As proof, I offer you the last 10 years of preseason statistical leaders. There are probably only one or two names you will recognize (Rhamondre Stevenson, Chosen (don’t call me Robby) Anderson and Jakobi Meyers. It was Stevenson’s first season, not last year and his modest fantasy totals amounted to 9.7 FPts/G (45th among RBs). Meanwhile, in 2016, Anderson produced 8.4 FPts/G (77th among WRs). Meyers was still in his “no score mode” and finished 113th among receivers. It was also a year before Allen Hurns exploded for a 1,000-yard season. So, while it’s fun to fantasize about finding a “diamond in the rough”, it’s extremely unlikely.

2) You think you have pressure to perform in your job? Think about Jordan Love. Over the past 31 years, the Green Bay Packers franchise has only known two starting quarterbacks – Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers threw for 59,055 yards and 475 touchdowns over 230 starts and Favre threw for 61,655 yards and 442 touchdowns in his time on the “frozen tundra.”

Also, in Favre first season he had Sterling Sharpe, Robert Brooks and tight end Jackie Harris. Rodgers had Greg Jennings, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson. By comparison, Love will be throwing to Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs and rookie Luke Musgrave. And you just “know” the Packers fans expect a smooth transition just as they saw in likely the only two other times in their life.

3) I certainly understand why so many people list Austin Ekeler as their No.1 fantasy running back, but I’m here to tell you Christian McCaffrey will be the better back in 2023.

Over the final six weeks of the regular season (after being traded mid-season) McCaffrey averaged 24.3 FPts/G. That’s above the 22.6 FPts/G Ekeler averaged last season. (By the way… that’s called cherry-picking the statistics).

But here is the truth, CMC is a better runner than Ekeler and equal as a receiver. Because Ekeler has never run for more than 915 yards in a season, he is more touchdown-dependent. His 38 touchdowns over the past two seasons is the reason he’s scored more than CMC. Any sort of “protecting” of Ekeler by increasing a second-back usage could be detrimental and new OC, Kellen Moore, used a two-headed attack in Dallas.

Additionally, a healthy Justin Herbert (he played with injured ribs at least half the season in 2022) and an even more talented receiving corps (a healthier Keenan Allen, No.1 pick Quentin Johnson) should result in more downfield passing and might get the Chargers receivers into the end zone at a higher rate.

In 2022, Herbert was 31st in “intended air yards” at just 6.4 per attempt. That will happen when you are protecting a rib injury. Those numbers are sure to increase in 2023. Said Keenan Allen recently, “Justin has a cannon ... we’re probably going to be going deep.”

4) Another reason not to hold your draft too early came to fruition this week when the Jets signed former Minnesota Viking running back Dalvin Cook. While Breece Hall is still mending his ACL, Cook gets the first shot at locking in playing time. As a back with four consecutive 1,100-yard rushing seasons, this could be bad for Hall’s (ADP 20.7) eventual workload and production in 2023. Michael Carter and Israel Abanikanda no longer have any value in redraft leagues.

Stop drafting before the last week in August.

5) You don’t necessarily need to be an accurate thrower to be a fantasy star… but if you aren’t, you better be great with your legs.

Check out the chart below. The top 15 fantasy quarterbacks, by fantasy points per game and minimum of six starts, are shown on the far left column. Note the three lowest of that group; Justin Fields, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson all use their feet. If you are not accurate, you had better run well.