touchdown on only 11 attempts. If the Colts are forced to win the game on the ground, there is little optimism in their pulling together a decent rushing attack. Where Brown and Richardson excel is with the ball in space through short passes or clever run play design, so while a traditional “ground and pound” approach may be unsuccessful, the pair of running backs could still be able to significantly contribute in other ways if given the right opportunity.

With defensive tackles Vince Wilfork and Tommy Kelly and linebacker Jerod Mayo out since Weeks 4, 5 and 6, respectively, the middle of the New England defense had already been wearing dangerously thin; now that linebacker Brandon Spikes (knee) has been placed on IR there is concern about how the Patriots' front seven will be able to defend the run. After losing their two big men New England adjusted their defense to send Spikes on run blitzes more often, and for the most part that additional pressure was able to hold back the rising waters that could have come pouring forth after losing Wilfork and Kelly. In the AFC, much to the benefit of the Patriots, fewer teams relied on the ground game as they did the pass, so potential deficiencies in their run defense were largely unexploited. As luck would have it, the Colts aren’t a stellar rushing team, so once again New England may be able to escape an otherwise disastrous defensive situation. Richardson is seen as the more powerful ball carrier and the best candidate to attack the heart of the New England defense, but his averages have bordered on atrocious and he has yet to establish himself as a reliable threat. Brown on the other hand has been the most consistent performer in the Indianapolis backfield but he has yet to receive more than 14 carries in any game this season, ultimately being limited by the play calling of his own team. With five touchdowns (three rushing, two receiving) in the last three games Brown is the strongest fantasy RB play on the Colts, but he will have only moderate value unless he is able to find his way into the end zone at least once, since nothing suggests that his touches will somehow approach 20 for the first time this year.

Projections:
Andrew Luck: 240 pass yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT / 20 rush yards
Donald Brown: 50 rush yards / 30 rec yards, 1 TD
Trent Richardson: 30 rush yards / 10 rec yards
T.Y. Hilton: 90 rec yards, 1 TD
Coby Fleener: 50 rec yards

Passing Game Thoughts: For all of the questions the Patriots have had to face this season there were a few things that were never in doubt, principally who the quarterback would be and who the leader of the team is. And now that the playoffs have once again made their way to Foxboro there is little mystery as to who holds New England’s key to postseason success and whose shoulders carry the weight of the team: Tom Brady. Of the 96 possible games that could have been played by the top six Patriots receivers, they combined for a total of only 67 contests, with leading receiver Julian Edelman the only one to suit up for every game this season; the remaining five were available for only 51 of their potential 80, or just over 63.7 percent of their possible appearances. That doesn’t even account for two of the three leading receivers from last year not playing with New England this season. Brady was called upon to not only hold the offence together but to find a way to succeed in the face of adversity, and considering that the Patriots earned a first-round bye, he seems to have held up his end of the bargain. Though winning the division and earning a week of rest have nearly become expected for New England, so without making it to the Super Bowl it will be hard for the Patriots to view this season as a success. On the field New England finished as a top ten passing offense by averaging 255 yards per game in the regular season and Brady throwing the seventh fewest interceptions in the league despite attempting the seventh most passes. The Patriots had five different receivers record between 425 and 635 yards in addition to having Edelman break 1,050; all six top pass catchers scored at least two touchdowns and Edelman again led the way with six scores. With Brady distributing the ball and a collection of receivers all capable of making plays, New England has been able to navigate the regular season without a clear-cut star, making them potentially one of the most difficult teams to defend against since any or all of the pass catchers may be the primary threat on any given play.

Possibly the most overlooked and underestimated of all the playoff pass defenses is the team from Indianapolis, who with a collection of equally overlooked and underestimated defensive backs steadily put together an above-average unit, allowing the seventh fewest touchdowns during the regular season and finishing in the top half of nearly all major pass defense categories. In many ways they were good enough to avoid ridicule and suspect enough to escape praise, but last week they allowed 378 passing yards and four touchdowns to Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith while recording no interceptions and only two sacks (including one sack-fumble), so their perception as an above-average pass defense was certainly challenged. In most areas the Patriots were statistically better than the Chiefs, and their collection of receivers, even after injuries, is believed to be the better unit, so Indianapolis is likely to once again be given all they can handle in the divisional round, much as they were last week. This time, however, they’ll be doing so on the road, outdoors, against a quarterback with experience in multiple Super Bowls and a team that has had an extra week to rest and prepare. If the New England offensive line is able to neutralize defensive end Robert Mathis (the league leader with 19.5 sacks, who also has nine forced fumbles) it will go a long way to slowing down the Colts pass rush, though because he’s been equally effective from both the left and right sides of the defense, both left tackle Nate Solder and right tackle Marcus Cannon are likely to be tested throughout the contest. Only once was Mathis held without a quarterback pressure, three times he had two or fewer, and on four occasions he failed to record a sack, so while other teams have been able to keep him in check or even shut him out entirely, those occasions don’t come around very often.

Running Game Thoughts: The perception of New England as an up-tempo passing juggernaut is only half true, as their no-huddle offense is often used to catch defenses off balance and put the Patriots running backs in the most advantageous situations possible, which is one of the reasons why they’ve rushed for the second most touchdowns (19) in the league. This aspect of the offense has seen its share of struggles too this season; between injuries (Shane Vereen) and fumble issues (both Stevan Ridley and LeGarrette Blount) the Patriots running backs have lacked individual consistency, but as a group they have been generally reliable for the vast majority of the year. In recent weeks Blount has emerged as the top ball carrier, Ridley has seen a fair number of carries as well, and Vereen has received occasional carries but has been the most active in the passing game. At various points of the season all three have broken triple digits on the ground, so the biggest question comes from their use and how Belichick and Brady choose to involve the running backs in the various stages of the game. While none are exceptional fantasy plays, Blount has the best chance for a big outing based on the volume of touches he is likely to receive. He is followed by Vereen, who can contribute on the ground as well as being the primary pass-catching back. And Ridley has the least upside of the trio, as he is often behind both of the others in their respective areas of the game plan. Ultimately, the most productive back will be the one who is on the field at the right time, whenever that may be, since the best weapon in the rushing attack comes from Brady and his abilities to change plays or speed up the tempo of the offense while at the line of scrimmage.

In addition finding a way to slow down the Patriots top ten passing attack with an above-average pass defense, Indianapolis will have to slow down a top ten ground game with their bottom ten rush defense. The Colts give up 125.1 rushing yards per game and have surrendered 14 touchdowns, barely escaping the bottom ten in that particular category. Only seven teams allow more yards per rush than Indianapolis, and that comes after playing eight regular season games against teams ranked eighteenth or worse in run offense. Excluding a meaningless season finale against Jacksonville, the Colts defense gave up 138.0 yards per game following their bye in Week 8 and gave up an additional 150 rushing yards to the Chiefs during wildcard weekend. Part of the problem they have defending the run is that they spend a fair amount of time in a 2-4-5 nickel defense, giving them more speed to defend the pass but removing larger bodies that are better able to defend the run. Considering how Brady frequently employs the no-huddle to opportunistically switch to the run, especially when the defense is caught with a pass-heavy personnel package, the Colts tendency to defend from the nickel will likely result in higher efficiency from an already productive New England ground game.

Projections:
Tom Brady: 260 pass yards, 2 TDs
LeGarrette Blount: 70 rush yards, 1 TD
Stevan Ridley: 50 rush yards
Shane Vereen: 20 rush yards / 40 rec yards
Julian Edelman: 80 rec yards, 1 TD
Danny Amendola: 50 rec yards

Prediction: Patriots 33, Colts 30 ^ Top

49ers at Panthers - (Caron)

Passing Game Thoughts: Prime time players show up in prime time spots and since becoming the San Francisco 49ers starting quarterback midway through the 2012 season, Colin Kaepernick has certainly become just that. Although he completed just over 50 percent of his passes and threw an interception, Kaepernick made his fantasy owners happy when he threw for 227 yards and a touchdown; but more importantly ran for 98 yards—his highest total of the season. Joining his quarterback with a nice fantasy day was wide receiver Michael Crabtree whose eight receptions for 125 yards were both game highs against the Packers. For Crabtree, it was his second 100-yard performance in three weeks. He seems to be getting into a groove again after a torn Achilles tendon kept him out for the majority of the regular season. Anquan Boldin was a bit disappointing as he caught just three passes for 38 yards. This is a significant drop-off from the first time these teams met this season when Boldin caught 13 passes for 208 yards and a touchdown in his first game as a 49er. Tight end Vernon Davis saved what would have otherwise been an ugly fantasy day when he caught a 28-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter.

With the cold weather of Green Bay now in the rear view mirror, the 49ers can concentrate and prepare for a game in a climate that is expected to be significantly more moderate. Unfortunately that won’t necessarily mean better fantasy production, as they will be up against one of the league’s best defenses. The Carolina pass defense has been exceptional all season, forcing more interceptions (20) than they allowed touchdowns (17). Not only that, but it has been extremely rare that they have allowed an opposing quarterback to put significant fantasy points on the board. Only twice all season did Carolina allow more than one passing touchdown in a game and both of those came on the road against division rivals. In the divisional round of the playoffs, the 49ers will have to travel to Carolina, a place where opposing quarterbacks threw just six total touchdowns all season. The Carolina secondary is not full of extraordinarily talented players, but with the pressure created by the front seven, this defense has been rock solid all year and that won’t likely change against the likes of Colin Kaepernick, who has been shaky at times throughout the year. If there is a player who could break through this tough defense, it might be tight end Vernon Davis. Although Carolina has the No. 2 fantasy defense in the league against opposing passing games, they actually check in at just 18th against the tight end position. Nine of their 17 passing touchdowns allowed have come against tight ends and Davis is known for being one of the best red zone targets in the entire league.

Running Game Thoughts: With the frigid temperatures of Lambeau field causing some timing issues with the San Francisco passing game, the defending NFC champions relied heavily on their veteran tailback Frank Gore to carry them to the next round of the playoffs. Gore’s 3.3 yards per carry average are nothing to get excited about, but the fact that the team gave him 20 carries for the third time in four weeks just shows that they are not shying away from the run even if it seems to be less than explosive. Gore’s increased workload late in the season does give us some answers as to why the team seemed to keep his touches down during the mid-part of the season. Keeping a player like him fresh for the playoffs is extremely important and it will be even more important as San Francisco plays the clock control game in the playoffs. Although he’s only been over 100 yards rushing once since Week 7, Gore has been and should continue to be one of the most important aspects to the 49ers offense.

Gore will face one of the very best defenses in the entire league. The Carolina Panthers allowed just three rushing touchdowns to opposing running backs all season and have not allowed an opposing back to run into the end zone since all the way back in Week 11. It hasn’t just been that they have kept the running game out of the end zone, either. Carolina has done an exceptional job of just keeping them off of the fantasy scoreboard. Only five times in 16 games did an opposing team’s running backs accumulate over 10 fantasy points against this defense. Fortunately there is a bright spot for Gore owners, as they did slip up a bit late in the season, allowing both the Jets and Saints running backs to eclipse 100 yards on the ground against them in Weeks 15 and 16. Still, if there is going to be a big fantasy day from Gore, it’s likely going to have to come in the form of workload. If he can get 20 carries again, it’d be almost impossible for Gore to not be of some use to fantasy teams. The question will really become whether or not the 49ers can occupy the ball long enough to get him that many carries. With Carolina also being a team that likes to run the ball, getting Gore to 20 touches could be easier said than done.

Projections:
Colin Kaepernick: 215 pass yds, 2 TD, 1 INT, 30 rush yds
Frank Gore: 60 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Michael Crabtree: 70 rec yds
Anquan Boldin: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Vernon Davis: 60 rec yds, 1 TD

Passing Game Thoughts: Another regular season in the books and Cam Newton has once again proven himself to be one of the elite fantasy producers in the entire league. The third-year quarterback finished fifth among quarterbacks in fantasy scoring for the 2013 season despite the fact that he threw for 300 yards just once. As has been his calling card since his rookie season, Newton really made his money on the ground where he ran for 585 yards and six touchdowns. Although those numbers were both the lowest of his career, Newton was able to develop as a passer, particularly in the red zone, and threw for a career-high 24 touchdowns on the year. Wide receiver Steve Smith took a step back this season as he caught just 64 passes for 745 yards and four touchdowns while tight end Greg Olsen stepped up and became Newton’s favorite target; catching 73 passes for 816 yards and six touchdowns—all team highs. Two other receivers, Brandon LaFell and Ted Ginn, also stepped up in 2013, but they haven’t been on the regular season fantasy radar. The Carolina passing game as a whole has been predictably unpredictable, but the fact that Newton has been utilizing four different receivers roughly equally makes them tough to completely shut down.

If there is a team that can do it, though, it might be the San Francisco 49ers as their defense has been dominant all season. Since allowing three touchdowns through the air to Aaron Rodgers and the Packers back in Week 1, San Francisco has not allowed any other quarterback to throw more than two touchdowns in a single game this season. This includes this past week when they held Rodgers and the Packers to just 177 yards and one touchdown through the air. It is worth noting that the 49ers have allowed five 300-yard passers against them this season, but the average pass attempts by opposing QB’s in those contests was 43.6. Although Newton is clearly the player that this offense is built around, the team still doesn’t allow him to throw the ball anywhere near that much. In fact, he has not even attempted 40 passes since all the way back in Week 10 of the 2011 season. San Francisco is an excellent defense that should do a good job of keeping Newton in check, but he is still a player who is capable of having a decently productive fantasy day.

Running Game Thoughts: He’s not the beast that we saw back in 2008 and 2009 but DeAngelo Williams is still a productive fantasy contributor, especially when the choices are as limited as they are in the playoffs. Williams averaged a respectable 4.2 yards per carry this year, but also became a more active member of the passing game as he caught 26 passes for a career-high 333 receiving yards. Unfortunately he had to share the backfield with two of the better goal line runners in the league, Mike Tolbert and quarterback Cam Newton, so Williams checked in with just three rushing touchdowns on the year. Tolbert only rushed for 361 yards on the year, but he played the past of a true goal line vulture as he scored seven total touchdowns. With Jonathan Stewart now healthy and expected to play this weekend, this crowded backfield is not one that is likely to provide a whole lot of fantasy numbers in the divisional round of the playoffs.

That rings especially true when you consider that they will be up against one of the very best defenses in the league, the San Francisco 49ers. After a rough start to the season where they allowed an average of nearly 100 rushing yards per game through their first six games, the 49ers have buckled down and reestablished themselves as an elite rushing defense. Since Week 6, the 49ers haven’t allowed a single team’s running backs to eclipse 100 yards on the ground. A week ago, they held Green Bay’s standout rookie running back Eddie Lacy to just 81 yards and 3.9 yards per carry. Most importantly, they held him out of the end zone. None of this bodes well for the Carolina running backs who are among the most inconsistent in the league with their week-to-week production. With this likely being a fairly low-scoring game where both teams will try to protect their quarterbacks, expect plenty of attempts from Williams and Tolbert with Stewart mixed in every once in awhile.

Projections:
Cam Newton: 250 pass yds, 1 TD, 30 rush yds, 1 rush TD
DeAngelo Williams: 50 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Mike Tolbert: 25 rush yds, 1 TD, 10 rec yds
Steve Smith: 60 rec yds
Brandon LaFell: 55 rec yds
Ted Ginn: 45 rec yds
Greg Olsen: 70 rec yds, 1 TD

Prediction: Panthers 24, 49ers 20 ^ Top

Chargers @ Broncos - (Anderson)

Passing Game Thoughts: While Philip Rivers has had one of the best years of his career and finished the regular season among the top five quarterbacks in most major categories, the Chargers may actually prefer to have him throw less in this week’s game. In the two previous games in which these teams met this year, the Chargers actually won the game in which Rivers attempted and completed fewer passes and gained less yards through the air. In addition, Rivers only attempted 16 passes last week against the Bengals in their 27-10 road victory to get them to this game. It seems for the Chargers the winning formula is not to have Rivers throw the ball 35 or more times but instead run the ball that amount, play solid defense and be efficient in the few passes Rivers actually attempts. In this way, the Chargers can manage the clock better and keep the Broncos' high-powered offense off the field and out of rhythm. This formula looks good on paper and was effective a few key times this year, but if Manning and the Broncos get hot early, all bets are off. What also makes the Chargers' probable “control the clock” game plan cloudy is the health of running back Ryan Matthews' ankle, which he re-aggravated last week and missed most of the second half as a consequence. While Matthews is expected to play, it is doubtful he will be near 100 percent, and therefore we may see more of Danny Woodhead and Ronnie Brown, neither of which should really scare the Broncos on the ground. If Rivers is forced to pass more than the Chargers want him to, look for more two–tight end sets, with both Antonio Gates and the emerging Ladarius Green setting up the defense to come in to defend against the run while running deep up the seam.

While the Broncos pass defense is generous at giving up yards (6th most in the NFL), it is also capable of making big plays (12th in interceptions, 13th in sacks) and forcing quarterbacks into making bad passes (6th lowest completion percentage allowed). It would be a mistake for the Chargers get into a shootout with the Broncos, so look for the pace of the game, at least to start, to be slower on the Chargers' end, with lots of runs, dump-off passes and short slant routes. If this style seems to work early in the game, it may set up a few deep tries to one of the aforementioned tight ends or to Keenan Allen, who caught two touchdowns the last time these teams met. Overall, this specific matchup is a small advantage for the Chargers but one where they might get themselves in trouble if they try to exploit it too early or too often. Fantasy-wise Rivers is a decent option because he may have to play catch-up late in the game and therefore may accumulate decent yardage, although I do not expect a ton of scoring from him. But I would actually steer clear of all Chargers receivers as anything near first-rate options, as Rivers spreads the ball around a ton, Allen will draw tough coverage, and it is hard to predict which of the two tight ends (if either) will go off for a decent game. This passing unit, in fantasy terms, is a boom or bust unit this week, but I would lean more towards the bust given all the circumstances.

Running Game Thoughts: As is often the case, there is both good and bad news for the Chargers run game in this matchup. The good news is that they actually have a solid run game and it has been on relative fire the second half of the season. The last time the Chargers and Broncos met, the Chargers won in large part because their run game was so effective, with Ryan Matthews running for 127 yards and a touchdown and the rest of the team adding another 50 yards on the ground. Against the Bengals last week it was again the run game that led the way, gaining 196 yards and adding two touchdowns en route to victory. With a proven formula on how to win games (see passing game notes), the Chargers have the potential to control the clock, slow down Peyton, and perhaps eek out a victory. The bad news is that Matthews reinjured his ankle last week, the Broncos are well-rested and prepared (the Chargers are on the road again), and the Broncos run defense, despite the stats the last time these teams met, is actually pretty good.

On the season the Broncos gave up the seventh fewest yards on the ground, held opposing running backs to just under 4.0 yards per carry, allowed a long run of just 35 yards (4th best in the NFL), and forced nine fumbles (5th most in the NFL). While the Broncos did let up 15 rushing touchdowns (8th most), that was really the only thing that saved opposing fantasy backs, as they let up only one 100-yard game to any single back (Matthews). While the game plan in this meeting will almost certainly be for the Chargers stick with the run as long as possible, it is hard to see them being afforded that opportunity for too long, with Matthews likely limited and Peyton likely ending most drives with some sort of points. While the Chargers run game was surprisingly impressive and much improved this year, it is likely they are just too beat up and simply up against a better team this week. While I do not believe the Chargers will get blown out, playing from behind much of the game usually does not yield great results for a run game. For fantasy purposes Matthews is a risky option because of his injury and because Woodhead usually takes over in passing scenarios. So I do not like any Chargers RB this week as a top four option at the position—except for Woodhead in a PPR league. It seems to me that the wheels may be coming off this week.

Projections:
Philip Rivers: 230 pass yds, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
Ryan Mathews: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds
Danny Woodhead: 35 rush yds, 45 rec yds
Keenan Allen: 45 rec yds, 1 TD
Antonio Gates: 45 rec yds
Ladarius Green: 50 rec yds
Eddie Royal: 35 rec yds

Passing Game Thoughts: In the midst of a record-setting year Peyton Manning now gets an opportunity for revenge against one of the few teams to beat the Broncos and hold Manning to fairly pedestrian numbers in doing so (289 pass yds, 2 TDs, 1 INT). The Chargers will look to duplicate what they did against Manning in that game, pressuring him up front and changing up their defensive looks as the play clock is about to expire, forcing Manning into uncomfortable reads. In that game the Chargers offense also played a part in slowing Manning and the passing attack down by running the ball 44 times for 177 yards (most against Denver all year) to keep the ball out of Peyton’s hands and take away some rhythm. Could that possibly work again this week? In theory it could, but in reality it is unlikely. The Chargers pass defense was one of the worst in the league for most of the year, ranking 29th in yards allowed and completion percentage and 30th in yards per pass attempt. In addition, they did not rank very high in sacks or interceptions, making them nearly a dream matchup every week in fantasy terms.

With two games played against their division rival this year Peyton Manning now has a ton of game footage to study and has had two weeks to do so, while the Chargers were busy playing the Bengals last week. With a legendary work ethic and preparation and an extra week to heal up some injuries, Manning should be in top form this week, and the chance of a repeat of the Chargers win the last time these two teams met is slim to none. With no extreme weather in the forecast it should be all systems go for this passing attack, which ranked first in the NFL all year. Fantasy-wise Manning is the top choice at QB this week, as he has not only the best matchup but also the best group of weapons around him—as well as a defense that should give up some points, allowing him to throw for all four quarters. Wes Welker, Eric Decker, Julius Thomas, and Demaryius Thomas are all viable options this week, and while they cannot all break out big in this game, it is likely that they all have solid efforts, with most likely two of them having big-time weeks. Personally I would rank the WRs in the order of Thomas, Welker, Decker, but they are all close and all three are top eight options this week. As for Julius Thomas, I would rank him behind only Jimmy Graham this week, and even that is close considering the defense Graham will be facing. Look for JT to find the end zone at least once this week. For both fantasy and real-life purposes, this is an offensive unit that should go off this week and keep the scoreboard operator busy.

Running Game Thoughts: While the Broncos passing game gets most of the press, the run game this year has been excellent and Knowshon Moreno has re-emerged as a legitimate NFL running back. The Chargers run defense ranked 12th in rushing yards allowed on the season, but that rank is deceiving because the 4.6 yards per carry they allowed puts them in 27th. Basically teams were not running a lot against them, but when they were, they were usually pretty successful. Even last week, in a game dominated by the Chargers, the Bengals running attack was able to put up 113 yards on 25 carries (4.5 ypc) while Giovani Bernard was able to add another 73 yards receiving. While the Broncos are once again likely to go pass heavy here, there are a few things that favor Moreno and his backfield mates. First, it is very possible that the Broncos are playing with a substantial lead in the fourth quarter, which could mean some garbage time yards. Second, with the Chargers so intent on trying to slow down Peyton, there should be some nice big holes in the first two levels of the defense that Moreno and company should be able to exploit.

From a fantasy perspective, the only thing I would be concerned about with Moreno is the fact that Montee Ball has increased his workload, and with the coaching staff likely concerned about Moreno’s freshness for the remainder of the playoffs (Moreno is over 300 touches on the year), it is possible that Ball gets an extended look, especially in “run the clock out” mode. Either way, the Broncos ran the ball only 11 times total in their loss to the Chargers earlier in the year, and there is no way they let that come close to happening again. In my personal rankings of fantasy RBs, Moreno trails only Marshawn Lynch this week, and that is mostly because of the fear of Ball getting a heavier workload than usual. Start Moreno with confidence as a top option who should easily get 20 or more touches. Ball is a boom-or-bust pick this week, and for that reason I have him ranked just outside of the top 10, but he could perform better if the game becomes a blowout in Denver’s favor. Overall, this is a unit that should perform well this week with fairly fresh legs at home against a defense that is not good at stopping the run.

Projections:
Peyton Manning: 305 pass yds, 3 TDs, 1 INT
Knowshon Moreno: 75 rush yds, 1 TD, 15 rec yds
Eric Decker: 70 rec yds
Demaryius Thomas: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Wes Welker: 75 rec yds
Julius Thomas: 70 rec yds, 1 TD
Montee Ball: 45 rush yds, 10 rec yds

Prediction: Broncos 34, Chargers 27 ^ Top