My annual draft strategy article is without question my favorite
article to write every year – and I write a lot of articles. I
like to think I’ve been basically on point in this column over
the years (this is my fifth year writing this piece). My favorite
was back in 2018 when I wrote about
Single RB. There were approximately six late-round running
backs that finished as RB1s (or close to it), which was ideal
for Single RB drafters. The best plan for the 2018 season was
to draft one RB early and then load up at the wide receiver position.
In 2020, the best plan is to load up on multiple RBs early and
then fire on WRs in the middle rounds where all the value is.
So today, we will be discussing Robust RB.
Before we get into specifics about how to apply this in 2020,
please note that by no means am I intimating that I created or
am the only one to think of Robust RB. Every year, the primary
strategy I push is an already existing one – it just happens
to be the one I feel is most likely to succeed in the current
year. So let’s get started…
Yes folks, Zero RB is dead
And if I hear one more person say they went “Modified Zero RB”
and then look at their draft and see they took a running back in
the first round, I’m going to pull the nonexistent hair out of my
bald head. If you take a running back in the first two rounds (really
the first four rounds) of your draft, you definitively did not go
Zero RB. There is no variation of Zero RB – it’s an all or nothing
proposition – you either didn’t take an RB early or you did. Okay,
Zero RB rant over.
Leave the third round with at least two running backs
The basic tenet of Robust RB, as you may have guessed, is to load
up early on running backs. This doesn’t mean to literally
draft bench running backs before you draft a single starting WR.
Not at all. This also doesn’t necessarily mean to start your
draft RB-RB-RB. In an ideal world, I would love to start triple
RB, but sometimes the WR value is too good and you may need to take
a WR with one of your first three picks. That’s okay. The
goal should be to leave the third round with at least two running
backs and to have the maximum amount of running backs you can start
(three in your typical league) by the end of the fifth round.
The earlier you can take the running backs, the better. RBs ranked
in the 13-24 range not only emerge as RB1s at a lower rate than
WRs of the same ilk, but they don’t return RB1 value more frequently
than RBs ranked in the 25-36 range (credit to JJ Zachariason for
this data). The most valuable asset in fantasy football is the elite
running back. You put yourself in the best position to end up with
a high end running back by taking them early and late.
There are plenty of wide receivers
Robust RB has as much to do with wide receivers as it does running
backs. There are a couple reasons as to why there are so many good
wide receivers falling in drafts. First, there’s recency bias.
Last season was one of the worst for the position in recent memory,
especially when juxtaposed with the 2018 season. In 2018, Stefon Diggs was the last WR1 at 17.7 FPts/G while in 2019, Kenny Golladay
was the last WR1 at 15.9 FPts/G. That’s a very sizable 1.8
FPts/G difference. You can go all the way down to WR26 before you
find someone averaging 2.0 FPts/G fewer than Golladay in 2019. In
2018, the WR18 averaged 15.7 FPts/G, 2.0 FPts/G fewer than Diggs.
This leads to the second point – the edge gained by having
a WR1 diminished in 2019. Merely having WR1s and high end WR2s doesn’t
help – they need to be difference makers. In 2019, Michael Thomas was the only WR that truly gave fantasy owners an edge. He
was the only receiver to average over 20.0 FPts/G. In 2018, six
WRs broke the 20.0 FPts/G barrier, giving you a sizable edge over
the WR2s.
There’s reason to believe that this trend is here to stay.
In 2010, NFL teams ran 11 personnel (3 WRs) just 39% of the time.
In 2018, NFL teams ran 11 personnel 64% of the time. That number
dipped a bit in 2019, but is still well over 50%, a stark increase
from just a decade ago. The rise in teams running three and four
receiver sets, combined with the increase in pass-to-run ratio,
has resulted in a flatter target distribution. Teams are throwing
more than they used to and due to the increase in number of wide
receivers on the field, quarterbacks aren’t locking in on
one guy as frequently. In 2010, 43 wide receivers hit the 10 FPts/G
threshold. In 2019, that number was 53. There are a handful of WR1s
and then 25 or so WR2s and 20 WR3s. Just try creating WR tiers –
it’s very difficult because it isn’t clear where one
receiver is definitively better than the next by a relevant margin.
To further illustrate the abundance at the position, let’s
look at last year’s WR18, Calvin Ridley, who averaged 15.0
FPts/G. It’s very easy to say he provided a decisive edge
over the WR36, Alshon Jeffery, who averaged 12.2 FPts/G. But there
were 18 wide receivers in between them! Ridley is currently going
in the fourth round while guys like Courtland Sutton, Tyler Boyd,
and Sterling Shepard, who all averaged around 14.0 FPts/G, just
1.0 FPts/G fewer than Ridley, are going in the sixth round or
later. Whenever you’re thinking about taking a wide receiver
early, remember the wide receiver you take a couple rounds later
probably won’t be much worse.
The drop-off at RB is steep
Meanwhile, the running back you take a couple rounds later will
be substantially worse. Last year’s RB12, Mark Ingram, averaged
16.2 FPts/G. The RB24, Damien Williams, averaged 13.0 FPts/G.
If you go down to RB30, just six spots lower, David Montgomery
(insert vomit emoji), averaged 10.9 FPts/G. This is such an important
concept to grasp because the smoother nature of the wide receiver
decline will make them seem more appealing. In a vacuum, they
are.
Example: Your drafts will all likely start the same way - Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, Ezekiel Elliott, Alvin Kamara. After
that, you’re going to feel some trepidation about any running
back you draft. Dalvin Cook has holdout and injury concerns. Clyde Edwards-Helaire is a rookie with an uncertain workload. Derrick Henry is overly reliant on touchdowns and his team is due for
some serious regression in efficiency. Joe Mixon (insert heart
emoji) is on an offense that was terrible in 2019 with a bad offensive
line. Miles Sanders is not guaranteed to see heavy volume and
has a productive backup behind him that could force a committee.
Nick Chubb has a huge Kareem Hunt problem. Kenyan Drake was elite
in a small sample size and his team has no allegiance to him if
he struggles or gets hurt. Austin Ekeler has never been a true
three down back and the team drafted Joshua Kelley. Josh Jacobs
was game scripted out of numerous contests last season and the
Raiders project to be losing a lot. I can go on and on...
While looking at these running backs, you could easily say, “you
know what, I’ll just take Julio Jones, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill” or “DeAndre Hopkins, Chris Godwin, Kenny Golladay.”
It’s pretty fair to say that none of these guys are likely
to fail spectacularly. Sure, they won’t all return value,
but they won’t derail your season.
However, the later into a draft you go, the better the wide receivers
will look when compared to running backs. And therein lies the
problem. At almost every step of the way, you will feel safer
taking the wide receiver. At some point, though, you must take
running backs. So, when is the gap the smallest? Early!
You may not feel great about selecting Chubb or Ekeler over Julio
and Hopkins, but it’s the correct decision. As great as
you’d feel about taking those stud receivers, you’ll
be kicking yourself when you get into the third, fourth, and fifth
rounds when the likes of A.J. Brown, Courtland Sutton, Calvin Ridley, Robert Woods, Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf, D.J. Chark and
T.Y. Hilton are available. If you start out RB-RB-RB, you can have
your pick of two of these guys. If you go WR with one of your
first three picks, you can still take these WRs and hope to hit
on a later RB or start a WR in the flex. But if you go WR early
to the point where you already have three WRs by rounds four or
five, you have to pass on these fine WR choices in rounds 4-6
for sketchy RBs.
Here are your RB choices in rounds four and five: David
Johnson, James
Conner, Jonathan
Taylor, Devin
Singletary, David
Montgomery, D’Andre
Swift. I like Taylor and Swift but they are not without serious
question marks. And those question marks pale in comparison to
the concerns surrounding the other four runners. Remember, the
goal is to win your league. What’s more likely - That DJ has a
career renaissance at age 29 following multiple injuries and switching
teams or talented second and third year wide receivers like Brown,
Sutton, Metcalf, and Chark emerge into league winning WR1s?
Game of probability
We’re always trying to figure out what is most likely to
happen. You give yourself the best chance at succeeding when you
take running backs early. Pound the mid-round wide receivers, and
then circle back to running back with late-round lottery tickets
like Chase Edmonds, Tony Pollard, Boston Scott, etc.
As with any strategy, be ready to adapt. I declared Zero RB dead,
but if you pick at the turn and somehow Michael Thomas and Davante
Adams are both available, maybe you just lock them up and move
forward. The goal is to maximize value and the best way to do
that this season is with Robust RB, but every draft is different
and you can’t be married to one specific strategy if the
room pushes you towards another. Have a plan. Practice your plan.
And, most importantly, practice what to do if your plan goes awry.
Good luck to you all in what may be the wildest and most unpredictable
season in history.
