The trade deadline in many leagues is still about a month away,
but fantasy managers should use this time to identify some of the
players who may not be valued the way they should be right now.
This week, I will highlight six players (quarterbacks and running
backs) who I believe are not being valued correctly. After I discuss
my stance on the player and some of the numbers that support my
stance, I will use the last paragraph to give readers an idea
of who and/or what they should expect in return.
Because quarterbacks are typically very hard to trade for or
trade away in one-quarterback leagues because managers tend to
believe they can find similar production on the waiver wire, I
will only discuss two "trade for" quarterbacks. At running
back, I will discuss four players I would recommend pursuing.
This recommendation is more circumstantial than anything else.
There is a decent chance that the Jackson manager is closer to
the basement in your league than at the top of the standings.
That may especially be the case if Jackson has to sit again in
Week 8, which would suggest that he suffered more of a Grade 2
hamstring strain than a Grade 1. Either way, it seems likely he
will be back no later than Week 9.
The whole point of leading off with him is this: take advantage
of the uncertainty (and potential desperation) while you still
can. Yes, it might be difficult to pry Jackson away from his manager
at this point given he has been without him for three full weeks,
but most managers sitting at 1-6 or 2-5 cannot rely on the hope
that he will be back, especially if you can send him/her a trade
offer that helps him/her win this week. The beautiful thing about
acquiring Jackson (assuming you can) is that the Ravens have little
choice but to put the pedal to the medal once he returns if they
hope to make a playoff run.
Each league is obviously different, and I may not be the greatest
person to advise on this particular subject since I drafted so
much Jackson this summer. (Yes, you can thank me for his injury
and your current predicament if you drafted him as well.) The
only real offer I have received for Jackson during his absence
is for Quinshon Judkins, which is probably a good barometer for
where talks should begin. It is easy to forget that Jackson was
easily the QB1 through three weeks - a full three points per game
higher than Josh Allen and Caleb Williams. Much like Christian McCaffrey at running back, Jackson is the ultimate cheat code,
so he is worth paying up for anytime his value is lower than normal.
Especially at quarterback, it is never a bad idea to do a price
check on a player who the public or media seems to be bashing
that particular week. Or maybe a player who failed to live up
to the hype. Williams is coming off a down Week 7 - his first
game of the season without a passing or rushing touchdown. In
fact, it was only the second time all season he had failed to
account for at least two scores. His completion percentage has
fallen short of 60 percent in three straight games as well. After
rushing for 85 yards on 11 carries in his first two games, Williams
has mustered 21 yards on as many rush attempts over his last four.
Needless to say, it has been frustrating to watch last year's
No. 1 overall pick generate such enthusiasm in his first three
games only to regress statistically under the watchful eye of
HC Ben Johnson. However, there have been some positive developments
recently that bode well for his success over the rest of the season.
First and foremost, Chicago has run the ball with much more success
since its Week 5 bye than it did at any point before or even during
Williams' rookie season. While the team's rushing success may
lead to a down game for him from time to time, it will slow down
the rush and make his job easier as a whole.
Perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Williams is the upcoming
schedule. With his supporting cast (most notably, Rome
Odunze, D.J.
Moore, Olamide
Zaccheaus, Luther
Burden III and Colston
Loveland), it is reasonable to believe he will bounce back
in a big way against the Ravens (Week 8), Bengals (Week 9) and
Giants (Week 10). Each of those three defenses ranks inside the
top quarter of the league in terms of being the most accommodating
to quarterbacks. Regarding Chicago's upcoming games against Baltimore
and Cincinnati, both of those games should be high-scoring. For
the first time since they embarked on their current four-game
winning streak, the Bears may need to throw to keep up (or stay
ahead). Maybe Williams proves to be nothing more than a matchup
quarterback in 2025, but I would argue that he is worth acquiring
now because he could easily be a sell-high candidate soon - if
he can simply take advantage of his schedule over the next three
weeks.
While none of these is an easy call per se, I would rather roll
with Williams (QB14 in fantasy points per game) over players ranked
around him, such as Bo
Nix (QB11), Jayden
Daniels (QB12) or Jared
Goff (QB15). Especially in the case of Daniels, however, use
good sense. In no way am I suggesting you should trade Daniels
for Williams straight up. All I am suggesting in this case is
that I wonder if we will see Daniels healthy again at any point
this season.
In most competitive leagues (and definitely in high-stakes leagues),
managers must be able to embrace a certain amount of uncertainty
when completing trades. Does anyone want Barkley's combined 13.9
PPR fantasy points over the last two weeks combined in their starting
lineup? Probably not. Is there a chance the 3.3 yards per carry
and sub-100 total-yard games with little chance of multiple-touchdown
upside continues for the remainder of the season? Absolutely.
While it would be convenient to suggest Barkley is suffering
from the "Madden Curse" or the "Curse of 370,"
explanations for football players taking a turn for the worse
- especially those performing so far below their career norms
- are usually much more nuanced than that. Barkley may not be
as explosive as he was last season (and the advanced analytics
would seem to support that), but a much bigger problem has been
the health of the offensive line (which I will get into shortly).
We need not look any further than the difference between Barkley's
yards before contact per attempt from 2024 (3.8) and 2025 (1.8)
to see why I feel confident in saying that.
Brett Toth, who has bounced back and forth between the practice
squad and the active roster for most of the last two seasons,
is likely the starting center for now after Cam Jurgens (knee)
was injured in Week 7. LG Landon Dickerson (ankle, back) has been
hurting for most of the season. RG Tyler Steen, who was the expected
starter at right guard last season before Mekhi Becton took the
job from him, is performing slightly below league-average as a
blocker. RT Lane Johnson has been dealing with injuries for most
of the season.
So why trade for a player stuck behind this M*A*S*H unit on an
offensive line? First and foremost, the Week 9 bye is coming at
a good time for the Eagles. Perhaps just as importantly, I have
a hard time looking at Philadelphia's schedule beginning around
Week 12 and believing the Eagles' running game fails to get going
against the likes of the Cowboys, Bears, Chargers, Raiders, Commanders
and Bills. I also have to believe the best offensive line coach
in the game (Jeff Stoutland) will be able to get more out of his
pupils as the season progresses. Truth be told, I am betting on
the healing powers of the bye week to help this recommendation
come true.
You will likely have to pay a bit more for Barkley given his
recent history, but I could easily envision a scenario in which
his current manager would be happy to unload him for Travis
Etienne, a low-end WR2 or maybe even Jacory
Croskey-Merritt. I refuse to believe Barkley will end the
season with 250 carries for 800 yards and 7-8 rushing touchdowns.
As bad as things got for him with the Giants, he never performed
that poorly over a full (healthy) season in New York. Last but
not least, Barkley is not losing his job. Finding three-down backs
with a locked-in workload is not an easy thing to do. Maybe RB2
is his ceiling this year. Well, I suppose it is a good thing you
are not selling the farm to get him, right?
If you thought the "yuck" factor was strong with Barkley,
allow me to introduce you to Brown. The offensive line is guaranteed
to be bad, the all-world quarterback is likely out another two
months and the Bengals are much more of a pass-happy team. Heck,
Brown is losing work to Samaje Perine! Why is Brown someone you
should target then?
This recommendation boils down to what you have available to
you at RB2 each week. If you are rolling with Javonte
Williams or James
Cook or Quinshon Judkins behind Jonathan
Taylor or Christian
McCaffrey, you can probably skip the rest of this article.
I could argue that you can stop reading if Rico
Dowdle or J.K.
Dobbins is your RB2. Most fantasy managers are not that fortunate.
There are plenty of managers who are stuck with Kenneth
Walker, Isiah
Pacheco, David
Montgomery, Tony
Pollard or maybe even R.J. Harvey as their RB2. I am speaking
to those people.
Unlike Barkley, Brown's current managers cannot justify asking
for a lot in return for him. Yes, he is coming off a 100-yard
rushing game. That's great, until you consider his 12-point performance
in PPR leagues was the second-best mark of the season for him.
Each of the running backs I mentioned at the end of the last paragraph
is stuck in a committee - some in high-end offenses and some not.
I would argue that some of them might see more work moving forward
than Brown (Walker and Pacheco), but neither one of those players
appears to be getting the high-value touches (third-down and goal-line)
in their offenses. Cincinnati has not exactly given its running
backs a ton of scoring chances, but there is little question in
my mind that those opportunities will be coming soon. When they
do, Brown should be getting them. The trade for Joe
Flacco has reenergized the passing attack, which will undoubtedly
trickle down to the running game as defenses begin to devote more
attention to Ja'Marr
Chase and Tee
Higgins again.
As it usually does with me, the matchups are what intrigued me
the most when discussing Brown's rest-of-season outlook. I don't
think there is any chance managers are going to get second-round
value from him without Joe Burrow around, but I see only one matchup
(New England in Week 12) that I think is an absolute buzzkill
for Brown. From Weeks 13-16, the Bengals play every game against
a defense ranked among the top six most favorable matchups for
running backs. It is not all that bad leading up to Week 12 either,
as the Jets (Week 8) are unlikely to mount enough offense to keep
the Bengals from running as often as they want to in the second
half. The Bears (Week 9) rank eighth among the most favorable
matchups for running backs, while Brown just ran for 108 yards
on the Steelers (Week 11) last week.
Depending on where my team is in the standings, I don't mind
taking chances on injured players in trades. Irving (foot, shoulder)
has already been ruled out for this week and the Bucs are off
next week, which means his current managers - many of whom are
likely struggling to stay above .500 without their RB1 - are desperate
for a win.
It would be a waste of time for me to go in-depth about how impactful
Irving was when he was healthy, so allow me to sum it up like
this: Irving has missed three full games already and is still
the RB29. Over the first four weeks of the season, he was the
RB8. During that same time, Irving handled 75 percent of the backfield
rush attempts and commanded 68 percent of the backfield targets.
Tampa Bay running backs only scored two touchdowns over that span,
but most fantasy managers realize the Bucs are more than capable
of setting their running backs up for multiple scoring opportunities
in just about any game. The extra cherry on top for Irving investors
is a Week 17 date against the Dolphins.
As far as what managers should give up for Irving, it depends
a lot on the desperation of his current manager. J.K. Dobbins
might be acceptable for a manager who does not have Rachaad White
handcuffed to Irving and needs a win. Jaylen Warren might be more
than enough. I pulled off a recent trade in which I sent David Montgomery and A.J. Brown away for James Cook. I think that 2-for-1
deal would be more than enough next week to get Irving.
Which one of these is not like the other? You guessed it. While
I appreciate the small-sample nature of this exercise and the
likelihood of making bad judgments based on it, numerous "hot-hand"
decisions have been made by coaches over the years using much
smaller samples.
Who cares if this little experiment says that Benson is the best
(or most productive) back in Arizona this year? Great question.
While I think there is a real chance that either Emari Demercado
or Carter holds onto some passing-down duties once Benson is ready
to return in Week 10, I don't think that is a lock. (I have a
hard time seeing Demercado escaping the doghouse. Carter may not
be on the active roster if the team goes with Benson-Demercado-Knight
on game day.) I think the most important thing to keep in mind
is that the replacement backs in Arizona have done almost nothing
to warrant bigger roles once Benson returns.
In case you haven't noticed, there is a common theme to the four
running backs I am discussing this week: each one either has a
strong hold on three-down duties in their offense or stands a
very good chance of having those duties once they return. At the
very least, Arizona needs to find out if Benson is going to be
its lead back in 2026. As more time passes, I am less convinced
Demercado replaced Benson on known passing downs in Week 4 so
much as he was giving Benson an occasional rest in aspects of
the game the Cardinals were confident he could handle. I think
it is a long shot that Demercado plays any kind of meaningful
role for the remainder of the season. We already know what Carter
is, and he has repeatedly failed to hold onto even a part-time
role in recent years.
I suppose the best possibility of Benson losing touches upon
his return is if Knight takes some of the work on first and second
down, but I would suggest it is difficult for a player to move
from fifth-string to taking work from the handpicked successor
of Conner in two months. That should be especially true in this
case, as the team has something invested in Benson and Knight
is on his third team in as many seasons. Benson offers explosiveness
that no other back on the roster does, which is important when
we consider that Arizona's offensive line is not one of the better
ones in the NFL. Benson is more than capable as a receiver as
well.
As luck would have it, I am very invested in Benson. The only
trade I considered was one I proposed in which I sent him away
a few days before his injury (and subsequent IR stint). That trade
was Benson and Drake
London for Jaxon
Smith-Njigba and Jauan
Jennings. It is highly unlikely that trade could or would
happen now. As for what I think it would take now, I would gladly
trade Isiah
Pacheco, Rhamondre
Stevenson or Tony Pollard for him if I could. I also prefer
Benson to Chuba
Hubbard and maybe even Jordan
Mason.
Doug Orth has served as an analyst for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points team before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who has not experienced a losing money season in any of his 25 years in this hobby.