Running Backs

Always start your studs: Adrian Peterson, Chris Johnson, Arian Foster, Michael Turner, Rashard Mendenhall, Ray Rice, Frank Gore, Maurice Jones-Drew, and Ahmad Bradshaw. If Darren McFadden surprises me with a good game against the Steelers, I’ll concede and add him to this list of must-starts—so no hate email (yet), please.

Start 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Outperform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Cedric Benson vs. BUF
Benson is 15th in the league with 69 yards a game, has just 3 TDs all year, and is averaging just 3.6 yards per carry. Plus, he did squat against the Colts’ 29th-ranked run defense last week. So why recommend him for this week? Well, forget that measly 29th-ranked run defense of Indy’s; the Bills and their league-worst run defense is in town this week. Buffalo gives up 167 yards and a TD per game. They are the only team to allow over 1,500 yards rushing this year, they give up the fifth-most 20-plus yard runs, and they allow the sixth-most points per game (27). So you should expect a lot of running and scoring from the Bengals and Mr. Benson. I mean, really, you can’t face the Colts and the Bills in back-to-back weeks and fail both times…can you?

Mike Tolbert vs. DEN
Why does Norv Turner have to make everything so hard? Choosing between Tolbert and rookie RB Ryan Matthews is like flipping a coin, which is what I did (okay, not really). Over the past three weeks Matthews has 31 carries for 100 yards and 1 TD, while Tolbert has 21 carries for 100 yards and 2 TDs. A better yards-per-carry average and more TDs gives Tolbert the edge. Denver has the 30th-ranked run defense, giving up 143 yards per game, and they’ve allowed the most TDs in the league (14). They’ve given up the fourth-most big plays and the second-most runs of 40 or more yards. For the year, Matthews is averaging 48 yards a game and Tolbert 44, but Tolbert has 7 TDs to Matthews’ 2. The Chargers throw first…and second…and third. But when they do decide to run come Monday night, they should have success against the woeful Broncos.

Jamaal Charles vs. ARI
Okay, now to contradict what I just wrote about Mike Tolbert facing the Broncos, I share with you the disappointing outing Jamaal Charles had last week against the same Denver team. He rushed 14 times, which is his season average, for 41 yards at 2.9 yards per carry—neither of those his season average (he averages 84 yards, which is seventh-best in the league, with a league-best 6.0 ypc). But last week was just an off week for Charles, although he did get you 80 yards and a TD receiving. This week, against another horrible run defense—the 28th-ranked Arizona Cardinals—Charles should bounce back nicely and get you big yardage and big points. The Cardinals allow 132 yards and a TD per game (their 10 TDs on the year is the third-most in the league) and have given up the third-most runs of 20-plus yards.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis vs. IND
BJGE is currently 25th in the league with 52 yards per game, but his 6 TDs rank seventh in the league. He did better than expected against the Steelers last week, with 87 yards rushing, and this week he should do better still. The Colts’ 133 yards per game ranks 29th in the league, and they give up 1 TD per game (a total of 9 this season for fifth-most in the league). They are the worst in the NFL in yards per carry (5.0) and big plays (12) allowed, and that trend should continue this week in New England. BJGE could have a big day.

Bench 'Em:
Running Backs Who Will Under Perform Relative To Their Draft Position And Recent Hype

Darren McFadden @ PIT
Well, the Steelers didn’t really come through last week, giving up 87 yards rushing and 36 yards receiving to New England RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, and this week they face an even better RB in Oakland’s Darren McFadden. McFadden leads the league in rushing with 108 yards per game. His 4 TDs leave something to be desired, but he’s still easily a top 5 RB this year. He has the second-most runs of 20-plus yards and the most 40-plus yard runs in the league, plus he’s averaging 5.4 ypc—second-highest among active starting running backs. But the Steelers still lead the NFL in run defense, giving up only 63 yards a game, a 2.8 ypc average, and just 4 TDs (third-best), and they still haven’t allowed a single run of over 20 yards. They play at home again this week after getting whipped by the Patriots there last Sunday night, and something tells me this will be a long, ugly day for the Raiders. It may be wise to leave McFadden on the sidelines this week.

Ronnie Brown @ CHI
Despite giving up a TD per game (9 total on the season for fifth-most in the league) and giving up the most 20-plus yard runs and the fourth-most big plays, the Bears have the second-ranked run defense. They give up just 83 yards a game and only allow 3.5 yards per rush, which is third-best in the league. They also have the most fumble recoveries (9) and give up the second-fewest points in the NFL (16 per game). This week they may be able to focus even more on stopping the running game, since the Dolphins start Tyler Thigpen at quarterback, so Brown’s 49 yards-per-game average might be dropping after this week. Brown has had a TD in each of the last two games but has also rushed just 21 times for 70 yards over that span, and it doesn’t look like much will change this week. I’d be very hesitant to play Brown against Chicago.

Knowshon Moreno @ SD
Moreno is averaging 60 yards per game, good for 22nd in the league, but he has only 2 TDs and is averaging only 3.7 ypc. The Chargers run defense ranks fourth in the league, giving up just 89 yards a game. They’ve allowed only four big plays, for third-best in the league, and allow 3.6 ypc, which is fifth-best in the league. They give up about a TD per game (7 on the year), which is about average, and their high-powered offense makes opposing teams throw more than they would like, which limits the number of rushes they face each game to just 25—the fifth-fewest number of runs per game in the league. Against Kansas City last week Moreno had a huge game, rushing 22 times for 106 yards and adding 50 yards and a TD receiving. You should not expect that to happen again this week.

Brandon Jackson @ MIN
Jackson is averaging 51 yards per game, which is 28th in the league, but he’s been consistent. He’s only rushed for more than 60 yards twice all year and has broken 70 yards just once when he “exploded” for a 115-yard game. Over his last four games he’s rushed for 53, 58, 55, and 42 yards, and while he did score twice last week (1 rushing, 1 receiving), that gives him just 4 total TDs for the entire year. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers has as many rushing TDs (3) as Jackson. Meanwhile, the Vikings sport the league’s ninth-ranked run defense, giving up exactly 100 yards per game on a 3.7 ypc average. They’ve allowed just 6 TDs and only 1 run of 40-plus yards all year. The Vikings as a team are still struggling, but their run defense remains solid and should make for a long day for Jackson.

Wide Receivers