With Travis Kelce, Mark Andrews, Darren Waller, George Kittle,
and others all dealing with injuries that have them out or at
least limited at the moment, to say that the tight end position
is weak right now throughout the league would be an understatement.
That’s why a player like T.J. Hockenson, who finished as the TE2
in 2022, is so valuable right now. Hockenson also delivered in
Week 1, catching eight of the nine passes that came his way. While
he was only able to muster 35 yards on those catches and didn’t
score a touchdown, he was still the TE3 on the week while finishing
second at the position in targets behind only Zach Ertz.
This type of usage follows the pattern of usage that the Vikings
were deploying throughout the second half of the season after
acquiring Hockenson. It shouldn’t really come as any surprise
that his usage will remain one of the best at the position. The
Eagles are a great defense so it’s tough to be too excited
about anyone facing them. Still, Hockenson is about as good of
a bet as can be made at the tight end position right now and should
be again in the conversation to finish as the top scorer at the
position this week.
Rookie wide receiver Jordan Addison had an excellent NFL debut
as he caught four of the six passes that came his way for 61 yards
and a touchdown. This was an important performance as it proved
that he’s going to be a focal point of the offense despite
his young age and having to contend for targets with one of the
league’s best receivers in Justin Jefferson.
Still, there are some side notes that we need to be aware of
when it comes to Addison that make him more of an “on the fence”
player than a “favorite.” Particularly his snap percentage from
Week 1 is a bit concerning, as he saw the field for just 56.2
percent of the Vikings’ offensive plays, whereas teammate K.J.
Osborn was out there on 90.6 percent of plays, indicating that
- at least from a personnel standpoint - Addison is still the
WR3 in this offense. Certainly, there is a talent discrepancy
here and Addison will almost certainly play himself into more
usage as time goes on, but we could see some ups and downs early
this year when it comes to his fantasy production.
There were quite a few horrific performances from other receivers
and Addison did look good in Week 1, so don’t feel too worried
if you do have to put him in your lineup this week, just understand
that there might be more risk in starting him against an excellent
Eagles defense than it might appear on the surface.
While he produced just 34 yards on the ground, Week 1 has to
be considered a win for fantasy managers rostering Vikings running
back Alexander Mattison. Mattison was out there for 73.4 percent
of the snaps, with Ty Chandler being the only other back who even
saw the field, checking in on just 11 total snaps for the afternoon.
Mattison also out-touched Chandler by a ratio of 14 to 4, and
he was surprisingly useful in the passing game, catching three
passes on four targets, including a touchdown.
While we have to be happy with the usage, there’s no question
that Mattison’s actual production on his touches was uninspiring
against a bad Buccaneers defense. Now he faces the fearsome Eagles
front seven that might just be the best unit in the entire league,
in a game where his team is a six-point road underdog.
We’ve seen that Mattison could be utilized more in the
passing game than we originally expected, and he will almost certainly
get the early down work in this game, but this looks like a potentially
disappointing fantasy day for Mattison if he’s not able
to sneak into the end zone as he did in Week 1.
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Fantasy managers who spent significant draft capital on Eagles
wide receivers were happy in Week 1 as the duo delivered solid
fantasy production in a road game against the Patriots. This week
they come home to face a Vikings defense that is coming off of
a 2022 season where they were the ninth-worst defense at defending
opposing wide receivers. They gave up 11 combined catches for
117 yards on 16 targets to the duo of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
in Week 1 and that was against Baker Mayfield who was making his
first start for the Bucs in a game where they were significant
underdogs. Now the Vikings have the unenviable task of trying
to stop one of the league’s best duos out wide. Fire up Smith
and A.J. Brown both as WR1s this week.
The biggest concern coming out of the Week 1 performance from
the Philadelphia passing game has to be the usage - or lack thereof
- from tight end Dallas Goedert. He was targeted just once in
Week 1 and did not make a catch on that pass, which meant that
he was blanked on the stat sheet for the first time since Week
3 of the 2019 season. Goedert is not a super high-end option at
the position, but one thing we can typically rely on is that he’s
going to get his five to seven targets and he’s usually
going to make a handful of catches in each game. Sometimes that
means he gets into the end zone and gives you a truly difference-making
performance at a bad tight end position, but the last thing we
expect is that he’s going to give us absolutely nothing.
Because of this terrible performance, Goedert really can’t
be considered a Favorite at the moment.
Even with this information, though, fantasy managers shouldn’t
be completely pressing the panic button on Goedert quite yet.
He still played on 92.4 percent of Philadelphia’s offensive
plays, with only one other tight end even seeing the field throughout
the game. There’s no question that Goedert is still the
top tight end on the roster and thus we should have hope that
he’ll get back to being a reliable mid-level TE1 this week.
Fade: All Philadelphia Running Backs
The Eagles completely bamboozled the fantasy world in Week 1
when it came to their backfield. Sure, we had all heard the reports
that Kenneth
Gainwell was going to be a bigger part of the backfield than
some had originally believed, but few could’ve possibly predicted
that newcomer Rachaad Penny would be a healthy scratch while fellow
newcomer D’Andre
Swift saw just two touches on a 28.8 percent snap share. It
was truly the Gainwell show in Week 1.
Now we head into Week 2 and it would be easy to project that
Gainwell will lead the backfield in touches and snaps again, but
Gainwell actually suffered a rib injury and has been ruled out
of Thursday night’s contest. It would be great if we could
just immediately assume that someone else will be able to step
in and become the bell cow for the Eagles in Week 2, but this
is a truly volatile situation that could go anyway, with Swift,
Penny or even Boston Scott seeing significant touches. Unfortunately,
the most likely outcome, at least on the surface, seems to be
some sort of committee approach that will probably limit the upside
of all three of these backs, requiring them to either get into
the end zone or produce a high reception share to really deliver
anything of use for fantasy purposes.
If you’re absolutely desperate, Swift seems like the best bet
given his history of usage in the passing game and the fact that
he was at least active and seeing the field on roughly a third
of the Eagles’ snaps, but don’t be surprised if his usage doesn’t
shift significantly from where it was in Week 1 and the Eagles
instead just make things painful on fantasy managers with a full-blown
committee.
Moore’s debut as a Chicago Bear did not go so well. Two
catches on two targets caught many by surprise, especially considering
the negative game script for most of the contest. I would anticipate
the Bears being more purposeful in getting their star free agent
receiver involved this week against the Bucs. Whether that translates
into startable production remains to be seen as Justin Fields
still has a long way to go as a passer. He ranked 24th in ESPN’s
QBR last week and only 13 of his 37 attempts went to wideouts.
Despite Darnell Mooney (4-53-1) finishing last week with better
numbers than Moore, I think he takes a noted step back in Tampa
this week.
This Bears’ backfield is a mess from a fantasy perspective. Nine
carries for Khalil Herbert in the opener; five each for D’Onta
Foreman and Roschon Johnson. Also, throw in the inevitability
of Fields stealing the money carries at the goal line and you
have an even greater reason to steer clear of this backfield.
Most of Roschon’s work came in garbage time in the second half
but he did seem to be most talented running of the group. Keep
an eye on this RB rotation in Week 2. The Bucs gave up 34 rushing
yards to the Vikings RBs last week and the 6th fewest fantasy
points to running backs last season.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Mike Evans just keeps doing Mike Evans things. He led the team
last week in targets, receptions, and receiving yards, plus a
score. Evans came at a discount this year in drafts compared to
previous years, as many anticipated a drop-off in 2023. That drop-off
may very well still happen; just not yet. We cannot count him
out, despite who his QB is. Godwin remains a steady presence in
this Bucs offense as well. Godwin doesn’t seem to have the
downfield burst he had prior to his ACL injury in 2021, but he
remains a solid fantasy contributor who owners can count on for
solid low-end WR2 numbers.
Rachaad White had a dreadful Week 1, although the volume he received
was promising. Only nine other runners had more than his 17 carries,
so while the 36 yards he mustered leaves a lot to be desired,
the degree to which he was the focal point is a great sign moving
forward.
I must say, I’m not the biggest Baker Mayfield fan. But
if I’m optimistic about the pass catchers for Tampa Bay,
shouldn’t I be optimistic about the QB? Logic would probably
say I should, but it’s hard for me to see beyond his often-careless
play. At best, Mayfield is a bye-week filler or Hail Mary option
for injury-plagued teams. The Bears defense just allowed Jordan
Love to the QB4 in Week 1 so there’s room for Mayfield to
play above his average outcome.
Fellow RB Aaron Jones is iffy with a hamstring issue sustained
last week. If he can’t suit up, Dillon becomes a high-end RB2
this week, despite his usual absence from the passing game. This
backfield, when healthy, is something of a 55-45 split in Jones’
favor, making both startable options most weeks. But if during
any week one of them is out, it opens the possibility for some
solid production for the available RB, and I envision that for
Dillon should Jones sit this one out.
Opinions of Jordan Love during draft season were all over the
board—from him flirting with a top-10 finish at season’s
end, to him being inconsistent and fringe starter for fantasy
in 2023. His Week 1 performance, though, should have quieted the
skeptics just a bit. He was solid from a fantasy perspective,
tossing three TD passes on just 27 attempts. That kind of efficiency
isn’t expected every week, but it gave us a glimpse into
the potential of this offense with Love as its conductor. WR Christian
Watson’s possible absence from this game, coupled with Aaron
Jones’ injury concerns, could make things dicey. But Love
is positioned to continue the upward swing he started on Week
1.
Rookie Luke Musgrave’s first NFL game last week was solid but
unspectacular. Tight ends didn’t do much across the league in
Week 1, as no player at the position had more than 56 receiving
yards. But guess who had the second-most receiving yards at the
position? Luke Musgrave. With the TE position in fantasy being
as thin as it is, any player with promising potential should be
rostered. Musgrave fits that mold. But while he’s a building block
in fantasy who can add depth at a thin position, I think it would
be foolish to rely on him as a fantasy starter right now. Give
him time, though. Be patient. It could pay off soon.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
For the life of me, I don’t understand Atlanta’s
approach on offense. The team has invested two top-10 draft picks
in pass catchers Drake London and Kyle Pitts since 2021—players
we were told could alter the destiny of that franchise, and in
Pitts’ case, someone who’s a generational talent.
Yet here we are in 2023, watching Falcons games while screaming
at the television, wondering why the team is employing a painfully
conservative offensive strategy from 1982.
That strategy, generally, is fine. I guess. But if they want
to PLAY that way, why not DRAFT that way? Target a few 280-pound
blocking TEs or some road-grating 320-pound guards. But they draft
athletic skill players then employ a three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust
offensive philosophy. Incredible.
London is considered the team’s No.1 option, but he finished
last week with one target and zero catches. One target. One. Target.
It’s maddening, and as long as it keeps happening and I
keep writing these pieces for this site, I’m going to keep
howling at the moon about it. Throw the ball to your skill position
players in whom you invested top 10 picks. How difficult can that
be? Apparently, very difficult.
It was painful watching Desmond Ridder under center in Week 1.
This offense, outside of its RBs, it limited. They only had 48
plays, including 18 pass attempts. Eighteen. In 2023. The fact
that they scored 24 points with THAT philosophy and THAT coach
is a minor miracle. It will be interesting to see how this offense
responds when it plays a prolific team and is forced to score.
But Ridder belongs nowhere near your starting lineup, and barely
on your roster.
This team is not deep with many fantasy options, but Pittman
is certainly the team’s best fantasy producer outside of Anthony
Richardson. While some anticipated that Pittman’s production would
be hit or miss this season as Richardson gets a firmer grasp of
the NFL game, Pittman came out the gates with a stellar game,
finishing with 8 catches on 11 targets—a nearly 30 percent target
share. With RB Jonathan Taylor on IR through Week 4, Pittman can
expect to be the main cog in this Colts offensive engine, and
his fantasy owners can expect him to be in the conversation for
WR3 status each week.
Moss sat out the opener last week with an arm injury, but he
returns to a running game desperate for some production. Deon
Jackson last week had 14 yards on 13 carries, plus he lost two
fumbles. Yikes. Moss won’t remind anybody of Barry Sanders,
but eclipsing 14 yards on 13 carries should be a possibility.
I would recommend sitting him this week to see first how he does
with Richardson under center.
Fade: N/A
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Rookie QB CJ Stroud’s first NFL game was nothing to write home
about in the traditional sense. But as first NFL games go, it
wasn’t too bad. The rookie had 44 pass attempts with no picks,
yet he could only muster 9 points. It was eye-opening, however,
to see the degree to which WRs Nico Collins and Robert Woods were
used. The two accounted for nearly a 50 percent target share.
That’s promising. I’m a fan of RB Dameon Pierce. Devin Singletary
will continue to have a role, but I wouldn’t expect it to be such
that it eats into Pierce’s long-term value. Houston’s offense
is young and a work in progress. This offensive core is best used
for roster depth—sans Pierce—not necessarily players you can rely
on week after week. Keep an eye on this team. They will have some
sneaky productive weeks moving forward.
With such emphasis on getting the WRs the ball last week, Dalton
Schultz was the odd man out with only four targets. Stroud is
not yet at the point where he can make more than one pass catcher
fantasy relevant. He could be years away from that. Schultz at
this point is best used for roster depth and/or bye week fill-in.
Offensively, I think this team is on the right track but it will
require some patience.
Week 1 was a disaster for the Seahawks, and Smith got caught
up in it, throwing for a paltry 112 yards against the Rams. The
loss of starting OTs Abraham Lucas (knee) and Charles Cross (toe)
played a big part, and there’s a good chance they’ll
have to do without both in Week 2 -- Lucas was placed on IR, but
Cross still has a chance to play. While that’s less than
ideal, the Seahawks will at least be able to plan for their absence
rather than adjusting on the fly, which should help Smith get
back on track. His last trip to Motown concluded with 320 yards
and 2 TDs passing to go with 49 yards and his lone rushing TD
of 2022. He’s worth the risk as a QB1 depending on your
options.
You have to go back to Dec. 2, 2019, to find a less productive
effort from Lockett than the two catches and 10 yards he posted
against LA last Sunday. He took a hard hit during the game as
well and was evaluated for a concussion. Lockett was cleared,
though, and should be full go in Week 2. The last time he faced
the Lions, the veteran hauled in six passes for 91 yards, trailing
only Metcalf (7-149-0). We know he can do damage against the Lions,
but with the tackle situation it remains to be seen if Smith will
have the time for Lockett to work downfield. He’s a fringe
WR3.
It was a forgettable debut for Smith-Njigba, who caught three
passes (on five targets) for 13 yards. It was something of an
accomplishment that he was able to play in the game after sustaining
a wrist injury during camp, but that’s small consolation
to any fantasy owners that plugged him into their lineup. JSN’s
short-area quickness has a chance to make him a popular target
if the blocking can’t hold up, but it feels like taking
a wait-and-see approach with the rookie is the better path right
now.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Put bluntly, Goff was a vastly superior player statistically
at home last season than on the road. To that end, he averaged
275 yards and 2.5 TDs per game at Ford Field, highlighted by his
378-yard, 4-touchdown performance against the Seahawks in Week
3. He was efficient but unspectacular against the Chiefs, but
after watching Matthew Stafford light up Seattle without Cooper
Kupp, owners should be looking for a way to get Goff in their
lineup as a solid QB1.
LaPorta had a solid debut, hauling in five passes for 39 yards
and being heavily involved in the offensive attack. Also pointing
to a possible big game is what T.J. Hockenson was able to do in
this offense against the Seahawks a year ago when he posted an
8-179-2 line in that Week 3 shootout. On the flip side, Hockenson
dealt with inconsistent usage before his trade to Minnesota, which
is something LaPorta could encounter as well. The rookie is a
fringe TE1 with moderate risk/reward.
Keenan Allen continues to put up numbers despite his advancing
age and competition for targets. He led the team last week in
targets, receptions, and receiving yards, and we should continue
to expect such production from the 31-year-old veteran. The Titans
just gave up 8 for 112 to Saints WR Chris Olave last week. Herbert
should have his way in this game, giving Allen owners optimism
heading into the contest. Look for Allen to pace the receiving
corps with a productive stat line.
As of this writing, RB Austin Ekeler has yet to practice this
week, opening the door for Joshua Kelley to start in his place.
Kelley should be productive even if Ekeler plays, as he has stand-alone
value after last week’s performance. Both Ekeler and Kelley
finished with 16 carries, and each was productive. And while Ekeler’s
receiving prowess separates him from his teammate, Kelley nonetheless
remains a startable option, particularly in the flex position.
Keep an eye on Ekeler’s availability, but also know that
Kelley is an option either way.
As tight ends go, Gerald Everett is a solid NFL option but a
marginal fantasy producer. Tight ends are hit or miss generally
but making matters more complicated are tight ends who must battle
others for targets. That’s Everett. Tight ends usually help their
QBs by being the safety valve running short routes. With the Chargers,
Ekeler plays that role, leaving little left to nibble on. Fade
Everett this week…and most others.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Heading into this season, no clear-minded fantasy player believed
DeAndre Hopkins would rekindle the production he enjoyed during
his heyday with Houston. First of all, he’s older; secondly, QB
Ryan Tannehill is “just a guy”; and third, we all know Derrick
Henry is the straw that stirs Tennessee’s offensive drink. Starting
Hopkins means banking on the 38 percent target share he received
last week. That’s sure to deliver solid numbers at some point.
The eyeball test during last week’s game against New Orleans revealed
that Hopkins still possesses a pop to his game; the kind of quick
twitch athleticism he’s shown throughout his career. That’s a
plus. But at this stage of his career, Hopkins is what he is:
a high floor/low ceiling receiver who can complement a fantasy
team well. Hopkins missed practice on Thursday so check his status
after practice on Friday.
Tannehill is best left for Super Flex leagues; one QB leagues
should run away from him as fast as you can. He completed only
50 percent of his passes last week and tossed three interceptions.
He is not a reliable fantasy player this week, next week, or the
week after that.
With Andrews inactive in Week 1, Flowers emerged as Jackson’s
go-to receiver. The rookie was targeted on 10 of the 22 passes,
catching nine of them for 78 yards; for comparison, the duo of
Odell Beckham Jr. and Rashod Bateman combined for five receptions
and 72 yards. It was an impressive performance with Flowers proving
he could make things happen in space and turn quick passes into
meaningful gains. The team certainly hopes to get Andrews back
this Sunday, but even if that happens, Flowers could be deployed
as a low-end WR3.
The season-ending injury to J.K. Dobbins (Achilles) is a bad
case of déjà vu for the Ravens, which went through that same scenario
back in 2021. This time, at least, he wasn’t immediately followed
onto the IR by Edwards and Hill, both of whom sustained season-ending
injuries of their own two years ago. Here’s what we know: the
Ravens are still going to run the ball, it’s in their DNA. What
we don’t know is how carries are going to be distributed. Edwards
ran eight times for 32 yards in Week 1, and Hill had nine yards
on an identical eight carries but two of them went for touchdowns.
For this Sunday, both are risk/reward flex plays.
Fade: N/A
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Nothing went right for Cincinnati’s offense in rainy Cleveland
last Sunday, but there were at least encouraging signs for Smith
in his debut with the club. Only Chase (9) and Higgins (8) were
targeted more times than Smith (5), who matched Mixon for second
on the team with three receptions. His predecessor, Hayden Hurst,
caught 10 balls and scored a touchdown in two games against Baltimore
last year, so Smith does offer some fringe TE1 upside if you’re
in need.
Boyd (2-10-0) finished fifth on the team in targets (3) against
the Browns, and with as out of synch as the offense looked, it
feels awfully optimistic to think the Bengals will generate enough
passing to support their No. 3 receiver. Boyd was decent in two
matchups with the Ravens a season ago, including a respectable
5-51-0 line in Week 18, but he’s not someone to roll the dice
on this week.
A long holdout had some worried about Josh Jacobs’ early season
usage, but those concerns seemed to be completely overblown as
Jacobs got right back to elite usage with 19 carries and two catches
in Week 1. His efficiency was terrible as he only produced 48
rushing yards on those carries, but we have to expect that his
per-touch efficiency will regress back closer to his norm as times
goes on. Another positive note is that Jacobs played nearly 80
percent of the snaps, so there’s really no concern that he’s going
to be losing any significant touches to either Zamir White or
Ameer Abdullah.
The Bills got absolutely gashed by Breece Hall in Week 1 and
while Jacobs lacks the explosiveness of Hall, he’s likely to see
at least 15 touches this week even if the Raiders end up getting
blown out. He’s an RB1.
Meyers suffered a concussion in Week 1 and missed practice on
Thursday so his status is in doubt for this week. However, he
was one of the more surprising top performers as the former Patriot
caught nine passes for 81 yards and two touchdowns on 10 targets.
His 38.5 percent target share was vastly more than we could’ve
ever assumed it would have been in his first start for a new team
and he played on nearly 80 percent of the Raiders’ offensive
snaps. By comparison, former Raiders 100-catch receiver Hunter
Renfrow played on just 22 percent of the snaps.
He isn’t typically a strong touchdown producer, but he’s
someone who’s capable of consistently seeing five or more
targets per game, especially in a passing game that’s as
consolidated as Las Vegas’ seems to be. We’ll need
to see more before we trust him to be an every-week fantasy starter,
but given the landscape throughout the league right now he’s
a solid Flex option in PPR formats.
There are really only a handful of tight ends throughout the
league that fantasy managers can really be excited about so it’s
not as if there was a ton of hype around him coming into this
season, but Austin Hooper was disappointing in Week 1 even given
very low expectations. Hooper played just two more snaps than
rookie Michael Mayer, saw just one target, which he did catch
for a 20-yard reception, but failed to get into the end zone and
now has to be looked at as a player who can be dropped in most
leagues. Tight end is ugly right now, but we need to see more
from Hooper before he can even be rostered.
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Quarterback Josh Allen is coming off of one of the worst games
he’s had since his early years when he looked like he shouldn’t
even be playing in the NFL. Allen threw three ugly interceptions
and fumbled in a loss against the Aaron Rodgers-less Jets on Monday
night.
Still, even despite this horrendous performance that certainly
cost fantasy managers dearly, there’s still plenty of reason
to be optimistic about his prospects heading into Week 2. Allen
carried the ball six times for 36 yards, continuing his tradition
of being one of the more mobile quarterbacks in the league, and
there’s really no reason to believe that he won’t
still be willing to take off and run for scores near the goal
line. He also threw for 236 yards and a touchdown against a high-quality
Jets defense, whereas the Raiders were a bottom-10 defense against
opposing quarterbacks in 2022. In fact, Las Vegas intercepted
just six passes on the year - tied for fewest in the NFL - so
the “whoopsies” we saw from Allen in Week 1 should
be minimalized against this bad secondary.
This looks like a big bounce-back week for the Bills passing
game as a whole, but particularly for Allen who remains one of
the top assets in all of fantasy football.
One of the more contentious players during draft season, Bills
running back James Cook saw decent usage in Week 1 as he carried
the ball 12 times 46 yards, adding four receptions for 17 yards
in the passing game. He played on nearly 60 percent of Buffalo’s
snaps in a game that was surprisingly competitive even after Aaron
Rodgers’ injury.
While he certainly didn’t light up the stat sheet, what we can
take away from this game is that Cook is definitely the RB1 in
this offense, particularly when the game is close or when the
Bills are behind on the scoreboard. That should be enough to make
him a viable RB2 right now, especially against the Raiders and
their defense that gave up 135 total yards to the duo of Javonte
Williams and Samaje Perine in Week 1. The Raiders also gave up
the seventh-most fantasy points to opposing running backs throughout
the 2022 season, so there’s no reason to think that their Week
1 struggles were a fluke.
Many assumed that while James Cook might be the “starter,” that
Damien Harris would be the defacto “goal-line” back in Buffalo
and could even see a good share of the early-down work. Instead,
the veteran played on just 13 percent of snaps, far behind James
Cook (59.4 percent) and even Latavius Murray (23.2 percent). It’s
always possible that Harris ends up coming in at the goal line
and stealing a touchdown from Cook, but if he’s seeing fewer than
10 touches overall - which seems like almost a guarantee at the
moment - then it’ll be almost impossible for him to deliver for
fantasy purposes even if he does get in the end zone. He’s a player
to avoid right now.
Kelce missed the opener last week with a bruised knee, but many
expect him to make his debut on Sunday despite his limited practice
status as of this writing. The way KC’s receivers struggled
against Detroit last week put into sharp focus just how much the
Chiefs need Kelce. Some may argue the receivers’ play cost
the Chiefs the game. I anticipate Kelce playing this week, and
I also anticipate Patrick Mahomes making Kelce the focal point
of the passing game, per usual, with a 30 percent target share.
Kelce will remind folks why in most drafts, owners chose him in
the 1st round.
Kansas City has an undeniable RBBC, with Isiah Pacheco serving
as the starter and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as his primary backup
and Jerick McKinnon as the pass-catching back. With each RB’s
role in the offense being defined, it nonetheless still makes
it difficult to go into a fantasy contest with confidence with
one of these players in your lineup. If I had to decide on a Chiefs
RB in this contest, it would be Pacheco. He should get the most
touches of the three, and with his signature hardnose running,
he could potentially break one. Start him if you must, but temper
expectations.
I’m a Detroiter who’s a recovering Lions fan. But watching Chiefs
receivers drop all those passes last week was painful to witness.
Mahomes spread the ball widely, with five players having at least
four targets. While that may help disguise some things from an
NFL perspective, spreading the rock that thinly does nothing for
fantasy. Skyy Moore was a trendy pick during draft season, with
most suggesting that a KC receiver will step up this year to take
some of the pressure off Kelce. Most figured it’d be Moore. Time
will tell if it will be him, but a starting WR playing with the
best QB in the league finishing the opener with zero catches?
Makes me wonder. And Kadarius Toney? Let him work out whatever’s
going on between his ears before ever inserting him in your lineup.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Admittedly, Trevor Lawrence should be in the NO BRAINER category.
But I wanted to mention something: While I expect Lawrence to
have his best season, he puts the ball in harm’s way too
often for my liking. He should have had three interceptions last
week if defenders had held onto the giftwrapped throws. That happens
way too much. He must clean that up if the Jags are to continue
their ascension. But there is no debate, obviously, about starting
him this week.
As for Zay Jones and Evan Engram, each had solid performances
and delivered numbers, although Engram’s stat line wasn’t eye-popping.
But for what it’s worth, he was among the leaders at the TE position
last week in receptions and receiving yards. So, there’s that.
Zay out-snapped Christian Kirk 62-to-42 last week, playing over
him in two-WR sets.
This team is stacked with offensive skill players, so there will
be some weeks where one of them will leave a lot to be desired.
Christian Kirk had that distinction last week. He finished with
only one of Lawrence’s 24 completions. This game has the
makings of a high scoring affair, which could spread the production
more evenly. It’s simply too many mouths to feed in Jacksonville,
and there will be weeks when someone is on the outside looking
in.
The 49ers mainly ran out two-receiver formations, and unsurprisingly
both Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were on the field the most.
Both played over 85 percent of offensive snaps, despite a blowout,
and Aiyuk led in targets (8 - catching all 8) while Samuel caught
5 on 7 targets and added 2 rushes. Despite the Rams surprising
victory over the Seahawks in Week 1, their defense was completely
gutted during the offseason, and the secondary losses headed by
Jalen Ramsey should be great news for both Aiyuk and Samuel. Aiyuk
(129 yards and 2 TD) had the bigger day in Week 1, but Samuel’s
ability to produce in both the passing and running game might
make him a bit better value in a game where the Niners are heavy
favorites. You really can’t go wrong firing up either one as WR2
this week, though.
McCaffrey dominated the backfield snaps (58) in Week 1. That
could change at any moment, as Mitchell saw a fair amount of action
when he and McCaffrey were both healthy in 2022, but it would
be wise to see it happen in 2023 before believing it. Especially
after Mitchell’s quiet day – just 10 snaps and 5 touches
- despite the favorable conditions of a blowout win versus Pittsburgh.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Van Jefferson’s 93% snap count easily led Rams receivers, but
he did not turn out to be Matthew Stafford’s favored target, or
even close. Instead, it turned out to be Rams 5th round rookie
Puka Nacua. As a matter of fact, Nacua’s 15 targets matched Cooper
Kupp’s highest total during his world-beating 2021 season (145-1947-16).
There’s no doubt that Kupp is an outstanding receiver, but can
we ignore the fact that Nacua seamlessly stepped into his shoes
with 10 receptions and 119 yards? It’s worth noting that Stafford’s
ability, coupled with his clear desire to have an alpha target,
has helped create the only two 1900-yard receivers in history.
Nacua is reasonably not headed for that territory, but a healthy
and refreshed Stafford seems poised to elevate Nacua into instant
fantasy relevance sans Cooper Kupp.
The Rams dominated time of possession in Week 1 versus the Seahawks,
39 minutes to 21. As such, there were both plenty of pass attempts
and rushes to go around (78 total plays of offense). While a distant
second in targets to Nacua, former 2nd rounder Tutu Atwell finished
with 8, matching Nacua with 119 receiving yards (6 receptions).
Atwell was not targeted in eight games as a rookie in 2020, and
just 35 times in his sophomore season of 2021, so it’s fair
to wonder whether Atwell’s opening week outburst is a sign
of him coming into his own or more of an outlier against an exhausted
and beatable Seahawks secondary.
The latter may be true, as Atwell recorded 108 of his 119 yards
after half time. Still, Atwell played 79% of snaps in Week 1 and
while the Rams are not likely to out-possess the 49ers this week,
Stafford may find himself throwing often to try and play catchup,
meaning there could be ample targets available for Atwell. Keep
in mind that the 49er’s secondary is more formidable than
the Seahawks, and will presumably be better rested throughout
the game. Starting Atwell this week would mean having a strong
measure of faith in his maturation as a player. If that’s
not the case for you, sit him.
As previously covered, the Rams had a cornucopia of snaps against
the Seahawks last week, and that gave all three of Matthew Stafford,
Cam Akers and Kyren Williams desirable opportunities to produce.
While Stafford looked good, he was only able to turn 38 pass attempts
and 3 rushes into 14.5 fantasy points, and Akers was completely
shut down by the Seahawks front-7, managing just 29 yards despite
a league-leading 22 carries (he did salvage his day somewhat with
a TD). Kyren Williams was the only one of the three to make fantasy
football noise, turning 15 rushes and 2 targets into 54 yards
and 2 touchdowns. Still, the Rams only produced 92 yards on 40
rushes, and the 49ers stiff defense is unlikely to be any kinder,
nor present the red zone opportunities that made Willams’
day worthwhile against the Seahawks. It’s likely going to
be a tough day for all three of these men, and neither Akers nor
Williams can be counted on to see even 10 touches this week.
The Giants had a head of steam for about 2 minutes, and then
they were subsequently steamrolled by the Cowboys for the final
58 minutes of last week’s game. There’s enough talent
on the offensive side of the football (and plenty on the defensive
side) to believe Week 1’s result was due to the quality
of their opponent and somewhat merely that of an aberration. The
good news for Giants is they should be far better this week.
In terms of NFL talent, the Cardinals are arguably the polar
opposite of the Cowboys – especially with Kyler Murray out of
action and 2020 1st rounder LB Isaiah Simmons traded late in the
preseason to the G-men. Arizona did hang in against Washington,
but despite Sam Howell repeatedly handing the Cardinals opportunities
(6 sacks taken, 2 turnovers), the Commanders still walked away
with a 20-16 victory and Howell finished with a Top 12 fantasy
performance (19.2 points). Daniel Jones is far more polished than
Howell and should be in great shape for a big rebound game.
Darren Waller made it through the Giants’ brutal Week 1 both
unscathed and as the Giants target leader (3 receptions on 5 targets).
Logan Thomas saw 8 targets against the gutted Cardinal defense,
and had it not been for a drop he would have walked away with
a strong 5 reception performance despite the inaccuracy of Howell.
Waller is a superior talent to Thomas, of course, and he should
both be a benefactor of, and a reason for, Jones having a strong
performance.
Slayton, Parris Campbell and Isaiah Hodgins all had over a 60
percent snap rate Week 1, with Slayton and Campbell leading the
way (67% a piece). With Wan’Dale Robinson and Sterling Shepard
still recovering from injuries, these snap rates are likely to
continue. Waller is reasonably first up for targets, though, and
the Giants will likely have a run heavy approach featuring Saquon
Barkley and Daniel Jones against the rebuilding Cardinals. What
offensive opportunities remain could very well be peppered around.
Arizona’s defense is beatable enough that one of the Giants receivers
– especially deep man Slayton - could provide flex value without
a large number of targets, but it’s certainly a risky proposition.
There was a lot of buzz about Hyatt coming out of camp this summer.
Week 1’s outcome (36% of snaps, 1 target) doesn’t
mean it’s unjustified, but it is a good reminder that Hyatt
– a third round pick – will likely need time to work
his way onto the field enough to have a shot to be relevant in
fantasy football. Daniel Jones averaged 29.5 pass attempts per
game last year, and in a game where the Giants could get their
frustrations from Week 1 out of their system, it seems wise to
anticipate Jones’ targets hitting the under this week. With
all the names currently in front of him on the depth chart, there
simply isn’t enough targets for Hyatt.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
It’s virtually impossible to imagine the Cardinals being
in the positive game script very often this season, especially
while they are juggling backup quarterbacks into the starting
line up each week. That’s never a good prescription for
running back production in fantasy football, but James Conner
is one of the limited number of three-down backs in football and
carries a better floor than most. While some weeks may find him
smothered every time he catches the football (5 receptions for
8 yards), Week 1 supported the notion that he’s got a good
chance to beat his career high of 55 receptions (2018). With the
added fact that Conner is by far the best option on the rare occasions
they get into the red zone, he’s quite capable of carrying
flex value even against a vastly superior team such as the Giants.
Zach Ertz (10 targets) was Joshua Dobbs favorite target in Week
1 and Marquise Brown tied Conner for 2nd with 5 targets. Brown
has had 100 targets or more each of the last three seasons, so
it’s likely that he and Ertz see a more even share going forward,
with Brown presumably eclipsing Ertz as age continues to take
it’s toll on the veteran TE and the role for Trey McBride’s expands.
In the meantime, Dobbs seems intent to check down as often as
possible, so as long as he’s the starter Ertz could be in for
a lot of action. Whether he can do much with the opportunities
(just 21 yards on 6 receptions last week) is hard to say, but
it could be enough to make him a back end TE1.
Marquise Brown’s talent isn’t elite, but it’s been good enough
to produce a 1000-yard season (2021), and he’s been a respectable
flex option over the previous 3 seasons whenever healthy. Both
being on a Cardinals team that should have no choice but to throw
and lining up as the team’s WR1 are in his favor, but the quarterback
situation is not, as was evidenced by Week 1. Clayton Tune is
a gun-slinging rookie and that’s probably more suitable for Brown’s
prospects than the veteran game manager Joshua Dobbs, but it is
Dobbs who was announced the starter for Week 2. Tune could enter
at any point, though, boosting Brown’s value. Otherwise, Adoree
Jackson may erase Brown from the flex landscape.
3rd round rookie Michael Wilson’s snap rate was incredibly encouraging
– 90% - and while his 4 targets didn’t quite follow suit, one
could see better days for Wilson. Like Marquise Brown, though,
Wilson is going to be especially hamstrung by Dobbs limitations
and style of play. The rookie is not as polished as Brown, and
despite his snap rate, Wilson is likely to be 4th on the target
tree behind Brown, Ertz and Conner through the early part of his
career. That means he’ll have far more fantasy duds than studs.
Facing fellow rookie and 1st rounder Deonte Banks - one of just
two corners to be targeted at least 3 times in Week 1 and not
allow a catch - Wilson appears to be a very wise fade.
TE Trey McBride seems destined to overtake Zach Ertz at some
point, but while he caught both his targets for an efficient 23
yards, McBride’s 37% snap rate was substantially lower than
his 53% snap rate as a rookie. Some of that has to do with the
time Ertz missed last year, but it’s clear that coach Gannon
feels the need to keep a veteran like Ertz out there as often
as possible for now. Times may change, but McBride is a clear
fade in Week 2.
Week 1 saw 2022 rookie running back sensation Breece Hall play
in his first game since tearing his ACL, logging 31.5 percent
snap share behind newly-acquired veteran Dalvin Cook. While the
snap share sounds bad, the positive is that Hall looked incredibly
explosive, producing 147 total yards on just 11 touches. He ran
out of steam on a huge 83-yard run where he nearly scored or his
day would’ve looked even more impressive.
Dalvin Cook looked washed as he ran for just 33 yards on 13 carries,
which should mean more playing time for Hall going forward. Aaron
Rodgers is now out for the season, so the Jets will need the explosiveness
that Hall can provide - they can’t rely on grinding the
clock with three-yard carries from Cook if they want to win games.
Still, there’s always the possibility that the coaching
staff is still in “ease him in” mode with Hall, therefore
we need to keep expectations realistic. Look for Hall to see somewhere
between 12 to 16 touches here in Week 2, which should be enough
for him to be a solid fantasy option even against an excellent
Cowboys defense.
Former Vikings running back Dalvin Cook was the lead dog in the
Jets committee backfield in Week 1, playing on 50 percent of the
team’s offensive snaps. He saw significantly more playing time
than both Breece Hall and Michael Carter, touching the ball 16
to Hall’s 11. While he was far less effective with his touches
than Hall was, the there’s no denying that the Jets’ coaching
staff seems to trust him.
What’s concerning is that while Cook is a veteran, his
pass-blocking is subpar at best and downright awful at its worst.
That could lead to Breece Hall playing even more of the passing
downs as the season goes on, and even as early as this week.
The Jets won against a very good Bills team in Week 1, even after
Rodgers’ injury, so we can’t expect that they’re
going to completely abandon their gameplan that got them a W.
Volume is king at the running back position, therefore Cook is
someone who can still be considered as a Flex option here in Week
2.
There was hope that Aaron Rodgers could make more than one pass-catching
weapon viable for fantasy purposes in this Jets offense, but now
that New York is looking at Zach Wilson behind center again, it’s
going to be extremely tough to trust any of the team’s pass catchers
other than Garrett Wilson.
Allen Lazard saw just four targets in Week 1, catching two of
them for 46 yards, while tight end Tyler Conklin was targeted
just once, making a two-yard catch with his minimal opportunity
share.
Perhaps Zach Wilson can start to progress as a player now that
he has little competition on the depth chart, but for now this
is a passing game that fantasy managers will mostly want to avoid.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Normally a “no-brainer,” CeeDee Lamb has to be a
bit lower this week given the potential matchup against one of
the league’s best cornerbacks in Sauce Gardner. Lamb does
play out of the slot a good bit, so he could avoid Gardner on
those snaps, but it’s still something to temper expectations
about. Although Gardner gave up five receptions in Week 1, we
shouldn’t assume that he’s suddenly fallen off.
On a positive note, despite a less-than-typical 17 percent target
share, Lamb caught all four of his targets for 77 yards in Week
1. It makes sense to assume that Dallas’ overall passing
volume will be down this year, but the Week 1 game was definitely
a weird outlier where they weren’t incentivized to pass
at all. Lamb is coming off of a 156-target season, so even a decent
drop-off from that number should still result in him being one
of the 10-most-targeted players in football this season. He’s
someone who needs to remain in lineups even in difficult matchups.
Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott had some ugly fantasy production
in Week 1, but that was largely due to the game script and rainy
weather. The Cowboys got out to an early lead and their defense
just absolutely terrorized the Giants’ offense, so Prescott
wasn’t asked to do much.
Week 2 could be a bit of a different story as the Jets have a
very good defense that really punished Josh Allen in Week 1. They
gave up the fifth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
in 2022, including just 15 passing touchdowns, which tied them
with the Texans for fewest passing scores conceded.
Prescott is a solid QB2 option for Week 2, but there might be
better options on your bench or even the waiver wire in single
quarterback formats.
Wide receiver Brandin Cooks played his first game for the Cowboys
and while we know that the lack of volume meant that none of the
pass-catchers in this offense was really going to produce much,
it’s tough to not be disappointed in his four targets resulting
in just two catches for 22 yards. Worse yet, Cooks was actually
out-snapped 34 to 39 by fellow receiver Michael Gallup, which
most of us did not see coming, although again that could have
been more game script-dependent than anything so don’t hit the
panic button yet.
What is worrisome is that Cooks is dealing with a knee injury
that has kept him out of practice and while he’s expected
to play on Sunday, this is just another reason to be pushing him
down the rankings. Additionally, he could end up being lined up
against Sauce Gardner quite a bit when Lamb moves to the slot.
Week 1 was a weird game for the Cowboys offense as a whole, but
fantasy managers should be taking a wait-and-see approach when
it comes to the Dallas pass-catchers outside of CeeDee Lamb.
In Week 1, the Broncos defense allowed just 261 yards and 4.7
yards per play. The one bright spot for the Raiders offense was
the work done between Jimmy Garoppolo and Jakobi Myers. Myers
only mistake was taunting Broncos cornerback Damari Mathis, who
he torched for two touchdowns. Enter Dotson, who has thus far
in his career presented as a major touchdown threat. With Terry
McLaurin likely to command much of Patrick Surtain’s attention
and still recovering from turf toe, all eyes should be on Dotson,
who led Commanders wideouts with both 7 targets and 5 receptions
in Week 1 and will draw Mathis for this match up. In two games
with Sam Howell under center, Dotson has co-chaired with Logan
Thomas as Howell’s favorite target. It’s a small sample, but is
likely to continue this week and Dotson will be a prime candidate
to find the end zone.
The Broncos defense doesn’t have many flaws, but they were scorched
by tight ends last year, allowing the 4th most fantasy points
in the league. Yet in Week 1, even with rookie linebacker Drew
Sanders not yet ready to enter the fray (0 snaps on defense),
Denver held the combination of veteran Austin Hooper and rookie
Mike Mayers to just 1 catch for 20 yards. Which Denver-D shows
up against Logan Thomas is a fair guess. Thomas is a serviceable
but unexceptional talent, averaging 33 yards per game since 2020
and collecting just 12 touchdowns in an 8-year career. He doesn’t
have a big ceiling, especially with Howell scrambling away some
check down opportunities, and while one game doesn’t eradicate
the vulnerabilities the Broncos showed against tight ends last
year, there’s a real risk of Thomas being shut down here.
Howell got some buzz in the preseason, and one could even say
– at least from a fantasy perspective – that he lived
up to in Week 1, finishing 10th in scoring. But that was against
the Arizona Cardinals, not the Denver Broncos. A look inside the
numbers reveals that Howell was on target on just 69% of his throws
despite a rather conservative 7.5 intended air yards per pass.
Howell held the ball too long, taking 2.7 seconds in the pocket
(matching his time in the pocket during the final week last year),
and paid the price with 6 sacks. The Broncos are equipped to make
the price Howell pays for such indecisiveness and inaccuracy much
higher. It’s best to sit him.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
In Week 1, Williams usage was desirable (13 rushes and 4 receptions),
but his results were underwhelming (57 yards). Don’t be
discouraged. Javonte broke a pair of tackles and produced a whopping
3.5 yards after contact on his rushes. Meanwhile, though he produced
just 5 yards receiving, his 6 targets not just outpaced Samaje
Perine (4), but led the Broncos. Williams was involved as receiver
in both 2021 and in 2022 - before going down with an injury (22
targets in four games). He appears to be headed down that blessed
road again, even with Perine now in town.
Williams may not quite be a bell cow, but a 60/40 run share coupled
with several targets a game makes him a less game script vulnerable
than most, and a solid RB2 in what may be another back-and-forth
grind against Washington.
Jeudy is back at practice, albeit in a limited fashion, and may
be in line to play this Sunday. If he returns, he’ll be greeted
by one of the more formidable cornerback rooms in the NFL, featuring
Kendall Fuller, Benjamin St. Juste and rookie 1st rounder Emmanuel
Forbes. No wide receiver on Arizona had more than 33 yards against
the Commanders secondary in Week 1, and while Russell Wilson is
better than Joshua Dobbs, at this point it’s fair to wonder if
the gap is big enough to get a healing Jeudy even into flex territory
this week.
Week 1’s Russell Wilson looked different than 2022 Russell
Wilson in one regard – he didn’t turn over the football.
Otherwise, despite Sean Payton’s arrival, it seemed to be
the same story: lackluster production against very beatable opponents.
Wilson managed just 177 yards on 34 pass attempts. Even two touchdown
passes weren’t enough to push him beyond mid-QB2 territory
despite what was a very down week for many other NFL quarterbacks
(25% of starting QB’s scored less than 10 fantasy points).
Most alarming of all was the mere 1 rushing yard that Wilson tallied
for the game. The Commanders defense is much more imposing than
the Raiders, and Wilson doesn’t appear to have the skills
anymore to count on him in any match-up, let alone a tough one.
It’s reasonable to have some concerns about Jaylen Waddle’s
usage coming out of the Dolphins’ Week 1 victory over the
Chargers. Sure, he caught four passes for 78 yards so he certainly
didn’t tank any fantasy lineups, but the fact that he earned
just five targets on 45 pass attempts from Tua Tagovailoa is a
bit worrying. Nevertheless, we’ve seen this kind of sporadic
usage from him in the past and it’s kind of something that
fantasy managers just have to be okay with because he can also
deliver huge performances that really help deliver wins for fantasy
football.
Waddle is dealing with an oblique injury that has kept him limited
throughout practice this week, so be careful and check the pre-game
inactives, but he’s expected to play and should have a decent
matchup against a Patriots defense that gave up 14 catches to
the duo of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith in Week 1.
With De’Von Achane inactive and Jeff Wilson on the IR, Mostert
really became a bell cow back for the Dolphins in Week 1. While
he only carried the ball 10 times and caught two passes, Mostert
was on the field for 73 percent of the Dolphins’ total offensive
snaps in what turned out to be a passing game shootout against
the Chargers.
Mostert now heads into Week 2 on the injury report himself, with
a knee issue that kept him out of practice on Wednesday. Reports
are that the knee injury was more maintenance-related than anything,
though, so he should be ready to go and likely deployed again
as the team’s primary backfield weapon.
The Dolphins will likely be one of the more pass-heavy offenses
in the league this season, but Mostert is someone who has the
potential to be a solid RB2 option as long as his backfield mates
are sidelined. Unfortunately, he also has the possibility of busting
if he’s as ineffective with his touches as he was in Week
1 and fails to get into the end zone.
One of the surprise beneficiaries of the Dolphins-Chargers shootout
in Week 1 was veteran wide receiver River Cracraft. Cracraft actually
out-produced both Braxton Berrios and even Jaylen Waddle in the
game as he saw five targets, catching three of them for 40 yards
and a touchdown.
The Dolphins’ third wide receiver role is still open and
they should continue to be a pass-heavy offense, but fantasy managers
shouldn’t be looking to a player like Cracraft to be anything
more than a frustrating touchdown-stealer. He played just 40 percent
of the snaps for the Dolphins in Week 1 and has never caught more
than nine passes in a season. It can be easy to overreact based
on one game sample sizes, but this is a player to avoid.
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Patriots tight end Hunter Henry surprised many as he finished
Week 1 as the TE1 in fantasy, catching five passes for 56 yards
and a touchdown. He played 78.8 percent of snaps for the Patriots
in Week 1, while newly-acquired backup Mike Gesicki was on the
field for just 41.2 percent of snaps. Gesicki was targeted just
three times.
The tight end position is terrible right now, so finding someone
who is in competition to be his team’s target leader on
a weekly basis is great for fantasy purposes. Henry is also one
of the better goal-line weapons at the position, making him a
solid TE1, especially against the Dolphins’ defense that
gave up the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends
in 2022.
Another shocking “winner” of Week 1 was veteran wide
receiver Kendrick Bourne who saw a whopping 11 targets, catching
six of those passes for 64 yards and two touchdowns. Bourne is
currently a top-five wide receiver producer after one week.
His 11 targets were a surprise to everyone, but it’s worth considering
that he did that in a game where the Patriots surprisingly decided
to pass the ball way more than they usually do, resulting in other
receivers like Demario Douglas and JuJu Smith-Schuster each also
seeing seven targets.
Bourne was definitely the top receiver for the team in Week 1,
but there are plenty of reasons to not be overly optimistic about
his prospects going forward. For starters, tight end Hunter Henry
should continue to be the team’s primary goal-line weapon.
Bourne is unlikely to suddenly ascend into a big-time touchdown
producer, as he’s now in his seventh professional season
and has never finished with more than five touchdowns in a full
season. Additionally, the Patriots didn’t end up winning
the game against the Eagles when they tried to match them through
the air, so they may be less incentivized to lean so heavily on
their own passing game going forward.
Still, the Patriots may end up falling behind on the scoreboard
in this game and if it ends up being anything like Week 1, then
they may be willing to get into a shootout with another of the
better offenses in the league and that could lead to another decent
target share day for Bourne. He’s a risky option, but one
that could pay off.
Mac Jones was the fantasy QB2 in Week 1 on a shocking 54 pass
attempts (most in NFL). This was a far cry from his norm, as his
career average is just under 32 attempts per game. There’s
a chance that this could be the new Bill O’Brien offense
coming into play, but chances are that it was just a one-game
outlier and not something that we should be expecting going forward.
It’s reasonable to assume that the Patriots will end up
needing to pass more in this game than they would typically prefer
to, as the Dolphins showed in Week 1 that they might be the most
explosive offense in the entire league. Still, another 54-attempt
game seems unlikely. The Patriots lack weapons in the passing
game and would almost certainly prefer to get into a battle of
field position rather than try to shoot out with the Dolphins,
so don’t expect a repeat performance from Mac Jones in this
one.
Including last week’s opener, Michael Thomas has played
in 11 games since 2019 and scored three TDs. No one expects him
to get back to the 32 percent target share he enjoyed from 2019;
that player is gone. But we shouldn’t allow the memory of
how he used to dominate cloud our judgment and expectations about
him now. He can still be a fantasy asset and a startable option
on your team. It will be important to keep your expectations in
check while also realizing that Thomas now plays second fiddle
to Chris Olave.
The second-year player looked good last week. He was third on
the team in targets with six and scored the only TD through the
air. It’s best to take a wait-and-see approach with Shaheed
at this time, but with Michael Thomas’s recent bouts with
injuries, Shaheed could be in line for a huge boost in potential
if he ever gets a chance in Thomas’s absence.
The good news is Jamaal Williams was the bell cow RB last week,
getting 18 of the 19 RB carries. Opportunities equal fantasy gold,
and Williams’ role in the offense appears set. The bad news is
he didn’t do much with those touches. It will be interesting to
see how his role changes once RB Alvin Kamara returns in Week
4 after being suspended for the season’s first three games. I
suspect we will see Williams’ true value at that time, much the
same way he was productive in Detroit last year. Until then, tread
lightly with him.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Miles Sanders had a career year last season, finishing the campaign
with 1,269 yards and 11 scores, plus another two TDs through the
air. In last week’s opener, he seemed to pick up where he
left off. Nothing exciting, but we got to see his role in the
passing game. He had only 20 receptions last year in Philly, but
it looks like he might eclipse that this season playing behind
a rookie signal-caller. If Sanders can boost his receiving totals
across the board, he will solidify his status as a productive
RB2 in fantasy.
Hayden Hurst led the team in targets, receptions, and receiving
yards in last week’s opener—a notable accomplishment for any TE
on any team. Hurst should continue garnering rookie QB Bryce Young’s
attention as a safety net option in the passing game. And with
the dearth of productive TE options in fantasy, Hurst could be
a nice find in 2023.
Thielen has seen better days, that much is certain. The 33-year-old’s
2023 season got off to a whimper, tallying only two targets of
Bryce Young’s 38 pass attempts. He will have some games
this year that remind folks of his ability, but mostly he will
be relegated to your bench. Like this week.
Given the rainy weather conditions, you should probably grade
Watson’s 2023 debut on a curve. He threw for 154 yards, ran for
45, accounted for two TDs (one passing, one rushing), and tossed
an interception. While those numbers aren’t great, they were miles
ahead of what Joe Burrow was able to muster on the other side.
Watson faced the Steelers in the season finale last year, passing
for 230 yards, 2 TD, and 2 INTs in a 14-point loss. He took seven
sacks in that one as well, and you can bet TJ Watt (three sacks
in Week 1) will be looking to put him on the ground this Monday.
He’s a risk/reward selection with a likely ceiling as a low-end
QB1.
In his last five games, Njoku has totaled 12 receptions, 129
yards, and a TD, which comes out to 2.4 catches and 25.8 yards
per game. Despite that, the former first-round pick continues
to find his way into weekly rankings as a viable play. Granted,
he has some upside -- his first game with Watson led to a 7-59-1
line -- but most weeks he winds up disappointing. Until he at
least strings together a couple of noteworthy efforts, Njoku is
best left on your bench.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
With WR Diontae Johnson (hamstring) set to miss a few games,
Pickens becomes the clear lead receiver ahead of veteran Allen
Robinson. This despite Week 1 where A-Rob posted 64 yards on five
receptions compared to a 5-36-0 effort from Pickens. The second-year
wideout was considered an ascending talent coming into the season
and a popular breakout candidate, and there’s little doubt he’s
the most dangerous vertical threat on the roster. The 49ers were
able to limit him successfully. The Browns have a solid defense
of their own, but they can’t match San Francisco. Pickens had
72 yards and a touchdown the last time these teams locked up.
Pencil him in as a solid WR3.
As we wrote last week, there’s a major difference between
excelling in the preseason versus the regular season. That doesn’t
mean Pickett can’t become a capable NFL quarterback but
opening the year with San Francisco and Cleveland is a tall task
for such a young player. He passed for 195 yards and a touchdown
against the Browns in Week 18 last year, and with Johnson out
of action, you might not want to expect much more than that. He’s
not a QB1 option in primetime.
