- Carl Sagan

Every year since 2011, I have concluded my preseason writing with a bold predictions column. I am not a "hot take" guy, so I will only write about occurrences that could be possible if things go right for each player below. I do not care about shock value. At most, it may only take me being a little more optimistic about a player (than I was on the Big Board) to make it a bold prediction. What I will guarantee with the first eight below is that I will explain how it could happen.

None of these bold predictions is much of a departure from the Big Boards, so I am sorry to disappoint you if that is what you were seeking. Either way, I care more about the process and the logic than anything else.

1. J.J. McCarthy will finish as a top-12 quarterback.

I laid out my case for McCarthy last week, but let us go a bit deeper. HC Kevin O'Connell has made Sam Darnold, Kirk Cousins, Joshua Dobbs and Nick Mullens look good for stretches of time during his time in Minnesota. That is impressive in and of itself. Each of O'Connell's three offenses in Minnesota has ranked no worse than sixth in the league in passing yards or passing touchdowns. The fact that he has done it with those quarterbacks is even more impressive. Whether that success is the product of O'Connell's play-calling or Justin Jefferson's dominance does not really matter here; it is likely both men deserve their fair share of credit.

Speaking of Jefferson, he is the alpha of what may be the best group of weapons that any NFC quarterback has available to him this season. (Joe Burrow probably has the best group of pass-catchers among NFL quarterbacks.) Yes, Jordan Addison will miss the first three games of the season due to suspension, but the Vikings' Aug. 27 trade for Adam Thielen should help them get by until their No. 2 is ready. In the meantime, T.J. Hockenson is more than capable of being the second option. Never mind the fact that Aaron Jones is one of the better receiving backs in the league. When the cast is finally healthy and together again (hopefully) in Week 4, look out.

That leads me to my final point. It would be one thing if McCarthy just had the best supporting cast. He may also have a top-five offensive line in front of him and a pair of running backs behind him who complement each other well. McCarthy is also an underrated athlete who could potentially run for 400 yards. When managers look for a quarterback to lead their fantasy team, it is hard to do better than an above-average athlete with arguably the best supporting cast in the league, a very good play-caller to support him and a top-five offensive line to protect him.

Last but not least, the major reason Darnold is no longer with the team has to do with how poorly he reacted to pass-rush pressure. While he is not exactly immobile, he is also not a huge run threat. Dating back to his time in college, McCarthy was usually very good under pressure. He also ran for at least 50 yards five times in his college career. He is not an elite runner by any means, but he is capable of breaking off a long run.

2. Jared Goff will finish outside the top 15 quarterbacks.

In three seasons under former OC Ben Johnson, Goff never finished lower than QB11. In Johnson's last two seasons with Detroit, Goff posted back-to-back QB7 finishes. Why should we expect that to change in 2025? Johnson's exit is probably the primary reason why it will likely happen, but there is more to it than that.

The primary problem with losing sharp play-callers is not only the creativity they usually seem to possess, but also their innate feel for when a play should be called. New OC John Morton may develop that over time, but it is unreasonable to believe that he can call a game as well as Johnson when he has not done so in the NFL since 2017. Another issue for Goff is the changes that took place in front of him, most notably the retirement of C Frank Ragnow and the departure of RG Kevin Zeitler in free agency. With last year's starter at left guard (Graham Glasgow) moving to center, there is an argument to be made that the Detroit offensive line will experience a drop-off in play at all three interior line positions.

The last thing I will mention here is probably the least important (as it relates to this bold prediction), but Morton has said repeatedly he intends to include more vertical shots in his offense. While that is a great thing for the Lions in theory, Goff is not the best quarterback to execute that kind of offense - especially if the offensive line struggles to hold up. Detroit's supporting cast gives Goff a chance for a fourth straight QB1 finish, but it is not something I would bet on happening.

3. Kenneth Walker will finish inside the top 10 running backs on a points-per-game basis.

For a second straight season, I am aboard the KWIII train and making a bold prediction about him. To be clear, I was right about him being a top-12 scorer on a points-per-game basis last year. However, the thing most people seem to fixate on is how many games he missed (six). That is fair to a point, but sometimes we have to be able to accept RB1 production in the box it comes in and not ask for a fancier (or sturdier) box. The thing I will say this year that I did not say last year is that managers should do everything in their power to make sure they lock up Zach Charbonnet, regardless of whether that means they have to burn a seventh-round draft choice in late drafts to do so.

The reason to buy into Walker again is simple: he is good. (Per Pro Football Focus, 78.7 percent of his rushing yards came after contact - the seventh-highest rate at the position - and he led all running backs with 0.40 broken tackles per carry. His 0.42 avoided tackles per attempt last season were the most in PFF’s 19 years of statistics for all running backs with at least 50 carries.) The addition of rookie LG Grey Zabel and the continued health of LT Charles Cross and RT Abe Lucas give Walker more help up front than he had at any point in 2024.

Last but not least, new OC Klint Kubiak will make running the ball - specifically outside zone - a priority in Seattle. Walker is a big-play back with good vision and anticipation, so the scheme should be a great fit for him. Yes, he will likely lose regular work to Charbonnet. With that said, Charbonnet is more of an inside-the-tackles runner, so I question if Kubiak will consider a 60-40 split if/when both players are healthy very often.

4. Saquon Barkley will fail to finish inside the top 10 on a total points basis.

My concern with Barkley has little to do with his talent or supporting cast. My concern with him is almost solely based on his usage last year, something I discussed in my first Big Board article a couple of weeks ago. Allow me to rehash what I said then:

There have been 28 instances in league history where a running back has handled at least 450 touches in a season (including playoffs). I want to focus on the six most recent instances, beginning with LaDainian Tomlinson in 2002. (In the interest of full disclosure, only two backs since 2006 have eclipsed 450 touches - none since 2014.) The average fall-off from one regular season to the next was as follows:

3.7 games missed, 166 fewer rush attempts, 829 fewer rushing yards, 8.5 fewer rushing touchdowns (six players)

With Tomlinson excluded, those numbers look substantially worse:

4.4 games missed, 187 fewer rush attempts, 987 fewer rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns (five players)

My friend, Dr. Jesse Morse, did a bit of a deep dive into the history of 450-touch running backs, if you care to learn more about it.

Allow me to be very clear about this: Barkley is a physical freak with a great offensive line and a good run threat at quarterback (Jalen Hurts) next to him, so he is arguably in the best position of all the players from the 450 club to have another great year. History tells us the average drop-off in touches the following year is 201 (not including LT). The primary difference between Tomlinson and the others is that his 450-plus season came at age 23. The other five players had their high-usage season at age 26 or later. Barkley will turn 29 around the Super Bowl. Every back in the club other than Tomlinson missed at least one game the following season and three missed at least four.

5. Jordan Mason will lead the Vikings in rushing, amass 1,000 total yards and score at least eight touchdowns.

Minnesota surprisingly ran the ball 457 times in 2024 despite only having one back it trusted in Aaron Jones, who unsurprisingly handled 55.8 percent of the team's carries. While Jones did yeoman's work with a career-high 322 touches in 2024 (including the playoffs), he and the Vikings were awful running the ball near the goal line. On 33 carries inside the 10, the Vikings ran for 11 yards and five touchdowns. On 16 rush attempts inside the 5, Minnesota lost one yard and scored those same five touchdowns. Even in an area where it is difficult for players to average even one yard per carry, those are unacceptable numbers and averages for a team with Minnesota's offensive weaponry.

The Vikings did two things in the offseason to address this issue. They replaced the entire interior part of their line, drafting LG Donovan Jackson in the first round and signing C Ryan Kelly and RG Will Fries. It is hard to argue against each one being an upgrade over their predecessor (Blake Brandel, Garrett Bradbury and Ed Ingram, respectively). Those additions should take what was a middling front five and make it one of the best five offensive lines in the league. The second thing Minnesota did was trade for Mason, who ranked sixth in the league in missed tackles forced per attempt in 2024 (0.22) among players who had at least 100 carries. He will be the primary goal-line back in what should be a very good offense that will want to run the ball as much as possible while J.J. McCarthy adapts to the pro game.

The Vikings' defense also figures to be very stingy again, which makes it even more likely they will lean more heavily on the run in 2025 than they have in any of HC Kevin O'Connell's first three seasons. Last but not least, Minnesota cannot afford to work the 30-year-old Jones nearly as much this year as it did in 2024. The Vikings likely would prefer to run the ball at least as much in 2025 as they did last season while keeping Jones around or below 200 carries and maintaining his role in the passing game. That means Mason will probably push for 225 rush attempts. Perhaps the best way to think about Jones and Mason is Minnesota's discount version of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. Neither Jones nor Montgomery is the equal of their Detroit counterpart, but the Vikings now have the kind of line that helped the Lions outmuscle defenses in recent years.

6. Calvin Ridley will finish as a top-20 fantasy receiver.

All we really need to know about this one is that Ridley finished as the WR27 last season while catching passes from Will Levis and Mason Rudolph behind a poor offensive line. If you think his final numbers in 2025 will look anything like last year's 64-1,017-4 line on 120 targets, you are probably about 10 percent off on his catch rate (was 53.3) last year, at least 15-20 catches short and maybe 100-200 yards off. It is hard to think of one important area that has not improved for Ridley since last season ended, except for maybe the fact that he is now 30 years old instead of 29.

Why am I so confident this will happen? Let's look at the analytics. Tennessee ranked 28th in the league in off-target percentage (20.4) and catchable throw percentage (72.1), which only highlights how bad of an offensive environment Ridley played in last season. No. 1 overall pick Cam Ward cannot be expected to have the same kind of rookie year that C.J. Stroud did in 2023 or Jayden Daniels did in 2024, but he will undoubtedly lift the Titans out of the quarterback basement and put them somewhere around league average at worst. Tennessee also addressed its offensive line in a big way during the offseason and should be no worse than middle-of-the-pack in terms of pass protection. Last but not least, Elic Ayomanor gives the team a realistic threat at "X" receiver and the running game should be better because of the upgrades up front, which should take some of the defensive focus off Ridley. No one should expect a repeat of Ridley's 90-1,374-9 breakout in 2020, but 2025 should easily be his best season since then.

7. Three rookie receivers will finish inside the top 30 at their position.

As we stand here a few days away from the start of the season, it has become accepted that Tetairoa McMillan will be a regular fantasy starter. It is hoped that Emeka Egbuka can be that and Travis Hunter will play enough (and stay healthy long enough) to become that.

The case for McMillan: During Diontae Johnson's time as the X receiver in Carolina last year (roughly Weeks 1-6), he averaged just over nine targets. As Bryce Young's primary target on a horrible offense in 2023, 33-year-old Adam Thielen earned 137 targets - an average of just over eight per game. Thielen is a fine route-runner who could probably beat NFL defensive backs for another two or three years and Johnson used to create as much separation as any receiver in the league, but let's not pretend either one is now what McMillan is. Yes, there will probably be a stretch early in the season where McMillan struggles to adapt to physical coverage, but how long will that honestly be a problem for a 6-4, 219-pound player who has consistently been lining up opposite Jaycee Horn in practice all summer?

McMillan is highly underrated after the catch and boasts an amazing catch radius. He will be heavily targeted. Remember that a bad Carolina offense for most of last year still managed to throw 547 times. Jalen Coker and Xavier Legette will likely combine for at least 150 this year (and that assumes Coker returns from IR as soon as he is eligible), Ja'Tavion Sanders will probably draw at least 70 himself and the running backs will push for 100. Even if we set aside another 100 for players like David Moore, Trevor Etienne, Rico Dowdle and Tommy Tremble, that still leaves roughly 130 targets for T-Mac. Considering his size will make him a popular red zone target for Young, I am willing to bet McMillan can score at least seven or eight times. With a catch rate that should settle in around 63 percent (considering how good his hands are), it means we should expect about 80 catches from the No. 8 overall pick as a rookie.

The other two players making the top 30 receivers are what makes this slightly bold because I have Travis Hunter at WR27 at the moment and Emeka Egbuka at WR31. (I am willing to bet most do not have Egbuka that high, even with the recent news about Chris Godwin.) I made the case for Egbuka a couple of weeks ago, so I will keep it short with him. As far as I'm concerned, the only thing that will keep the Ohio State product out of the top 30 is if Godwin is somehow relatively close to 100 percent by November. It is clear from the reports coming out of Tampa that his recovery is not going nearly as quickly as the Bucs had hoped (or expected), although it was - to be clear - a very serious injury. If Egbuka ends up taking on Godwin's slot role for at least half of the season, there is a very real chance he could be a fantasy WR1 for a stretch. The only question in my mind is how long it will take before the Bucs turn back to Godwin in the slot. And what happens if things are going so well for Egbuka there that new OC Josh Grizzard does not want to tinker with it? Or what happens if "a few weeks" for Godwin becomes Thanksgiving? A bet on Egbuka this year is somewhat a bet on Godwin not returning to his usual self until 2026.

The player I am the least certain about making this bold prediction come true is Hunter. It is not a talent issue. It is not a scheme issue. It is not a target share issue. Hunter should get as much as he wants in this offense and HC Liam Coen is probably one of the best play-callers to get the most out of Hunter. My major concern with Hunter is durability and endurance. (When I talk about endurance, I am not talking about his ability to play 100 snaps in a game. I am talking about the likelihood he can do it week after week at a high level. If virtually every other rookie who has played the game begins to hit the "wall" around Thanksgiving logging roughly 50 plays per game, what makes anyone think Hunter will not hit it faster playing almost 100?) This is a player who missed eight games over the 2022 and 2023 seasons. He managed to play every game during his Heisman Trophy-winning season in 2024, but he had to leave a couple of them early due to injury.

With that said, let's suppose for now that Hunter moonlights at cornerback every other series or only plays on third-and-long plays for the first month or even the first two months. How much would that change our view of him being a potential fantasy stud? Let me be clear about what I am saying. If Jacksonville can resist the temptation of having Hunter trying to save the defense every time its back against the wall, then there is a decent chance fantasy managers will be able to get WR2 production out of him for most of the season. The reason he usually lasts until the sixth round in fantasy drafts is that we have no idea if the Jaguars can find the right balance. My current WR27 ranking for him is essentially a compromise of the aforementioned factors and probably a median outcome for him.

8. Evan Engram will finish as a top-five tight end.

Engram is another player I have been discussing for the last month or more and someone I discussed in some detail here. This is a player HC Sean Payton targeted in free agency and immediately identified as his "Joker." As a reminder, a "Joker" - in Payton's own words - is a tight end or running back who has elite rare receiving skills. Some of his players who have earned that tag over the years include Reggie Bush, Darren Sproles, Alvin Kamara, Jimmy Graham and Jeremy Shockey. Need proof? He is just one season removed from a 114-catch season.

It would appear that many conveniently forgot the last nugget once Engram seemingly confirmed a narrative in 2024 that was his downfall early in his career, durability. With that said, last season was the first time in three years that he missed a game and the first time since 2019 that he did not play in at least 15. In his two healthy seasons with the Jaguars, he posted at least 73 catches and four touchdowns. Even with how poorly things went for him in Jacksonville in 2024, Engram was on a 17-game pace for 121 targets and 89 catches. Only three tight ends last season had more targets and catches.

Engram now finds himself in a much better offensive environment (more accurate quarterback, better scheme, better offensive line, etc.) where he is no worse than the No. 2 option in the offense. I don't care about his career 9.9 yards per catch mark; this is a big-play tight end who has typically been limited either by the creativity of his play-caller or the offensive environment for most of his eight years as a pro. I have him penciled in for right around 80 catches and six touchdowns this season, but it would not surprise me if he pushes for 90 catches and eight touchdowns this season. Assuming 10 yards per catch on 90 receptions and six scores, he would finish with roughly 216 PPR fantasy points. We have to go back to the 2015 season for the last time that a tight end scored that many points and did not finish inside the top five at his position.

Bonus bold predictions:

• Christian McCaffrey will once again finish as the overall RB1.

• Kyle Monangai will be Chicago's leading rusher and best fantasy running back option.

• Davante Adams will score more fantasy points than Puka Nacua.

• Demario Douglas will finish with at least 80 catches.