Goff is coming off what was arguably his best season, and certainly
near his peak fantasy production of 2018 (4688-32-12). The Lions
had a productive off-season and are maturing around Dan Campbell.
While Goff won’t have access to the services of Jameson Williams
just yet, the receiving group of star Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh
Reynolds, Kalif Raymond, Marvin Jones and rookie Sam LaPorta is
ample. The running back tandem of Gibbs and Montgomery offer a
receiving boon over former Lions D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams.
Most importantly, Goff is walking into a potential shootout (highest
total of the week) against a Chiefs team that was absolutely scalded
by QB’s last season, and is without fierce pass rusher Chris Jones.
Montgomery should have more than his share of high-quality matchups
this season, stepping into Jamaal Williams shoes, but his production
in this game may largely hinge on whether the Lions can keep the
offense in the positive game script or not. The workload split
with Gibbs is still an unknown but we can safely project more
early-down and perhaps goaline work for Montgomery. With Chris
Jones out, and Travis Kelce likely joining him, the Lions have
a great shot to play from ahead in this game. But there’s certainly
significant risk, as the Chiefs are still run by Andy Reid and
Patrick Mahomes and could easily force the Lions hand into playing
the electric Gibbs in catchup-mode.
As Clyde Edwards-Helaire faded to black for the Chiefs last year,
Jerrick McKinnon began to emerge as an important piece of the
offense – most particularly in the passing game. By season’s end,
he had played about half of the team’s offensive snaps, and collected
career high’s with 56 catches, 512 receiving yards, and 10 total
touchdowns. Along the way, he had some big late-season performances,
including back-to-back RB1 efforts in Weeks 14 and 15. He’s poised
for a great opportunity to enter that territory in Week 1 versus
a Lions defense that is vulnerable, even while improved. Patrick
Mahomes also appears to have an extra 8 to 10 targets to distribute
sans Kelce, and McKinnon makes for a strong check down. To top
it off, the Lions could gain in the edge this game and force Pacheco
off the field for much of it, meaning McKinnon could see a 60-70
percent snap rate.
Gray is likely to start this week, with Kelce having hyperextended
his knee. The backup tight end has been respectably productive
throughout his early development, with Mahomes posting 109 and
113 passer ratings on his targets through his first two years,
plus adding a 1-yard touchdown rush. But Kelce’s shoes are too
big to expect Gray to fill, and the Chiefs have a boatload of
young talent at receiver, creating a murky situation where any
one (or number) of Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney, Rashee Rice and
Justyn Ross emerging as a go-to. There’s also the previously mentioned
Jerick McKinnon, and Patrick Mahomes always has his legs to turn
to as a last resort. Gray is a roll-of-the-dice start for fantasy
managers who came up short at the tight end position in the draft.
There’s a lot to like about this Chris Carson-esque back,
especially in an offense that is likely to see a lot of the red
zone this year. But the Chiefs could find themselves in the unusual
position of being behind on opening day, and there’s a very
real risk that Pacheco spends a lot of time on the bench as a
result. In such a scenario, starting him could cost you the week.
Somebody needs to catch passes for the Texans this season, and
with the top three being unproven (Nico Collins), past their prime
(Robert Woods), or a career special teamer with one decent season
(Noah Brown), Schultz could be that guy. The former Cowboy is
just one year removed from a 78-808-8 effort, and he’s seeking
to rebuild his value on a make-good contract after his production
fell off in 2022. Motivation and opportunity are an attractive
combo for fantasy production, and garbage-time yards count the
same as any other.
Having played at a high-profile program and being selected second
overall, Stroud carries a lot of name recognition into his first
NFL start. Don’t get tempted. The rookie is already behind
the fantasy eight-ball by virtue of not being a running quarterback,
and the talent around him at the skill positions is in the discussion
for worst in the NFL. Add a road start against a tough defense
and Stroud could be in for a long day.
Baltimore sunk a lot of resources into providing Jackson with
better talent around him, and that includes Flowers, who was selected
in the first round of this year’s draft. While it’s
still very much to be determined as to how the pecking order forms
up behind Andrews, the rookie garnered a lot of positive feedback
during training camp, and his short-area quickness could make
him a frequent target. Flowers is no better than a WR4, but if
you want to roll the dice on a Ravens receiver on Sunday lean
toward him.
While Flowers and, to a lesser extent, Rashod Bateman, are unknown
commodities, everyone knows Beckham. At one point, OBJ was in
the conversation for best receiver in the NFL. That was several
years ago, however, and the 30-year-old hasn’t even played a snap
since tearing his ACL in the Rams-Bengals Super Bowl following
the 2021 season. It’s plausible that Beckham will bounce back
and at least resemble the player he once was, but you’d be wise
to take a wait-and-see approach before starting him.
As a member of the Eagles, Sanders entered last season as a lead
back and rewarded his owners with the best rushing season of his
career, finishing with 1,269 rushing yards and 11 scores. Now
he brings his talent to Carolina where he will once again be the
lead dog in the backfield. The Panthers’ wide receivers are struggling
to get healthy enough to play. Neither Adam Thielen nor D.J. Chark
practiced on Thursday, bringing into question their availability
for the season opener. But even if Thielen and Chark play, Sanders’
production could be stunted. The Falcons were middle-of-the-pack
(17th) against RBs in fantasy points per game last season and
the low game total (39.5) doesn’t inspire fantasy confidence.
If you’re forced to start Sanders as a low-end RB2, you might
want to do so with tempered expectations.
Placing rookie QBs in your starting lineup in their first NFL
game is the kind of on-the-edge fantasy playing I’d personally
rather not indulge in. Bryce Young’s prospects for success
on Sunday would be slim even if Thielen and Chark were healthy.
Both being question marks further renders Young a healthy fade.
Young may become a viable low-end QB2 this season, but it won’t
begin in Week 1. Look elsewhere while remaining patient with the
talented rookie signal-caller.
I get it. Kyle Pitts underperformed last season. Like many of
you, I drafted him in 2022 and expected solid production, only
to join the long line of fantasy owners feeling disenchanted about
the promising TE’s usage in the offense. I subscribe to the notion
that Marcus Mariota’s limited skillset at QB contributed mightily
to head coach Arthur Smith’s leaning more on the run than any
other team in the league. While Desmond Ridder won’t remind folks
of Dan Marino, he is considered a more advanced passer than Mariota
and thus should be called upon to open the offense a bit more
this season. Expect Pitts to rebound nicely from last season and
deliver, at worst, a low-end TE1 in 2023.
While I expect Atlanta’s offense to be more open this season,
I do not anticipate it being to the degree that it will consistently
support two startable pass-catchers—at least not in Week
1. In the run-dominate offense of last season, Drake London had
a 28 percent target share. I believe London will again be the
top dog in the passing game, but I also suspect Atlanta’s
passing offense won’t be needed for the full 60 minutes
on Sunday. The Falcons should separate themselves at some point,
giving them the luxury of leaning on a run game that should be
one of the league’s best.
The good news: Desmond Ridder is an upgrade over Marcus Mariota.
The bad news: he remains an inexperienced QB in an anticipated
run-first offense. Ridder finds himself on the waiver wire in
most one-QB leagues, which is where he should stay for now. But
he’s a wait-and-see candidate for rostering. Nonetheless,
the offense still needs competent play under center; the jury
remains out as to whether or not Ridder is the answer. Time will
tell.
A season ago, the Cincinnati passing game was essentially six
players. Two of them are gone, with Hayden Hurst (52-414-2) and
Samaje Perine (38-287-4) collectively taking 90 receptions and
a half-dozen touchdowns with them. Hurst’s direct replacement
is Smith, a former second-round pick of the Vikings that flashed
during his tenure in Minnesota but was ultimately undone by injuries
-- he played in just eight games over the past two seasons combined.
His upside is interesting, and if you’re looking for a plug-and-play
option for this weekend, Smith could fit the bill.
Entering his age-30 campaign, Boyd is the elder statesman among
Burrow’s primary receiving options. The veteran’s
output has gone down each of the last three seasons, dipping from
a 90-1046-5 effort in 2019 all the way to a 58-762-5 this past
year. Boyd caught three passes for 38 yards and a score in two
games against the Browns in 2022, though it’s worth noting
he got injured early in the second meeting. The veteran will flash
here and there, but he’s not worth starting in Week 1.
Without question, Watson failed to impress in his six-game stint
to close last year. Flush it and forget it. The Clemson product
spent all of 2021 embroiled in a contract dispute with the Texans,
and then he was suspended for 11 games to open 2022. A layoff
of that length will adversely affect anyone. Arguably his most
effective performance in a Browns uniform came against the Bengals
in his second start, passing for a season-best 276 yards and a
touchdown. He also ran for 33 yards. Watson was a dynamic weapon
before his off-field issues, and at 28 he should still have time
to recapture that form.
We’ve waited years for Njoku, the highly paid former first-round
pick, to deliver as a pass catcher. We’re still waiting. The hope
is that a reinvigorated Watson will elevate those around him,
including Njoku, who had a 7-59-1 effort against the Bengals with
Watson under center. Peoples-Jones, meanwhile, had a season-high
114 yards on eight receptions in that same game. He had 81 yards
on four grabs in the earlier meeting between the two clubs, so
DPJ excelled against his rivals last year.
In five regular-season starts as a rookie, Purdy averaged 220
yards, 2.2 TDs, and 0.4 INTs per game through the air. That’s
decent production if it was being supplemented by some ground
yardage, but the Iowa State alum isn’t a runner -- he ran
for 16 yards and a touchdown in a Wild Card win over Seattle,
but beyond that he never reached double-digits in a game. With
so many weapons surrounding him, Purdy should be useable at times,
but with such a small sample size it’d be aggressive to
deploy him here.
There’s an argument to be made for Aiyuk being the steadiest
pass catcher on the 49ers, but he lacks the weekly upside of Samuel,
and he’s not among the best options at a shallow position
like Kittle. With Pittsburgh boasting a good defense with legitimate
impact players in both coverage and the pass rush, it’s
far from clear there’ll be enough value this Sunday to support
three receivers -- not to mention whatever level of involvement
McCaffrey has. You can try Aiyuk as a low-end WR3, at best.
For as good as the 49ers are, they can’t cover everything.
As an addendum to that, they’re more likely to concede the
short and intermediate throws versus deep balls, and that’s
where Johnson excels. Everyone knows the veteran wideout went
the entirety of 2022 without scoring a touchdown, and that has
artificially devalued him. Only six players were targeted more
than Johnson last year, and he should be busy again this Sunday.
He can be plugged in as a solid WR3.
Without question, Pickens has gotten more love during the preseason
than Johnson, being tabbed in national media as a possible breakout
target. He flashed as a rookie while leading the team in yards
per reception (15.4) and touchdowns (4), and his 17 catches of
20 yards or more was more than double Johnson (7). As noted, however,
the 49ers are likely to prioritize keeping Pickens from working
downfield, which could lead to a disappointing opener. Then again,
if he’s really grown like many have suggested, perhaps this
will serve as his coming out party. He’s a risk/reward WR3/WR4.
Pickett was nearly flawless in limited burn this preseason, and
like Pickens, the young quarterback has been discussed as a second-year
leap candidate. The 49ers know how to make life miserable on young
passers, though, especially now that Nick Bosa has worked out
his contract stalemate. Pickett may indeed become a viable QB1
this season, but you’d be wise to keep him benched in the opener.
It’s tough to be too excited about anything happening in this
Arizona offense that is projected to be amongst the worst in the
league, but one thing we should feel at least relatively confident
in is that running back James Conner will continue to be a featured
asset. Conner was wildly lucky in the touchdown department in
2021 when he scored 18 times on just 1,127 total yards, which
caused many to believe that he was suddenly the second coming
of Marcus Allen at the goal line. His ADP skyrocketed as a result
and this led to disappointed fantasy owners, many of whom are
now off of Conner because he had a more reasonable eight touchdowns
on just slightly fewer yards this past season. Even despite the
dramatic drop-off in scores, Conner finished the 2022 season as
a top-10 fantasy back in fantasy points per game in half-point
PPR formats and there’s plenty of reason to believe that he’ll
see a similar workload here in 2023. Sure, his high-end potential
isn’t quite as strong, but he’s facing a Washington team in Week
1 that isn’t likely to set the scoreboard on fire, so there’s
a good chance that Conner will see one of his higher touch totals
of the season and that should make him a viable RB2.
Fantasy managers have every reason to avoid this entire passing
game as long as Kyler Murray is sidelined, but one thing that
history tells us is that inexperienced quarterbacks tend to lean
heavily on one specific target in their passing game, oftentimes
delivering a high enough target share to make those players solid
fantasy options even if the quality of the targets is drastically
lower than what they’re used to seeing. That could be the case
early this season as the Cardinals settle in with either Joshua
Dobbs or Clayton Tune behind center, and the player who’s most
likely to see that increased target share is wide receiver Marquise
Brown.
Brown is coming off of the worst fantasy season of his career,
in large part due to some nagging injuries that kept him off the
field during the middle of 2022. He also seemed to struggle to
find his usual explosiveness down the stretch while being stuck
behind DeAndre Hopkins on the depth chart.
With Hopkins now gone, Brown is really the only receiver in this
offense who’s ever produced any sort of usable fantasy numbers.
He has a 1,000-yard season under his belt and should be the clear-cut
WR1 in this offense. He’s not a sexy option and certainly
not without risk, but you could do worse than Brown against a
Commanders defense that gave up 15 receiving touchdowns to opposing
wide receivers this past season.
The fact that the Cardinals still have not officially announced
their starting quarterback just goes to show that they are not
convinced that any of their options are actually worthy of being
on the field here in Week 1. But even with that being the case,
someone is going to be out there calling plays and probably throwing
interceptions.
Whether it’s Dobbs or Tune, this is not a situation we
want any part of for fantasy purposes. Stay away.
He hasn’t yet shown himself to be the WR1 in this offense, but
2022 rookie Jahan Dotson began to skyrocket up the draft board
late this summer when it was revealed that Terry McLaurin (toe)
was already dealing with an injury. Dotson himself dealt with
injuries during his rookie season and that limited what could
have potentially been a breakout season for him, but it’s worth
considering that Dotson was highly effective in his limited playing
time, particularly with his ability to score touchdowns. Dotson
scored seven touchdowns despite playing in just 12 total games
as a rookie and the team really didn’t invest much at wide receiver
this offseason, so it makes sense to expect that Dotson will be
a focal point in this Washington passing game.
There’s also a decent chance that the Commanders will have
plenty of opportunities on Arizona’s side of the field,
which could actually give him a higher-than-usual opportunity
for a touchdown even though the game is not expected to become
a shootout.
One of the better under-the-radar late-round QB2s this season
is Washington’s Sam Howell, who quietly rushed for 35 yards
and a touchdown to go along with 169 passing yards, a passing
touchdown, and only one interception in a victory against an excellent
Cowboys defense in Week 18 of the 2022 season. Many fantasy managers
are unaware that Howell was actually quite effective as a runner
in college, particularly in his final season as a junior at North
Carolina when he rushed for an impressive 828 yards and 11 touchdowns.
No, he’s not Lamar Jackson, but Howell could very well provide
a rushing floor that makes him a solid QB2 this season and he’s
someone who fantasy managers should be keeping an eye on.
The running back situation in Washington is expected to be a
committee again and while it’s always risky to project game
scripts, it’s tough not to look at the Cardinals and think,
“this is a Robinson game.” The Cardinals are expected
to be absolutely terrible, which could mean an early lead for
the Commanders, which would almost certainly lead to a heavy workload
for Robinson. The Cardinals conceded the third-most fantasy points
to opposing running backs during the 2022 season and there’s
a real chance that they’re even worse here in 2023.
With Jahan Dotson and Brian Robinson being players that we can
reasonably put into our lineups here in Week 1, it makes sense
that their counterparts - Terry McLaurin and Antonio Gibson -
are not giving us quite as much confidence.
McLaurin has been a solid WR2 throughout most of his career,
but much of that has been due to his ability to stay on the field
as he’s missed just three regular-season games throughout
his four-year NFL career. He’s expected to play here in
Week 1, but the fact that he’s already been dealing with
a sprained toe is certainly cause for concern. It’s also
worth considering that the Commanders could get out to an early
lead and end up giving McLaurin some additional rest time to prepare
him for a more difficult matchup against the Broncos in Week 2.
Gibson is a player who just screams potential, but the Commanders
have never quite committed to him being their every down back.
With Brian Robinson Jr. having a stranglehold on the early-down
work, Gibson has been relegated to primarily being a change-of-pace
runner as well as a target in the passing game. That’s not
a bad role, but it’s not necessarily one that we want to
be targeting here in Week 1 for fantasy purposes, as Washington
could very well end up running away with this game and just feeding
Robinson rather than Gibson.
Last season, Evans (77-1,124-6) and Godwin (104-1,023-3) were
1,000-yard receivers for Tom Brady. This year, the jury is out.
To be fair, both players experienced success before the arrival
of TB12, most notably Evans, who has finished with more than 1,000
yards in each of his nine seasons. Still, Baker Mayfield has put
up pedestrian numbers for most of his career, and that could obviously
trickle down to Godwin and Evans, who is also involved in a contract
dispute with the club. You can insert the wideouts into your lineup
as WR3s in Week 1 and hopefully we’ll get a sense of what the
passing game is going to look like in 2023.
Over the past two seasons, Mayfield has topped 250 yards passing
in a game exactly twice, with the last one coming on Oct. 10,
2021, against the Chargers. He’s appeared in 21 games (19
starts) since then. It’s about this time every year that
people start to think maybe things will be different. He was the
No. 1 overall pick after all. Until Mayfield strings together
multiple games with some meaningful production, however, he can’t
be trusted in a QB1 slot.
Here’s what we know. Cousins is a steady triggerman, Jefferson
is an absolute star, and Hockenson looks like a top-five pass-catching
tight end. Here’s what we don’t know. Is Jordan Addison and/or
K.J. Osborn ready to step up and fill the role Adam Thielen handled
over the last several seasons since Cousins arrived from Washington.
There were also rumblings during the offseason of an increased
focus on the running game this year, so we’ll see if that bears
out in Week 1. Cousins is a fringe QB1 candidate.
Addison got some buzz early in camp, and there’s no doubt
he’ll get to see plenty of single coverage with defenses
focused on limiting Jefferson and, to a lesser extent, Hockenson.
Still, we don’t know what his chemistry level is with Cousins,
or whether the quarterback will favor him or Osborn in that tertiary
role. It’s always tempting to roll with rookie wideouts
based on upside, but keeping Addison on the bench looks like the
safer play here.
I hate that I missed out on Calvin Ridley in my home league.
He was taken one pick before my selection, and I ended up with
Chris Olave. I targeted Ridley because I had him on my team during
his last full season in 2020, when his 1,374 receiving yards were
6th in the league. Ridley arrives in Jacksonville as the team’s
WR1, but he has solid complementary pieces in Christian Kirk and
Zay Jones who both should attract enough defensive attention to
make Ridley’s navigation in the secondary a bit less daunting.
Start Ridley with confidence.
I firmly believe that QB Trevor Lawrence will be in the MVP conversation
this year. That will require some supporting players to have productive
seasons—chief among them, TE Evan Engram. The Jags expressed
belief in Engram with a three-year extension in the off-season,
giving Lawrence one of the top pass-catching groups in the NFL.
Engram should control the middle of the field while giving Lawrence
a big target down the seam. I expect Jacksonville to control this
contest, getting up big with downfield throws while milking the
clock on the ground late in the second half. Hopefully Engram
can put up numbers before the Jaguars take the air out of the
ball.
Compared to some NFL teams, Jacksonville has an embarrassment
of riches in the WR room. With so many solid options as targets,
there will be times when someone will be the odd man out. This
week it might be Zay Jones. Moving from WR2 on Jacksonville in
2022 to WR3 this season should pay dividends for the team while
perhaps rendering Jones to nothing more than a high-end fantasy
WR4.
To those with the courage to start a rookie QB in his first NFL
action, I say Godspeed. Anthony Richardson has tremendous upside,
but the bulk of the reasoning behind thinking Richardson will
buck the trend of rookie signal-callers amassing startable productivity
is his running prowess. And, indeed, there is something to be
said about what Richardson will do on the ground, but I personally
exercise caution when deciding to start a rookie QB. Besides,
what happens if the Colts find themselves behind early in the
game, as most are predicting? Richardson will probably be a thing
in 2023; just not in September.
For many of the same reasons above, I would fade Pittman in this
contest. I suspect he will have a number of down weeks due to
what’s anticipated to be Richardson’s penchant for
running and head coach Shane Steichen’s more conservative
approach. The Colts offense is without a game-changing skill players,
which will further limit Pittman’s ceiling. Buyer beware.
It’s easy to forget just how good DeAndre Hopkins has been,
although the previous two seasons has left some fantasy owners
wanting more. We can expect Hopkins to be peppered with targets
as the only pass catcher on the Titans roster with any history
of productivity in the league. When healthy, Hopkins has historically
gotten more than 150 targets. Being the focus of the offense to
that degree should continue for Hopkins in the Music City.
Ryan Tannehill is probably not under consideration to start in
most one-QB leagues but may be an option in Superflex leagues.
The Saints have typically been stingy on defense and gave up the
4th fewest fantasy points to QBs last season. Either way, Tannehill
is a middling option at best and should be best left on your bench.
There simply isn’t enough meat on the offensive bone in
Tennessee to support two pass catchers, and Treylon Burks is the
odd man out in that scenario. He played 11 games last year during
his rookie campaign and scored but one TD. His sophomore season
may only get a notch or two above that, which translates into
a fantasy player who may have difficulty making your starting
lineup.
Jamaal Williams will have the backfield to himself on Sunday,
with Alvin Kamara sitting out the first of three games and rookie
RB Kendre Miller (hamstring) unable to practice so far this week.
Williams was a scoring machine last season in Detroit, breaking
Barry Sanders’ franchise record with 17 rushing TDs. He should
get all the goal line and short yardage carries but nothing through
the passing game. That’s okay. Williams is a serviceable low-end
RB2 to start the 2023 campaign.
Michael Thomas was an absolute ball hog in the heyday of his
productivity. Problem is, we haven’t seen that level of
production since 2019 when he was getting an eye-popping 32 percent
of targets. We have no idea if Thomas can find glimpses of his
old self. What we do know is Thomas is now a 30-year-old receiver
with a recent history of lower body injuries. Not a great formula
for success. No longer does the passing game go through Thomas
in New Orleans; it’s now Chris Olave’s party, and
Thomas is just hoping to get an invitation.
Derek Carr is as average a QB as you will find in the NFL. Not
horrible, not great, but okay. A solid player. Such a pedestrian
overview does not bode well for one’s fantasy potential.
This is not the Saints from the previous decade with an explosive
offense and options aplenty. This version of the Saints, I suspect,
will be a middle-of-the-road group outside of Olave. Plan accordingly.
Jakobi Myers reunites with Josh McDaniels, and appears to have
upgraded at quarterback (Jimmy Garoppolo > Mac Jones) – at least
as long as Jimmy G stays healthy. In an offense that could find
itself throwing the ball 50-100 more times than the Patriots did
last season, Meyers could finally break 900 yards receiving and
a 90-reception season is possible.
Facing the Broncos defense poses serious challenges, though.
Denver moved some parts around on defense, but their core unit
remains intact and did a solid job of filling in the gaps where
they could have taken losses (ie. losing Dre’Mont Jones but adding
Zach Allen). Denver was also the second most injured team in the
NFL last year, according to mangameslost.com, and had the most
“key games lost” according to si.com. In short, the Broncos should
boast another very tough defense, and FFToday’s Fantasy Points
Allowed indicates that they were the second most cruel defense
to wide receivers. Myers is a borderline Flex option against this
unit, even with the Raiders playing in a negative game script
for much of the day.
The Broncos were vulnerable against tight ends last year, giving
up over a 100 combined receptions and rushes, 1075 combined yards,
and 8 total touchdowns. It’s not apparent that they’ve made the
kind of changes to resolve this issue, though they’ll pin some
of those hopes on 3rd round selection LB Drew Sanders. Still,
it’s going to be hard for the Raiders to see the red zone. All
told, the veteran Hooper and rookie Mayer are both fringe plays
even without the snap competition and it’ll be hard for either
to get enough traction to count on this week.
Williams was the toast of the fantasy world just a year ago before
an injury derailed his 2022 season. It’s very easy to over correct
for a previous injury, especially following a lot of hype. Most
often, though, the injury past does not predict the injury future.
Shrug off any particular concerns about Williams, as navigating
the running back position is always like swimming through a sea
of knives, no matter who you put out there. Trust in the fact
that no team in recent memory has appeared more dedicated to having
a beatable defense year after year than the Raiders, and 2022
saw them surrender nearly 25 FPts/G to RBs. Samaje Perine should
see his share of action, but the Broncos are favorites in this
game and that likely means a lot of pounding the ball with Williams.
Not long ago, Wilson would have been in the No-Brainer column.
Unfortunately, both a loss of mobility and the possibility that
Wilson needs strong coaching and a long learning curve to succeed,
has seen his fantasy status fall from the stars. While Sean Payton
coming to town could solve some of the problems and spark a revival,
there are still questions surrounding the Broncos QB situation.
Russell Wilson of 2022 was very capable of missing out on ripe
opportunities against weak match ups, such as when he failed to
throw a touchdown in Week 11 against the Raiders. Add in the fact
that Jerry Jeudy’s status is up in the air, and it puts
Wilson (and Jeudy) squarely on the fence.
The Chargers were vulnerable to the running attack, and while
their defense is poised to be healthier this year, the gains –
most specifically in Joey Bosa - appear to be far more significant
in defending the pass than in defending the run. Only the Texans
allowed more rushing yards than the Chargers did last year, despite
Los Angeles outscoring their opponents and enjoying 10-win season.
Despite drafting Devon Achane, the Dolphins should at least compete
well enough to keep Mostert on the field and see plenty of carries.
Interestingly enough, five of seven games in which Mostert saw
a 60%+ snap rate came in Dolphins’ losses. Fire him up.
Entering his third year in the league, blessed with an elite
wide receiver pairing, Tua blossomed. The only snag in his season
was the serious damage he repeatedly took from concussions. Durability
is a real concern for him both as a player and in terms of his
life prospects, and that may be quickly tested by the Joey Bosa-led
Chargers pass rush and a defense that promises to be better if
healthier, themselves. It’s poised to be an interesting battle
to see who gets the upper hand, but with the injury-laden 2022
Chargers still holding opposing QB’s to just 16.8 FPts/G and the
Fins going on the road, it could be a tough enough matchup to
keep a QB1 day out of Tua’s reach.
Achane looks more likely than not to get his first career action
against the Chargers this week, but whether he’ll be at
a hundred percent is a fair question. The Dolphins may find themselves
in more negative than positive game script in L.A., but how much
the rookie will be worked in remains to be seen. The Chargers
allowed the 6th fewest receiving yards and 5th fewest receptions
to running backs last season. The fact that the Chargers defense
can be very stiff against receiving running backs makes Achane
an iffy play.
The Dolphins gave up 100 receptions and 10 touchdowns to tight
ends last year, and they didn’t particularly address that issue
in free agency or the draft. Unless someone steps up in-house,
Everett could have a lot of opportunities to hurt their defense
this week. With the Dolphins bolstering a secondary that was tougher
than average on wideouts and – even with Ramsey not ready to suit
up - could be tougher with 2nd round rookie Cam Smith also added,
Justin Herbert may be inclined to attack the Dolphins weakness.
Herbert calling Everett’s number more than usual is worth banking
on, particularly in a game where the Chargers are favored and
Herbert may want to avoid forcing throws towards Xavien Howard.
With Ramsey on the IR, it might seem like a great spot for Mike
Williams. Yet, undrafted rookie Kader Kohou held his salt last
year, allowing just an 81 rating to opposing QB’s. Williams did
have a strong showing against the Dolphins last year, amassing
116 yards and a score on 6 targets. But with potential help added
in Cam Smith – a 6’ tall corner – the streaky Williams may be
no more than a coin flip to have a productive day.
Johnston is likely to have his days, but may not be one of them.
He is likely to see limited snaps early in the season as many
beat reporters have noted that Josh Palmer has been running ahead
of him in practice. Plus, the Dolphins have the secondary talent
to keep up with his raw, unpolished game.
Matthew Stafford is a unique quarterback in that he’s managed
to find a fair amount of success in his career despite particularly
latching onto one target. Calvin Johnson was great, and so is
Cooper Kupp, but that is not the sole reason either receiver was
an epic target monster with Stafford. Flashback to 2014, when
an injury to Calvin Johnson saw Golden Tate suddenly raking 10+
targets a week (and 144 on the year). It’s apparent that Stafford,
when in doubt, has one man on his mind. Van Jefferson is not Golden
Tate, but as the next man up he is capable enough (15.0 yards
per catch and 8.5 yards per target, to-date) to turn a ton of
targets into a decent day. He’ll have his work cut out for him
against an improving Seattle defense (reuniting with Bobby Wagner,
selecting CB Witherspoon in the 1st round, and Dre’Mont Jones
strengthening the pass rush), but who else does Stafford have
– or want – to turn to in a game where it is likely going to be
negative game script all day long.
Cam Akers had a disastrous return from an ACL tear salvaged somewhat
by a great finish – going over 100 yards rushing in each
of his final three games last season. The good news is that one
of those games was against the Seahawks. The bad news is that
the Rams have practically emptied their roster of plus talent,
and the Seahawks are reasonably improved on defense. Without Kupp,
the odds of this being a lopsided game where Akers lacks opportunities
to produce – having yet to surpass 13 receptions in a season
– is substantial.
The Seahawks were torched by TE’s last season, making their average
opponent look nearly as good as Travis Kelce. With nearly 1300
yards and 11 touchdowns allowed, Cooper Kupp out and the Seahawks
likely being well ahead for much of this game, it might seem like
Higbee is a great play. But Bobby Wagner is back in Seattle, and
his previous team – the Rams – were tough on TE’s while Wagner
was in Los Angeles. Expect that to be the case in Seattle this
year. To top it off, Higbee’s receiving average has fallen under
10 in both seasons since Stafford’s arrival (and just 8.6 last
season), without a boost in touchdowns – a steady average of 4
touchdowns over the last four seasons. How much Stafford has left
in the tank is anyone’s guess, and that could put Higbee’s production
in even more peril.
Geno Smith is coming off an incredible comeback story – finishing
as the QB5, after last being a regular starter in 2014. He’ll
get to springboard off of that success by facing a gutted Rams
roster sans the likes of Jalen Ramsey, Bobby Wagner, Leonard Floyd
and just about any impact starter not named Aaron Donald. Outside
of safety Jordan Fuller, the Rams other three starters in the
secondary have a combined seven career starts. This may not be
a long day for Smith, but it should be a field day.
The Rams don’t appear to have the secondary to keep up with
Seattle’s passing game, but Geno Smith may not need that
many attempts to put away the Rams. That doesn’t leave Smith-Njigba
with a lot of time to fill the stat sheet, especially when playing
behind Metcalf and Lockett (258 combined targets in 2022). He
may also cede a significant amount of time to Pete Carroll’s
Tight-End-Go-Round, especially in a match up that should feature
a lot of positive game script. Fant, Dissly and Parkinson all
played at least 398 snaps last season and each finished among
the top 45 tight ends in targets. How many targets will be left
Smith-Njigba is hard to say. He may have to break off a long touchdown
to salvage his fantasy day.
Tight end Dallas Goedert was targeted 31 times over his final
five games, leading to 25 catches for 232 yards. He was also one
of the team’s top producers during their playoff run in 2022,
catching 16 of the 18 targets that came his way for 141 yards
and a touchdown. Meanwhile, the Patriots were bottom-12 in defending
against opposing tight ends in 2022, giving up 11 touchdowns to
the position on the year, which tied for the second-most in the
league. Much of that tight end production came against high-end
players at the position, including touchdowns conceded to Pat
Freiermuth, T.J. Hockenson, Darren Waller and two scores to Mark
Andrews. The tight end position is looking shakier by the minute,
with Travis Kelce dealing with a knee injury, which only serves
to make reliable players like Goedert even stronger for fantasy
purposes this week and going forward.
D’Andre Swift was one of the most frustrating and disappointing
fantasy players from the 2022 season, which has caused many to
sour on him heading into 2023. A first-round pick in many leagues
in 2022, Swift was more of a mid-round player this year despite
now being in Philadelphia as part of the league’s most efficient
overall rushing offense from 2022. Swift’s less-than-workhorse
usage could still lead to plenty of fantasy production in this
high-powered offense. The Eagles led the league in success rate
on runs even if you remove quarterback Jalen Hurts.
The most physically talented player in the current Philadelphia
backfield, Swift could still come off the field some on passing
downs in favor of veteran Kenneth Gainwell and even running downs
in favor of Rashaad Penny. Swift has averaged an impressive 5.5
yards per attempt over his three-year career, but injuries have
really hampered his ability to produce like an elite fantasy option.
Swift would be considered a “favorite” against most
defenses, but unfortunately, he’s matched up against an
excellent Patriots run defense that held opposing running backs
to just three rushing scores throughout the entire 2022 season.
They did, however, struggle to contain opposing backs in the passing
game, conceding nearly 40 receiving yards per game to the position
during the regular season. We should see Swift on the field plenty
early in the year, so fantasy managers might as well ride this
train until the wheels come off.
Penny could end up being the best option in this backfield in
the long run, but indications are that Swift will be given the
first opportunity to be the lead back in this high-powered Philadelphia
offense. Penny has been a highly productive runner throughout
his career and actually provides the best EPA per rush in the
backfield, but he’s been one of the most injury-prone players
in the league since being drafted back in 2018. Penny has also
been rarely utilized as a pass catcher, meaning that he’s
the most likely player on the team to come off the field on passing
downs. The Eagles do target their backs at among the lowest percentage
of any team in the league so that’s not necessarily a death
blow to his fantasy production, but it does mean that he’s
someone we need to see it on the field before we trust that he’s
going to see enough work to be a weekly fantasy contributor given
the committee approach that the Eagles are likely to utilize.
Stevenson accounted for just shy of 50 percent of the Patriots’
rush attempts in 2022 and it was looking like he might end up
being one of the most-utilized backs in the league this season
before the Patriots decided to sign veteran Ezekiel Elliott late
in the pre-season. Elliott was extremely unimpressive as a runner
this past season which played a part in the Cowboys not re-signing
him, but he does remain an excellent goal-line producer and a
very strong pass protector, which could end up leading to some
frustrations for fantasy managers who are starting Stevenson.
Still, with the Patriots lacking serious outside pass-catching
weapons, there’s a good chance that they will continue to
rely heavily on Stevenson both as a runner and a receiver early
in the year. He has shown the ability to shoulder a heavy workload
in the past and there’s no reason to believe that Elliott
will approach an equal split in the backfield.
The Eagles defense is a tough one, but this is a player who should
see enough volume to remain relevant in almost any matchup.
It’s tough to paint a positive picture about JuJu Smith-Schuster
going from being Patrick Mahomes’ top wide receiver to Mac Jones’
top wide receiver, but he may still be being overlooked by fantasy
managers this season. JuJu actually led his Super Bowl-winning
team in the big game with seven receptions against this very same
Eagles defense so there’s at least some history of him being able
to get open against them.
One positive thing to consider is that while Mahomes was typically
looking for tight end Travis Kelce in the short-to-intermediate
areas of the field, Smith-Schuster’s strong skills in that
section could actually end up being utilized more often in New
England as Mac Jones tends to target that area heavily and the
team is not full of playmakers who can command targets.
No one in the New England passing game is a must-start by any
means, but if you’re looking for someone who could provide
some WR2 numbers to start the year, JuJu is worth taking a chance
on.
One of the biggest “touchdown-or-bust” players from
the 2022 season, Elliott has now moved from one of the most explosive
offenses in Dallas to one of the least explosive in New England.
While Elliott himself can still be an effective runner, particularly
near the goal line, being the RB2 in this New England offense
is almost certainly going to limit his goal-line touches.
The Eagles’ defense looks like one of the most ferocious
in the league so it’s tough to be too excited about playing
anyone against them, let alone a veteran backup running back who
showed serious signs of decline. Nevertheless, if you’re
forced to start Elliott and looking for a bit of hope, it’s
worth noting that Elliott did score in each of his two games against
this Eagles defense last season. Still, he’s a player who
we should probably wait to see usage on before we’re willing
to throw him in our lineups against good defenses.
Rookie tight ends don’t typically move the needle for fantasy
owners, but Musgrave has a chance to be different. He was regularly
targeted during the preseason, and there were a lot of glowing
reports emanating from camp about his talent and ability to stretch
the field. Week 1 always means loads of unscouted looks, and with
Green Bay’s top-two wideouts battling hamstring injuries, the
Packers might need to rely on the likes of Musgrave and fellow
rookie Jayden Reed. We’re talking a risky flier, but the path
to value is there.
All eyes will be on Love in this one. After spending three years
learning behind Aaron Rodgers, the former first-round pick gets
his chance. The team seems to believe they have something. Fans
and pundits are split. It’ll take time to render a verdict, but
Love will create his first impression, positive or negative, this
Sunday. He’s looked cool and composed in the preseason. Can he
carry it forward? We’ll see. If Love is without both Watson and
Romeo Doubs (hamstring), that undercuts his potential and makes
him less likely to deliver decent value. If one or both are in
uniform, and you’re feeling adventurous, you could pull the trigger
on Love in a plus matchup.
The first question with Doubs is whether he’ll even suit
up; he’s been dealing with a hamstring issue since right
before their final preseason game. And the follow-up to that is,
if he does play, will he play on a “pitch count”?
The second scenario is the more dangerous for fantasy owners,
and while there are several reasons to be bullish on Doubs over
the 2023 campaign, this is a week to hold him out, even if he
does recover enough to make the start.
With Fields commanding a lot of attention, Chicago’s backfield
is more dangerous as a group than individuals. And therein lies
the problem with Herbert. We have no idea how the Bears play to
divvy up touches between the third-year pro and newcomers D’Onta
Foreman and rookie Roschon Johnson. Offensive coordinator Luke
Getsy is a product of the Matt LaFleur coaching tree, and he has
always used multiple backs. Until we know how Chicago views their
backs in terms of usage, Herbert is no better than a flex.
There’s been no shortage of hype/hope that Fields will take a
big step in Year 3, but until we see it in the regular season,
it should be taken with a grain of salt. With D.J. Moore stepping
into the WR1 role, holdovers Mooney and Claypool will be battling
with Cole Kmet for attention. Mooney was struggling last year
before he got hurt, and Claypool was a nonfactor after being acquired
from Pittsburgh. Maybe Fields develops into a dangerous passer.
Maybe not. Just know your best bet is to keep any receiver not
named Moore on your bench until further notice.
Nobody is benching Tony Pollard in seasonal leagues, so certainly
he could be considered a “no-brainer,” but I wanted
to make sure to explain that Pollard needs to be started across
the board and even strongly considered as a DFS option here in
Week 1.
We’ve been waiting for this for years now - a Cowboys backfield
without Ezekiel Elliott and lacking any other true spoiler for
Pollard’s usage - and suddenly some fantasy managers are
having cold feet about one of the league’s most explosive
running backs. I simply don’t get it.
Pollard and Elliott absolutely crushed this Giants defense in
2022, combining for a ridiculous 330 rushing yards in their two
contests. Even while being the backup, Pollard has had at least
60 rushing yards in four straight games against the Giants, making
him an extraordinarily safe option while still providing strong
potential for a truly monster game. The Cowboys could end up being
more run-heavy this season and with a much stronger share of the
backfield work, that makes Pollard a must-start.
The Cowboys tight end position remains a bit of a mystery and
could very well end up being a gross committee in which we don’t
want to roster any of them, but Ferguson has seemingly secured
the role as the team’s top tight end heading into 2023.
Ferguson had 70 yards receiving in his two games against the Giants
in 2022 while playing in a committee as a rookie. He’s not
a particularly great athlete and he’s likely never going
to ascend to the level of being a strong weekly TE1, but the position
as a whole is very banged up to start the season and those rostering
Travis Kelce could find themselves looking for a plug-and-play
option to add off of waivers. Ferguson looks like a decent bet
here in Week 1.
Cooks may just be exactly the type of player the Cowboys have
been looking for - a down-field option who can stretch the defense
and provide a threat that defenses have to account. However, from
a fantasy standpoint, it’s unlikely that Cooks will see
a strong enough target share to make him a good fantasy option
as long as CeeDee Lamb is healthy.
We don’t exactly know what this Cowboys offense is going to look
like now that former offensive coordinator Kellen Moore is gone
and there’ve been rumors that the team is looking to be more run-heavy
from what we’ve seen in recent seasons. That could bode well for
keeping the pressure off of Dak Prescott, but less volume in a
more crowded offense makes Cooks a risky play to start the season.
We’ve all heard the narratives out of New York that Waller looks
to not only be reenergizing his career but that he has become
the clear top target for quarterback Daniel Jones. Certainly,
we need to see it on the field before we start projecting him
to get back to his ranking as an elite fantasy producer, but the
lack of other high-end pass-catching weapons in this offense certainly
makes it believable that Waller could be one of the true difference-makers
at an ugly tight end position.
The Cowboys were excellent against opposing tight ends this past
season so this isn’t a great matchup, but Waller is healthy
and should see heavy usage, particularly near the end zone, as
long as he’s on the field. With Kelce potentially out or
very limited, Waller is a strong candidate to lead all tight ends
in fantasy points here in Week 1.
Jones broke out in 2022 largely due to his rushing ability and
the Giants seemed to recognize that he needed more pass-catching
weapons if they ever truly wanted to see him become a complete
quarterback. To their credit, they made moves to bring in more
options for him, including a dynamic tight end in Darren Waller
who has reportedly been the star of training camp.
The Giants will almost certainly remain a very balanced offense
as long as Saquon Barkley is on the field, but there’s some
real potential here for increased passing game efficiency. The
Giants lost both games to the Cowboys in 2022 and Jones failed
to throw for 230 yards in either contest, so there’s certainly
some risk in starting him here in Week 1, but Barkley rushed for
just 130 total yards in the two games against Dallas, so it would
make sense that the Giants will look to air the ball out more
in order to keep pace on the scoreboard.
Fade: All Giants WRs
While we have to like tight end Darren Waller and even quarterback
Daniel Jones to an extent, one place where fantasy managers need
to take a “wait and see” approach is their wide receiver group.
The Giants have listed Darius
Slayton, Isaiah
Hodgins, and Parris
Campbell as their starters, but other receivers like Wan’Dale
Robinson (knee), Sterling
Shepard, and even rookie Jalin
Hyatt have made their cases for playing time.
This has all the signs of a wide receiver by committee situation,
with no player ever establishing himself as a true must-start.
That could be fine for the offense as a whole but it’s an
absolute no-go for fantasy purposes until we get a better picture
of the snap and target breakdown coming out of a real game.
Diggs is normally a no-brainer and still is in seasonal formats,
but his DFS outlook is a little shakier than normal here in Week
1. Diggs will likely be matched up often with Sauce Gardner, one
of the NFL’s top defensive backs. Gardner was a thorn in
the side of practically every receiver he played against in 2022,
and Diggs struggled in his two opportunities against the Jets
this past season, catching just eight passes for 130 yards and
no touchdowns.
Still, Diggs is a target hog in one of the league’s best offenses
and there’s a much better chance that this game turns into a shootout
between Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers than what we saw in 2022
when the Jets were rolling out Mike White and Zach Wilson at quarterback.
One of the darlings of late-summer fantasy drafts, James Cook
shot up fantasy draft boards when it became apparent that the
Bills were not going to sign a big-name veteran back to compete
with him for touches. The Bills moved on from 2022 starter Devin
Singletary and only brought in Damien Harris and Latavius Murray,
so now Cook looks like the clear starter heading into the season.
We can’t be completely sure that he’s going to get the lion’s
share of the rushing work, but Cook should be a lock to lead the
team in passing down snaps which should help him provide a decent
floor to go along with his upside.
Unfortunately, while we want to project huge things for an all-purpose-skillset
back like Cook, the reality is that the Bills have historically
been one of the least fantasy-friendly offenses for running backs
while Josh Allen has been on the roster. In fact, in the two games
they played against the Jets in 2022, the Bills running backs
carried the ball just 25 total times. Even if Cook does see 60
percent or more of the carries, that could still end up being
around eight to 12 carries along with only a few targets in the
passing game at most. Add in the fact that Josh Allen is a goal-line
rushing touchdown specialist and it’s tough to make a case
for Cook being someone who fantasy managers can actually rely
on here in Week 1. Still, given the lack of options at the position
as a whole, Cook will likely be a low-end RB2/Flex option in most
leagues.
Gabe Davis was one of the biggest risers during the 2022 fantasy
draft season, but there’s no doubt that he was a huge disappointment
for those who took a chance on him in the early rounds despite
the fact that he had by far his most productive fantasy season.
While his price has dropped significantly, his overall fantasy
outlook appears to be less enticing overall as well. Rookie TE
Dalton Kincaid will be making his debut and could become a key
target in the red zone, thus limiting Davis’ potential touchdown
upside. Not only that but there’s almost no way that Davis ever
overtakes Stefon Diggs as the team’s most highly-targeted outside
option.
Davis does bring the type of explosiveness that makes him an
ideal option for best ball formats, but he caught just five passes
for 64 yards and no touchdowns in the two games he played against
the Jets in 2022. The lack of volume makes him an extremely volatile
WR3/Flex here in Week 1 and not someone who fantasy managers should
be excited about dropping into their lineup.
The Jets backfield has been one of the most difficult to predict
heading into the season, as 2022 rookie Breece Hall looked every
bit the elite talent that he was forecasted to be before suffering
a season-ending knee injury early in the year. While he’s had
nearly a year to get back on the field, ACL injuries can cause
players to struggle even after they return to the field. The Jets
recognized this and added veteran Dalvin Cook late in the offseason,
paying him relatively big money in a move that seems to indicate
that they’re not quite comfortable with where Hall is at.
Cook was not good as a runner in 2022, but he was also playing
behind a bad Minnesota offensive line. The situation in New York
projects to be better and new quarterback Aaron Rodgers reportedly
played a big factor in getting Cook on the roster, so there’s
a good chance that he’ll play heavily here in Week 1 while
the team ramps up Hall’s usage.
Look for Cook to lead the backfield in snaps this week, making
him a decent low-end RB2/Flex option.
While the Jets brought in some former Aaron Rodgers teammates
in Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb to fill out the depth chart,
one player who seems to be being forgotten is tight end Tyler
Conklin. Conklin himself is not a special talent or a player who
is likely ever going to become an every-week fantasy contributor,
but he’s not facing much competition in the pass-catching role
at his position and Rodgers has a history of targeting his tight
ends heavily in the end zone. Of course, he’s facing a Bills defense
that was exceptional at containing opposing tight ends a season
ago, but this is a team that’s seriously lacking in quality pass-catching
weapons despite the desire to lean heavily on Rodgers early in
the year. Conklin is more of a TE2 in seasonal leagues, but he’s
a decent cheap DFS option who could score.
As mentioned above, this backfield is almost certainly going
to be a committee to start the season and reports seem to indicate
that Hall will be “eased into” the offense while the
team leans on Cook to start the season.
This is no criticism as Hall as a talent as he might be one of
the most physically gifted backs in the league even after his
knee injury, but the Jets scored just 32 points in two games against
the Bills in 2022 and while having Aaron Rodgers means a quarterback
upgrade and a much higher ceiling, this is still an offense that
needs time to gel before we get excited about a matchup against
a good Buffalo defense.
You might not have better options given the landscape of the
position as a whole, but you’ll probably be happy if you
take a wait-and-see approach on Hall before you put him in your
starting lineup.
