“Return to the mean” describes a statistical phenomenon where extreme values in a dataset tend to be followed by values closer to the average. Translation – after an outlier of a value (either high or low), the next result tends to be less extreme and closer to the overall average.

For fantasy football, it describes a player who posts a number far from his normal season and expects him to play closer to his average in the next “measurement” a.k.a. next season. So I’ve decided to look at those running backs who fell short of their goal in 2024. In this case, after such a poor season, they might be available at a “bargain.”

There were 17 such running backs among the top-50 in 2024, who produced fewer points-per-game, than in 2023. Some, by mere tenths-of-a-point, while others by much larger margins. It’s the bigger disappointments, those who fell by more than two fantasy points-per-game, who might be greatly devalued at your 2025 draft.

Let’s evaluate them to see if they can bounce back in 2025.

Kyren Williams, LA Rams (-4.0) – It wasn’t for lack of opportunity. Kyren Williams’ touches rose from 260 in 2023 to 350 last season. His touchdowns stayed consistent – 15 in 2023 and 16 last season. The culprit was his yards-per-rush which fell from 5.0 to 4.1 per attempt. Blake Corum was supposed to steal some work from Williams, but injury limited him. Williams again should be a workhorse, perhaps not at the same level which might keep him fresher and more efficient. Current projections have him around the 10th or 11th running back off the board, but he could return to the efficient running back who ranked No.2 in 2023 at 21.4 FPts/G behind only Christian McCaffrey.

Rachaad White, Tampa Bay (-2.3) – White was a nice surprise in 2023, averaging 16.0 FPts/G, but the surprise was on us in 2024 as he fell behind Bucky Irving on the depth chart. His rushing attempts were almost halved (272 to 144) and his fantasy totals became too touchdown dependent. He averaged 18.7 in seven games with a touchdown and just 8.7 when he didn’t reach the end zone. In his second season I expect Irving to see even more of the workload and I don’t have White as a candidate to return to his previous production level.

Christian McCaffrey, San Francisco (-12.2) – Likely the most important running back decision for 2025 is how to evaluate Christian McCaffrey. The best running back in the league when healthy, who has too many battles with the injury list, and not enough with other opponents. Worse yet, fantasy owners were kept in the dark all preseason and right up until Week 1 – too late for those who drafted him like the elite player he can be when healthy. It’s too early to tell and I’ll reserve the right to watch how he progresses this summer before drafting as high as necessary to roster him. He’s currently going around No.5 behind Saquon Barkley, Bijan Robinson, Jahmyr Gibbs and Derrick Henry. That’s pretty scary off a four-game 2024 season.

Austin Ekeler, Washington (-2.8) – Ekeler has already been drastically downgraded from his days of running wild with the Chargers, but he continues to produce less and less. Brian Robinson Jr. is the starter and that won’t change. Robinson isn’t much of a receiver and that’s where Ekeler shines. That should continue in 2025. Second-year QB Jaylen Daniels’ ability to run also limits his desperately throwing to a safety valve like Ekeler. I don’t see a scheme where Ekeler becomes a workhorse and greatly improves his fantasy value.

Jerome Ford, Cleveland (-2.8) – Ford and current free agent Nick Chubb shared the workload in 2024 after Ford had been the guy in 2023 following an early season-ending injury to Chubb. Chubb is gone, but not the competition for carries. The Browns selected Quinshon Judkins (Ohio State) with the 36th overall pick in April and with that comes the expectation of usage. If Judkins handles the blocking and ball security portion of the game, he should eventually replace Ford (on the final year of his rookie contract) as the top guy because of his explosiveness and athleticism.

Travis Etienne, Jacksonville (-7.6) – Etienne looked like a star of the future after a 2023 in which he averaged 16.4 FPts/G. Things completely fell apart last year. His rushing yards nearly halved (1,008 to 558) and he couldn’t find the end zone even with a map. He scored just twice in 2024 after reaching the end zone 12 times the previous year. Tank Bigsby rushed for more yards on more attempts and scored seven times to the dismay of Etienne’s fantasy owners. Even worse news is that the Jaguars may have already drafted his replacement – Virginia Tech speedster Bhayshul Tuten (4.3 in the 40). If Etienne doesn’t get off to a good start, he might find his playing time severely cut… bad news when you are in the final year of your contract.

Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh (-3.4) – Just when Warren thought he could get out from under the shadow of Najee Harris, the Steelers selected Iowa running back Kaleb Johnson in the third round. He was a workhorse for the Hawkeyes, rushing 240 times for 1,537 yards and 21 touchdowns. They also signed free agent Kenneth Gainwell from the Eagles. Warren should still be the starter, but Johnson could steal carries and Gainwell targets leaving it a tough path for fourth-year back to greatly increase his productivity.

Nick Chubb, formerly of Cleveland, free agent (-3.4) – Until we see where he signs and what kind of opportunity he has for work, this is TBD.

Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City (-7.3) – Pacheco fractured his fibula in Week 2 and didn’t return until Week 13. When he did get back in uniform he wasn’t the same guy. His rushing average went from 4.6 ypc to 3.7. That may also have been partially caused by poor offensive line play as backup Kareem Hunt also averaged just 3.6 ypc. If we get the hard-hitting Pacheco style that we saw in 2023, he could “return to the mean” which would be a nice gift as he’s going off the board around 27th among running backs.

Raheem Mostert, Las Vegas (-11.8) – There wasn’t a person anywhere who didn’t predict a big fall in production for Mostert off his 21-touchdown 2023 season. But he fell way further than expected due to injuries and the continued emergence of De’Von Achane. Now in Nevada, he’ll backup for exciting rookie Ashton Jeanty. Despite not having run a single down in the NFL, Jeanty is being picked at the bottom of the top-10 of running backs. Mostert should basically be an insurance policy for the Raiders and barring injury to the starter, should not see enough of a workload to be fantasy-worthy.