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Gone Fishin': A Scott Fish Bowl 14 Preview

Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 6/25/24 |

Straight from the man who created fantasy football's version of the Midsummer Classic, The Scott Fish Bowl is "the premier fantasy tournament in the fantasy football industry." It brings together nearly every fantasy football analyst in the industry, celebrities, former professional athletes and thousands of fans. There are live drafts all over the country and in several different countries as well.

Fish is arguably the most charitable person in the fantasy industry. Along with plenty of help from many others (including but not limited to Ryan McDowell, John Bosch and Bob Gilchrist), he spends countless hours during the late winter and most of the spring organizing this charitable event, which expects to go over 4,000 entries this year.

The Scott Fish Bowl is the main fundraising event for Fantasy Cares - a foundation that has raised hundreds of thousands of dollars for charity. The majority of the funds raised are used to buy toys for kids at Christmas, but Fantasy Cares has also supported dog rescues, hurricane relief efforts, food shelves, the National Coalition Against Domestic Violence and many other worthy causes.

That is not the only unique feature of this league. Fish makes it his mission each year to tweak the scoring system, which adds another challenging layer of competition to a league where managers are trying to beat more than 3,000 other competitors.

Speaking of the unusual setup and scoring system, let's look at what SFB14 has to offer this season:


Roster Size: 22 players (11 starters)
Draft: Snake, third-round reversal (1.12 will pick at 2.01 and 3.01)

Starting Lineup
QB: 1
RB: 1
WR: 1
TE: 1
K: 1
Flex: 6*

* - Leagues will be played on MFL and Sleeper. (On Sleeper, a flex is replaced by a required kicker and kickers cannot be flexed.)

The following is straight from The Scott Fish Bowl page:

6 point passing TD
1 point for 50 yards passing (.02/per)
2 points per two-point conversion

6 point rushing TD
1 point for 10 yards rushing (.1/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
0.5 points per first down
.25 points per carry

6 point receiving TD
1 point for 10 yards receiving (.1/per)
2 points per two-point conversion
0.5 points per first down

TE 1.5 PPR

Extra point per first down for TEs

3.3 points for a made extra point
Decimal scoring bonus for FG (37 yarder = 3.7 points, 24 yarder = 2.4 points)

Special Teams:
10 points for any return TD
1 point for five yards per return
6 points if your player recovers a ball in the end zone for a TD (fumble recovery TD on Sleeper)


SFB14 is a superflex and tight end-premium league at its core, but it is more than that. It is also points per carry (0.1), points per reception and points for first down (0.5 for non-tight ends, 1.5 for tight ends) league. While all TDs are worth six points, "pocket" quarterbacks are significantly minimized by the fact that it takes 50 yards passing to score one point, so athletic quarterbacks are the way to go at that position - for the most part. Very good and elite tight ends can make or break your season. Kickers - especially the Justin Tuckers of the world - are very viable as flex options. To the surprise of virtually no one, high-volume running backs rule the day over their less-involved position mates.

Before we get into the heart of the article, let's look at how position groups fared (with this exact scoring setup) over the last two seasons:

Top 25 (overall points): 8 QBs, 7 RBs, 6 WRs, 4 TEs
Top 25 (average - at least eight games): 8 QBs, 8 RBs, 7 WRs, 2 TEs

Top 50 (overall points): 14 QBs, 13 RBs, 14 WRs, 6 TEs, 3 PKs
Top 50 (average - at least eight games): 14 QBs, 18 RBs, 13 WRs, 5 TEs

Top 100 (overall points): 18 QBs, 28 RBs, 31 WRs, 9 TEs, 14 PKs
Top 100 (average - at least eight games): 21 QBs, 31 RBs, 29 WRs, 12 TEs, 7 PKs

Top 25 (overall points): 8 QBs, 9 RBs, 6 WRs, 2 TEs
Top 25 (average - at least eight games): 9 QBs, 9 RBs, 6 WRs, 1 TE

Top 50 (overall points): 13 QBs, 22 RBs, 11 WRs, 3 TEs, 1 PK
Top 50 (average - at least eight games): 14 QBs, 21 RBs, 11 WRs, 4 TEs

Top 100 (overall points): 19 QBs, 30 RBs, 30 WRs, 8 TEs, 13 PKs
Top 100 (average - at least eight games): 23 QBs, 32 RBs, 31 WRs, 9 TEs, 5 PKs

Now that we know how the positions have fared in this specific scoring system, let's add some context for more perspective:

- Five players (Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Christian McCaffrey, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill) finished inside the top 12 in overall scoring in both seasons.

- Somewhat interestingly, 64 players scored at least 250 fantasy points last season (if we round up on DeVonta Smith's 249.6). In 2022, only 52 cleared that bar (if we round up on Christian Kirk's 249.8).

- Eight quarterbacks, eight running backs, eight receivers and four tight ends topped 20 points per game in 2023. Nine quarterbacks, nine running backs, six receivers and one tight end cleared that bar in 2022.

- Nine players (three quarterbacks, two running backs, three receivers and one tight end) scored at least 20 fantasy points in 10 games last season. In 2022, 11 players (four quarterbacks, five running backs, one receiver and one tight end) accomplished the feat.

- Kyren Williams and Tyreek Hill scored at least 30 fantasy points in a game six times last season. Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Lamar Jackson each had five such efforts. In 2022, Justin Jefferson had eight such games, while Travis Kelce, Josh Allen and Jalen Hurts had seven. Derrick Henry and Justin Fields had six.

- Justin Fields and Russell Wilson outscored Jordan Love, Patrick Mahomes, Brock Purdy, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and Jared Goff last season. Mahomes, Purdy, Herbert, Stroud and Goff were among the group of quarterbacks who failed to average 20 points per game, meaning all of them were no better than low-end QB1s in this scoring system. Kyler Murray averaged more points than everyone from the second group.

- If we give Murray one more game to meet the minimum games played requirement above, exactly nine quarterbacks have averaged at least 20 points in both seasons. (Six of the nine have done so in both seasons: Hurts, Allen, Lamar Jackson, Fields, Dak Prescott and Murray.) Murray's 20.1 point-per-game average was only three-tenths of a point behind Kirk Cousins, who was second in the league in passing yards and first in passing scores before going down with a season-ending Achilles injury in Week 8.

- Anthony Richardson averaged 25.5 points over his first three games (he got hurt early in his fourth, which was the last time he played). That average would have been good for QB3 honors in 2023 and QB4 honors in 2022. It was also higher than all but one running back (Christian McCaffrey) and two receivers (Hill and CeeDee Lamb) in 2023 and all but one running back (Josh Jacobs) and one tight end (Kelce) in 2022.

- The gap between QB1 (Hurts) and QB12 (Joshua Dobbs!!!) last year was just over eight points per game. In 2022, the gap between QB1 and QB12 was nearly 12 points per game.

- Kyren Williams was the only running back within seven points (per game) of McCaffrey in 2023. McCaffrey finished third among running backs in 2022, although his average increased from 22.7 in six games with the Panthers that season to 26.1 in 11 games with the 49ers. In his last 21 non-Week 18 games with San Francisco, CMC has amassed 629.35 fantasy points in this format - an average of 29.97 points.

- If we remove Williams from consideration, no other running back finished within 7.6 points per game of McCaffrey. That is less than the gap between QB1 (Hurts) and QB13 (Mahomes), WR1 (Hill) and WR13 (Mike Evans) and TE1 (Kelce) and TE12 (Jake Ferguson) last season.

- Of the 11 running backs to average at least 20 points per game (rounding up from 19.5) in 2023, six missed at least one game. The group of six combined for 22 absences for an average of 3.6 missed games. In 2022, 13 backs averaged at least 19.5 points. Of that group, seven missed at least one game - four of them missed only one. The other three combined for 16 absences for an average of 5.3 missed games.

- Three receivers (Lamb, Hill and Amon-Ra St. Brown) finished among the top eight scorers in 2023. Only Justin Jefferson did so in 2022.

Rashid Shaheed

- How important is the individual kickoff/punt return scoring this year (Part 1)? Rashid Shaheed was the 27th-highest scorer across all positions in this format last year! Through four weeks in 2023, he was the second-highest scorer. How is that possible? Over that time, he totaled 371 return yards (74.2 fantasy points) for one touchdown (10) and added 12 catches (12) for 185 yards (18.5) and another score (six). He added nine first downs (4.5) and three carries (0.75).

In 2022, DeAndre Carter was the surprise all-star boosted by his return-game contributions. Despite finishing with 46 catches for 538 yards and three touchdowns and two carries for -15 yards, Carter was the 36th-highest scorer across all positions because he added 836 yards on returns.

- How important is the individual kickoff/punt return scoring this year (Part 2)? In Week 14 against the Browns, Dameon Pierce ran three times (0.75 fantasy points) for six yards (0.6) and caught one pass (0.5) for 10 yards (1.0) and a first down (0.5). However, he amassed 174 kickoff return yards (34.8) and ran one back for a touchdown (10), allowing him to score 48.15 fantasy points that week.

- Do not discount kickers. In each of the last two seasons, multiple kickers have placed inside the top 60 overall. Last year, five made the cut (Brandon Aubrey, Jason Sanders, Justin Tucker, Jake Moody and Jake Elliott). In 2022, it was Brett Maher and Tyler Bass. Interestingly, the Cowboys' kicker in both seasons (Aubrey in 2023 and Maher in 2022) has finished as the top-scoring kicker.


While it may be an exercise in futility, I wanted to take a look at what managers should expect from each of their picks on a round-by-round basis, especially since what Fish strives for is balance across positions. I arrived at each average by taking the top 12 scorers across all positions and assuming they went in the first round. I did the same thing with players finishing 13th through 24th serving as the second round and so on. Knowing how many fantasy points we should expect from each draft pick makes it a lot easier to guide our decisions during the draft.

 SFB14 Expected Production
Rd 2022 2023
1 (1-12) 408.1 378.2
2 (13-24) 325.6 318.3
3 (25-36) 293.5 294.8
4 (37-48) 269.3 276.5
5 (49-60) 249.3 265.1
6 (61-72) 240.4 247.5
7 (73-84) 228.5 237.2
8 (85-96) 217.8 225.7
9 (97-108) 206.7 217.5
10 (109-120) 197.1 206.2

Perhaps it helps to look at it in graph form ...

In 2023, McCaffrey (476.3), Hurts (428.9), Allen (424.6), Lamb (408.5), Hill (393.2) and Lamar Jackson (390.2) scored 390 points and no one else scored more than 340.2. In 2022, five players scored at least 422 points and 12 players topped 2022's average (378.2). I think that accounts for the biggest difference in the two seasons.

At the very least, the charts above should give SFB14 drafters an idea of the point total they should expect (hope for) from each of their first 10 selections. Seeing as how 200 points should be the expectation for a 10th-round pick, it also makes a strong case for taking the best kickers much earlier than they typically go in SFB drafts.


The beauty of the starting lineup setup in this league this season is there should be no "perfect way" to draft a team. Yes, securing two very good/elite quarterbacks and one stud tight end early will help the cause, but the first few rounds will be almost entirely about gaining a sizable positional advantage somewhere (QB1, QB2, RB1, WR1 or TE1).

The superflex and tight end premium nature of this format will probably result in quarterbacks and tight ends going much earlier than we are accustomed to, but I am not entirely sure that should be the case - at least not early in the first round. Taking two quarterbacks early and grabbing a strong TE1 will be important and probably should be done by the end of Round 5, however. The (relative) success athletic quarterbacks such as Justin Fields and Joshua Dobbs have enjoyed with the scoring setup suggests that any fantasy team fortunate enough to land a strong anchor - such as Hurts or maybe even Richardson - and Jayden Daniels as its QB2 is probably going to enjoy a deep postseason run. Justin Herbert is another player that managers should be drafting as a QB2, especially if we are confident he will run more in the Chargers' new offense.

Projecting each team's return specialists will be a different and very challenging wrinkle in SFB14. (More on that later.) One other aspect that needs to be mentioned here is the starting lineup requirements. In a league such as this one that features six flex spots and requires only one starting running back, I am going to be very tempted to pick a workhorse like McCaffrey, Bijan Robinson or Breece Hall. After that, I will strive to get two quarterbacks, a receiver and a tight end before I consider running back again. I will also prioritize my stud's handcuff - probably two rounds above SFB14 ADP - and roster no more than four or five high-upside backs. The key to winning any large-scale tournament is hitting on your picks (obviously) and doing everything in your power to make sure your team is built for the long haul. That means avoiding the position most likely to get hurt (running back) and loading up on receivers, who are much more likely to make it through the season. It makes even more sense to load up on receivers if more of them are serving as returners.

Early draft plan for managers with a top-six selection (1.01-1.06):

There appear to be five or six players that warrant legitimate consideration for the top spot, which means managers should be happy if they land a pick inside the top half of their drafts. Each player comes with concerns, but that is par for the course every year. Christian McCaffrey is 28 years old. Jalen Hurts is coming off a down year and may see a slight reduction in "Brotherly Shove" opportunities with Saquon Barkley now in town. He is also running his third different offense in three years. Josh Allen may no longer have Stefon Diggs and must rely on a largely unproven receiving corps. Travis Kelce will turn 35 years old early in October and could continue to see his reps managed early in the season. Lamar Jackson could lose some rushing production with Derrick Henry now in the fold in Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes was the No. 4 overall scorer as recently as 2022, but he needed to throw for 5,250 yards and 41 touchdowns to get there. Even with an improved supporting cast, that is a high bar.

McCaffrey and his 30 points-per-game average over his last 21 games as a 49er (and, perhaps most notably, the 7.7-point advantage he could easily enjoy over most of the rest of the field at running back) may be the biggest advantage of them all. However, that only matters if Bijan Robinson and Breece Hall fail to close the gap in what should be much better offenses this season. The problem with passing on CMC at No. 1 overall is if he continues to score at the same astronomical rate he has for the last 1 1/4 seasons, there may be only two more chances to land an all-purpose elite RB1 (Robinson and Hall) before the 24th selection. The odds are neither one will come close to making it back. If they do, there is a distinct possibility you have secured two sizeable positional advantages through two rounds (RB1 and the first non-superflex flex spot).

The "safe" move is probably to roll with one of the four quarterbacks above and let the rest of the draft fall into place. For example, a Hurts-Hall-Jayden Daniels-Kyle Pitts start could easily begin the season with positional advantage at what I believe are the four most important spots in this setup (QB1, QB2, RB1 and TE1). The amount of rushing upside at quarterback in a scoring system that so heavily favors running quarterbacks likely means at least 75 percent of the league has little chance of competing with you at either quarterback spot. Using the chart above, we need our first- and second-round picks to account for at least 700 points. There is a distinct possibility a Hurts-Daniels start could push for 750 or even 780 points. There is enough uncertainty about Daniels in the fantasy community that he could slip to 3.12, although I would not count on that happening. (Herbert is a better bet to last that long.) Once again citing the chart above, we want our first three picks in this scoring format to account for at least 1,000 fantasy points. A case could be made that a Hurts-Hall-Daniels start in Rounds 1-3 could push for 1,100. Even if Hall is gone, Jonathan Taylor, Kyren Williams, Jahmyr Gibbs or Derrick Henry are among the backs who could offer similar production.

I do not want to discount Kelce as a top-five pick, but the fact that Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid and even maybe Pitts could be legitimate challengers to his overall TE1 throne this year gives me pause. If Kelce is truly no longer in a class of his own at the position, then his managers could miss the elite QB1 and RB1 options. I also think it is unrealistic to expect a non-quarterback who will turn 35 years old during the season to serve as an anchor for fantasy teams.

Early draft plan for managers with a pick in the 1.07-1.12 range:

Assuming I am right about the top six picks, managers should expect CeeDee Lamb, Sam LaPorta, Joe Burrow, Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, C.J. Stroud, Bijan Robinson, Breece Hall and Anthony Richardson to account for at least 10 of the next 11 or 12 picks. The temptation will be there to draft receivers such as Lamb and Hill for the same reason they are tempting in regular drafts (huge upside at a position and less injury risk). However, the SFB14 setup - specifically the requirement of needing to start only one receiver - reduces the urgency of drafting those players that one might feel in a league that requires managers to start three receivers. Everything after the first pick made at each position (excluding quarterback since we should assume managers will fill the superflex spot with a quarterback) is a flex option. Injury risk is probably the only other major consideration to account for other than upside after the five most important spots on your SFB14 roster are filled (QB1, QB2, RB1, WR1, TE1).

I would not go so far as to say no receivers should go in the first round (Hill and Lamb should still be good choices), but recent history tells us they need to have a near-historic season to make a push for 400 fantasy points in this scoring setup. It is a lot to ask, but 400 points needs to be the target for drafters with their first-round pick in SFB14. Take St. Brown for example, The "Sun God" was awesome in 2023 with 119 catches for 1,515 yards and 10 scores. His 338 fantasy points with SFB14 scoring is great in 95 percent of most leagues, but it is 40 points below the average of what we needed for our first-round picks in 2023 and 70 points below what we needed from our first-round picks in 2022.

LaPorta should be a better NFL player in 2024 than he was as a rookie, but where will he get better statistically? He caught 71.7 percent of his 120 targets in 2023. How much higher can his catch rate get? Will he see much more than 120 targets with Jameson Williams seemingly ready to go and Jahmyr Gibbs pushing for work in the receiving game? I think we can safely assume St. Brown's place in the offense is secure. Can LaPorta score more than last season's 10 touchdowns? Even after he posted the best season ever by a rookie tight end, LaPorta finished with 320.15 fantasy points last year. As good as that is, he is well short of the territory he needs to be in to be an average first-round pick in SFB14. He needs to push for 100 catches and 1,000 yards to get there.

We have already established quarterbacks who do not run a lot need to light the fantasy world on fire to compete with the top options at the position. Burrow's 4,475 yards passing and 35 touchdowns (and 88 scoreless yards rushing) in 2022 would have been just good enough to hit the first-round pick scoring average of 2023. Stroud is undoubtedly a great candidate to blow right past last year's production (4,108 passing yards and 23 TDs to go along with 167 rushing yards and three more scores), but do we want to count on either player ascending into Mahomes' territory and pushing for 4,800 yards and 38 touchdowns? I would easily take Richardson before either one and live with his injury risk. For me, Richardson is an easy pick at 1.07 and perhaps even 1.06 - ahead of Kelce. His ceiling is ridiculously high if he stays healthy this season.

Robinson and Hall are easy first-round picks for me as well. They are the only running backs that appear to have a legitimate chance to close the gap on McCaffrey. (Again, think about gaining positional advantage as early and often as possible.) I want to come out of the first two rounds with either two elite dual-threat quarterbacks (perhaps a Richardson-Daniels start?) or one elite dual-threat quarterback and one elite running back. It just takes too much for receivers to stand out in this scoring to put a huge priority on getting one in the first two rounds. I am also confident enough in options such as Mark Andrews, Jake Ferguson and Kyle Pitts to pass on tight end in the first two-plus rounds, although I would like to have my TE1 option secured no later than the fourth round.


Here is a rough draft of how I expect most competitive SFB14 drafts to start (focus more on the players and less on the exact order they are drafted below). THESE ARE NOT MY RANKINGS! (I expect to have a top 100 list ready by the end of next week. I do not draft until July 21.)

Remember to read from left to right for the first and fourth rounds and from right to left for the second and third rounds.

As noted earlier, kick and punt returners will be much more valuable in SFB14 than most typical leagues - especially if they have any kind of significant role on offense (third-down back, slot receiver, etc.). Courtesy of Ourlads, I will list each team's projected kick and punt return in the table below:

ARI DeeJay Dallas/Greg Dortch Greg Dortch/DeeJay Dallas
ATL Avery Williams/Ray-Ray McCloud Avery Williams/Ray-Ray McCloud
BAL Justice Hill/Deonte Harty Tylan Wallace/Deonte Harty
BUF Khalil Shakir/Ty Johnson Daequan Hardy/Khalil Shakir
CAR Raheem Blackshear/D'Shawn Jamison Ihmir Smith-Marsette/Raheem Blackshear
CHI Velus Jones Jr./DeAndre Carter DeAndre Carter/Velus Jones Jr.
CIN Trayveon Williams/Chris Evans Charlie Jones
CLE Nyheim Hines/Pierre Strong Nyheim Hines/James Proche
DAL KaVontae Turpin/Deuce Vaughn KaVontae Turpin/Deuce Vaughn
DEN Marvin Mims/Jaleel McLaughlin Marvin Mims/Tremon Smith
DET Sione Vaki/Khalil Dorsey Kalif Raymond/Sione Vaki
GB Keisean Nixon/Jayden Reed Jayden Reed/Keisean Nixon
HOU Dameon Pierce/Steven Sims Steven Sims/Desmond King
IND Josh Downs/Anthony Gould Josh Downs/Anthony Gould
JAX Devin Duvernay/Keilan Robinson Devin Duvernay/Parker Washington
KC Kadarius Toney/Deneric Prince Xavier Worthy/Mecole Hardman
LAC Derius Davis Derius Davis
LAR Boston Scott/Kenny Logan Kyren Williams/Sam Wiglusz
LV Tre Tucker/Tulu Griffin Tre Tucker
MIA Braxton Berrios/Tahj Washington Braxton Berrios
MIN Kene Nwangwu/Ty Chandler Brandon Powell/Devron Harper
NE Jalen Reagor DeMario Douglas
NO Rashid Shaheed/Taysom Hill Rashid Shaheed/Jermaine Jackson
NYG Tyrone Tracy/Isaiah McKenzie Isaiah McKenzie/Gunner Olszewski
NYJ Xavier Gipson/Tarik Cohen Xavier Gipson
PHI Isaiah Rodgers/Will Shipley Britain Covey/Cooper DeJean
PIT Cordarrelle Patterson/Quez Watkins Calvin Austin
SF Jordan Mason/Ronnie Bell Ricky Pearsall/Trent Taylor
SEA Dee Eskridge/Laviska Shenault Easop Winston/Dee Williams
TB Bucky Irving Jalen McMillan
TEN Tyjae Spears Jha'Quan Jackson/Kearis Jackson
WAS Chris Rodriguez Jamison Crowder/Jahan Dotson

*** Players listed in red are defensive players.

The caveat to the information above is that plenty of return jobs are won during training camp and preseason action. However, if we assume all the names above are in contention for return jobs, several names above stand out.

Khalil Shakir, Marvin Mims, Jaleel McLaughlin, Jayden Reed, Josh Downs, Demario Douglas, Rashid Shaheed and Tyjae Spears are the players that jump off the page. One could easily make the case based on last year's finish alone that Shaheed should be drafted as early as the 10th round. The problem with doing so is that new OC Klint Kubiak could decide he is too valuable to the offense and ask that his special teams reps be limited. On the other hand, a starting receiver - especially one as slight as the 180-pound Shaheed - who handles kick AND punt return duties may present too much upside to pass on in the double-digit rounds.

All of the other players listed in the preceding paragraph will be drafted in the middle rounds regardless of whether they win return jobs or not, so managers are encouraged to draft any of them well ahead of the SFB14 ADP that will likely be established early in July.

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.

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