Hubbard has clearly overtaken offseason signing Miles Sanders
as the lead back, logging 16 carries for 58 yards against the
Colts last Sunday. In all, Hubbard had 20 touches compared to
nine for Sanders. Maybe that evens out a little bit more Thursday
night because of the short turnaround, but still look for Hubbard
to get a higher percentage of the work. Chicago boasts a surprisingly
strong run defense, though, ranking fourth in yards per game (79.7)
and first in yards per carry (3.3). That leaves Hubbard as an
RB3.
While it’s still far too early to make sweeping judgments
about Young’s future, his present is a mess. In Week 9,
he threw for 173 yards, 1 TD, and 3 INTs -- it marked the third
time this year he passed for less than 200 yards. As such, the
rookie isn’t a viable option even against the NFL’s
fifth-worst pass defense (256.9 yards/game), and the only one
that has allowed 20 TD passes on the year.
CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
It appears as though Khalil Herbert (ankle) has a good shot to
be activated from IR before kickoff on Thursday night. Even if
that happens, look for Foreman to fill the lead role while Herbert
gets his legs under him. In Herbert’s four-game absence, Foreman
has racked up 306 yards and 3 TDs while serving as the primary
back. He might have some added motivation as well, having rushed
for 914 yards with Carolina a season ago only to be replaced in
free agency by Sanders. Against the Panthers’ 28th-ranked run
defense, Foreman has RB2 upside.
In the three-plus games that Tyson Bagent has led the offense,
Moore has collected 51, 54, 55, and 44 yards, respectively. That
adds up to 204 yards. In his last full game with Fields, Moore
logged 230 yards and three TDs on eight receptions. Had Justin
Fields (thumb) been ready to return, Moore’s ceiling would’ve
increased dramatically. With Bagent making a fourth consecutive
start, however, it’s hard to view Chicago’s No. 1
receiver as more than a low-end WR3.
The training wheels appear to finally be off running back Jonathan
Taylor as the former NFL rushing leader finally saw the field
for 75 percent of the Colts’ offensive snaps in Week 9, including
a 62 percent rushing share and a whopping 23 percent target share
in the passing game. Indianapolis QB Gardner Minshew loves checking
down to his running backs and as long as Taylor is on the field
he should continue to see significant usage as a pass-catcher
to go along with a potentially elite rushing share. We know that
Taylor has elite pure rushing skills, so a game like this one
against a bad New England team should mean close to 20, if not
pushing 30 touches for the superstar running back. Now’s the time
to get him in your fantasy lineup.
Rookie wide receiver Josh Downs didn’t practice Thursday with
a knee injury and the Colts’ WR3 Alec Pierce has also been limited
in practice with an ankle injury of his own, meaning that the
Colts’ target share could be even more consolidated than usual
this week. Pittman hasn’t been a big-time difference-maker for
fantasy this season, but he’s been exceptionally reliable, having
delivered double-digit fantasy days in all but one contest thus
far. He’s also seen five different games of 11 or more targets,
so with the Colts potentially being down multiple pass-catchers,
this looks like an excellent opportunity for him to gobble up
a gigantic target share against a Patriots defense that has conceded
the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers
so far this season.
Most of us assumed that it was coming eventually, but Moss’
snap share has really fallen off a cliff in recent weeks. The
veteran went from a 51 percent snap share in Week 7 to 39 percent
in Week 8 and then played on just 19 percent of snaps in Week
10. His rushing share was also at a season-low this past week
as he took just 24 percent of the Colts’ carries. Starting
Moss in fantasy lineups would likely mean relying on a blowout
Colts win, which is possible, but it’s more likely to be
a low-scoring contest overall with Moss seeing around 30 percent
of the Colts’ backfield touches. He’s nearly guaranteed
to get some work, but it won’t likely be difference-making
production.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
The Colts have given up the fourth-most fantasy points per game
to running backs, which should give fantasy managers some hope
that Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson can finally put
together his first string of RB1 fantasy games. Stevenson is coming
off his best game of the season, having rushed for a season-high
87 yards and a touchdown while adding 42 yards as a receiver against
the Commanders, and he should be a major focal point of the offense
again this week. Fantasy managers just need to hope that the Patriots’
offense as a whole can pick up some steam and get him into scoring
position more often because we can’t be relying on him breaking
off 64-yard runs every week. Still, he’s nearly a lock to
see at least a dozen touches and could push for 20 touches if
the game stays close and the New England offense as a whole is
moving the ball with at least some efficiency.
Rookie wide receiver Demario Douglas tied a season-high with
seven targets this past week and he now has 14 targets over his
past two games. His 55-yard receiving day in Week 9 was also a
season-high as he exploited a bad Commanders defense. Unfortunately,
he’s now dealing with an ankle injury that has limited him
in practice.
Assuming he can get on the field, Douglas will probably be the
de facto top option in the New England passing game again. That
doesn’t necessarily mean much as the Patriots haven’t
really been moving the ball well through the air, but this matchup
against the Colts isn’t a terrible one. Indianapolis has
a middle-of-the-pack against opposing wide receivers and they
have conceded some huge games to opposing top pass catchers, including
20-plus-point days to six different receivers through nine weeks.
Douglas is a low-end Flex option but could deliver some decent
production for fantasy managers who are struggling to find bye-week
replacements.
Indianapolis is an average defense at defending opposing quarterbacks
so we shouldn’t really be scared about this matchup. The
problem is really that Mac Jones just hasn’t been able to
deliver for fantasy managers even in good matchups. He had an
excellent opportunity to put up big points this past week against
a depleted Washington defense and was only able to throw for 220
yards and one touchdown. Sure, he’s fine if you need a QB2
replacement in Superflex leagues, but Jones’ upside just
isn’t strong enough to consider him as a QB1 even in deeper
leagues.
While the Packers leaned on Jones in Week 9, Dillon quietly put
together another nice effort, turning 10 touches into 43 yards.
Following a slow start, the bulldozing back has been far more
effective over the last month, totaling 76, 95, and 52 yards,
respectively, in the three previous games. He’s simply running
with more conviction and confidence, and against a Steelers team
that enters Week 10 ranked 29th in the NFL against the run (133.1
yards/game), this is a week that Dillon could deliver flex or
even RB3 value.
It feels like a million years ago that Watson was a hot commodity
after he closed his rookie season with eight touchdowns and three
100-plus-yard efforts over his final eight games. To this point
in Year 2, Watson and Jordan Love have not found the same chemistry
that the wideout enjoyed with Aaron Rodgers, topping 40 yards
in a game just once and not scoring since his season debut back
on Sept. 28. He’s had some chances on contested balls, but prior
to last Sunday he’d be unable to secure them. Maybe that will
jumpstart Watson. Maybe not. At this point, it’s best to wait
for him to deliver once or twice before using a starting slot
on him.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
What in the world is going on with Pickens? Just when it looked
like he was emerging as a go-to guy with consecutive 100-plus-yard
games, the second-year wideout has just three grabs for 21 yards
combined over the past two weeks. His behavior off the field has
been an issue as well, generating some “Antonio Brown 2.0” buzz,
and not in a positive way. Sometimes when a receiver squawks,
the team makes getting him the ball a priority, so it’s possible
Pickens could rebound with solid value here. Johnson has the underneath/intermediate
skill set that seems more conducive to success against the Packers,
though, making Pickens more of a lottery ticket from the WR3/flex
range.
It’s been a tough season for Harris, who has only topped 100 yards
in a game once, though he has scored in two of the last three
games after not finding the end zone in the first five. While
Green Bay’s 23rd-ranked run defense seems like a potential plus
matchup for Harris, keep in mind two things: 1) we’ve been seeing
more and more of Jaylen Warren recently, and he’s more the type
of back that gives the Packers trouble, and 2) Green Bay has only
allowed 130 rushing yards combined over the past two games. Valuing
Harris as more than an RB3/flex would be a mistake.
There are few players more difficult to get a read on in terms
of fantasy value than Hill, whose usage has spiked in recent weeks.
His performance last Sunday -- 52 yards rushing, 13 yards receiving,
3 yards passing, and 2 total TDs -- exemplified his upside, not
to mention the ongoing absurdity of the Jack-of-all-Trades being
deployable as a tight end. That positional eligibility really
elevates Hill’s fantasy profile, especially now with several top
TEs out injured (Dallas Goedert, Darren Waller, Zach Ertz, etc.).
If someone hasn’t already plucked Hill off waivers, he’s worth
nabbing. He can be plugged into your lineup this Sunday, too.
Carr topped the 300-yard mark in three straight games before
last Sunday when he put up just 211 yards and a pair of touchdowns
against the Bears. When you remember that Hill threw a three-yard
TD pass, it underscores how close the margins are between a mediocre
day fantasy wise and a big one. The veteran’s lack of touchdown
passes has been a major issue thus far (he has 10 in nine games),
and Minnesota has allowed a dozen, which ranks in the middle of
the pack. You figure Carr will post decent yardage totals, but
it’ll be his ability to punch it in that’ll determine
whether he can deliver QB1 value in Week 10.
Fade: N/A
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22
Thus far, Addison has been another first-round success story for
the Vikings, following in the footsteps of Justin Jefferson with
seven touchdowns in his first nine games. Coming into play last
Sunday, he’d scored in four consecutive outings. That streak ended,
though, and he finished the day with five catches for 52 yards.
While he still projects as a solid WR3 versus NOLA, the reality
is we don’t know how Joshua Dobbs will distribute the ball in
his first start, or how the Saints, which rank seventh in pass
defense, will prioritize coverage -- remember that K.J. Osborn
(concussion) could miss the game while in the NFL’s concussion
protocol, which could shift even more attention to the rookie.
By now you’ve doubtless heard Dobbs’ story, acquired midweek
and without the benefit of any practice reps, he stepped in for
an injured Jaren Hall (concussion) and led the team to a last-second
victory over the Falcons. It’s impressive to be sure. It’s also
more or less the same story we got from Baker Mayfield a season
ago, and that was quickly followed by weeks of uninspired play.
That’s not to say Dobbs will follow suit. He did some nice things
with Arizona, both as a runner and a passer, and the Vikings have
more talent to surround him with. He’s bounced around the NFL
for a reason, though, and New Orleans is a tough defense that
leads the league in takeaways. Unless you’re desperate, Dobbs
looks like he’d be better off on your bench.
While it feels a tad aggressive to label Stroud as a no-brainer,
coming off last week’s historic performance, how could you
bench him? One of the primary beneficiaries of Stroud’s
big day was Dell, who caught six passes for 114 yards and a pair
of TDs. While Collins continues to lead the way this season, Dell
has stepped up his game and now sits second on the team in yards
(454) and is tied for the lead in TDs (4). Don’t be afraid
to ride a hot hand with Dell in your lineup as a WR3.
Coming into the season, it made sense that Houston would favor
the run given their connection to San Francisco and young quarterback.
The reality, however, is that the Texans have become a pass-first
bunch with the combo of Singletary and Dameon Pierce (ankle) combining
for 536 yards on 171 carries (3.1 YPC) and one TD. Cincy’s run
defense is a weakness, however, ranking 27th in the NFL at 129.8
yards per game and a healthy 5.0 yards per carry. With Pierce
banged up, Singletary holds enough potential to be deployed as
a flex this Sunday.
Brown had a monster game versus the Bucs, posting a 6-153-1 line.
Doubtless that’ll land him on plenty of waiver wire lists, but
should it? Not necessarily. Brown is essentially filling the role
of Robert Woods (foot), making his long-term outlook murky at
best. We saw this from Brown a year ago when he started hot with
Dallas before fading. As a short-term target, maybe Brown can
deliver some value, but don’t trust him as more than a flex in
Week 10 -- and he’s only that if Woods remains sidelined.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1
With Higgins ascending back to no-brainer status, the only real
weekly wild card when it comes to Cincinnati’s offense is Boyd.
He’s had some decent showings of late, scoring in back-to-back
games and then posting a season-high 56 yards in Week 9. That’s
flex production to be sure, but Boyd could be pressed into a larger
role this Sunday if Chase is limited (or worse) due to his back
injury. Monitor the situation, and if Boyd is set to operate as
the No.2 receiver, he could fit a low-end WR3 slot.
Njoku has 22 receptions over his last five games, which includes
a 6-46-0 effort versus the Ravens in Week 4, and he’s scored in
two straight outings. Those aren’t huge numbers, and much of it
came with Deshaun Watson on the shelf nursing a shoulder injury,
but the 27-year-old has high-end talent at a shallow position.
If you’re looking for someone with top-10 potential for Sunday,
Njoku could deliver.
Back as the bell cow in Week 9 after filling a complementary
role the previous game due to an ankle injury, Ford racked up
25 touches against Arizona. He didn’t do a lot with them,
managing just 77 yards without a score, but he’s the engine
that drives that offense, and he should get plenty of work against
the Ravens. Baltimore sits eighth in the NFL against the run (91.9
yards/game), so expectations should be tempered, but anyone with
Ford’s level of usage holds at least RB3 value.
For the first time since Week 3, Watson played an entire game,
throwing for 219 yards and two TDs in a one-sided win over Arizona.
It was a solid effort, but not one that should make you want to
slide Watson into your lineup, especially given what the Ravens
did in their last two home games against Jared Goff and Geno Smith.
Keep Watson on your bench in Week 10.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Edwards was the model of efficiency in Week 9, carrying the ball
just five times but finishing with 52 yards and a pair of touchdowns.
While he wasn’t listed on the final injury report, Edwards did
deal with a toe injury leading into last Sunday, and with the
game getting out of hand he got to rest up. So, don’t read into
the fact that Justice Hill and Keaton Mitchell combined for 23
carries against Seattle. Edwards is still the guy, and he's a
low-end RB2 even versus Cleveland’s sixth-ranked run D.
Baltimore’s top receiver over the first seven weeks, Flowers has
a combined six catches for 30 yards the past two games. That includes
just one target in Week 9 while Odell Beckham (7) and Rashod Bateman
(5) were thrown to a dozen times. With such little work, Flowers’
outlook is sure to be depressed entering Week 10. Don’t be too
quick to write the rookie off, though, as he still looks like
the most talented option not named Andrews. He’s worth using as
a WR3 with risk/reward potential.
For the most part this season, DeAndre Hopkins has been the victim
of Tennessee’s limited passing game. But he’s topped 128 receiving
yards twice over the previous four games, including the highly
efficient 4-catch/3-TD performance in rookie Will Levis’ first
start. Tampa Bay’s pass defense has been dreadful this season,
as they’ve allowed at least 312 passing yards in three of the
last four games. Hopkins is Tennessee’s lone receiving threat
who should be fed early and often this week.
Levis struggled a bit last week against Pittsburgh, but the eyeball
test tells you that he belongs in this league. It also tells you
that he could be a “thing” in fantasy this time next year, so
long as Tennessee fortifies its receiving options. I like what
I’ve seen so far in the young fella. He’s a nice stash, and may
even be playable in a game or two down the stretch. But his inconsistency
and lack of weapons will ultimately be his undoing in 2023.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Chris Godwin leads the team in targets and receptions, but his
lack of TDs keeps him in the low-end WR2 conversation. Despite
his two-catch ugliness of a game last week, Godwin is a solid
as they come and is a welcomed addition to any team’s starting
lineup. The Titans are surprisingly one of the stingiest defenses
when it comes to keeping the opposition from scoring through the
air, so Godwin’s limited TDs could continue this week. Still,
he puts up productive numbers in spite of his lack of scoring.
They don’t come much better as a low-end WR2 in fantasy
than Godwin.
Baker Mayfield has been on a nice run recently. Five TD tosses
against one interception over the past three games ain’t
bad, but Tennessee may pose a credible resistance. While Tennessee’s
two interceptions are the league’s lowest, they’ve
only given up eight TD passes—good for third in the NFL.
And they have yet to give up a 300-yard passing day. Mayfield
is still considered a startable option in Week 10, so put him
in your lineup.
Cade Otton was the trendy waiver wire selection heading into
this week after his 6/70/2 stat line against Houston. It’s
probably not advisable to base a player’s worth on his ceiling,
but that’s what many fantasy players did. If nothing else,
Otton’s performance last week showed the fantasy world what
he’s capable of. At best, he’s a match-up play. At
worst, he’s roster depth.
Sure, it’s true that Brandon Aiyuk hasn’t scored since Week 1
when he went off for 8/129/2 against Pittsburgh. But he’s been
a player with a solid floor ever since who can complement other
explosive players on your roster. He’s coming off a109-yard performance
as the teams No.1 option while Deebo Samuel was out. No team defends
more pass plays than Jacksonville, meaning there should be plenty
of targets coming Aiyuk’s way this week. The 334 pass plays against
the Jags’ defense is last in the league. Volume is king, of course,
in fantasy, and Aiyuk should get his fair share. Start him with
confidence.
George Kittle is 4th in the league at tight end with 443 receiving
yards and 5th in TDs with three. Tight end, as we know, can be
the secret sauce when separating yourself from your competitor,
and Kittle is one of those that gives his managers a decided advantage
at the position. He has 14 receptions for 227 yards in his last
two games, so he has great momentum going into this game. Jacksonville
is in the bottom half of the league in defending the position,
so expect a solid game from Kittle.
My personal rule is I don’t start a player who is returning
for the first time from missing multiple games. However, that’s
a hard-and-fast rule only for lower-body injuries. Samuel returns
after missing the previous two games with a shoulder issue. I’d
still be a bit cautious of starting Samuel. In the previous three
games combined before his extended absence, Samuel had 3 catches
for 55 yards and zero scores. While he supplements his scoring
with rushing stats, it’s not enough to offset his recent
shortcomings in the passing game. At his best, Samuel is a top-10
receiver in the league. But he’s not always at his best,
so fantasy managers must keep that in mind as they make lineup
decisions.
Brock Purdy is in the middle of the worst stretch of his young
career. After the season’s first five games, Purdy had 9 TDs and
no interceptions. The past three games, 3 scores and 5 INTs. Purdy’s
fantasy managers hope his Jekyll/Hyde season gets turned around
this week against the 8th-ranked defense that is tied for the
league lead in interceptions with 11 (tied with the Niners, incidentally
enough). With Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, and Jalen Hurts
all on bye this week, Purdy may be some managers’ only choice.
If so, hope hard that he provides solid numbers.
Fade: N/A
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Christina Kirk has turned into one of my favorites this year.
While he hasn’t cracked the century mark since Week 2, he
continues to provide high-floor production for his managers. San
Francisco has surprisingly been generous to receivers, as they
rank 11th defending that position. That middle-of-the-road ranking
for the Niners means Kirk should be productive. Expect solid low-end
WR2 numbers this week.
Those outside the fantasy community sometimes ask what we mean
when we say a player is better in “real life” than in fantasy.
If anyone asks you that question, refer them to Trevor Lawrence.
Each week, he’s ranked as a QB1, but his 9 passing TDs through
eight games are 21st in the league and are fewer than players
named Joshua Dobbs, Mac Jones, Justin Fields, and Jordon Love.
Ouch. How is a player with not much fantasy production continuously
ranked as a QB1? I don’t get it. With byes and injuries, some
may not have much of a choice but to start Lawrence. Take your
anxiety meds if you fall into that category.
Calvin Ridley has been all over the place with his production
this season. He’s gone from 101 receiving yards in Week
1, to 32 yards in Week 2; from 122 receiving yards in Week 5,
to 30 in Week 6. That must be maddening for his managers, especially
knowing they spent a 2nd or 3rd round pick on Ridley. He’s
got to become more consistent if he’s to be trusted in line-ups.
Jared Goff finds himself as a borderline top 12 fantasy quarterback
varying slightly based on scoring format. This week he draws a
Chargers team that feeds production to opposing QBs (2508 passing
yards allowed), and that makes Goff an easy start.
The Lions running back situation, to-date, has gone something
like this: When David Montgomery is healthy, he’s an RB1.
When he’s out, Jahmyr Gibbs is an RB1. The question now
is whether that story has changed, with Gibbs getting a couple
of weeks to show off out of Monty’s shadow.
It’s unlikely that the Lions turn away from Montgomery’s
trustworthiness as a ball handler, nor his vision and power. But
Gibbs has surely developed some trust of his own, and the Lions
may want to reduce Montgomery’s load a bit in an effort
to keep him healthy. As such, it’s likely that Montgomery
sees the greater share of the rushing, but Gibbs sees bigger totals
than he did behind Monty earlier this year. The Chargers have
also given up the second most receptions to running backs (58).
Gibbs should benefit from this, and both backs are no worse than
RB2’s this week, with major RB1 upside.
Jameson Williams first two seasons have been greatly hampered
by a college injury and a betting scandal, and when he’s
finally hit the field, he’s shown flashes that reveal his
talent, along with rawness that shows how damaging the time missed
has been. Williams is playing about 40% of snaps (40%+ in 3 of
4 games this year). He also has a drop rate over 20%, and that
just can’t keep up. It remains to be seen as to whether
or not he becomes a regular threat, but if you’re in a deep
dynasty league and looking for help off the bench, Williams is
bound to break off a big game, and the Chargers are as good as
any team to allow it (4th most points to opposing wideouts).
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
The Lions have given up the 3rd fewest points per game to running
backs this season. But Ekeler, 8th among RBs in points per game
coming into the week, stands to see a lot of looks from Justin
Herbert now that the offense is down not just Mike Williams, but
also Joshua Palmer. Ekeler is unlikely to get to RB1 territory
on the ground versus a Lions team that has surrendered just 461
rushing yards to RBs, but – as he often does – Ekeler has a good
chance to get there through the air. Consider him a high end RB2,
with RB1 upside.
Gerald Everett, meanwhile, has mostly been an afterthought in
the Chargers offense this season (just 22nd among TE in FPts/G),
but with injuries plaguing the offense in 2022, Everett flirted
with Top 12 status among TE’s and finished at No.15 in points
per game. He now finds himself in similar circumstances, is playing
a similar amount of snaps (60% this year versus 59% last year),
and draws a Lions team that has given up the 7th most points to
the position. The sum total makes him a low end TE1 this week.
Herbert is now looking at a somewhat similar situation to what
he experienced for much of 2022, playing with an injury (fractured
finger in non-throwing hand) as his wide receivers can’t stay
healthy. The Chargers thought they had a backup plan in place
with Quentin Johnston, but Johnston has yet to show he’s ready
to take on a significant role. Even with Palmer going out, Johnston
had just 2 catches for 14 yards on 3 targets in Week 9.
Herbert’s production has been tarred by the Chargers’
health issues, and he’s just 22nd among quarterbacks in
points per game over the last three weeks. The Lions are a middling
team against QBs, and the one saving grace for Herbert is that
his team is the underdog, which gives him a chance to reach QB1
numbers by volume. Still, he’s arguably no more than a high
end QB2 this week.
It seems that Falcons coach Arthur Smith is letting opposing
coaches dictate how he calls plays. It’s not usual for a
coach to adjust their game plan based on their opponents, but
Smith has drifted from what made the Falcons most successful in
2022 – imposing the run game, even if occasionally to a
fault. It’s hard to imagine this continuing much longer,
as the Falcons have lost their grip on even a share of first place
in the NFL’s weakest division.
Versus a Cardinals team that has given up the 3rd most points
to opposing running backs and a whopping 13 rushing touchdowns,
expect good things from both Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier.
It would not be at all surprising if both see the end zone.
Robinson can be thought of as no worse than a borderline RB1
in a juicy matchup, while Algeier stands to make a good flex option.
Since a devastating 0 reception, 1 target game during Week 1,
London has been targeted at least 6 times a game and at least
7 over the last five games. The severe limitations of the Falcons
QB’s this year have left London capped at 25th in points
per game among WR’s over the last five weeks, but Heinicke
taking over provides at least a small upgrade.
Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel and rookie Jahan Dotson were all
able to have relatively meaningful fantasy impacts last year with
Heinicke, and London could be a top 25 WR the rest of the way
even in what should be a more run-focused offense going forward.
The Cardinals are beatable versus receivers (12th most points
allowed) and Kyler Murray’s return could make this game a bit
more of a back-and-forth tussle than it might have been with Clayton
Tune. London is justifiably used as a WR2 this week.
It’s been fascinating to witness Jonnu Smith return to
fantasy relevance, even behind Kyle Pitts. As such, one could
say that Smith is as big a surprise in fantasy football this season
as any.
Pitts, meanwhile, has yet to become what he was expected to be
coming out of college, and that’s only partly due to the
way the Falcons offense is built and the QB limitations. As of
right now, Smith has been more relevant in fantasy football this
year, but it’s hard to look at either TE as a strong option
this week. The Cardinals have recently held George Kittle to 9
yards and Mark Andrews to 40. Only one tight end has produced
more than 50 receiving yards versus them this season (Darren Waller,
Week 2).
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
When Kyler Murray was healthy in 2022 and Marquise Brown was
the team’s WR1, Brown landed several big performances including
a 14-reception, 140-yard outing. Brown has yet to have a 100-yard
performance this year, but with Murray back, that could change
as early as this week.
It’s no secret that fantasy football scoring favors the
mobile QB, and Kyler Murray has been a consistent finisher as
a QB1 when healthy. Coming off an ACL tear, there are some fair
questions to be asked about how quickly Murray can get up to speed,
both mentally and physically. As such, it’s a bit of a risk
to start him this week, but if you are needy at QB, Murray does
draw a Falcons team that has given up the 8th most points to opposing
quarterbacks and he certainly has the potential upside to provide
you a big day.
It’s not clear yet whether James Conner will return this
week, but he’s back at practice and he has a real shot at
playing. Supposing he does, it still looks best to sit him one
more week, as the Falcons have been brutal to opposing running
backs. One of Conner’s best traits is the ability to punch
in a score (46 career rushing TDs), but the Falcons have not surrendered
a single rushing touchdown this season.
After Robinson averaged a mere 10.5 touches between weeks 5 and
8, there was a lot of concern that he might be losing a grip on
his role in the Washington offense. For those hung with him, it
paid respectable dividends last week as he handled 19 touches
(18 on the ground), picked up 67 yards and punched in a score.
Having only had more than two receptions on one occasion this
season, Robinson needs action early be productive, but the Seahawks
have been vulnerable against the run – particularly in the
red zone (9 rushing TD allowed) – so Robinson (5 rushing
TDs) has a good chance to punch one in and have another day worthy
of RB2 status.
The Seahawks have surrendered the 9th most points to wide receivers
this year, but since getting healthy in the secondary, they’ve
improved their numbers. In the last five weeks, they’ve
surrendered the 5th fewest points to opposing wideouts, meaning
things will likely not come easy for either Terry McLaurin nor
Jahan Dotson. Dotson has finally come to life over the last couple
of weeks, amassing 177 yards and 2 scores, with at least 8 targets
in each of the last three games.
The biggest key will indeed be volume, with the Commanders probably
falling behind and doing a lot of throwing late. While the Seahawks
have been blanketing receivers over the last month and change,
4 of 5 receivers who saw at least 7 targets have had a Top 25
day. Consider McLaurin as a WR3 and Dotson to be somewhere on
the fringe between a WR3 and 4 for this one.
Howell’s 2023 season-to-date may be the greatest example
of how fantasy football sometimes diverges from reality (particularly
at QB in standard scoring). Howell currently finds himself ranked
just inside the Top 12 in most formats, while flirting with being
sacked 100 times this season. Howell has been sacked just four
times in the last two weeks (97 pass attempts), so while it’s
too soon to say, there may be some hope that he is making improvements
in timing. He’ll likely need it to survive the season.
Howell’s risk of being on his back all day and/or leaving
the game early against a ferocious Seahawks front (27 sacks already)
is far from the only concern here. Howell has played what has
arguably been the softest schedule a QB could ask for, having
already faced the Eagles vulnerable secondary twice, the Cardinals,
Falcons and of course the leaky Bears. He also faced the Broncos
earlier in the season when they were the kind of defense to give
up 70 points.
Seattle presents a much taller task than nearly all of Howell’s
previous opponents, especially since their secondary got healthy.
Howell’s only tough match up – against the Bills –
saw him throw 4 picks. It’s a good week not just to sit
Howell, but see if you can trade him. His schedule is not easy
moving forward.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
After a good off-season in Seattle, including landing WR Jaxon
Smith-Njigba through the draft, it seemed that Geno Smith was
set for a solid follow up to his surprise 2022 performance. Injury
issues to the offensive line, nagging injuries for DK Metcalf
and signs of aging in Tyler Lockett have done a lot to derail
that. Some regression was to be expected from Smith, but an avalanche
of issues on offense has found Smith ranked just 27th among QBs
in fantasy points per game. At this point, it’s getting
difficult to look him as more than an unexciting QB2 even on a
good day, but yet Washington presents a hard-to-ignore get right
moment.
Washington has surrendered the 3rd most points to opposing QBs,
and that was while having talented pass rushers Montez Sweat and
Chase Young for the weeks first two months. Without a pass rush
of significance, it’s really hard to believe there’s a better
team for an opposing QB to face. They’ve been incredibly vulnerable
to both passing and rushing from opposing quarterbacks, giving
up 2380 yards through the air and 240 on the ground. Strangely,
Geno Smith has just 53 rushing yards this season, but look at
this week as the optimum for Geno and Seattle to get their feet
back under themselves.
Not surprisingly, the Commanders have been equally torched by
opposing receivers as they have been by opposing QB’s. In
a game where Geno can get a rhythm going, it’s quite reasonable
to expect Metcalf and Lockett – both appearing healthy this
week – to have notable days, as well. Look for Top 25 performances
out of both of them.
Smith-Njigba’s targets and production have been ticking
up, hitting his season high of 7 targets in two of the last three
weeks, and also producing a season high of 63 yards receiving
in both games. Njibga has also picked up a score in two of the
last three weeks, so the rookie is starting to show growth. Also
encouraging was a season high 82% snap share last week –
easily his best. But Seattle was crushed by 34 points, and in
a game that they should be handily favored this week, Njigba may
see a snap share closer to 60-65%.
There are plenty of encouraging signs and the matchup is quite
favorable, so Smith-Njigba is worth considering for the upside
if you’re short at wideout this week. But as long as he’s
the third option in the offense, some volatility and risk remains.
Since coming back from his three-game injury stint, Saquon Barkley
has once again reestablished himself as one of the premiere every-down,
bell-cow running backs in the NFL. Barkley has carried the ball
an average of over 24 times per game during this most recent four-game
stretch, adding at least three receptions in each contest as well.
The matchup against the Cowboys is a tough one for any back and
they did hold him in check to 12 carries for 51 yards back in
Week 1, but Barkley is just seeing too strong of a workload to
consider benching him in normal leagues.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: All Giants WRs
We’ve seen some moments from Wan’Dale
Robinson, but this is an overall no-go for the Giants’ passing
game. The Cowboys have conceded just the third-fewest fantasy
points to opposing wide receivers so far this season, including
an absolutely dominant performance when they played New York back
in Week 1. Giants WRs combined for a pathetic 41 total receiving
yards in that contest and that was with Daniel Jones at quarterback.
Now they’re working with Tommy DeVito behind center. This might
be an absolute trainwreck of a game for the New York offense.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
The disappointing season for Cowboys running back Tony Pollard
continued this past week as he failed to reach double-digit fantasy
points for the fourth time in his past four games. The explosive
plays just have not been there for this once-budding superstar
here in 2023 and now fantasy managers have to be considering benching
him for more fringy options.
While things have been bad as of late, there’s actually
reason to believe that Pollard’s season could begin to turn
around as early as this week. He has a stretch of very beatable
matchups coming up, starting with this Week 10 contest against
the Giants. Pollard actually had his best fantasy game of the
season when he played the Giants back in Week 1, as he rushed
for 70 yards on just 14 carries, including two touchdowns while
adding a couple of catches for 12 yards in the passing game.
Things haven’t gotten much better for the Giants since that Week
1 drubbing either. They’ve given up the ninth-most fantasy points
per game to opposing running backs, including some big fantasy
performances to the likes of James Conner, Christian McCaffrey,
Breece Hall, Josh Jacobs, and both Devon Achane and Raheem Mostert.
Only two teams (Washington and Buffalo) failed to have a running
back achieve double-digit fantasy points against this defense.
Both quarterback Dak Prescott and tight end Jake Ferguson have
been hot as of late, so don’t feel bad about starting either
of them if they’re the best options you have. The only real
worry in this game is that the Cowboys could get out to a lead
in this game and may end up running clock for most of the afternoon
which would really limit the passing game’s upside. We’ve
seen the Cowboys smash opposing teams this season and it’s
rarely led to big games for the passing game, including back in
Week 1 when Prescott threw for just 143 yards and no touchdowns
despite the Cowboys beating this same Giants team by a 40-0 margin.
Fade: Cowboys Wide Receivers (other than CeeDee Lamb)
We’ve seen some decent fantasy weeks this season from Brandin
Cooks and Michael
Gallup, as well as even Jalen
Tolbert this past week, but the only wide receiver in the
Cowboys offense who is seeing consistent targets is CeeDee Lamb.
Team management seems to have identified this as a position of
need, as well, considering that they signed veteran wide receiver
Martavis Bryant to a deal during the week. Although Bryant doesn’t
figure to play a big role here in Week 10 if he’s even active
at all, his signing does indicate that the team doesn’t have much
confidence in the ancillary pass-catching weapons on the roster,
and neither should fantasy managers.
Garrett Wilson’s incredible talent is undeniable. Some weeks,
though, the Jets QB situation is just going to give Wilson invisible
cement feet. Wilson is being targeted at an incredible rate –
59 times in the last five games – but only has one 100-yard game
to show for it (exactly a 100 yards) and no touchdowns during
that span. Most weeks, despite a limited ceiling with inaccurate
Zach Wilson, Garrett is still a high floor wide receiver 2 thanks
to huge target volume, but that may be a taller order against
a Raiders defense that has given up the 7th fewest yards to receivers.
While the Raiders have once again struggled in 2023, defensively
these are not the Raiders of the last several years (if not two
decades). The Raiders of old might lead a fantasy owner to consider
starting almost any QB against them. There are some teeth finally
growing in this defense, which has given up the 9th fewest points
to opposing QBs. Unfortunately, even baby teeth are probably too
much for the Jets former 1st round pick to overcome the bite of.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Well, it’s come down to this. Even with Josh McDaniels
deposed and new life in the Raiders locker room, Davante Adams
not only didn’t enjoy the squeaky wheel treatment, but he
did very little with the target total he was given (4-34-0 on
7 targets). At this point, now five weeks removed from a 60+ yard
performance and without a touchdown since Week 3, there are fair
questions to ask about the impact of Adams age, not just situation.
One can’t give up on an arguably Hall of Fame talent, but
it’s anyone’s guess where the rest of Adam’s
season goes from here. If you invested heavily in Adams, you very
likely can’t afford to sit him now and wait for signs of
life. But against a Jets defense that has given up the fewest
points per game to opposing wide receivers (and just 1 touchdown!),
you may have to breathe deep and hold your nose before plugging
him into your starting lineup this week.
Wide receiver Jakobi Meyers has just 6 total targets in the last
two weeks, after seeing 7 or more targets in all but one of his
first six games. Couple that with the previously mentioned difficulty
of going against the Jets defense and Meyers appears to be a very
wise sit this week.
Meanwhile, last week Hunter Renfrow had a very promising first
quarter sans Josh McDaniels, quickly grabbing 2 receptions for
32 yards, but he rarely saw the field after that. While Renfrow
may see the field a bit more in a game the Raiders are likely
to be trailing (let alone jumping out to a big lead), even an
unexpectedly high snap rate probably wouldn’t produce a
worthwhile pay out in Week 10.
Broncos running back Javonte Williams has seen his snap share
grow from 35 percent to 66 percent over his past three games,
while his rushing attempt share went from 50 percent up to 82
percent over the same stretch. Williams saw a whopping 30 touches
the last time we saw him, during the Broncos’ shockingly
dominant victory over the Chiefs back in Week 8.
The Bills have given up productive fantasy days to Joe Mixon,
Rachaad White, Rhamondre Stevenson, Saquon Barkley, Travis Etienne,
and Devon Achane in consecutive weeks, so look for the Broncos
to implement a similar offensive game plan to what was successful
for them against the Chiefs. This should be another heavy-workload
game for Williams.
Broncos wide receiver Courtland Sutton hasn’t caught more
than six passes in a game since all the way back in Week 3, but
it’s tough to deny that he’s been one of the league’s
most effective per-catch receivers this season. Sutton has scored
a touchdown in five of his past six games overall, including each
of his past three, and he’s only been held out of the end
zone twice so far this season.
While he still hasn’t delivered a 20-point fantasy performance
despite all of this red zone success, Sutton has managed to be
a reliable WR2 and with the Bills only being a middle-of-the-pack
defense against opposing wide receivers, there aren’t many
reasons to sit Sutton here in Week 10.
While Jerry Jeudy finally got into the end zone for the first
time this season when we saw him last back in Week 8, he did so
on just two catches - a season-low number for the former first-round
NFL Draft pick. Jeudy has now failed to exceed six receptions
in any game and he’s averaging just over 12 yards per reception
on the season, meaning that he’s failed to be even a WR2
in any game this season.
Sure, a week off and a chance to get healthy might have done
this whole Broncos offense some good, but we need to see him produce
some bigger numbers before it’s time to trust Jeudy back
in fantasy starting lineups.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
The breakout for tight end Dalton Kincaid is officially underway
as the rookie has now exceeded 15 fantasy points in three straight
games as the Bills’ TE1. This past week’s performance
is probably the most exciting of the bunch, as well, as he finally
saw his first double-digit target day, catching 10 of a possible
11 passes that came his way for 81 yards. Kincaid is a superstar-level
talent who just needed the opportunity and now he has it.
To make things even better, he now faces a Denver defense that
has been terrible across the board, including against tight ends,
where they’ve conceded the fourth-most fantasy points to
the position on the year. While they’ve given up only three
touchdowns to the position on the year, they’ve still been
gashed by the position as a whole and there’s plenty of
reason to trust Kincaid as a mid-to-high-end TE1 this week and
going forward.
We knew that the Bills were a pass-heavy offense when we drafted
running back James Cook this offseason, so it should come as no
surprise that there will be games where he’s just not utilized
much. That can be extremely frustrating to deal with and it makes
sense that many fantasy managers are considering benching Cook
despite the fact that he has one of the best possible on-paper
matchups.
Cook faces a Denver defense that has been absolutely terrorized
by opposing running backs this season. We all know about the humiliating
performance they had against the Dolphins, but that hasn’t
been the only beating they’ve taken from running backs.
Five different running backs have scored 20 or more fantasy points
against this defense and while they looked good against the Chiefs
this past week, the overall trend has been very productive running
back fantasy days against this Broncos defense.
We do need to be at least somewhat concerned that the Bills brought
in Leonard Fournette off the streets, but Fournette is yet to
play a snap and it’s very unlikely that he’ll suddenly step in
and take a lead-back role here in Buffalo this week.
Davis continues to be one of the most frustrating fantasy players
to manage. Week 8 saw him catch a season-high nine passes for
87 yards and a touchdown as he earned an impressive 12 targets
against the Buccaneers. That, of course, came right after a one-catch,
six-yard game against the Patriots, so many fantasy managers didn’t
even have him in their lineups during his big performance. Then
after the big game against the Buccaneers, fantasy managers were
ready to get hurt again - and they did - as Davis went right back
to his old ways, catching zero passes on just two targets against
the Bengals. Not only was the production nonexistent, but Davis
somehow finished tied for fifth on the Bills in targets for the
week.
This type of roller coaster production is just wildly unpredictable
and it’s not something that we really want to be dealing
with in anything other than extremely deep leagues where we’re
starting four or more wide receivers that can potentially offset
Davis’ bad weeks.
We know that the Broncos are terrible and maybe the Bills get
everyone involved in a huge blowout win here, but Denver has actually
been quietly good against opposing wide receivers as of late.
In fact, they haven’t allowed a single wide receiver to
reach even 75 yards receiving against them since all the way back
in Week 4. Stay away from Davis in this one.
