In the second of a multi-part series we examine where the “public”
thinks a player should be ranked versus where an “expert”
ranks those same players. Today we cover wide receivers. The reason
we want to make this comparison is if we can find a large variance
between the public and experts, we can find bargains and conversely,
we can also spot where the public is overrating a player to avoid
paying too much.
We used the average of 2,693 mock drafts from June 10, 2022-June
20, 2022 on FantasyFootballCalculator.com as representing the
current public consensus and our highly-knowledgeable team at
FFToday.com projections from June 28, 2022 as our “expert.”
Below, you can find the comparison of the two rankings and there
is a lot we can learn from the chart.
The first thing I noticed was too many of the public think Calvin Ridley will play football in the NFL this season. Otherwise, how
do you explain him being the 38th wide receiver off the board?
He will not play due to his indefinite suspension for gambling
on the NFL last year (expected to be through the 2022 season).
I also noticed how, in general, the public prefers “well-known”
names versus rookies and lesser-known players. It will be a major
part of their downfall.
Here are a few examples;
DeAndre Hopkins is the 16th player off the public board despite
the fact he is expected to miss the first six games due to a suspension.
Our experts have him at No. 45. Which means if you like “Nuke”
for your playoff run, you would have to draft him well before
where he should go based on his production (40.2 ADP or end of
the fourth round) when his actual production is about an eighth-round
value.
The Eagles’ DeVonta Smith is being selected as the 27th
receiver off the board. That’s ahead of players like Darnell Mooney, Jerry Jeudy and Marquis Brown. I’m a die-hard Eagles
fan and even I know that’s a mistake. The Eagles have a
new No. 1 receiver in A.J. Brown and a quality receiving tight
end in Dallas Goedert which will make it very hard for Smith to
get the targets he needs to compete with the above three wideouts.
And while I expect the Eagles to pass the ball more than last
season (when they were the most run-first team in the league),
Smith’s target share shouldn’t increase.
The public still sees Michael Thomas as a star receiver and has
almost ignored the fact that he hasn’t played much football
in the past two seasons. They are also ignoring the additions
of a quality veteran like Jarvis Landry and the Saints’
first-round selection of Chris Olave. Given these question marks,
Thomas’ public rank of No. 17 seems far too high and our
experts rank him at No. 29.
Now let’s talk about the bargains.
Amon-Ra St. Brown is getting no respect from the public for what
he did last season. It’s likely because his season-long
numbers were pedestrian (ranked 22nd). But look deeper. From Week
1-9 he averaged 7.4 FPts/G on an average of 5.4 targets. From
Week 10 through Week 18 he averaged 16.2 FPts/G and nine targets.
Sure, they drafted Jameson Williams, a talented receiver out of
Alabama, but he won’t be ready to start the season (torn
ACL in January national championship game). The public is also
overestimating the value of D.J. Chark, who signed a one-year
“prove it” deal with the Lions.
As you can clearly see, the public doesn’t see the value
in a couple of rookies; Drake London and Olave. In Atlanta, the
only receiving options are London, tight end Kyle Pitts and hybrid
running back Cordarrelle Patterson. I’ve said in past writings
I thought London would have some trouble adapting to the size
and speed of defenders in the NFL as compared to the PAC-12, but
any receiver who is expected to see 100+ targets should be ranked
higher than 55th. Our experts have him producing 69-885-5 in his
first season for 184.5 fantasy points and 33rd at the WR position.
Ignore Mecole Hardman at your own risk. His targets have increased
each season with Patrick Mahomes from 41-to-62-to-83 last season.
Of anyone in the wide receiver room, Mahomes is likely the most
comfortable throwing to him as he’s the only one of the
top-four receivers on the depth chart that has caught a ball from
him in a game (JuJu Smith-Schuster played in Pittsburgh last season,
Marquez Valdes-Scantling was in Green Bay and rookie Skyy Moore).
Brandin Cooks has been a reliable receiver through the years
no matter who the quarterback. He’s been a 1,000-yard receiver
with Drew Brees, Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson. But he’s
also been a 1,000-yard receiver with Jared Goff and a combination
of Davis Mills and Tyrod Taylor last season. He’ll be a
1,000-yard receiver in 2022 in a wide receiver room consisting
of Nico Collins, Alabama rookie John Metchie and Chris Conley.
Yet, the public has him as barely a No. 2 receiver, the 24th receiver
off the board with a 57.7 ADP.
When you look over the chart below, recognize that when you see
a positive double-digit variance, unless you are in a draft with
other experts, you can likely get the player a round below where
you believe his true value lies. Conversely, a receiver with a
negative double-digit is likely going a full round ahead of your
expected value. If you still want him, you will have to reach
for him.
