As I enter my 15th year of writing this postseason column, I hope
I have helped some of you along the way supplement your regular-season
fantasy prize winnings.
The first part of this week's column will be devoted to those
owners who participate in any format in which it is best or required
to keep the players you draft for the duration of the postseason.
The second half of the column is for owners who play in leagues
in which you reset your lineup each week, such as a salary cap
setup like DFS. Regardless of which format(s) you choose to play
in, my goal over the next four articles will be to help each of
you through your decision-making process as you attempt to boost
your bottom line.
Multi-Week Leagues
Below you will find 14 playoff teams ranked in order of the (percentage)
odds I believe they have of making the Super Bowl. I will spend
a bit of time after that attempting to nail the bracket before
talking a little DFS.
1. San Francisco (60%)
2. Baltimore (55%)
3. Cleveland (18%)
4. Buffalo (18%)
5. Dallas (15%)
6. LA Rams (10%)
7. Detroit (8%)
8. Philadelphia (5%)
9. Kansas City (5%)
10. Houston (2%)
11. Miami (1%)
12. Green Bay (1%)
13. Tampa Bay (1%)
14. Pittsburgh (1%)
With that out of the way, let us next focus on my week-to-week
playoff projections and then the players I feel are realistic
alternatives for this four-week sprint to the finish:
AFC - Wildcard: Bills over Steelers, Chiefs
over Dolphins, Browns over Texans NFC - Wildcard: Cowboys over Packers, Rams over
Lions, Eagles over Buccaneers
AFC - Divisional: Ravens over Browns, Bills
over Chiefs NFC - Divisional: 49ers over Rams, Cowboys over
Eagles
AFC - Conference Championship: Ravens over Bills NFC - Conference Championship: 49ers over Cowboys
Super Bowl: Ravens vs. 49ers
The rankings below are for those readers in leagues that require
you to draft players this week and keep them for the duration of
the postseason. The number inside the parentheses refers to how
many games I expect that player/unit to play.
Unsurprisingly, Tier 1 is filled with either elite fantasy options
and/or attached to Super Bowl favorites. Jackson may not consistently
deliver huge fantasy totals, but his ceiling is high enough for
a team that is perhaps the best bet of the field to make the Super
Bowl. Allen is so key to what Buffalo does offensively that ranking
him any lower than second above would be borderline insane. With
what should be a comfortable win against the Steelers and a very
likely matchup against a beatable Kansas City team, it feels safe
to project Allen for three games even though the Bills are not
clicking on all cylinders offensively. Purdy slots ahead of Prescott
only because I feel certain that San Francisco will make it to
the NFC Championship Game and believe the 49ers have a good chance
to win it all. I am not as confident Dallas will make it past
this weekend. Philadelphia's offense was struggling long before
Hurts injured the middle finger on his throwing hand, A.J. Brown
hurt his hand and DeVonta Smith missed the regular-season finale
due to an ankle issue. The Eagles could easily lose to the Bucs
and would seem to have little shot of beating the Cowboys in Dallas
given their issues defending the pass.
Outside of those fantasy playoff leagues where there are more
than eight teams, I can't imagine too many scenarios in which
I would consider any of the quarterbacks in Tier 3. Each quarterback
in Tier 2 has at least an outside chance of making a Super Bowl
run and/or enough weapons to be worth an investment - even if
his team only sticks around for two postseason games. Of this
group, Flacco sits atop the tier because I believe Cleveland has
a decent shot to make it to the big game. In fact, I believe the
Browns may be the only team that could beat the version of the
Ravens we saw at the end of the season. Flacco's volume should
make him a solid pick even if he only plays two games.
Stafford's spot above has more to do with the difficulty of his
first-round game (and overall path) than anything. While I am
willing to predict a win in Detroit, it is far from a given. I
also do not think the Rams are quite ready to topple a full-strength
San Francisco squad quite yet. It seems almost unthinkable that
Mahomes could be ranked eighth on any quarterback list, but Kansas
City's offense has performed at such a level for so long that
a home win against an injury-riddled Miami defense in likely frigid
conditions cannot be taken for granted. Even if the Chiefs somehow
win in Buffalo the following week, I have trouble believing Mahomes
will get much going against Baltimore (or Cleveland). In short,
his reputation is about the only thing keeping him out of Tier
3.
McCaffrey checks virtually every box for a player who should
be considered as the 1.01 in playoff fantasy leagues. He plays
in every situation, excels as a runner and a receiver, is the
primary option at the goal line and stands a great chance to play
in the Super Bowl.
Outside of players such as McCaffrey who appear to have everything
working in their favor, we want volume - as in games AND touches
- as opposed to just the touches we seek during the regular season.
Tier 2 is six players deep, although none of them possesses anything
close to the ceiling CMC does. Cook's second-half volume has been
exactly what fantasy managers hope for from running backs, but
his overall effectiveness has dropped dramatically over the last
three games. He is not the preferred option at the goal line either,
which makes him big-play dependent. Considering those big plays
have disappeared over the last three games, it seems unlikely
he will separate himself from his peers in Tier 2. Edwards is
essentially the opposite of Cook. He has the goal-line role in
Baltimore, but he does not get much work in the passing game and
his volume from week to week is inconsistent despite the fact
the Ravens are often winning by 10 or more points.
Pollard and Pacheco each offer enticing Wild Card upside. However,
the former has a similar profile to Cook and has been inefficient
for long stretches this season, while the latter could be done
after this week considering how poorly Kansas City has played.
Williams would be the easy pick for No. 2 overall on this list
were it not for his difficult upcoming matchup (no team silenced
running backs this season more than Detroit) and the likelihood
the Rams will get bounced by the 49ers next week. I would also
have no problem putting Ford at the top of this tier if I knew
HC Kevin Stefanski would commit to him and cut Hunt's playing
time. Alas, there has been no indication that will happen. Even
then, a game against the Texans' run defense and a likely matchup
against Baltimore does not bode well for a big fantasy effort.
Barring injury, Tier 3 is the last hope for meaningful fantasy
production from the running backs. Jones came on in a big way
late in the season, but I am not betting on Green Bay having much
success against Dallas and San Francisco in consecutive weeks.
Jones may be the best running back option this weekend, but one
potentially good game is not enough for me to take him over two
(or more) potentially average games from the previous tier. It
seems almost unthinkable that Swift managed to stay healthy all
season, enjoyed his first 1,000-yard rushing season and somehow
still disappointed. Much of his "failure" was the product
of him getting tackled at the 1-yard line as often as he did.
Still, the Tampa Bay defense is not one that typically gives up
a ton of rushing production. One look at Swift's results from
Week 12 until the end of the season also suggests there is not
a lot of reason for excitement. His most likely path to beating
this ranking is carrying a heavy load this week with all of the
injuries to his fellow offensive brethren in Philadelphia.
The rest of Tier 3 is filled with running backs who have reason
to believe they will play at least two games but probably will
not. Mostert's status is still up in the air, which obviously
makes Achane a highly volatile fantasy option. Miami's defense
is so beat up that predicting the Dolphins to make it through
this week seems reckless. The Sam LaPorta injury casts further
doubt on what was already a bad matchup for Detroit. If either
one of the Lions' runners is going to have success this weekend,
Gibbs would seem to be the one given his usage in the passing
game. For all the good that White did this year behind a limited
offensive line, he still fell short of 1,000 yards despite handling
272 rushing attempts. Volume in the passing game made him a viable
fantasy RB1, which will have to be the way he gets it done this
week. While the Eagles' run defense has fallen off in recent weeks,
this is still a unit that gave up only 3.7 YPC to running back
groups not led by McCaffrey or James Conner this season.
Sometime between their humbling defeat in Week 5 at San Francisco
and their first post-bye game in Week 8, the Cowboys realized
that giving their best player the ball more often might be good
for their immediate success. What followed may be one of the best
11-game stretches by a receiver in NFL history: 101 catches on
139 targets for 1,274 yards and 11 touchdowns. Yes, Lamb sits
atop the receiver board. His one potential bugaboo is the likelihood
Dallas will make it as far as the NFC Championship. Let's just
say I have fewer doubts about Dallas' ability to beat the Eagles
and Bucs than the Packers, Lions and Rams. Samuel and Aiyuk alternate
big performances often enough that they often can't touch Lamb's
ceiling, but the likelihood they will play at least one more game
than Lamb is strong enough to put them in the same tier.
There is a significant drop-off after the first three wideouts.
While Flowers does not belong in the same company as Diggs, Nacua
and Kupp, the rookie's last two games were a reminder that he
can perform at the same level as a Tier 1 receiver. He arguably
has the best chance of the bunch to reach the Super Bowl, which
enhances his value dramatically. Diggs' reputation alone should
be enough to get him into Tier 1, but fantasy managers have dealt
with two months of sub-standard production from him - a stretch
that started about the same time interim OC Joe Brady took over
for Ken Dorsey. At least one - if not two - Rams receivers should
have big days against Detroit. I am betting one of them will be
Nacua, who enjoyed enough success in the toughest matchups he
faced all season to make me believe he will have at least two
solid fantasy efforts this postseason.
Cooper will reportedly play this weekend, but consecutive DNPs
to start the practice week do not bode well for him to make a
huge impact this week. Rice has already done enough to prove he
can produce regardless of the matchup, but the combination of
Miami's front-seven injuries and the Chiefs' inability to sustain
drives makes me believe Kansas City will lean more on its running
game this weekend. Kupp figures to see just enough of rookie Brian
Branch in the slot to make me think Matthew Stafford will target
Nacua and Robinson more heavily. He might make up for it against
San Francisco next week, but I do not see a path to a huge postseason
run for the 30-year-old.
Tier 3 does not require much of an explanation. Each is a stud
and his team's alpha. A guarantee of two games from Hill and St.
Brown would push them into the top six of the position rankings.
Meanwhile, Brown needs to heal up fast and Philadelphia's offense
to rediscover its 2022 form. Making matters worse is that Jalen
Hurts (right middle finger) could find it difficult to throw the
ball accurately for the foreseeable future.
The top of Tier 4 presents fantasy managers with the last realistic
options at the position. Despite a mostly strong finish to the
season, Smith ranks this low because there is no guarantee he
will play against the Bucs due to an ankle injury. Considering
how poorly Philadelphia has played lately, there is also no guarantee
of a game next week either. Cooks gets the nod here primarily
because he has a decent shot to play three games, including a
pair at home (where he has been much better). Robinson has played
so well down the stretch that it would be surprising at this point
if the Rams did not bring the impending free agent back for at
least another season. Looking at just this postseason, he has
been far too involved in the offense to believe he will fall flat
in a favorable matchup against the Lions. He could also be the
player San Francisco chooses to pay less attention to if the NFC
West rivals meet for a third time this season next week.
Shakir has played at least 40 offensive snaps eight times since
Week 7. He logged at least 28 slot snaps in each of those games.
Over that span, he has produced at least 92 yards three times
and caught at least six passes twice. It is not the stuff of legend,
but it suggests he is on near equal footing with Gabe Davis at
the very least. With what appears to be an increasing role in
the offense, Davis potentially out for this week (knee) and almost
zero chance he will line up across from Joey Porter Jr. this week
or L'Jarius Sneed next week, Shakir could be on the verge of solidifying
a role as the top complimentary receiver in this offense. Not
only does he catch virtually everything (39 catches on 45 targets),
but he does a lot with the limited work he gets (15.7 YPC). The
next four players (Reed, Evans, Collins and Waddle) would move
up at least three spots if they were more likely to get past this
weekend.
***** I do not expect Sam LaPorta (knee) to play this week. Even
if he does, I expect him to be extremely limited.
While Kittle may never be as consistently productive as he has
shown in spurts because of the talent he has surrounding him,
perhaps no tight end in the game today boasts the same kind of
upside. He may put up two duds this postseason, but his resume
with Brock Purdy as his quarterback suggests he will shine at
least once between now and the Super Bowl. Likely has not scored
fewer than eight PPR points since taking over as the starter for
Mark Andrews in Week 12. In three of the four games that have
mattered to Baltimore since the Week 13 bye, he has topped 18
fantasy points. The only reason he does not take the top spot
here is the possibility of Andrews returning before the Super
Bowl - however unlikely that possibility might be.
For those readers who agree that Cleveland is a legitimate Super
Bowl contender, Njoku has a strong case to be in Tier 1. Playing
one less game than Kittle and Likely is the only thing keeping
him out. Kelce may have just finished off his worst season since
Patrick Mahomes took over in Kansas City, but let's not pretend
he is done just yet. Even during an uncharacteristic end to the
regular season (29-338-1 in seven games since the Week 10 bye),
Kelce was the overall TE4 in that stretch. Fresh off giving up
nine catches for 106 yards and a touchdown to Buffalo's tight
end group, a beat-up Miami defense could be a nice rebound spot
for Kelce this week. Ferguson has not found the end zone since
Week 13, while Kincaid has not done so since Week 10. While their
volume keeps them relevant at a weak position, it will be hard
for either one to make noise over the next month if they do not
see more looks in the end zone. The primary reason Goedert is
not any higher is that the Eagles are more likely to get knocked
out this weekend than the Cowboys or Bills.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. Please
note I have included DraftKings' dollar value for each player,
followed by his projected point total. Because I went into some
detail above, I will not spend a great deal of time explaining
each projection here - only some of the more notable ones. Each
position is sorted by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running
backs, receivers and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
With the lack of separation between my first-ranked (Hurts) and
eight-ranked (Stroud) quarterbacks, this appears to be a good week
to pay down at the position. Hurts and Allen were the best fantasy
quarterbacks yet again this season, but each player fell short of
their lofty numbers from last year. Of more concern to this week's
DFS players, neither signal-caller has delivered a slate-altering
performance in over a month. When we consider the current state
of Philadelphia's offense and the more balanced approach the Bills
are using under interim OC Joe Brady, it seems unlikely either player
will be worth spending paying up for this week.
The unfortunate part is that the discount on rolling with someone
like Prescott is not enough. The Dallas quarterback does not run
very much anymore, and I would be hesitant about projecting him
to throw for four touchdowns against a Green Bay defense that
allowed only one quarterback all season (Mayfield) to pass for
more than two. This brings us to the two quarterbacks I will most
likely lean on the most this weekend: Stafford and Flacco.
Detroit has struggled mightily to contain average or better passing
attacks, surrendering at least two TD throws nine times. Although
he also threw six interceptions in two games against the Lions,
Nick Mullens nearly passed for 400 yards in both late-season games
versus Detroit. Stafford may be the best bet of any non-Allen
or non-Hurts quarterback to top 20 fantasy points this week. I
see little reason why Cleveland will change its late-season approach
with Flacco under center. The Browns' Week 16 meeting with Houston
produced 368 passing yards and three TDs. While the Texans will
likely do a much better job of containing Amari Cooper this time
around, Stroud's presence could force this game to shoot out.
Even if it doesn't, Flacco is still a great bet to throw 40-plus
times.
Of the remaining options, I will have limited exposure to Goff
and Mayfield - but only as contrarian plays. If Houston still
had Tank Dell, I might be able to talk myself into inserting Stroud
in a few lineups. However, I have too much respect for Cleveland's
defense and his price point is considerably higher than two other
players (Stafford and Flacco) with much better matchups.
While I am not sure Pacheco is quite as obvious of a play as it
appears above, I am fairly convinced he will be the centerpiece
of Kansas City's offense against the skeleton crew of a defense
the Dolphins will have available in what is expected to be a bitter
cold game. Perhaps Edwards-Helaire plays the Jerick McKinnon role
and steals a short receiving score, but that should not change much
about how fantasy managers look at this game: make Miami's weakened
defense take body blows all game long in conditions that do not
suit its personnel. White's fantasy viability this week will likely
come down to whether he finds the end zone. He will do his usual
damage in the passing game, but Philadelphia's run defense is not
quite as bad as some have let on recently. Warren probably will
not finish as the RB3 this week, but there are enough questions
at the position that one big play might be all it takes for a running
back to crash the top five. Few possess more big-play ability than
Warren.
Pollard probably has the best combination of likely workload
and favorable matchup, but we have seen him disappoint in these
spots multiple times this year. Although Williams will probably
find his way into more of my DFS lineups than he should due to
expected volume, this is not a ceiling game for him. Jones also
has a great combination of likely workload and favorable matchup
working for him, but I have my doubts Green Bay can go toe-to-toe
offensively with the Cowboys in Dallas all game long. I will also
downgrade Jones' matchup a bit if Cowboys DT Johnathan Hankins
(ankle) is cleared to play his usual allotment of snaps for the
first time in over a month. He is as good of a run defender as
Dallas has. The health of Miami's running game is a huge question
mark. Raheem Mostert (knee, ankle) appears to be on track to play,
but will he return from a two-week absence to handle 15-20 carries?
Has Achane (toe, ribs) done enough in his absence to forge more
of a split backfield? How much will the frigid temperature affect
their speed?
Even if Lamb's projected ownership is in the 80-90 percent range,
he needs to be a lineup staple. He has earned at least 10 targets
in six straight and is coming off consecutive 13-catch efforts.
Lamb spent more than half of his time in the slot during the regular
season. If that is indicative of what will happen against Green
Bay, he should avoid Jaire Alexander for most of the game. Expect
Lamb to line up across from Corey Ballentine and Keisean Nixon as
a result. If that happens, the sky could be the limit. The Rams
have overachieved on many levels this season, but pass defense is
one of those areas that has not been the case. Prior to their meaningless
Week 18 tilt against the 49ers, Los Angeles had allowed two wideouts
to score at least 18 fantasy points in four straight. In other words,
either Amon-Ra St. Brown is in for a huge game or I need to bump
up Jameson Williams and/or Josh Reynolds and/or Kalif Raymond.
The Lions have been hemorrhaging fantasy points to receivers
of late, although facing Justin Jefferson twice and Lamb once
over the last three weeks has not helped. Still, the only semi-good
news is that Brian Branch has played well in the slot for a rookie.
The problem is Cameron Sutton and Kindle Vildor cannot be expected
to deal with Nacua or Robinson's physicality and size or Kupp's
quickness for very long. Do not be surprised if the Rams' trio
of wideouts combine for 60-plus fantasy points. Reed's DK salary
does not appear to have caught up with his play quite yet. His
primary defender figures to be slot CB Jourdan Lewis, which is
probably the easiest matchup any Green Bay receiver will have
this weekend. While I will probably find some room to plug Cooper
into my lineups hoping that lightning will strike twice (11-265-2
in Week 16), I feel David Njoku will play a much bigger role this
time around.
Since Robinson ($3,600) and Reed ($5,700) are so reasonably priced
this week, it is unlikely I will drop much lower than the top
11 names on this list (Cooper is 11th) very often to fill my receiver
spots.
While I expect Kelce to have his best game in over a month against
the Dolphins, I am not expecting to see a vintage performance from
him. I do not expect LaPorta to play, but I also could not leave
him completely off the board in good conscience either. Only two
other mid-priced tight ends have the projected volume and favorable
matchup combination I want to see: Njoku and Goedert. The Texans
did not exactly face a murderers' row of tight ends this season
and still surrendered a league-high-tying 107 catches to the position.
If Houston devotes more resources to keep Amari Cooper under control
this time around as I expect it will, Njoku could have a banner
day.
Goedert undoubtedly benefits from having two stud receivers on
his team, but their presence also robs him of the opportunity
to show he can be a dominant player more often. With A.J. Brown
and DeVonta Smith ailing, he might get that opportunity versus
a Bucs' defense that was somehow worse at slowing down tight ends
than Houston was during the regular season. Before running into
Carolina's inept offense in the season finale, Tampa Bay had yielded
at least 14.7 fantasy points to a tight end in four straight.
The biggest obstacle facing the Eagles' offense this week might
be getting out of their own way. Philadelphia now has enough injury
questions on offense to create doubt that it can outslug what
has been a disappointing Bucs' offense recently.
My favorite play of the week will be Wright, who might find his
way into more than half of my lineups. With LaPorta likely out,
the Rams showing a weakness at keeping tight ends in check and
the importance Detroit's offense places on the position, either
Wright or James Mitchell could be in line for a huge day. For
anyone who doubts the possibility of this happening, look back
to late last season when Wright, Mitchell and Shane Zylstra combined
for six touchdowns during the fantasy playoffs.
Key for defense/special teams units: PA - Points allowed TD - Defensive/return touchdowns TO - Total turnovers PA Bonus - Points allowed bonus for DraftKings
Defense / Special
Teams
Team
DK $
PA
Sacks
TD
TO
PA Bonus
DK
Bills
$3,500
14
3
2
1
1
14.0
Browns
$3,300
17
3
2
0
1
8.0
Chiefs
$2,900
16
2
2
0
1
7.0
Cowboys
$3,600
24
3
1
0
0
5.0
Eagles
$3,400
14
2
1
0
1
5.0
Buccaneers
$3,200
27
3
1
0
0
5.0
Texans
$3,000
27
2
1
0
0
4.0
Dolphins
$2,800
24
2
1
0
0
4.0
Rams
$2,700
20
1
1
0
1
4.0
Steelers
$2,600
17
1
0
0
1
2.0
Lions
$3,100
34
2
0
0
-1
1.0
Packers
$2,300
30
2
0
0
-1
1.0
FFPC Playoff Challenge
Due to popular demand, I am adding another section to this edition
of the Road to the Super Bowl. The FFPC offers a yearly playoff
challenge in which managers must put together a 12-man
fantasy squad, selecting no more than one player from each NFL
team. Similar to the NFL.com Playoff Challenge in years
past, players accumulate points throughout their time in the playoffs
- be it for one game or four. Unlike the NFL Playoff Challenge,
there is no ability to change players once rosters are set and
locked for the first round of the postseason. Additionally, the
only time the multiplier kicks in is for the Super Bowl (2x).
Because I have expressed my thoughts on many players in the previous
sections, I will just share the lineup I would use in this competition.
Kicker and defense/special teams are essentially throwaway positions
from the perspective that it makes no sense to use those spots
on players/units from the top Super Bowl contenders because they
are the lowest-scoring positions.
QB: Lamar Jackson
RB: Christian McCaffrey
RB: James Cook
WR: CeeDee Lamb
WR: Puka Nacua
TE: David Njoku
FLEX1: Amon-Ra St. Brown
FLEX2: Mike Evans
FLEX3: Tyreek Hill
FLEX4: Isiah Pacheco
K: Ka'imi Fairbairn
DST: Eagles
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
