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Steve Schwarz | Archive | Email |  
Staff Writer


Running Backs Who Are Scoreboard Proof
7/18/19

Phillip Lindsay

What you want from your starting fantasy running backs is a guy who is “scoreboard proof.” A back who gets plenty of work even when the team is behind and fighting tooth and nail for the win. While still doing the “run-out-the-clock” work when they are ahead in the fourth quarter.

It’s not just talent which makes a great fantasy running back. It’s a team using that talent to its fullest advantage. For many running backs, that means when their team is ahead on the scoreboard, getting volume rushing attempts, and pounding out the yards while playing keep away from the opposition.
However, not all teams can dominate their 16-game schedule. Fewer still go undefeated for the season. So the most consistent fantasy running backs are those who get usage whether or not their team is ahead or behind.

Below is a chart of what each of the backs did last season when their team was behind. The backs at the top of the list should be “scoreboard proof.”

1) Saquon Barkley, New York Giants – No surprise here. He’s great running the ball, great catching the ball and the Giants spent most of last season playing catch-up. It’s likely to be more of the same in 2019 with holes on both the offense and defense, therefore we already have plenty of evidence to be relatively sure that Eli Manning (or Daniel Jones late in the season) will continue to feed his star running back no matter the score.

2) David Johnson, Arizona – Another back who spent most of the season looking up at the opposition. However, the team has been redesigned for 2019 with a running quarterback and an offensive head coach known for putting points on the board (at least at the college level) so there are question marks for the upcoming season. Having seen how Lamar Jackson helped the Ravens’ running back corps (3.51 ypc behind Joe Flacco and 5.41 under Jackson), I think Kyler Murray does the same for Johnson and the Cardinals backfield.

3) Todd Gurley, Los Angeles Rams – Considering that the Rams went a league-best 13-3 and outscored their opponents by 148 points, they couldn’t have been behind that much making Gurley’s No. 3 ranking all the more impressive. If we knew he was healthy, this would be an easy choice on draft day, but the arthritic knee has to worry every fantasy owner. By contrast, the combined totals of both James White (329) and Sony Michel (164) of the 11-5 New England Patriots produced less than half Gurley’s total (1078).

4) Christian McCaffrey, Carolina – McCaffrey is heavily involved in the Panthers’ passing game and was ranked fourth in productivity when behind. He finished the year second among backs in receptions and third in receiving yards to help overcome his low volume rushing attempts. He’s also the only quality back on the roster, so rushing attempt volume isn’t in question and happily quarterback Cam Newton doesn’t steal as many touchdown on the ground as he used to when he was younger.

5) Joe Mixon, Cincinnati – The Bengals started out 4-1 before falling apart, but don’t blame Mixon, who performed well gaining half his total rushing yards and 70-percent of his receiving yards when his team was behind, which was often. With prospects still bleak for Cincinnati in 2019, you should have faith in Mixon’s ability to keep producing. Also, talk of Giovani Bernard stealing a bigger portion of Mixon’s work (and before that Jeremy Hill’s) is a yearly training camp fallacy.

6) Phillip Lindsay, Denver – The Broncos never got their offense in gear last season primarily due to the passing game’s failures. Injuries to Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders disrupted any gains from Lindsay. The passing game will be all new with Joe Flacco, Courtland Sutton, DaeSean Hamilton and rookie tight end Noah Fant joining Sanders so the ground game, led by the second-year Lindsay, should be a constant factor on offense against a tough schedule.

7) Alvin Kamara, New Orleans – When you go 13-3 you probably didn’t play much from behind, but despite that Kamara produced the seventh-best total. A slight downgrade of his backfield running mate, from Mark Ingram to Latavius Murray, should allow Kamara to amass plenty of touches even in limited time from behind. As future Hall of Fame quarterback Drew Brees has aged he’s thrown less (673 in 2016, 536 in 2017 and 489 in 2018) and handed the ball off more. Brees is a wise old quarterback and Kamara owners the beneficiary of that wisdom.

8) Ezekiel Elliott, Dallas – Elliott is a volume rusher and the focal point of the Cowboys’ offense so ahead or behind makes little difference in his usage. Head coach Jason Garrett has proven time and again to be a conservative play caller on offense and with the solid defense the team will put on the field in 2019 is likely to continue that strategy. Give the ball to Zeke early and often and play great defense is good for the Cowboys future and Elliott’s fantasy owners.

 When Playing from Behind in 2018
Running Back Team Ru Atts Ru Yards TDs Tgts Rec Yards TDs Combined
Yds
TDs into
yards*
Fantasy
Value
Saquon Barkley NYG 125 636 4 81 60 498 1 1134 300 1494
David Johnson AZ 149 590 3 54 37 296 2 886 300 1223
Todd Gurley LAR 82 383 5 39 31 244 2 627 420 1078
Christian McCaffrey CAR 56 350 2 58 51 421 2 771 240 1062
Joe Mixon CIN 109 583 2 33 27 215 1 798 180 1005
Phillip Lindsay DEN 95 430 1 40 30 226 1 656 120 806
Alvin Kamara NO 71 258 2 51 39 282 1 540 180 759
Peyton Barber TB 106 437 2 18 14 64 1 501 180 695
Ezekiel Elliott DAL 81 434 1 37 25 157 0 591 60 676
Jalen Richard OAK 30 162 0 54 48 456 0 618 0 666
Nyheim Hines IND 43 178 1 45 38 260 2 438 180 656
Derrick Henry TEN 92 395 3 9 8 60 0 455 180 643
Kerryon Johnson DET 49 210 3 29 24 160 1 370 240 634
T.J. Yeldon JAC 35 168 0 44 32 307 2 475 120 627
Nick Chubb CLE 85 340 3 16 11 70 0 410 180 601
Leonard Fournette JAC 58 185 4 13 11 94 1 279 300 590
Kenyan Drake MIA 55 265 1 32 24 181 1 446 120 590
Dion Lewis TEN 70 273 1 42 33 224 0 497 60 590
Jamaal Williams GB 65 274 2 29 21 173 0 447 120 588
Melvin Gordon LAC 61 266 1 32 26 233 0 499 60 585
Lamar Miller HOU 62 309 2 15 12 70 1 379 180 571
Isaiah Crowell NYJ 66 263 3 14 10 78 0 341 180 531
Dalvin Cook MIN 51 225 0 29 24 148 2 373 120 517
Doug Martin OAK 88 369 1 14 9 68 0 437 60 506
Alfred Morris SF 71 320 2 9 6 54 0 374 120 500
Matt Breida SF 59 332 0 14 12 142 0 474 0 486
Duke Johnson CLE 19 108 0 31 23 234 2 342 120 485
Chris Carson SEA 71 295 2 11 9 55 0 350 120 479
Royce Freeman DEN 61 256 3 12 7 30 0 286 180 473
Marlon Mack IND 41 266 3 9 4 19 0 285 180 469
Austin Ekeler LAC 28 141 0 16 14 182 2 323 120 457
Aaron Jones GB 38 235 2 13 10 77 0 312 120 442
Kareem Hunt KC 31 172 0 14 12 184 1 356 60 428
Tevin Coleman ATL 72 272 0 21 15 77 1 349 60 424
James Conner PIT 44 145 2 32 22 137 0 282 120 424
Frank Gore MIA 62 295 0 9 7 61 1 356 60 423
Tarik Cohen CHI 20 116 0 36 29 277 0 393 0 422
Devontae Booker DEN 24 135 1 37 29 195 0 330 60 419
LeSean McCoy BUF 70 212 0 33 25 161 0 373 0 398
Elijah McGuire NYJ 63 215 0 24 15 147 0 362 0 377
Adrian Peterson WAS 84 205 1 12 11 99 0 304 60 375
Jacquizz Rodgers TB 11 36 1 33 27 230 0 266 60 353
Chris Ivory BUF 47 188 1 13 8 85 0 273 60 341
Corey Clement PHI 36 172 1 14 12 95 0 267 60 339
Mike Davis SEA 35 131 0 24 20 124 1 255 60 335
James White NE 15 62 0 31 25 182 1 244 60 329
Theo Riddick DET 16 63 0 48 39 226 0 289 0 328
Alex Collins BAL 31 115 2 11 8 82 0 197 120 325
Jordan Howard CHI 53 190 1 9 6 55 0 245 60 311
Wendell Smallwood PHI 26 112 0 19 15 120 1 232 60 307
Carlos Hyde KC 55 179 2 6 3 3 0 182 120 305
Ito Smith ATL 36 115 1 21 18 107 0 222 60 300
Kyle Juszczyk SF 3 16 0 22 15 207 1 223 60 298
Javorius Allen BAL 13 34 1 25 21 121 1 155 120 296
Alfred Blue HOU 39 159 1 11 9 66 0 225 60 294
Chase Edmonds AZ 42 130 1 19 17 81 0 211 60 288
Josh Adams PHI 49 212 1 7 2 9 0 221 60 283
Trenton Cannon NYJ 26 76 1 22 13 122 0 198 60 271
Chris Thompson WAS 22 50 0 37 29 181 0 231 0 260
Giovani Bernard CIN 24 115 0 24 18 116 0 231 0 249
Kalen Ballage MIA 26 171 1 5 3 5 0 176 60 239
LeGarrette Blount DET 55 201 0 6 6 32 0 233 0 239
Marshawn Lynch OAK 29 179 0 9 6 52 0 231 0 237
Gus Edwards BAL 29 160 1 1 1 7 0 167 60 228
Latavius Murray MIN 31 133 0 16 14 78 0 211 0 225
Mark Ingram NO 38 170 0 12 9 44 0 214 0 223
Sony Michel NE 56 194 0 6 2 6 0 200 0 202
Jeff Wilson SF 25 104 0 10 9 78 0 182 0 191
Jay Ajayi PHI 29 102 1 2 2 2 0 104 60 166
Rashaad Penny SEA 39 150 0 2 2 12 0 162 0 164

Statistics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions
* TDs into yards - equals combined touchdowns times 60
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