We’re coming down to the final days before the season begins.
I’m sure most of your important leagues have held off drafting
until the final week to protect fantasy owners from preseason injuries
(ex: J.K. Dobbins, T.Y. Hilton, Travis Etienne and Cam Akers). Therefore,
I have some final information to fine tune your quarterback rankings
and help you win your fantasy league.
I’ve come up with a couple of key areas to target.
First, while it’s great to get the quarterback you want
on Draft Day, it’s also important to get a backup quarterback
who fits with your starter. If you are lucky, and your starter
stays healthy, the backup may only be called upon for one week
of work. (I’m rarely that lucky).
But if you are, listed below are the top-12 projected quarterbacks
from the FFToday projections and the ideal fit for their bye weeks
from the other 20 starting quarterbacks. (Note that since bye
weeks don’t start until Week 6, I have included all five
rookie quarterbacks as starters by that time.)
Three matchups jump out as favorable substitutes for these three
star quarterbacks. Tua Tagovailoa faces the Falcons, who yielded
a league-worst 28.3 FPts/G to opposing quarterbacks. Meanwhile,
Detroit travels to Hollywood to face their old quarterback and
the Lions’ defense allowed 27.6 FPts/G (ranked 31st). I
love Matthew Stafford here. The third option would be young Mac Jones facing the Jets in Foxboro.
Replacing Jackson isn’t easy, but again three choices appear
at least viable. Sam
Darnold starts for Carolina and faces those same Falcons,
Stafford faces Houston and Carson
Wentz goes up against Tennessee which ranked 29th last season
A couple of good options here. Winston, after racking up big
numbers versus Atlanta in Week 9, gets another powder puff pass
defense in Tennessee in Week 10. His confidence should be sky
high. Or Ben Roethlisberger and his plethora of talented receivers
faces the Lions at Heinz Field.
There are two good choices in the same game … of course
neither is as good as the two they are replacing, but Matt Ryan
versus the Jaguars’ pass defense and Trevor Lawrence versus
the Falcons’ suspect pass defense might get the job done.
Two options here. Kirk Cousins in a divisional game against Detroit
or Stafford and the Rams hosting Lawrence and the Jaguars. I’m
betting the Rams huge pass rush will give Stafford and the offense
good field position as they test the rookie’s mettle.
In the last bye week of the season I’m thinking San Darnold
against the Falcons or Teddy Bridgewater (or Drew Lock by Week
14) versus the Lions’ pass defense.
Obviously there is some overlapping of quarterbacks which could
force you to choose the one you want the most a round earlier
than everyone else.
Secondly, if you are planning on winning your fantasy league
and you play head-to-head with playoffs and not a pure, but rare,
rotisserie “total points” league, then you better
make sure your fantasy quarterback has the best schedule come
Week 15-17. Or at least a very good one.
Because it’s not enough to rack up huge gobs of points
in the regular season only to be done in by a horrible matchup
in the first or second round of the playoffs. And if you somehow
manage to thread your way into the championship game you don’t
want to face the No. 1 QB defense (last year that was the Los
Below I have built a chart showing the best and worst playoff
matchups based on last year’s “Fantasy Points Allowed
to opposing quarterbacks.” I do understand that things can
change year-to-year, players return from injury and Covid-19 opt-outs,
but history is what we have to go on. And as the cliché
goes, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned
to repeat it.”
Of the Top-12 fantasy quarterbacks, Allen and Herbert tie for
the most favorable playoff schedule, though Allen does have to
face No. 10 Patriots in Week 16. Roethlisberger actually has the
most favorable schedule along with the 49ers quarterback (I’m
assuming Trey Lance) in case you are searching for a fantasy backup
with more long-term value to protect yourself from a major playoff
The two Top-12 quarterbacks at the other end of the spectrum,
facing the most daunting of playoff challenges are: Lamar Jackson
and Jalen Hurts. Jackson, who will obviously be 100% rostered)
faces Green Bay, Cincinnati and the Rams … not a schedule
I’d want to be staring at. Meanwhile, Hurts will face Chase Young and the WFT twice and the New York Giants once.
Overall Cousins (who ranked just outside the Top-12 at No. 13
in our projections) would have the worst schedule of all facing
three top-seven defenses (Chicago, Los Angeles Rams and Green
So, if you are looking at quarterbacks with similar ADP rankings,
say Wilson at 68.8 and Herbert at 69.5, this should be the deciding
factor. Or if it’s between Jackson 51.1 and Aaron Rodgers
at 61.0, perhaps you should wait the extra round for Rodgers.
Good luck at your draft and don’t forget to come back to
this site for all the essential information you will need during
the season (like the “Rest-of-the-Way” Rankings) to
win your league. And of course, my weekly “Truths and Lies”