Let's be clear about one thing: it is tough on the fantasy streets
right now. Every year is the "worst it has ever been" at some point
regarding injuries, but I struggled to remember a time in which
it was so difficult to field a competitive lineup leading into the
first bye week of the season. (I have 20-plus teams and virtually
every roster is feeling the impact, even though I diversified as
much as I could during draft season.) The problem is that it is
much worse for others out there. I did not draft any Tyreek
Hill and only had one redraft share of Malik
Nabers.
If you had the misfortune of drafting even one or two disappointing
players, you might be down to 11 realistic options to fill a 10-player
starting lineup. (I have one team with two players on a bye -
including Bijan
Robinson - five players on real-life IR and only two IR spots.)
When it gets to that point, fantasy football stops becoming fun
and starts becoming agonizing work. What makes things worse is
when you cannot IR a player in fantasy because his real team can't
or won't do it.
If you were the unfortunate soul to draft an "injury-prone" player
such as Christian
McCaffrey or Puka
Nacua, a player who did not report to his team until right
before Week 1 (Quinshon
Judkins), a player who was dealing with a calf injury the
week of his team's opener (De'Von
Achane), a good receiver in a bad offensive environment (Jaxon
Smith-Njigba) or a player who has burned all of us before
(Quentin
Johnston), you are probably in great shape.
No single analyst or column is going to be able to fix all of
your problems this week if you have one or more teams with even
two or three of the players I mentioned earlier. What I can do
and what I have chosen to do this week and next is evaluate the
running back landscape after four weeks. Perhaps by briefly (and
I do mean briefly) analyzing each team's situation, we can gain
some sort of appreciation for what each team is offering. This
week, we look at the 16 AFC teams.
Before doing that, however, I want to detail the running back
rooms for each team and the roles I expect them to occupy for
the foreseeable future.
Each AFC Team's Running Back Room
and Roles
Tm
RB1
RB2
RB3
Early
3D
2M
LDD
GL
BAL
Derrick Henry
Justice Hill
Rasheen Ali
Henry
Hill
Hill
Hill
Henry
BUF
James Cook
Ray Davis
Ty Johnson
Cook
Johnson
Split
Split
Cook
CIN
Chase Brown
Tahj Brooks
Samaje Perine
Brown
Brown
Split
Brown
Brown
CLE
Quinshon Judkins
Jerome Ford
Dylan Sampson
Judkins
Ford
Ford
Judkins
Judkins
DEN
J.K. Dobbins
RJ Harvey
Tyler Badie
Dobbins
Dobbins
Split
Split
Dobbins
HOU
Nick Chubb
Woody Marks
Joe
Mixon
Chubb
Marks
Marks
Split
Chubb
IND
Jonathan Taylor
DJ Giddens
Tyler Goodson
Taylor
Taylor
Taylor
Taylor
Taylor
JAC
Travis Etienne
Bhayshul Tuten
LeQuint Allen Jr.
Etienne
Allen
Etienne
Etienne
Etienne
KC
Isiah Pacheco
Kareem Hunt
Brashard Smith
Split
Hunt
Pacheco
Split
Hunt
LAC
Omarion Hampton
Hassan Haskins
Hampton
Hampton
Hampton
Hampton
Hampton
LV
Ashton Jeanty
Raheem Mostert
Zamir White
Jeanty
Split
Jeanty
Jeanty
Jeanty
MIA
De'Von Achane
Ollie Gordon II
Jaylen Wright
Achane
Achane
Achane
Achane
Gordon
NE
Rhamondre Stevenson
TreVeyon Henderson
Antonio Gibson
Stevenson
Stevenson
Stevenson
Stevenson
Split
NYJ
Breece Hall
Braelon
Allen
Isaiah Davis
Hall
Davis
Split
Split
Davis*
PIT
Jaylen Warren
Kenneth Gainwell
Kaleb Johnson
Split
Split
Gainwell
Split
Warren
TEN
Tony Pollard
Tyjae
Spears
Julius Chestnut
Pollard
Pollard
Pollard
Pollard
Pollard
Key:
Early - Early down work
3D - Third down
2M - Two-minute drill
LDD - Long down and distance
GL - Goal line/short yardage
* - My projection given a recent injury
Baltimore Ravens
The roles in Baltimore have been well-established since Derrick
Henry joined the team before the start of last season. He
handles the overwhelming majority of early-down work and will
occasionally get a screen pass thrown his way. Third-downs and
most of the passing-down work goes to Justice
Hill. The only thing that usually keeps Henry from being a
dominant force is negative game script, which is something the
Ravens don't find themselves in very often. Then again, one of
the reasons they will occasionally fall behind in games is because
they don't commit enough to Henry in the first place. Baltimore's
current issues have more to do with injuries, however.
I am working under the impression that Lamar
Jackson's likely absence for the next game or two will force
the Ravens to rely more heavily on Henry and Hill because I am
not sure they stand much of a chance if they ask Cooper
Rush to carry the offense against the Texans or Rams over
the next two games.
Buffalo Bills
Buffalo running backs have accounted for 94 carries and 20 targets
through four games. James
Cook has handled 80 percent of the rush attempts and 65 percent
of the targets.
Cincinnati Bengals
Cincinnati running backs have amassed 67 rush attempts and earned
17 targets. Chase
Brown has accounted for 85 percent of the carries and 82 percent
of the targets. If/when this offense starts clicking, Brown will
almost certainly be the one accounting for most of the production
coming out of the backfield then as well.
Cleveland Browns
Cleveland running backs have totaled 42 carries and 13 targets
over the two weeks since Quinshon
Judkins assumed the starting role. Judkins has 39 of the carries
and six of the targets. Jerome
Ford is still getting most of the third-down/passing-game
work, but the two backs have the same number of targets over that
time.
Denver Broncos
J.K. Dobbins
has handled 66 percent of the carries in Denver's backfield so
far but is only responsible for seven of the 29 targets to Broncos'
running backs (24 percent). The rushing numbers are a bit deceiving,
however, since RJ
Harvey had not attempted more than six runs in any game before
closing out the team's Monday night rout of the Bengals in Week
4 (14). Over the first three games of the year, Dobbins was responsible
for 75 percent of the backfield's rush attempts.
Houston Texans
Woody Marks
has been a waiver-wire darling in each of the last two weeks.
He has already been trumpeted as a potential league-winner and/or
this year's Bucky
Irving. Slow your roll, people. Is he a fantastic pass-catcher?
Yes. Can he run the ball and does he possess big-play ability?
Yes. Could he overtake Nick
Chubb at some point soon? Yes. Is Chubb going away anytime
soon? Unlikely. Will the Texans play the Titans every week? No.
Will Houston's offensive line get any better this season? Doubtful.
While it is true that Marks has seen an increased role every week
to this point and will probably perform well against a beat-up
Baltimore defense in Week 5, it seems unlikely that he will have
the same success against the Seahawks (Week 7), what should be
a healthier San Francisco team (Week 8) and the Broncos (Week
9) following next week's bye. Can he make up for it with his usage
in the passing game? Sure. Some of it.
Marks' longest run before Week 4 was eight yards. Chubb's longest
run before Tennessee - outside of a somewhat fluky 25-yard TD
in Week 2 - was 13 yards. If the passing game continues to operate
at the level it has to this point, the Texans might need a prime
Earl Campbell to break a long run. (Or at least Chubb in his prime.)
Until the offensive environment changes somehow in Houston, it
is hard to see how this offense produces more than two flex options
at running back.
Indianapolis Colts
It has been the Jonathan
Taylor show all season long. He is responsible for 77 of the
93 carries out of this backfield (83 percent) and 14 of the 16
targets (88 percent). Of the 22 snaps backup DJ
Giddens has logged, 16 of them came in Week 1's rout of the
Dolphins.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Of the backfields that have been discussed so far, Jacksonville's
is probably most similar to Denver's. There is a rookie (Bhayshul
Tuten) who has shown he can do some interesting things, but
Travis Etienne
(like Dobbins) is running far too well to be part of a true committee
(6.1 yards per carry). Since Tank
Bigsby was traded after the opener, Jacksonville's backfield
has accounted for 69 rush attempts and 13 targets. Etienne is
responsible for 71 percent of the carries and has earned 54 percent
of the targets.
Kansas City Chiefs
The Chiefs may be 2-2 now, but their rushing attack has been
awful. For whatever reason, the coaching staff can't seem to get
over the "power element" that Kareem
Hunt brings to the table, even though Isiah
Pacheco averages more yards per carry (4.0-3.2), yards after
contact (90-73) and yards after contact per attempt (2.81-2.03)
on fewer rush attempts (36-32). Reports have surfaced this week
that the team intends to try to find more work for rookie Brashard
Smith, but the real question is: Why has it taken so long
to get to that point? It has to get better at some point, but
I am not sure it will happen against the Jaguars this week or
the Lions next week.
Los Angeles Chargers
Hassan Haskins
saw one snap in each of the first two games, followed by seven
and five in Weeks 3 and 4 (the game Najee
Harris got hurt and the one after it). He has yet to touch
the ball, which means Omarion
Hampton has accounted for all 37 of the backfield touches
since Harris was injured midway through the second half of Week
3.
Las Vegas Raiders
Ashton Jeanty
took advantage of a soft matchup last week against the Bears,
but it might be wise to sell him this week if possible. He will
have his good weeks - players with his amount of talent can sometimes
overcome their circumstances and/or a difficult matchup, but the
loss of LT Kolton Miller robs him of the one good run-blocker
the Raiders have. Maybe he dominates again in Week 6 against the
Titans, but matchups versus the Colts (Week 5) and Chiefs (Week
7) leading into the team's Week 8 bye do not appear promising.
If you hold Jeanty, you might be able to take comfort in the fact
that he is responsible for 80 percent of the backfield's rush
attempts. Unfortunately, only 47 percent of the backfield's targets
have gone his way.
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins' backfield is only averaging 17 carries per game.
De'Von Achane
is getting 12.5 of those. Miami is making up for it a bit with
32 backfield targets (third-most in the league), of which Achane
has 25 (78 percent). It seems abundantly clear that Miami wants
Ollie Gordon
II in the pounder/goal-line role, so Achane will have to continue
making his living via the 7.7 targets per game he was averaging
before last week.
Also, we cannot lose sight of how this offense will likely change
following the loss of Tyreek
Hill. Under HC Mike McDaniel, this offense was at its best
a few years ago when it had a dynamic run game and Raheem
Mostert handling most of the early-down work. While it is
possible Jaylen
Waddle ends up being a one-for-one replacement for Hill (or
at least his targets), it may make more sense for the Dolphins
to slow the game down and keep their defense off the field as
much as possible.
New England Patriots
This backfield has been a shot in the dark every week so far.
No back has handled more than 11 carries in any game. TreVeyon
Henderson was effectively benched in Week 2 for penalties
and some struggles in pass pro. Rhamondre
Stevenson and Antonio
Gibson were effectively benched after combining for three
fumbles in Week 3. What happened in Week 4? Stevenson finished
with 10 touches, Henderson with nine and Gibson with six.
Through four weeks, Stevenson has 42 touches, Henderson has 39
and Gibson has 20. Do with that information what you will. Henderson
was supposed to have established himself as the lead back by now
(and it will likely still happen at some point), but the stubbornness
of this coaching staff to get him more involved is aggravating,
to say the least. His touch totals (in order): 11, 5, 14, 9.
New York Jets
New York seems relatively content with Breece
Hall handling about 60 percent of the carries, which is something
I would expect to continue even after Braelon
Allen (knee) landed on IR this week. Hall's carry share in
four games - relative to his backfield mates - is as follows:
70, 83, 60, 67. It is a similar story in the target department
at 70 percent (19 of 27). At least for Week 5, it would not be
shocking if Isaiah
Davis ends up absorbing Allen's touches. Who gets Allen's
goal-line role is the big question. My guess would be that Davis
gets those opportunities.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The Steelers made it clear with Jaylen
Warren's extension on Sept. 1 that he will remain highly involved,
so it seems unlikely Kenneth
Gainwell earned much more work in Pittsburgh's backfield despite
his career-best performance in Ireland in Week 4. Over the two
previous weeks, Warren held carry advantages of 14-5 and 18-4.
He also had 10 targets to Gainwell's six. I also have sincere
doubts that Gainwell's efficiency from Week 4 sticks. There is
little evidence of him running consistently well during his time
as a pro and little evidence that this offensive line can consistently
block like it did against the Vikings. Even with Gainwell's 99-yard
effort on 19 carries in Week 4, the Steelers' backfield is averaging
3.6 yards per carry. The one thing that has kept Pittsburgh's
running backs relevant in fantasy is their 29 targets (fourth-most).
That is unlikely to change with Aaron
Rodgers' average depth of target standing at 4.8 through four
games - by far the lowest mark of any regular starting quarterback.
Tennessee Titans
It has been almost all Tony
Pollard through four weeks. It makes sense, however, since
Tennessee only has two backs on the 53-man roster as of Oct. 2.
Pollard has handled 68 of the backfield's 73 rush attempts and
nine of its 10 targets. It is a comical use of Pollard's talents,
however, as he is very good as a pass-catcher. The eventual return
of Tyjae Spears
(ankle) figures to change Pollard's workhorse status somewhat,
but we were promised similar things last season by the same coaching
staff and rarely ever saw Spears until Pollard was injured.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst
for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before
the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes
player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his
25 years in this hobby.