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Favorites & Fades


Wildcard Weekend 2025

By: Nick Caron | HC Green | John Fessel | Mike Krueger
Updated: 1/9/26

Saturday:

LAR @ CAR | GB @ CHI


Sunday:

BUF @ JAX | SF @ PHI | LAC @ NE


Monday:

HOU @ PIT

Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Injury notes, Lines and Totals updated Sunday morning

Rams @ Panthers - (Fessel)
Line: LAR -10.5
Total: 45.5

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15

No Brainers: WR Puka Nacua

Favorites: WR Davante Adams, RB Kyren Williams

After recently missing time with a hamstring injury, the NFL’s leader in touchdown receptions, Davante Adams, appears poised to return to the Rams lineup just in time for a Wild Card matchup with the 8-win Panthers.

While Carolina has been fairly tough against opposing wide receivers — surrendering just 11 touchdowns to the position — that did not stop Adams from reaching the end zone twice against them earlier this season. With four multi-touchdown games in 2025 and three more in 11 career postseason contests, Adams carries clear WR1 upside this weekend.

Despite some summer speculation surrounding Kyren Williams, the Rams once again leaned on him as their decisive lead back. Even with pressure from an emerging Blake Corum, Williams produced at RB1 levels, finishing the regular season with 1,252 rushing yards, 36 receptions, and 13 total touchdowns.

Williams failed to find the end zone during the season’s final three games, but that drought appears fluky. He still averaged 19 touches per game during that stretch and maintained a snap rate consistent with his season-long average (68%).

There’s little reason to question Williams’ usage as the postseason begins, and he draws a favorable matchup against a Panthers defense that has shown vulnerability against the run. Williams rushed for 72 yards and a score on 13 carries the last time these teams met, and unlike that earlier contest, this game could tilt heavily in the Rams’ favor — an ideal script for Williams to approach his ceiling.

On the Fence: QB Matthew Stafford

The Panthers have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, and much of that damage has not come through the air. Carolina has limited opposing passers to a 20–15 TD/INT ratio on the season.

Stafford himself had one of his worst outings of the year when he faced the Panthers in late November, throwing two interceptions and losing a fumble in a 31–28 defeat. While he’s likely to play cleaner this time around, Carolina being at home and having not allowed a quarterback to reach 20 FPts since Week 8 (Josh Allen) makes Stafford far from a lock — despite his remarkable 46-touchdown season. He’s best viewed as a back-end QB1 this weekend.

Fade: TE Tyler Higbee, TE Colby Parkinson

Veteran safety valve Tyler Higbee returned from injury last week and made an immediate impact, hauling in five catches for 91 yards and a score. His teammate Colby Parkinson also found the end zone twice, even with Higbee back in the lineup.

However, with Davante Adams expected to return and facing a Panthers defense that has allowed just seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends, there may simply be too many mouths to feed. Betting on either Higbee or Parkinson as a TE1 this weekend is risky.

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Tetairoa McMillan

Wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan eclipsed 1,000 receiving yards in his rookie season, and Carolina’s 6'4", 219-pound alpha already looks the part. McMillan has thrived both downfield and in the red zone, averaging 14.5 yards per reception while leading the team with seven touchdown catches.

While he was largely held in check by the Rams in November, McMillan did burn them for a 43-yard touchdown. With five scores in his last seven games and a pair of 100-yard performances on the season, his upside is evident. Quarterback limitations have created some volatility — including a pair of one-catch outings — but the Rams have surrendered the 11th-most fantasy points to the position, and anticipated negative game script works in McMillan’s favor. He profiles as a WR2 with upside on Wild Card Weekend.

On the Fence: RB Rico Dowdle

After a breakout 200-yard performance and a stretch where he averaged 18 FPts/G, Rico Dowdle faded badly down the stretch. Over the final five weeks, he averaged just 7.5 FPts/G while managing only 3.5 yards per touch, delivering RB4-level production.

Now only marginally holding onto the lead role in a committee with Chuba Hubbard — playing 53% of the snaps in Week 18 — Dowdle draws a difficult matchup against a Rams defense that allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points to running backs, including just six rushing touchdowns. He’s a fringe RB3 in this spot.

Fade: QB Bryce Young

Winning a division title — albeit with a significant asterisk as an 8–9 team — may have earned Bryce Young another season as Carolina’s starter, but he has yet to establish himself as a reliable fantasy option through three pro seasons.

Young barely cleared 3,000 passing yards for the first time while averaging just 15.4 FPts/G, nearly identical to last season’s output, despite the addition of McMillan. He did throw three touchdowns against the Rams earlier this year and flashes occasionally, but the floor remains dangerously low. Performances like his 54-yard outing against Seattle in Week 17 highlight the risk. With fewer than 10 FPts in 12 of his 46 career starts, Young should remain out of fantasy lineups this weekend.

Prediction: Rams 31, Panthers 16 ^ Top

Packers @ Bears - (Green)
Line: GB -1.5
Total: 44.5

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

No Brainers: RB Josh Jacobs, WR Christian Watson

Favorites: WR Romeo Doubs

While Green Bay’s Week 16 collapse in Chicago was a team effort, the two players that wore it more than anyone were Keisean Nixon and Doubs. Both have their shot at some redemption this Saturday night. While Doubs’ muffed onside kick opened the door, he had played well to that point, leading the team with a 5-84-1 line that featured Green Bay’s only touchdown. It’s debatable whether he’ll lead the way again this week -- keep in mind that Watson, who has emerged as the team’s WR1, had been hospitalized six days before the Chicago game and was not at full health -- but expect him to get some chances to make plays, and for him to take advantage. No other playoff team gave up more passing TDs than the Bears (32), and they’re third-worst among yards allowed (227.2 per game). There’s decent upside for Doubs as a possible WR3/flex.

On the Fence: QB Jordan Love

Love could also be on the redemption train this week after being knocked from the previous game with a concussion suffered on a helmet-to-helmet hit. He hasn’t played since. A year ago, Love played a half in a meaningless finale and ended up suffering an elbow injury that affected him in a Wild Card round loss to the Eagles. There could be some modest concerns about rust after missing the last two games, but the team clearly felt the opportunity to get healthy far outweighed taking any snaps in Week 18. In his first meeting with the Bears, Love threw for 234 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT. He should have plenty of motivation for the third meeting. Love was exceptional two years ago in the playoffs. If he can avoid turnovers, his ceiling is high.

Fade: WR Jayden Reed

Injuries limited Reed to just seven games in 2025, and that includes a game where he was injured early on as well as Week 18 in Minnesota where he played a few snaps. Despite playing in five full games, he appeared in both Chicago matchups, averaging 47 total yards per game without a touchdown. Reed is as talented as anyone the Packers have at the position, but his numbers have been modest, and he feels like the third-best option this Saturday. Consider Reed useable as no more than a flex.

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: RB D'Andre Swift, TE Colston Loveland

Favorites: WR Luther Burden III

With both Rome Odunze (foot) and DJ Moore (knee) battling injuries, Burden could be the go-to guy on the outside this Saturday. The rookie had 70 yards in Green Bay before missing the rematch with an injury of his own. He had his best game of the season upon returning in Week 17 (8-138-1 against the 49ers), and he has the skill set to be effective with both quick hitters and deep shots. Granted, playoff football can be a different beast, and the Bears are light on experience in that department, but Burden looks like a player on the rise. Against a middling Packers secondary there’s WR3 value with the upside to deliver as a WR2.

On the Fence: QB Caleb Williams

In two games against the Packers this year, Williams was decent, averaging 218 yards, 2 TDs, and 0.5 INTs per game (he added 45 total yards as a runner). It was about on par for what the USC product did over the course of the 2025 campaign: 232 yards passing, 23 yards rushing, and 1.8 total TDs across 17 starts. There’s a bit of an asterisk with his Week 16 outing, though. Prior to the fumbled onside kick, the Bears had scored nine points, and Williams had fewer than 200 yards and no TDs. All credit to him for stepping through when the Packers opened the door, but Chicago totaled three points combined in the first halves of their games with Green Bay, so it has not been smooth sailing. The Bears have made a living with comebacks, but they fell short versus San Francisco and Detroit to close the season, and you wonder if that will have any effect. Add it all up, and Williams is an iffy choice here.

Fade: WR Rome Odunze (foot)

It remains unclear if Odunze will return this Saturday, but that certainly appears to be the plan. While it should be a boost to that offense, let’s remember a couple of key points: 1) Odunze hasn’t played since Black Friday, and in that time, Burden has grown into his role, and 2) over his last eight games before the injury, Odunze averaged just 46 yards per outing with one total touchdown -- that after scoring five times in the season’s first month. A player of Odunze’s talent always has upside, but you’re talking about overcoming a lot of question marks to deliver. Proceed at your own risk.

Prediction: Packers 27, Bears 20 ^ Top

Bills @ Jaguars - (Krueger)
Line: JAX -1.5
Total: 51.5

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen

Favorites: RB James Cook

Cook is typically in the No-Brainer category but the Jaguars have been stingy against the position (3rd fewest fantasy points allowed) and haven’t allowed a 100-yard rushing performance this season, so we’ll bump him down a notch to a Favorite this week. Cook topped 100 rushing yards in nine games on his way to finishing as the RB6 in fantasy points per game (half-PPR), but Jacksonville allowed the fewest rushing yards to RBs, so there is some cause for concern. Cook has averaged 20.6 touches in five playoff games over the last two seasons so workload shouldn’t be an issue. In Cook’s favor is the game total (51.5), and the fact that he’s is the best offensive weapon on the team outside of Josh Allen. Also, Ty Johnson (ankle) has missed practice this week and could be limited which might help Cook in the receiving game. I wouldn’t shy away from the Bills starting RB in playoff leagues and contests this week, but just know the matchup is not in his favor.

On the Fence: TE Dalton Kincaid, WR Khalil Shakir

Kincaid (knee) was back in action Week 18 but played sparingly (10 snaps) like most Bills starters. He did get the 3 catches in his short time on the field and should be a full-go for Wildcard Weekend despite being limited in practice on Wednesday. Kincaid’s high-water mark for targets is just 6 this season, so he’ll need efficiency in order to post a difference making fantasy score. That could be in the cards as the Jaguars are more vulnerable against the pass than the run, giving up the 10th most fantasy points to the position.

With just one 100-yard game and 4 TDs on the season, it’s difficult to get excited about Shakir’s fantasy prospects. He was the WR46 in fantasy points per game (half-ppr) in a run-first offense that spreads the ball around when they do decide to throw. However, the reduced player pool, a middling matchup and a potential negative game script this week do make him viable as a WR2. Brandin Cooks appears to have worked himself into the team’s No.2 wideout role with a 4-101-0 line in Week 17. He also sat last week… a sign he’ll be out there with Shakir and the starters this weekend.

Fade: N/A

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: QB Trevor Lawrence

Favorites: RB Travis Etienne

Trevor Lawrence has been on a serious heater, especially the last four weeks where he’s finished no worse than the QB5. A lot of the damage Lawrence has done has been on the ground, which has impacted Etienne’s production. He has zero rushing TDs during that span, but does have four receiving scores included a 3-73-3 receiving line in Week 15. While Etienne has just two 100-yard rushing days this season, he gets a great matchup against a Bills defense that’s given up 18 rushing TDs to the position… the most in the league, tied with the Cardinals. Bhayshul Tuten is back in the mix after missing time with a finger injury but Etienne’s role is well defined and he should push for 18-20 touches on Sunday.

On the Fence: WR Jakobi Meyers, WR Parker Washington, TE Brenton Strange

Paker Washington has been the most reliable Jacksonville receiver over the last three weeks with 29 targets, 2 TDs and two 100-yard performances in that span. He, along with Jakobi Meyers have demoted Brian Thomas Jr. to third in the pecking order among wideouts and perhaps the 4th in the offense if you include tight end Brenton Strange. The Bills are one of five teams that have given up less than 2000 receiving yards to wideouts, partly because they invite teams to drive the field by running the ball and hope you make a mistake along the way. Meyers and Washington are the preferred options here as Buffalo is best in the league against fantasy tight ends.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Bills 26, Jaguars 24 ^ Top

49ers @ Eagles
Line: PHI -5.5
Total: 43.5

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: RB Christian McCaffrey

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: QB Brock Purdy, TE George Kittle (ankle), WR Jauan Jennings

QB Brock Purdy’s recent surge was halted by the Seahawks last week, as he was held to just 127 passing yards with no touchdowns and one interception — a result that helped Seattle secure the NFC’s top seed. Despite that stumble, Purdy still finished the year behind only Josh Allen in FPts/G (22.2) among quarterbacks with at least nine starts.

Rebounding won’t be easy. Purdy could again be without Ricky Pearsall (knee), while George Kittle appears both limited and likely to be closely defended (see below). Philadelphia has been elite against the pass, allowing just 14 touchdown throws all season — fewest in the league.

If there’s an opening in the matchup, it’s on the ground. The Eagles have been vulnerable to mobile quarterbacks, surrendering 400 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns. While Purdy isn’t a dynamic runner, he’s averaged roughly 20 rushing yards per game and a rushing touchdown every three games over the past two seasons. With limited weapons, he may need to lean on that aspect of his game, and rushing production remains the clearest path to QB1 fantasy output.

Purdy is truly on the fence this week, but his rushing floor gives him a plausible — if far from guaranteed — route to low-end QB1 production.

There are few situations where George Kittle isn’t a no-brainer, and when he isn’t, injury is almost always a major factor. That’s again the case this weekend. Kittle is coming off a modest 5-29-0 performance against Seattle while dealing with an ankle injury, and he remains limited in practice.

Playing at less than full strength is particularly concerning against an Eagles defense that has suffocated tight ends all season. Brock Bowers’ 6-target, 28-yard outing in Week 15 was one of the more notable examples. No tight end has topped 61 yards against Philadelphia, and just four have scored all year.

Likely to be limited and facing a defense allowing just 4.8 yards per target to tight ends, Kittle is a surprisingly risky TE1 play on Wild Card Weekend.

Wide receiver Jauan Jennings also saw his five-game touchdown streak snapped by Seattle, managing just a 4-35-0 line on six targets. Jennings has topped 60 receiving yards only three times this season and has largely relied on touchdowns for fantasy relevance.

That reliance is problematic against an Eagles defense that has allowed just six wide receiver touchdowns all season and has limited all but three wideouts to single-digit fantasy performances over the last 10 games. The one appeal for Jennings is potential volume if the 49ers fall behind and Purdy is forced to throw. That keeps him in the flex conversation, but his ceiling is fairly limited.

Fade: N/A

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: QB Jalen Hurts, WR A.J. Brown, RB Saquon Barkley, TE Dallas Goedert

After finishing QB7 in FPts/G (19.9), Jalen Hurts begins Philadelphia’s title defense at home against the 49ers. San Francisco has been middling against opposing quarterbacks overall, but has done a strong job limiting mobility, allowing just 224 rushing yards and one rushing touchdown.

Hurts, however, enjoyed the most prolific passing season of his career, throwing a career-high 25 touchdowns and posting eight multi-touchdown games. The 49ers have allowed multiple passing touchdowns in 10 games this year — including nine of their last 13 — and with San Francisco’s defense dealing with injuries, Hurts profiles as a solid QB1 this weekend.

Wide receiver A.J. Brown narrowly cleared 1,000 yards after a slow start, finishing with his sixth career 1,000-yard season. He averaged 81 yards per game over the final nine contests, including four 100-yard performances, following very public frustration earlier in the year.

Brown was also quiet at times during Philadelphia’s Super Bowl run, so some volatility remains — especially considering the Eagles went just 1-3 this season when Brown topped 100 yards. Still, few receivers can match his ceiling, and against a banged-up 49ers secondary, Brown carries clear WR1 upside.

While Saquon Barkley’s 2025 season fell short of expectations overall, he began to resemble his old self down the stretch, producing two 100-yard games and three touchdowns over his final four outings.

The extra rest in Week 18 should benefit Barkley as well, particularly after the wear and tear of nearly 500 touches in 2024. San Francisco’s run defense has collapsed late in the year, culminating in strong performances from Zach Charbonnet (17.2 FPts) and Kenneth Walker (15.3 FPts) in Week 18. Five different running backs topped 15 FPts against the 49ers over their final four games, with no obvious fix in sight.

In a favorable home matchup and coming off what amounted to a bye week, Barkley is a viable RB1 this weekend.

Tight end Dallas Goedert nearly matched his previous four-season touchdown total with 11 scores in 2025, as Jalen Hurts and offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo repeatedly exploited defenses expecting targets elsewhere near the goal line. Outside of touchdowns, Goedert’s production was consistent with past seasons (60 catches for 592 yards in 15 games), providing a stable floor.

Against a 49ers defense that allowed 10 tight end touchdowns, Goedert profiles as a mid-tier TE1. Given the lack of reliable tight end options this postseason, he may be one of the safest plays at the position.

On the Fence: WR DeVonta Smith

Devonta Smith recorded his third career 1,000-yard season and actually finished with five more receiving yards than A.J. Brown, though it came in two additional games. His season trended downward, however, as Smith topped 52 receiving yards just once over the final eight games and finished with a career-low four touchdowns — largely a byproduct of Goedert’s red zone emergence.

Smith’s talent remains undeniable — as evidenced by his 183-yard performance against Minnesota in October — but Philadelphia’s efforts to force-feed Brown have introduced week-to-week volatility. At this point, Smith is a risky flex option, even against the 49ers.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Eagles 27, 49ers 17 ^ Top

Chargers @ Patriots - (Caron)
Line: NE -3.5
Total: 46.5

NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Quentin Johnston

The Chargers’ passing game struggled down the stretch, but if there’s any hope for them to walk away with a win in the Wild Card round, then they’ll need their pass-catchers to step up. A case could be made that Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston, and Keenan Allen could all be considered the top receiver on the Chargers’ roster for the 2025 season—all three of them finished with over 700 yards but under 800 yards on the season—however, the one who seemingly has the highest ceiling right now is Johnston.

Allen surpassed McConkey and Johnston in receptions for the season due to him actually being active in Week 18. Allen would catch seven passes for 36 yards, albeit without Justin Herbert throwing him the ball, so his stats might feel the “freshest” in the eyes of fantasy managers. However, a closer look at the Chargers’ post-Week-10-bye numbers gives a better picture as to what has been happening in Los Angeles—and it’s been the Quentin Johnston show. Johnston may have been banged up in the Chargers’ Week 14 game against the Eagles and he would go on to miss Week 15 entirely, but otherwise he’s been the Chargers’ most productive pass-catcher down the stretch. Despite seeing just 19 total targets over his past four starts since the bye, Johnston out-produced both Allen (six games) and McConkey (five games).

This is probably the most equally split WR group in the league, but Johnston might be flying under the radar despite being the one who provides the greatest upside. Keep in mind, that Patriots’ standout cornerback Christian Gonzalez is likely to be matched up with McConkey, so there’s a good chance that Johnston will be left in more favorable matchups. Take a chance on him if you’re looking to differentiate from the pack and shoot for upside.

On the Fence: RB Omarion Hampton

Hampton’s rookie season was cut down by numerous injuries, so it should come as no surprise that he’s now listed as questionable heading into the playoffs. Hampton, who injured his ankle back in Week 17, was one of many starters who sat out for the Chargers in Week 18 and he’s been nursing this ankle injury for nearly two weeks. He missed practice on Thursday and fantasy managers will need to keep an eye on his practice status for Friday as well as the news coming out of Chargers’ camp heading into the game.

If he’s even active, Hampton will likely be physically limited. That could mean fewer total opportunities than usual and it could also mean that he’s simply less effective with whatever touches he does get. Add in a tough matchup against a good New England run defense and this doesn’t seem like a great situation on paper.

However, if Hampton has simply been resting and ends up being fully ready to go, then he is one of the few running backs playing on Wild Card weekend who has legitimate 20-touch upside. We saw it in Week 17 when he touched the ball 22 times against the Texans, including a career-high eight receptions. Hampton has quietly caught the ball at least five times in four of the nine games he’s played in as a rookie, so he’s got some serious PPR upside, particularly against a Patriots defense that gave up 84 receptions to opposing running backs during the regular season—fifth-most in the league.

Managers will need to be cautious with this one, but Hampton could play a big role this week, assuming he’s active and ready to go. If he’s out, then managers should look to pivot to Kimani Vidal as a cheap, sneaky option.

Fade: QB Justin Herbert

There are a number of reasons why Justin Herbert has been “good, not great” this season, but unfortunately none of them are likely to change heading into this difficult road playoff game in New England. The Patriots finished in the bottom-10 in the league in sacks this season, but that hasn’t stopped them from being a top-10 unit in preventing opposing quarterbacks from scoring fantasy points. No QB has reached the 300-yard mark against them since Week 2, and they conceded the second-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs over the final five weeks of the regular season.

With Herbert still nursing a hand injury and this being a road game in a cold environment, this is probably a good time to look elsewhere for fantasy QB production. We may have better opportunities for Herbert later in the playoffs if the Chargers pull off the upset, but this is about as bad as it gets.

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28

No Brainers: QB Drake Maye, WR Stefon Diggs

Favorites: RB Rhamondre Stevenson, TE Hunter Henry

What more is there to say than, “Wow!,” regarding Rhamondre Stevenson’s end to the 2025 regular season. Only Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Chase Brown, and Jahmyr Gibbs scored more fantasy points than Stevenson did over the final five weeks -- and Stevenson only carried the ball 41 times over that stretch. Sure, he contributed in the passing game as well, but he didn’t have any crazy outlier PPR performances that would seem to be unrepeatable going forward. What we’re seeing from him is tremendous efficiency in a high-octane offense led by a quarterback who just might win MVP. This would be an absolute smash play if Stevenson had a better matchup, but unfortunately, he’s facing a Chargers defense that was quietly elite against opposing running backs, having conceded the league’s second-fewest fantasy points to the position during the regular season. Still, this is a “ride the hot hand” type of situation and there’s no reason to believe that Stevenson won’t get more opportunities to get into the end zone in this matchup.

Tight end Hunter Henry was a quiet producer this season, but his performances down the stretch should not go overlooked. Henry caught 26 passes for 346 yards and three touchdowns over the final six weeks of the regular season, resulting in five double-digit PPR fantasy performances. With players like Trey McBride, Kyle Pitts, Travis Kelce and Brock Bowers now out of the picture, Henry is an under-the-radar elite fantasy tight end for the playoffs. Sure, he’s got a tough matchup against a good Chargers defense, but there’s a good chance for him to see some volume in this one, especially if Los Angeles sells out to stop the run.

On the Fence: RB TreVeyon Henderson

While it’s been Rhamondre Stevenson who’s been stealing the headlines, rookie TreVeyon Henderson is actually probably the safer option—he just hasn’t been quite as explosive as Stevenson.

Henderson has significantly out-touched Stevenson despite being utilized much less often in the passing game and while he’s struggled a bit with inconsistency, he also delivered two multi-touchdown performances over the final four games of the regular season. He also carried the ball at least 10 times in all but one of the Patriots’ final 10 games.

The matchup here is tough with the Chargers having a very stout run defense, but both Henderson and Stevenson are in play at the moment.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Patriots 30, Chargers 20 ^ Top

Texans @ Steelers - (Green)
Line: HOU -3.0
Total: 38.5

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: RB Woody Marks, WR Nico Collins

Favorites: TE Dalton Schultz

While he rarely seemed to register as more than a blip on fantasy radars, Schultz quietly put together his best season since his breakout year of 2021, leading the Texans in receptions (82), and finishing second in yards (777). His three touchdowns were less than ideal from a big target, but with Christian Kirk disappointing in his first year with the club and Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel both rookies getting their first taste of playoff football, Schultz could be relied on heavily in Pittsburgh. The Steelers finished 29th in pass defense, and that included all kinds of trouble giving up big plays to the Ravens this past Sunday night. By fantasy scoring, Schultz finished 10th among tight ends during the regular season, but he’s third among ones that are playing this weekend, so he’s worth a spot in your lineup.

On the Fence: QB C.J. Stroud

After an excellent rookie season, Stroud has trended in the wrong direction, and even though the Texans have won six straight games since he returned from injury, it often feels like he’s along for the ride. Take the Chargers game in Week 17 for example. He started red hot, connecting on a pair of long TD passes, but he struggled after that, tossing two interceptions and basically being shelved -- after racking up 156 yards on their first two drives, the Texans managed 206 over their remaining 11, managing just a pair of field goals. Pittsburgh’s 29th-ranked pass defense certainly provides Stroud with a chance to deliver, but unless the Steelers jump out to a lead, it feels like a conservative approach from Houston’s offense is more likely.

Fade: WR Jayden Higgins

Higgins has been the best of Houston’s other receivers, finishing ahead of both Noel and Kirk with a 41-525-6 line. Those six touchdowns tied him with Collins for team-high honors, and he enters the postseason on a modest two-game scoring streak. While there is some big-play capability, something the Ravens exploited in Week 18, Higgins would be a risky option. He hasn’t had more than two receptions in a game since Dec. 7, and he only topped 50 yards in a game three times as a rookie. That makes him no more than a high-risk lottery ticket.

HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: RB Jaylen Warren, RB Kenneth Gainwell, WR DK Metcalf

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: TE Pat Freiermuth

The return of Metcalf severely undercuts the appeal of the trio of Calvin Austin III, Adam Theilen, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who were counted on to varying degrees during Metcalf’s two-game suspension. Houston will doubtless focus their efforts on slowing down Pittsburgh’s star wideout, though, and the Steelers will need someone else to step up to move the offense. While Gainwell is the most likely choice, Freiermuth seems like the next in line. The tight end matched Gainwell for second on the club with 486 yards, and his role should continue to be magnified following the loss of Darnell Washington (forearm), who posted a 31-364-1 line before breaking his forearm in Week 17. Even among the limited options at tight end, Freiermuth feels like a gamble on Wild Card weekend relative to someone like Schultz, Colston Loveland, or Dalton Kincaid, but he should cost a fraction of the amount in DFS formats. So, if you’re investing heavily in other areas, Freiermuth offers decent potential.

Fade: QB Aaron Rodgers

Give Rodgers some credit. The veteran delivered with the season on the line this past Sunday night, throwing for a season-high 294 yards with a 26-yard touchdown to Austin going down as his final pass attempt of the regular season. To put it mildly, the Texans are not the Ravens. Baltimore struggled to generate a pass rush, and their defense suffered a devastating in-game blow when Kyle Hamilton (concussion) was ruled out. Houston can get after the quarterback. They ranked sixth in pass defense, and only the Chargers posted a better opponent’s TD:INT ratio. Rodgers is going to protect the ball, but it’s hard to envision him putting up big-time numbers against this defense.

Prediction: Texans 20, Steelers 16 ^ Top