Since the beginning of December, Engram has had five games with
at least 5 catches, three games with double digit targets, two
100-yard games, and four games where he averaged at least 13 yards
per catch. He also has four touchdowns in that seven-game stretch.
He’s become a reliable target for QB Trevor Lawrence, and will
have to be an early check down option against a Chiefs defense
that can get after the QB (55 sacks are 2nd-most in the NFL this
season). But KC is also allowing almost 11.0 fantasy points per
game to TE’s over the last three weeks.
After throwing four INT on his first 16 attempts in the Wild
Card game against the Chargers, Lawrence went 18 for 23 for 211
yards and three touchdowns in the second half. Lawrence has been
a low end QB1 for most of the end of the season, and he could
be a good bargain play this week. The question is which version
of Lawrence shows up? He went 29/40 for 240-2-0; 4-26-0 in Jacksonville’s
27-17 loss against Kansas City back in Week 10. The Chiefs gave
up the most passing TDs (33) this season.
Despite scoring for the first time since Week 15, Jones saw just
six targets in a game where Trevor Lawrence threw the ball 47
times. He’s a last-ditch option in this offense behind Christian
Kirk, Zay Jones and Engram and not fantasy-relevant.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Toney has 115 total yards on nine touches from scrimmage over
the last two games, and he poses a threat in the punt return game.
He doesn’t have a lot of production beyond that, but he’s explosive
and seems like the type of player HC Andy Reid will look to use
in a variety of ways especially with Mecole Hardman (abdomen)
not expected to play. The volume isn't likely to be there for
Toney so you'll be taking a chance on his efficiency.
Smith-Schuster has posted three straight games of 35 yards or
less. He’s on the field for most of KC’s offensive snaps (73%
in Week 18) and is the assumed WR1, though he is solidly behind
TE Travis Kelce in all progressions. QB Patrick Mahomes’ ability
to spread the ball to a wide variety of weapons has put a low
ceiling on all of the Chiefs wideouts including Smith-Schuster.
The emergence of Jerick McKinnon has hurt Pacheco who's only
seen 19 touches in his last two games combined, and the fact that
Ronald Jones got a goal line call over Pacheco in the season finale
doesn’t bode well. The fact is, Andy Reid is more comfortable
with McKinnon in high-levarage situations, especially on third
down and won't be hesitant to lean on him more if this game is
close in the fourth quarter. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (ankle) was
back at practice this week but will not play.
It’s been a difficult season passing the ball for Daniel
Jones, but fans of the Giants quarterback should be excited about
what they saw in the wild card round against the Vikings. Minnesota’s
defense is terrible, but Jones completely torched them, completing
24 passes for 301 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Interestingly,
it was just Jones’ third 300-yard game of the season, but
two of those performances have come over his past three starts.
He’s been red hot as of late and a lot of that has come
alongside a true late-season breakout from wide receiver Isaiah
Hodgins. Hodgins has now scored in three straight contests and
five of his past six. He’s been an unlikely fantasy star,
but there’s no question that he’s the player Jones
is looking for frequently in the end zone. This is a tough matchup
against a very good Philadelphia defense, but if the Giants are
going to get the win as underdogs again this week, they’re
going to need big games out of Jones and Hodgins.
Saquon Barkley was used quite sparingly in the Giants’
victory over the Vikings, but he was still able to exceed 100
total yards and score two touchdowns on just 15 touches. We all
know what Barkley is capable of and he’s going to touch
the ball plenty enough to be started by most teams, but we need
to admit that this is a difficult matchup against a team that
has had a week off to recover. Barkley sat in the Week 18 matchup
between these teams and he actually had his fewest touches of
the season when they matched up back in Week 14, when he carried
the ball just nine times for 28 yards, adding only two receptions
in the passing game. The Giants were blown out in that game, however,
so expect Barkley to be more involved in this one, even if his
upside is limited much more than it normally is.
WR Richie James has quietly been quite consistent down the stretch
this season. He didn’t play in the Giants/Eagles game in
Week 18, but he otherwise scored double-digit fantasy points in
five of his final seven games of the regular season. He did perform
the worst of the Giants’ main wide receiver trio during
their wild card victory over the Vikings, but James is an under-the-radar
reliable option against the Eagles, whom he scored against back
in Week 14.
The breakout from Hodgins has really helped the Giants down the
stretch and the Giants’ passing game has really hit its
stride at the most important part of the season, so it’s
reasonable to have confidence in the other passing game options
like Slayton. He’s had his moments this season and could
certainly show up in this game, but it’s worth noting that
Slayton had one of his worst games of the season when he was targeted
just three times against the Eagles back in Week 14. He was the
team’s top pass catcher a week ago so there will probably
be quite a few people who look to him to repeat that performance,
but he’s been the worst of the Giants’ top three receivers
throughout most of the second half of the season.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
A.J. Brown has been the better player this season, but DeVonta
Smith has really flown under-the-radar during his big second half
of the season. He scored 13 or more fantasy points in six straight
games to end the regular season and that number stretches to nine
of his final 10 games. He’s really only had one truly dominant
week, against Dallas in Week 16 when he scored two touchdowns,
but his consistent production and high target share has been undeniably
impressive. Smith has been targeted at least eight times in nine
straight games, including two games against this very same New
York defense that he’ll be facing again here in the Divisional
Round.
Jalen Hurts missed Weeks 16 and 17 before returning to secure
an Eagles’ first-round bye for the playoffs in Week 18.
The Eagles were able to walk away with a win against a crew of
almost exclusively Giants backups, and while any game in the NFL
is difficult to win, fantasy managers have to be a bit worried
about what we saw from the quarterback. He threw for just 229
yards and no touchdowns with an interception, but more importantly,
he was held to just 13 yards on nine carries—his second-lowest
rushing performance of the season. We should have a bit more confidence
about Hurts’ health now that he’s had an extra week
to recover, but we can’t be completely confident that he’s
fully healthy heading into this game. He struggled against the
second and third-string units for the Giants, so a matchup against
the starters could be troublesome. Still, Hurts’ upside
is undeniable as he’s one of the few true difference-making
quarterbacks in fantasy and he did torch the Giants’ starting
defense when he was healthy and they played back in Week 14.
Running back Miles Sanders has had a rollercoaster season, but
his end to the regular season was about as bad as it can possibly
get. Following three straight impressive performances from Weeks
12 to 14, Sanders finished the year on a four-game streak where
he finished with fewer than seven fantasy points in every contest.
Some of this was to be expected as the Eagles were playing without
Jalen Hurts, or with a hampered Hurts, for three of their final
four games, but even still, his performances have to be concerning
for fantasy managers. It might be tempting to roll with Sanders
as he had one of his best fantasy performances of the season against
the Giants win Week 14, but there’s a real chance that he’s
held to another dismal fantasy game this week, particularly if
Hurts is still hampered by injury.
While the stats were wiped from the much-anticipated Monday Night
showdown between these two clubs following the Damar Hamlin incident,
the one TD that had taken place was a pass from Burrow to Boyd.
The veteran was quiet in last week’s Wild Card win over Baltimore,
catching three passes for 26 yards, but if a team starting a third-string
rookie throws 45 times against the Bills you can bet that Cincinnati
will look to target Buffalo’s pass defense as well. While it’s
a toss-up as to who will get more chances this Sunday between
Boyd and Hayden Hurst as the No. 3 target, Boyd feels like the
better option of the two.
Hurst almost had a strong playoff debut for the Bengals. Almost.
Instead, he came up inches short of a receiving touchdown -- it
was initially ruled a score but ultimately was reversed upon review
-- and lost a fumble while fighting for extra yardage while being
well short of the sticks. He did finish second in receptions (4)
and yards (45), however, and fellow TE Mike Gesicki accounted
for Miami’s only passing touchdown against the Bills, which gives
the former first-round pick a risk/reward vibe here.
Fade: N/A
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
In his last three postseason games, Davis has accumulated 16
receptions, 355 yards, and a half-dozen touchdowns. Such high-level
production led Tony Romo to gleefully dub him “Big Game
Gabe” (and then repeat it every time he caught a pass).
We’ll see if it continues to hold true in the Divisional
Round. Recent history suggests otherwise with Davis’ 113
yards last Saturday representing his first 100-plus-yard effort
since Oct. 9, when he logged 171 yards and two TDs. Still, his
usage has ticked up with 19 targets in his past two games, and
he figures to see plenty of work with Diggs commanding double
teams from Cincinnati’s secondary. Davis is a high-upside
play.
There are two factors that will determine whether Singletary
delivers fantasy value this Sunday: 1) how much will Buffalo want
to run the ball after seeing Allen deal with some concerning turnover
issues against Miami?, and 2) how will the Bills divvy up the
work between Singletary and James Cook, who has five more touches
(23-18) over the past two games. If we see a healthy dose of the
run, and the team decides it wants to lean on the more experienced
hand, Singletary could deliver decent value. If it’s the Josh
Allen Show and/or the more powerful Cook gets the yeoman’s share
of the work, then there may be little left for Singletary.
You can make a good case that Lamb is a “No-Brainer”
this week given wide receiver is really the only weak spot of
the 49ers defense. The Cowboys are likely to struggle running
the ball against San Francisco’s top-ranked run defense,
especially if they’re intent on given the ball to Zeke 15
times. It might make coaching sense to come out with a pass-heavy
gameplan, featuring Dak Lamb, Gallup, Schultz and company but
I doubt Mike McCarthy sees it the same way. Still, Lamb is a good
bet for 100 yards in this game as one way or another, the Cowboys
are going to be forced into throwing the ball.
Pollard may not get many opportunities in this game if Dallas
falls behind early and the running game sputters, which is very
likely against this tough San Francisco run defense. Pollard (58%)
did see a bigger snap share than Elliott (48%) last week, which
is encouraging and he is likely to be more involved in the passing
game should Dallas opt to throw the ball more than usual. Pollard
has the talent to break big plays which keeps him in consideration
this week but there are enough ceiling-restrictive aspects to
this game that keeps Dallas’ best RB in the RB2 conversation
instead of the RB1.
If you’ve watched the Cowboys this season, it’s clear
who the better running back is and it isn’t Zeke. He’s
looked explosive at times but those times have been few and far
between. His 3.8 yards per carry this season is the worst of his
career and he’s been a non-factor in the passing game with
just 17 receptions and 92 receiving yards. Now facing a defense
that’s given up the fewest amount of fantasy points to the
position, and it’s easy to see why Zeke should not be in
your lineup.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
The 49ers came out of the gate last week with a little change-up,
splitting McCaffrey out wide and using Deebo more in the running
back role. Once the second quarter hit, they settled in to more
of their traditional offense and by the end of game, Samuel had
9 touches for 165 yards and 1 TD. He was in on 77% of the offensive
snaps, making it safe to say there are no restrictions after returning
from his knee/ankle injuries. The Cowboys have solid against fantasy
running backs this season (only 6 TDs allowed) so it would make
sense for Kyle Shanahan to scheme up plays for Deebo in both the
pass and run game. I’d favor him over Aiyuk this week.
It’s quite remarkable what Kyle Shanahan has done for Purdy,
who despite some glowing press, is still making some understandable,
yet questionable decisions when throwing the ball. He got away
with two terrible throws behind receivers that could easily have
been picked off last week against Seattle. That being said, there’s
no doubt he’s performed well in this scheme and continues
to throw multiple TDs in every game he starts… seven games
in a row now. I’m concerned the Cowboys pressure may put
an end to that streak which would certainly impact Aiyuk who now
has a healthy Deebo back in the mix. Aiyuk has seen just five
targets in each of his last two games and with McCaffrey, Kittle
and Deebo all viable in the passing game, somebody’s going
to be left out.
